Australia's Housing Crisis is Insane.
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- Australia's housing crisis has just worsened. Not only are Australian's having to invest 10x their annual income just to buy a home, the rental market is facing a huge supply problem. These factors are leaving Australian's unsure where to turn next. But is there hope on the horizon?
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★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★
0:00 Australia's Housing Crisis
1:20 The Problem
3:45 Housing Unaffordability
10:35 The Rental Crisis
12:25 Will Conditions Improve?
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Brandon van der Kolk is authorised to provide general financial product advice in Australia and is an Authorised Representative (Number 1305795) of Guideway Financial Services Pty Ltd, AFSL Number 420367. Any advice is general & does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives so consider whether it's appropriate for you. Read Brandon's Financial Services Guide available from guideway.com.au/NewMoney.pdf. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment returns.
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1300 per month is not 67,600 per year
Uh, doh! How did that one slip through... CORRECTION: $1300 *per week* or $67,600 per year. Thanks for pointing this out! I've pinned the comment so others can see.
@@NewMoneyCZcams
Lol money expert cant do simple sums
@@NewMoneyCZcams I think you were maybe thinking that 1300 x 12 x4
He said per week though. His video editor wrote month.
@@maalikserebryakov technicality error = can't do sums? Ok bro
It also doesn’t help that the QUALITY of new homes is absolutely atrocious. Builders commonly go into liquidation after settlement and start a new business to avoid repercussions.
Yeah the buildings are total P.O.S.
People in the trade will also tell you they wouldn't live in anything built after the 2000s
mainly due to two things, lax safety regulation so that they can catch up, and also because contractors take their merry time to then get an extension to the contract (ie. more money). They are incentivized to take as long as possible, and can get away with it thanks to the gang tactics of the CFMEU
Yeah thanks Leb developers
The walls are so thin that hail puts holes through the exterior walls.
Polititians don't care , they have a home . The rest can suffer .
Many of them have multiple investment properties so they're loving it.
Nah not true. They have homes. I remember seeing a video about a year ago where the guy took a parliament video and pointed out how many (publicly known) houses each individual owned. Paraphrasing a little, but about 10% only had one, about half had two, then a massive portion had 3+, a few had 7 and many with 3-5. Disgusting.
“Just F**k anyone who has no power, they aren’t me” - Australian politicians
Remember. You lot voted for these clowns
Seems like the solution to your problem is to become a politician
There is one more major factor this video doesn't address which increase the scarcity and prices of rental apartments in the City - overseas investors buying apartment units, not renting them out but just keeping them empty, waiting for the prices to go up and sell them in the future.. that has been going on for years!
Or using them as Airbnbs and taking them out of the usual rental market.
Oh you are spot on at the Merton building I lived in Brisbane cbd was full of this! There was a Mercedes parked that had dust on it and sat there throughout COVID unused the owners Chinese haven’t been back for years! Empty apartments sitting there rent went up by $150 a week we had to move out absolutely crazy
Quite right. Speculators are everywhere.
This is true. There are also investors running empty apartments at a loss with interest only loans to reduce taxable income while accumulating capital gain
The tax system needs to change if a over sea buyer
Don't open the place NO tax exemption they pay full tax rate.
So in 1988 a small Sydney house sold for $150,000, then 35 years later that house costs $1,100,000. that is an astronomical increase.
It is the same in the Bay Area, California. The ONLY area in the US with the same appreciation.
@@annasmith2783 it would have been a very clever investment.
@@JohnnysCafe_ that’s exactly the predatory attitude that makes the whole system suck and become highly inequitable for existing citizens. Homes are for people, families to securely live in, homes should never be for investment. It’s a very unfair system.
and the kicker is that home prices have increased far more than the wages we need to buy them!!!! we live in a real world game of monopoly!! time to eat the rich.
@@Janna773”homes should never be for investment” well that’s the take of an absolute simpleton 😂
I left Australia mainly due to the housing crisis . I had had a gut full of the Australian wet dream of property. It’s all by design. The banks, the real estate industry and the Govt have all colluded to create the great divide between the haves and have nots. And we Fkd up with immigration too. The Australian dream is over for the majority
couldn't agree more
Where can I go to escape it
Where did you go?
I came to live in Malta, but the same thing happened here with property:( the lifestyle is cheaper but. I have heard amazing things about Portugal
The lower-income people are paying the tax, the cashed up, and multiple property owners, private investors, and overseas investors all get a tax break. They got Insulation rebates, solar rebates, and renovation grants all on the lower classes' dime, the only money the government has is from the taxpayer.
My father used to laugh at me when 25 years ago I told him half jokingly that one day we will all be paying over a million to buy a house. And now I seen it all come true, along with the mass surveillance of the entire world population as predicted in many of the movies of that time.
Just save in gold and this problem goes away
@Anrirua as in like buying gold bullion bars? I think that's the correct term 😅
Whats his reaction to the economy now?
@@epistarter1136 Sadly he passed away some years ago, Made it to 84 so he had a good run, but am sure he would have been surprised at how high prices have gone, the place we own has gone up 500k in 10 years. But things change as they always do just have to see. The Chinese property market is collapsing because of the Ponzi scheme they were running , lets hope it doesn't affect our market too much.
Australia and large land countries should really invest in high speed rails and metro transportation systems similar to Japan where additional hubs can be expanded into surrounding areas around the cities
It has been dreaming for how many years, the government is never able to make a long-term plan as with two parties never have an agreement.
The problem is it's way too expensive for our government in its current state to ever consider fully. To build a high-speed rail between Sydney and Melbourne, you'd have to redo basically all of the alignment of the track, since right now it's single-track and full of corners. The current XPT to Melbourne only runs at a max of 160km/h even though it's capable of 200km/h, and even then that's only in small sections. I think they should focus on smaller issues that take less time, since then they can actually complete it, and show that improving rail infrastructure is important for the country.
In terms of metro though, we are investing a lot in that. Here in Sydney there's already the city circle and T4 lines which are pretty good, and then the actual Sydney metro will be expanding into the city very soon. Melbourne's also got a metro line opening that goes right under the main CBD, and Brisbane is getting the Cross River Rail which does a similar thing.
