Sten Rynning - Does Russia Believe Article 5 Still has the Power to Deter its Aggression in Europe?
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- čas přidán 10. 05. 2024
- Russia's illegal war of aggression against Ukraine has shattered peace in Europe. NATO's Strategic doctrine states that Russia is the most significant and direct threat to Euro-Atlantic security, peace, and stability. It’s clear Russia wants to establish spheres of influence and control other countries through coercion, subversion, aggression, and annexation. We can now see clearly that Russia uses conventional, cyber and hybrid means - including disinformation - against NATO Allies and partners. But it also deploys an array of illegal tactics against Ukraine - targeting civilian infrastructure, energy, agricultural, food and the economy and ecology, cultural targets, and civilian dwellings, uses rape, torture, and terror, and latterly strikes against first responders, massive glide bombs and chemical weapons. NATO says it does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia, but that may be part of the problem. Russia commits crimes on this scale because no one, apart from Ukraine, has shown the will to stop them, or pose a significant threat to Russia’s ambitions or Putin’s regime.
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Sten Rynning is Director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study. Formerly he was Vice Dean for the Research at the faculty of business and social sciences, at the University of Southern Denmark (SDU). He was also a member of the Alphen Group and a non-resident associate fellow at the NATO Defence College. Among the topics he works on are NATO, European security, and war studies.
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LINKS:
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BOOKS:
NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance (2024)
War Time - Temporality and the Decline of Western Military Power
Edited by Sten Rynning, Olivier Schmitt, Amelie Theussen (2021)
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ARTICLES:
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A big thank you to Jonathan for all his efforts and activity. Having lived in Latvia and having an 11 years old son in Riga that spent already a week of military training in a camp for children, I can ensure you that when the Russian will attack , all Latvian people shall unite in the fight; never ever again they will allow a Russian occupation. They have been deported and genocided for years, and replaced by Russian immigrants to delete their identity. In Riga, 52% of population is Russian, in the second city, Daugavpils, the Russian community is 90%. Only 30% of Russian community opposes the Russian aggression against Ukraine. 70% are in favour or prefer don t answer.
Yes, Latvia was a beacon of Culture in the Baltics before the WWII and Kremlin was steadily decimating it. Singing fields were one of few manifestations left to them where they could express their identity and they did this with dignity. They did everything with dignity, even the attendants of the passenger train #10 (Moscow - Riga) in Soviet times were out of that world. My hat is off to you, Latvia.
@@DARDA360 Yeah, dignity is the right word. As a Czech expert in Baltic Studies, I lived in Latvia for several years and "dignity" describes them very well. They´re a reserved Northern nation, have a sense of quality of goods (unlike us Czechs, which keeps driving me crazy), take nothing for granted, they´re proud of their small businesses, and their singing choirs are out of this world. Quite a lot to learn from them.
yes! And the U.S. & rest of Nato should be seriously ready to defend (truly, not with exceptions in the case of just slivers of land, hell no, NO LAND will be given to russians under ANY circumstances at all, AND Ru is at risk of losing the enclave if it keeps effing around like it has been with electronic, and physical harassment of the west. This is getting very serious from my perspective as an american middle aged man, and if ppl like me are in charge (i'm a liberal), we will not do as Biden has and soft-foot this whole thing, we will handle Ru in the ONLY way it knows to be handled, ie assertively with NO exceptions to red lines.
These statistics on Russian displacement of the native peoples help me to understand the abrasive Russian tourist. This is the true face of communism
Her name is Kaja Kallas!! And she is what NATO needs!!
That’s the one- I couldn’t remember in the moment and under pressure!
@@SiliconCurtain Yep 😉
I do think Kaja is suited for EU or NATO leadership after her role as our PM here in Estonia. Her clear headed understanding and strong voice has woken many other leaders. Greetings from Estonia.
@@EEX97623 Totally with you, Slava Ukraini from Vienne/Autriche
Pronouncing Kaja Kallas: The "a"s are always long as in "father" in English. The "j" is pronounces like a "y" as in German. For the rest use normal English pronunciation. Thus: Kaya Kallas czcams.com/video/x0cOLKVSPlg/video.html .I don't actually speak Estonian, but Google and CZcams do. Also, she and others like her are very much what NATO needs.
slava ukraine! 💙💛😊✌
Thank you Jonathan and Sten for this very thought provoking episode.
