The Stock Market is 'Priced to Insanity'.
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- čas přidán 31. 05. 2024
- Is the stock market currently 'priced to insanity'? In this video, we look at what the Dean of Valuation has to say. Aswath Damodaran recently gave an interview on CNBC where he discussed the current valuation of the magnificent 7, as well Nvidia's overvaluation, and 2 stocks he's been buying recently.
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★ ★ CONTENTS ★ ★
0:00 Priced to Insanity
1:40 The Valuation of the Magnificent 7
4:20 Nvidia's Valuation
8:00 AI Buzz is Lazy Investing
9:50 What About Microsoft/OpenAI?
11:20 Two Stocks Damodaran is Buying
My Podcast: / theyounginvestorspodcast
Brandon van der Kolk is authorised to provide general financial product advice in Australia and is an Authorised Representative (Number 1305795) of Guideway Financial Services Pty Ltd, AFSL Number 420367. Any advice is general & does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives so consider whether it's appropriate for you. Read Brandon's Financial Services Guide available from guideway.com.au/NewMoney.pdf. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment returns.
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Keen to hear everybody's thoughts on the Magnificent 7! Are any buys right now? What do you guys think of Nvidia?
Also, to learn 3 full valuation techniques --> newmoney.education/
Insanity would be AMD . It went up to 1300 p/e
Please find a way to remove the bots. You can blacklist some words that they commonly use
Why did you use 2022 FCF for nvda? They made 27 bil in FCF in 2023 not 3.8 bil as shown in your dcf analysis. I agree it’s overvalued, but it’s not nearly as bad as you are presenting. Might want to double check your numbers and redo that section of the video….
I also don’t think they’ll grow 12% a year from that 27 bil number, but the results are gonna be WILDLY different.
My vision to the magnificent 7 is that the expected growth is unsustainable because of only one reason. Power. At the current time there is simply not enough power available to get all the AI dreams running.
A lot of investment in power generation and transportation is needed to power all the computation that is needed for all the AI dreams.
Currently those investments are not happening at the pace that the AI dream needs. Without enough electricity the AI dream will slowdown.
We will get there but at a slower pace.
Currently there is a growing reliance to building new datacenters because electric grid are struggling with keeping up with demand. This is not only a issue in the USA, but also in other parts of the world.
Unsustainable the AI dream is, let’s call this a bubble.
Well as the saying goes, if you want to get rich in a gold rush - sell pickaxes to the miners, don’t mine for gold yourself!
It's a common misconception that when a stock you buy skyrockets, the smart thing to do is sell it (or at least sell some of it) to lock in your profits. But the context matters. If the stock has increased sharply because the business is performing exceptionally well, it could still be a bargain. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...
I think the safest strategy is to diversify investments. Like spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Viviana Marisa Coelho is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Market highs can sometimes be followed by corrections, but predicting the timing and extent of it is challenging. I've heard some analysts talk about a 'massive' correction. It makes me wonder if it's time to adjust my $2M portfolios or maybe even consider some defensive investments.
Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of stocks and stable assets. Seeking professional advice now could provide valuable insights and strategies to navigate market uncertainties and protect your investments.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Rachel Sarah Parrish” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look her up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
I'm curious, for someone with less than $80,000 to invest, how would you recommend we enter the market? I am open to study some traders and copy their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach?
It's not difficult, but you have to learn and handle. you should hire a CFP to help you diversify your assets to include ETFs/index funds/mutual funds and stocks of companies with consistent cash flows, rather than betting on penny stocks.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
There are many independent advisors to choose from. But I work with Monica Shawn Marti and we've been working together for almost four years and she's fantastic. You could pursue her if she meets your requirements. I agree with her.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my inherited portfolio of about $2.5m. I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Melissa up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
Your video serves as a calming beacon, particularly when financial markets are in tumult. Your analysis offers a prudent course of action, fitting seamlessly with the current stage of the economic cycle. Nonetheless, one cannot overlook the expanding mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies since 2019, as well as the fervent discourse surrounding prospective Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Might these elements sustain the market in this particular cycle? Speculation abounds that we are on the verge of a significant market upswing, making this a moment of great import for any discerning investor. My own portfolio, enriched by 34 bitcoins in a mere seven-week interval, serves as a compelling testament to Thomas Easton financial wisdom....
