Home Prices Are Rising Faster than YOU are being Told
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- čas přidán 5. 10. 2023
- The stats from the CSO and Daft and Myhome are hiding the true price inflation on housing in Dublin and Ireland.
This is not click batt; house prices in some parts of Dublin are skyrocketing, and the CSO average housing prices data are misleading the true price increases in Dublin and some parts of Ireland.
According to the CSO latest stats, The national Residential Property Price Index increased by 1.5% in the 12 months to July 2023.with prices in Dublin decreasing by 1.4% and prices outside Dublin up by 3.8%.
Daft latest report on asking prices Housing prices in the third quarter of 2023 were 1.1% higher than a year ago, The typical listed price nationwide in the third quarter of the year was €322,602, 3.7% higher than a year ago.
Prices in Dublin in the third quarter of the year were just 1.4% higher than a year ago, the lowest rate of inflation since prices started to rebound in late 2020.
Myhome reported that annual asking price inflation is running at 4.1% nationally - the second successive quarter of increases - with buyers paying a 3% premium over asking price in September.
Property prices in Dublin have risen by €7,000 during the quarter, according to the latest MyHome.ie Property Price Report.
The myhome report for Q3 2023, in association with Davy, shows that the median asking price for a property in the county is now €425,000. This means prices have risen by €5,000 compared with this time last year. Myhome report also suggests that asking price is up 2.2% later in the report. The report confuses its self and me.
So you have the CSO at a price increase of 1.5% but falling in Dublin, Daft 1.1% increase in asking prices. My home has a 2.2% increase and Dublin prices up by 7k in Dublin during Q3.
All very confusing and I am about to confuse things even more. Because I think values may have increased far more.
My name is Shane Fleming a chartered property expert with over 18 years of experience in real estate, a degree in property economics. The views in these videos are my own and are just entertainment, no formal advice has been provided.
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Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125k ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
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Been trying to buy a home in Dublin since 2021 and have been outbid more times than I can count. Despite reports that houses were selling for “up to 3%” over the asking price, every house I bid on went for 15-20% above the asking price and sometimes even higher than that. Houses on the same streets that were listed for 325k-350k in 2022 are now being listed for 375-400k only 12 months later. This is WAY higher than media and govt is reporting
It’s not the government. It’s daft and myhome basing it on data that is not comparing like with like.
Another thing to keep in mind, Shane.
Real estate moves very slowly. Even if there are some movements upwards, the insanity of the last 4 years has stopped completely.
And with the global economy in the toilet, Ireland in recession and spiking interestrates, this will eventually work its way through to the realestate market.
The era of free money has ended, even though there might still be some cash in the system, the party is over.
Every single realtor (West of Ireland) I talk to is saying the number of calls/offer/bids has slowed dramatically.
Which isn't reflecting in pricelevels yet, since the supply is still limited. But I can say, supply is picking up.
Eventually, what goes up, must come down. Perhaps not like the 2008 crisis, but a correction is overdue.
Like I said previously, the era of cheap money is over. No matter the talkingheads on TV, the price of money *interest-rates* CANNOT be zero.
And yet we had a decade of it, with disastrous results. Because inflation is intentional and not an accident. It's a taxation.
This is now a generational conflict, where let's say boomers (it's a horrible term, but still) hold all the real estate, wealth and power.
The generations after that are all being fleeced. There's been financial repression since 2009 and the currency has been devalued dramatically.
Never before in history has this happened. I think a big issue is ignorance and distraction. Getting upset about all the BS on your smartphone rather than seeing what
they're doing to you.
Best of luck to you, Shane.
why on earth was my first comment removed?
Not sure property in Ireland is actually overpriced! Usually median earnings as a measure I’d say they are close to what they should be which absolutely wasn’t the case back in ‘08.
Didn’t remove any comment
Currently looking at properties while my fiancé and I are getting ready to buy a house in Dublin.. The amount of money people are willing to pay to win the bidding war is crazy.
Could be still good value depending on what you value
Just watched. Agree and I find these "average index's " indeed misleading. Cheers 💪
Johny Ronan came back on bumpy road,Ireland in technical recession,.
You are absolutely right. All data shared through these portal is very very vague and useless. I am actively searching house in Dublin and there is not a single property on the market which is actually in turn key condition. Properties actually need a lot of work and the newer properties are priced very high and the new houses for sale usually are not in a good neighbourhood or the house architecture is not good. The bidding war is very very crazy. Can you make a video how to bid on a property to buy, we should start from asking price, below asking price or should we start offer with our budget cap for the property right away?
I have don’t a video on bidding in the past but also did one and never edited it together. It on a list
Property price register is the only true measure, actual sell prices!
The Register will miss the refurb costs, and some portfolio sales might be missed too
The average price is also biased downwards by *below market value sales. Eg Mam and Dad sell a house to their kid for 300k when it’s worth 800k. While there aren’t that many of these transactions, a small number of these outliers can dramatically skew the average price downwards.
@@samoreilly2673 those transactions get a * on them. Not sure how they impact average but if included will have negative impact
@@shaneflemingre fair point. I know they’re marked on the website, but I’m not sure how or if they are included in the sample for calculating those stats.
