What's Happening to the Bike Industry in 2024? *The Hard Truth*
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- čas přidán 27. 08. 2024
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Here is the great article on the cycling industry right now from a supplier POV, its always good because as retailers we assume that's its just us taking the hit, but we negate to look at it from other perspectives. bicycleretailer.com/opinion-analysis/2024/06/07/vosper-industry-still-struggling-record-levels-inventory-there%E2%80%99s-plenty
lets go china brand bike companys!
The info is confusing in this article. It must be the small brands discounting their product at 40%. I know if Trek, Specialized, or Giant were selling their bikes to retailers at 40% off we’d see much better deals. I think Specialized would dump their 2022 or 2021 new old stock in the ocean before discounting that heavily.
@@Sweetskis I'm not "in the loop", but I don't understand this either. If inventory were large on bikes people wanted now, regular market prices would be down, but they're not, they're up. Also, there wouldn't be so many things unavailable. I do see lots of sales, but if the prices were too high to begin with, sale price may still be a hard sell.
@@Sweetskis Big brands have way too much overhead for 40% discounts... They have huge offices, warehouses, lots of employees, advertising/sponsorships (a huge chunk of change). Even if Specialized is producing bikes for the same cost as smaller tiers (Polygon, Quintana Roo, Fuji, etc), they can't sell them low without losing money because they are a bloated marketing machine.
Customers not coming in. What about E-bikes? No one seems to see what I see - E-bikes on every bike trail, on the roads. People with a bit of money often bought good quality bicycles. Now they bike e-bikes. This could be a longer-term trend than just selling off excess inventory.
Whats happening is very simple, ridiculously inflated prices.
It’s insane
truth
The shareholders pushing harder and harder to keep getting their dividends, while everyone else toils to make it happen. Covid took a dent to corporate profits, and the great inflation had more to do with 'catching up' than with the war in Ukraine.
Now, there's this Karl guy who would have something to say about this whole mess...
Facts re: prices
After printing 10 trillion $ in 4 years bike prices are never going back to what they were pre pandemic. The USD has lost so much value with the rampent money printing.
This isn’t inflation it’s corporate greed. They have more inventory than demand and yet still overcharging.
Then on TOP of that, they don't want to discount bikes that are UNSOLD. To your point its GREED
Groceries high due to corporate greed?
@@jered2177 literally yes…… the costs rose because of fundamentals originally. In fact, on an earnings call I believe with either Coca Cola or pepsi-the CEO or person leading the call had even alluded to the cost pressure subsiding and them seeing strong demand at the prices so for the profit margins they weren’t going to drop them back. The reason costs are high and continue to be-is because consumers aren’t saying enough is enough and cutting back. They pay what it costs. These companies aren’t gonna change until people stop paying what they’re ripping you off for.
@davidkaplan5517 oh I figured it was devaluing of the US dollars that they print and send over seas to fund Ukraine war and Israel's attack on Palestinians.
@davidkaplan5517 oh I figured it was from printing money to fund Ukraine war and to Israel to attack Gasa. It devalues US dollar
I think the cycling industry is losing new cyclists. Entry level 3k - 4k 😳
I mean there are used alternatives to buy at that price points but also I just think that the entry level consumer is not buying bikes or splurging like they use to
Losing casual participants to paddle ball? (communities around the US of course)
I see a growth in non-competitive cycling in my area. Also ebikes are visible in a big way. Speaking to seasoned road cyclists - even they have more fear of dangers from inattentive motorists. Got to imagine that's on just about everyone's mind.
My Cannondale Synapse 105 alloy was $1250 in 2007. I guess with inflation that would now be $1,880. I don't think you're getting a mechanical 105 alloy bike today for that, other than the Canyon Endurace 7, which upgrades on my Cannondale in two key respects, Shimano-branded disc brakes as opposed to house-brand rim ones, and a decent DT Swiss wheelset as opposed to the flexy, skinny, low-spoke Shimano ones my Synapse came with. But that Canyon is almost a pound heavier than my Synapse in its original configuration, two pounds heavier now that my Synapse has lighter and better wheels than it did. Worth pointing out most sizes of that Endurace 7 are out of stock right now. So where there's value, there's demand.
i got a 2020 epic hardtail for $800 pretty much brand new some chick broke up with her BF
@@m.talley1660 E-Bikes must be a huge impact on sales. All I see is electric bicycles.
They all have their frames etc made in China/Taiwan and charge prices like they have PhD Engineers working assembly in Switzerland.
😂 this is so true
Thats what elite business schools teach their MBA students.
The major costs are in marketing and distribution, that’s why Poseidon can afford to sell a pretty decent gravel bike for $899. Good enough spec, no frills, no big ad budgets, direct to consumer
Yep, been riding for a very long time when frames where made by the italians,hand brazed now they are made all in china with italian & other companies sticker names with premium prices,now even the cheap china cycling frames are expensive
lmao
Totally agree that older bikes on the low end used to look so good compared their higher end counterparts. I still love the look of my 2012 giant defy 5.
they all looked pro bikes
You know what is crazy is the price of integrated stem/bar. The majority besides the china ones are knocking on the door of $1000. 🤯 and c'mon. $3k for a dt swiss gravel wheelset?! No way!
Canyon's are more like 400, but still... Chicarbon is more like 100-200
Record levels of inventory but yet prices to consumers don't reflect it.
Smells like bankruptcy to me.
Why I stay old school. Bars are like 50 bucks, less for a stem, and DT shifters are cheap.
High end Chinese brand bar/stem combos are also high 300s to 400+ which is wild. Panda podium has some of them
Yep,1K for a cockpit that will need swapping out after a fit adjustment or for a new buyer...crazy
Carbon fiber disc brakes electronic shifting outta my league. Just ride my aluminum bikes and wheels.
as long as your out there riding
I smash people all the time with my CAAD. My 2015 poor man’s race bike is lighter and stiffer than the crap being made today.