Melbourne doesn't even have a train to its international airport yet. One will likely be built within the next decade via the airport line and the Suburban rail loop, but its best to simply not expect anything like high speed rail to compete with airlines
Can't mate, too many people getting haircuts
@@mauz791 the the Airport Rail Link isn't really part of SRL, it was just rebranded as "SRL Airport" and included in the SRL plans, but it's still a whole separate project
I’m a 25 year old, forced to move back into my father after being priced out of a rental. My parents divorced 8 years ago and now my mum also has to move into the house as she has no where to go and will be homeless. In 2 weeks my sister and her husband will be moving in too with their pets. It’s ridiculous
Gross
Sadly your future job prospects and housing prospects are being given away by mass immigration policies.
Also you'll be paying for new roads schools and hospitals interpreters etc because of our of control mass immigration policies.
Massive out of control immigration policies are stealing your future.
I’m in a similar situation
F That, Ill be in my car if you need me
Great summary.
Builder here, I do around $200mil a year across residential and commercial. Since last October $23mil of projects on my book haven’t gone ahead due to lack of land, changing profitability. This is only creeping up and I don’t blame anyone for not taking the punt on new projects.
Also the regions for affordability have been ruined by opportunistic city dweller investors. The regions were safe and cheap for retirees, country workers and other people needing that product (think people with disabilities, low income). There is no where to go now, the same pain a successful couple feels paying $1000/week in rent whilst they try and save for a mortgage the regional people are feeling proportionally or worse with their changing dynamics.
It’s just a sad story all around right now.
As a regional Aussie, I can confirm this, my area used to be affordable for housing, after Covid ended, and people rushed out of the cities to regional areas... The prices of houses and rents have really blown up, I don't know why people are still moving out here when there are no houses, jobs or infrastructure for all these new people.
To be fair, in the past couple of weeks, I've seen a few up for sale signs, I haven't seen that in a long time, but the prices are still sky high.
The QoL in this country is going to keep declining from here on out.
RIP The great Australian dream.
The regional areas are seeing a price spike. The city suburban areas are too. In fact, a $500k-$600k home in many regional towns are selling for $3m+ in many parts of Sydney!
We can say that human greed is ruining it for everyone. The policies made by Gov are increasing the divide between the rich & poor. I'm appalled & saddened how Australia currently is
@@Turd_farmerThat's because you got to be asleep to believe it. 😂
Overseas migration 2022-23 - net annual gain of 518,000 people. Where is the infrastructure for these people?
The government doesn't care. They and their rich mates are making money.
Exactly, there is a c0mmunism objective take over for us here
Yes that's a big part of the bottle neck that people are not talking about
Look at box hill Marden park in Syd not a lot of that land had any connection to services besides power
I had a family friend who lived in Box Hill only thing connected on his property was power no water in no sewer out telephone lines weren't on every street it really was the sticks
Now not 15 years later something like 50,000 new residence's in that post code and I don't see a single waster treatment facility besides pumping stations
So where are they pumping to? it's not Bondi it's the hawksberry river
And where are the new dams to supply water to these people?
Or the new roads or rail for them to commute
The real world quality of life and environment lays in the hand of government
And they make more money by doing less it is a negative feedback loop
The government doesn’t care about anyone
It’s there. We have enough houses but half of them are empty and used as “investment properties”. Migration isn’t the main issue with this problem. The issue is greed. They’re holding houses back from entering the market to artificially keep prices higher.
AIR B&B needs to go
100%
It needs to go world wide!
They banned it in Vancouver. Has not helped at all. Now there is a large hotel shortage make room rates ridiculous
If people stopped using them, they would naturally disappear. Unfortunately the same friends of mine complaining about not being able to buy a house always use Air BnB when they travel. I bought a house in a smaller town and WFH but stopped supporting Air BnB years ago!
Good segment, you mentioned some of the big issues driving the crisis. There are other factors too which are worth a mention.
Some have already made mention of the tax incentives of property ownership but there are other factors such as government initiatives, there's been many of these such as first home owners grants. Everytime the government introduced these housing prices rose in line, builder grants, same deal, the government is just about to introduce zero deposits for first home buyers, again the net result will be higher demand and consequently higher prices.
And a big factor is most Australian politicians wealth is held in real estate, they are of the age that has benefited most from the price increases.....not one of them will make a policy to negatively impact themselves.
Yep. My local member owned 13 investment properties.
Your last paragraph is the main point. They will never shoot themselves in the foot they are too entrenched in having 5 houses and negative gearing they would all go bankrupt if they made a policy like rent control or stopping international buyers which both would fix the problem very quickly as has shown in other countries
it's rent, not owners that is the problem. the concept of rent is anti-capitalist scam, it's pretending to sell, you've got most of your houses that could be on the market no being sold because of some scum calling themselves a landlord. Capitalism is about buying and selling and work being rewarded, the concept of rent is an insult to capitalism and those that practice it should not consider themselves worthy of oxygen or welcome in any decent capitalist society.
Tax incentives are great when there is actual supply because they directly (and indirectly) help finance new builds, which is part of the supply equation. They are useless when state governments stop onboarding supply. They are inefficiently allocated elsewhere.
Exactement.
Don't forget the amount of builders that are collapsing, seems like we have a new one every week, also the quality of some of these new homes, especially in NSW, construction is rife with shortcuts and corruption in the past decade plus.
that's why builders are collapsing, if the company no longer exist, they don't have to provide warranty, on their poor construction
And sll the huge infrastructure projects the government's having to build to cater for mass immigration is sucking up all the tradies. High pay low risk work compared to house construction.
And the Government and Builder Associations conspire to restrict, constrain, inhibit the owner-builder who has the guts or gumption to DIY like I did back then !
I worry this may be an indicator of future doom
Inflation has to be covered be high costs.Deregulation is always in favor of industry and investors not the customers. If you ask who pay the building inspectors and regulators you will find that they are the industry that builds. It is conflict of interest.
You’ve missed some pretty big ones on the demand side. There is Negative Gearing for tax purposes, Capital Gains Tax Concessions, ability to use tax advantageous vehicles like trusts, foreign investment is allowed and now the ability to buy property through a self managed super fund.
And the various “first home buyer” schemes that artificially and quickly spikes demand.
