Why half of all Premier League transfers fail

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  • čas přidán 15. 05. 2024
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    When your team makes a big signing you are filled with hope, and expectation that this new player will transform your fortunes and push your team to the next level. But it doesn’t always work like that. In fact, according to research it doesn’t work like that 50% of the time.
    Jon Mackenzie analyses this research and applies it to the biggest Premier League transfers made during the 2022/23 season.
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Komentáře • 403

  • @Mase1591
    @Mase1591 Před 10 měsíci +437

    The interpersonal aspect is so overlooked (understandable considering we never truly know what goes on behind closed doors) but it's probably the biggest determining factor in whether a transfer works out or not. To take your Scamacca example: there's been a few reports that a big reason he and West Ham's other big signings from abroad took ages to settle was that Mark Noble retired in the summer and his replacement as club captain, Declan Rice, did a horrible job of helping them integrate into the dressing room environment/life in a new country. Captaincy is one of those things at football clubs that seems like it's superficial and easy to not take seriously, but there's a lot of soft skills involved and it's more important off the pitch than on.
    Even a basic thing like languages spoken is massively underplayed. If I were running a Premier League academy, I'd be drilling the need for second language acquisition into young players. If you could get to a conversational level in French/Spanish/Portuguese, you could speak to the overwhelming majority of foreign players/coaches/managers that come to England and you'd make yourself invaluable in the squad as a bridge between different parts of the dressing room.

    • @Iron-Bridge
      @Iron-Bridge Před 10 měsíci +45

      I like your point about second language acquisition. Great point ☝️

    • @GuinessOriginal
      @GuinessOriginal Před 10 měsíci +6

      You’d think that West Ham wood have continued to employ someone like Mark Noble to cry on doing those types of off the field activities.

    • @GuinessOriginal
      @GuinessOriginal Před 10 měsíci +9

      @@Iron-Bridgethe problem with that is, owners and chairman will see a second language as making their academy players more desirable abroad and giving them greater options to seek playing opportunities elsewhere. Look at the success sancho and Bellingham have had at Dortmund.

    • @brenolelis1883
      @brenolelis1883 Před 10 měsíci +21

      I think the importance of interpersonality is having a revival right now, Ancelotti being a great example of how a good relationship with and between the players can be as important as the tactical aspect.
      We Brazilians are having this discussion right now with the "relacionismo" of Fernando Diniz having succeeded in the first half of the season and his takeover as manager of the seleção.

    • @iamheretopleaseyou
      @iamheretopleaseyou Před 10 měsíci +21

      very good point, I come from Czech Republic and a lot of our players used to flop due to the fact that they just could not understand anyone properly (Poborsky in ManU f.e.)
      even now, in 2023 when elementary schools have to teach you english and better ones have another language as optional we still have players that flop and come back and say how a factor was "missing the Czech dressing room atmposhere"
      I always wonder how come I get that this has to be an issue you need to get in front of and professional footballers, coaches etc. just underestimate the importance
      On Scamacca, I just don't get how West Ham transfer policies are set. If you take how good Haller was before he joined and continues to prove after he left. Why did they buy a player that does not fit the style of play? How can that happen, specially two times over and both record fees for the club. It is actually totally criminal failure and if I were Hammers fan I would be demanding some heads rolling for that.

  • @RichMitch
    @RichMitch Před 10 měsíci +468

    Kalvin looking very guilty there

    • @slayingroosters4355
      @slayingroosters4355 Před 10 měsíci +10

      It's just the British journalists sucking him off despite his shocking season 💀😂

    • @TheDarkKnightRacist
      @TheDarkKnightRacist Před 10 měsíci +16

      @@slayingroosters4355 well at least Man City succeed on relegating Leeds by stole their key player.

    • @GuinessOriginal
      @GuinessOriginal Před 10 měsíci +12

      @@slayingroosters4355the same journalists who were slating Grealish last season?

    • @michaelrichardson6125
      @michaelrichardson6125 Před 10 měsíci +2

      @@TheDarkKnightRacistby stole ? Did you ever go to school ?

    • @ewancartney9360
      @ewancartney9360 Před 10 měsíci +3

      Well rn he’s stealing a living so it’s understandable

  • @YoshiJoshi_
    @YoshiJoshi_ Před 10 měsíci +173

    Which makes it all the more bizarre that clubs view their Academy players as profit centres for sale, rather than a lower risk option to improve their own sides. A number of those variable factors can be eliminated when you have 5-10 years of knowledge of players (people!), an existing connection to a club's culture and an Academy that can develop players in a philosophy that aligns with your first team

    • @maciejbala477
      @maciejbala477 Před 10 měsíci +18

      I feel like every club with a decent youth system misses out on a ton of value by not giving youngsters enough of a chance. Sure, they often don't turn out that good, but maybe they could if they developed

    • @AP-o2
      @AP-o2 Před 10 měsíci +6

      Real Sociedad does this really well

    • @ifstar3
      @ifstar3 Před 10 měsíci +15

      ​@@AP-o2this example tells you why, big teams don't trust young players, they need to win, unlike real sociedad.

    • @Growlizing
      @Growlizing Před 10 měsíci +2

      The club philosophy changes every 2 years because they change managers and the sporting directors are clearly not prioritized.