Amazing, Jonathan, how you produce a new, high quality video everday. You are tireless! Thanks so much.❤
Every night I look forward to your videos. Greetings from Copenhagen
Same. This remains to be some of the best thoughtful analysis I've found yet :)
@@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531 totally agree. The key points and the precision of what he says MUST be heard clearly by all of us, who need to push our democratic rep's to take the right choices, like here in the USofA where i am a citizen of and am middle aged. It's time to get ready with a coalition of the willing, to truly defend every bit of land, including empty lands in the Baltics or Norway etc etc. It's time to understand how Ru thinks, which is in very simplistic terms of primal human orientation, ie 200 years back, and 600 years back. They are stuck in the past, as are other nations to some extent, such as Iran and China, and they all must be handled well. But Ru is vastly more threatening in uniquely successful ways, than the other two.
Sten Rynning's clear objectivity is what is needed now.
That was really interesting! Thank you both!
Thanks for an interesting interview. During the Cold War, Sweden had a far-reaching nuclear weapons program, but after pressure from the United States, it was shut down. In exchange, Sweden received security guarantees. One wonders just what these guarantees are worth.
As much as the Budapest Memorandum signature = SFA.
Budapeat outlined only that the US wpuld bring the matter to the security council.
Sexurity assurances arent a blank check call on US taxpayers@gerryhouska2859
Thanks Jonathan 😊. A5 is our guarantee that we do have friends to help us all weather it's a warning Or more deadly so we're not erased and forgotten 😊. Stand strong 🔱💪😡
Thank you once again Jonathan, another interesting and informative show, the best on you tube.
Thanks for this episode on NATO. So good to hear about what is going on and the benefits we've had. Im so fed up of hearing lazy, cynical opinions on this subject. Its quite dificult to find anyone who will have a proper discussion.
We have probably become rather informed. Modern politics is reduced to saying the on message things and has little room for thoughtful insight
As always, Jonathan, great interview. So many ideas to digest here, that will have to listen again and again 🙏🇺🇦🇺🇦
👍👍👍
Gotta say, all your shows lately are smashing it. Bravo, man. 👍
Thank you, Jonathan, for your conversation with Sten Rynning.
🇺🇦 Перемоги і миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
Fantastic questions as always.
No. It does not. The deterrence value has been eroded by under investment, isolationism, and division that has been encouraged by Russian influence both overt and covert.
Russia is sh!tting their pants over article 5. It has stopped them attacking NATO countries. Non NATO, even a large country like Ukraine, Russia pushed their luck until they wound up in this mess.
Very true, the German situation could be compared to France during the German blitzkrieg
And yet strengthened by Sweden and Finland joining. What about consensus?
@wendyandrew3707 England was not able to do very much to help France. And Germany, may be just as weak today
@@mikefallwell1301 Thanks for your reply
Excellent guest and conversation! The points about nuclear proliferation (post US in NATO) are are not talked about enough. Some conversations in the US (both left and right) are very naive went it comes to the wider world with cause and effect. 💙💛
With the extremely lax media laws in the US, it has long been the practice of America's adversaries to use domestic American propaganda outlets quite openly to further the atmosphere of isolationism. Hitler did it through the Lindberg's and the German-American Bund and the America First organization .. pretty much just as Putin is doing it now through Trump, the Republican party leaders, and the party media outlet "Fox news". Republicans have been systematically disinvesting in public education to the point where some Americans probably can't spell the word 'propaganda' correctly and far too many can't identify the stuff when they encounter it :(
Very interesting conversation but also deeply unsettling. Being a Swede and fresh member of NATO, I must say that all this talk about article 5 has never really made me feel safer. And without the US... Sten Rynning is quite right. It's the consensus of the members of the alliance that constitutes the power. And how easy will that be, let's say, with a US that remains in NATO but opposes?
That guy was great, very interesting.
NATO is immensely important both for large, strong countries and for small countries.
Please remember the attempted serbo-russian armed coup in the NATO member Montenegro.
Had Ukraine been at least a candidate, most probably, Putin would not have waged a risk.
This is marvellous! So insightful
Exactly jonathan, we need leaders.
Thank you, Jonathan.
But I wonder why the solidarity among the dictators were easier?
Convenient transactional deals that suit immediate needs, that however have no long term sustainability. It’s short sighted greed and authoritarian power plays.
@@EEX97623
Thanks. Sir. Got it.
But our democratic countries must do better than that, or at least not play on words such as 'as long as it takes.'
Thank You!