I personally think that negative gearing encourages investors that in turn increases rental supply. Without it, it wouldn’t be feasible to invest in property and those starting out (immigrants and the young) would have nowhere to live. Plus, investing for your future is a good thing as it reduces the future tax burden at retirement age.
I can tell you now negative gearing would have little impact. I’ve been an investor, negative gearing made no difference to me buying or not. The amount you get back is nothing in comparison to servicing the loan. At the end of the day, you need to be able to service the loans and losses throughout the year before you get anything back.
@@michaelf6710 I agree with negative gearing for newly built properties but not pre existing. It only means an investor squeezes out a first time buyer so they end up renting off the investor. If there aren’t incentives to be a property investor, then investors would turn their money to productive income streams like shares instead.
@@mimbec if you’re a top tax bracket income in Australia there is huge benefit to make a tax loss when there is continuous capital growth. If it would do very little as you suggest, why have it? UK scrapped it on rentals and have now just scrapped it on short term/holiday lets too.
@@michaelf6710 Sort of. It encourages investors who buy NEW properties to increase rental supply and potentially at some point in the future, will permit ownership by an owner occupier IF it then becomes available to the market. Negative gearing only serves the purpose of encouraging supply when it is used to build new dwellings. The argument that it benefits rental supply would be true if it weren't forcing home owners to become rentrers by allowing investors to outcompete them. We now have an irrational situation where it is assumed that property values increase perpetually, forever. Any rational investor in the current market with access to investor concessions that you have already mentioned will focus their calculations on yield. Therefore, those with the capital invest will concentrate wealth into blue chip established markets which are absolutely no benefit whatsoever to housing supply just so that they can later sell their $8m Mosman townhouse investment a year later for a 10% gain. Not bad for them when they make $800k gross profit from an established dwelling at the taxpayer's expense.
Please do more videos on Australia! I often watch on my tv so I can not comment from that device but after seeing this video I knew I had to comment to encourage you to do more videos on Australian issues. Keep up the great work!
It's really horrible the housing crisis here. Renters are having a really hard time, I moved to a rural area myself as I got priced out of my home town of 20 years.
All caused by fiat currency. America going off the gold back dollar is the reason our kids won't ever own a house
Fast train to link more rural areas would certainly help to reduce prices if it means that you live out of the city and easily commute in
no leave rural areas alone,
@@beaulieuc8910 haha, I know how you feel
Australia with all its natural resources should be economic heaven with high disposable incomes, low taxes for all and free public health, education and all other services.( similar to Norway). Through government mismanagement we have the opposite. Successive Australian governments mis-manage everything they touch and this is now where we are at.
@davidbrent9660 I partially agree with you, the problem is that the largest generation in therms of population are the baby boomers, so the policies that governments put in place were for them to win their vote. This means that over time the policies suited buying multiple homes, and of course baby boomers need renters for their investment portfolio.
Norway has a 50/50 stake in their resources. Australia sold everything to private corporations and taxes them barely more than they subsidise them. So Australians pay more for Australian resources because the majority are sold overseas, and Australia doesn't see the profits.
@@kingsarues1586people need to wake up and realise this. They get away with it because we have great living conditions. But we are paying people to mine and sell our country and then paying them for our own energy. We should have a happy middle class
Medicare is not free
I think you're the only one who has mentioned the real problem. Australia's population is extremely concentrated in the big 5 cites and there has been a major lack of investment in regional development for decades.
It’s because of efficiency. It’s more economical to deliver service to people in major cities than regional areas. It’s like that everywhere.
No, he misses the point by a wide mark. If _dwelling shortage_ was the problem, then vacant land (especially land unsuitable/undesirable for residential development) should not be growing in price at anywhere near the same rate as established houses or apartments. But prices have been going up in all Australian real estate categories, including rural land, since the 1980s. The trend line is almost an exponential curve. He cites Dubbo as an example of a place less desirable to live than Sydney (fair enough). Median family income in Dubbo is $1503/week vs Sydney $2026/week, per 2016 census data. So the half a million dollars you'll pay for a three-bedroom family home in Dubbo (exclusive of the cost of servicing finance over the lifetime of a mortgage) only sounds like a good deal to someone earning white-collar money in Sydney. Especially when you factor in amenity issues like climate and access to healthcare.
As much as people hate him , Barnaby Joyce has been calling for decentralisation of government departments into regional areas to help growth for over a decade .
Drive around Adelaide there is no shortage of land in established area's. Cashed up boomers are land banking. Holding vacant land is better than money in the bank. Even the state governments is doing it. It's a cartel, government is supposed to pass laws and govern the country for the betterment of all not just the wealthy.
Society in every western country is being degraded by the same issues.
50% discount on capital gain for residential investments, negative gearing has just got to go.
It is not like Hong Kong which has a lack of land , Australia has a huge amount of vacant land , it only needs to be developed
RBA kept interest rates too low for too long. On top of that RBA allowed huge amount of liquidity to flood the banking system. Low interest rates have moved money into unproductive areas like property investment. Lower inflation and lower property prices will encourage more houses to be built.
If an activity or service creates economic activity, it is productive.
Government is the biggest expense in this Country, but the plebs keep voting for Government to grow bigger & bigger
@@andrewkerr5296 Which party is advocating to cut government jobs and expenses?
@@hurrdurrmurrgurr
None because voters don't want it
A productive investment generates income for that investment. An unproductive investment is one that does not generate income ie no profit comes out of it. Your second sentence seem to agree that government spending is unproductive and is not happy about it. If you borrow money for a productive investment that generates 50% profit and you borrow at 10% interest, your debt will be paid off easily. The government borrows money and expand the workforce. It will not generate any profit to pay the interest if every year the budget is in deficit.
Australia's property problem is created by the RBA which was/is lacking in their will to enforce good governance. It is like a parent giving lollies to the children when they ask for them.All other RBA governors were tough except for the present and the last one. The present one even has a conflict of interest.@@andrewkerr5296
Property investment compared to business investment is comparatively less productive and locked huge amount of money in them. The multiplier effect is much less compared to business investments. Property indebt people and rentals are cost to business. They reduce economic activities rather expand like bussineses. The construction part is the only productive part while the long term effect burden economic activities. If governments try to inflate the property sector, it will only burden the country and the people.@@andrewkerr5296
Well, it might take a little bit longer than explained in the video the housing market to be softer..... Because of the reason, the last 2 years, more than half of the buyers coming to the open house or auction to get house were "New Australians (from Chinese culture area or Hindi cultural area in Asian countries....) They are not highly depending on the mortgage from Australian banks. Because of they were bringing their families wealth from their mother countries. It was the reason why, "Interest rate hiking" did not effect this crazy housing price rising.
