Australia's Housing Crisis: What I Learnt From 100+ Hours of Research
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- čas přidán 24. 05. 2024
- 🔗Is it time to give up on the Australian dream of homeownership?
Buying a home has become unattainable for many everyday Australians, but how did we get here?
In this video, we’ll be taking a deep dive into the 8 key reasons behind Australia’s housing affordability crisis, backed by 100+ hours extensive research, evidence and data.
To paint the full picture, we’ll be covering all aspects of the housing crisis, from government policies, immigration and interest rate fluctuations, to lifestyle choices, land shortages and construction costs.
In the second part of this video series, we’ll assess the impact of the housing crisis on your household and what you can do about it, so make sure to subscribe so you don’t miss out!
Chapters:
00:00 - Changes in Australian Homeownership Statistics
01:38 - The 8-Part Demand & Supply Framework
02:55 - Reason 1: Low Interest Rates
05:50 - Reason 2: Shortage of Well-Located Land
06:54 - Reason 3: Lifestyle Choices
09:05 - Reason 4: Planning Restrictions
11:05 - Reason 5: Immigration
13:43 - Reason 6: Taxes
14:48 - Reason 7: Construction Costs
16:29 - Reason 8: High Interest Rates
17:20 - 3 Reasons Why House Prices Are Not Lower
18:13 - Final Thoughts on Australia’s Housing Affordability Crisis
Please get in touch with us if you need more detailed advice. Find our contact details below 👇
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DISCLAIMER:
This video is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal or tax advice. This video does not take into consideration your personal circumstances. Consult with a qualified financial planner, tax advisor or legal consultant for tailored advice.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
When ‘Carol Vivian Constable’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I am an architect and I must say I agree with the bottlenecks for planning. If I am approached by a landowner wanting to put multiple dwellings on their land (eg. a set of small apartments) I immediately say: We can submit the Planning Approval next month for you, but it would take 1 - 2 years before you get approval, let alone build it. That's how long it takes. It takes about 2 - 3 months for it to even to be allocated to a local Planning Officer, 2 - 3 months for referring it to other departments in council, 1 - 2 months for advertising to residents for feedback, 6- 12 months of DRP / DRC meetings, then 1 - 3 months for "it's on my supervisors desk waiting for their signature". After all this time, the development becomes unfeasible and the project is scrapped, which is what happens to about 60 - 75% of developments. The remainder are only if the landowner really really pushes it and maintains enthusiasm over the years.
Where is our main deficiency in terms of skilled labourers or other professionals that is leading to such long delays? Do we need more carpenters, civil engineers, electricians or something else entirely?
I am sure you suspect the process is created by developers. They do not want competition and they are the biggest contributors to party election campaign funding.
@@s1Lence_au start with architects. I was an architect. Challenge the need for everything to be done by a skilled labour. As an former architect working as a labourer my skills are not recognised in related fields so I have gone/am going back to my family farm. This would cut out the profit of the education system. EG project management is what architects are trained as but I would have to start as a cadet as a project manager and get retrained.
Too much OHS BS. Again good for the training company but do I really need to refresh my tickets every two years?
Skill and experience is generally ignored. It's all about your "current", emphasis on the last 5 years, education not your ability as a person. Again great for the indirect taxation system that is training. Let's not even mention CPD.... What a waste of my intelligence.
As @hub5343 says planning and regulations. My last project as a project architect in Canberra in 2009 was DOMA groups Foothills. It only started construction a year or so ago and fallen victim to the rate rises. Thats taken almost 15 years to get going. it was is 4-600 apartments worth a billion ... I got better things to do with my life than oversee an endless number of reports that do little other than tick the compliance box and give stooges a right to derive an income. Indirect taxation again.
A former boss in Sydney was up to 60 000 in planning fees for his mixed use house on a block zoned for that use. The whole industry is a "washing machine" cash cow for all levels of govt., the education industry and many others. It is everything other than efficient. Until that is challenged good luck...
@cameronbridges6365 sigh... sounds very frustrating and so counter productive. And I thought the health sector was bad. No wonder many builders go under.
@@annea6288 czcams.com/video/zNCbx278URM/video.html
1:35 the sign is replaced (by the employee)
1:40 his pouch of rolly tobacco has changed sides (two logo's one shirt)
1:45 he snaps his burn phone.
1:50 back in business
Builders do go under but not for long. The phoenix rises from the ashes. It's the poor chumps he was building for when he "goes under" that take the hit...
Health all the rest just as bad in their own way....
My niece just left early childhood education. Daily progress reports for every kid or something like that. In Canberra apparently it's a thing. Many in the early childhood education leave that industry and become bureaucrats - less paperwork... lol This country is wrong
Housing should never have been allowed to become more then an essential service.. If you own more then 3 houses you are a business and should be treated as such but never will while the average politician owns so many houses.
Says the guy that owns 3 houses 😂
unfortunately no,,that figure allows you to still make some cash meaning not squashing the wrought completely @@Sammywstewart
Please raise the limit to 5 😂
I agree that politicians have their snouts in the trotters. Say what you will, but the simple fact remains, people need somewhere to rent. Stats released by the ABC recently showed properties that investors who are selling, are often bought by other investors. We have a unit as investment, but it was to house our son who has disabilities. 8 years later hes still there and he will be thhere for a long time yet to come. But why would it matter if we bought (not owned - as there would be a mortgage on all of them anyway) another 3 oor 5, if we had the equity to do so. It doesnt matter who owns it. All that matters is thats its available for rent. Home owning is nice, but there will always be, and going forward, continue to be more and more people who will only be able to afford to rent, as the more low wage migrants we bring in, the more low cost rentals will be needed. No one is building cheap 2 bed units anymore, yet that is what the overwhelming demand for is.
People turned to property investment as a wealth creation strategy when the government warned Australians that they were under-invested for retirement.
It's interesting that the reason why I cannot afford a house is my choice of renting a small 2 bedroom unit. Well done Australian goverment, well done.
