How many counterspells should you play in cEDH
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- čas přidán 18. 12. 2023
- We are often asking ourselves, what to cut? Well in this video we are looking into how many counterspells you should try and aim for. A ratio so to say. And if you have to many abowe the recommended level, then you have a suggestion from this video on what to cut.
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HOW THE SCATTER PLOTS WAS CREATED
Separate your data into bins depending on their number of counterspells. You can choose bins in different ways. Either in such a way, that the number of samples in each bin is about the same. Then the bins are usually of different width. Or you choose the bins to have equal width. Then you usually have different numbers of samples in each bin.
For 5 bins with about equal sample size you’d get 0-4, 5-10, 11-12, 13-13 (yes, only 13 in that bin) and 14-27 counterspells as the bins, where each bin has between 1000-1200 tournament entries or about 5000-6000 games. Only the bin with 13 counterspells is a bit smaller, but that’s still the allocation where bins are the most equal in sample size.
We then take all samples within a single bin and calculate their average winrate but weighted by their individual number of games. A 50% winrate from 8 games should have more weight than a 50% winrate from 2 games. This will give us the 5 points for our final plot you see in the video (5 bins = 5 points). Each of these points represents the whole range of their respective bin. For plotting purposes we put the single point in the middle of the bin it represents. For example the second bin goes from 5-10 and 7.5 is right in the middle of that That’s why the points are at 2, 7.5, 11.5, 13 and 20.5 counterspells. The win rates for the bins are in order: 19.7%, 21.3%, 23.8%, 23.2% and 21.4%.
#mtgcommander #cedh #edhgameplay #magicthegathering - Hry
For optimal mental damage you should play all of them and 0 win cons
hahaha.
talrand
It was fun talking with you about this topic. Thanks for including me :)
I hope I get to work with you again!
I think this will be one of your more popular videos. Nice job on the heat map
I don't think so. I knew this video couldn't get many views as I made it. If you want viewers you need to make deck techs about new commanders. Or top 10 best green cards.
This is something I see a lot with new magic players. They think a control deck is all counterspells. But you still need removal, card advantage, win cons, etc. Especially in EDH, you can't counter everything.
i dont worry about new players
Been waiting for this video, before I even watch I have an answer- 10-5. I usually run 8 in my decks, but that’s averaging since not all of my decks have heavy counterspell colors.
Your kinda spot on. I think 10-11 might be the mark.
Good analysis, Imo 16 to 18 instants is a good way to respond to what happens during a game although there's some decks out there that prefer more gas instead of interaction
I like this. I got Conner assassin deck. I’ll play 10 counter spells, and more removal.
“Turn it up to 11” - Spinal Tap (movie)
Fun video content
thanks
I have a CEDH grixis deck
About a dozen counter spells appear to be the magic number
Thank you.
i noticed that i was already running close to the optimal number of counterspells in my decks and it is surprising to see that the stats somewhat confirm what i felt like the ideal number was. i did it more or less as a ratio of counterspells to the number of draw effects, so i could calculate how many more draws i would need to get to a somewhat protected win state.
My personal experience is telling me this number as well. It is kinda where I aim when I build decks to.
It depends on colors honestly; when I’m playing dega (mardu) I run as many as I can fit, even the bad ones like mana tithe because they ALWAYS catch someone and give you value. No one thinks Withering Boon is coming until it does. But this is strictly my personal take from my meta, apply it to yours with a grain of salt.
well mana tithe is not a bad one wdym? you could play lapse of certainty or dash hopes
Loved the vid!
Thank you!
It also definitely depends on what type of deck you're playing. Control decks will play a few more, turbo decks will play fewer in general.
In my main deck (midrange / control) I'm playing:
FoW, FoN, Fierce Guardianship, Mental Misstep, Mindbreak Trap, Offer, Swan Song, Fluster, Miscast, Spell Pierce, REB, Delay, Mana Drain, Muddle the Mixture (and Deflecting Swat)
So 14-15, depending if we count Swat. But Muddle is also often a tutor. It's in Temur so no black tutors available.
yeah but is that because you learned it like that or because its the right thing to do? maybe its totally wrong
@@henkdachief
Maybe but so far my winrate in the 3 cEDH tournaments I played was 50%, 33% and 50% so it's probably not "totally wrong".
@@InmAncalagon im saying you will not find out if you should play with or without spell pierce, delay, offer, muddle. makes it your winrate go up or down? just by counting counterspells you just cant tell. i agree it depends on the deck but also on the counterspell and i dont agree that you should go by some rule of thumb where you say "this is a turbo deck i should cut some counters!" this is a strategic point first, not really a math decision.