I think the big pre-season orders, particularly during Covid, is what got us in this situation. Shops ordering like the demand wasn’t going to slow down, then they can’t pay their bills and/or turn down orders, leaving inventory with the manufacturer.
And the industry needs to understand one of our biggest competitors are places that also sell cereal and bread. The gap between what you find in a grocery store and the base model bike in a shop has gotten bigger and bigger. When we opened in 2018 we had a bike from Fuji for $375. Specialized starts at $630 for a Rockhopper and $700 for a Roll. The overwhelming majority of people who are buying bikes will never consider and “entry level” $2,000 bike. Manufacturers need to get realistic with base model bikes.
same here, literally companies were saying we are taking orders and biggest orders take priority, this was told to us by every rep and they said you can cancel at any time just for these sales reps to make there commission and for these companies to take those orders to the bank and get as much cash possible for bike orders.. then once demand stoped orders were left
agreed I use a poseidon X for commuting and fun for the price you get a good bike that you can upgrade over time
Went to a bike shop last weekend and the cheapest bike was $2,799.....later
we got some allez on the floor for 1200
@@GCPerformance18not the sprint comp. 😂😂😂
Poseidon makes good gravel bikes for under a $1,000 I use one
What's happening is the riders aren't going to buy a 10K bike, no matter how hard you try and force them to. What's the alternative? Going directly to the manufacturer. Thus is why WinSpace is making a literal killing in the business. Other Chinese brands who are direct knock-offs of the major brands are doing likewise. Who's the loser in all this? The LBS who has to put the mess together and make it work.
Hourly labor is hourly labor. Good mechanics love a big billable mess.
@@ElevatedAgenda My local shops are always crying about not being able to find mechanics. That's because they pay less than $20/hr.
@@ElevatedAgenda Not one of the mechanics I spoke with would love to put together your jigsaw puzzle. Or if they did, it's going to be way expensive. You could buy a high quality box of bicycle tools for less.
@@jamesmckenzie3532 Generally, I do my own wrenching. When I'm too busy, I find the best and pay them a high rate for it. I don't look for a bargain. I understand how technical good work is and I don't want someone cutting corners or cursing me under their breath as they work on my expensive stuff. It always works out well.
@@jamesmckenzie3532 I generally do my own wrenching. When I'm too busy and need something quickly, I find the best and pay them a high rate. I know how technical the work can get and I don't want someone who barely cares cutting corners on my expensive stuff. It always works out well.
The price of new bikes are a total joke. I ride a mint condition 2003 trek madone 5.5 its full dura ace with a few carbon upgrades like bars etc. It weighs 8kgs and stands me in for around £1500 ❤
Same, I rebuilt a 2004 CAAD4 with a 5yo ultegra group set. Total price was around 600. A real head turner, especially when I drop them.
Yeah new bikes are a ripoff. Bike frame and parts lasts for ages. There are lots of second hand mint conditions in the market much cheaper than new bikes.
What’s the difference etc between a $10,000 bike, and a $500 bike?
$9,500.
Buy used save the difference. I purchased a used Tarmac SL3 last spring & used Roubaix this spring. Upgraded a bunch of parts and still saved thousands vs. buying new. I took the used parts and sold them on Ebay. If i break either bike, I'm not out allot of cash.
Yep, I have a bunch of Supersix Evos and each one I can flip for double or triple what I paid. I'm gonna ride em forever
The SL3 is almost a 20 year old design. This is not a serious comment.
Add two to the list of “things that didn’t happen”
Selling and flipping those stuff for profit? lol you folks should be thankful if you can even get someone to pay you half of what you got it for
I’ve heard some shops are refusing to service the Direct-2-Consumers. Honestly, I don’t blame them when you hear about the drama they get into with customers expecting them to replace parts and seek warranty from a manufacturer who is trying to carve them out.
Seriously, buying used or buying smaller brands or even last years models that are on sale is probably the right move.
Personally I don’t care about having the lasted upgraded models and I prefer custom frames anyway. So I just seek frame builders and smaller component companies.
yea I know shops who are still not servicing direct to consumer bikes, I dont know what it is but I have done videos on my thoughts of d2c bikes and I think that drew more attention to me for that so people bring me there bikes for it lol
imagine taking your car in for repairs and the shop refuses because you didn't buy your car there. maybe these shops pay their mortgage with arrogance
@@ToddChaddingtonEsq😂💀 for real, that’s really wild. Now if I hear a bike shop owner complaining about how hard times are first thing I’m going to ask is “you arnt refusing to service bikes that wernt bought through retail are you?” Because it’s impossible for me to have sympathy for that. How can you refuse to money from someone who wants to pay you for your labor?
@@ultrastoat3298 i can get whatever product i want shipped to me immediately; you need to come up with a good reason to get me to go into your store and pay (via your margin) a premium to do so
this is only true about ebikes
Always appreciate your content Grant, wish you the best for the remainder of the year
Thank you very much for this!!
You, Sir, are telling the truth. Thank you!! 10,000 $ bike is in stock but 3,000 $ is not,so the purchaser pays 5,000 $. Yup i noticed that too.
:)
I have numerous bikes all 10-40 years old and still ride 5-8000 miles a year. They do not have disc brakes, tubeless tires, electronic shifting, aero frames, hidden cables, integrated bar and stems, wide tires, 12+ speeds and I get along just fine. There is no reason that I can see that all these features are needed to enjoy riding your bike and most just jack up the price. Most people will never race and they should be able to still make nice bikes that are fun to ride for much less than companies want these days. Targeting a small part of your potential audience with high priced overkill bikes make no business sense.
Same. This is a key point you've made, the bike industries product has moved away from what the normal non-pro rider needs. Its a concept of 'unnecessary performance' where the industry is trying to sell an amateur all the sharp end racing performance when all they really need is a reliable and nice riding bike, which could be had at a fraction of the r&d and engineering cost. I've been riding 40 years, used to work in the industry and wouldn't spend my money on any of these mid-range mainstream brand offerings- I'd rather find a top condition high end frame from 10 years ago and build it up myself the way I like it, don't need anything more.
absolutely true especially for road biking
The high mileage cyclists I see often don't ride modern bikes but durable easy to maintain bikes. They do fine riding long audaxes of 600km and more on them (200km is my limit).
