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Is Ireland's Housing Market in a Bubble? Separating Facts from Fear
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- čas přidán 20. 05. 2024
- Prices rising by 7%, some agents saying prices are up as much as 15% Is it a bubble, and will it burst any time soon? There is much hype about the Irish housing bubble, but is it a bubble, or are the fears unfounded? Let's explore this together in this video. But before I do, Question time, do you think we are in a bubble and will it burst, let me know in the comments. A better question might be are house prices undervalued.
Moving on, "First, let's understand what a housing bubble actually is. A housing bubble occurs when the prices of homes rise rapidly to levels that are unsustainable, driven by high demand, speculation, and exuberant spending. Eventually, these inflated prices reach a peak, and when demand can no longer support the high prices, the bubble bursts, leading to a sharp decline in home values."
Bubbles are common enough, Tulipmania' as it is known today is generally viewed as being the first example of an economic, or financial bubble. When prices of tulip went out of control in the 1600. There more recent bubbles from tech, altcoins, and housing can also have bubbles.
History provides us with clear examples of housing bubbles. In the late 1980s, Japan experienced a massive property bubble, with real estate prices skyrocketing due to speculative buying and loose credit policies. When the bubble burst, it led to a prolonged economic stagnation known as the 'Lost Decade.'
In the early 2000s, the United States saw a housing bubble driven by subprime mortgage lending. This bubble burst in 2007-2008, triggering the global financial crisis.
Spain also faced a similar scenario in the mid-2000s, where rapid housing price increases were fueled by cheap credit and high demand. The burst of this bubble resulted in a severe economic downturn."
My name is Shane Fleming a chartered property expert with over 18 years of experience in real estate, a degree in property economics. The views in these videos are my own and are just entertainment.
Follow us at
/ flemingrealestate
Website:
www.propgen.ie
Ireland has high immigration, 14% job growth last year as opposed to 3% in the Eurozone overall, very restrictive planning (you can't build UP or OUT) and a young population. There is a huge restriction on supply - very few small builders (i.e. up to 20 houses/units) operating. The demand is real, not artificial as in the Celtic Tiger days. The Bubble will only appear if immigration slows significantly and there is less money in the economy e.g. depart of a major MNC.
It's always the immigrants fault yeah?
The problem with you Irish, as a highly skilled immigrant in Ttech, is that you fail to build houses to support increasing FDIs here. You attract so much investments because you're a tax haven, so all the money that is moving around Ireland are foreign money, domestic and local Irish people are poor in reality and just picking up the crumbs from foreign money and immigrants workers. Us immigrants you hate are the ones keeping the investments here, because without us, multinationals won't be able to operate.
Multinationals are investing and building base here, besides being ethically dubious tax haven, because you're in the EU, expecting highly skilled immigrants from both outside and in the EU to come here. The Irish alone is not skilled enough to keep these multinationals who is the life blood of Ireland's economy.
You Irish people only need to build the infrastructure so that us highly skilled people and multinationals can operate properly here, but you can't seem to do that.
At the end of the day, you can all blame immigrants al you want, but we all know the Irish are just too slow and incompetent to decades long problems without the help of foreign aid, investment, or immigration.
Ireland has always been a highly regulated market place. The one area with low regulations is the corporate sector which booming.
Immigration is mainly composed of bottle washers and asylum chancers, these types don't buy houses they live 10 to a room in slums. The bubble will burst very soon.
We have an ageing population actually but people are living longer and healthier. Immigration is needed when we have an aging population.
@@onezerooneo
Immigration is not needed. Ireland has a stable birth rate.
We are in a 'never-seen-type' of bubble. The housing demand far outstrips the supply and I don't see a burst on the horizon as buyers continue to outbid themselves in a bidding war. Houses are now selling between 7 - 20% above asking prices.
@@05burky it’s hard to call it a bubble when there is limited speculation
They are stuffing people into the country in unprecedented numbers there is a dire shortage of skills needed to build houses. I have heard of trades looking for €500 per day after tax. Think about that! The only things being built are hotels, hostels, build to rent to IPOA there is a dire shortage of supply of homes where people want to live without spending 3 hrs in a car. SF will end all subsidies and at the same time won’t build diddly squat.
That €500 per day is about right for a small business.