He is @ThomasEaston in TE L E G R AM...
Thanks for sharing his details. I Will contact him right way..
The clarity and precision in Thomas Easton market predictions are astounding. I'm so grateful to have found him insights.
Bitcoin is the way of the future, and investing in it will be the smartest decision you can do, especially with its present Price.
Thomas Easton strategy has normalized winning trades for me and it’s a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started.
Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Nice to see the bots commentating on the video within 8 secs of it uploading
Affirmative
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It's such a plague in CZcams. I don't understand why there can't be a crackdown on bots, AI trolls, and fake accounts.
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the power of nvidia chips
Transfer of wealth usually occur during market crash, so the more stocks drop, the more I buy, in the meanwhile I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fear increases, apparently there are strategies to 3x gains in this present market cos I read of someone that pulled a profit of $350k within 6months, and it would really help if you could make a video covering these strategies.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money or you could hire a financial expert.
Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2020, and I return at least $30k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.
Would you mind telling me how to contact this specific coach using their service? You seem to have the solution, as opposed to the rest of us.
I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Sonya lee Mitchell turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, looking for companies to make additions to boost performance
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
MARINA CAROLINA NICE is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I've lost more than 17k in this sliding Tesla stock. Why I can't make earnings is beyond me. It can be annoying how volatile the market is. How can I ride this fresh wave of all-time highs without getting burned again with 450k set aside to get fully invested this year?
Just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.
Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of stocks and stable assets. Seeking professional advice now could provide valuable insights and strategies to navigate market uncertainties and protect your investments.
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on Etfs and actively managed funds. I am up by 28% in 6 years under guidance.
I fired mine 12 yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?
She goes by ‘Heather Ann Christensen’....... I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
investors with a long term view are well positioned for the ultimate recovery because they understand that the market and economy will eventually revive. I'm doing great personally with insights from my IA Anna Rounds Fay in etfs and blue chips and will keep pushing hard on coins in this wild market. Right now, my portfolio is up 47%. I'm going to take a backseat and watch how this all works, gradually adding more stocks.
How did you manage to succeed? I want to invest more wisely because I have a lump sum that inflation is slowly depleting.
invest in stable stocks, my rule: if you previously liked the stock, then you should love it at a discounted price.
@@harrisahmed3066 I’m well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place with my IA
did a quick search and found her webpage. I must say her resume is pretty impressive.. will be writing her too
Thanks for the tip mister, i also reached out to her through her web and her responses were articulated. I'm more confident working with her now
I’m a god of devaluation, I buy it and it goes down!
I'm with you, the only two times Nvidia went down were just the day after i bought
One thing I can say with confidence about you is, you are not a bot.
So true!
Me too buddy, me too. 😀
😂😂😂😂😂 wtf
Roughly $120K in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.
Avert too-good-to-be-true con tricks. Consult a fiduciary counselor; these professionals are among the best in the business and offer individualized guidance to clients based on their risk tolerance. There are undesirable ones, but some with a solid track record can be excellent.
I agree, before the pandemic got real serious, I used to handle all my investment and I was pretty good at it, fast forward to post-pandemic and my-portfolio is steady in the red with profit rate down to the lowest, that's when I touched-base with a coach I saw featured on businessweek, who restructured my portfolio and over the last couple months, I've made over $850k from initially $210K
Smart, If i wanted to do the same with my retirement funds too, how do i get started trading?
@@JanineJ.Cromwell I work with Alicia Ann Jordan, a licensed fiduciary. Simply look up the name. The information you need to work with a letter to schedule an appointment would be included.
Sell all of your US stocks, Buy Alibaba & PayPal and UK stocks
Absolutely love it!!! I'll have to be financially stable in every sense before purchasing my first supercar. The best thing to do with your money is to invest rightly because money left saving will end up with no returns
No doubt being financially free and able to afford these luxuries cannot be overemphasized, making smart plans and setting up diversified investment portfolios is quite essential.
you don't need that much, as long as you have 250k to 350k in cash, and earn at least 40k plus is fine. It not like you are going to pay the car off, get the car, drive it for a year or two then get something else. You don't need millions of manov to oniov nico thinnc.