Re the higher prices of entry-level bikes, I definitely wouldn't give companies the excuse of higher costs like rent, wages, interest rates, etc. Let's call it what it is--- bad planning and knee-jerk reactions. It's basic for any company when sales/volume are down compared to previous years. The primary way to keep profits up in the face of less sales/volume is to increase pricing for the same product. Here, bike companies thought there was no end to the pandemic high and had crazy forecasted numbers which were never realistic. It was just bad planning/forecasting (assuming they actually forecasted). Sorry to say this, but reality is that the bike industry overall- throughout the entire supply chain-- is not very sophisticated from a business perspective and now everyone is scrambling.
Greed???
@@mikespadafora9077 Totally. Companies are trying to maintain the crazy profits they had during the pandemic, not pre-pandemic, which means raising pricing more for the same product disproportionate to their actual costs, even factoring in higher acquisition costs. In the end, no company likes to make less profit than they did in recent memory-- even if the current environment doesn't warrant it. For many companies in many different industries, inflation is a convenient excuse to raise pricing today as they know some customers will expect it-- justified or not. Not unlike car makers and $tealers in the last few years as the average price of cars has skyrocketed while buyers are given 72-month loans which make them underwater in a year or two.
The bottom line is there is more profit margin on higher-end bikes, and if that means less sales volume, the higher margin on the fewer bikes can sustain a certain min profitability for these companies. It's as if bike manufacturers know non-cyclists won't be buying new bikes for a long time. This is what car manufacturers have done in the last 5 years by discontinuing cheap small- and mid-sized sedans and hatchbacks due their low profitability and now only offer expensive SUV's, etc, with skyrocketing median new-car pricing-- enabled by cheap money and 72-month loans. I'm surprised bike manufacturers haven't tried direct-to-consumer sales with subsidized cheap financing on their more-expensive bikes.
Cities need to do more to encourage people to ride bicycles. Safe protected bike lanes and trails are needed so adults and children can ride safely. Speak up for bicycles in your community. Bicycles make life and cities better. Ask your local transportation planner and elected officials to support more protected bike lanes and trails. Children should be riding a bicycle to school and not be driven in a minivan.
Agree, but where do you live? Most western cities are experiencing crime (bicycle theft) rates are far outpacing the police crime clear up rates.
@@primafacie6442 Bicycles have always been stolen. Cities and businesses need to do more to provide safe places to lock and store bicycles. More bicycles need to come with trackers installed. Apple air tags can help find a stolen bicycle.
Tbh in the 1990's when I worked at a bike/ski shop we had a demo of some expensive bikes in store but not really a lot of inventory, when someone wanted something 1k+ we ordered it, and it took a fkin while 😂
Nearly every bike I've bought was something that had to be ordered and often they were out of stock. It seemed every year they would sell out of inventory by summer then it became a waiting game for the next model year. I don't see that as new.
Same here... We had maybe 10 bikes over $1k at my shop. But....bikes were also a lot cheaper back then. A flagship road bike with 7700 was maybe $2500. Most of the bikes we sold were that $500-1000 mark, which actually were decent bikes... That price would still get you a mountain bike with LX components or road bike with 105.
As a long time consumer of bicycles (45 years), I really do wish the best for retail shops. But my reality is my career wasn’t exactly lucrative and i always had to either buy used bikes or save up for years to get a new one. Also had to sell 1 bike to get a new one. I wish I could just walk into a local shop, chit chat about bikes, then walk out with a new one. I just can’t. Therefore I scour the internet for used bikes or mail order shops. I am capable of doing my own maintenance but in the past 10 years have been choosing to take my bike to the local shop so I can at least give some support. It’s up to the manufacturers and the shops to figure this out, not the consumers. If I could get the same experience with competitive pricing and selection at my local shop that I get with online sources, I would gladly support my shop 100%.
When was the last time you saw a tv commercial about the benefits of cycling?
I can't even remember the last time I watched TV.
@@GB-ez6ge What is a TV 😅
Very good point about the 2012 vs 2024 road bike style and probably something that holds back sales. I'm sure there are plenty of consumers who really like the look of modern bikes, but those dropped seat stays, disc brakes and proprietary finishing kit seem to have resulted in a generic look and a race to the bottom in other respects.
This is not bike industry issue.. it's as simple as this.
Prices have gone up on everything i.e. inflation.
However wages have not "inflated".
The original definition of inflation, Bolshevik usury fee.
yea I made a video about this too this is a world economy thing
Not really true. Wages in the US are now going up faster than inflation by quite a bit. Bike prices specifically have gone up WAY faster than inflation or wages. I looked up what would beat my 105-ten-speed 2007 Cannondale Synapse for value ($1,250 in fall 2007 price, equivalent to $1,880 now), and came up with precisely one item -- the Canyon Endurace 7. Everything else seems to be nudging upper $2K to $3K.
@@danielbliss1988 yeah same in the UK.... however in the UK all the wage growth is at the bottom end of wages, not middle or upper middle where most the road cycling demographic sits.
@@danielbliss1988 Also it's pretty well documented that wages have not kept in line with inflation for many generations now, so my statement is nothing new really.
This is SO TRUE. I went into my local shop needing to replace my aging Cervelo. The bike I wanted was months away from arriving. When I found one I liked, there were certain parts that wouldn't be in until year's end. Finally, when I settled on a bike they had there at the shop, they weren't willing to discount it at ALL. Why would I pay full price for a bike you CAN'T sell? Made no Sense
I bought my first road bike in 2009. Good looking "aero" carbon bike with great paintjob. 105. $US2000 rrp. Got it for a $1200 due to old stock. I wanted a cheap race bike that would look decent lining up in any race back then. Now if I walked into a shop I'd prob walk out again, and go buy some running shoes. Or buy a gym membership instead.