@@Art-is-craft Over taxation, as we have, will be met by super high demands for remuneration
@@PB111627
Cost if such a small business to include taxes, materials, tools, transport and material handling would eat into that €500 per day to leave about 30% for a wage.
Appreciate you doing the research leg-work for us!
I'm 30, single & looking to buy an apartment in Ashtown, a 3 bed run down one was 350k, just sold for 420k.
I dumped all my savings last year into BTC pre-halving - but now all my profits next September will be lost to the double digit house price growth ffs!!
Ha ha, fair play taking the risk. House prices don’t growing that fast but I get it
@@shaneflemingre Will follow up next year & give a case study of my experience. Love the work Shane!
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I agree Shane, I dont think Ireland is in a bubble. Having watched and invested in the New Zealand housing market for years I was surprised coming to Ireland to see the price of properties compared to average income and good rental yield. Mortgage lending rules for both PDH and BTL's are much more stringent than in NZ (which is already tough), as well as so few options for mortgage providers with banks recently leaving the Irish market. Tenancy laws are also so unfavourable that mum-and-dad investors are not drawn to property and planning regulations also make self builds difficult if you dont have land gifted to you/a tie to the local area meaning you are limited to buying new builds from bigger developers. These are all things that left unchecked could cause a bubble, but are not causing a problem in Ireland. As an interested observer (as opposed to educated economist) my feeling is that the impact of the 2008 crash has taken this long to really recover, and in some ways Irish house prices have been artificially low for the last 10-15 years. It is normal in a housing market for their to be a boom/bust type cycle every 7-10 years, this does not mean a bubble. It means a period of growth followed by a period of slowdown or slight decline before the cycle starts again. My feeling is that Ireland is following a standard property cycle.
Would totally agree. It would normal cycle if you flatten the curve. Lot of properties trading below their build cost.
American owes 36 trillion dollars when it pop's the world will feel it and its about to pop big time
I believe once rate cuts going to start happening, house prices will soar in double digits and it would be difficult to get the house due to getting either bid out or cash buyer priority. New builds going to be out of reach, with the help of FHS and HTB it might be possible if you get lucky. Thanks for sharing your insights Shane.
Rates started being cut this week by Irish banks. Think people will be push to buying way out of town
Lots of good supply coming to the market though. And that has been the case since 2022, it’s just a long backlog there.
I also don’t think rates have had as substantial a difference here as elsewhere. We saw that Irish bank rates and E.U. ones converged during the rate hike period.
Central Bank 3.5 rules and Deposits have been the problem for a lot of FTBs as rents have been out of control. The FTB subsidy, relaxation of borrowing rules and strong nature of the economy though has meant a consistent supply into the Irish market.
Possibly more of an impact for Movers but that should open up supply too that is being poorly utilised.
Ireland`s rising house prices are not about supply and demand but about government policy. House prices stoped falling in 2012 but not because the market had bottomed out but because the government inserted a false floor beneath property prices by insuring a small tranche of houses (belonging to the banks they had just bailed out ) against negative equity of up to 20% below their market value at that time. This caused buyers to enter the market before it bottomed out naturally and so the true market value of Irish houses is about 25% below the lowest point they fell to in 2011/12. Government policy since then has all been about causing house price inflation. They borrowed 200 billion euro and directed this inflation into house prices via public sector pay and other targeted stimulus. The cement levy was designed to cause inflation in new houses. They did not have to raise the compensation that way but they choose to because they want house price inflation. They ensure shortages in the housing supply by making sure they don`t build too many, again this is to keep house prices rising in perpetuity. Laws and the courts were used to prevent properties in default being foreclosed upon, in order to keep them off the market so prices would stay high. Hence the unusual situation in this country whereby people who have been in total default for over a decade are still living in the houses they are defaulting on. When the ECB raised interest rates, the government eased lending standards in order to sucker in new buyers to pay these sky high prices with easier credit, thereby keeping house prices rising. But keeping house prices rising in perpetuity is a difficult thing to do when the market ultimately seeks out true price discovery. So what could make this happen? Well, if the ECB cuts interest rates, inflation in the Eurozone is likely to jump sharply as traders dump the euro and this will see interest rates rise again, perhaps higher than before or else, interest rates won`t rise but consumer prices will rise which will mean people will have less to spend on houses unless the banks want to increase credit to their customers which increases risk. Essentially, this will be inflation leaking from house prices into other areas like consumer debt and consumer prices. Also, a Trump victory in the US may see US multinationals pull out of Ireland and return to the US. If the US FED, lowers interest rates, the US dollar will weaken which is not good for US multinationals here. This is to say nothing of the global dedollarization trend. Also, the stock markets are sky high and if they fall due to sticky inflation which keeps interest rates high, then lots of businesses will fail and lots of debts will be defaulted on and the derivatives markets may become a topic at that point. Other risks are of a geopolitical nature. Unemployment will of course rise should these things happen. And, if they do happen, people will default. If they default, house prices will begin to fall. If they begin to fall, negative equity will become an issue and if that happens, more people will default and prices will fall further and so on. Should these things gather momentum, our government will find itself overwhelmed to the point that it can no longer prevent price discovery in the housing market. That is when we will find out how much houses in Ireland are really worth.