Most people miss it but the secret to retiring comfortably is finding a way to make returns while your money works for you. My Dad, as i remember started saving for retirement quite late but I know he was making more than 10k returns from his investments monthly and it was completely passive
I started investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about 200,578 after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost 673,000
@@cherylhills3227 Please could you guide me on how to get in touch with your consultant? My funds are being eroded by inflation and seek a more lucrative investment strategy to effectively utilize before I consider retirement
Seemed overvalued at 680$, just a couple of days ago it was above 900$ 💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀
I'm favoured financially with Bitcoin ETFs, Thank you buddy $32,000 weekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy. All thanks to Robert Layla
Seriously. how do you achieve that weekly. Please can you recommend
Layla's assistance was instrumental in my journey, Starting with my remaining resources, it proved to be an excellent decision.
It's always good to work with an expert to prevent loses
To be honest, investing is a smart way of securing our family future, grow wealth and beat inflation it's called working smart not hard
I'm glad seeing the comment section, Robert Layla is a real Trading genius. with her beginners strategy I transform my life and that of my family financial situation for good
Interesting how much has changed since the video had been recorded. NVDA in the 900s, TSLA, GOOGL and APPL down even more.
Nvidia pe is also down
Shows that even the experts can't predict the short term swings/time the market.
Yeah, and we didn't even film it very long ago! The market is moving rapidly at the moment!
@@bruhgod21
Overbought zone at its peak
@@lakshnaramesh9733 ok
I bought NVidia 2018 and sold early 2022 because it was overpriced... well, you can't win the "time the market" game I guess.
Still made bank though! Great investment dude, congratulations. 🥳
Its the best decision you could have made with the accessible information.
You’re an analyst, not a prophet.
I remember they said the same things about AAPL, Amazon, Google etc. back in 2016-2018 etc.
Look where they are now.
You high bro.
@@NewMoneyCZcamsbought Tesla and TSMC the same year. Sold Tesla January 2021. That was awesome, but Tesla peaked even higher later. I'm still happy.
great to talk about the terminal value! It has a huge impact on your DCF model. I do it slightly different. I use a perpetual of the last cashflow. I then use the CAGR of the industry (if the company is quite ''big'') since the company will eventually grow as much as the market grows. Then you discount it to today. Also, another problem with using a discount rate that is just ''made up'' is that it has a tendency to get too strict, therefore missing great chances. I therefore rather use the IRR rule and then look if the return is worth the risk. For me, these little changes in valueing have made big changes and made me way better in investing. This way you don't miss the starbucks or other great moat companies.
Wild how high NVDA has gone since then, nearly breaking 1000. It's *clearly* in bubble territory now. If I had NVDA holdings, I'd be cashing out a lot of them.
just happens to be a bubble that can make you go broke while waiting for it to pop, short-speaking.
Invest early, often, and remain invested. Buy a decent cross-section of an economy, and you should do well in the long run. The market will be high in ten to twenty years, and much higher in thirty. It is nearly difficult for a corporation with no debt to declare bankruptcy. Canada accounts for around 3% of the global marketplace, the United States for about 50%, and the rest of the world for 47%. Pay yourself first. It's about spending time in the market rather than timing it. With the help of my FA, Anna Rounds Fay, I maintain my market leadership. Bulls and bears make money, while pigs are butchered. - Some insightful words. -
I'm 50 and want to retire shortly. Would you agree that Google is going down shortly, and that buying then would be a wise way to increase my long-term profit? Also, would you think that investing with an IA is the best way to go given I have a full-time work that I am already committed to right now?
Thanks for the tip, will definitely give this a shot because to be honest I don’t think it’s safe keeping all that money
Personally, i would say Yes, buying would increase your long term profit an FA is the best route to go, simply because i use one and she seems to have proved her relevance to me a lot of times, but i would also say have a little bit of knowledge about stocks, Do a little research, with the little time you have on your hands especially since you plan to make it your retirement plan
Nice, you're a good guy for taking your time to properly explain this, i reached out to your FA also through her web and her responses were articulated. I'm more confident working with her now
Agree with you on Apple comments in the end. I do not see Tesla having much grown at this point mainly because there are no early adopters anymore and new costumers are much more price sensitive for the car market!
