Get Out While You Can! The Crazy PORSCHE Market is Officially FINISHED - Here's The PROOF
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- čas přidán 13. 05. 2024
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Today on the video, I look at the crazy world of Porsche pricing, and examine why I think that it has finally come to an end.
#Porsche #ClassicCar #investment
Chapters
0:00 Introduction
1:08 How it used to be
4:32 GT3 RS Discounts?
6:28 When Things Changed
10:12 Cayman GT4 - The Beginning of Madness
13:55 Peak Crazy
20:43 Signs of Decline
25:04 The Most Depreciated Porsche
31:41 Conclusion
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Question: How much is the post-Brexit here a factor of the Porsche prices in the RHD UK ecosystem?
@@theatrenest9982 in this case only an indirect cause in terms of the damage to our economy
@@JayEmmOnCarshaha :((( people over the age of 60 shouldn't be allowed to vote for such things.
I was 17 when the Brexit vote happened so I had no vote, and now the country I was born in and planned to live my life in, is in economic ruins and I'm planning to move to Europe.
U crazy
True, I worked for a Porsche dealer in '05 and u could get a discount (though they didnt want to do that), but if u waved a check infront of them, u could get extras instead of a discount say a power upgrade flush, fancier wheels, stuff like that.
PS: they used to make 5-6K of profit on the fancier wheels alone.
I think a more accurate title would be cheap credit has now finished.
Blowing £100k of credit on a new sports car isn't the top of everyone's agenda since their mortgage repayments have doubled.
Or the opportunity cost of investing same funds has commensurately gone up
Doubled is slightly overstating it - but not by much - my mortgage rolling over this year have meant I now have nearly $2000 less per month for discretionary spending - enough that it certainly rules out buying any more cars for a while that's for sure! He does mention the cost of finance in the video - but yeah, it'll be impacting all the luxury brands.
@@trogdortheburninator8149 Can you elaborate a little.
@@michaelyounes29 im int he states, last car I financed was 93k with 35k down. Rate was 2.9. Now the rate would be 8 or so. So now I have to buy cash tie up an additional 70k that I could be using in the market to make at least 8 percent. Before the loans were running at or below inflation essentially borrowing was smarter than paying cash
@@michaelyounes29 some people have mortgages. Those that don’t can either buy a Porsche or boat or whatever, or invest in shares / property or whatever. Take government bonds (risk free assets) return has gone up so much over last year or two. Same for more “risky” assets. Point being it’s that much harder to justify toys for all. Also means the price of assets has downward pressure is property, floating rate bonds, infra assets as the “risk free yield” goes up which doesn’t help sentiment
Interesting times ahead! I just hope the outcome is that more of the GT cars find their way into the hands of real driving enthusiasts rather than the speculators.
Well said Antony 👍
God I hope so 🤞
Absolutely, couldn’t agree more
Exactly, I'm a fortunate person that owns a 991 speedster, Dakar, Sport Classic, GT3RS Tribute and a Trubo S cab and I drive everyone of them. They deserve to be driven and deserve the respect to be used what they were made for. I don't worry about value. I own them to enjoy. And even if the market goes down. I'm a collector and long term holder.
@@gosmarte669that's a wild collection for sure!
I have always said the best way to get value out of a car is to buy one you really like and then drive it as much and for as long as possible. Enjoyment, extensive use and not caring about resale value is the way to go.
100% agreed otherwise what’s the point? Just buy a sensible car if u care too much about value right?
I agree with 1000%. True love on the car should be the driving force to own the car. Resale value should be the extra bonus but should not be the main focus of owning a car.
Absolutely. Buy what you like, drive it, enjoy it, use it up.
Great video, the same thing is happening in the property market too, the amount of properties which have huge discounts around London ( some up to 50%) cheap money is no longer a thing and as people realise interest rates will be higher for longer they are rushing to get out.
This is a great reminder to buy the car because YOU want to own and drive it! Don't buy it because of it's perceived future value to other people! The market is slowly returning to some semblance of harmony and equilibrium. This is equally true in the UK market as it is in the US right now.
All across the board, not limited to UK & US. Couldn't agree more. Saw it in watches as well, troves of "investors" (who don't know a thing of horology) flocking to the hobby when it started showing its potential the past 6-7 years (but especially during covid of course), only buying references that were "sure" to appreciate in some ridiculous way, never buying watches because they actually liked them... so the whole claim that they were "watch guys" never stood up, as it they all chased the same things for the same reasons, no individuality whatsoever, just ticking off entries on a checklist. Of course we see it often with cars too, as discussed here... and many other luxury segments. People end up being clones of one another, collections so homogenized... full of desirable stuff, but also devoid of meaning when hoarded en masse like that "just because". Sorry for the rant!
cars in US market is still way above what's shown here.
But the entire reason most Porsche owners buy (and pay a premium) for cars is because it is an aspiration ... and all the perception of success that comes with it.
I'd wager a typical 992 or 993 owner would even refuse to set foot in a 996 even as a passenger if you were to offer him a lift ...
Absolutely. My modus operandi for anything I buy.
In regards to something more close to a base 911, do they cars ever sell for under MSRP?
It’s not just Porsche - it’s the entire sports car market.
Not just the sports car market... Gonna be all markets. This is just a precursor. People are liquidating whatever they can. Then it's stocks, then homes. Feels like it's finally happening.
I've been saying for ages that the car market is like the 2008 housing market. They're all on finance and when people get out of their pcp, the manufacturers will be sat on scores of used cars that fall well below their predicted future value.