well said, the interest rates will go much higher.. starting next year due to high governments spending and rejection of the Euro zone bond market
Only problem is knowing when the bubble will burst.
I think it was the IMF who said, prior to 2008, that all rapidly rising house price sprees ALWAYS end in a crash (the bursting of the bubble). Soft landings are rare indeed.
If prices arent realistic then it is a bubble and Irish housing market is full of speculations so of course its in a bubble, question is how long will speculators manage to pust hat bubble for. With election around the corner hopefully not for long. Yes investors are buying but families not that much. Loads of people are leaving but nobody is talking about that and with new people coming in its not that much visible. But fact is that Irealnd is turning into a train station as far as I can see it. Hopefully Im wrong. Thanks for the video.
Thanks for the feedback. I just don’t see the speculation. People are way more cautious. Don’t see anyone in my network buying out of speculation
I hear this a lot about prices not being realistic.Yet prices continue to rise and borrowing rules haven't changed. That should tell you something.
@rffffggg well we see posts on EA sites "sold over the asking price" all the time. How do sellers get asking price? By valuation that is done by EA before selling. If it's sold for a higher price, then that's an unrealistic price. If we add to that build quality, life quality, public transport connectivity, congestion, and crime, prices aren't realistic. What is speculating? Trying to change value. So we have loads of specualtions in real estate market not just in Ireland. Across the world. If it's happening everywhere, does it make it right? Not. Speculations are not ok. They're maybe pushing up the economy, but they're killing society.
@@escootIreland EA price it for what they might expect but at the end of the day the house is worth whatever anyone is willing to pay for it. You may not agree but that does mean the market is overpriced. I don't think repossessions are at all time highs or banks are over lending so if people can afford it.
it's not a bubble like 07/08
@@rffffgggborrowing rules did change from 3.5x to 4x income in Jan 2024, I felt this first hand it had a big impact
Yes & yes. Matter of time.
Bog standard houses in ritzy areas sell for a lot when you consider renovations costs. Look at Clontarf or Clonskeagh, you would want to be mad to pay the money they are looking for for ugly semi D. Although some of the renovations are innovative make overs :)
Most of the people who buy these properties recycle their existing property into the new purchase. The property market is a chain that's why downturns are systemic like a domino effect
@@mrmc2465 OK, so the value is there as part of decades long projects. The cost of renovation would be another really interesting video.
20 times your annual salary for a house and you don't call it overvalued...
I am sorry but you are wrong
Good analysis Shane.
It's not a bubble. Banking is tightly regulated now, unlike 2000s. The supply is limited artificially and demand is driven by real needs, not speculative.
Relying on the private enterprise to build social housing is beyond naive. But that is what the govt seems to be doing. Every county needs to build 2 or 3 new towns, import the labor and materials as needed. There is no shortage. The only shortage is when builders can't//won't pay enough for the skills/labor needed. Pay enough, you'll get the workers. Materials are not in short supply any more.
The problem is basically political. The 70% of the pop who own their own home are terrified of a) losing value or b) being in a negative equity situation, as happened to 10's of thousands last time. Prior to the GFC of 2008 to 2012, IRL had never experienced a property downturn. It was a new experience, and as you know the scars from that lesson linger.
Solution:
1) enable county councils to access the capital markets and issue bonds. Impose property taxes to pay the interest.
2) Build houses for low income ppl, disabled, etc.
