What if Apartheid Never Happened? | Alt History
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- čas přidán 9. 01. 2022
- An alternate history of South Africa in which the United Party wins the 1948 election and as a result Apartheid never happens.
If you would like a video explaining the logic behind the scenario please tell me in the comments down below.
Please like and subscribe! - Zábava
Sometimes moderate compromises and solutions really do work! It's a shame they were not really tried, and are not being tried, in South Africa.
A better Southern Africa in this timeline but one question. Would Botswana be the same as it is today?
It'd go down a similar route but I think it might actually be better off as it would have more economically viable countries to trade with, plus South Africa wouldn't have been needlessly hostile to them so they'd have a better relationship, the national party government in our time didn't like Botswana's leader, particularly because he had a white British wife and the nationalist party hated interacial marriage (they actually made it a crime until the mid 1980s)
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 it also may remain a monarchy
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 So the least corrupt nation in all of Africa becomes even less corrupt? Sweet! Where’s the time machine?
Wish this happened to South Africa, maybe then South Africa would have a better government today and not a one party state.
Yes! This is an another point of divergence that I had considered myself and one that would be more likely. I enjoyed your take on this! 👍👍
Thanks, glad you liked it.
The good ending. It’s sad to see what could have been.
Surely a better timeline than ours, don't know if it could've worked, there was too bad influence from either URSS and USA, both wanted a strong outpost in the area, and we know how devastating can be their influence.
Indeed, Cold War politics did the region no favours.
More succesfull South Africa. Great country
I’m not white but I agree
@@omarsamaha2830 I'm a White (European) and I dearly wish to just see a world without racism, where everyone can prosper and different nations can cooperate
@@BartlomiejDmowski I’m Egyptian and so I’ve seen all forms of racism and enslavement and hope so as well
@@omarsamaha2830 Blessed. All the best!
With a South Africa where the Black:White ratio is closer to 2:1 than 10:1 would suggest that with a better education, the black population growth rate is slower, meaning the potential for wealth generation is higher (largely also due to the more education), and the white immigration is a much larger success, maybe most so when Britain was going through deindustrialization throws in the '70s. With the ANC not mismanaging things, and more economic opportunities (less economic pressures than irl), the white growth rate might even be closer to replacement level, maybe even at 2.1.
What do you think an alternate 2011 census might look like (seeing as 2011 was the most recent South African census), and for white immigration, what do you think the ethnic composition of this white population would look like?
More English likely, but the possibilities at the fall of the Eastern Bloc, immigration from Southern Europe, and from places like the Netherlands and Germany, which are culturally close, would be stupid not to pass up for Pretoria ittl. I have become fascinated with demographics, so I'd like to know your input on the situation of the main groups: Blacks, Whites, Coloureds, and Indians/Asians.
For an alternate census in 2011, I'll put the black population at 41 million (Around the same, but this'll be including Namibia so its actually a bit less.) Whites would be about around 20 million (assuming they have a high birth rate) I imagine Coloureds and Indians would stay about the same (depends on how popular interracial marriage is in this South Africa, as that might lead to a rise in the Coloured population) otherwise there'd be around 4.6 million Coloureds and 1.2 million Indians (maybe there'd be more of them too as some might leave from South Africa if they get kicked out of Uganda.) Interestingly enough South Africa are conducting a census this year, it'll be interesting to see what the results are. For European immigration, I imagine there'd be a lot of Brits, my grandfather knew a guy who briefly went to South Africa in the late 1940's (the guy had to come back as the national party removing our right of abode.) I could see a fair few Germans going to the South West province, though there'd be other European groups there too, since its such a lightly populated area, settling it wouldn't be too difficult. The OFS and maybe Transvaal would probably get more Dutch immigrants than the rest of the country, as for where the eastern Europeans would go, I'm not sure, probably spread across all the provinces, I think they'd become the largest source of immigration post cold war, granted some restrictions might be placed once the government goes into coalition with the ANC, though they might solve this by devolving it to the provincial governments.
the interesting thing is that white GDP per capita today in South Africa is about $27,000 & household income similar to France. So even if 60 million black & whites had a GDP per capita + household income quite a bit less than that, the SA economy today would still have roughly been equivalent to that of Spain
You forgot immigration from fellow African countries,assuming having a first world living standard,there will be immigrants coming from Nigeria,Zambia,Zaire,Ethiopia,Somalia ,etc hoping for better lives for themselves and thier families,this might increase the Bantu population by maybe several millions,65 million black people perhaps
A quick correction here, from 1951, Angola and Mozambique were not colonies, but provinces of Portugal
Seeing that the Portuguese Colonial War was the biggest factor for the Carnation Revolution, which was a left leaning coup against the autoritarian regime that was in power at the time, how would Portugal be nowadays, would they still be under the same regime or would they became a democracy?