They might also collect the estimated open market value but would is also be biased slightly downward because there’s a clear incentive to minimise the gap and resulting CAT liability.
@@samoreilly2673 I don’t know but is a valid point
Data from the CSO showing planning applications are plummeting, some may view this as less supply and higher prices, on the other hand we are probably going into a recession. Looking back at the GFC period apllications were steadily heading down two years before the crash, and on the other hand how bad would that recession be, if credit was available, even though that was a bubble looking for a pin
It’s a lot to do with developer not buying sites at the moment as other costs are so high.
Buy and deep renovate. It happened close to me (Swords). €450k (official) selling price but at least 200k being invested. I'm sure its the same everywhere. Real property values are only revealed when new build or energy efficient home are sold.
So much cost in fixing up homes at the moment and so much is happening too
In the last month noticed a trend: there are nearly no people attending viewings, a couple of months back we needed to wait in a queue for all the viewing we were attending, however, the last five viewings we attended together with 1-3 other people even for the 1st viewings of the houses. We also noticed prices trading down for houses and many houses with no offers after couple of viewing (seems that some owners ask too much and buyers get scared by the price so they don’t even make an offer lower than the asking price). Have been house hunting for a while now in Dublin and have never seen that (within the past couple of years). All the houses were in okey condition, like the same type of houses where you would need to queue to view half a year ago and would then see offers of 50k higher than the asking price within 2 weeks. Interesting what’s next, I think the sellers still don’t understand that market has changed…
It really depends on the area. But there is generally a bit of a slow down at this time of the year. Some people think wait until next year
@@shaneflemingre yes, of course area is important! (we are only considering nice areas in Dublin with easy access to major office hubs). Re season: last year same time it was a lot more crowded on the viewing we had. We’ve recently viewed 4 houses, 3 of them used to be rented out and owners decided to sell - all want to sell asap and are ready to be flexible with prices (interesting category to see, a year ago was defo more rare - guess it has to do with the increased mortgage payments). One of the houses that we liked decreased asking price by 10% after 2 weeks and 3/4 viewings; we are waiting for them to drop lower, they have no offers close to asking price, it has been on the market for more than a month, really nice area, but with the current mortgage rates there is no point to agree to such high prices cause the mortgage payments would be even higher than rents. Another house that we didn’t like due to overall structure went sale agreed 10 k lower than the initial asking price. Great to see that sellers are becoming more flexible, but considering majority haven’t had mortgage renewals yet buyers market is yet to come
Great video.
A serious limitation of all these data and analyses is that they are samples and that’s rarely acknowledged in any of the analysis. Read the language in the reports. It’s stated as fact: “prices rose by x”.
What’s happening is we are taking a sample(transactions in a period), analysing it and making an inference about the population (all property values) based on that sample.
This, as you say, only works when the sample accurately represents the whole population, I.E. an unbiased random sample.
But as you correctly identified, the sample is neither random, nor unbiased. There are very clear trends in the types of properties being sold E.g probate sales and landlord sales which account for a higher proportion of transactions than they represent in the overall housing stock. Therefore the sample is biased.
In general, a better practice rather than stating sample averages as fact, they should be calculating a confidence interval E.g. based on the data we expect the rate to be between x% and y% with 95% confidence.
The reality is that governments fail to collect reliable data on these transactions. One of their many shameful derelictions of duty in this sector.
Thanks Sam. Think to much stock is put in these reports on averages that are just used by myhome and daft to get headlines
Yes
Thanks for the vote of reinsurance
Talk in the US that Airbnb's are struggling and may flood the market with inventory, reading something like 15-18,000 airbnb units here, is this a storm in a teacup
I mentioned the Airbnb over supply in the US nearly 2 years ago. Ireland is not the same. Major under supply of hotels in Ireland
Major undersupply of everything in Ireland... by design.@@shaneflemingre
If the banks keep lending, prices will probably go up, and if credit tightens prices come down, its all you need to know
True to a point. Credit is nearly 3 times more costly than 2 years ago. Huge amount of cash available at the moment
I am a private landlord, who is screwed by legislation and regulation. People like me will sell and leave the real estate industry and then people will only be living in suburbs or let from funds in the city, paying €3k a month rent for a 1 bed apartment soon.
€14k per year tax free on longterm rentals hopefully coming on Tuesday!
A lot hoping for it
Yea a lot voting with their feet and selling up. Renters are the ones that suffer
What are the chances they'll do it?
@@teslastream we will see Tuesday
In my apartment in 2 years increase 30 k!!+ bidding
Hopefully that is a good %
The house prices are rising faster than I can save. How can this keep on happening?
The amount of money is the market is the issue. And lack of stock
I can relate. I'm saving hard but inflation is killing me.
@@shaneflemingrealong with population growth. We haven't a chance as a generation.
@@Sean-nj5gh exactly. And of course, dishonest and corrupt politicians.
@@lighthousephoto7143 It won't last, because 30,000 homes are being built annually, the economy is slowing down, both domestically and globally. Much of the EU is in recession, and the US is heading for a recession too. On top of that, interest rates have risen from 0% to 5% in a short period of time.
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