3) Rent to ppl who can demonstrate a need , with their tax returns. Ensures compliance with the tax system. Use "rent to own" to enable renters build equity.
4) National govt to build roads and rail. Local govt to build water, sewer, power lines, internet. Use bonds to pay for capital expenditures
5) Planning system to be changed. Individual objectors have to be limited. Objections must be technical, tangible and measurable. A deposit of E50,000 required for each objection. A review by engineers/civil servants within 1 month.. If you lose, you lose your deposit.
6) Incentives must be provided for high rise residential buildings. If the floors don't rise, rents won't fall. There will be enough qualitative differences between these new builds/new estates/high rises and established housing stock to protect the property values of the 70%
As an investor myself, I can't get the returns i need in IRL. Much easier in other markets. But, I'm not seeking a place to live. The is a manifest difference between housing as an asset class and a social need.
Keep up the good insights.
Historically there has been numerous property crashes in Ireland (see Ronan Lyons report). Banks are highly regulated, that's subjective, based on pre GFC, yes, based on historically lending limits, no way. The old trope of blaming the objectors for all our problems, this reminds me of when a business person blames everyone for the lack of sales when their prices are simply too high. The only houses being build in my local area are council houses, there's a website shows the upcoming contracts (typically 300k/dwelling unit from what I've noticed), there is a steady stream of contract and the builders are there to build them. How is supply artificially manipulated?, if you mean the high taxation and gov quango fees, esb connection, council levies, water connection fees, BER certs, SUDs, increased building regs, insulation, heat pumps vs conventional heating, engineer/architect fees, all the construction branches are also under regulatory bodies that also demand a fee, like RECI, safe pass, NASI, engineer Ireland, RIAI to name but a very few. There are too many greasy hands in the construction pot, and incomes are out of sync. The cost of construction never fell after the GFC, it was the case that construction couldn't compete with the stock
All these people getting into crazy high bidding wars, over inflating houses that arnt worth anywhere near what they are buying them for out of sheer desperation. Fighting for scraps. So that begs the question, if youre paying way over the odds for a house thats not worth it, are all these people now in negative equity? Not to mention they are all mortgaged and in debt for 30 years up to the hilt! I suspect a lot of people will not be able to sustain paying huge mortgages and will start to default as wages are not growing to meet those kind of expenditures. Im 39, solo buyer and waiting it out til after the general election. Hopefully new government with new policies will help with supply.
Agreed some people are bidding to much. But the supply issue is not going away. New government won’t fix that will just result in less built. 50% of homes don’t have mortgages. There will be no rush to sell.
The alternatives for those people is to leave Ireland.
Spot on analysis Shane. 👍
Seems to me Shane that while there are many causes, the fact that there are wealthy individuals before Covid who saw assets soar in value during 2020-2022 has caused a lot of the cash floating around at the moment. Also, people like me in their mid 2020s have spent 4/5 years working full time, not able to buy houses, not willing to rent due to price and therefore saving at home. I have friends on 60-80k per annum who have savings of 75k plus just laying around. This is another factor pushing prices north.
Mentioned it many times the amount of cash on deposit is crazy at the moment
@@shaneflemingre decreasing from a high in Jan 2022
What about raising of the BRICS and dedolarization?
My apartment is still valued less than when I bought it in 2006. Thats 18 years and still hasn't fully reached that level again.
I dont know where your property is but you are in the mnoroty.Prices are higher than ever beyond 2008 which was a bubble.
Average house price reached 349k in 2007. Today it's about 330k. Also apartments haven't rebounded as much as houses.
Agreed!
Hope you are well Austin
yes it will burst
Nice clear points thanks
If and when a recession arrives, unemployment will rise and the stock market will fall, which should have the knock-on effect of falling property prices. The wealth effect will go into reverse. I think at that point more supply will come on the market as there are lots of people holding onto to properties that are reluctant to sell due to continued price appreciation (inherited properties being rented out, baby boomers considering downsizing etc.) but if the market reverses they will be the first to try to sell to maximise their profit. Could the combination of an initial fall in prices with an increasing supply of properties on the market pop the bubble?