…or a motorcycle. I sold my pinarello and put the money on a motorcycle lol
The road bicycle reached it's zenith in the early 2000's, since then it has bogged down in complexity and BS performance claims.
Everything reached it’s zenith in early 2ks
nostalgic
I agree for the most part. The average person doesn't need 12 speed, internal cables, aero tubes, integrated cockpit, discs, or electric shifting. Wider rims and wider tires are really the only thing that would be a noticeable improvement for everyday casual riding.
Just so, '97 to 2004.
I feel no need to update my bikes bought in the 90's and early 2000's. They are easy to maintain and perform well enough for my needs. The only challenge is finding spare parts for them, stocking up my garage with as much as I can.
The industry manufacturers need to wake up and see that your product is only worth what someone is willing to pay. It's not just the inflation rate that slowing down sales. We consumers know that these products aren't worth the asking prices. We are being ripped off. Look at SRAMs new groupset that just released, $4600 for that, WTF? Shove up yer ass SRAM. I don't need it. In fact, I'm glad I don't need any bike stuff and won't for a long time. I am well stocked on everything I could possibly need. My Dura-Ace Di2 group only cost me $2200 when I bought it and to be fair that amount is all I'm willing to pay should I have to replace it. I'm not paying double for the experience I already get now. Most likely I would choose a Chinese electronic next.
yea no lie right now that applys a lot to current market for everything not jsut bicycle, product is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it
It’s quite simple to see that reduced pricing is still is not driving sales. Too many brands, too much inventory, and not enough buyers.
Drop the price 70% and the buyers will come
Except it's not really reduced pricing when the bike MSRP is 2k and it's reduced to 1.8k for an aluminum frame, aluminum fork, and mechanical 105.
Sure, prices of things get more expensive but aluminum frames and 105 mechanical groupset hasn't changed much. Even with 105 disc costing $750 that doesn't make any sense why the frame/fork/handlebar/seat/aluminum wheelsis over 1k.
Shimano may be one factor as they charge too much for a groupset but the long running brands have no reason why they still charge as much as they do for aluminum frames when we know Chinese companies make Carbon frames for even less.
yea even with discounts people arnt looking for deals right now, they are looking to hold money
Car buyers typically swap every 3 years , bike manufacturers seem to be under the impression that the punters are gonna buy a 10k bike every year 😂
What could possibly go wrong
@@GCPerformance18 as I've said. You drop a Tarmac S Works SL8 to 4k and people will buy, me included
Thsnk you for the candid view on the industry.
I like your videos.
Same situation here in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
We own biggest chain of bicycle stores and have the same problems.
I hope we will come out stronger from this situation.
we jsut have to be smart about the situations and make smart choices
If there's record levels of inventory why aren't prices lower? Even bikes at Walmart go in excess of $1000.
the costs of doing business isnt allowing the new bikes to go under, the companies are struggling to maintain the prices they were by the time the bikes hit our shores with shipping containers and boats and costs of material, but you will see once those bikes are out of year they are dumping 40-50 percent off just to get there moeny back
The same reason a Big Mac meal costs almost $15... The whole supply chain is way overpriced.
@@cup_and_cone overpriced or we are just livng through the largest monitary debasement in modern history. Sadly this is the new norm when the US government and other G7 countries print trillions of FIAT $.
@@GCPerformance18 The shipping squeeze is over, at its peak a 40ft container cost $25k, now they are back down to under $5k per container, you can fit a lot of bikes in a 40ft shipping container.
The reality is a really simple one. Once someone sells something they used to sell for $100 for $200, nobody wants to go back to selling it for $100 until the bottom falls out and the only guy left is the one willing to sell it for $100.
The cost for road bikes are completely outlandish and unjustified, especially if you understand the way manufacturing actually works, and that there is little to no difference in the tooling costs to make an entry level mountain bike, and a road bike or an e-bike. If it were about R&D, and shipping, the e-bikes would be much more expensive than they are.
Tubing extrusion, and carbon mold making are mature industries at this point. Tooling costs the same for any shape you want made for a frame essentially, and large brands are manufacturing in such large quantities, that even the cost of tooling is amortized to pennies a frame, so its not an excuse for pricing. Neither is R&D, they have a couple engineers running computational fluid dynamics simulations for aero if that, again... amortized to pennies a frame.
At the end of the day they are putting together 3 triangles.
That small manufacturer can make carbon bikes in-house for comparable prices with comparable performance, while selling very low quantities and customizing things for you, tells you everything you need to know about the truth of pricing, and R&D.
There is of course inflation that never goes backwards, but prices went crazy especially for road bikes before inflation took off.
I am in the cycle trade and it's very quiet. Customers are now automatically buying components on line and bringing them in to be fitted.
They aren’t saving a great amount, as the labour is higher when parts are supplied and occasionally, they buy the wrong thing.
Where I’m from it’s waaay cheaper buying items online. I wait until I require a bunch of things and then batch purchase from bike24, bikeinn, etc. the savings I get is often up to %40 over buying locally. It helps that I do my own mech work as well.
yea they are buying the online parts without even asking or giving a chance to stores
@@GCPerformance18 I'm buying online coz where i live price in a store are 2 times more expensive , sometimes even more. Also they have only few products, the basic ones.
I think the combination of Shimano's supply chain management and the Leegin v PSKS Supreme Court decision from 2007 is toxic there (the conservatives on the court decided to allow vertical price fixing, such as insisting on a minimum sale price; Shimano don't seem to be able to control counterfeits or unofficial imports and then aggravate it by setting prices lower in Europe); so LBS have to stick to an excessive MSRP due to the court case, but then there's the torrent of imported stuff at steep discounts, some of it genuine, some of it counterfeit.
I drop guys on high end bikes all day long. Thanks to DTC consumer frames/components, I have several bikes on rotation and a huge bin of spare parts. I have zero need to shop at the LBS and no desire to own a big brand bike. In fact my bike buddies come to me when the bike shops mess up their repairs.