Looking for a Classic Mustang fastback,i am sure prices will come down a lot!
@@Tential1there's still to much demand for houses for them to drop the way cars can. Cars are going back to 50% every three years depreciation.
Is nothing like houses or the stock market. Go look at your pensions as they have done crap for the last several years.
Porsche got greedy and increased prices while interest rates shot up. The result is you have GTS coupe that are at list well over £150000 !! Crazy.
Fascinating analysis with lots of real-time data to back it up, thanks!
One additional observation is that smaller specialist finance companies that advanced money on the basis of high residual balloons are likely to come under a lot of stress if cars are returned at the end of their finance term as many owners won't want to re-finance at today's interest rates and underlying market valuations.
One point you made personally struck home - I bought an end of line-up 2015 Boxter 981GTS as a daily driver in around 2019 partly on the basis that Porsche declared it would be the last naturally aspirated model that wouldn't be replicated in the 718 range and hence might become a future modern classic ....except that didn't turn out to be true. In my personal case, I'm pleased that I didn't have to finance the purchase and am happy to affordably enjoy it every day. Many others might become in the 'negative equity' trap you outlined.
Excellent video Jay.
To further make the point, as of yesterday (14th Nov 2023) the Porsche UK website was listing 226 NEW, unregistered 911s. Of these 45% were Turbos or Turbo S models. I’ve never seen new 911s available from stock never mind more than 200. Of course this in part will be due to Porsche clearing their parts inventory ready for the 992.2 build program.
I found out last week that my local Porsche dealer has 70 new cars unsold, in stock on their forecourt. Glad the bubble has finally burst.
Which one
I bet most of them are Taycans
@@oneeleven9832 What because people have realised it's a rebadged Audi Q5.
@@teabagtowers3823 you're thinking of the Macan
@@xopelvi2796 It'll be Macans and Taycans people are probably realising that the depreciation on electric cars are horrendous. Unless you get electric car as a company car if you buy a Taycan outright in the first year you'll probably lose £30-£40k.
Having been through this recently with 2 Porsches, let’s not forget the air of arrogance shown by the dealerships “oh no sir, you can’t just buy the car, we allow you to buy one” this never sat well with me. Beautiful things for sure, but the dealerships are just crooks, wait until you get your first service bill 😮
In the UK Porsche servicing is menu based so you know in advance what you will be paying. Compared with many of its direct competitors servicing is reasonable.
@@hpman911 yup £2600 for a service, wether I knew it before hand or not is a complete ripoff. Just my opinion of course.
£2600 for a first service? On what, a 918?
Yes nothing IS a 911, but……….
@@thomassanio8745 ??
Have to say I think this is the most interesting informative video you've done James.
I've been a Porsche nut since being a teenager and am on my 4th. For many years I studied the Porsche Market pretty much on a daily basis but then just got bored of seeing these cars commanding stupid money none of these are really worth 3,4,500k are they. Let's be honest. And also what you say about dealers turning into arses was something you just didn't experience 10/15 years ago. You reap what you sew.
Great video and very very interesting as to where the market is now.
I didn't buy my Porsche to make money. I bought it to enjoy it.
And thats also what Porsche wants. These cars are meant to be driven, more so than any other supercar manufacturer. Porsche didnt spend all that R&D to create a brilliant car like the new GT3 RS just for it to sit in a garage.
It helps if you can stay solvent whilst owning it though.
@@asb1619 I don’t think people will lose their shirts if they buy a CPO Porsche they like
Same here I’ve had 5 Porsches and my 992 S was for enjoyment.
Exactly……
I have been wanting a 992 for the past few years but I couldn’t find myself paying the overpriced listing. I am a car enthusiast. If we, as consumers, decide not to buy the Porsche at these ridiculous prices, then prices will have to come down as they are now. Hope that trend continues.
It's all relative, so all car prices are coming down. Look at the EV market for example for new and old cars. This video is misleading just focusing on Porsche. No other manufacturer makes a car so all round desirable as the GT cars for petrol heads which is why they routinely go over rrp. Nobody is paying overs for Ferrari and Lamborghini because they don't offer the same broad appeal and image. As soon as the market slows by general market and global forces the overs prices will drop but it's a fallacy to says it's just the Porsche market and dreamland to think Porsche will lower prices when a well specced M3 is now around £100k 😂
If people stop paying for these expensive cars the company will just discontinue them and accelerate towards electric vehicles
Enough people will pay, regardless of price. That's today's "gotta have it" buyer, aka wealthy males.
Not to mention the ludicrous dealer markups. I saw some as high as $50K once Covid hit. Get bent Porsche!
@@Apexbossman Nobody wants that. this is Porshe not toyota. begone.
Hopefully it will trickle down to the more pedestrian models as well. Right before the market went insane I was finally in a position to afford a used Boxster S. Then they doubled in price overnight! Hopefully they'll come back to Earth soon...
Had the same on a E63s
Due to the rise in car thefts and the ridiculous increase of insurance prices on cars, a lot more people will be selling their cars so I have a feeling car prices should start dropping at a reasonably fast rate.
They'll never be priced anywhere near as low as they were.
New sports cars are getting bigger, heavier, softer and more expensive.
Proper little sports cars like that will hold their value forever now I think :((
This is happening to basic cars as well. Speclation from the lockdown took the car market.
Be great to see sports cars on their lots again. Currently in a position where I can buy my dream 911 but not at the inflated prices and not going to just take whatever they have available. This one will be, eventually, a keeper.