I'm not sure, maybe estado novo gradually liberalised or maybe it gets overthrown by another group, it would have certainly taken longer that much is certain
Nice alternate history video as always.
Thanks, glad you liked it.
Would you be interested in doing something like this but for if Ross Perot won the 1992 U.S President election? Say if he never dropped out? He was the most recent third party candidate to actually win a substantial number of votes and some people think he might’ve stood a chance if he stayed in the race.
Sure, I don't know much about that election but I can look I to it
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 Some info just in case it might help:
• It was the USA’s first post-Cold War election. The Cold War ending I think helped drove Americans to vote for Bill Clinton since it was a new era and they were ready for change. However he kinda stole a lot of Perot’s rhetoric.
• Perot didn’t want the USA to ship out most of its factory jobs which happened IRL in the 90’s. If he was President, America might still be a big industrial producer/exporter today.
• Most importantly, if Perot won, America would have 3 parties duking it out instead of just 2, at least for a little while. Perot eventually created the Reform Party, and guess who was a member? Donald Trump. Trump ran as a Reformist in 2000.
@@morsecode980 thanks for the info, now this really does sound like an interesting timeline, and Trump being part of the reform Party.... I did not see that bit coming
That sounds cool
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 Yeah, Perot’s losses in 92 and 96 as well as Trump’s own loss in 2000 were what prompted him to join a major party and take it down from the inside - essentially what he did in 2016.
Nice vid, good job!
Thanks
@Jude Brazil sure
Sure I'll get to researching French Algeria, Portugal without segregation is easier, they were in the process of doing that before the empire fell.
Absolutely smashing video!!! Epic
Thank you
Maybe in this timeline South Africa is included in Canzuk, making it Canzuks
Maybe, then Canzuk would have two multi language nations.
Zucc
I can definitely picture the United Party appointing a black man as the Governor General at some point to appeal more to the native Africans. (kind of like Canada appointing an Inuk GG & New Zealand appointing a Māori GG)
I think that's a very good analysis and I could totally see them doing it too
In real life, De Villers Graaf was the leader of the United Party for a long time as well.
Indeed, 1956-1977 right?
Botswana would be more developed in this timeline
I agree
Zimbabwe too
really Rhodesia was surprisingly egalitarian if I'm being honest
@@Caseyy04 no
Wonderful video 🏆 🥇 🏅
Thank you
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 You're welcome :)
Great video bro but in this timeline would south africa ever transition into majority rule at all, what would be the population of each of the countries 4 races be, what would the anthem be and what would happen to mandela in this timeline. (sorry if these are too many questions i love this alt history :D)
Glad you enjoyed. I'd say that a transition to majority rule is possible but not guaranteed. I'd say it depends on how happy the average South African is with their quality of life, if they're satisfied, then things don't change, if they aren't then there would be a push for political change. As for racial composition, A conservative estimate would be something along the lines of: 69% black, 20% white, 9% coloured, 2% Asian, whilst an estimate closer to the one in the video would be like: 64% black, 25% white, 9% coloured, 2% Asian.
As for the anthem, maybe a modified version of die stem suid afrika or perhaps they either compose a new song or use another South African patriotic song, maybe Afrikaners Landgatone? As for Mandela... that's one that I don't know the answer to, though I doubt he'd have ended up in jail for as long in this world. Hope this answers your questions.
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352, my favorite idea is that Mandela either becomes Prime Minister at the head of the new coalition government, or maybe even becomes Governor-General. Are either of those scenarios likely? Probably not; but it's interesting to think about.
Could you do an alternate history video on if Hitler allowed Vichy France to re-militarise and they joined the Axis. I think in this scenario the war could possibly end in a stalemate as if Vichy France seized the Suez Canal and Iraqi oil fields from its base in Syria this would benefit the Axis greatly. British colonies in west Africa would be easy prey and with the french fleet in the Mediterranean it would be heavily contested. Also of cause Vichy France invades free french equatorial Africa.
Sure, I'll get it made
Just Beautiful!
Interesting turn of events for South Africa! Just out of curiosity; how do you think the SADF (South African Defense Force) would look like in terms of demographics? I know a few South African military vehicles and how they would fight, but would their military mainly consist of whites with blacks being in supporting roles or a fairly equal mix between the races?
Interesting question, I think in the early days it'd probably be white commanders only, blacks in supporting roles, by the late 70s they'd probably start accepting black officers. I imagine that the composition would probably be 3:1 in favour of blacks if one were to do a demographic of all the common soldiers, granted I think service in the military would probably only be mandatory for the whites initially though this'll probably change some time before the present.