I had to take an office job this year and decided to get me and my son a pair of hybrids to explore gravel roads on. Scored a pair of GT hybrids for right at $550 each. They've been great bikes.
thats awesome nice adventure with the kids
The direct to consumer brands are positioned very well for this. Very limited stock with an almost direct ask/demand structure, more financial wiggle room and flexibility to compete without retailers/stores. Try ordering an Aeroad now, Canyon is probably selling everything out with almost no discount before releasing the updated model.
yea they are doping a great jhob and also getting there brand nice exposure
I just don't understand how bike companies can charge as much for a bike as a motorcycle costs. Motorcycle-hundreds of engineered parts VS a bicycle that has almost no parts. Seems like major greed. Maybe they should get a grip or go out of business.
its like anything, there are premium products in every category, like watches or top tier cars, or iphones
You’re comparing street bikes to top end racing machines. The bikes raced in MotoGP cost millions. The bikes raced in the TDF can cost up to 20,000.
@@thomasfitzgibbon1675 You can get a pretty good bike (eg Ninja 400) for 5k. I guarantee more money and engineering has gone into that than any 'top end racing machine' at the TDF.
MotoGP bikes are on another planet by comparison.
I think bikes over the last decade have got so good that the middle market are just riding their bikes and looking after them, or even upgrading components. There's no need to spend thousands on a new rig for marginal gains.
I’m in my 50’s and I’ve never before, over the course of my career witnessed such an all encompassing middle class crushing economy as what we are seeing now. As you said people are being hit from every direction it seems on a global scale. Smh
It's a less severe version of the late 70s to early 80s economy. Hopefully that doesn't mean it will last longer.
@@gk589134 trillion in debts, fasten your seat belts, it will be a bumpy ride.
So you missed how our war on Vietnam caused stagnation and inflation in the 70's? Interest rates were 25% and there was zero job growth, then OPEC cut off gas and prices tripled in a few days. We are in much better shape today. It took me a while to recover from the 70's, but I'm doing Great right now.
@@russshaber8071 He said he's in his 50s, so he was a little kid during Ford and Carter. So he may not remember, dad.
yea the middle class is disappearing and you need at least 100k now to be considered middle class level
Back to Vintage 80s bikes
Go 90's to 2008 , cheep as hell and much better tech like 7800 Dura Ace and Columbus alloy megatube frame ! Mike Burrows Carbon spoked wheels ! Not 2024 10p spokes and a lazer cut brake disc for £5 each , cheep to produce hence all gone disc and 1950's spokes , modern cyclists have gone backwards in tech ? Spokes ? OMG no
Bought some NOS STX hubs and mechs recently to keep my old mtb's going.
I'm on a Gary Fisher that I bought a couple years ago for $165. Suits me fine. I could 100X the price ($16,500) and go 1km/h faster with less exercise.
Firstly, excellent video! Secondly, the industry has become excessively greedy. Nowadays, the average bike price ranges from 6 to 16k, which is outrageous. I own a Ducati Streetfighter priced at 17.5k, and the fact that a bicycle costs almost the same is absurd. Personally, I wouldn't spend more than 2k on a bike. After researching, I found a Chinese Carbon full suspension MTB frame for $999, that is likely from the same factory and looks exactly as the Scott’s Spark RC priced at $3.5k. The main issue remains: big bike brands think they can justify these exorbitant prices.
thank you so much!!!
Exactly. Why is a mountain bike as much as a KTM 450 with programmable ignition modes, traction control, killer suspension (relatively) and tech that is no more than 3 years old?
It just becomes very clear that many bikes between $3,000 - $16,000 are almost made equally and the big brands are price gauging. Those $5,000+ bikes are just not worth the money. And probably it is getting even worse (or better from a consumer perspective) when the frame manufacturers are getting more traction, trust and track record of building quality fully equipped bikes that are on par or better than the big brands. We are all just mostly paying for the brand nowadays.
That 5k bike is like 2,5k in Shimano ⚡ groupset, another 1,5 for a wheelset and rest is not that different from the other, cheaper offerings from the manufacturer.
@@kennethdarlington using consumer prices indeed. Canyon is not paying that to Shimano and DT Swiss for their €4.5k aeroad.
Why anybody buys new bikes is beyond me, there’s literally 1000’s on the used market for peanuts
Id generally agree. When i sell something im always fair.
People seem to be asking crazy prices for used bikes. And i see 1st hand people abusing them.
They are often completely fucked needing $1,000 in parts to bring them back up to good condition so they become a poor deal overall
@@jamesbennett1691 your totally wrong I’ve bought literally 100’s of bikes that hardly need a penny spending. So many people buy bikes with good intentions and then hardly use them, leave them for several years and that’s where I come in, I’ve had mint kona’s that cost over a grand new for less than £100
@@Timemachine74 Why? Because beginners... They have no idea how to tell clapped out bikes from good bikes. Even if you are experienced, buying online can still be a huge risk without seeing the bike in front of you. Most people just want new with warranty and service support.
Thank goodness for ebikes. Honestly, cargo bikes are killing it for us right now. Road bike sales are soft. Mostly selling mid tier (105, 105di2). Our used bikes are also in way higher demand and fewer people seem to be trading in.
Where you located at?
Interesting insights into the industry. I think the change is towards less retailing highly marked up products, but servicing D2C products people have already bought. I.E. Hiring general bike repair folks, people will always want the best prices, and TBH they don't cost much to manufacture, but consumers will want the convenience of having them serviced by experts locally.
This model of business is super common in lots of industries now. If your shop isn’t big enough to do huge pre season orders they want you gone and out of business. Fewer employees on their end. The consumer experience is the last thing on their minds.
yea it is crazy it is like its a win win for them, either you struiggle and skim by and fufil the massive order and sell there product while you are struggling to move all that, or you dont do the order and they drop you
Love the channel and the content! Keep up the good work!
thank you so much!!!!