Boating camping fishing stock has risen 29% this year, perhaps the run on tents is the next housing boom :(
Guys I totally agree with you same situation here in Perth WA
Right … you know it’s the people that vote in the government … look at what happened in 2019 when Labor said that they scrap negative gearing … also nimbys … so governments aren’t entirely to blame here
Too many hair cuts 😅
Well if the greed grubs with 20 investment properties didn't revolt every time the government tries to change negative gearing laws we might make some progress. It isn't the governments fault it's real estate agents and people like this presenter who are making it hard to buy. I bet this maggot has a few houses in his portfolio. SF Capital is probably a front for laundering money from Asian triads.
It's also in the Governments best interest to keep prices high as they reap the benefits of taxes on the sale/purchase of a house. This is also the reason why they release limit land
Developers do it themselves, it’s called land banking
Until it ends up like Canada and all the locals leave.
wrong government crooks , building costs 30% more under labor @@joek292
Its mostly because home owners feel good when prices go up... Including politicians homes and investments. And so no politicians will make the moves to lower the prices and anger home owners who have high price loans to pay off
Just thank your government whom allowed $401.6 billion foreign investment in Real Estate market for 2020 2021 2022 while the citizens was locked up in their homes and couldn’t cross state borders even so very few local citizens bought new homes . This amount of money was enough to overheat the market
I returned to Australia in 2022 after 13 yrs away, and I'm shocked at the cost of living here now, especially what's happened to the cost of housing. I'm lucky enough to own land but would never be able to afford to build on it if I had to rent a place while trying to save. As a single person with no kids and a love of travel, I've chosen to travel Australia in a van, working, saving, and enjoying life. This country has gone mad in many ways. I feel sorry for the people trying to keep up with it all.
where had you been and how was the inflation there
Yet idiots vote socalist in power
were you at Thailand?
Hey, I am curious. Where in Australia is the housing crisis and the cost of living is rising? Is it all over Australia?
@@juniormansonge- Yes all around Australia! Rent and food is almost dbled in price for no reason but greed and corruption!
Agree, the government been saying decentralise for many years, but nothing was done. We need more regional centres. Stop focus on capital cities.
In Queensland the median prices for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast became higher than Brisbane. Canberra is a type of regional centre but it's also so expensive. Maybe there should be a planned new city with extremely cheap high density real estate based upon mass bicycle commuting, as opposed to urban sprawl that keeps on sprawling and creating horrendous traffic that is unsustainable.
Decentralisation is never going to happen. The only method is the creation of new States, which require capitals. The outstanding example is Canberra. It’s utterly ridiculous that WA and QLD cling to regions in their north that could easily secede.
If you want to help housing in this country.
Scrap negative gearing.
Scrap short stay accommodation.
Scrap foreign property ownership.
Stop importing so many people.
Those are good ideas but people just don’t vote for them … look what happened to labor in 2019 when they promised to remove negative gearing … thats why governments don’t run these policies because they aren’t popular … people just don’t what to sacrifice
Its only lack of land release, regulations, and immigration.
Nothing more.
At this point we'd have more luck banning private residential property landlords entirely.
Last point is the most important...2 million people in 3 years is another Brisbane.
Yeah and suffer else where in the economy.
To all the first home buyers I am sympathetic to your cause.
The problem started many years ago when someone thought of the idea of B&B accommodation. There are tons of houses being used for just that. These homes have been taken away from long term and converted to short term accommodation literally taking any chance of buying (first home owner)or renting long term.
It all boils down to investors greed and fear of having to pay their fair share of taxes because they can’t write off expenses against their huge incomes.
If only one home was enough.
Yeah but you own your own house and the problem is too many people who own their own houses are not standing up to the government and protesting the demand based policies of the past 50 years.
You should make a comparison video between the Canadian and the Australian housing crisis. Both sound very similar. great video.
Given how well this video touches on so many topics and reasons for the housing crisis, I'm actually surprised that it never made any mention of land banking and excessive short-term holiday rentals, even if only to clear the air and get to the reality of how much impact they're having.
It's worthwhile raising it for sure but I wanted to also ensure that we didn't have to unpack something that would ultimately lead to a documentary. Although it looks like some people seem to enjoy the depth!
Yes the effect of AirBnB does need to be considered with respect to the rental market.
Also foreign/offshore property purchases in whatever capacity that they contribute, didn't get a mention.
1,000,000 empty homes on census night doesn't help.
@@user-cb5tl5fu3w and neither does an endless supply of migrants waiting to buy you home or keep your kids homeless.
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
"Real Estate Investment " - organised crime - what's the difference? Money is NOT a resource - when will that sink in?
Great job. You explained a very complicated issue very clearly and simply. Another issue is the structure of the typical 30-year mortgage combined with lifestyle choices - you effectively buy one property for yourself and another for the bank through the amount of interest paid (which is an often overlooked factor).
Looking forward to Part 2, well researched and easy to follow.
Thank you!
Very comprehensive, thank you!🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼 Look forward to the next one!
Don't forget that the bricklayers want a decent livable wage for the work they do as well. If they don't get work, they don't get paid either. I can't say anything for other trades, but bricklayers never had superannuation either until the 90s. Most of my family are bricklayers and all build or built very good quality homes, but it's hard on the body, and your physical health is basically done by 40-50. Whereas other people in that age range are better physically. I know the issue is more complex, but getting the tradies is part of it. Also, due to societies shift in favour of more soft work+wanting a decent wage for work, there is a lack of tradesmen and practical workers in general. Just an observation.
My cabinetmaker & electrician relatives say the exact same thing. Bodies destroyed by 50 - wages need to reflect that. Not enough young ppl going into trades, and there are too many quitting before they really get going. Disaster coming down the pipeline, as the govt rams more and more ppl into our borders.
Cost of materials is also hurting wages for our needed laborers and trades.