Pregame guess 10-11.
I have noticed when u a graph of interaction the graphs seems to she 8-12. But most seems to avg 9. Most winning lists have ~10
You were kinda spot on. 10 is good number for it.
Cool
I really like to use the same formula they use on the database to determine how many lands you run
Lands ÷ Deck size × cards drawn
28÷99×7
Gives you 1.9797...
So on average you see 1.9 Lands for every seven cards Seen.
So for example let's say we are a control deck, we are reactive alot
Let's try 14 counterspells.
14÷99×7
equals .9898...
On average you see 1 counterspell per seven cards.
So like as a basic formula you can predict the average opening hand.
Lands 28÷99×7 =1.9
Ramp 18÷99×7 =1.2
Counterspells 14÷99×7 =.98
Tutors+Draw 18÷99×7 =1.2
So your average mulligans have
2 Lands
1 Ramp
1 Counterspell
1 Tutor/Draw
2 "Other" And/Or Duplicates
Do you have a list of cards included as a counter spell? I typically think of veil of summer as a counter spell even though it isn't really one
I think it is a 133 card in the list. But there are a lot of strange counterspels. Like a lot of strange ones.
The answer is approximately 11 counter spells. Now you don't have to spend 8 minutes of you life listening to this guy ramble. You're welcome.
Datatog is the goat
That will make him happy.
Too kind :)
Data analytics and mtg ❤
I'd like to see this analysis on a deck by deck basis or at least by category like midrange. I think it could be more definitive.
That is kinda of the development plan for this.
Going to my first in person cEDH tournament this Saturday! Hope it goes well will let yall know
Good luck!
@@cedhtv update, got 1 win and a draw. Was on a fringe deck bc it was 15 proxy. So I took my “too strong for casual” Rielle and powered it up.
I need to work on politics (and play a real deck) def punted a few games I could’ve won
my boi knows rstudio
Honestly if ya could find counter spells that synergize with your commander or game plan the better they will be example being Mystic Snake as it is a 4 cmc simic creature that has flash that when it is summoned counter target spell and is usually played in a Kaseto Orochi Archmage deck. People never expect the creatures with flash being counter spells and they expect Ertai Resurrected even less to counter a triggered ability despite him also being able to counter activated abilities and or spells. Creatures that can counter spells when they enter are great as they double as chump blockers when you finally summon them or in my case a unblockable snake that gets +2/+2 until end of turn and considering Simic Value engine....yeah that counter spell might take someone out next turn literally lol like so much mana especially with the Kamigawa snakes that generate mana when i attack even i can do over 40 damage in 1 turn and have 40 mana open for my next big spell such as pumping counters onto Helix pinnacle forcing them to deal with that while win lines A, B, and C are underway with line D "SUPRISE INFECT!!" with Triumph of the hoard waiting to be cast
Line A is the easiest play some snakes pump them with the commander and Magus of the Candelabra with a Umbral Mantle infinite mana combo and swing for game, line B can happen by accident with the land fall and snakes damaging triggers causing me to draw my deck then Lab man wins, Line C is just pure beat down since i could get enough mana and cast a crap ton of snake tokens then counter spell a Overloaded Cyclonic Rift (Weird i know classic beatdown in a competitive deck lol) and it's not like they can stop me either as i grant my creatures unblockable thanks to Kaseto even if they are not snakes so my counter spell Frilled Mystic can get in on the fun lol, Line E is just the Helix Pinnacle a small distraction that would hopefully get people to forget about how easily this deck can pivot between the 5 wincons lol
The best part being the lines can actually overlap each other if need or opportunity such as A with D as in 3 unblockable creatures with infect that gives 10 poison counters. Yes i know i made this into a complicated deck but it is fun to play but in my defense Simic naturally complicate things lol
Before you ask why Lab man and not Oracle it's simply because i have the option.
Do the graphics presented in this video consider Deflecting Swat and Mindbreak Trap as counterspells?
In the video, he counted Mindbreak Trap, but you can consider Deflecting Swat.
Deflecting swat is on the list of counterspels. It is often used like a counterspel. It definatlu isen't a real counterspel but it really works like one kinda. Instant speed interaction that can affect the stack more or less.
Should use some Wilcoxon or T-tests to compare the win rates and see if the overlapping variances are significant or not. Don't forget the Bonferroni corrections for P-Vals as well.