This was such a wonderful video Jay!! I've subscribed to you for this.
Love the fact that your auto trader postcode was the McLaren factory
😂😂😂
By far my favourite video you’ve ever made. Great insight and well researched
I remember back in 1974 I was looking at Jaguars at my local dealership. It was the last year for the XKE. They had several lined up in row.
They couldn't sell them. 1974 was a major economic downturn. Inflation was over 11 percent. Those cars were so pretty all lined up in a row in different colors. I sure wanted one.
Great vid Jay, thorough analysis and kudos on spotting the trend.
I'll keep my 19 year old Mondeo... gentle depreciation curve now😂
Your ahead of me. My focus is only 16.
They'll soon start appreciating as a modern classic!! :)
I'm also driving an 18 year old Mondeo that I bought 17 years ago!
Right on! Keep the Porsche. My £750 19 year old MGZR is solid as a rock. Haha!
@@Shand1982Mondeos will never be a famous classic.
Great video! I owned a couple of good used 944s in the 90's, which I bought for very reasonable money, but then left the UK in 2003. Even though I will never own another Porsche, I've continued to keep an eye on UK prices and I've been shocked at how expensive they have become. The bubble had to burst at some stage and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money.
What a brilliant synopsis, thank you for your insight 🙏🏼
It just seemed weird that at the point where I was old enough and finally making enough money to get into the top tier cars that they boosted into stratospheric prices. I refused to follow the prices up, figuring that everything will eventually return to sane levels.
That's part of the story.... a large portion of the population accumulated a lot of wealth at the same time and we all wanted the same toys.
@@DeuceDeuceBravo Eh, I don't think so. I think everyone got bored at the exact same moment and had a yolo moment. For covid I bought a boat, went fishing every day. Hell I didn't care anything about GT3's until I saw LZ tearing around in one.
@@user-hw4nu2qn7j Agreed on COVID boredom. Hence the overlanding/camping popularity. But the stats on wealth generation over the last 10 years are crazy.
@@DeuceDeuceBravo I mean production went crazy too in the last decade. But like the guy said, production stopped, and anything that you can buy, play with, and then make money on is going to bring out the loans and the cash like wild. The "outdoorsy" stuff like van travel, mtb-ing, and def boats went wild because it was outside stuff in a locked inside pandemic. A second tier I will offer is that on prices. So many people decided that they weren't coming off of service or product unless it was worth their renewed sense of self and time. I was running a business, did the same thing. If you want a piece of my time that kept me from fishing or traveling it was going to have to be well worth it. No more racing the rats, everyone looked up and realized they liked their time more than what they were making, so.....prices.
@@user-hw4nu2qn7j Yeah but also a lot of new money guys were born during that period and they don't understand the value of money or anything, these brands knew that whether car brands or luxury fashion brands and they slapped the prices up significantly so everyone that had to grind and learn the value of money over time were ultimately punished because although we know x car shouldn't be more than 130k, this 18yr that just hit the jackpot on some crypto is willing to pay 230k just to say he paid next to quarter million on a car😂
Jay, you are correct about being able to walk into a dealer and purchase a GT2/3.
I did so back in 2005 and the salesman was shocked I was even asking for one. He literally started asking me about tracking it and other such fanatics. He took me for a test drive in a Carrera 4S. He made His point.
Now the story is flipped of course. $150,000 extra for a GT3, ouch 🤕! 😢
This video came out at the right time for me. I’m in the US looking to purchase my first Porsche, a base 911, and thought the dealer markups was something normal. I’ll be sure to not fall into this trap. Thank you!
California is a bad place to buy a Porsche sports car especially as a first time owner. Haven't looked in a while but anything outside a base Macan, Taycan, or Cayenne will still have some ADM
@@joe718gt4 yeahhh I had a dealer offer me an allocation for a base carrera but wanted 5k ADM. Didn’t that it was that bad in the grand scheme of things. Decided to hold out for a .2 allocation.
Just got a T allocation in Texas at MSRP and it seemed like there were a lot available. Definitely shop around.
Just wait, save your money, buy something fun and cheap to play around with and just wait for a bit, the market is finally starting to go back to normal but it’s going to take a long time for it to get back to the point where markups aren’t the norm.
Yes I'm also looking and so far all the top cars are still over msrp even on used I'm in the market to own one and drive the dang thing not to make money or call it a investment I want a 911 gt3 so anyone who wants to sell at or under msrp I'm interested
Awesome insightful video Jay! Appreciate your content and opinions 🙌
Truly fascinating video, one of the best I've seen on your channel , you should produce more content like this.
So many of the new Turbo S's available on the Porsche website are ridiculously over optioned. You can only think that the OPC's have ordered these for their stock, massively specced up to try and make as much margin as possible, which would probably have been fine at the peak of the market when cars were short, but now no one is buying them they are going to really struggle to shift them without significant discount.
Ford produced $100k over optioned F-150's and Toyota shifted production to higher end loaded Lexus'.
Agree 100pc with your observations. The cars arriving into stock are over optioned and with build slots freely available even the 8pc discounts don't make them appealing
A very good video firing up memories from the 1970/80s when I owned four or five Porches over a period of maybe 15 years. I never lost money and always made, say £1000, when sold. That changed dramatically in the early 2000s. My 2002 996Twin turbo lost £2000 a month. I was a vehicle leasing broker during these dramatic years so saw people suffer at first hand. Awful times that may return.
Very entertaining and informative wrap on the Porsche market! Love your work ❤
Love what you did with that wall-mounted PC and its custom loop. Very cool!