Throw in cost of travel and there isn't much room left for the companies to pay them enough.
With more immigration those wages are certainly not going to get better as companies will begin to hire eager immigrants desperate for work.
At first the government should limit ownership to maximum 2 properties because there are always people who need to rent for various reasons. All owners of more than 2 properties should be forced to sale the rest of the properties and repay collected government Rent Assistance over the years. At this stage owners of multiple properties are the largests recipients of Centrelink's Rent Assistance.
Government interference in the free market is the problem. More government intervention more problems, less affordable houses. You are looking to the wrong place for solutions,
People may see this as communism. I see this as making capitalism fair & competitive without the balance tipping.
As above, more interference more problems. Show me where what you suggest has worked? @@tristanbackup2536
The problem is thats communism. Telling people what they can and can't buy with their money.
Just tax (without N/gearing) any houses people sell after the initial 2 homes.
The most well-researched video about this topic by far! Can't wait for part 2!
Thanks for watching!
wow, so refreshing to be able to see it all laid out clearly. definitely a stressful time. thanks for the insights!
Stay tuned for the next one. We're in this together.
In-depth and seamlessly structured video! kudos to the team! 👏💯
Its quite simple. The housing market in Australia is not a free market. A free market would see natural prices derived from supply and demand. But in Australia, you have an incredible amount of government intervention in the way of incentives, be they tax or buyer. And tax after tax.
People who are on welfare get rent assistance. Landlords who own the houses get tax incentives. People who just pay their taxes are getting slammed. People who wiggle out of paying their taxes, are raking it in.
Australia has one one of the most unpopulated land masses in the world, and granted large areas are difficult to develop, Australia still has a massive amount of viable land for housing available, so space is not an issue.
Simply calculate the average build cost and land cost, then refer historically, even over a very short time span like 5 years. You can quickly see we as Australians, as a population are being taken for a ride. Analise the same figures over a longer time period it only becomes more apparent.
My 2 cents:
-Your primary home ( with strict conditions) should be non taxable or council rated.
- Remove negative gearing tax incentives for property. Encourage positive gearing of rental properties.
- Foreign investment for property in Australia should be appropriately taxed, or prohibited in some way.
- Flat tax: Everybody contributes. Whether it be 10%,20%. But if you earn a dollar everyone has to give back to pay for the "socialist" costs, like healthcare (lol what a joke atm), roads (lol what a joke atm) Fire, Ambulance Police (lol what a joke atm)
A healthy and wealthy society would see the fully employed able to afford the most simple and cheapest housing. But what we are seeing here in Oz is the fully employed and impoverished.
Sort your shit out Australia!
You're right, but saying it isnt enough. Homeowners will always prioritise voting in their interests. Unless there is some radical political change its all talk
Fully employed and impoverished. I couldn't have said it better myself. Still your forgetting a few important points. They want it that way and they want you in debt.
It’s getting out of hand, they need to come down hard on this foreign speculators
Canadian pension funds In 2022, CDPQ's real estate division, Ivanhoe Cambridge, opened an office in Sydney and currently has about C$2 billion in real estate investments in the country, with projections to have about C$3.5 billion in the next three to four years.
Thank you. This is the only well covered explanation of the Australian housing crisis. The Government is ignoring the issue by redirecting public focus to "low impact" government incentive projects while the Australian home owners and want-to-be home owners are oblivious to the underlining core challenges that will affect the every day Aussie and their children's future of home ownership. Thanks again, you did a better expose' than on this main stream media channels. 🥰
These sorts of vids make the msm media seem like the dinosaur that it is.
Some points.
You can't compare where we live to the US because not sure if you've noticed we have a giant f'ing desert or desert like land that makes most of the continent. We're not North America.
Failure to match the Feds 'big oz' wet dream with huge investment in regional cities outside of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane is a joke. Mass immigration is not a positive with infrastructure.
Rates below 3%, which was the old emergency level, do nothing but produce asset bubbles and inflation. I blame reserves around the world for this, not just Lowe.
This is not a crisis, it is a catastrophe. I know disabled people that have been basically thrown on the street, after rents were jacked up beyond their meager means and rented to international students. We have also locked out a substantial part of the next generation from the security of owning their home, unless they picked the right parents.
The basic government incompetence and the raw greed see I now see is not an Australia that I remotely recognise.
North American has low taxes why homes cheaper . Home ownership in usa 70% in Australia 58% do you see a problem
Missed a key demand factor, Government handouts starting with GST 1st home owners, then baby bonus ( equaling nearly 3 months maternity leave ) and all the other hand outs to families which all helps indirectly in paying a higher mortgage and rent. Go thru history of all hand outs and see how they match housing spikes. To me it looks created on purpose to benefit the you know whos who created it in the late 1990s.
Right, the Centerlink recipients are driving up your local property market and not, let's say, the boomers who benefited the most from a decade of QEs pumped into the economy to save their investments after 2008? Oh wait, let's not forget those dirty dirty IMMIGRANTS!
You must be one of those rare 'the liberal party is the better economic manager' type still grazing in the wilderness.
Maybe you could do some calculations. If you pooled up all these handouts, would it reach a 20% deposit?
Do you think that negative gearing on investment properties might also be contributing to high house prices? Negative gearing is essentially a government hand out.
@@pholliez And the Howard era doubling of the CGT discount, it made housing too good to be true.
Important to consider that negative gearing was also intended as a vehicle to increase the supply of residential property through incentivising private investment. The government isn’t spending on social housing (which would never have made up for the deficit in supply.
Thanks for a great run down on the housing crisis in Australia. All these factors could apply to New Zealand as well where housing prices are out of control too especially in Auckland. As someone who has visited Sydney every year for the last 25 years I can tell you that I believe that your immigration levels have contributed the most to housing unaffordabilty. I was at Chatswood where 47% of the population is new migrants. It looked to be the same in the Sydney cbd. You cannot have uncontrolled immigration and expect the housing supply to keep up with demand. All too easy to just turn on the immigration tap to pump up the economy. Short term gain, long term pain.