One of your best videos! You always have great content though so thank you
the problem is that finance people don't understand high tech. nvda isn't growing at a stable 12%, and "the other chip companies are waking up" is a ludicrous thing to say: other chip companies have been chasing nvda for a decade and have fallen more and more behind.
Believe me, Aswath understands some things about valuation. Nothing grows forever
@@yoverale it's not about forever, that'd be irrelevant anyway due to dfcf. it's about moat, other companies can't "just wake up and match nvda". only a finance guy would say that. it's ludicrous
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Elizabeth Wesley
You trade with Elizabeth Wesley too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
she's mostly on Telegrams, with the user name.
Wesley215 💯
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The key to financial stability is having the right investment suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.
Interesting, you also trade with Camila? That woman has been a blessing to me and my family as well.
Camila Lucinda concept is key in beating all odds to excel in this form of online commodity. Her management team is quite impressive so far, with SUK made a profit of over 28,863 dollars.
Wow wow please is there any way to reach their services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my loan for a while now, please help me.
I thought she was a scammer, but believe me, after meeting her for the first time at the UCLA financial conference held in the UK, she changed my ideology
NVDA’s FCF for fiscal year 2024 was like 27 billion compared to the 3.8 billion used for this Calc. That drastically changes the intrinsic value
You’re right. The problem is he doesn’t know the difference between calendar year and fiscal year.
love the excel sheet and the intrinsic value analysis!
Nice video, very analytical (something rare for these matters)
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months.
Started with 14k in last month 2023..
Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 then you woke up.
This kid flattened the s&p growth rate
Lmao
@@AnitaRays
Have you not heard of Lauren Hopkins ?
Woah for real? I'm so excited. Lauren Hopkins strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
Great video!
Solid IT Crowd reference ❤. Nice work graphics team 😂
The Tesla vehicle delivery numbers chart is wrong. It’s 1.8m for 2023. the chart just shows the first 3 quarters of 2023.
But have you considered buying fully into the FUD that Tesla is a busted growth story because a one year lull (only like 10-20% volume growth) before the $25k model is ready!? That and the financials look worse because Tesla is supposed to be magic and not supposed to be impacted by the auto market being cyclic--not like high interest rates directly impact purchasing power on products mostly purchased with loans!
I love the sale on TSLA and am buying greedily while folks who manage other people's money need to bail because the next few quarters will look bad.
Ah, thank you Matthias! Our bad!
This is good info mate thanks
I love how you did a DCF and showed Nvidia has to grow 40% over the next 10 years to justify the current price. That really boils it down to numbers which I like. Well done.
Hello, where did you get the price to free cash flow of 17 for Apple? Apple is currently valued at 2.7 trillion and the cash flow is 100 billion, so it should be closer to 27.
I agree. This is why I buy VT. Vanguards total world stock market at market cap weights.
really nice video, thx
My strategy this year is dividend etf, and 10% on Chinese company (BYD and Alibaba) due to their valuation
I agree! It's almost impossible to find stocks at a buying price at the moment!
Yesss, more vids where you do actual valuation and less with empty words!
Ha, he said this when NVDA was at $681!
He’s often wrong in the short term right in the long term
@@rohanpatel2828 my point is that NVDA is now even past "insanity." And, yes, he's absolutely right.
He is so right! Can you really be that naive
"the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
@@rohanpatel2828not impressed
Did you exclude the 2023 price to free cash flow multiple in the Nvidia example to get the the 10 year average of 58.37?
Interesting points made. Still, taking 12% growth for the FANG+ stocks may be a mistake. The Forward P/E ratio is another useful parameter to take into account that considers the estimated rate of growth. NVDA is expected to lower its P/E ratio by 3-fold in a couple years, which will drive it to a P/E ratio of only 29. And for those big stocks, the estimated growths are pretty neat, since they are followed by many WSt analysts.
You are right but for reliable forward P/E the growth estimates must be realistic.