@3:45 Wow this really hurts as someone who goes to a small bike shop. They're getting absolutely screwed by manufacturers.
yea it is a lot of work like anaything, and im not saying everyones job or making money isnt work, this is what we signed up for
Manufacturers got greedy during COVID. A lot of dealers got greedy too. Bikes flying out of the dealerships at full rip and sometimes over full rip.
My experience during this time was the shop support ended the second the bike was out the door. The shops didn’t care if I came back because bikes were flying out the door at MSRP or MSRP+. I also heard “we’re so busy we just don’t have the space or time to take your money for maintenance or upgrades”. A lot of consumers learned the shops and dealers didn’t provide any value outside of moving bikes out the door. Enter the growth of direct to consumer brands. This is something the local shops did to themselves. Failure to build value in the dealership because they lost sight of the cycling community.
Now inventory is through the roof and shops are begging people to buy new bikes while direct to consumer brands continue to thrive.
I had a bike stolen in November. I wanted to get a bike to do the same job. So I went to every bike shop. There were a few bikes that fitted the right concept but they were not in a suitable size. So we tried to order one in the right size. After a few weeks the delivery was due and we went to ask. We were told that the bike just didn't turn up. Eventually we found a bike that was SUPPOSED to be in the city warehouse. Anyway the delivery took another three months. I didn't think our requirements were THAT tough. But bikes to do the job basically didn't exist.
yea they stopped making bikes for fun or transport anymore and now everything is a show off piece for the company like look how cool our commuter hybrids are they have a bunch of high end tech that is not needed and expensive
I read what the manufacturer said about being full of new old stock. It costs a lot of money to warehouse those bikes. Cut the LBS’s some deals on those models and get them out the door and people in to the sport!
hell yea it does, to pay for rent, we have storage place that is small 30x15 and the rent has gone up nearly 4 times the orginal price since 2020
@@GCPerformance18 Do you think the big brands that are sitting on loads of 2021 and 2022 model year bikes will end up destroying them or destroying the frames to preserve price points on current year models? Do you think they may end up dumping them on the market in developing countries at discount or even dumping the inventory in the west? As a LBS would you welcome heavily discounted 2021 or 2022 stock? Do you think you could sell through it successfully or do you fear it would have a lasting negative effect on your price points and margins?
Multinationals constant greed doesn't change.
If the public don't buy,the price has to drop?
How many years have customers been taken for mugs and ripped off?
yea it seems everyone is tired of being ripped off except for the really rich who do not care and want it now
As much as I love my bikes and riding, no one with any brains at all is going to spent this kind of money for an average product.
On top of that, manufacturers are adding crap to bikes that adds very little in terms of value as the prices hit the stratosphere. They are going to put themselves out of business.
these prices have been for a long time, these prices honestly were nothing new, they have all just raised since inflation but this is nothing new I just think rising costs for everyday living is the problem
@@GCPerformance18 I disagree but that is the nature of a forum. Inflation doesn't make a bike that cost $5K now cost $15K. Bicycles costing more than a decent motorcycles makes absolutely no sense to me. If people want to buy them, and you can sell them, have at it. Just not for me.
Very interesting video. Seems like the days of going to a shop and buying off the showroom floor is getting rarer and rarer now. weather it cars, bikes, furniture, etc, all seem to have long waiting times now, where you need to order the product and wait until its made and shipped and the time to fulfill all these new orders is getting longer and longer. Super frustrating for the consumer.
yea this is the truth, and even that now right now the bikes on the floor when someone is spending this kind of money they want dif bars and stem and crank size and chainrings, the stock bikes are hard to sell anyways
Working off of pre-season orders and maintaining low stock is the best business model for everyone. The snowboard industry was "forced" into this years ago. It prevents market over saturation. Oversaturation is obviously bad for the manufacturer, but not so obviously bad for the consumer. Yea, the consumer can rake in really good deals - until their favorite brand bellies up. The Winter Sports industry has been working "tighter" for a while. The bike industry just needs to get used to it.
I love the idea of "accurate Preseason Orders" but when the company you work with expects a number from you, its wild, we can give them a realiztic number that we fell comfortable with, but at this point we have a high ask from them in a declining economy, and if we dont deliever we get punished
Years ago you would decide you want a Tarmac or a Madone etc and go and get one. Nowadays you decide what type of bike you want and then buy the best deal you can as long as it’s got the weight and bits on you want. The cycling industry milked it too much and cyclists aren’t stupid.
I feel your pain. Thanks for sharing your insight.
I think e-bikes as transportation is the future for the bike industry. But to make that happen, the bike industry needs to pivot away from the sport cyclist as their target buyer. You need to sell the idea of an e-bike as a car replacement and that it enhances your fitness and mood while you get to where you're going.
I visited a local Trek dealer in San Diego on a Monday to check out the 165 lb (!!!) Fetch +4 cargo bike. Besides the craptastic uncompetitive weight of this bike being 60% heavier than comparable long John's, it's also expensive at $8499. But I happened to know it's currently marked down $1000. The sales rep didn't know that and it wasn't tagged that way one the floor. They gave the bike prominent placement, but didn't offer to have me try it. You've got to make new markets in this shrinking economy. Do you know how much car insurance costs for 17 year olds in California? Let's just say it makes an electric cargo bike look like a fantastic bargain.
thank you so much for watching!!
Bought my alloy Cannondale T800 in 2004. Took off the racks, put 32mm tires on, put an 11-34 cogset on and raised the stem. Still riding it. It makes me smile watching the industry try to catch up to me with these "gravel bikes." Keep your uneccessary tech. I do not need carbon, Di2, disc brakes or interal routing. I can fix anything on my bike in my own garage with cheap parts from the internet.