The availability of cheap (printed) money also caused the inflation of house prices.
Money laundering from China did it.
Very well researched and structured video! Thank you
Glad you enjoyed it!
Was a great watch! Will watch out for part 2
Housing crisis triggers a market crash or a financial crisis, it could send shockwaves through the stock markets worldwide. I’m worried about my investment of over $600K stocks. Is this a time to consider diversifying my portfolios?
If the housing market takes a hit, it might lead to reduced consumer spending and overall economic instability. I advice you consult with a professional about your investment portfolio to enable you to take advantage of the downturns.
The housing market has always had its ups and downs, but it's true that this time feels different. Having a portfolio manager will save you a lot in the market. My coach has helped me expand my portfolio by 200% over the past few months.
this is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?
“Tenley Megan Amerson” is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
I don’t understand why people don’t talk about the quality of new apartments being built?
Imagine replacing 20 good free standing homes or 40 duplexes for 300 apartments. Every apartment being 1 or 2 bedrooms. Few 3 bedrooms.
These 20 to 40 homes that once housed families have forced families further away or to pay even more in the same area for what’s remaining. The new apartments are only suitable for singles, couples and few families with a newborn.
These apartments have high strata fees making them less affordable. Also no consumer protections for dodgy buildings.
We aren’t seeing more 4 or 5 bedroom apartments suitable for families. Note many people need a study area too for work.
But it’s ignored. Keep ignoring the obvious and nothing will change.
@@daviddou1408 I know many people including myself who grew up in 2 or 3 bedroom homes, but these homes had a separate dining room, a formal lounge room and a family room. These 2 bedroom apartments are tiny in comparison.
These days people also need work areas.
I believe the housing market is overpriced due to high demand, bidding wars, and challenges in land availability. The trend of wealthy individuals and foreign buyers paying excessively makes it tough for average people to purchase homes, potentially leading to a collapse. Housing will be taking a big hit and prices will drop
Wealthy individuals and foreign buyers don’t cause the collapse. It’s is likely to be mortgage stress causing foreclosures, a recession or property developers going bust like what is happening in China. The wealthy people are the ones keeping the market propped up, we would have crashed long ago if it weren’t for them.
well, no one force sellers to be greedy to want to sell their house at record high price correct? And no one stop locals who are working far too less to earn more money and save to buy this high price houses rite? Its their laziness working attitude that resulted them to not being able to command higher salary rite? If you own a house in Sydney cbd area and u want to sell it, would you be kind enough to sell it for $500,000 to a first time young couple that you have pity on? or you want to sell for 1.5million dollars to a foreigner buyer with CASH on hand? So what do u say here? All these people who are grumbling and making noise about housing crisis blar blar blar are simply losers or failures who are dragging Australia economy back for the past decades, where they lived comfortably with little effort in self upgrading their knowledge and work performance to command a high salary scale to secure a better future! They just simply leave such burden to the system or government to provide cushion for them to hedge against any storm or wind! But now, reality had set in due to huge storms hitting worldwide and all countries are suffering same housing crisis, high inflation and recession to come! But luckily, Australia is not facing recession economy due to massive investment brought in by foreigners or migrants that locals hated here to fend off this big economy recession storm that is growing worldwide! And this move of killing or indirectly telling off all international students, foreigners or new migrants you are not welcome here to Australia last week is a very very stupid and bad move! Especially targeting international students would meant targeting their KIDS that is more important to any foreigners own lives here! And i cant possible think if you were the parents and you found your son is being targeted and not welcome as an international student here in Australia anymore, i guess i will just have to find another better country like Singapore or Malaysia that will give better education and future for my child, which means i will withdraw most of my investments here and leave in 1 year time! And surprisingly, Malaysia had just announce their new migration plan to allow any foreigners that investment 5 million Malaysia ringgit would be eligible to apply for their Permanent Residency and can buy any property above 1.5 million anywhere in Malaysia. So i guess Australia will soon to join in the world recession very soon in 1 year time i guess? 😂😂😂
it cost 30% more to build homes blame socialist labor
Hi Bianca, its 4th class economics - the demand out strips supply. Everyone wants to live in Sydney. (maybe Melb). The average person, as you say, like me perhaps when I was 30, I had to move to melbourne to buy my first house for $167,500. Today, I assume, the average person may have to move to a regional town - buy, renovate, double their money in 3 years then move back to the city. There's always land - which means there's always opportunity.
stick to OF
Great info on the current state of housing. Thanks SF Capital!
Our pleasure!
It is a great video with very detailed research, one thing you did not point out is that the established middle class generally avoid strata living at all cost, because of the forever increasing strata fees, sinking fund and fire upgrades, they also worried about their own home will become an Opal or Mascot tower. Besides you want to be proud of your own home in front of friends, houses can provide ample parking, the ability to wash/maintain your car, you can place a small boat or jet skis, have a spa, have a trampoline, have a pool for your children and even charge your own EV at home. These will never happen for strata living. Some will claim a phobia of lawn mowing, but some houses can be made to be easier to maintain.
i live under strata. it has a garage where i could charge an EV no problem, can wash maintain a car and have ample parking. so sorry your wrong on that front
wrong just for your situation I am afraid@@mechanicalman4531
If your buying a house to impress friends, your in trouble already lol
@@mechanicalman4531Many families have two cars, and this mobility opens up more employment opportunities. In a lot of new city developments where I live, regulations limit parking to a point where two parks arent feasible. Plus many new developments that Im aware of arent really pitched at families. At least not those that want greenery, playgrounds, etc... i get why people wouldnt choose it if they didnt need to.
Nice observation.
Everyone wants their own Castle. It's the Vibe 😆.
Mate well done on not only a well put together presentation but doing probably an immense amount of research to identify these key drivers
Thanks so much for watching!