Best cartuber vid I've seen. Awesome amount of facts and zero clickbait. Looks like the Porsche crowd are learning the hard lesson the watch business has experienced over the last year. The heavy hitters are losing huge amounts and Rolex are getting back to list price on every model.
Smartwatches are doing their bit to kill that market too.
@@strangerdanger8462I don’t think smartwatches are doing anything like the kind of damage the Quartz Crisis did to the mechanical watch market.
High end audio and guitars are dropping too. No more lifestyle inflation at negative real rates :***(
Any recommendations for watch youtubers discussing the watch market?
@@janon128 Paul Thorpe has a good channel with loads of vids on watch prices. There's a lot of Rolex content, especially about the 'for display only' debacle 😏
With the economy uncertain, not buying a car right now makes sense for a few reasons.
Firstly, cars are costly, and in uncertain times, it's crucial to save money and keep your finances stable. Using public transport or rideshares can save you money.
Secondly, technology and car-sharing options offer convenient transport without the expenses of owning a car, like maintenance and insurance.
Moreover, fewer cars mean lower emissions, contributing to a greener planet. Choosing eco-friendly options supports global efforts to fight climate change.
Lastly, waiting lets you assess your finances when things stabilize. You can focus on saving, investing, or other essential needs like education or debts.
Being patient and evaluating your needs can lead to a wise and financially responsible decision about getting a car.
My financial advisor advises buying cars when interest rates and prices are low. However, he also cautions against it right now due to the hidden costs of car ownership, like insurance and maintenance. He helps me plan for these expenses and manages my portfolio to ensure financial stability. It's all about making strategic decisions and having a well-rounded financial plan.
Thank you for the valuable insights. I appreciate your detailed explanation, which helps me understand the reasoning behind the decision. It's clear that being mindful of financial stability, exploring alternative transportation options, and considering the environmental impact are crucial factors in making a well-informed choice about purchasing a car. Your perspective, coupled with the guidance of a knowledgeable financial advisor, would undoubtedly ensure a well-thought-out and financially responsible decision. Your approach highlights the importance of expert advice in navigating these financial considerations thoughtfully.
Your financial journey is truly inspiring, and I'm currently striving to achieve the goals you've reached. Could you please share some tips to help others learn and navigate their own paths to financial success? Your insights would be invaluable.
Samuel Peter Descovich that's whom I work with
I believe everyone could benefit from having a personal financial advisor. They can assist you in reaching your customized financial objectives at any point, ensuring you remain profitable.
Jay, I am absolutely mesmerised by that wall mounted PC behind you. What a build!
Brilliant episode! Fascinating analysis of the Porsche marketplace. Also, thanks for sharing that Autotrader price tracker plugin info, never realized such a handy tool existed.
A lot of people who bought a GT3, bought it to speculate… thinking that they’d use it for a year and then they would resell it without loosing any money, or even maybe making some profit… thats why there are soooo many used GT3 992 on sale… the selling price is overpriced obviously, that’s why they are not getting sold. Buyers are not stupid anymore… at least not the majority. PS: Very good video!! I love your videos!!
Most of the gt3 buyers more speculated thats the last version naturally aspirated. Its not yet clear if they are right.
@@stephankl632 It’s not. The head of Porsche’s GT division said he will continue to make NA GT cars for as long as he’s apart of the company. Not sure why that rumor started spreading, no real facts that I’ve seen to support it.
Buyers are still stupid, but now they have to do it with their own money. I'm pretty sure they haven't wised up, and would happily spend ludicrous amounts still if they had access to it.
Spot on explanation James... great video, really.
I think the morale of the story is: Buy whatever car you LIKE, WANT and CAN AFFORD. And enjoy it.
I love all the videos you put out there, this makes me fear putting money into a high ticket item and will look for more deals as the market drops and corrects again.
This is a great video just getting ready for work (running out of ) and I’d really like a CZcams “short” version of this!
I was an existing Porsche customer this time last year wanted to buy a new car all I heard was 2 year wait if you’re lucky and we can’t sell you anything and btw apr is now 14% so unfortunately left the brand, they just weren’t interested so now all the people they dismissed they now need…good luck
If it doesn't have to be the latest and greatest, and the dealer shenanigans aside, have you tried looking for your ideal car in the used market? I know the used market for Porsches hasn't simmered down entirely, but considering this is on the verge, why not give it another go? Just for searching, at least? I'm sure there's something out there...
Your fragile ego got hurt by a car dealer. So sad :(
Same here. Was willing to purchase a gt3, was willing to wait also but was laughed out of every dealership. After 6 months of watching used examples going up I completely gave up. It’s been almost 2 years now I won’t buy from Porsche dealer but once the second hand market crashes I’ll pick one up then. Great plan Porsche. Way to lose a boatload of new customers just to keep a bunch of previous customers rich. Let’s see what happens now.
@@zooski1516 was annoying when they go on about how little stock they had and used prices are crazy then offer me £15k less for a trade in on exact same Car and spec on forecourt! Even though just had full service with them and new tyres! Apparently Carmine Red isn’t a popular colour lol. Was a Macan GTS lol
time to get a lotus emira now
I live in Detroit and have worked in over 50 car plants and I can tell you you are spot on. You absolutely nailed it. $75000 US for an average Bronco. And you have to wait 6 months to get it. Crazy!! What comes next is the bigger question.