Well the price increase between 2021-2024 was based on interest rates decrease to almost zero due to bonds price increase due to global pandemic thing (global stop - fear of businesses default).. the Euro zone and Ireland debt increased during that time significantly driving the bonds yield higher hence higher interest rates.. the debt is out of control now that will drive interest rates much higher in the next 2-10 years.. now because of recession the interest rates will go a little lower (1-2%) but later this year or next year will go higher and stay higher (5-15%)
Thanks for making this and other videos on this subject
The bubble will burst again and people will be left in shit
Thanks for another good video.
If you consider a house as an investment, your video is accurate. However, if you view a house as a basic need for people, and think through society needs, then prices are too high. In theory economy as we have is created to serve society and people...
From a macroeconomic point of view, an increase in money supply does not necessarily reduce poverty because there are multiple factors at play. Poverty and inequality can rise in society despite an increase in money supply.
During Covid, when many governments created money, all inequalities created in financial and taxation systems funnelled money to the top of the wealth ladder...
Currently, 50% are cash buyers, but if the system were healthier and we built enough houses on an annual basis, this percentage would differ. This percentage is also the result of multiple government policies and external factors.
But the truth is that: the general population can't afford to buy, the general population can't really afford to rent, we have one of the highest rates of homelessness in the EU (the UK is the worst on the continent), and we have over 250,000 units missing in the market. The general population can't afford it. If you take the most extremely normative example: Two people working average level government positions, like a Garda or Office worker and a teacher... they can't afford to rent, save, buy, and have kids... and theoretically, they are already in a higher earning bracket if you exclude corporation salaries.... We can't have society where only way to buy house is to become mangers, director, politician or school principle...
I totally agree it’s very hard for the population to get a house and have a family. Housing and child care is nuts.
I don’t think the capitalist system has caused it I think the markets have been to overly regulated and it has lead to making it worse to for the general population
One additional indicator that supports the theory that Irish housing is undervalued is the current rental yields.
That is true on the yields but when you build in tax not that great. But if you have a good tax structure yields are strong. Also have to consider build costs. Many properties are trading below their replacement value
@@shaneflemingre Indeed so. We have a home in the country, a 5 bed detached on a half acre of land and its replacement cost from our home insurance/surveyors is estimated at 600k. If we were to sell it, we would only achieve around 425k.
When the bubble bursts, will we see a return to normal affordable rent levels?
No. There is no housing bubble. There is an overheated market.
@@Art-is-craft do you think we'll see a cool down of land prices? I'd rather just build a shack in a field at this point.
@@bhante1345
Land prices in urban areas are high because of zoning and lack of development. Planning alone accounts for 50% of development costs.
@@Art-is-craft what do you think regarding rural plots?
It will depend on the employment market
Yes, the market is not in a bubble, but when the market price outstrips the fundamental price, and people only buy because they believe the price will continue to increase, it can create bubbles. We are likely getting there, especially if interest rates go up.
The fundamental price is challenging to calculate precisely, but the total housing cost should be at most arround 30% of income. If wages are about 65k and houses are about 300k, with mortgage rates of 5%, then housing should be (65*0.3/0.07(mortgage, taxes,mantance)) 278k. This is what you get, so the price is not far off.
This indicates the market is not in a bubble yet, but there is clearly some upward pressure(immigration).
People are buying because they have no other choice. There are no rentals either so it is the street or a wealth destroying house.
Im in australia ,left my house idle , but no decided im not going home
Is it a good time to sell
It is a bubble and it will become obvious in the next 1 years to two years. Once it starts early adopters will try to sell only fueling it more. The big reason is demographics....the older generations who own most of the properties are beginning to die off and this trend will increase over the next few years. The tech industry is about to suffer big time with AI impacts on employment in that sector and immigration will slow down significantly but even if it didn't the supply will increase. Dublin will be the biggest bubble as people will increasingly be able to live and work where they want.
Is it a Bubble? Yes. It's a global bubble.
The last housing bubble was because of bad banking which gave out 100% mortgages to anyone who wanted them but this time it’s not so easy to get a mortgage and the supply is not there which dictates the price , it could be a rental bubble !
This time most people own their house outright.
Would say the rent crisis is due to rent caps and lack of supply
No it is not a bubble. .
@@shaneflemingredo most people really own their property outright? How could you know that? It seems unlikely prices could rise as they have been with just cash buyers
@@mrmc2465@mrmc2465 More than 1 million homes are held without a mortgage; think about the age group that owns most of the homes; most are retired or near retired and have paid off their mortgage.