I am a local property sales agent in Queensland....
Same thing is happening in Canada and it’s happening because Chinese millionaires and billionaires have to park the money somewhere. And they love overseas housing investments.
And the reality of the money that they invest is ill-gotten gains they are hiding. If a Westerner was doing it would be called money laundering and they would go to jail.
@@joelG1272 Yes but remeber being billionaire in china is like being oligarch in russia, you dont own the money you just have access rights to it till u don’t.
Money Laundering !!! The Federal Police and the local government should seize their assets, put in the jail and/or deport all people involved in the " Ponzi" scheme and give back to the community their assets way cheaper !!!
In Canada you have a limit on rent rises per annum don't you?
And Canada and Australia are the only countries with negative gearing, which makes investment property buying more attractive
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 15.4% to 17.5% and 5.25% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
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@eloign7147 baby we in a recession... it's most definitely going to get worse
it’s worth mention that the blue ribbon suburbs or affluent suburbs do not have this problem, as they don’t sell for mortgage stress and that they are increasing at a higher rate then the average suburbs
Stop using this bs phrase blue ribbon... get fxxx
I reckon a solid solution could be attempting to further embrace more remote work. Allowing people to not have to live in major cities while also being able to do the same work. Someone could live in a smaller town or rural area but also be able to work major city jobs remotely which can allow more homes to be made in other areas of the country.
My company has just mandated a return to office for at least two days a week for literally no good reason. Save the CBD for people who genuinely need to work onsite. Normalise remote work, and we might see country towns grow into something new again when people move there for affordable housing.
@@AlaskaRS yeah exactly right. I’ve had pretty good luck with my profession as a software engineer as there are still a lot of remote jobs out there especially for niche things but I’ve heard a lot of bad things about other professions trying to get people back
Make it a government law.
Remote work must be an option if the work does not require physical presence for main operations such as a mcdonalds employee or laborer.
The employer must provide the remote work and respect it if the employee chooses to work remotely for whatever reason.
government housing. simple
@@eagwrevbrew43no
The thing people don’t consider these days vs our grandparents, is the rise of women in the work force. Where a family used to be a single income household, they’re now dual income households. This makes it a huge disadvantage in buying a house when you’re single.
It’s virtually impossible.
How’s about not being single? The main reason why immigration is so high rn are low value males having too many chances in workplaces then end up never reproduce and making the country main incomes from natural resources or educations.
Yeh it’s almost impossible to buy a house if your on average wage and single
100% it's so hard to talk about changes in society in history and how that has affected the society over x time. Especially this talking point as people quickly react as though it's all sexist
Women in the workforce really have nothing to do with it. In fact, it's hurt society MORE.
People in many countries have been saying the same thing, why are you bringing in record migrants during a housing crisis? It's not due to incompetence, it's deliberate and nefarious.
Houses in my suburb went up by 40% in 2 years and there were like 20 cars at every rental inspection.
Government does not want a recession, so it can go to an election stating they have avoided recession unfortunately the country is now in a
per capita recession it's hilarious
All planned, the more they bring in, the more they destroy the average Aussie.
Most migrants don't have 2 dimes to rub together, at least in the US, and I would guess in most of the world. I guess you could blame them for a top to bottom housing problem, but I doubt it's a valid argument.
@@lachlanoma8236 it's not about hating immigrants but the policy of suddenly pumping the numbers we can't handle and they aren't bringing in people who can build houses either.
@@garysparks2681 doesn't matter if they have money they will still get money from the government to rent but stock is so low it's pushing many others into buying which pumps the market further.
Why no mention of Air-bnb or short term rentals? Thats has had a large impact on the rental crisis.
Don't forget the we let half a million people into our country and we have no kept up with expanding our hospitals building more housing ect
I agree with your comment, the same impact here in Canada. Just makes real estate hoarding more appealing
@@jadetaylormarchant6189it's indians... and chinese.. stop letting them in. only allow hot chinese girls under 35 ...
It's just mass migration.
Airbnb soaks up less than 2% of the Aussie housing stock. On the other hand, migration accounts for 2% of population growth each year (!). The problem isn't Airbnbs, but the lack of government led social housing schemes to build new & affordable homes for low income people.
Reduce overseas migration, ban foreign investment in residential property unless they build new houses and tax the s***t out of them, limit the number of properties one individual can own. It won't be nice but it's necessary.
Overseas migration is about the only thing keeping Australia viable as a civilised nation. Sorry to break it to you but the culture and education system here simply does not produce anywhere near enough of the high skilled professionals that you need to be a first world country, it is an extreme stroke of luck for Aus that it has attractive weather and beaches that bring in enough people to fill the absolute vast gaping holes in those spaces. Sadly tradies and beauticians aren't enough for an economy to survive so migration is essential for Australia, the issue with rental and housing prices is not related anyway, it is a deliberate bubble created through tax and monetary policy by the govt for decades to keep them and their boomer voters wealthy.
Is there a country that's not going through a housing crisis right now? Ireland, USA, UK, Portugal, Spain, France, i swear you cand find a video on every single european country at least.. What's happening
Thanks to Indians abandoning their country, no.
A million different factors. Some avoidable, some unavoidable
Corporations buying everything up?
It’s airBnB’s fault
Boomers got their houses for a sock full of nickels and then started fighting tooth and nail to stop other housing developments so that their property values would go up. Then after 2007 no one wanted to build houses anymore because they were rapidly falling in value.
I am an immigrant living in Sydney Australia.
I work as a stonemason for high end jobs. Most of my customers are investors and they don’t live in the house. I help build around 4/5 multi million dollar home, by the end be an empty place for investment, eventually they sell it and someone will live there.
The main problem that we are facing is a huge gap between wealth inequality because our monetary system, everything else is just a bunch of BS.
This is exactly the issue, the supply issue is a fantasy propagandized by property developers. 13% or over a million homes were vacant at the last census.