..Thanks Johnathan and Sten for another highly informative Stream, packed full with NATO and the Wests failures but knowing the failures means we can learn from them…💙💛💙
Fantastic interview - EXCEPT - you didn't ask the question I most wanted to address. Article 5. My reading of it is that there is NO requirement a country respond with troops weapons or funds - no enforcement. Is that correct and how does that effect NATO given the undependability of Trump to say the least, and even the cowardice the US and others have shown already. The trigger is not immediate, how long would it take Russia to take Estonia for example and what would NATO do? Debate? There is no quick trigger as I understand it, or consensus on preventing or responding. That is what Putin is weighing. I believe 99% of people in NATO think that if they're attacked the US would be there immediately no matter what, and I believe telling citizens in Europe that is not the case would make them push for more, perhaps their Governements don't want them to know because they don't want to.
Your reading is essentially correct. Article 5 requires members to come to the aid of an attacked member, but the amount and type of aid up to each member state. There is no enforcement provision. The interviewee's description of members response to Article 5 being invoked for Afghanistan illustrates the point. All that said, however, NATO's joint training exercises, standardization of equipment and infrastructure provide valuable tools for those who do respond to an attack. The key is to think in terms of "coalitions of the willing". Take the Lapland incursion scenario as an example of how this might work. There is no doubt in my mind that the Nordic countries would respond aggressively to Finland being invaded. I would also expect most of Eastern Europe (excluding Hungary and Slovakia) and most of the rest of Europe to respond. I would also expect Ukraine to join. The U.S. response would depend on who is in the White House and running congress. Given the weaknesses we have seen in the Russian army, especially logistics given the far northern conditions, plus NATO air superiority that should be enough to stop the Russian advance and possibly push them back. Russia might also need to say good bye to Kaliningrad. In any event, one might borrow from one of Mao Zedong's sayings to the effect that consensus is helpful, but deterrence flows from the barrel of a gun.
thank you, very well said. It worries me that I don't think most people know that. I worry about us in the US being the weakest link, and I did hear an excellent report on there being an argument on the strategy in the Baltics on prioritizing forward defense to avoid an attack, rather if responding to one as Russia could do a lot of damage very quickly
I do think more Europeans would push their leaders to do more if more understood the danger they are in fully - I know most people in the US believe Article 5 is automatic, obligatory, they just worry about Trump pulling out of NATO not realizing even if Republicans make him stay in he doesn't have to respond. Maybe more Europeans are educated - Americans seem to have forgotten the Bush years and how Article 5 worked then
Sorry I am long winded, but this is another reason I agree with what Macron is doing. He is stating the obvious he cannot rule out boots on the ground in Ukraine, no one knows what Russia may do, how things plasy out. It would be like the US saying we'll never put boots on the ground in Poland in WW2 hoping that would de-escalate when it did the opposite. Maybe we did. To me the US is sending very weak signals sewing doubt.
Yes! What will Nato do if Russia puts one million soldiers on the border to the Baltic states? I think and probably Putin too, we will do nothing except empty threats. No one is willing to sacrifice thousands of their own people. And US will send hearts and prayers under Trump. It will basicly be the same as for Ukraine, but this time the war will be over in three days.
Very interesting guest and topic. Thank you!
Excellent
Excellent discussion!
Very much enjoyed this insightful sober interview, a key early point was about moving away from balance of power to a cooperative consensus moderating nationalistic over ambitions.
Hearing that it explains the inherent dislike of the European institutions in certain quarters.
Sadly the ignorant selectively filter out the long term Russian provocation.
There is the natural attraction to pacifistic ideals, that popular idea with voters that "being friendly" and reasonable will dispell "misunderstandings" and maintain the status quo.
Being aware of the RF's subliminal warfare campaign and the sheer lawlessness of the Kremlin is something too uncomfortable for most to acknowledge.
Insightful and thought provoking. Great content as always 😊
invaluable context. thank you for making these great learnings possible, Jonathan!
Hi, I really appreciate your style of interviews, plus of course the content is superb.
And the fact that you publish new videos so frequently is absolutely mind-blowing.
👍👍👍
Who needs sleep?!
@@SiliconCurtain 😂
Clearly they do not.
This will have seriously unfortunate consequences if not unequivocally refuted.
Now.
Ukraine still has world class nuclear weaponeers ….
Achieving consensus on an inadequate strategy is a formula for defeat. Consensus should not be a suicide pact.
We don't need a Rutter, we need a negotiator who simply has balls.