Imo we are in a property bubble. Supply is low but so is demand, yes desire is high, that's maybe always there. The problem is the ratio of income to price. I think incomes will stagnate from here, the economy is weakening dramatically, but theres a time lag with recent labour hoarding etc to the layoff stage. In my area the only houses builds since the GFC is social housing and a few one off houses and that's only in the last few years. So the market in this area is not confident to build private houses simply is not there, which is very telling of the true economy. Inventory in Dublin City and Galway City have risen somewhat in the last month or so, I think it will continue to rise as the economy weakens. Is it a bubble of easy money and speculation, yes but not like the early 2000s, prices were dropping in the second half of 2019, the credit part came from pandemic business/wage subsidy payments, hearing evidence of this in the UK, I've no doubt it was abused here also, this sudden demand combined with working from home and fomo from joe public,
Demand is high. Record mortgage approved. Bidding wars happened. Sales are being agreed in days in some cases
@@shaneflemingre can you forward the source for this, mortgage activity fell in 2023
Ireland for the last decade needed 60000 new homes a year but was only producing 30000. Ireland now needs 100000 new homes a year. Does anybody believe they will solve this?
Report out this week from government that we need 250000 homes but many in the industry think it closer to 700k
@@shaneflemingre
It probably is closer to 70000 if you project out over the next two decades on today’s population but as the plan to add millions of new people that number is probably too low.
Bubbles can go on longer than you think. The problem is knowing when they are going to pop
Markets go up, markets go down
Fact and fact.
Except the Irish housing market, which goes to infinity and beyond😂
US stock indices sharp decline (currently held up by a hand full of stocks), job losses, bank credit reduction, far less demand, forced selling.
POP!
Its a bubble, after the elections it will be interesting.
If fall after election it’s due to lower confidence in the economy not a bubble bursting
Thanks for making and posting this video. There will be a slowdown in economic growth due to the lack of housing supply - businesses are already saying Dublin is becoming unattractive to prospective employees from abroad. Attention by Govt to the problem is being diverted by its failure to tackle illegal immigration - most people have no problem with migrants with some sort of skill set, even if - on "their initial entry" - their papers "may not be in order" - however, "anecdotally", significant numbers of "new arrivals" haven't any real skills set. Conclusion - serious political instability is likely to arise from the foregoing failure - that won't help - people will end up sitting in one million euro houses surrounded by a faltering economy outside - only the "loose change" of the likes of Chinese investors will shore up prices around Dalkey, Blackrock etc. !!!
I remember being in NYC and chatting to a company about the housing issue in Dublin and would it put them off opening a office there. They said the housing crisis is happening in every city so Dublin is no different.
No one who deliberately destroys or loses their passport should be allowed reside in Ireland. Most people believe that as per polls and you are severely misinformed to say otherwise.
A lot of people are willing to buy even at these prices. There are no reasons for the bubble to burst yet.
Lots of people looking. 500,000 adults living at home
Hope this election changes things out. People need an average pay of 80k to afford a home in the countryside, vast amount of people's income have not risen to sustain that and the cost of homes are fast growing compared to rise in sarley. One of highest high eraning individuals are in tech and tech sector has stopped hiring. yet price of homes are rising. Thats how high crazy things are and is not sustainable. Policies have to change, if politicians have no incentive in doing that, they wont change anything. Hosing policy has to change, and stop building caps. Housing in Ireland is not undervalued, for real estate agents its undervalued, because they are the greedy ones.
Are you from India?
@@jefitz why does that matter, where I am from?
@@arshadameen9523 oh yeah it doesn't matter just a guess given your knowledge of the tech industry and housing here. Was wondering how does competitiveness compare to back home?
The financial sector has been taking up office space so I am assuming they have been hiring
@@jefitz tech industry is not doing great, year on year there are layoffs and gone are the time of mass hiring. Most of the big tech as far as I know is tightening human capital. So the only reason for the increase in house prices in Ireland is the availability of enough units to buy. As per the leaked documents, Ireland needs 265k homes to match the demand. But that's not happening in any near future, becuse of the policies here.
Inflation is down
Down on growth rate but still going up.
Trees dont grow to the sky
No, irish homes are not under valued they are over valued obviously
😂
The bubble will burst again. This country will fall
There will be a slow down at some point but can’t see it burst