I have customer that own more than 100 houses in Sydney. They dont work not even 30hours a week, just an old money.
Meanwhile an average person cant buy a tiny apartment.
Exactly
@@viniciuszampirolicerqueira2212
Food, Healthcare, Living Space, Transport
Are essential to the citizen. So its the government’s job to keep these markets under control.
There should be a limit to the pricing power of sellers, and the amount a single citizen can own.
It seems quite common sense now that I think about it.
@@maalikserebryakovYou forgot clothing. The Labour government is introducing, or trying to introduce, a 99c tax on that now too which will be applied to manufacturers (i.e. you will see it in the form of marginally higher prices but won't connect it with the government.
yeah it sucks but think of it this way: at least the pollies with extensive real estate portfolios are winning
Didnt John Howard do something which turned homes from being homes to being money making investments ? I reckon that has something to do with this, ppl buying homes jisy to make money which takes supply away from first home buyers
Yeah bro.. howard and his first home owner grants did this.. nothing to do with albos 775k africans that steven miles has crammed into every available property
@JReklis it wasn't first home owner grants, didnt he bring in tax concessions for negative gearing ? I could be wrong but I think he did that. I'm a Labor voter and I hate labors migration numbers, im with you there, it's my biggest gripe with them
@@Seanype No he didn't
@@Seanype negative gearing was introduced in 1922
The 2000 olympics was when it all changed. I was in a rental and the price went from $250-$450.
You’re right at the same time Howard ushered in all this mess.
Similar situation in Canada. Immigration exceed the pace of construction. New homes or rental apartments, the prices are insane.
“You’ll own nothing, but you’ll be happy.”
I'd say it's worse in Canada.
True but immigrants aren't responsible for the lack of housing supply. A lot of potential developments get nixed by local residents not wanting their neighbourhoods to change. Too much NIMBY-ism
Same thing in Germany
I came to say the same thing. You could change Australia in title of the video to Canada and change the city to Vancouver (3rd in his list), Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal.
Our landlord was trying to increase rent to $1,350 in Newtown, so we moved to Perth and are paying $750 per week ($250 less than before) are on higher wages, lower cost of living, we have an extra bedroom and a much more relaxed lifestyle and we just love it here, we moved into our new place 3 days ago.
I’ve lived in Perth my whole life and $750 rent sounds mad to me, just depends where you’re from I guess, I’m sure Perth prices will continue to go up.
@@claren2792 yeah everyone here said it’s insane but to us it was a bargain, keep in mind we are 3 adult roommates so it’s only $250 a week each… still a lot but more manageable than the $450 each to live in Sydney
Paul Keating 'if it ain't Sydney, you're just camping out'.
Shhh, don't tell people about Perth.
Perth is full of noongas
Great Video!
It was interesting to see the rental price increase put in the context of landlord cost-push and then decreasing supply.
"Rising interest rates have made mortgages more expensive for landlords and thus they have been increasing rent in attempt to maintain the profitability of their investments but beyond this factor another primary force behind an increase in rental costs is simply the reduction in supply"
I've seen this statement throw around a lot and I've always had a hard time buying the first part of it (renters accepting rent increases due to rate rises and not because they have no choice).
Specifically to say that if landlords increased the rent on properties to keep their houses profitable implies that before the rate rise that they could have been charging more given the same vacancy rate. For example if my landlord tried to pass on a rate rise to me while there was a high vacancy rate(eg. Sydney 2021, ~3.1%), I could move into an empty home for less money). However if my landlord increases rent today (as an interest rate pass on or for any other reason) while the vacancy rate is Low (eg. Sydney 2024, ~0.9%) I would keep my mouth shut and take it because it's that or be homeless. Likewise if the rates went up and there was a high vacancy rate then I doubt my landlord would attempt to pass on the costs and risk becoming an empty household.
I've always felt like the idea of landlord increasing rent to covering increasing costs was an attempt to humanise landlords and they (in the long run) charge as much as they can get while internalising any deficit to account for a perceived decrease in risk. Eg. forgoing rental increases to a renter like a family because in the long run the family is a reliable tenant.
Just a thought, happy to have it picked apart.
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Its the same issue in regional areas. I am trying to buy in Gold Coast and its a nightmare. Same all the way up the coast, Sunshine coast and Noosa all ridiculously overpriced.
Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are not regional, they are within commuting distance of Brisbane CBD. Many folks make that trek to work.
@@trythis2821 They are still defined as regional by the government and home affairs.
@@tommygunTW1 Doesn't mean it isn't some of the most expensive real estate in Australia.
@@trythis2821 It doesn’t really have any right to be. Apart from being close to the beach, there is no city there. The closest is Gold Coast but this is still largely a tourism hub. Sunshine coast is very quiet with not much going on. Where is the logic that property prices should be on par with Sydney? You can’t compare it to North Shore Sydney because those areas have it all.
But hey, you can always go Toowoomba!
If the government stopped wasting money in the big cities and built quality infrastructure in the regional areas and made it more attractive to do business, hence create jobs which create jobs in return it would take the pressure off the bigger cities and give people more opportunity to own a house as well as a way better work life balance. Win/Win.
I made the move a few years ago. Life’s never been better . Couldn’t pay me enough to go back to the hamster wheel….
Thank you - that was a very clear summary of the situation
Cheers Damien!
Bloody great video, its been awhile since of watch your channel probably a few years. Your content is sharp and really well put together, keep up the good work.
Where I live in Ireland, someone listed their shed for €195K. "1 Bed 40 m² Detached". Wild.
You should start selling detached shoeboxes, 5k. We had some of that nonsense in the rental adverts too though. It was a run down shed for like $400 per week. Insane...
No immigration drama I hope
@@KoDeMondoUnfortunately massive across Europe. Far worse than Australia's predicament.
Look at Germany, Italy, Poland UK..
Ireland has taken in 500000 people in the last decade which is now 10% of the population. Perhaps 300k Irish people living at home into their 40s while the government pusts tens of thousands of Ukrainians and international applicants in hotel rooms, modular housing etc etc. All in the name of international refugee law but much more simply down to 'follow the money'. i.e. who owns the buildings. No fault of the refugees. Who wouldnt take a free home?? But fuck the governing parties and their corruption.