    • @LordSeth-hf8ew
      @LordSeth-hf8ew Před 9 měsíci +7

      i agree entirely, this is why clubs philosophy should always be larger than the managers

  • @bungaIowbill
    @bungaIowbill Před 10 měsíci +199

    1:38 You can only compute the joint probability by multiplying the separate probabilities like that for independent random variables. Obviously, these are not independent: if a player doesn't fit the style, the manager is less likely to like them. If they have fitness issues, they will likely not be as good as thought. If the player is not as good as thought, it is more likely that the current player is better. Etc

    • @chchch.1212
      @chchch.1212 Před 10 měsíci +14

      came here to make the same comment. probably in reality they look at a set of (as much as possible) uncorrelated markers..

    • @ugoeze7360
      @ugoeze7360 Před 10 měsíci +4

      You beat me to it.

    • @mattbyrne8202
      @mattbyrne8202 Před 10 měsíci +3

      How would you calculate it?

    • @bungaIowbill
      @bungaIowbill Před 10 měsíci +21

      @@mattbyrne8202 The only thing we can do in general is to give bounds: the upper bound is 90% (assuming all events are perfectly correlated), while the lower bound is 40% (assuming each negative outcome is always separate) -- each event happens with probability 100-10%, so all of them happen with probability at least 100-6*10%. This lower bound is called "the union bound," which is a very useful technique as it allows you to handle any probability distribution with basically no info. Even though the bound is crude, it can often be enough.
      To compute it exactly, you would need to know the joint probability distribution. If you look at each event separately, you have the so-called marginal distributions. For independent random variables, the joint distribution is the product of the marginal distributions. For dependent random variables, you need to consider conditional probabilities, giving answers to questions like: what is the probability that the manager doesn't like the player, given that the player does not fit the style?

    • @jacobweddell2438
      @jacobweddell2438 Před 10 měsíci +8

      This is arguable and depends on your interpretation of the wording of those variables e.g. the manager 'liking' them could mean on a personal level, which you could argue is independent from style of play, 'fitness' could relate to injuries and not talent or skill etc.

  • @mehdiahsan4042
    @mehdiahsan4042 Před 10 měsíci +22

    Jon "Mackerels are considered some of the most nutritious fishes. They're an excellent source of protein, vitamins B2,3,4 and B12 and Vitamins" Mackenzie

  • @hb3393
    @hb3393 Před 10 měsíci +11

    well damn, that take on Fofana aged well

  • @bradd__
    @bradd__ Před 10 měsíci +35

    I think brighton does this very well that's why they buy low risk players because in everything u only have about 10% ends up working and sometimes the 10% end up overarching and the 90% are just average

  • @jebus89
    @jebus89 Před 10 měsíci +104

    I'd have loved Jon to look at Damsgaard. I remember being really excited that Brentford signed him and their recruitment has been one of their stand out qualities, so it's interesting that he's not worked out so far.

    • @fpldirectory6753
      @fpldirectory6753 Před 10 měsíci +1

      Doesn't he have a health condition?

    • @AdamOBrien29
      @AdamOBrien29 Před 10 měsíci +1

      Could come good this season

    • @megamega5146
      @megamega5146 Před 10 měsíci +5

      It seems to me that he played well when they were playing more attacking and were dominating the ball , but once they were under pressure from a more possession based side then he struggled

    • @TheDarkKnightRacist
      @TheDarkKnightRacist Před 10 měsíci

      dude, relax, it's Brentford we are talking about, even Ivan Toney can be a star there, give him time

    • @TheDarkKnightRacist
      @TheDarkKnightRacist Před 10 měsíci

      dude, relax, it's Brentford we are talking about, even Ivan Toney can be a star there, give him time

  • @yong-haotan6576
    @yong-haotan6576 Před 10 měsíci +11

    The success of transfer is a coin toss - that makes Brighton's recruitment strategy - management and players alike, all the more impressive.

    • @VSS031
      @VSS031 Před 10 měsíci +2

      Still Can't Believe They Paid 2.5m Quid For Mitoma😂😂😂

    • @epicmarschmallow5049
      @epicmarschmallow5049 Před 9 měsíci

      Eh plenty of teams have been lauded for seemingly solving the transfer market after a season or two of great recruiting before regressing back to the mean after a few years. Swansea and Southampton both spring to mind and they're not looking so great right now

  • @Lfcme
    @Lfcme Před 10 měsíci +11

    The music in the background of this has a breakdown that is way too much, its so distacting when the musicians start going foolish

  • @daviesugo7641
    @daviesugo7641 Před 10 měsíci +5

    The fofana injury segment seems prophetic now.

    • @philipmeisterl
      @philipmeisterl Před 9 měsíci

      Acl tear means this season he will also miss time because of knee problems meaning he hasnt had a season where he had no knee injuries

  • @akachiedoggy5711
    @akachiedoggy5711 Před 10 měsíci +84

    As a chelsea fan, your Fofana verdict hurt, I never knew he had such a glaring injury record in his knees. He was meant to be our long-term defender till 2030

    • @titofernandez1500
      @titofernandez1500 Před 10 měsíci +44

      ????? Everyone knew this. Fofana is super talented but he has never had an injury-free season in premier league. That was the biggest weakness for Leicester when they were pushing top 4 two-three seasons ago.

    • @backwardhippo6586
      @backwardhippo6586 Před 10 měsíci +12

      Lmao not a lot of thinking went on that transfer window. Did it?