Well done, informative and thoroughly researched. The best content on our housing crisis I’ve seen so far, a must watch for everyone!
The govt needs to look at some scheme like what singapore does for housing with HDB apartments. There is no way construction at the pace it is running at now will be enough for the nearly 500k migrants. So prices will continue to increase as long as supply doesnt meet demand. The govt needs to lead.
Haha
The "government leading" in Singapore is "We're doing this and we don't care if you don't like". Be careful what you wish for.
Oh and how do I know this? I lived in Singapore for 5 years.
20% home ownership singapore sucks like china & hong kong why milions move to australia
singapore borderline communism you listen to left media to much
@steveremington I've also lived in Singapore as my folks are from there originally. If you are happy with rules based silent dictatorship then no probs. At least they got houses to live in and not a swag under the light rail at pyrmont.
People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
Buy now, home prices will not go lower. If rates drop, you can refinance.
The government will have no choice but to print more notes and lower interest rates.
Well i think, home prices will need to fall by at least 40% before the market normalizes. If you do not know whether to buy a house or not, it is best you seek guidance from a well-experienced advisor for proper portfolio allocation. So far, that’s how I’ve stayed afloat over 5 years now, amassing nearly $1m in return on investments.
@@hasede-lg9hj Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?
The advisor that guides me is Vivian Carol Gioia, most likely the internet is where to find her basic info, just search her name. She's established.
The one thing not mentioned here is the relaxing of restriction for overseas purchases of Australian property. This alone caused pricing pressure where many dwellings sold at very elevated prices thus forcing the value of other properties to rise. All the other points are valid.
High taxes is why homes cost more to build. Government parasite
It's the main reason.
Sold out by your Government.
Thank you for insightful analysis of this matter
Crisis caused by inexperienced, greedy, unsupervised real estate agents, fattening their commissions, happening for years.
Agents are only an intermediary - they have no influence on market forces. Their success is dependent on the state of the housing market, not the other way around.
@@bd-uc3hb But they do play a role in stopping sales at lower prices. Valuation is based on recent sales data. Sellers get agents promising big prices and then agents push buyer's to spend as much as possible, which continually keeps inflating prices, especially when interest rates are low...
Realestate agents are only doing what's right for the owners
The Town planning / DA approval process for new builds is just way too slow - Over 12 months to approve 3 low-density townhouses in suburban Melbourne. They give too much power to objecting NIMBY neighbors regardless of the developments achieving full compliance with zoning codes.. Such applications are always going to VCAT just because over 8 of these idiots decide to object to a completely compliant and reasonable application costing the developer and consultants thousands in losses. It's no wonder everybody is bailing out of the Victorian property development market these days.
We need more cities, not more growth in the ones that we already have. Building approvals shouldn't even be granted in Melbourne and Sydney, anymore. There isn't the infrastructure to support further growth. And good luck in the next drought. We've somehow forgotten about those.
At the end of the day, it comes down to the Australian people choosing to see a house as an investment or asset rather than a home or a place to live. As long as people salivate at the thought of properties as "investments", house pricing will forever go up and will remain attainable only to the rich. Remember, the government (no matter which side) is full of landlords and property developers (or connections with said property developers).
If it wasn't for "investors" we would hardly have any Rental properties at all! Remember when the State Government sold off thousands of Public Housing homes to private investors?
@Peekaboo-Kitty that was the idea initially by the government, but in reality there are next to no affordable rentals right now and in the foreseeable future. And rentals suck but that's what about half of Australians have to deal with.
It is what it is, I suppose. Have a good Christmas and happy New Year
Yep good point but remember - stamp duty going in, Land Tax at the end of each year and then CGT when you sell. In other words, the government gets its fair pound of flesh in the process.In Holland they take 40% in death duty. I think that would take the shine off property here.
@Gezza2515 Absolutely, you're right. We must not forget the "silent partner" that takes a cut wherever and whenever a gain is made.
There is no CGT on primary residence @@Gezza2515
This was so interesting to watch. So many factors to think about
Thanks for watching!
Thank you for the deep dive. Would you also consider discussing other factors going back to the late 90's and early 2000's? Namely a) the loosening of bank lending requirements. b) the rise of dual income households? These 2 were discussed a long time ago but remain relevant.
Good points
Plus mass uncontrolled immigration
Is it coincident？the UK, Canada and Australia all increase their immigration intake dramatically post covid😅, and all these three countries are facing housing crises.
It doesn’t work that way. Maybe rethink your assumptions. It sounds more like an argument manufactured to blame new arrivals. Why not look at the impact of investors pushing for profit. If they had a better understanding of community they might stop treating the communities- created by others- as a source of profit only.
100% if we need more housing but birth rates in the lower 30 years but there's more people. Immigration should be stopped until housing crisis is fixed
It's not a coincidence, yet it's an economic necessity. It's the consequence of locking down during covid and starving the economy. Now we have debts to pay and these (in most cases temporary) immigrants are stopping our countries from entering a deep and painful recession
There was a housing shortage before Covid, the government just thought it was a good idea to make it worse by signing immigration pacts to guarantee it's here to stay
This is a deliberately planned Crisis to reduce all Nations to 3rd World Nations.
You have missed the big one. Debt issuance. Banks are willing to lend a far larger mortgage as multiple of income than they would allow 40 years ago. If banks decided to lend only 3 times income as before, instead of over 7 times as now, then goodbye house overprice crisis.
That was a great analysis. I'm impressed you only have 5k subscribers. That is definitely to change with such high quality content. Well done!
This is one of the best explination I have seen.. Great video. Makes total sence. Its very clear there is more to it than just one aspect.
The birth of our housing crisis occured during the Howard government. Until then the policy was that 1 in 3 houses needed to be publicly owned. His government took $3 billion away from the public housing budget which was never replaced. This forced those needing public housing into private rental market. Private rental market seeing increased demand put prices up, and subsequently price of houses went up.
he opened the gates to the 457 visas@@francoisbierman68
This was a great video, really well done. However i really do feel the disucssion around immigration should of been more detailed. It is easy to point out the effects upon the rental market, but some discussion regarding the level of correlation to home prices should of been the logical extension of that. Whether that effect is large or small matters.