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 thank you for your answer, I've been writing an alternate history scenario with 2-3 hotspots planned to be in Africa. This would be a global conflict and South Africa would be an obvious player in the southern hotspot.
Good content mate!
@@Korfax124 no problem, what you're writing sounds interesting, I look forward to seeing it.
Do a "What If Ross Perot became US President" next pls
Late comment. This video is amazing, I've been really looking forward to find a better version of South Africa for my fictional story (about fictional SAAF fighter pilots) and this is really what I need. By the wah, could you provide any reference for this video? Thanks!
Hi, glad you liked the video. I look forward to hearing about your story about the SAAF, any chance I could hear more about it?
I have some references, I'd recommend reading Richard Steyn's biography of Jan Smuts and Kenney's "Verwoerd: architect of apartheid" both give a pretty good insight into South African politics during this period. At the same time I'd recommend studying the Progressive Federal Party, albeit sources on their manifesto pledges are hard to find, I'd recommend reading up on Helen Suzman and possibly reading "the last Afrikaner leaders: a supreme test of power" both are useful for looking into the mindset of South African leaders. For some broader reading I'd suggest reading "The Great Betrayal" aka "Bitter Harvest" by Ian Smith, Rhodesia's last PM, whilst the book does show his political biases, it is helpful in the sense that it showcase for lack of a better term "the attitudes of of white southern Africans who disagreed with Apartheid yet at the same time disliked majority rule." At the same time this video is by no way the be all and end all of the subject, whilst I'm fairly happy with it there are some things I'd change if I were to remake it now and I kind of view this as a "best case scenario" with the other case being that South Africa essentially becomes an oversized Rhodesia with international recognition and nukes.
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 Thanks! I'm really interested in Jan Smuts' biography, I read a bit about Verwoerd, let's say he wasn't really a reputable individual. About my SAAF story? Well it's still a draft, the story set in 2020s where the SAAF is far more technologically advanced than it's real life counterpart. They have F-15Es, Gripens, Hornets, and their own indigenously designed Atlas Carver.
@@fgp1505th Cool, I look forward to hearing more about it, is it something that will be readable at some point in the future? and yeah Jan Smuts is a fascinating individual and I'd really recommend reading that biography of him.
I wonder had Steve Biko lived and had leadership of the ANC? And would Nelson Mandela join forces in negotiating with Degraff?
Interesting question, I think Steve Biko is much more likely to survive in this world, and without Apartheid maybe he and Mandela will attempt to negotiate with Graaff. In this scenario we'll say they all agreed to compromise though it is possible that there ends up being no agreement, perhaps much like in Rhodesia both sides dig in their heels and refuse to settle, hard to say for certain though I hope they would've been able to come to an agreement.
What if Trotsky led the Soviet Union instead of Stalin?
I don't know much about that one, but I'll look into it.
@Jude Brazil because you said so?
Less emancipation, but also fewer institutional issues, interesting.
Imo, I think the NP would have won at some point (alt hist though, it's fine) and that there'd be more internal resistance + agitation.
I'm curious though, do you have any sources for some of the decisions taken?
Thanks for your comment, indeed its an interesting prospect. The NP getting into power is quite plausible, most sources I've read mention the 1953 election as a quite likely one, though they might also pull a Rhodesian Front style victory in the 1960s. I can't remember all my sources of the top of my head, but some that I would recommend are "Seven Votes: How WW2 changed South Africa Forever", "Jan Smuts: Unafraid of Greatness" and "Verwoerd: Architect of Apartheid (Make sure to read the Kenney one though as I believe there is another book with the same title) these all give pretty good insight into South African politics in the 1940's and afterwards, having read "Verwoerd" I was surprised to discover just how divided the NP were on how to deal with the Cape Coloureds, hence my decision to have the more liberal (albeit it not by much as in the 50's they basically favoured a system similar to that in Rhodesia at the time) UP treat them as they do in the video. The NP split in the timeline is based on the UP split in our world which happened at a similar time. Some of the other research comes from some obituaries and articles on line, one of them about Div Graaff in particular. Another source is "The Great Betrayal" by Ian Smith, former PM of Rhodesia, who whilst he makes no attempt to hide his political views, does offer insight into the period, and devoted an interesting early segment of his book to why a UP win in 1948 would've been better for everyone (particularly referencing white rule, for example it was where I first found out that the Nats made the with hindsight mind numbingly stupid idea to restrict white immigration from 1948 to 1962). Hope that makes a good start on sources/recommended reading.
Idea: What if Napoleon won?
Nice idea, I'll get it made.
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 what if the soviets joined the axis?
What if Germany won the First World War? I know it's a topic seen on other channels but I wanted to know your perspective.