    • @cauliflornication
      @cauliflornication Před 10 měsíci +8

      Same...now that I think about it, its kinda dumb signing him with that amount of money. Chelsea board is kinda dumb to tbh 😒

    • @HayKay_
      @HayKay_ Před 10 měsíci +8

      Fans were aware of Fofana's
      injury history, except for the Board who were eager to throw money 💰 at players. Didn't need a soothsayer to know that the injury will persist. Chelsea overpaid and he is on a 7-year contract. Chelsea has signed Phil Jones 2.0 😢

    • @BubblesChika
      @BubblesChika Před 10 měsíci

      It shouldn't be any surprised. Chelsea's transfer policy has been shocking. Todd trying to copy Roman's bygone model of just names was really foolish. That old, worn out model is why Chelsea are trapped with a rotten, nasty man like Lukaku

  • @ferdidolan9187
    @ferdidolan9187 Před 10 měsíci +13

    Please make a Part 2 explaining other players/transfers or make this into a series

  • @PhantomRaspberryBlower
    @PhantomRaspberryBlower Před 10 měsíci +6

    Hate to disagree with the prof's maths. But that assumes that all those variables are completely independent from one another. Whereas as we can see from the examples that's not true.
    A manager not liking a player, then playing them out of position and reducing their minutes can result in a underperformance in the player and a greater likelihood of fitness problems. These factors are not random probabilities but associate issues that can be identified and addressed which is probably why some clubs have a much higher hit rate than others. (e.g. Brighton vs West Ham)

  • @Pinkpopcornmusic
    @Pinkpopcornmusic Před 10 měsíci +3

    Hang on - so
    Sterling / 50M / 6 Goals / 3 Assists in 29 apps (1 G/A per > 3matches) = Bad
    Antony / 80M / 4 Goals / 2 Assists in 25 apps (1 G/A per > 4 matches) = ok?

    • @Flash4ML
      @Flash4ML Před 10 měsíci +2

      He did the funny little spin thing like three times, he gets a pass

  • @jordanb8119
    @jordanb8119 Před 10 měsíci +4

    John is legit the most well researched and eloquent presenters I’ve ever watched. Absolutely top class and love seeing his videos pop up!

  • @sambaker2611
    @sambaker2611 Před 10 měsíci +7

    In order to be able to multiply those chances of success together you also have to assume that the events are statistically independent which is arguably not a great assumption. A player who doesn't fit the style may be far likelier to have personal issues aswell for example

  • @robertparker3281
    @robertparker3281 Před 10 měsíci +2

    I think another thing to consider is how players need time to learn and the more detailed the manager then the longer it can take to adapt. I think the second year of signings is a better period to try and determine if it was a success or not.

  • @TheMaestromMephisto
    @TheMaestromMephisto Před 10 měsíci +42

    I disagree with Fabio Viera having a bad season, he hasnt had enough time to judge, and the few time he has, has been ok, Arteta is blending him slowly into the team

    • @blast473
      @blast473 Před 10 měsíci +9

      Not enough minutes means bad season

    • @fugaziishime
      @fugaziishime Před 10 měsíci +12

      ​@@blast473when did you start watching football?

    • @farhanrahman7119
      @farhanrahman7119 Před 10 měsíci +1

      He was bad

    • @eleonarcrimson858
      @eleonarcrimson858 Před 10 měsíci +1

      i saw him play in the europa league. He was not good.

    • @william_SMMA
      @william_SMMA Před 10 měsíci

      ​@@eleonarcrimson858not good doesn't equal bad though

  • @1258-Eckhart
    @1258-Eckhart Před 10 měsíci +3

    That aggregated risk calculation is amazing - over six factors rated as 90% positive you get an aggregate of 53% - just over a coin toss. But the number six is a random number. You could equally have sixteen factors, and I assume that the calculated risk would then be 50/50.

  • @TDatHa
    @TDatHa Před 10 měsíci +2

    Today Wesley suffered another injury. ACL this time. Tough for the young lad

  • @Khigha87
    @Khigha87 Před 10 měsíci +42

    Also if you buy a player who plays in a specific position and thrives in a certain system only to play him in a different position and system, you reduce his and the team's chances at success. Pogba was legendary in a midfield 3, United never played a midfield 3. I think it's better to let the player's abilities decide on position changes more than the team's needs, because the team needs each player at their best.

    • @GuinessOriginal
      @GuinessOriginal Před 10 měsíci +10

      A player who can only play in a certain position and system isn’t much of a player. They wouldn’t get anywhere City or Liverpool’s teams, for example. Pogba was easily good enough to have played well in any position in any system, he was just more interested in social media and haircuts than working hard in the pitch. If he’d had Keane’s with ethic and determination he’d have won a balllon d’or and a lot more medals.

    • @leehenry5764
      @leehenry5764 Před 10 měsíci +1

      If a player can't adjust then he's not that good then

    • @ryan13aj
      @ryan13aj Před 10 měsíci +5

      @@GuinessOriginal Strongly disagree. As a Liverpool fan, I don't think players such as Salah, Mane, Firmino, Wijnaldum and Henderson would perform as well as they have at Liverpool elsewhere. Wijnaldum and Mane's poor form since leaving Liverpool is testament to that.
      No matter how talented a player is, they'll need to play in a system and position that suits their abilities in order to maximise their potential. Salah would likely be less effective at Manchester City, while De Bruyne probably wouldn't suit Liverpool quite as well, but both players are still world class.

    • @gbrl433
      @gbrl433 Před 10 měsíci +2

      @@GuinessOriginalyou’d think someone watching videos on this channel would have better opinions than that

    • @GuinessOriginal
      @GuinessOriginal Před 10 měsíci

      @@ryan13aj Salah would do superbly at city and de bruyne at Liverpool would have given them an another 2-3 titles and another champions league or two and probably the quad last year. Liverpool getting rid of players that are burnt out and past their best proves nothing, and there’s always going to be exceptions to the rule. At the top level of football, players should be good enough to be able to adapt to different systems and play in multiple positions. Pep has consistently shown that they are.