Nice video. For someone managing less than a million, does it make sense to focus on mega cap companies that will be likely more overpriced than mid-cap as everyone is looking at those?
Just a thought on Tesla. I own a Tesla vehicle and we are constantly finding issues with it , the problem I have is that their customer service is terrible. They don’t want to hear about problems, take forever to fix the issues. They don’t care about customers at all.
@Begeye-bh5ux exactly
With a guy like Musk running it, focusing his time on X, are you surprised?
Thank you for recognising that by following Damodaran’s free lectures your financial guide is redundant and not economically justified. Video is great, as usual. Thank you!
Actually, everyone learns differently and everyone teaches differently. Some learn well from Damodaran, others from the New Money guy.
@@h.a.s.7336 for zero costs you will better learn from Damodaran.
Great video
solid video
It’s always been priced to insanity ever since stock buy backs became legal.
Would like to see an update on Mohnish Pabrai portfolio and any interesting recent interviews.
So pretty much plan for a huge pull back. Is how I'm taking it.
Well. To some It depends on the price of giving up control of the company or keeping control of the company.
The closest thing to a subscription I have is my sky high MewYork State electric bill which was $560 this month
Great video, but I assume it was created before the last earnings call and so your calls are a bit off with new info.
Annualizing last Qtr earnings, NVDA currently has a P/E of 45 (still high but more reasonable given its growth)
FCF valuation has to start at 27billion, not 3.8, with the release of the new numbers. Also IMO discount rate is a little high
For the Microsoft valuation, they (allegedly) are close to AGI, which essentially has unlimited growth potential (hard to put a weighted value on that)
The market is pricing in rate cuts which may not materialize
I'm betting they don't, personally
It is difficult to forecast future values accurately enough to use the DCF method. Hence P/E ratio is still preferable, and yes, the M7 are way over-priced by historical standards.
Your videos are fun to watch
Cheers!
It's funny seeing NVDA at $680 when it's now at $880. It's still only at a 36 forward PE.
They are overvalued but we really cannot underestimate the impact of AI
It looks like nobody underestimates them😂
Counterpoint: we can underestimate the impact of AI because if it achieves the most impactful goals, capitalism as we know it may collapse as we move towards a post-scarcity civilization as AI replaces all of us.
I honestly think people both, underestimate and overestimate AI at the same time.
The buck is up with these high stock prices
The opportunity us where no one is looking, outside the 7
Boeing is a buy now. Its too important to fail.
@@roketynoramallorca2882 i agree Boeing is an important company, however i'd personally wait a bit on buying their stock.. too much uncertainty still, this stock is down 10% since the door issue, and we now know about southwest order delay/cancelation, and the overseas flight that drastically dropped elevation... still lots of things to keep eye on.
@@roketynoramallorca2882funny
Don’t say fail in the same sentence as Boeing, or crash, fall, explode 😂
Is there an S&P 500 type fund that reduces or completely avoids exposure to the Mag 7?
Schd avoids the mag 7.
Nvdia is cisco 20 years later
Earnings growth is great but how you get there is just as important. Risk modeling should not ignore the amount of leverage [debt] it takes to sustain that revenue model. As we shift aware from a decade+ of easy money and normalize debt costs, there will be even more companies struggling to meet debt obligations, let alone have any margin left.
We also have principal of valuation…his name is professor Sanjay Bakshi❤
Not sure the tech bubble and the 7 big tech is a comparison one can make.Tech bubble was about IPOs. Reality is these are profitable businesses and people want to own them, which is driving up the prices. With a long term perspective, hard to believe all 7, or even 5 of them would be a bad investment. Short term, absolutely there will be bumps.I can't think of a better place to be holding savings long term than most these stocks, reality is that AI will absolutely be massive, bigger than the internet boom.
There's priced for perfection, priced for delusion & priced for Insanity
Timing is everything: I bought NVDA at$ 80-ish (may 2020 or somewhere in there) and now it is around $900. So I am a believer of luck and timing.
NVidia is expected to grow by just by 12% / yr. It is priced to lead the next tech wave, which is AI. Just like all the others have led previous waves (micro-computing, internet, mobile, social networking, cloud). The doesn't mean ofc it's not overpriced.