👍👍👍
YO...LOVE YOU BRO, GREAT SHOW BRING NATO GENERAL HODGES ON A WEEKLY BASIS2014 -17 I BELIEVE AS US
SHAPE COMMANDER..IS THAT CORRECT?🔱⭐🇩🇪
👍
President Trump said various things concerning NATO/OTAN as you accurately point out. All true and on the record. His reasoning, though, were 180 degrees from your conclusion. Freddy Chavre of Maple Valley
I just can’t follow up your many brilliant interviews…
May be they can a little bit shorter 🤷♀️😉
I would very much like listening to all of them.
Gry - as in greeting, bau - as in bow, skai - as in sky, tė - as in tea in German 😂
#1000
NATO Needs to activate article 5 right N O W !
Sit down. The adults are speaking
@@diegoflores9237 Tahnks. Some of us know how WW1 started because of paper agreements.
A Ukrainian victory would cost NATO considerably less than a future war on NATO territory. This comment has been removed several times. In my haste one re-posting may have resulted in a typo which inadvertantly replaced less with more.
No.
Слава Україні 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Thanks for the interesting interview. I was wondering, have you noticed how Biden barely mentioned Ukraine (as a subject, not merely a location) or Ukrainians in his speech on the 1st day of the full-scale war? From the start, the intentions of the US did not include saving Ukraine, let alone helping it defeat Russia. And Biden and co. are fairly consistent this approach.
It’s so important that Silicone curtain and others are in contact with Ukraine to keep a democratic link for those people
Surely Ukraine doesn’t have any choice but to fight long range?
Yes, the former Dutch Prime Minister is the best choice.
I try to post comments as often as I can, not just to join the discussion but also to help the channel with the algorythm. But it is becoming increasingly difficult with comments disappearing on a regular basis. I find it hard to believe that this is the CZcams algorythm. If this is troll activity I can draw comfort from the fact that some sad little troll is trying to suppress a truth they don't want out there on CZcams, but it is hardly a satisfactory situation.
An 11 year old in military training! Isn't that what the Nazis did to their children?
The art of the deal 😊 Trump ✝️
Of course it doesnt. Europe spent 40 years buying Russian wnergy and neglecting defense.
US should walk
An important discussion. The US delay strategy (over a Ukraine win strategy ) must be exposed. The US admin strategy is causing many liives to be wasted. It is discusting what US is doing.
! Hidden comments alert: Sort comments by "newest first" to view.
The "political contingency" is fair enough in my view. Im British, but i fail to see why the USA should pay for the defence of Europe when European countries are unwilling to do so. They paid their own social spending but spend little on defence, whilst they criticise the US for doing the opposite, all while shielding under the skirts of the US forces. The Europeans who don't pay up SHOULD be ashamed of themselves and agree ASAP to increase defence funding. If that means cutting social and welfare programs so be it.
Where has Biden been on supporting the still pending Ukraine aid package? I’m trying to imagine Obama being so quiet
Former president Obama didn't have a congress who openly cheer on lil putin.
Росія напала на Україну у 2014. Обама був ще тихіший.
_Ukraine has zero functioning airports for over two years, but Russia has several hundred cities each with several hundred flights per day_ . . . WHY?
_No smoke is coming out of Kaliningrad or Minsk or Moscow or Transnistria_ . . . WHY? - j q t -
A troll factory here. Just know you are being tracked.
This channel doesn’t deal in realities
The sad reality is that if a NATO country is attacked by Russia it is more likely to be excluded from NATO than to have other NATO countries join the fight.
Don’t be silly
@@deanejoyce5393 what's silly about it?
@@lazaruslong9324 that simply would not happen. Therefore it is silly
@@deanejoyce5393 well, I hope we'll never have to find out.
But imagine this scenario: there is this town of Narva in the very east of Estonia. 88% of its population are ethnic Russians.
Let's just imagine that Russia sends there a few spetznaz squads disguised as locals. They start anti-government riots, a significant bunch of local useful idiots join them. Government buildings in Narva and police are overrun by protesters instigated by Russia. They declare Narva People's Republic or whatever and they say they want independence from Estonia and to join Russia and plan to hold a referendum.