@@KoDeMondo Dublin had a riot a couple of months ago after a mentally ill Algerian refugee stabbed a woman and 3 children. Yeah. Like everywhere in Europe, Ireland's experiencing immigrant drama far worse than Australia.
@@AnriruaLooks over at the US and its over 10 million in just the past three years almost all of it illegal.
Out of control immigration is as bad, if not worse in Canada. Also buying of properties for investment and income.. Ridiculous!! The tax system needs to be restructured so if it's not your primary residence should be taxed heavily.
The carbon tax is pure bologna. Last month I used $36 on gas and paid $62 on the tax. It’s freezing here half the year so they are literally taxing us to stay warm. Our government needs a serious overhaul.
Thank you. Terrific research and analysis. Brilliant graphics!
Good video mate
Weird fun fact: infill Development, so the supply shortage side, in areas close to employment is regulated mostly by onsite car parking requirements within planning schemes.
All tiers of government making big announcements about fixing supply but this all comes crashing down when the local council plebs assess your development application using 30 year old planning principles.
The lower-income people are paying the tax, the cashed up, and multiple property owners, private investors, and overseas investors all get a tax break. They got Insulation rebates, solar rebates, and renovation grants all on the lower classes' dime, the only money the government has is from the taxpayer.
Not really, high income people pay more tax!
@@gavinlew8273 and so they should, but many pay a tax account to use all the tax loopholes to minimise tax to the bare minimum, thus pushing the tax burden onto those who cannot afford a high-paid account to do this for them.
The money pie is a given size, wealth is transferred from one person or group to another. Trickle-down should be called trickle-up.
That wester property for 1.9m is probably because the government released for multi story building to be built in Western Sydney. Some people had insider information as those will appreciate to sell to developers. No one buys a 1.9m falling apart property unless they know they can sell for hundred thousands more in a few months.
That property is in the Inner West (Enmore) and is a townhouse from a deceased estate, not in western Sydney.
It was in the inner city suburbs, and yes - many people in that area would buy a derelict house for $1.9m.
Make property taxes as follows:
Primary residence: 0% taxes
Second house: 150%
Third: 200%
Increase every subsequent house by 50%
Identical situation in Canada. But we have 2x the immigration. Also, people are not defaulting, they are staying home and not spending any money. Everyone is bored, streets are empty. Food is expensive me eating out is very expensive.
Property prices aren’t going to soften. The government will intervene the second it looks like prices will fall
How many politicians in Australia own multi investment properties , it is only in their own interests for property values to be high and property rentals to be high .
That is the problem house prices have to fall, A HOME IS A HUMAN RIGHT so much BS
Very true. They have been keeping demand high and supply low deliberately for this reason.
Great video, spectacular editing, you’ve grown so much. Seeing one if your videos after a long time and very impressed to see the growth. Kudos
The rich get richer. Same old same old.....
Even if the scenario of the mortgage cliff would be true, where would these former house owners live with their families? Indeed they would need to rent, meaning increasing the demand in the rental market.
Good work. This video was a refreshing break from the endless coverage of Burry and 13f summaries. Thank you
Great video. Thanks for all the detailed and thorough research. Well done.
High land tax in Victoria also caused rents to go up.
Putting supply/demand issues aside, the money supply inflation in recent years has been a big factor. Enormous amounts of credit and other stimulus through the pandemic have literally diluted the shareholders. Your savings (the denominator) are simply worth less.
Taxpayers are now paying for the hugely over stimulated economy through 2020-22. Thank the RBA for getting it wrong so often. There had to be a reckoning of some sort. You're the finance guy, you would know yeah?
Negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts etc promote INVESTORS to buy up property and squeeze out first-home-owners. Huge hole in your “analysis”.
So we’ll put together and so clearly explained! Love it!
I’m a new dad, I moved closer to Santa Clara a few years ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home there, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? I heard Nvidia and AMD are strong buys.
it’s a personal decision, but according to Forbes, housing activities will remain stagnant for the most part of the year, so maybe hold off a little.
This is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?
Sounds good. I sent an email and also I tried to set up a call, does she herself call?
Nvidia just have a big drop, think about it carefully.
Scam
I live in Los Angeles metro, California and its also been like this for a while.
First during the housing bubble 2004-2007. And now after Covid post 2020.
Average homes going for $1-$2 million USD.
Upper middle class $2-$5 million.
I haven't seen the latest valuations, but about 2 years ago my parents home was valued at around $800,000 in a working class neighborhood. That would have been the going rate without multiple bids (multiple bids are practically the norm now). They purchased it in 2000 for only $185,000.
Real estate is crazy the world over. And investors are at the core of it. Governments need to better regulate this. Whether its a company, hedge fund, or individual investor.
100%
In Sydney average is 1.6 million for a dump
@@samtannouri3665 Is that Australian or USD? Either way they're close, but if it's AUS $1.6 million, they're pretty much the same going rates after converted to USD.
Yes, it is economy grown artificially by uncontrolled globalization moving of population from third world countries . A way to cover the losses of inflation and lack of solution to solve the major problems.
You do realise investors provide rental accommodation and demand into the market to stimulate more development right? The issue is rising construction costs, supply chain disruptions, labour shortages and push back towards medium to high density developments from the community all limiting the supply side of the equation.
I agree there is a problem with affordability but i think there are many reasons why. During COVID i under took a 16 lot development. It was my first and last development. The fees from council and relevant authorities was stunning. Made me realize why blocks of land need to be so high just to cover costs.Then there is the cost of building? Just got some quotes this week for house insurance. Nearly fell off the chair when told how much we would need to rebuild. Not sure how house prices can fall when the costs to replace them are so high?
This is a great video!! I think in terms of why prices have gone up it would also be worth mentioning negative gearing and capital gains tax discount as contributors.
I bought a home in 2020 in country NSW. I sold at the start of 2023 after three years to avoid CGT. I moved my family to the coast, where i was told i wouldnt be able to afford the new prices and rates, now I'm stuck renting a shit heap that we can barley afford. Welcome to Australia.
Solutions:
1. Remove stamp duty for all new builds.
2. Reduce maximum home loan duration to 15 years.
3. Remove all first home buyers schemes.
4. Do not allow anyone to use super to purchase property, whether it be through the fund investing in REITs or direct property, accessing super early to buy a home, or purchasing property through a SMSF.