Wow…people not buying $10k bicycles. I wonder what went wrong?
economy lol, because covid times, people were buying everything like crazy
Just like cars bikes are no longer made to last, I’ve gone back back to my old bikes without all the tech garbage
The funny thing is mostly all the people that I know that have 3k-10k mountain bikes had to go into debt with the credit card company to be able to afford the bike. Talk about a horrible financial decision.
holy shit that is horrible, but also I have had friends who wanted to buy bikes from me who I knew there financial situations and I told them not too and they end up buying and selling 6 motnhs later and taking a hit
When a credit company is offering 0% finance for two years it only makes sense to use their money and pay it off over two years
Grant, have you ever done a live Q&A? I have so many questions.
I did at the start of my youtube channel but i might do this again
You need to cover the incoming bike tariff. My experience with specialized has been the opposite. They dont pressure us to over buy.
really? are you located here or over seas?"
@@GCPerformance18 East Coast. My rep is super chilled. My biggest problem is getting stock during this winter.
How is it possible to see a bike for 10 000 dollars when you can buy a Motorbke for less money ? The new Honda 500 NX is 7.5 k dollars.
Stupid mark-up, my AliExpress Polarized Sunglasses cost less than £6 direct from China but over £40 if I bought in the UK. Brake callipers I bought recently cost £24 from China but over £70 from UK retailer.
Apple and oranges. Literally. You're saying, "Hey, I know you want an apple, but buy this orange, it's cheaper!" A motorcycle is not a bicycle.
Well for all of you that voted for Biden did this..
:)
Shops are booked months in advance, though. Perhaps one consequence of bicycle sales during covid? And that’s even though prices for assembly and maintenance are over the top here (Germany), like lacing a wheel used to be 25€ per, now the ask is 66€.
really? we are not right nwo but also we are not in season, and yea lacing a wheel is big money here they charge like 150 for it lol
That's why I just stopped shopping for new bikes and chasing the latest model. I can't get it when I want it and the new model is not much different from the previous. I've actually done the opposite and got rid of some of my bikes, kept some in which I can use for both road and gravel, and started shopping for old vintage steel bikes to fix up. I'm done with the industry and what they're pitching us these days. Bikes are fine just the way they are. Bring down prices, stop pitching the lightest/fastest/compliant/aero bullshit, and just give us practical bikes.
I just bought a new 2022 Giant Stance 2 29er for $1,545 with tax, but it's being shipped from a different state, not my home state.
Inflation, combined with high interest rates is bad combination when you have so much corporate debt that needs to roll over. It's bloodbath for businesses that will have impact downstream. I recently got a gravel bike from Walmart, Ozark G1 for $248 plus tax! It's more than enough to get you into the sport. This is the market companies have competently abandoned and they wonder why they're not making money. You need new blood, current loyal customers feel gouged when the jersey is $150!
A buddy of mine just bought a beautiful white S-Works Aethos with full Campy groupset (I think it’s some limited edition) for $9500 with upgraded 3D printed saddle. He got an online quote for the bike and brought that quote in to our LBS and they matched it. I was quoted over 15K for the same bike with Dura Ace not long ago.
yea I know of a shop who bought a ton of there backstock inventory and have been blowing those models out online for around that same price which is insane
It’s a very simple, simple answer they priced themselves out of the market.
Heavy, slow, fragile, hyper expensive, isn't attractive.
I say no to proprietry components, road disk, integrated bars, internal cables & hoses, electric shifting, hookless, etc.
I buy used No sales tax and the bang for the buck is better
Great point about these bikes being UGLY compared to past years. It isn't just nostalgia. The Sl7 sport looks like trash compared to those old Allez models
the allez were beautiful, it got people excited about th esport
The 2008 housing crisis was due, in a significant part, to lenders giving loans to people that could not afford them. The lenders recouped their money from the federal government, but the home buyers did not recoup their down payments. Keep an eye out for something similar regarding car loans. And no, the federal government did not require lenders to make risky loans. Lenders are supposed to be the experts on assessing the risk of loans.
A decent bike should be between 1500 - 2800 €, i am looking at 4k bikes with the most basic components and quality as entry level bikes. I would say (and i do it since i'm a mechanic) the best deal in today's cycling industry is to go to the second hand market, find a used bike, refresh it and you'll have a great bike with probably better components than a newer entry level one.
You touched on the problem within the first 3 minutes . You consider a 3 to 4 k bike a low cost model ; that's serious hobbyist pricing . There is a huge market for well made bikes at half that price or less , we don't want fancy disc brakes ( which are undersized in the lower models ) , or bleeding edge materials , or the spoprtscar level fit and finish . We just want something better than walmart that we can enjoy on the weekends . There's nothing wrong with the high end market but the industry is leaving a lot of cash on the table .
yea it seems this is the case and it seems a lot of the business tooko the info from covid and just applued it to the whole business and wanted the most cash for each bike model, which is stupid
I recently bought a new Specialized Roubaix. I placed the order in mid December, and the bike took three months to arrive. Admittedly I am in New Zealand so shipping can take a while, but even so, three months is ridiculous.
yea its wild for a current modle year stock bike I do not know why the stock levels are not higher of those models
Yes, I just bought a CANONDALE…,kickstand for my $300 Walmart MTB. $8-$9K for a bike? Wouldn’t have guessed that market would ever crashed. 🤣
yea its crazy walmart is even getting expensive too
Hopefully things work out for you. Seems like it's really tough to be a cycling retailer. Appreciate the updates. Feel like it's going to be tough the way prices are going overall. Ppl starting to get pinched on the rates.
In canada we getting killed with these rates. Mortgage rates are typically only 5 year fixed so we coming up for renewals at higher rates from covid rates.
thanks so much, we have to just be smart and do all we can to make it work, just like any business out there, but yes debt right now is way more expensive then it was 3 years ago
The backlogged inventory wasn't a hurricane, tornado, or other natural event. The producers decided to produce that amount, based on their marketing projections.
Perhaps they made a mistake, although i doubt it. Likely it's just how they've designed the system. This is the problem when the market is dominated by a small number of monpolistic producers. They abuse and squeeze their vendors, that's not a temporary situation, it's a permanent design. They know they can apply pressure and get what they want.