Definitely lots to unpack. It looks like this serves more as a primer for many more potential future videos rather than it being 100% comprehensive.
Thank you for this. I'm glad you state "after 100+ hours of research" in your title. There's so much misinformation and false flags surrounding this issue. If we really want to solve it (and we really _need_ to) we must understand it and we also need to take the emotion out of it. Opinions abound but without facts and hard data then they only serve as a distraction to the real task at hand. Well done doing the work we all need to be doing.
Thanks for watching! Appreciate the support
Good analysis. As you've eloquently described, there are several factors that have/are affecting housing affordability in Australia, and it's not as simple as changing tax rules or removing negative gearing as the media would like to have you believe.
There is another major factor on the supply side of the equation. Successive governments at all levels (local, state, and federal) have neglected maintaining or increasing the supply of low-cost and social housing over many decades -- in fact, many have reduced social housing and sold the corresponding land to developers. Without this more affordable alternative and additional supply, it also creates additional pressure on rental supply. Governments should also be doing the opposite to what they've done in recent years, and that is to increase incentives for small-scale private investments rather than continue to constrain and constrict, therefore allowing an increase in rental stock. This would actually include tax incentives and ensuring that private investors are no worse off than owner-occupiers with lending.
It's a difficult balance, but we've seen the effects of our flawed housing environment. COVID just exacerbated it and highlighted the problems even further.
There is "Demand" and then there is something called "Artificial Demand" or "Speculation". The huge issue we have creating speculation is negative gearing and dirty money in Australian real estate. Australia has one of the most lax anti money laundering laws in the developed world. Did you intentionally overlook these important factors?
Housing should be a basic human right and not to be used for speculation. You cannot treat housing like a commodity and it should not be used to get tax breaks.
@@daviddou1408 Australia should not allow the transfer of income streams. In general, taxpayers can only deduct expenses of renting property from their rental income, as renting property out is usually considered a passive activity.
Neg gearing is useless.and contributes essentially nothing to the issue.
@@daviddou1408 yeh and people who are in the red on their properties cant buy 5 and are subsidising the cost of the property with their own income.
@@daviddou1408 im just saying that common perception about N.G. is wrong. You need to be more than covering your mortgage with rent if you hope to buy more than a couple of investments. N.G. properties limit the amount a peraon can buy and by the very nature the owner is paying for part of the mortgage that the renter would otherwise be paying if they were the owner.
When you pay more rent than the mortgage plus outgoings, thats when youre getting screwed, thats when the owner can afford to buy a bunch more like it.
A well-rounded and in-depth explanation for the current housing situation. Lots of learnings from this video - thanks so much for taking the time to break it down so clearly for us to understand!
Our pleasure!
Great conversation that we will need to have more of. Cheers for the work to put this together in a simple coherent presentation.
Thank you for watching!
Clearly explained without all the jargon and easy to follow. You summarised this topic amazingly well in 20 minutes that most would take at least an hour to explain. You have earned a new subscriber. Please also do a video on inflation and how this isn't a bad thing if controlled well with good monetary policy.
Blame the developers for building shitty apartments these days. Who wants to buy a ticking timebomb.
Yes I am coming back to Australia soon can not for a house but as a single woman in her 60s can buy an apartment or maybe a unit if it is in the outer city but do not want to buy the quality that is around! I will never never never buy new ATM when I see how they are built . Will look for something older that has been done up.
How about only Australian cirtizen or resident can buy house and limit on person one house only. Surely this will have effect ? what do you think ?
It should be Australia citizen pay less land tax than permanent resident and oversea investors.
That would be perfect. It should lower the prices. At first the government should limit ownership to maximum 2 houses because there are always people who need to rent for various reasons. All owners of more than 2 properties should be forced to sale the rest of the properties and repay collected government Rent Assistance over the years. At this stage owners of multiple properties are the largests recipients of Centrelink' Rent Assistance.
it wouldnt because it cost 30% more to build a home under labor @@lolplays8093
At the moment, that is already the case. Foreign ownership represents 0.75% of property sales and is restricted to new properties only, encourage construction. They also pay higher taxes and fees on those properties and their income is taxed at the full foreign rate of 32.5%
A good presentation, a soft landing maybe the only way out of this mess.
Finding a way to keep house prices stagnant for an extended period period to allow wages to catch up would probably do the trick.
Very comprehensive and well researched!
At the moment most countries in the world have housing crisis. The reason is simple and is no mystery. It is supply and demand. The thing that makes it confusing is that there are huge supplies but the demand never decreases. The reason for it is that there are too many investors with unlimited money trying to buy these homes. That's why despite huge supplies and many empty homes, the demand is stronger than ever. The issue is investors. We have limited land and homes but many many investors with unlimited greed and unlimited access to money, both cash and loan from banks.
yes it is ,if investors buy a one million house they pay 150000 tax and firb fee to government, if they rent out they need pay 31%to government, if house unoccupied pay 5000 each year,so it is huge income from them.make government rich,then the government use this income help local poor people,help local no working people. this is what they doing ,this is why
Australia has limited land? Commentary with limited braincells.
Without investors you wouldn't have any rentals! Property values wouldn't be so high if Councils were willing to make concessions and allow development by subdividing plots into 300 m2 lots, we would have more housing for buyers.
I have been living in Mumbai for the past few years and I can state that flats and apartments in Mumbai are much more than Sydney!
High density living is the way forward!
@@kamaldaruwalla6172 Government can provide housing and rentals. Build houses using subcontractors.
@@kamaldaruwalla6172the problem is greedy investors with multiple properties which have exploded in number since Howard turned property ownership into a form of gambling.
When the market crashes I will laugh my arse off as these greedy people are forced to the wall.