Imagine how difficult the repayments would be if you reduced loan duration from 30 to 15 years.
@@billedifier8584That's the whole point!
The bank wouldn't let you borrow as much. That's the point. @@billedifier8584
this only benefit rich
Thank you for highlighting this, I arrived in 2017 from the UK, then Covid happened. I can’t go backwards in time. I can’t own a house.
Covid happened in 2017 in Australia?
I thought it started in China
@@matthewsmith2362it was during 2020…..and yes it came from china…..
they’re saying *after* moving in 2017
Immigration is a massive issue causing the housing crisis.
Same issues here, greetings from the Netherlands
Is there a single western country without a housing crisis?
There is always a blowoff top before things crash... hard
There is absolutely nothing pointing to a housing market crash.. quite the opposite actually
@@jakeryan56100%
@@jakeryan56google 18.6 year property cycle...
Well they try to avoid it with few trick until won't be any left.
How is it going to crash when demand increases by half a million people every year?
Low supply due to construction costs, long and difficult approval process, and shortage of skilled labour.
High demand due to government policies encouraging property investment, low interest rates, government schemes that make it easier for people to buy homes with less money, mass migration, and foreign buyers.
There is a lot the federal government can do to to alleviate the housing unaffordability crisis but they choose not to for whatever reason. The only schemes they are willing to entertain are those that make it easier for people to buy homes they can't afford, which drives up demand and hence property prices.
Things the government can do include:
1. Increase surcharge purchaser duty for foreign buyers from 8% to 20% and get rid of the exemptions that are afforded to people in a select few countries
2. Limit foreign buyers to one property
3. Decrease immigration of unskilled labour and incentivise immigration of skilled labour in the construction industry
4. Rework negative gearing
5. Subsidize construction based on results
6. Create policy and/or work with councils to shorten approval process
7. Penalise large property portfolios
lift zoning and heritage restrictions. enable high density. build more public transport instead of roads
I don't agree with 5 & 7, otherwise these are reasonable suggestions. The basic solution is to increase supply to match with demand, but there needs to be an increase of employment opportunities in regional areas and coastal towns to take pressure off the major cities.
At this point worldwide
The power will have to be taken most likely
Populist movements happen in times like this. Then war
@billedifier8584 why don't you agree with 7? Is it because it doesn't allow free market conditions? Because let me tell you, if blackrock owns 85% of the world's wealth and focuses on property, it's not a free market anyway
@@TryABaconSlice Yes, essentially because it restricts free market competition and where should we draw the line between large and small? if an individual or group wants to build or maintain wealth, ownership of property is a valid vehicle to use. There are mechanisms in place to prevent entities such as Blackrock monopolising sectors of the market.
Very interesting and useful information, thanks for the video.
Just as I got to the end of the vid I thought to myself this must have taken ages to put together because it flowed so well and I understood new concepts -then you mentioned that it did take time
I enjoyed that and I will check out the rest of your vids- I'm interested in quantitative easing during covid maybe you can or have already covered it 😊
By design
I always think that Our Canada is really the twin-brother in the north of Australia. Same problem, same politics (mass immigration) and a lot of similarity (Education, healthcare, etc..)
make their money the same way, mining...
Yeah, weather is very similar. And of course cricket is the top sport in Canada 😅😂😂
Excellent, excellent video. This explains in great detail while also being simplistic to grasp. Love the graphics as well. Very well presented video, well done!
Good info, thanks.
This was decided in 2007 when I first heard the term rentier capitalism being discussed.
I had to look that up, 'rentier capitalism' OECD neo-marxist thinktank stuff.
If you’re young, get a trade and move to a small regional town where there’s more opportunity and land is still cheap. Forget uni education and big city living.
Tradies are only getting paid well because of the housing bubble, when it pops they will be out of jobs and their income will dry up, unfortunately.
You my man, are intelligent.
Can you give some example of a trade(s) that would be useful in a small regional Australian towns? Been working on computer all my life.
The land isn't cheap and building a house definately isn't cheap in the country
The boomers have driven the price up in the country...downsizing tree change etc
Thank you for sharing!
Build a fast 30 min train from Newcastle to Sydney and develop port stephens into sydney harbour 2.0 you could build 2 million homes around there easy.
Yep... and keep it going south. Nowra / Shoalhaven region could support 2 million people. Australia's blue banana
Port Stephens residents would like to have a word with you. It would Involve pitchforks.
MORE GROWTH BUILD MORE HOUSES MORE SUBURBS MORE PEOPLE BIGGER GDP MORE MIGRATION STUFF THE ENVIRONMENT
Thanks for posting some Aus content! Totally understand the US centric videos but would definitely love some more local content where possible.
Also, you shouldn’t have included Adelaide in the list of big cities. Need to bring less attention to our little slice of paradise so our house prices remain more affordable than Melb/Syd/Brissy. 😂
Totally agree on the US content 🥱
It’s also the way to fight (and hopefully beat) inflation.
When people are no more capable to keep their spending habit.. they will step back.. recession hit.. prices drops..
1 million dollars for an ordinary house? That is insane. Here in America you can still get a house for $300,000, and we feel like that’s bad.
God Bless America
Try 1.6 million in Sydney for a dump
40 acre farm in northern Rivers with a rundown farm house sold for $6 million. Couldn't believe it.
Yeah, but 5 out of the 15 cities on the list for highest cost of home vs income are “here in America”. I’m pretty sure you can buy something for that price in Australia too. Just not in the major cities.
@@Bu-22 Yow won't get anything for $300,000 in any Australian city. Maybe in an outback town in the middle of the desert. Out dingo piss creek.
Excellent video my man, outstanding explanations 👌 i don't normally watch videos like this but i was glued to your presentation
Beyond insane!
I have been acutely aware of the property price rise, the length of time required to save for a deposit, and the household debt rise, since BankWest released its annual first-time home buyers deposit report in 2009. Unfortunately, this bank appears to have either stopped doing this annual report or stopped publishing this annual report on its website, but I doubt we need to read another latest report to know what's been happening over the past few years.