At the same time some local farmers paid by Russia start a protest for whatever imaginable reason and block every major road leading to Narva just the way Polish farmers did recently. Estonian military cannot easily get there. They sent a few helicopters, but they are shot down by the protesters. Estonia invokes the article 5. Russia makes a statement denying their involvment, and saying that it is an internal Estonian affair and that Estonia must not use force and instead should negotiate and find a peaceful solution, and at the same time threatens to use nukes if russian-speaking citizens of Narva are hurt. At the same time millions of pro-russian trolls and a few paid media personaliteis (like Tucker Carlson for example) start a masive information campaign saying "why do we all have to die over this small piece of land?".Some pro-Putin politicians (Orban, Fico) inside NATO try to block or at least delay NATO response arguing that they don't want to be involved in war with Russia.
How sure you are that in this scenario the all the NATO countries would risk nuclear apocalypse over the small town on the Russia border? If it was an all-out invasion the way Russia did to Ukraine, yeah, I have no doubt that NATO would react appropriately. But in case of such a not obvious aggression, I am not so sure that NATO will be able to react quickly and decisively.
I wonder how stupid Trump really is? Does he for example realize the very real risk pointed out in this discussion, of nuclear proliferation, if the USA goes isolationist? And if a few European countries aquire nuclear weapons, probably quite a few countries in other parts of the world will do the same. This would make the entire world - which as it happens, does also include the USA, inspite of what isolationists seem to think - significantly more insecure.
Don't speak about Europe because my country sent 2500 soldiers to Afghanistan and thats equal to USA sending 151k soldiers and we weren't even part of NATO but we are part of Europe. Talk about the countries not doing their part because if we speak about Europe as one then shouldn't we speak about North America as one. Like theres about the same amount of people in Europe as in north America so you can compare them and I did not hear about any Mexican soldiers helping...
Like you keep talking about Europe not having this and that... like stop! I don't see USA having an wartime army of 17m soldiers but I do see my country having 5% of the population and another 10-15% as reserve. Start to mention the countries by name or start to use North America when you compare to Europe.
The same thing I have to listen about how blond hair and blue eyes is the root of all evil when it comes to the poor black people in USA, like I can promise you that none of my relatives probably saw a black person the first time a TV came to a village and it was in black and white so there was no colors. Like we have old people still today that have never seen one in real life but still we are somehow were the root behind all the slavery throughout humanity's history just because we have blond hair and blue eyes...
Then just as a perspective for you. I as a Karelian by blood has never seen the allies as the ones "saving Europe" and always as the ones that made a deal with the devil and assisted the Kremlin to take my homeland. You had your reasons but half of Europe had to suffer under the Soiviet, you allowed them to steal my homeland and we would not be fighting the Kremlin today if you would have let the Germans take care of it. Can't say if the German issue would have been solved but the Germans could have removed the "tower in mordor". Funny that LOTR is inspired by our folklore and the elvis language built from ours, strange things when the first orc was an elf twisted by evil when there was a Uralic people that existed in Mordva. I see it as funny how fiction can get so close to reality.
What is done is done, but now you sit and complain about Germany being weak and the Kremlin being a problem... Who made Germany weak and who saved the Kremlin?
Russians war in Ukraine has exactly the same legal background as the Serbian Air war of 1999. Get your scripts right.
No, it doesn't. Zelensky is not Milošević. Russian aggression has been condemned by the UN GA while the bombardment of Milošević's Yugoslavia has been subsequently approved by UN SC resolution 1244.
Bohdanivka has Joined The Russian Federation 🇷🇺🥳
Hey pal; were America"s wars against: Vietnam,Libya, Serbia,Iraq, Afghanistan.Laos,Cambodia and Syria legal? Cut out the BS. Russia's has the world's foremost military and it would easily defeat NATO.
Do you do stand-up?
Ministry of Defense NATO GDP 20X greater than Russia. NATO has 3.2M military personnel compared to Russia's 1.2M. NATO has 4X as many tanks as Russia, 6X as many armoured fighting vehicles, 4X pieces of artillery and fires, 3X as many submarines, 4.5X as many warships, 16 aircraft carriers to Russia's 1, 4X as many attack helicopters, 8X as many transport aircraft, 3X as many fighter aircraft. RtHon Grant Shapps MP@grantshapps
What are you smoking? The UK has only 40 tanks in working order. The same s- -t holds good for the rest of NATO.Stop being delusional.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂….(breathe)😂😂😂😂😂😁😁😁🤡🤡🤡
United States has frozen conflict with North Korea, a country that remains in darkness seen from satellite images. South Korea flourishes and supports Ukraine. 🇺🇦
article five - great joke 😂😂😂 Latvia Lithuania and Estonia not laughing 😂😂
And why are you laughing?
@@sailawayteam Some people laugh out of fear, my guess is that is the case here.
Fafo❤