Have millions to hide? Buy some apartments and just leave the doors locked. Still making profit without tenants.
Made in CHINA.!
So informative … thanks
You're welcome! Thanks for watching!
Couple of extra reasons not mentioned.
1. Today's average house is twice as big as it was 30 years ago. Buyers expections and costs have doubled.
2. Those making the rules affecting property prices are heavily invested in property and don't appreciate high prices as being an issue or claim any conflict of interest on things like immigration, infrastructure investment, building incentives
Both of these points missed. Also foreign ownership and short term stay/air bnb.
on the financial policy side you mentioned interest rates, but In your studying, did you find the effects of quantitative easing in boosting asset prices and bank reserves? what about defect spending of governments, pumping money into the economy? I for one more than doubled my house down payment through the effects of these on stock prices and the banks seem to keep on assessing property values higher, allowing ppl to borrow more. it seems any central bank liquidity seems to pump straight into equities. also they money multiplier effect shows that increase in bank lending multiplies the money supply. all things that werent mentioned....
the US has been exporting inflation to the rest of the world and increased the interest rate to attract capital and their over printed US dollar back to the US shore. Do you know that the US mortgage holders are shielded from the interest rate hikes because their home loan is fixed rate for 30 years by law.😂 The rest of the world is fked though.
Well researched presentation however I think you missed the major contributor and elephant in the room. Immigration of high net worth families and foreign investment!! These people buy their properties for for cash. How can the average Australian compete?
It is true that many foreigners pay cash to buy the properties here. However, most of these foreigners are high-end buyers - meaning that their purchases are multi-million dollar properties and not the 'cheap' homes that the average Australian are competing to buy...
And they aren't permitted to purchase existing homes, only new ones, which encourages (one might argue, subsidises) new home construction
10:36 Another opinion from this, the reasons most homeowners oppose unit construction in built up suburban area is that the roads are no where near wide enough in some areas. Once you add a block of lets say 6 units you've potentially got between 6 - 12 cars that now need spaces. Assuming the developer adds 1 car park per unit, that's still 6 extra cars that now need street parking on an already tight street. I think units are a great way to get people into the market but roads need to be wider with at least 1 lane each way + curb side parking on both sides available, otherwise we're just going to have more people opposing unit construction.
Great video. Some further considerations...
Societal changes such as number of persons per residence has been decreasing over time - some driven by higher divorce/separation rates, some by smaller families and lower birth rates, and also during the pandemic the move away from share houses. All demand side drivers. On the supply side, the move to much larger homes than in the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s has led to increased construction costs.
Mortgage serviceability changes - mortgages were commonly 20 year max, then 25, now 30 - for the same monthly repayment you have more capital available, same for dual income families greater income means more capital can be borrowed, also banks used to insist on min 20% deposit and savings record. All of these factors have been demand side drivers that have pushed prices higher over the decades.
Negative gearing is having a HUGE impact, there's no way the impact is only 2%. Your average landlord in Australia doesn't even break-even on the rent on a second property, the majority return a negative yield (especially in Sydney). If you had a room full of property owners, who had more than 1 property, and you told them negative gearing was going away, you can bet a huge number of them would bail out of that before you could blink.
Completely agree. Whoever came up with a 2% needs to put the crack pipe down. If negative gearing was ended (including for existing properties) it would spell almost certain disaster for the rental market with a massive reduction in properties available as I would assume a very decent percentage of rentals would need to be sold as the landlords would not be able to continue funding the property without the help of people like me (who pay a massive amount of tax and get no tax breaks).
@@jezg084 Get out with this bullsh**! I am sick of hearing this nonsense. What happens if landlords sell their rental properties? Do you think those properties suddenly cease to exist? No they go on the market, increasing supply thus lowering prices, and people buy them to live in. Stop justifying the greed with your idiotic and ridiculous statements! This is what greedy investor landlords would like people to think so no one supports a policy of removing negative gearing.
@sfcapitalgroup I think reasons 2 and 3 of why house prices haven't fell should actually make house prices fall. Lower borrowing capacity and lower ability to save for a deposit should dampen demand and hence lower house prices. How come you are stating the opposite here?
Not looking great.. don't think there's an overnight solution. Thank you for the in-depth analysis!
Agreed. Thanks for watching!
Brilliant analysis. Thank you!
In my 35 yrs in the building industry, one of the things that really stands out on top of all this is "Expectation". Houses are just way bigger than they were 40-50 years ago. Bigger house means bigger cost.
More government means more building costs aswell . Home ownership declined under socalist bob hawke dick 1987
Bigger house but smaller land.
The land is the thing that goes up in value the most, not the building.
The houses are also made from inferior materials.
To your point though, more building regulations also force up construction costs.
600k migrants, home owner grants, greedy investor politicians all contribute to this. Plus spending 60 billion on a BS Flu.
@@teatowel11exactly! Building costs may have increased but nowhere near the rate that land has gone up. I absolutely believe a large part of this is our culture to live in quarter acre houses and think that because Australia is big we shouldn’t need to worry about this.
Think of other cities with the same population as Sydney and Melbourne, people live in apartments because that’s what they can afford. I’m sure most would prefer a house if they can afford it. Here, whenever a proposal to have high rises , the nimbies go out in force and shut it down. I’m not a fan of apartments either but I’ve come to accept that we’re at the population level that we need to go up if we want to afford a home, have the convenience of going places without sitting on a train or traffic jam for 2hrs. In other words, we need to change our way of living
you joking land cheaper in west sydney than building a home @@misterky8269
Since monetary and fiscal policy is blunt, immigration is one of the few tools stopping Australia from going into recession. Peak retirement is something we should all question.
If you check the work done by the prof. Steve Keen you will understand that immigration has nothing to do with Housing prices
Excellent assessment.
