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Should YOU buy NOW or WAIT - Housing Crisis
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- čas přidán 29. 10. 2023
- Should you buy a home or property now or wait. Is a property crash coming in 2024, or has it started in 2023?
How is commercial property performing against residential property? Should you buy commercial property or residential?
The homing market is being impacted by interest rates, record mortgage approvals, rental caps, landlord selling, construction prices and a host more.
Do you think prices of housing will rise of fall next year.
My name is Shane Fleming a chartered property expert with over 18 years of experience in real estate, a degree in property economics. The views in these videos are my own and are just entertainment.
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Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125k ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.
Focus on these two primary goals. First, protect yourself by being aware of when to sell stocks to minimise losses and optimise gains. Second, position yourself to gain from shifts in the market. I suggest seeking guidance from a coach or other expert.
Asking a consultant or investment coach for advice or help is the best line of action if you are not knowledgeable about the market. Although this may sound cliched or apparent, talking with a consultant has helped me remain afloat in the market and increase my portfolio to about 65% since January. That, in my opinion, is now the most successful strategy for breaking into the market.
That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advisor, my portfolio has been stagnant.... Who’s the person guiding you?
““Jenny Pamogas Canaya ” is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's been able to gain some reputation and online recognition with over two decades in service, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic info...........
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Looking at prices adjusted for inflation is a very important point. Its hard to get my head around that sometimes. I'd love to see an inflation adjusted property price chart.
Some of the larger commercial agents put out data. Think BNP have a chart
Thank you for discussing the real estate situation. It's true that the industry has led to inflated home prices, making it difficult for many families to afford homes. This issue has been exacerbated by the practices of insurance companies, which can have negative effects as well. Some insurance companies may contribute to rising home prices by providing coverage that encourages risky lending and speculation. Additionally, certain insurance policies can be expensive, making it even more challenging for families to secure affordable housing. It's important for individuals to consider diversifying their income streams, independent of government reliance, as a wise approach in the current situation.
Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in Gold, silver and digital currencies ETH, XRP..).
What if you don't know how to trade any of these? I mean, see your point some people have the money and are willing to invest, the question is where to.
@@GreggVElrod To make well-informed investment decisions, it is important to have access to current information.
Think 3 bed houses will hold its value, but apartments will fall in price as nothing is been built but apartments, especially in Dublin
A lot of the apartment being built are built to rent so not available to the public market.
I was so convinced of a property crash in 2023 i refuced my bid by 30 k on a property in jan 23 and i ended up buying it, property prices increased in 2023 , maybec24 is the year but demand remains strong in ireland ,
Can’t see a crash this year unless world wide collapse
I could be wrong, but I'm going to stick to my thesis that prices will fall back to 2019 levels. When the ERSI are telling you a recession is coming its bad news, I'm seeing it at work, its slowing alot now, the pend up covid surge is finished, suppliers, hauliers, construction, retail its everywhere now. Companies are overstaffed now. Even seeing Glenveagh Homes sales adds appearing on youtude now. Supply and demand is a flawed concept, supply and desire is imo more apt. The bloodbath in retail hasn't started imo. What will prevent a GFC style crash is availability of credit and banks going insolvent. Again imo is won't prevent a sizeable correction. When you get this surge of rapid inflation its only a matter of time before the economy breaks
It's the increase in the cost of borrowing that will be the prime factor. It boils down to maths. Wages aren't rising to keep up with the ever increasing cost of property and borrowing, something has to give.
Inflation is coming under control and the amount of property being built is back to Celtic Tiger levels. Therefore, I'm keeping my powder dry, concentrating on improving myself and income.
@@SK-yb7bx I think we were building 80K housing units per annum at the height of the ponzi scheme, now maybe 20-30k. Wages aren't keeping up, its also all the other inflated living expenses, its a doom loop, plus unemployment will rise, which is cyclical in nature (business cycle). The typical recession scenario is inflation will come down in a recession and interest rates will follow to stimulate the next cycle. The risk this time is stagflation, I would say Ireland is now in a stagflation economy, which isn't unusual as an economy transitions from inflation to recession, the question is will it persist and will the ECB keep rates high enough and long enough to snuff out inflation
All valid points. The inflation factor is down to supply chain and printing billions. Real assets like properties may go up in value as there is so much cash in the market.
