How good are wheels in commander
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- čas přidán 23. 07. 2024
- So how good are wheels. For 3 mana you can draw 7 cards that is great. But so dose everyone else as well. But let's look at the data and see what tournaments say about its results.
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I've been off wheels in Urza for a while now. The reasons being are that a) mono colored decks have much worse card quality than multicolored decks b) they do not generate card advantage rather a 3 to 1 disadvantage and c) the pop-off potential in low colored decks is usually lower so you wheel and pass to opponents that have better card quality and better pop-off potential.
I actually made a video on the topic as well a few months ago. My finding was that wheels are good includes if you have a) extremely high card quality b) super compact combos c) wheel payoffs like OBM and d) can be very proactive while also having protection like Grand Abolisher / Defense Grid.
So tl;dr wheels are good in high color decks with compact combos and protective pieces (ie BlueFarm / Atraxa) and especially good in dedicated Turbo decks (ie RogSi / RogThras)
Yea I think Urza list should be running mist of Lorien over time twister instead.
I would imagine that Wheel of Misfortune sees a lower win rate, in part, because it reduces the ability to use it "offensively" early on to wheel away someone's sculpted hand as they can just bid low enough to not wheel at all. Whereas if you are going for the breech plan, it is likely more important to fill your own graveyard, so it sees more wins.
That is a factor.
One really cool think about wheel of misfortune and the one ring .. you can use any amount of life since you get the protection.
I got a question regarding wheels.
1. Would it be a better alternative using wheels?
Ex. Valakut Awakening, Shattered Perception or Into the Fire.
2. Does it make a difference if you wheel the whole table or just yourself for advantage in the game?
I hope you could enlighten me before I try it.
I'm building a grixis deck for my next cedh league and you convinced me to add wheel of misfortune, great video thanks Mons!!!
its a good include there either gonna take damage or wheel there hand, I run it in rog si along with wheel of fortune and windfall, we don't play notion thief but we do play OBM. GL
Either:
Pick 0, take no damage, do not wheel.
OR
Pick 1, take 1 damage, and wheel.
OR
Pick 2, take 2 damage, and wheel. (just in case everyone else picked 1.)
Always good breakdowns! ❤❤❤
Great episode! Thanks for the shout out!
Your welcome.
Interesting stuff. Ideally should do comparisons between inclusion/exclusion perturbations for significance as well, not just vs without the cards; win rates may be significant compared to baseline but not each other. Also should apply Bonferroni corrections to see if the P-values hold for multiple simultaneous comparions of significance.
Out of the box one but Concecrated sphinx + wheel/wheels would be an interesting winrate to see
So consecrated sphinx with 3 wheels has 16 tournament games and a winrate of 12,68%
But if you play consecrated sphinx and wheel of fortune and timetwister only that is 65 tournament entrys and a winrate of 22,30%
What about smothering tilth with wheels? I play tivit and I think we are running TT and OBM@@cedhtv
I’d love to see a video like this but on draw punishing effects like bowmasters, sheoldred, Notion thief, etc
What do you mean? Like the winrate for those stax effects?
@@cedhtv basically? Similar to how you have this video set up but I’d love to see if there’s statistics as to whether the winrate goes up or down when you see those cards in game. (Idk if those are out there but if it is I’d love to find out)
I personally am on sans blue rn and am running sheoldred, mayhem devil, reckless fireweaver, and bowmasters. I have a will/max list that utilizes fireweaver to kill the table through dockside/will lines.
can you do Wheel of Fortune + Windfal l+ Thoracle + Bowmaster excluding Timetwister and Wheel of Misfortune please?
Ofc I can. The answer is: 358 Tournament entrys with those card combinations while also excluding the ones you meantioned: Winrate: 24,36% So it is quite good.
@@cedhtv tyvm
@@cedhtv how are you able to figure this out? it takes me forever to come up with an "average" decklist and a ton of copy and pasting and work in moxfield.
Could be interesting if instead of looking at cards in aggregate (like all decks with timetwister), you look at all X decks with timetwister (like only include S tier or A tier decks etc). That could help with the artificial wonrate deflation that decks like Urza or Prosper cause. Alternatively could look at decks that win at least 20% or so of games that include these cards. Sure it introduces new problems/biases in the data, but could give a more complete picture
I have some plans of looking at what the best players play. But that is a work in progress currently. But that will kinda help answer this.
Like most other card in it format it seems that wheels are contextual adds.
I’ve seen notion thief back on the rise. In some rog si lists too so wondering what the win rate on that is.
I don't know much of its current winrate. I only decided to look at as it is kinda important considering wheels. But I will keep my eye on it.
Is there good data on how Wheels interact with Smothering tithe? Emphasis on Jeskai grouping.