Yea but lease is only 3.99%, cheap
What happens next is a slow and steady decile over the next decade where 911s depreciate more and more, especially as EV sports cars come out and create s sports car revolution. Anyone that buys a 911 today will lose way more money than even a regular car.
Yes, and they want 7% interest on the loan. Crazy!!
What comes next is high unemployed and wage decompression.
Marvelous video, same is happening with a lot of articles that were under speculation over this past years.
Jay - fascinating video. Love to see your thoughts on the classic P market
This has been coming for a while and good to see a concise view on the matter
It was completely ridiculous what happened to the prices of the so called special low volume GT cars and the Turbo S.
Folks who paid overs must be feeling pretty sick and angry with Porsche, their ruthless dealers and the Celebs getting them discounted and now the bottom has fallen out of the market
McLaren suffered a few years back but they really are low volume and to a degree more special and their prices have been more robust because of it.
Excellent vid. Quite informative
Great episode, your car market insights are fantastic.
Seems like the car market is coming back to the car fanatics, and it was about time 😍 great video again JayEmm!
I’m not normally a fan of schadenfreude but I’ll smile at porsche suffering. I’ve bought lots of their cars in the past but when I’m told I can’t have another GT3 without having to play games and buy cars I don’t want to bump myself up a list…
It was only a matter of time before market forces changed and they will be begging for the customers they previously treated with disdain.
ok brokie
@@jdm538 i'm sure you've owned many more Porsches than him, jdm538
So which other way do you suggest they prioritize customers for a limited number of cars? The fact you think it's personal or disdain just tells me you're a bit of a narcissist.
It's a nice thought and I feel your pain... but that's not gonna happen. :) Plenty of people with means are going to continue to fight to buy the special cars..... The rich people aren't going away.
Got my 2018 991.2 T at a little under MSRP, and paid MSRP for my 2023 Taycan 4S. They call me up or try to show me stuff when I stop in for service. I love looking at the nice GT3 and GT4, but I’ll be damned if I’m paying $50k-75k over MSRP for anything. I’m glad for them that they have a market for it, but $300k for a GT3 Touring? Lol, nah, I’ll get something actually exotic and unique (Superformance GT40 might be next on my list …), and keep using my lightly modified T to pass the old rich men in their GT3’s on the track, all. Day. Long.
this is such a good analysis, thank the lord I will never get tired of my car
Thank you very much for this great Video Jay!
It's refreshing to know that speculators are getting cold water off their financial "gambles".
Now I'm off to get this GT3 with a Turbo S on top of it 😁
That spiral you describe at around 15:00 reminded me of the situation that led to 2008s economic crisis. A bit like a micro-version of that, really. Either way, like many others here, I can only hope that the "buying a car as an investment"-phenomenon will decrease again to a decent level (i.e., only for exclusive old classic cars). That way, these special Porsches can get used as Porsche intended.
Yeah the upside down realestate side with folks panicing and prices falling well below the amount financed ....becoming upside down is an awful feeling especially for anything non classic that depreciates with age as the new and improved version of the model keeps coming forth and the car in question becomes more and more "long on tooth"
this phenomenon will never go away. The sellers depicted here are losers. They are either too impatient or do not have the money to be patient. They should wait 10 years,
We are living in times where the young people are the first generation EVER to actually earn less than their parents all the while everything is getting massively more expensive.
Cars are just one tiny aspect of it. The prices are never coming down. That being said there are still quite a lot of cars that are losing value massively and are affordable. Look at any maseratis or jags. If you want a 10k car that has the repair bill of a 150k car you can still do it.
How did Porsche really intend their modern more affordable cars to be used though? In Germany there are now car-free towns, a backlash against exhaust noise which is creating lower speed limits as the assumption is they're speeding and on the increase. My Porsche would spend most of its life on the driveway or work's car park and only ever used to around 30% on UK roads of its capability unless it's tracked which can get more expensive than top level Karting.
@@erwinlommer197but many influencers, onlyfans etc are making quick easy money
I bought a Spyder RS. I went to the dealer and told them I want one. And I got one. on MSRP. (This was my first Porsche)
They wrote in the contract: I need to drive it at least 1000km (I drove 2500km already and I don't want to sell it at all! :) )
Awesome contract stipulation. Are you in the uk?
@@cben86 Budapest, Hungary
you are lucky! Enjoy it, drive it as much as possible!
@@jagymeister Thank you.
@@FreestylerAlbert Why you "have to" drive It a certain amount of miles?
Spot on!! Great factual summary
Absolutely fascinating, great job.
Cars, watches, all having massive price corrections, cheers fella, as always a really great video.
Very interesting James, thank you.
I guess a lot of folk who love driving in the UK know that you don't need the 'halo' cars to have true driving enjoyment.
I recall a few decades back the classic car market had a recalibration and many speculators lost money.
I remember it well. 100.000 pound cars like E Types went down to 20.000 pounds. I remember lord brocket destroying 3 classic Ferraris and a very rare Maserati. Cut them up and buried then in he’s grounds. 4 million they were insured for. But then the desert storm war started and a resection began and the cars went down in value. Them cars are worth untold millions now.
I’m in my late 60s….retired Navy Officer and retired Federal LEO. The year I turned 50, coincided with making O6 in the Navy….and I gifted myself a pristine very low mileage 944S2 Cabriolet. I drive her only in good weather….keep up with her service…..and last summer I tripped her clock @ 60k miles. I love the car, it gets positive comments and questions everywhere I go (with one gent recently asking me “is that the new Boxer?). Anyway, I’ve always wanted a 911….and recently, I’ve half-heartedly been looking for one. But……maybe not? I’m too “senior” to consider paying “stupid money”! Anyway…brilliant insight in this video, sir….Bravo-Zulu, well done.