@@shaneflemingre It's mainly down to energy prices spiking after Putin deciding to invade Ukraine and then OPEC reduced oil output, keeping energy prices high. Energy prices dictate the price of everything. Energy is needed for everything, the planet is still run on oil, and to a lesser extend gas.
@@SK-yb7bx Just to point out, it was the EU, i.e. ourselves who sanctioned Russia and decided not to buy the gas from Russia, hence prices went up. Not saying its right or wrong, but Russia was still willing to sell, we just werent willing to buy, and the cost increase is the price we pay for it.
In terms of residential..
Has wage price inflation kept up with the payment inflation ( higher price + higher rates) ?
Is demand so strong that even IF it falls it still vastly outstrips the supply ?
How would you quantify the number of buyers:sellers ?
In some markets rates are not a huge factor as there is so much cash. And people are better holding assets than cash.
On the demand side. Some of the portals and valuation tools provide demand index. Stock levels to demand, there is a lot of demand there.
Another thing to consider is the CBI additon of a leverage limit on Commerical Real Estate Funds in Ireland to 60% LTV, alot of these are running at 1000% leverage and breaching leverage limits already due to revaluation. If the CBI added residential to this it..
Would of thought a lot of commercial properties are held on low leverage, maybe 70%. Not aware of many landlord having huge exposure
@@shaneflemingre within fund structures the leverage in Irish funds are absolutely enormous. It would not be uncommon for leverage to be at 5000%+. There was confusion over wether it was commercial and residential initially. Have a look at macroprudential cbi paper on real estate leverage
Really interesting video, Shane, thanks a million! I’m a first time buyer and have found your videos super helpful. I loved the quote at the start of the video - maybe you could have a weekly quote on the wall as part of the office setup?
Thanks for the info shane, great insights, i m thinking similarly to buy a new build house 3 bed in Citywest dublin, 8 months ago it was very tough to get houses, it used to go away within minutes. But now actually getting calls. Interest rate is big concern whether there will be more hikes?
Yea some area are more impacted by rates. Some area are still seeing bidding wars.
@@shaneflemingre do u think ECB is done hiking? and will they consider rate cutting from 2025?
Keep up the interesting vids shane. What is your opinion on renovations, would you think you get your money back which invested in renovating if were to sell ? At a later time
Thanks for feedback Dean, on renovations, I was involved with a SCSi project where they reviewed 20 renovations around the country. Only 6 were feasible. Most made a loss. The 6 that were feasible were all owned by someone that was involved in property as a profession.
Shane, could you speak more in property management companies in Ireland? Why do they charge so much from the owner but hardly show any work? Houses look bad and they don't take care of them? Also, their margins are very big if we compare them with traditional pm companies.
Compared to other countries service charge in ireland is cheap. I wouldn’t start a PM business a lot go out of business due to low payment levels and cash flow.
I often think they go with the lowest quote and that results in hardly any work
Well don't forget states (in particular USA) has interest in maintaining inflation for a pretty long time in order to reduce their depdts
It seems like it was planned to reduce the debt
Number of planning applications down noticeably. Even for One off houses
Likely because build costs have gone up so much.
Ye, same thing happened prior to the GFC in Ireland, planning applications plummeted in 2005 and thereafter.
Nice video Shane, Ive had a house in D8 on the market now for 4 months, very annoying to see so much hesitation out there, im not selling for less than i know the house is worth
Send on the house and will let you know what I think.
I know people getting into bidding wars at the moment in D8
Its called the top of the market
Hi Shane, really enjoyed listening and getting your insight/ opinion on the current state of the Irish housing market. High taxes and increased regulation are pushing the majority of landlords out of the market sadly! Thanks again and I look forward to seeing the office back space in your future videos!
Thanks Kevin. Hope you are well. The office space may take time
Can you do a video on residential property price predictions for 2024 please? I can see a 5-7% increase as interest rates fall. Thanks
Hey Aidan. Been a few months since my last video. But plan a few in the weeks to come. First one will be residential vs commercial and will include some predictions
@@shaneflemingre Thanks Shane. Looking forward to watching those
So is it a good time to buy a house you plan to live in for 3-5 years
It depends on what your other options are. Factor in rent, interest rates, and you will be older, will that impact the term of your mortgage
My real estate market is starting to see a massive amount of price decreases. Not enough still because homes increased
By 60% in a month in 2020 and never went down, but it’s progress.