The intervals you see in the binned scatterplot are the 95% intervals via bootstrap sampling. So visually the only thing we can say is that bin 3 is statistically different (with a significance level of 0.05) from bins 1&2 (non overlapping intervals). For the others we have no visual aid and have to check directly. I do this via bootstrap sampling aswell and the following statements are statistically significant (with a significance level of 0.05): 1
My take is that it varies based on the deck. Urza gets away with running a lot of them because polykraken op
But urza is struggling. Currently looking at urza from tournament resualts it is not doing good. I just looked at urza. From 47 tournament entrys Urzxa has 15,42% average winrate. So maybe playing a lot of counterspels in urza hurts urza?
@@cedhtv it depends on the version of urza that you're playing. Poly kraken is the one that usually runs extra counters cause hullbreaker horror is one of maybe 2 win conditions in the list. Other urzas don't typically run that many counters. However, urza is falling off due to there being more etb hate nowadays and activated ability hate. Drana and Linvala directly counter urza for example.
Great video~ If I may ask for advice tho...
I like to play dumb stuff like +1/+1 counters or wide board decks like Jetmirs, but currently Im working on a "Go shintai of life's origin" deck. So far, my interaction cards are as follow:
Removal: aura shards, honden of infinite rage, doomwake giant (it usually kills most tokens), swords to plowshares, go shintai of hidden cruelty. assassin's trophy, boseiju who endures, karmic justice, oko thief of crowns
Board clears: Supreme veredict, farewell, vanquish the horde
Counterspells: Dovin's veto, arcane denial, counterspell
I play in a very combat matters group, so creatures are a huge deal. If anyone have suggestions, please share them with me if you want. I may not have powerhouses like force of will or manadrain, but I do have options if my list is lacking.
I think you have the correct mindset. But might need to just impprove the card quality and replace those cards. In generall I think will jsut do a lot.
Let me put it like this. The cards your playing are correct to play there are just better versions of them. Having bordwhipes is good. You have that. But you can have better versions of bordwhipes. I don't think adding more is the correct thing tho. Same with removal. Counterspels could be more tho. But considering you might play vs a lot of creature deck maybe the ocunterspel count is all you need.
I would like to recommend fire covenant. It is a great bordwhipe. Also dress down!
@@cedhtvthx a lot! I didnt knew those cards, but they seem promising.
I play 11 in my Tymna Malcolm deck:
Pact
Misstep
Offer
Dispel
Fluster
Miscast
Swan
Guardianship
FON
FOW
Mindbreak Trap
I removed spell pierce but sometimes I play it.
Those are the ones you want to play
I'd rate Spell Pierce over Miscast usually
i only play the free counterspells or 1 cmc ones. keeping 2 mana open is gamelosing.
I will agree to this. I don't play any 2 cmc counterspels.
No mana drain?
I'm play 12 counterspell and 5 removal on my Inalla deck
Sounds spot on I think.
Simple. Just play mono black. 🌚
Time to go cut 46 counters from my Baral deck
Yeah. That is a good start :P hahaha
3.
I was hoping a lot players would just write 0. That could have been a fun statement.
how about Removal?
That is a different group I do plan to look into. But I don't have the answer jet.
@@cedhtv I think it's harder as you can use spot removal, boardwipe, sacrifice effects, bounce, phase out, and others. Many such as blue march, are flexible and can be protective tools as removal.
commenting while watching this: on average i am playing 7-10 counterspells..
I think that is a good hit.
This is a facile approach to deckbuilding. Interaction comes in many forms, not simply counterspells. Rather than just counting the number on counterspells in a list, a good list will focus on interaction that stops on-meta wins. This can even be done in something like abzan, to great effect. A better approach would be to list all the interaction together, then analyze those results. For instance, neither Endurance or Hushwing Gryff is a counterspell, but they can both stop a Thoracle.
You have confused interaction with counterspells.
I am going to look at other forms of interactions to, like stax. But also trying to catigorize midrange vs turbo. But that is a work in progress.
How much counterspells should you play in winconless Baral? =)
hahahaha. That is a good one.
Lol i was right
Can you fix the video name?
Fixed.
Me and my family have been watching your videos for years! Thank you for the great vids 👍 (i wasnt trying to be that guy, sorry if it came off that way, I'm a fan not a hater 😃)
Oh don't worry. I often misspelled things and totally understand.
@@cedhtv 😀All g have a great day!!
there arent even 20 good counterspells in magic, this video feels meaningless
That is actully not correct but lets say we have 15 good counterspells. The answer we got from this video is that the correct amount kinda is 12. This means that even if we have 15 good counterspells you should still not play all 15.
Second. It is hard to say how many good counterspells we have. If you ask people what are the good counterspells you will have different answers. This video was also showing what are the good counterspells kinda.
So I don't really agree. But everything vrais from person to person how much they get out of it.