Simply brilliant and informative. Thank you so much (from USA).
Love these videos Jay, your insider knowledge is really refreshing and HONEST. Not going to get this info from speculators or the dealers...it highlights the traps people fall into when over exposed, thinking the market will always go up...supply and demand essentially...and huge interest rates to curb inflation. This is one of the examples of BOE raising interest rates to curb inflation. Over sticker prices are the definition of inflation. On this occasion the high interest rates set, make sense to reign in over spending especially if the supply will eventually catch up with demand...thanks again. If you want to review a Megane 4Rs Trophy let me know 😊
I sure do! Ping me an email
Thank you for the candid, knowledgeable and humorous views. I feel you are always able to capture the essentials in a very entertaining way, and I feel like my small universe expands as I watch your reviews. I personally just bought a used Cayman S… loving it, but didn’t empty the bank account for it! 😅 Gracias Jay!
Yep. It’s why I bought an MX-5 ND2. In this market it’s the only thing that makes sense. And I don’t feel like I’ve compromised at all as it’s so much fun to drive.
I was never really in "it" with a non-s, 981 Cayman with a lot of miles, but I'm definitely starting to think about a safari build on it now, and just having fun with it... It's still a beautiful, manual, Guards Red example.
Thanks for the info... Nice Job!!!!
Great video Jay :) My favourite game as a small town car salesman is to watch high end dealers inventory continue to be discounted by $10K - $150K very week on “so called, rare or investment cars” that they bought in peek market when wholesale prices didn’t exist because everyone was paying over. Thank goodness I buy Hondas’s and Toyota’s to resell. In southern Ontario, Canada dealers have been dropping prices like crazy. With used car interest rates now around 9% you better have cash for that Porsche or G Wagen. The days of cheap finance money are gone and only the truly wealthy are in the market now looking to capitalize on the downward trend. Don’t be fooled by BAT and others sites showing inflated prices. I’ve seen people manipulate markets at auctions for decades. It’s the same group of people who buy and comment everyday. They’re protecting there assets because they have a garage full of them. Buy what you love and drive the hell out of it or shine it up and keep it mint. Less then 1% of cars increase in value over time.
dude ironically Honda & Toyota overpriced for what they are too..& this is coming from someone mixed w/ Japanese & only driven Lexus since the start..now theyre kinda boring & made for soccer moms & tho' the Germans & Italians can't get the reliability..theyre the most exciting & dynamic to drive..tho' if I could get that new body Honda/Acura NSX..but it needs carbon fiber monocoque safety..not that lame aluminum space-frame..if it had that..but for the lack of safety..gotta go i8 or 911 for the monocoque/unibody chassis
Lucky to find a Toyota at the lot. Mark up is so high you might get better deal buying a Lexus
@@henrylam92
So true. Orr Cadillac if you dare!😛😋😜
@@henrylam92 Depends on what you're buying, there's a reason they're marked up. When I wanted to replace the runabout Lexus, my only option with real leather and an infotainment system that wasn't braindead like current Lexus was an Avalon. You now need to buy a Super Luxury trim on Lexus just to get what you used to get with Base and suffer with the not-quite-touchpad nonsense.
Excellent recap and timeline. Seriously… spot on!
I’m completely ok with where we’re headed. Sold my 997.2 C4S past peak but broke even for 6 years of ownership and 45k miles put on it. To drive it for “free” during that time feels like a luxury.
Keeping my 991.2 T basically forever and would gladly add a GT3T if prices felt like they were tethered to planet earth.
nah....chronological innacuraices abound. no more goodwill in 2010 becauwe of deieselgate in 2015. 911r's at £1m....edge cases easily disproved with google.
I’m not sure all of his details are true. 911R worth £1mm? When did this ever happen? I don’t recall a US 911 R ever selling for over $500k. Just one example of facts being exaggerated to fit a narrative l
@@pmr01I just posted a response then read yours. Yeah, so much wrong with this video. Mostly made up bs
I can confirm that 911R’s were listed for £1,000,000+. Romans intentional had one for example. If you were around the car scene in 2015/6/7 you would have seen this.
@@liamgell Been around a wee bitty longer than 15 / 16. That was a clickbait article that did him no favours. ALL cars have lost a whack in the last few months…no need to sensationalise. But hey, you just suck that up mate and believe that there was a £1m 911r unicorn out there.
Hi James,
I had a Honda CRV EX in a special order colour, bought just before the pandemic. Got a call from the dealer a year later offering me a pearl black one with a free 5YEAR servicing package as a STRAIGHT SWAP for mine!
Never had such a thing in my life before!😂🤷🏻🤯
Great vid as usual!👍
Wow.. just wow.. You definitely hit the nail on the head with this video! In 2021 I actually got a BMW 2 series 240i "used" with all extras and 758miles on the clock for 12k £ less than a new one. It's the same car I am still driving today. Only for year later to see the prices sky-rocket and wondered WTH?! How come my car is now more expensive than when I got it?!
Respect for the research and the video!
PS: A Porsche over 100k £ is just insane.. it's a mechanical car - not made of gold. (I still wish I would have bought that 944 in 2013 now though :)) )
Luxury watches as well. Interest rates have caused a slow down and people are reconsidering their choices. Love these deep dives into what's happening!