  • @szukamymamy
    @szukamymamy Před 10 měsíci +21

    Great video, would like to see similar but 2 season after transfer in. It would give John more data to analysis and we allow players to understand leauge and manager way of playing footbal. Also some players could show his quality despite injuries or being out of 1st choice.

  • @honestarsenalfan7038
    @honestarsenalfan7038 Před 10 měsíci +4

    Fabio Vieira joined a season too late, he would have had a better shot in 21/22. I'm very locked in, I want to see him go boom!

    • @matthewmason8982
      @matthewmason8982 Před 10 měsíci +2

      He had a slight injury when he joined and is more a transfer for the future. He’s a “meh”, so far, but I have faith.

    • @kisslevente3982
      @kisslevente3982 Před 10 měsíci +1

      @@matthewmason8982 He is still extremely talented. He will do well next season.

    • @sigfigronath
      @sigfigronath Před 10 měsíci +1

      The stuff John said or highlighted apply to him also, injury, better player in his position, lack of minutes, confidence, language ect. For me its the confidence and physicality, the guy is very talented.

  • @gordonkelly
    @gordonkelly Před 10 měsíci +20

    Paqueta rating a little harsh. Ended the season on fire (not a WH fan)

    • @maciejbala477
      @maciejbala477 Před 10 měsíci +2

      sure, but at the start he barely did anything, and you could argue he was disappointing then. But I'm sure he'll do well next season now

    • @gordonkelly
      @gordonkelly Před 10 měsíci +3

      @@maciejbala477 yep, but how you end is a big deal. Arguably their second most influential player at the end of the season.

  • @alasdairmitchell375
    @alasdairmitchell375 Před 10 měsíci +6

    Top quality video Goblin KING

  • @Gonyos
    @Gonyos Před 10 měsíci +2

    One of the worst transfer is Naby Keita. I didn't say if he's not good enough for Liverpool. He's just unlucky with his injury prone. Everytime I see him on the pitch I always hoping he is not fall into awkward position. Unfortunately he's always get knocked and got instant injury for long time. Feel sad for him.

  • @akunwanneprosper7016
    @akunwanneprosper7016 Před 10 měsíci +6

    What if Phillips is just for Homegrown quota 😏

    • @sigfigronath
      @sigfigronath Před 10 měsíci

      Nah its for Rodri replacement / backup. He was unlucky that Rodri was so good and he was injured.

  • @TheDarkKnightRacist
    @TheDarkKnightRacist Před 10 měsíci +6

    it's not fail until their contract are out or they moving to other club, look at Grealish, his first season was shiet, but the second season, he became key player in Man City treble. not every players can be a savior in their debut season, on the other side, People said Lukaku will be a game changer for Chelsea after he score in his first game against Arsenal, and he is no where to be seen right now. just relax and trust the process.

    • @098saw
      @098saw Před 9 měsíci

      I think the graelish transfer is him getting used to the complicated guardiola systems as well. He's a moodmaker as well which probably livens up the changing room!

  • @gimmibox
    @gimmibox Před 10 měsíci +2

    Jon moves his hands much more frantically standing up than in their podcasts

  • @ItsJesssee
    @ItsJesssee Před 10 měsíci +29

    I do think Premier League teams jump on the hype of players too much tho without doing background checks

    • @HarryS05
      @HarryS05 Před 10 měsíci +9

      Have to disagree with you. They don’t base their transfers off social media gossip. It’s the best league in the world and every team invests heavily in recruitment departments with access to all sorts of data and analytics. Managers don’t sign players based on hype trains but rather ones who will fit the system and perform a role efficiently. Evidently this isn’t always the case but that doesn’t meant that the recruitment strategy is based on ‘hype’

    • @AP-o2
      @AP-o2 Před 10 měsíci +8

      @@HarryS05Chelsea, ManU, Leeds, Everton, and the list goes on, you can’t tell me that they think properly about their transfers

    • @nifemi_o
      @nifemi_o Před 10 měsíci +3

      Yeah this is just nonsense, you guys really think these billion pound clubs are basing their transfers on twitter? The fact is football is fickle, and success and failure can be a crapshoot.

    • @TheDarkKnightRacist
      @TheDarkKnightRacist Před 10 měsíci

      not every club mate, look at Newcastle, they did it the right way so far, no hush transfer, everything are plan well.

    • @jamestyler12JT
      @jamestyler12JT Před 10 měsíci

      What a stupid comment lol

  • @williambuckley5601
    @williambuckley5601 Před 9 měsíci

    The Lyon v West Ham quarter final match was in the Europa League, 21/22 season.

  • @MichaelEzechukwu
    @MichaelEzechukwu Před 9 měsíci

    All I want to is that J.J Okocha is in esteemed company behind the analyst. I'm Nigerian and i'm proud

  • @GreyDay2morrow
    @GreyDay2morrow Před 10 měsíci +2

    3:06 this was a Europa League game and from 2 seasons ago

  • @paulrowan7581
    @paulrowan7581 Před 10 měsíci +7

    Can't believe a video about bad transfers didn't include United!!!😅

    • @Flash4ML
      @Flash4ML Před 10 měsíci

      John trying to beat off the allegations that he's biased against them lol

  • @fernandovazquez9709
    @fernandovazquez9709 Před 10 měsíci +1

    that Bielsa tee goes is fire !