WoF + Twister + Tithe
WoF + Tithe
Twister + Tithe
WoF + Twister + Windfall + Tithe
That type of thing?
Thank you Mons, all these videos are incredibly insightful
WoF + Twister + Tithe = 22,30%
WoF + Tithe = 24,77%
Twister + Tithe = 24,68%
WoF + Twister + Windfall + Tithe = 19,06%
I hope that helps.
It does, thank you!
Value video topic
Thank you
I love ‘wheels’
I would like to hear your thoughts on Memory jar. I consider it to be a wheel.
I have two grixis EDH decks with wheels
Lord Xander-wheel of fortune, Windfall. Orcish Bowmaster, Dauthi VoidWalker, Opposition agent, Ragavan, Dockside extortionist, Gilded Drake, Cyclonic Rift, Deflecting Swat, Ad Nauseam, Fire Covenant, Yawgmoth’s Will, Toxic Delige. Lion’s eye diamond, Brain freeze, Underworld breach…
I’m trying to make this deck competitive
Nicol Bolas, The Ravenger-Wheel of Fortune, Memory Jar, Orcish Bowmaster, Ragavan, Opposition agent, Deflecting Swat, Waste Not, Cyclonic Rift, Necropotence, Fire Covenant, Yawgmoth’s Will…
This is a non-competitive ‘cute’ but fun deck
Personally it is a bit expensive. 5 mana is a lot. But I do like that you can cast it pass and have all mana ready next turn. Personally it is still a bit expensive for my taste. but you can play it I guess. I wouldent really recommend it still.
Thank you for the feedback
Cheers
What happens to the win rate when you only look at decks without red, and than include/exclude windfall and/or timetwister?
I don't remeber. I can try and keep this in mind. But I belive it will go down.
The notion of monoblue “dragging the wins down” broke my soul. Maybe you can do one of these analyzing which blue cards perform better and why? I mean, for the soul.
Hey mons have you seen the new dog/si deck? (14th doctor/k-9)
Yes I have seen it in my data. When I have more games from it I think I will take a look into it.
Sweet
12:21 What does the win rate look like if we also exclude Wheel of Misfortune?
Sorry for late respones. The answer is 436 tournament entrys and a winrate of 24% so it did drop quite a lot.
By themselves wheels draw your opponents 21 cards total. However 3 mana narset exists.
I would like a video on lower tier CEDH decks. Example I play gitrog.
I have been thinking about doing some budget cedh deck techs actully.
@@cedhtv that would help me alot actually!
I would add to the budget idea. I don’t personally play on a budget, but many kids in my shop do and I only have so many OG cards to lend them . . . 😅
There is a budget brew webpage, where they are listing deck list with the following price restrictions, 500/750/1000
Narset is good by wheels? Thanks
Narset parter of veils the mono blue plainswalker with wheel of fortune + timetwister + windfall = 152 tournament entrys and a winrate of 24,33% So yes. It seams good.
Prediction. 1 wheel is best. Timetwister has highest win rate. 2 wheels in grixis is most played
Yeah that is quite correct I would say. 2 wheels in grix is kinda the spot one I think.
@cedhtv I didn't account for mono Blue lists having such a low win rate!! I was thinking of twister in control builds like Tivit, Atraxa, Malcolm/Tymna, BlueFarm.
Ok so one thing I want to point out here is a different angle and that is of decks in mirror matches. wheels from one deck helping another wheels deck win. since the statistics dont point out if the wheels handed over a win to another wheels player. since izzet, rakdos ,grixis and blue farm are very common to face each other in tournament meta. they all share very common in strategies so even if one wins; 3 losses are counted for those color pairings and card pairings you are still flat lining almost a 25% win of that color pairing. kinnan and atraxa in top meta would certainly lower the win rate of natural colors to these pod matchups. since they typically are running far less wheels to begin with.
Basically im trying to explain density % of wheel deck population in pods of 4 help make a closer to 25% winrate for wheels since that is a very meta relevant strategy. basically the new math would be to see how many decks in top meta are not on any wheels and find their population density for 4 pod match up likliness.
Is time spiral too expensive for cEDH?
6 mana is a bit tricky. But I have seen players play it. It is not bad it is just not as good as other options. But I woulden't say no to any one playing it.
To showcase the power of Timetwister you could have selected Timetwister, Dockside, Demonic Tutor and exclude the rest of the wheels.
Similarly for Wheel of Fortune you could have selected Wheel of Fortune, Rhystic Study, Demonic Tutor and exclude the rest of the wheels.
I am personally running only Wheel of Fortune in my midrange grixis deck and I like it a lot. It is a combo piece with Breach that is also useful in turn 1.
oh yeah. HA! I totally forgot about that. SO SIMPLE! I will update the structure.
@@cedhtv glad I could help🫡
I love this channel 🙂