Likely this article you refer to was half written by the manufacturers themselves. Raise a panic about the supply chain and inventory, create the impression that LBS have no choice but to take this inventory and move it. Explain their business model by diverting blame to other factors. There's always been inflation and there always will be, its how the economy is designed. Blaming supply chain is a standard justification now for anything.
I come from a corporate background working with small outlets for the product, and they will not let you make a decent profit, they will mindlessly drive a vendor into bankruptcy, then look for another one. There will never be a good time when everything will click and everyone will be happy. The only way you can get by is by standing up for yourself and pushing back as much as you can. Of course they threaten to cut you off if you don't take the inventory they are pushing. Take them to court for unfair business practices collectively with all the LBS vendors, form your industry trade group that will stick up for its members.
Bike prices are so detached from reality. Modern components are pretty fancy with all the electronics but I doubt they will last as long as the older components. I have a Claude Butler (hardly anyone has ever heard of this brand) aluminum bike from 2002 with Sora groupset, 8 speed cassette, still working fine.
The bike OEMs did this to themselves when they offshored manufacturing far from the consumer.
If Trek, for example, still made frames in Waterloo, they could flex production to meet demand. Now that Trek itself has no control over manufacturing, they have to buy in huge lots way in advance, and they have zero flexibility to changing market conditions.
eveyrone keeps saying something has to give but i have a feeling the only thing that has room to give is the consumer and we might have bigger problems then just bike prices
With all the bad news I am surprised some of the second tier brands haven't folded. By second tier I am referring to brands not named Giant, Trek, Specialized, and Cannondale. I am not referring to quality.
I can't help but think many are hanging by a thread and even better deals will be available by the end of the year.
yea no lie I dont know how they aree not either, it is dead slow for us now but right now maybe itr is season for the whole country so maybe a little longer
Big shiny floor bike stores near me have slimmed inventory but often have zero foot traffic, try walking in and the staff will jump on you desperately trying to get a sale. Corporate greed and tighter economic capacity of consumers all across many sectors (cars, caravans, bikes, sporting goods etc) with ridiculous 12 month product refresh cycles to discount the ‘old new’ model 10 months after release, to make way for the ‘new new’ one (changed colour).
the industry made our rim brake road bikes worth nothing and hoped everyone would buy disc brake bike at twice the price....
but this is the future and consumers are already buying this, the proof is in the numbers
8:13 the main difference is the bike frame. Tube shapes look simple and cheap in the new bike, while the old bike is made of more expensive hydroformed tubes.
yea of course
LBS buying experience is terrible. I needed something, stood at the counter while they ordered it online. Still don’t have it a week later and I need to go back to pick it up.
Are you for real?
So how big do you think your meltdown would be if, you had to wait almost a year for your bike to be built for you.......oh, & you had to have won gold before the build was offered to you in the first place?
yea people have different experiences, I wonder what the part was? was it the brand part that they sold? was it a modern part? or a part from 10 years ago? stores need to stock what sells and what is in demand, not every item possible from 5/10 year old bikes, its hard to stock every single item
F bike manufacturers and f the auto industry.
for my buddy shop his inventory was cut doing covid.. and he kept it that way. his business is mostly service so ya...
happy riding!
yea If shops were able to do this they made out and are probably not feeling the stress which is a good thing
@@GCPerformance18 very small shop so that is why. Hopefully things get better as I am looking forward to new stuff once in my budget
The problem is manufactures make the low end bikes extremely heavy, to make the expensive bike appealing. I bought a 2024 trek Domane al as a project bike. I had a spare sram rival 1x groupset and carbon wheels laying around. I ordered a cheap carbon seatpost and handlebars feom china. The bike now weighs 17.5 lbs. I could probably get it to 16 if i wanted to. Scram rival axs can be bought for 500 other parts cost me 80 dollars. You can get cheap carbon wheels for 350. Give people an aluminum bike with electronic shifting for under 2000. Stop with this claris and tiagra bs
Retail bicycle outlets need to do more to encourage young people and older adults to ride bicycles.
Sponsoring bike trains to escort children on their rides to school would be a great start. Organizing volunteers, teachers and other to ride along would be a great start. Getting children out of minivans and onto bicycles would be healthy exercise, build independence and make society healthier.
Fun ride should also be organized. Getting a local bike club or school to sponsor an annual event to a local park or trail would encourage both adults and children to ride bicycles. Getting local elected officials to help with sponsored activities would help to educate them about the need for safe, protected bike lanes and trails in their community. Offering space and coffee for local riders to meet up would also improve store traffic.
I have a pro deal with several major brands. Specialized pro deal a lot of times is msrp for other brands. Brands like Canyon, Ari and YT and others are eating into the major brand profits. DtC will be the way to go.
I bought a TREK DS2 in 2017. Loved that bike since I got it... recently spent $100 getting it tuned and tightened. Like a new bike again.... gonna keep it and maintain it... not going to play in this inflation game - more expensive with less quality.
I was in the market for a road bike to use along side my gravel bike. Decided to buy used wheels on ebay (same hubs as my current ones), chucked on some narrower tyres and I'm sorted. £250 and I now have two bikes without spending £2000+ for similar performance.
I dont understand how people say the cheapest bike is 2000$, like bruh how? I used to have a solid 300£ 7 speed bike, cycling is still very accessible.
Same with the car industry, they went down the - well we can sell 'luxury' that people can't afford outright, so they can buy it on finance. Most of the consumer world is pushing top get purchasers to just put it on the never never and keep buying, because you feel like you have more money in your pocket.
Yea I can see for cars them bringing out like 100 month loans to help with this because people really don’t care about the total amount they just care about that monthly payment
Brought it all on themselves
I am in the market for a new bike and can’t find anything in stock that I want. I am annoyed that they match certain groupsets to specific color of the bike.
U are then part of the problem :) More colors per model would be higher prices