  • @jedhill3601
    @jedhill3601 Před 10 měsíci +2

    What John is calculating (0.53) is the probability that a player hits all of the markers. He is saying for you to be a good signing, all have to be true. If this is what it takes to just be considered ‘good’, then the model probably doesn’t work. This also assumes independence.

    • @jedhill3601
      @jedhill3601 Před 10 měsíci +1

      Also those values aren’t probabilities really, more like scores out of 10.

  • @og_praxis17
    @og_praxis17 Před 10 měsíci +9

    That Antonio quote, about his current teammate, is still absolutely wild to hear

    • @maciejbala477
      @maciejbala477 Před 10 měsíci +4

      it might seem a bit crude but I don't think he meant it in a bad way, just tried to say he's not the kind of player who fits a Moyes system

    • @cynshie7620
      @cynshie7620 Před 10 měsíci +1

      @@maciejbala477 it's just not a good thing to say though when you're both still playing for the club. maybe in five years time when both players have moved on but not now 😅

    • @no1raniuk854
      @no1raniuk854 Před 10 měsíci

      Big up Filthy Fellas though. Major waves.

  • @MarcelVolker
    @MarcelVolker Před 10 měsíci +1

    I also think many transfers are driven by a form of FOMO, especially in the Premier League the pressure to become better or at least not worse is huge. Many clubs rather take a punt on a player because the alternative is... having no player. You see this especially after a club has just sold one or a few of their major stars for mega££, that money is positively burning in their pockets and more often than not, is not well spent, because time is precious, and they must be seen to be doing something with that cash.

  • @ToastGhost
    @ToastGhost Před 10 měsíci +6

    Great video but that background music is horrific

    • @dexterking103
      @dexterking103 Před 10 měsíci +3

      Started losing my mind towards the end

  • @ashr7307
    @ashr7307 Před 10 měsíci +3

    Starting to think that Mr Mackenzie says names/words in a weird way on purpose just to wind us up 😂

    • @ardentspy
      @ardentspy Před 10 měsíci +2

      Noons is definitely a windup.

  • @monarch1993
    @monarch1993 Před 10 měsíci +1

    Such is life. You can spend days, months, even years to make sure something goes right and you would think someone would fit in perfectly for the job/romance etc, something or multiple things can go wrong by sheer chance and simply not work out.

  • @HayKay_
    @HayKay_ Před 10 měsíci +14

    Good job Tifo. Wish there is a video that analysed Kai Havertz or Pulisic's time at Chelsea.
    Havertz was touted as a generational talent (the next Ballack, Ozil etc.) while Pulisic was tagged the next Hazard and he even took the number 10 jersey. Both transfer didn't workout at Chelsea.

    • @rijocool1
      @rijocool1 Před 10 měsíci +2

      Kai hasn’t had a fixed place at Chelsea often played out of position , I’d have loved to see Kai stay though if anyone could have got a tune out of him it would be poch. Kai would have excelled in the delle Alli role . And as for pulisic , the guy could not get fit . Every time he gets a run of games he gets injured and it’s right back to square one . Playing as a wingback did not help also

    • @HayKay_
      @HayKay_ Před 10 měsíci +1

      @@rijocool1 guess that comes with being "versatile" because Havertz himself is still unsure of his best position. He has worked under 3 managers in his 3 seasons in England and Arteta will be his 4th manager for the 4th season, lol. let's see how that goes.

    • @rjaymurphy
      @rjaymurphy Před 10 měsíci +4

      Does anything work at Chelsea?

    • @HayKay_
      @HayKay_ Před 10 měsíci

      @@rjaymurphy @Chelsea it doesn't have to work to win. From the days of Abramovich, Chelsea just 🏆. Miracle in Munich (2012 UCL) is a good example. That season was hopeless, but Chelsea won the UCL. Same thing in 2021. Without trying to take anything away from Tuchel, he is a fantastic manager, I wish the board had not fired him. But it is still unbelievable how Chelsea hired a manager in January and won the UCL in May and then completed the trophy cabinet of Abramovich era with SC and CWC🏆🏆. Chelsea thrives in chaos, but the new owners tested the limit of that chaos and everything crashed. Anyways, I still ❤️ my Chelsea.

    • @TwinkleWinks2
      @TwinkleWinks2 Před 9 měsíci

      ​@@rjaymurphyyeah last season nothing works at chelsea

  • @gedionyekunoamlak4453
    @gedionyekunoamlak4453 Před 10 měsíci

    Loved it. Great vid guys

  • @MaheshMenon
    @MaheshMenon Před 10 měsíci +33

    Antony in grey is generous

  • @athos5761
    @athos5761 Před 10 měsíci

    I wonder what the stats are when considering multiple seasons. What's the likelihood of a player improving after having a lackluster initial season?

  • @TylerAven10
    @TylerAven10 Před 10 měsíci

    And Wesley Fofana just tore his ACL. The timing of this video is stunning

  • @yes2074
    @yes2074 Před 10 měsíci +5

    Nunes wasn’t having the best season under Lage and I think he played better under Lopetegui

    • @YungFusebox
      @YungFusebox Před 10 měsíci

      Is his name pronounced Noons?

    • @alexstackhouse8932
      @alexstackhouse8932 Před 10 měsíci

      Totally agree as a Wolves fan . Yes Lopetegui has played him wider in the second half of the season but from what I've seen he's been far more effective than when he played in his preferred central position under Lage.
      Still massively underwhelming season given the price tag / hype.