People dont tend to finance watches
@@Jay-xr3sbpeople would take a debt to buy stocks. But here we are 2023 with people losing morgages to crypto.
I meant that luxury watch prices were dropping. Sorry I was not more clear. Thanks.
There are people who buy watches with a loan?
@@GT-pl1wx Anything is possible!
Here in California it’s still, absolutely INSANE.
The 2 Porsche dealers around me won’t let you spec anything but Macans, and have used 911 4s for 160k, and gts’ for 190k….
As I said, it’s mental.
lol GTS for 190. That's poverty spec. I've seen them at 230k!
Yes. Car prices for ALL cars in Cali are insane.
dude..i was just looking for a used 911 4S..still at least $80K+..I wouldnt even consider Porsche over $60K..too many other amazing options above that..say that new body R8 V10 which is a Huracan sleeper..that's the only other rear-engine daily driver sports car besides maybe the i8 & theyre both a fraction of Porsche prices
Porsche was like “f the brokers and 2nd market, we want some of this money”
@@CCP-pb5ss I8 is a poor driving highly depreciating poor car. R8 is over rated and good luck servicing one of those. I had a Huracan Evo and it got landed with a $6000 service after 2 years. All routine items. It was dull as dishwater to drive. How it loaded up around corners was dull and borderline dangerous there is that lack of feel
I'm more into previous gen models, but this was really interesting. Thanks! 🤘
Very interesting information, JayEmm. I have a 997 Turbo which is a somewhat daily driver. Bought it in 2018 at a good price and lived through the ups of the market and now, the downs. I'll probably run it for a few more years - enjoying the heck out of it. I'm not a car flipper but you're shown how some folks are locked into a soft market and stand to lose a bundle of cash. Should be some relatively good bargains in 2024.
Don't ever sell your 997 turbo, or if your in the U.S. sell it to me. I had one for 4 years and had to sell it 3 or so years ago for family assistance and I miss that car every single day. You will regret it. In my opinion it's the absolute best "modern" Porsche.
@@kirkwilson5900 well - it is the last narrow body model. Prices will be higher - with an expected peak in 10-15 years.
In general, I think if one owned such a car, just drive it - that's what they are meant to be for.
I had a 997.2 vert.. got totaled by some jackass with no insurance, registration and suspended license. Beyond sad I can’t hand it down to my kid
@@jeffcheng5058Sad story... Hopefully, your insurance covered it. Seems to be a good time to get a deal on a 997. Temperature today was 39°F - great drive with the top down and the heater on.
Had my Porsche 930 since 1994 :). Double factory hp now.
The perfect storm of: higher production, much higher interest rates, and vast increases in retail prices. There will be some real bargains to come. Great analysis James! McLaren postcode 😂. The other Autotrader bloodbath is the M3 Touring; 121 for sale, and that figure is increasing rapidly. There was a new Rubystar Turbo S for sale the other day at about £162k, nearly £30k off.
Always look forward to these longer essay type videos.
Really well done Jay, my first time watching one of your videos, subscribed.
Thanks! Welcome to the channel
@JayEmmOnCars thank you! I was selling VWs when the clean diesels hit the showrooms, but was gone before they got caught. Interesting to see how the fallout of that situation has played out all these years later.
Hi James. Thoroughly enjoyed this. One of the best vids you’ve done. 👍🏻
Good watch that and nicely put together 👍
I had swayed off going down the 458/GT3 route last year for this reason I was waiting for the bubble to burst!
Sadly it has on even things like the M cars I own but taking 10% hit on a 25k car is more bearable than 125k car 😅
Love that open PC build
Brilliant detail & content
Very good and informative video. Thank you for that. May I ask what is the set up that you had behind you with all of the fans? It is so incredibly cool I just kept looking at it the entire time.
Brilliant analysis. There's something to be said about not spending right up to the margins of your budget on any big purchase. The scenario you've outlined here for the Porsche market were the precise circumstances of the 2008 housing market crash. My dream was a Cayman GT3 but I settled for a used, low mileage base Cayman. I was able to pay cash and I enjoy more had I borrowed on the GT3.
👏🏼
what i have never worked out is how porsche got away with making so many models, you order a car and by the time you get it the new model is announced
It is because 70% of new porsche buyers are mugs. Easy to get money from stupid people
huh what? the 992 generation of the 911 arrived in 2018 and the 992.2 gen hasnt even been announced yet when its releasing
@@sesto194 It’s not about generations, but about variants, particularly on the 911. I also feel there is a new combination of the letters G, R, S and T thrown at 911s every time I come across a 911 video.
@@phil4086 there isnt though. Its been the exact same lineup of 911s since the 90s. Carrera, Targa, Turbo and GT cars. Some special editions thrown in, just like every sportscar manufacturer does. No new model makes another one obsolete, so its really never like "ah damn i just ordered my GT3, but now theres a Dakar coming! "
Apple?
All seems very obvious when you put it like that!
You're absolutely right when you talk about the lack of goodwill these days. In 2021, my 14,000 mile 2018 S4 threw a thermostat and water pump 6 weeks after Audi had serviced it and a month outside warranty. Neither the dealer or Audi UK gave a f***.
Thank you for this extremely informative video! I bought a 7 year old Boxster S in 2012 for $33K and when I was looking at 7 year old Boxster S cars in August of this year they were over $60K!!!!! I didn't know what the hell was happening but now I do!