I'll get that timeline made
I wonder what the anthem of this country would be. Would it be the old one or the current one, perhaps an entirely different anthem is made?
Interesting question, I think in the early years "Die Stem Van Suid Afrika" would remain the anthem, though due to the higher level of immigration, the English version might have been a bit more common. It's also possible the "God save the Queen" remains the co-national anthem beside it. I don't think "Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika" would be likely to ever become the sole anthem, though if each province got its own anthem, I could see it being adopted by the ANC run provinces. Perhaps we see a merging of "Nkosi Sikelel'" and "Die Stem" like in our world, but I think it'd sound a bit different, perhaps more of the song would consist of "Die Stem". Or maybe they'd make an entirely new anthem, in which case it'd be interesting to see what they came up with.
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352
A quarter of the current anthem has the 'Die Stem's lyrics and half of it follows its melody. I think a new anthem would be most likely in a South Africa wherein 'reconciliation' isn't a main theme.
Idea: What if Mexico joined World War 1 (allied with Germany)?
I'm mexican, mexico would last less than 2 months
Mexico had absolutely nothing to gain from ww1. and if they did ally with germany and declared war on the usa, they would be curbstomped into oblivion by the usa for the second time.
Cool
Thanks
the good ending
Hey can you do liberia next
Sure, what part of Liberian history would you like it to be about?
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 when they become independent from the usa
ok, any particular timeline changes you want?
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 unlike our world liberia conquer some of Africa and become a African superpower
Cool, I'll get that done.
Can see Mandela become PM under UP alliance deal and GG after end of his tenure
Possibly so
What if Boers, English,Zulu, Venda, Xhosa, Saan, Khoi-Khoi,Shona,etc etc etc had adopted the cult of Makima, Revy, Cutie Honey, Marin Kitagawa, Trixie Tang, Judy Neutron, Marge Simpson, Wendy Corduroy, Lois Griffin, Sailor Moon and Maddie Fenton instead of Abrahamic shit?
The germanic and celtic tribes of the Lowlands and British Isles watching a Portuguese man killing all those sent to Christianize them and forcing them to worship his cartoon crushes
What if Japan won ww2?
Nice idea, I'll get it made
Neat
Thanks
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352 it’s pretty good
Idea
What if Partition never happened(Splitting of British India to India and Pakistan)
Thanks for the idea, I'll get it made
So the downfall would just be delayed until they get that type of leader in the year 2000
Not necessarily.
It would not make sense for the current flag to exist because it is clearly a flag made for the ANC government.
The current flag is a compromise flag, they actually went through many different designs before settling on that one
@@patrioticbritishmapper8352but it is clearly a flag that the ANC chose for its government. and they put the Dutch flag in the background to say it was the "rainbow" country. For me in this reality the flag would remain the same because it wouldn't make sense to change considering that it would not "represent apartheid" how they currently preach
@GabrielZuc they'd definitely change it, just might be different to the current one. There were a lot of proposals. The actual ANC proposed flag looked a lot different.
Vídeo idea
What if confederades Won american civil war?
Sure, I'll get it done
Sadly, the Afrikaners were more stubborn, and insular, than smart, pragmatic, or long-game thinkers. So IRL all of them in SA suffer today.
sad but true, strong racial undertones & superiority complex from religion, even till this day
Oftentimes, being so bullheaded and isolationist can just end up more of a hindrance than a help.
Can we have (what if British empire manage to keep america as it's colony)
Sure
What would Nelson Mandela life be in this alternate south aftica
A lot less time in jail. Albeit his rise to power would be different than in our world, hence I'm not sure he'd have quite the same international reputation he had in our world
Would a black middle class grow in the 80s or 90s
A better South Africa with a better Brazil forming a South Atlantic Treaty Organization. South version of NATO. Whose enemies are communists, western nations and fascist nations from a greener Antarctica. Led by the country called Draka. The Brazil Draka war would be called the Tropic War. Like the Cold War but more tropical. And more deadly if possible. Brazil would get Angola and Mozambique as military pact member states and South African allies.
And without Apartheid happening in South Africa, it’s possible that the western nations would aid South Africa against the fascist Draka.
It was the boers
Idea: what if the British empire turned into the imperial federation and the went to war with USA to regain its American colony it may improve relations with the Soviet Union and what would be the third world superpower?
This is what happens when you play too much HOI4
@@augustus218 actually I'm trying to learn how to play it I can't get my head around it for some reason so this is actually from videos about HoI4
@@augustus218 they did that's
If only that were true..
Based south africa
Best South Africa
Good borders!
Thanks
E
?
cringe channel
Cringe comment
Pingu....wha.....what happened to you?
@@tazerlizardproduction4560
He became disillusioned with the state and wants to seize the means of fishing