Now add 4 banks, silly profits, our super in share market where 40ish pc is 4 banks, tax those banks pay, the variable rates bank can charge when fixed prices and incomes are in place and as you list builders going bust, etc. Massive add to your model. One last. Rba does not account for international economy which impacts property prices with international buyers...
Thanks for this well structured and informed analysis!
Thank you for watching!
The low interest rates = Low Australia dollar = overseas dollar are buys our properties for cheap
Exactly
Sold out.
In short: If you live in Sydney and Melbourne forget it. Save cash and buy overseas. It's not worth it.
Yes!
Melbourne is still relatively affordable, just depends if you are willing to live further out.
Or buy gold and wait for the global currency reset.
@@gureno19 a buddy of mine recently paid 580k for a town house 2 hours out from the city centre. I'd say that isn't that affordable tbh compared to what you can buy in other countries.
Really well researched
Very thorough. Ta. My own analysis put the blame on nimbys+zoning regulations (which are linked) and immigration. Commonwealth wants cheap workers for nominal gdp growth. Ppl say no to devs because they re selfish but also because they know infrastructure will be lacklustre given the states have to beg for infra money.
Real solid! Hope the govt can do a better job in serving the younger generation.
Agreed! Thanks for watching!
younger generation has no money leftover to lobby the govt, so the status quo will not change.
Australia stopped being the lucky country since 2010 in my opinion. It’s now like the hunger games to live here. I am surprised so many students amd migrants want to come here based on the cost of living, congested cities and transport, and eye watering house prices, no house rentals. Available. I hope the government forewarn migrants to bring there own tent as there are no houses to lives in. Each new migrant that arrives, makes another Australian homeless or unable to find a rental - it’s shocking the amount of migration the government is doing without supplying housing and infrastructure to support the excessive number of new migrants. I feel sorry for the young people who will never be able to afford a home to live in, (only if they are lucky enough to have a rich parents) while investors can have multiple properties who either keep them vacant and claim taxes or use them for short term rentals that also sit vacant most of the year.
Because it's even worse elsewhere...
Your best bet is moving to Alice Springs or Bum fuck nowhere
Alice Springs is actually a nice, well serviced town. @@Antiple
@@brianlove8413 Been there, its not your melb/brissy/syd
The townhouse next to mine has been a rental property for over 20 years. Since the last renter moved out 6-8 weeks ago, it is still vacant even though it is being advertised for rental - where are the so-called 'many' homeless renters. Go figure!!!!
Great content and delivery. Your video looks and sounds amazing !!
Thank you for watching!
Well researched and presented mate. Appreciate the work you put into this.
It's not complicated. It's the same all over the developed world
Cheap money courtesy of QE.
Bonkers levels of immigration.
Even 220,000 people per year is way too many for 40,000 homes built per year. Obviously, this will lead to australia becoming a slum.
Brilliant synthesis of information. I like the systems thinking applied to this deep dive.
It is the State Governments, restricting the subdivision of land by zoning controls. Just look at the Sydney - Newcastle corridor with all that transport serviced land lying idle with constraints on development !
All that, plus the overblown building regulations causing prices of construction to escalate. You wonder why we have high building prices; land costs because of restrictions, and building costs because of restrictions !
Too much government !
with our gov allowing 300,000 migrants coming into the country....no joke there is not enough houses....
No mention of money laundering, Australia is the centre of money laundering hence so many casinos and high property prices. Wake up...
Yeah, much like Singapore
One point not discussed was that the reason Australians don't want to live in high density housing is because the quality, location and design of units are generally very poor and offer low levels of lifestyle. Plus very high strata fees and all the dramas involved in living on top of each other.
Finally, someone like you gave a all rounded in depth analysis of what really happen to the housing shortage, and not just giving a stupid and dumbfounded excuses by pushing all the blame to international students and migrants! International students pushing rental high? how about all the empty houses that specially catered for ABnB short term accommodation businesses etc, which is making top headlines in America and several other big countries that is facing housing shortages and high pricing too! Anyone spoke of this real contributing factor in the parliament? I guess not! As this would directly hurt thousands of locals here in Australia that having 2nd or 3rd homes to cater for short term accommodation businesses, which means this would LESS VOTERS!
Thanks so much for the in-depth knowledge about the housing crisis! It's crazy to see what the future would look like for younger generations to buy houses!
Thanks for watching!
why does the government enlarge the immigration intake so dramatically post covid？Internation studnets and Cheaper but skilled labour - remember during the pandemic how the universities were crying as they were starving for lack of international students, and how the businesses were crying for labour shortage？😅
They've sold out the country Australia is finished with the hoarde of immigrants from india and asia
17:49 Why lower borrowing capacity does not lower demand (lower prices) from less buyers (weaker buying power) ?
Why difficulty on saving deposit does not lower demand (lower prices) from less buyers (weaker buying power) ?
Well done great way to simplify and break down the process on housing and its major role in policy and economic ties for the Australian person , if people where more educated on the subjects they could understand a why! ,and potentially come to a turning point of what they think, might be best for Australian way of life in the coming decades as what we have had till now is destined to radically change , to where the everyday Australian today will be a shadow of its self and a distant memory told in history
Come on Charlie give me a break it's called supply and demand we've open the front door come in come all especially if your cashed up and you wonder why inflation is not coming down our productivity is low and bringing in cheap labour keeps wages down good luck Straya
Not wrong mate
This guy is a chump
Not to mentions infinite irresponsible use of quantative easing.
Informative video... Agree with every aspect of the analysis... I don't think I saw if there'd be a pullback due to the unaffordable aspects or how the government will allow this to continue to be financed
This is very good. Also please consider the impact on the DB&P Act 2020 and Regulation implemented in NSW on class 2 units. It has dramatically complicated new unit design and building with greater liability for developers and builders. The combination of this with supply shortages (labour and materials) has dulled fhr apetite of developers in NSW over the past 2 years and will have an ongoing impact for at least the next several years for Class 2 units, Class 3 student accommodation, and Class 9c aged care developments.