    • @chillaxboi2109
      @chillaxboi2109 Před 9 měsíci

      @@YungFusebox Noonis or Noones like the jones

  • @JR-sj1jz
    @JR-sj1jz Před 10 měsíci +2

    Very simple answer. Human beings aren't machines and can be very unpredictable. You can have all the best statistical models you want but that aspect of humanity will not change. And footballers are still human beings (for now).
    There are things like pressure, heart and desire that are hard to measure or quantify no matter how analysts might want to discount them. Some guys can't handle the pressure of being at a big club. Some guys once they get that big move and big pay cheque, lose their heads. First day at a big club after making the dream move they always wanted and player comes in overweight. How do you predict that Lukaku interview in his first season at Chelsea especially given everything he was saying when the transfer was made official. And then other factors like a club having a new owner who ends up firing his 2 managers during the season. Or a coach who is completely out his depth. Case in point Alan Pardew not rating Mascherano. It was ridiculous then and it still is ridiculous now.
    And then are other personal stuff too. Divorce, sickness, death in the family, failure to settle in a new culture or country etc. Just far too many unknown variables.

  • @mandolinabubecorellija5568
    @mandolinabubecorellija5568 Před 10 měsíci +3

    Without watching the video - because normally it would be below the radar 5-15M transfers that noone would even watch if they failed or not. In premier league english players are worth 3 or 5 times more than others. That is why phillips/maguire/sancho "fail". By pricing them you automatically compare them with kroos/van dijk/neymar (first 3 that came to mind). After that it is not easy to fill that shoes. Southgate and the FA are the catalyst of this process because they make them scholes/terry/gascoigne. The media doesnt help either

    • @sponish0
      @sponish0 Před 9 měsíci

      3-5 times is a bit of an exaggeration, if sancho wasn't english he would of been a lot higher than 20/30m still

    • @mandolinabubecorellija5568
      @mandolinabubecorellija5568 Před 9 měsíci

      @@sponish0 absolutely no way you would even heard of him if he wasnt english. For a dortmund stat-pumper? 30 million?

    • @sponish0
      @sponish0 Před 9 měsíci +1

      @@mandolinabubecorellija5568 he was literally one of dortmunds top 3 players before he even turned 21 wtf you on about. stat pumper? wtf does that even mean? getting loads of goals and assists is a bad thing? :D

    • @mandolinabubecorellija5568
      @mandolinabubecorellija5568 Před 9 měsíci

      @@sponish0 of course its not a bad thing, but it is open-style bundesliga dortmund, its not premiership. You dont pay 90 milion for someone that has 10 goals and 12 asists in bundesliga, you pay that for a premiership player. Lets agree to disagree and that beauty is in the eye of a beholder. I just dont like that transfer

  • @chinaman1
    @chinaman1 Před 10 měsíci +10

    Let's see how it goes for Rice and Mount this season.

    • @GuinessOriginal
      @GuinessOriginal Před 10 měsíci +1

      Rice will do well, Mount not so much.

    • @Azabaxe80
      @Azabaxe80 Před 10 měsíci +1

      Rice will do fine. He will be asked to do at Arsenal what he has done for West Ham and England. His superpowers, high interception rate, high probability clean tackles, superb tactical awareness and no history of injuries, fit Arsenal present needs to a T. He is also highly familiar or friends with several members of the squad, so he doesn't need to work to integrate into the team. He'll play, and he'll be fine.

    • @BubblesChika
      @BubblesChika Před 10 měsíci

      @@Azabaxe80 I'm not so sure he will

    • @Azabaxe80
      @Azabaxe80 Před 10 měsíci

      @@BubblesChika I'm curious to know, what are you seeing that I am not?

    • @BubblesChika
      @BubblesChika Před 10 měsíci

      @@Azabaxe80 Rice has never played in a team that dominates possession. It's quite concerning that West Ham dropped so much the season after Noble retired.
      I wasn't impressed with him in the final either. He looked a bit lost and couldn't stop the leveller. Better reading & scanning from Rice would've avoided that. Luckily, Lucas and Bowen stepped up & spared his brushes.
      Fiorentina's Amrabat seemed like the more sensible choice, especially considering Fiorentina play possession football

  • @HibariKyoya007
    @HibariKyoya007 Před 10 měsíci +2

    Feel bad for Matheus Nunes, Liverpool wanted him but they too slow.

  • @natangweiitula
    @natangweiitula Před 10 měsíci

    This is a very good video. More than good. Thumbs up. Thank You very much

    • @snakybcaky
      @snakybcaky Před 10 měsíci

      What was so good about it? I didn’t think it was good tbh

  • @mukwesamwanza1511
    @mukwesamwanza1511 Před 9 měsíci

    I personally think the odds of making it to the Premier league or any other big leagues are just slim.
    Most of the costly transfers are just a club beating a rival for a player they originally didnt intend to buy. For example man utd and Fred, Sanchez, Lukaku

  • @adamsutton3217
    @adamsutton3217 Před 10 měsíci

    Love the shirt! 😁

  • @benedictjephcote6815
    @benedictjephcote6815 Před 10 měsíci

    If the statistics were to take into account even more variables, the chances (if based upon similar rather 'finger in the air' assumptions) would likely get low pretty quickly.
    Statistics are kinda useful, but have a limit to their usefulness as we keep seeing in recent years.