What market is that Derek. 60% up lift mad.
Lexington, KY. They spiked in 2020 and haven't gone down since. We are only now starting to see SOME price corrections but it's not enough.
I have to agree. I've been learning charting for the last few years Shane, and picked up some IRES in the last few weeks. Clear bottoming patterns going on, people are panic selling for sure. Also, ECB etc are lying, I don't believe the higher for longer nonsense. I expect rate cuts within 6 months,. Hihgly probable in the charts. Explains why DXY is flat(ish) but precious metals running. More asseet price inflation coming. Have you listened to Raoul Pal's "Everything Code" thesis Shane?
Hey Will. With all the cash printed asset inflation has to happen. I see the CEO of IRES is stepping down might help share price
@shaneflemingre yea agree. I read somewhere that they took a loss onto the balance sheet as a result of interest rate increases. That seemed very bearish so that's when I bought. So far it was the low.
Hi Shane - is possible to buy or lease a small retail unit (as you siad market is low currenty) and apply for change of use to make into rental accommodation?
It is possible but you face 2 main issues. Bank won’t lend if has no planning and the unit could be part of a management company and they may need to give consent.
@@shaneflemingre ok can change of use be difficult to obtain?
@@padraigreilly5559 it generally doable but other factors like building regs, fire regs will trip you up as you may not have enough windows or exit doors
Hi thanks information
Hope it was helpful
Wait for ten years and come and rent its safer
The WSJ saying that it is the right time to buy bonds... it should be very pretty clear where the euro-dollar is heading to and where to invest... just saying
Where would you invest
@@shaneflemingre i invested, and i am still doing it, on precious metals. Other options right now, for someone who can have much more free time than me, are natgas and petroleum, and some raw materials, no lithium, but copper as an example.
A low-interest rate environment is gonna for the next 3-4 years, so i am not sure how property value can stay higher unless bowering cost will not come down. The average rent in Dublin is 2063 euros and the average salary in Dublin is 40000 euros per annum, after tax per month 2742 euros. I don't know about property but talent will not stay in Dublin for sure..
When you factor in the amount of cash on deposit, the salary range of people/couples at home buying age. In a lot of cases it is far higher than €40k.
Where will people go if jobs are based in Dublin
Mr Fleming do you know that shares of main banks of Ireland in last 4 months lost 12-40 per cent of price and any single media in 4 month time didn't tell a single word about it ?
There has been lots of articles about it
@@shaneflemingre No.When PTSB shares was down 25 per cent in total media was telling only about 7 and only in single article.The government knew about problems comming that why they sold them stakes.This show that Ireland on the way of something.Government avoid speak about problems started in banking sector.Looks like Johny Ronan on bumpy road again ? I told you that before when he was selling his assets in Paris you said its all right.
Mr Fleming by the start of the year my forecast for Ireland and ECB rate was
ECB rate 4.2 Click
Unemployment 8 per cent,from june 2023 to today is already 4.8
Property prices 20 per cent down ( commercial will be there ) private possibly I was too optimistic
We getting there Mr Fleming !
Investors keeping money for invest to property in Ireland ? Mr Fleming ,nobody will invest to country with huge shortage of work force which we seen in 2023 !
The work force is a issue everywhere not just ireland
@@shaneflemingreAgree ! But we already have huge bubble on renting markets when people can't afford come for work to Ireland because property for rent are too expensive or there is shortage of it.For example why we have commercial property problem in Dublin? Because people can't afford work in Dublin because there is sky high price for rent or shortage of it so only they can work in Dublin is remotely.So here we have bubble on commercial and residential markets together.Next we getting emigration nrs raising from Ireland! So in the next year we will see very interesting situation in Ireland.The big tech and pharma will start to leave due with falling economic activity, bigger unemployment will put huge pressure on property market.We will not see it much before parliament elections but after we will see Full picture of it if you know what I mean.
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