What a nice thing to see the market slowly being returned to the collector / buyer. Was long overdue. I am hugely into watches as well, and the same thing has been happening there.
collectors are just as bad
I also think life in general became an awful lot more expensive in the past 2-3 years because of the crazy inflation, which does not really motivate anyone to spend money, especially brand new car/barely used car big money.
same with whiskey, due to the china. no more money outside china to spend.
I think this also speaks to a broader affordability issue, not just for the special stuff. I’m looking at upgrading cars next year and love the idea of a 992, but cannot get my head around the prices that the S and GTS are commanding as well. As you flagged at the start, Porsche have always had very strong residuals, but with supply chain issues largely resolved and these models being completely unlimited, 120 / 130k+ just feels a bit crazy. But maybe that is just the ways things are now - I know that a brand new M4 can be over 100k with options so maybe in that context it doesn’t sound as crazy, but it all feels a bit unsustainable especially as interest rates will really start to bite when people’s PCPs finish.
I could suggest you give the 911T some consideration is you are not married to the idea that it has to be an S or higher. Considering that all engines on the current 911s are all turbocharged anyways, you can get a T with a software reflash and be just as potent or better than an S, but with all the performance equipment.
Yes no funny that Porsche has focused on the GT models and used 992 are not so many. Maybe a new 992 Carrera is the way to go? what is the lead time?
Great video. Another factor was the massive transfer of wealth during Covid-19. The largest in history, from small business/middle class to the top.
Great video mate!
May I inquire about the air cooling unit hung on your wall. I like it.
Interesting
Cheers
Very interesting video, would love to hear how you think the classic / modern classic market will be affected.
Speculation on new ‘limited’ models is nothing new, and I don’t think recent geopolitical changes are entirely responsible for the huge price spike and subsequent drop we’re seeing for new cars, although they certainly have exaggerated things.
Interesting to note with 992 GT3s and GT4 RSs is that they’re still going for quite a bit above retail, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to drop past that level.
Current GT Department cars are produced in much higher numbers compared to the 996 generation, for example, so I can foresee 996 GT3 and 996 Turbos continuing to creep up in value.
There’s also the impending switch to EVs to consider. While the next gen 911 GT3 will likely still have an ICE, the next cayman is confirmed to be EV only, effectively ending production on mid-engined GT department cars with an ICE. The 911 will soon follow, and I suspect at that point demand will hugely increase for these modern classics.
Great video and thanks for letting us know about autotrader tracker. On your last point about PCPs. Luckily the customer will be protected on PCP and it will be the finance company’s loss. But this will see let’s more 911s being handed back and then sent to auction by the finance company driving down prices even more. Hopefully lots of bargains at auction for us petrolheads.
Well done! Starting to see some evidence of same in NA. Lots of pre-owned inventory, but still almost no new inventory at dealers. But in the US,(unlike Canada) dealers can markup at any level subject to market demand the price of a new 911. For some models that would’ve been 25 to $35,000 per vehicle USD, above MRSP. That mark up seems to be shrinking (on the very few examples of new 911’s at the dealer) which suggests there may be more new car inventory headed to dealers. Let’s hope so!
Dealerships in Canada still have their ways of marking up “new” cars. They just make it a “used” one and vola~. Disgusting but hey it’s a free market if someone is willing to pay a premium then good on them. Buying anything above listed price never sits well with me.
great production, very useful info.
Good video! A friend of mine picked up a Panamera last week from a service and was taken round the back where there was a row of 911s.....apparently unsold. Like him I thought they were tough to get hold of. Interest rates have killed this market and the fact that Porsche will keep pumping out new cars to sell will only depress used prices more. The last few years of 911 specials reminds me of the Renault Clio Williams back in the day when much to the disgust of original owners, they brought out versions 2 and 3.
Interest rates are still quite low to be honest.
It's all about getting money out of people. Renault were just stopping money getting taken elsewhere by releasing the 2 and 3 at a time when VW dropped the ball.
You're absolutely right re the 992 turbo s. I bought a year old 992 c4s in 2020 before the prices went crazy. I was looking to change it last year and couldn't believe the quantity of turbo s on the market and the fact people had paid overs. As you said the turbo models never held their money. I think I might change the 992 for 991 GT3.
You are absolutly correct! I bought my wife a 2021 Carrera 4S. A year later they were calling asking if we would like to sell it. We kept it for a little while longer until she put 9000 miles on it. We called the dealership back and they were delighted to negotiate a price that made us money back and got us on a list for the GT Touring.
Fantastic video Jay!
I have a 991.1 GT3 and modified and 63,500 miles (four tours of Spain), no finance, but car insurance in London quintupled, so now have the expense of secure parking. Many people are being scared off by huge increase in insurance premiums (mine £2k to £11k)
Wow. I left the UK 20 years ago and had no idea about the increase in insurance premiums. Shocking.
Very interesting topic you covered here. After these fat years we’ve had you now see a returning to a „normal“. The effects you explained in a very interesting and informative manner seem not to have happened yet in Switzerland. I’m wondering if and when this will be the case here. Keep up the great work. Cheers from Switzerland
Unsure about this. Cars seem to be sitting longer on Autoscout....
Actually love the video! You're good at this. Also, is that a computer on your wall? :O Looks like it outruns a Porsche!
Well done Jaime.... Tom here from New Zealand. A very well researched review of where the world may be heading ... save your money and you might pick up a bargain.
I think, when you pick the right model, enjoy it for a while because you want to own and drive it, depreciation will not be your main problem. For example one of the last flat six Caymans. But you have to bare in mind that meanwhile you use a Porsche you will have pretty high maintenance costs which will presumably not be covered by the potential selling price.