I left 2 major cities in Australia in search for affordability and lifestyle. Settled in North Queensland and just purchased my 2nd property in the first 13 months of living here. Yes I'm half a mill in debt and now scraping by but I've managed to get a foot in the door. Now I'm confident I can build a future for wife and son. My suggestion for those struggling is to leave the major cities and invest in regional Australia. And I don't mean trendy areas, that ship has sailed. I'm talking about slightly run down areas with huge upside and potential. You can still buy a 3 bedroom home for under 350k, 10min from the beach. Work is an issue but you gotta start thinking outside the box and be willing to start a small business or completely change careers.
All the best to you, but regional homes are being snapped up as soon as they come on the market and prices have almost doubled since I moved here. You also have to find work and everything is so far away which adds a lot of money in petrol to your cost of living and shopping is far away unless you want to get gouged by IGA. I live regional and am so so blessed to have amazing Landlords who are more like my friends now. It can be hard to find basic things like Doctors ect as more and more people have the same idea as you. That ship might have sailed already. I feel for everyone who is trying to survive here, especially young families.
@@jesusisking8502 Partly true but not entirely. I just paid 375k for a nice 4 bed home which sold for 340k in 2009. Only went up 35k in 15 years! There are still spots that are massively undervalued. I have a hospital 3 min from my home, 2 supermarkets within 5 minutes and world class beach 4 minutes drive. Yes, buying stuff is annoying and so is the travel but that's the sacrifice you need to make to turn things around.
@@domlipski5226Well done. I love living out here, I agree with you; you have to make some sacrifices but it is not a huge deal to get ahead of this situation. I am renting from amazing people and my rent is so low I am stashing cash every week to eventually buy a house with no mortgage.
@@jesusisking8502 Well I'm glad you're saving well and hope you end up mortgage free asap.
Gladstone ???
Good video, you did miss a bit about the tax grants/offsets we give like Capital Gains Tax which caused housing/rentals to increase from 2010.
Also the negative gearing we allow, which means there is no downside to own multiple properties if you have a high income, just use negative gearing to offset the loss.
In a high interest rate environment, it makes zero sense that property prices are climbing as high as they are without outside impacts such as Foreign buying. Everyone knows this is a major issue and you'd have to be a fool to deny it
Massive country where ya can't catch a train for work, from Gympie to Brisbane and ya can't train from QLD to NSW.
Yup. Imagine the govt would invest in reliable, affordable and distance based public transport. We’d be unstoppable
Well put together video mate, it would have been cool if you could have delved into some options that us as a people could do to ease the pain across the board. I’ve heard of some people saying we should consider either grandfathering Negative gearing to 1 established dwelling per family, to others saying we should only do it on newly built dwellings providing they are rented on the long term private market, to others wanting to do a shorten and get rid of it all together.
In my belief when we shifted away from housing being a human right, into it being treated as a commodity and then everyone spruiking that it is the be all and end all have gotten us into this mess.
I have seen a graph somewhere, where our housing prices and wage prices are graphed as being somewhat in relation to each other until good ol Johnny boy introduced CGT break for investors in 99, then our housing has continue to outstrip our wages in comparison since.
All in all a great video and it does explain to some extent some of it, but yeah the rise of short term rentals, land banking, and some landlords I know have been buying houses and intentionally leaving them empty to inflate the prices on their other investments.
Such a sad world we live in, hopefully we can vote our way out of it and not listen to the Murdoch puppeteers.
I like this vid. Good insight and interesting.
Not only can you not take it with you... Now you can't afford it in the first place. Crazy times we live in!
You've missed the greatest influence on demand which is how capital gains tax concessions paired with negative gearing has made investing in dwellings that you don't live in a primary way for wealth generation. On Census night we had 13% of homes vacant, the "supply" issue is used to shield the real issue in which housing has been turned into a speculative race too the bottom, while all the young generations will be locked out unless they are lucky enough to get an inheritance. This is also paired with historically extremely low investment in public and social housing over the last couple of decades as well as the conservative party deliberately pausing wage increases for the decade they were in power. Immigration numbers are kept high to cover the fact we've been in a per capita recession for the last decade.
Absolutely, all governments have, for too long, been in favour of a certain demographic.
The greatest influence on demand is overseas (mostly Chinese) buyers.
@@thedownunderverse this is literally the opposite of the truth, in the 20-21 financial year 1% of property purchases was foreign investors...
@@MrPsychochickens That's a false statistic. There are massive amounts of purchasers that are taking place through local proxies that don't get picked up in the data. I have been attending auctions in Melbourne's East for a long time and I can tell you 3/4 of purchases are overseas. Chinese agents brag to me about this....
@@thedownunderverse mmm yes thank you for your personal anecdote but you way off.
Guys just remember that you basically pay for the land, the box on it is a depreciating dox. That building was worth nothing, but the land is worth $1.9M .
A building is worth a lot more than nothing! The value (capital) of the land only increases because of the profit (gain) that can be derived from it.
@@billedifier8584And that is increased by the development on it !
You're really only buying the box,the land you are renting off the council until you sell or they put a covenant on that land if you don't pay your yearly rent (rates).
@@billedifier8584 usually that is true but it does not apply to this example.
Fantastic video as always, you're doing a great service to your country mate!
One point missed in an otherwise good video is the ridiculous development approvals of local councils. Massive increase in time, cost and complexity are a total brake on new builds.
Developers have been making bank for years and now they're not.
New projects aren't going ahead and lending is harder.
Expect much more cheaply, poorly made housing to be built by developers.
Yet again boomers have screwed over the younger generation.
Great video mate....Good research, I am an Australian, but has not seen a better researched video from Australia.
He mentioned nothing about capital gains tax or negative gearing. Not a great video if you don't mention the 2 major drivers of investment into the housing market...
@@matthewmorrissey2376 @marydasan1 not to mention home buyer incentives that go straight into the sellers' pockets (First Home Buyers Grant, Stamp Duty Concessions, accessing superannuation, government co-equity)!
Great video as always. I'd like to hear your thoughts on this one: wouldn't approaching the mortgage cliff rather put pressure on the rental market with raises in monthly rents? My thought process: as homeowners have to pay higher instalments, they will increase the price of rents in order to maintain their profitability - this ofc just applies to investment properties
It's even worse if you look at it from a ""value"" perspective as the general build quality of our houses and apartments is awful and the cost of get renos or remediation is very high