  • @sandergaasbeek5978
    @sandergaasbeek5978 Před 10 měsíci

    Interesting video, weird sound design, especially around 2:40

  • @zlatanmorrison8182
    @zlatanmorrison8182 Před 10 měsíci +1

    Interesting that you just skipped right over the very first one on the list 'player not as good as thought' which is probably the primary cause of every one of the duff transfers on the initial list. Too many clubs paying waaaaaay over the odds for average joe's that may well be able to cut it in their home league or perhaps played better for the team they were bought from, then come to the Prem and get found out for being a bang average show pony (like Antony as one example).
    Also, zero incentive to play once purchased for massive amounts of money and on massive wages - thinking they have 'made it' in their eyes and simply do not bother anymore.

  • @SJW82
    @SJW82 Před 10 měsíci +1

    Rumour has it we are in for him, though I very much doubt city will sell him. I can imagine klopp would get the best out of him…though he’s on the wrong side of 30 for me 🤦‍♂️

  • @folabiolaore8156
    @folabiolaore8156 Před 10 měsíci

    I love the fact that Okocha has a place on your wall

  • @iandavies7991
    @iandavies7991 Před 10 měsíci +6

    John is an absolute nerd, but a great football analyst. Bringing him on board is the best thing Tifo have done imo

  • @WheresMyCurryAt
    @WheresMyCurryAt Před 10 měsíci +1

    "fan made podcast" give filthy it's flowers. We know u all watch it

  • @RustyAymes
    @RustyAymes Před 10 měsíci

    Love the Bielsa shirt

  • @TheEddie1401
    @TheEddie1401 Před 10 měsíci

    Something funny about how that probability worked out @2:00 is read out

  • @rolandcooke
    @rolandcooke Před 10 měsíci +2

    Players joining Man City famously take at least a year to settle in, does that not apply to every transfer to a lesser or greater extent?
    What's the general expectation / what's an appropriate period of time to judge whether a transfer has been successful or not?

    • @rijocool1
      @rijocool1 Před 10 měsíci

      I guess haaland is the only exception . But since the trend in city is getting to form in the second season , It’s real scary what haaland will do this season

    • @MarbleArch333
      @MarbleArch333 Před 9 měsíci

      ​@@rijocool1Akanji ?

    • @rijocool1
      @rijocool1 Před 9 měsíci

      @@MarbleArch333 oh yea but I guess akanji benefitted more from the change in tactics

  • @paulkonyefa1060
    @paulkonyefa1060 Před 10 měsíci +1

    YOU GUYS DIDN'T DROP THE SENSIBLE TRANSFER VIDEO FOR ARSENAL, INSTEAD YOU DID A VIDEO ON TIMBER AND BALOGUN, MUCH APPRECIATED I MUST SAY, BUT STILL KNOWING THE STRENGTH AND BALANCE OF OUR TEAM, AND A LINEUP THAT MAY BE USED IN THE NEXT SEASON BASED ON YOUR ANALYSIS AND NOT CONJECTURE IS A GREAT SOMETHING

    • @sigfigronath
      @sigfigronath Před 10 měsíci +1

      Tbh, we just need a saka backup and maybe another CM or forward. Our sqaud is actually very balanced.

    • @paulkonyefa1060
      @paulkonyefa1060 Před 9 měsíci

      @@sigfigronath I get you my gee, I'm just trying to let them know we gunners are serious😂😤
      As for a saka backup, hopefully we sell pepe allowing for us to get that person

  • @wilcoxtam810
    @wilcoxtam810 Před 10 měsíci +6

    They “fail” because we have a skewed understanding of what makes a transfer a success. It’s folly to judge a big money signing, especially if they’re foreign, on one season performance

  • @ryanlaird6447
    @ryanlaird6447 Před 9 měsíci

    Still think grealish and Phillips signings only happened to weaken mid table premier league clubs
    Celtic and rangers do it in Scotland

  • @OzyMandias13
    @OzyMandias13 Před 10 měsíci +1

    Sweet Bielsa shirt

  • @applenuts
    @applenuts Před 9 měsíci

    It depends how you define a failed transfer also. In this video it seems to presume that if you are not in the first 11 every week then you're a failed transfer. Also if you haven't performed well in your first season you're also a failed transfer. Neither of which i agree with. Was phillips brought in with the idea that he was going replace rodri? Of coarse not, he is just backup. If he is backup and dosen't get many minitues then how can he perform well? I don't see how u can conclude that he's flopped.

  • @liamburns8554
    @liamburns8554 Před 10 měsíci

    For some reason I never felt Philips was meant to succeed. Need to buy home grown players to warm the bench, Scott Carson being the prime example. And they knew he would have decent resale value

  • @asifrashid3212
    @asifrashid3212 Před 10 měsíci +1

    Never thought I would get a math lesson from TIFO

  • @euancoulter4345
    @euancoulter4345 Před 10 měsíci

    There needs to be like trials before 30-100 million is spent on a player who’s never truly proved themselves, every player should start on loan until they can prove their price tag.

  • @Laxton_Himself
    @Laxton_Himself Před 10 měsíci +5

    That Matheus Noon-z is a great player 😵‍💫

    • @GranmargYGO
      @GranmargYGO Před 10 měsíci

      you know that is how it's pronounced m8

  • @Joe-wj7ku
    @Joe-wj7ku Před 7 měsíci

    This is some nonsense probability going on here.
    1) The choice of 6 categories of failure with a 90% chance of success is completely arbitrary to achieve the 50% number. It's reverse engineered.
    2) each reason for failure is not independent, so the probabilities CANNOT simply be multiplied together.
    Neither the model nor the inputs can be trusted.

  • @albertbrammer9263
    @albertbrammer9263 Před 10 měsíci

    You do not classify a transfer as a failure after one season, especially if that player has arrived from outside the same league.