15% discount rate. This is massive. And this crushes the vals.
Is so freaking funny to see how inspire so called value investors struggling to get the correct call of the market. Been calling the market a bubble since 2022 and yet the market is breaking all time high. One sentence my gift to value investors, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Value investors can continue to bleed more in 2024 like they did in 2022 and 2023. Good night!
So because there is so much wealth concentrated in 7 overvalued companies, does that mean if there is q correction, a market crash will result?
I think it's important to stick to stocks that are immune to economic policies. I'm looking at NVIDIA and other AI stocks that have the potential to power and transform future technologies. It seems AI is the trajectory most companies are taking, including even established FAANG companies. Maybe there are other recommendations?
Thanks for putting this video together. What's your thought on AMD, INTC and MU?
Why use only 12% FCF growth for NVDA? It will be ofc very overvalued with this DCF model. The 10 year CAGR is a lot more than 12% I think if going back into historic performance. Plus, we are not factoring at all the future opportunities that it “may” capture. Love to hear the rationale behind 12%.
Everything other than the mag 7 should be a great buy right now
*Excellent! I really do have a question. For someone with less than $1,000 or above to trade, How would you recommend we enter into trading as a newbie? I am looking at trading with professional trader and copying their strategies rather than trading myself to avoid losing money emotionally. I would greatly appreciate any suggestions.*
During the past 13 years, the highest PE Ratio of Tesla was 1396.86. The lowest was 31.23. And the median was 113.71.
That’s the Elon Musk premium
We're not Investors. We are Traders. We want incredible gains, but at the very least, a descent day's wages from getting in and out. So we run like lemmings over to whichever stock is gaining new highs; then we out compete one another until we can't and the bears move in to eat whichever of us bull traders who failed to exit with a gain.
8:45 in... hmmm... I'm guessing the world wide web?
😂love it😅
Thank you!
Just cuz u think it’s too high doesn’t mean it is check the P/E ratio smart one
Wow you're approaching 1M subscribers, congratulations!!
Everyone knows this. What's the saying? - The Mkt can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The trick is can you guess the top of this bubble?
How were stocks priced before the 29 crash or the internet 2001 crash
higher
Nice
I bought NVDA back at $380 when it was "overpriced" and made over 100% return.
Thank you for your input! Compound interest and long-term investing are indeed powerful tools for building wealth. Investing in the S&P 500 index is a popular choice due to its diversification across a wide range of large-cap U.S. stocks, which can help manage risk while providing exposure to the overall performance of the U.S. stock market.
@@KianShah146 It's clear that you've been inspired by the success of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, and their remarkable achievements with Berkshire Hathaway. Transitioning from real estate to the stock market is a significant decision, and it's understandable that you want to proceed cautiously to avoid potential losses.
@@AidanShepherd78 One of my goals is to employ the service of one next year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
But Brandon, this time it's different! 😃
I think one evaluation that is left out is the acquisition of other companies by a stock like invidia that can buy anything.
I would think that mgmt would have had its hands full, just at the moment…
Fun stuff all the people that are “safely” passive investing in the sp500 they are basically putting money in the magnificent seven, is it a self-feeding bubble?
That can be contributing. Passive investing reduces market efficiency and feeds a little bit into positive feedback loops that may exist. It's up to active investors to take advantage of the inefficiencies and course correct.
If you don't want to put money on the magnificent seven, you can turn to the value oriented ETFs instead like VOOV
Worth noting though, VOO is only like 30% into the magnificent 7, VTI is even less than that, and didn't this video point out that 2 of the 7 aren't even overvalued?
Nvidia AI hardware and software potential could give it very big growth. However it could also not. Really they are assuming nvidia will power all AI in near future, which is unlikely but possibly it will claim a huge chunk of that market.
Damodaran "The GOAT of valuation"
True that!
They can’t believe it but they’re not selling off. Josh says I sold 20% 😂❤
Aswath is the real deal.
Not by history, the PE of today’s flyers NVDA and such are nowhere near those of the 2008 bust. Nowhere near it.
I think Adobe dropping by end of last week due to investors being disappointed by the gen AI boost is a harbinger for AI related stock in general.
maybe use a forward PE next time.