  • @InvadersMustDie1918
    @InvadersMustDie1918 Před 10 měsíci

    I'm very curious if Sandro Tonali will integrate at Newcastle, with language and environment. It's well known that just a few italians really succeed in EPL. They don't really like to play outside of Italy anyway. We see that Scamacca didn't make it in EPL, now let's see Tonali.

    • @maciejbala477
      @maciejbala477 Před 10 měsíci

      eh, I wouldn't discount Scamacca just yet. West Ham could still keep him, he's just unlikely to work if Moyes is still in a job

    • @BubblesChika
      @BubblesChika Před 10 měsíci

      I reckon he leaves back to Italy next summer. He already looks severely unhappy to be in England

    • @sigfigronath
      @sigfigronath Před 10 měsíci

      @@BubblesChika Yea I saw a few quotes saying he likes to play at Rome, but hes surelly not a bad player.

  • @kingarthur8646
    @kingarthur8646 Před 9 měsíci

    Don't we miss jack of all trade players like michael carrick??? Many players these days are one dimensional, but one team that have been the best at collecting multidimensional players it is man city, and with the best manager at hand, it is a winning combo. Many premier league managers don't have the flexibility to change tactics and develop players to a certain style because they have no experience of foreign leagues (since MAN UTD LAST PREMIERSHIP, all the premier league seasons have been won by foreigner coaches with lot of experience outside of the premier league). The premier league managers lack of diversity and experience and knowledge of European football is the problem for me.

  • @yinnkie
    @yinnkie Před 10 měsíci +1

    Err Anthony should be a bold red

  • @nats3606
    @nats3606 Před 10 měsíci +2

    Me waiting for Barcelona sensible transfers🙃🙃🙃🙃

  • @bender9222222222
    @bender9222222222 Před 9 měsíci

    I wonder how many players struggle in their first year under Pep's system. It feels like almost every player is labeled a bust when they arrive at the Etihad. HUGE exception would be Haaland 😂😂

  • @emin4736
    @emin4736 Před 10 měsíci +1

    Why there is no videos about Barcelona?

  • @Louback33
    @Louback33 Před 10 měsíci +1

    when can we call a transfer a success or failure? I think one season is a little knee-jerk

  • @jayuzumaki8186
    @jayuzumaki8186 Před 10 měsíci +2

    Respect filthy fellas mate.

  • @Jonifico
    @Jonifico Před 10 měsíci

    I haven't seen the video yet but I'm going to guess the ones that failed played in teams that didn't suit them, injuries, and the good ol' human factor. We'll see...

  • @famouse6217
    @famouse6217 Před 10 měsíci +2

    Phillips will come good, real quality player in there

    • @BubblesChika
      @BubblesChika Před 10 měsíci

      Lol, no he won't 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    • @famouse6217
      @famouse6217 Před 10 měsíci

      @@BubblesChika I see you replying to a few comments hating on Phillips, why?

    • @BubblesChika
      @BubblesChika Před 10 měsíci

      @@famouse6217 Because he's not good. Grealish made more premier league minutes last season alone than Phillips made in all competitions. He really isn't going to come good

    • @famouse6217
      @famouse6217 Před 10 měsíci

      @@BubblesChika you’ve got a crystal ball of football? You know naff mate shut up

  • @juniormynos9457
    @juniormynos9457 Před 10 měsíci

    I don't get excited for new signings anymore because how unpredictable they are

  • @Geitepielekupke
    @Geitepielekupke Před 10 měsíci

    Why the song in the background? Unnecescary

  • @arnabthreethreesixfivethre4841
    @arnabthreethreesixfivethre4841 Před 10 měsíci +1

    After watching this video i would request fans to not label new transfers as flops mindlessly

  • @ashleymason4471
    @ashleymason4471 Před 10 měsíci

    more mackerel content pls

  • @rijocool1
    @rijocool1 Před 10 měsíci

    And fofana is injured again 🤦🏽‍♂️🤦🏽‍♂️on the knees too ….

  • @gentleken7864
    @gentleken7864 Před 10 měsíci

    Yeah, 'Mancheser Siddy'

  • @zhrikanth
    @zhrikanth Před 10 měsíci

    Nunes like saying Sanches not at all Noons!!

  • @shaqtaku
    @shaqtaku Před 10 měsíci +1

    Pep is so ruthless lmao. Will sign a player for millions only to bench him

  • @aristeia71
    @aristeia71 Před 10 měsíci +1

    Chelsea had 4 managers

  • @baggly
    @baggly Před 10 měsíci

    Really want to eat some mackerel now for some reason...

  • @_lazaran
    @_lazaran Před 10 měsíci

    I dont know what are u saying, but Matheus Nunes never work out under Bruno Lage's team

  • @MrMikoMic
    @MrMikoMic Před 10 měsíci +1

    Regarding the Scamacca case we could question about the difference of level between Prem and Serie A

    • @ardentspy
      @ardentspy Před 10 měsíci

      Nah he's what you might call a "box player". Functions in a box about as wide as the goal area and five yards deep on the edge of the pen area. It's a total mystery why West Ham bought him when "lump it up for Michal to chase" is their plan.. I wanted Leeds to buy him. He would have kept us up.

  • @timtamothy51
    @timtamothy51 Před 10 měsíci

    Well Fofana is out with an ACL again now 😅

  • @dan_druff2470
    @dan_druff2470 Před 10 měsíci

    no way tifo have used the filthy fellas podcast as a source