Are US Politics Undergoing A Racial Realignment? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Vložit
- čas přidán 27. 03. 2024
- A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks about these shifting dynamics with John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, and Chryl Laird, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. They explore why voters of color might be shifting right and what it could mean for Democrats.
Website: fivethirtyeight.com/
Merch: fivethirtyeight.com/store
Twitter: / fivethirtyeight
Facebook: / fivethirtyeight
Podcast: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
The social pressure to vote in bloc with your surroundings is very common among white Christians and white people living in small towns or rural communities).
From my experience, 20-25% of white women in rural America and/or who identify as a faithful Christian are pro-Choice. But they won't ever say it out loud, only in powder rooms with like minded women.
From the data I've seen, it's not minority voters. It's the consolidation of religious voters into a right wing coalition. It's minorities with strong religious views who are shifting increasingly right.
It's a lot more complicated than that. There has been a massive shift of highly educated high income voters to the Democratic party, and a similar shift of low income less educated voters to the Republican party. Younger minority voters are less religious but are moving away from the Democratic party more than older more religious voters. For Latino voters, there are growing numbers of 2nd and 3rd generation people who are largely part of the cultural mainstream, people with surnames like Gallegos who are generations removed from the Spanish language and are similar to Italian Americans in the 60s and 70s. In other words, those who are more conservative will vote one way and those who are less conservative will vote the other, they are no longer voting as an ethnic block. And some of the new immigrants who are voting as a block are from Cuba and Venezuela and they are not friendly the Democratic party.
There has long been an assumption on the part of the left that Latino voters in particular would always be part of their block, and that is very clearly not the case anymore. It also seems to be changing with African American voters, albeit a little more slowly as that population is a little more segregated.
The Evangelic are Red which is why Trump's favorite book is now the bible
@@kevinwoolley7960 data analysts have always known that there is diversity in minorities. And young people are leaving Dems to become progressives. The ones joining Republican are influenced by religion.
@@carlkim2577 not trying to be argumentative here, but religious affiliation is in decline across society and especially among the young. Polling since 2016 shows a very clear upward trend among younger minority voters toward Trump. This isn't due to some surge in religiosity among younger voters, because there isn't any such surge, it has to do with the Democratic party losing its long time grip on lower income less educated blue collar voters.
@@kevinwoolley7960 sure I actually she with what you're saying. I've also seen the numbers on religion declining. Also the shift in lower income voters. It's really lvl of education. But the shift of younger voters to the right is not comparable to the shift towards progressives. Not according to the numbers I've seen. I don't see gen z falling in love with Trump.
These two guests brought their A game. Great discussion.
Also, had i just given birth a week ago, there's no way I'd be that put together.
thank you tony !!!!!
Eh, I feel like it's too early to tell and it's a cultural realignment rather than racial.
Trump is bombastic? I think you got the wrong Shaggy song - I think "It wasn't me" is a better fit for him XD
Nooooooo Tonyyyyyyyyy
P.S. Best of luck though!
still want to use Latinx eh?
I’ve heard a joke that that’s the only word latinoes get mad if you call them.
I refuse to use it. Very condescending.
it IS @@tompatterson1548
Thank you for all your work, Tony! Congratulations on the new gig and best of luck!
Events come in cycles until it affects you and when it does you have to make a decision are you for or against. You got to be careful when you make choices it can have a devastating effect on a lot of people. Some people see things differently.
Latinx... dude why
Inclusivity
@@AugustTheStagit’s not
All forms of the term Latin are culturally genocidal! Erasing native indigenous mesoamerican Native American Chicano identity!!!!!
Forced inclusivity. It shows Libs have the power in social dynamics. It doesn't matter what the Hispanic community wants. It only matters that they can say they're better people because they use the "correct" words.
Personally I'm thinking it's just a fad amongst college grads who've never worked alongside Latinos before.
@@kabine1 it’s cultural erasure. All forms of Latin, Latinx, Hispanic, etc are to erase Native identity
Will you bring back the Swing-o-Matic from 2016?
36:00 you don't have to rely on post election polls to know how someone voted but a lot of states provide precinct level data and it is easy to know if there's an actual shift in the voting patterns.
Strictly anecdotal but Young black voters I’ve spoken with are leaving the Democratic Party and moving further left.
When the last pro-black policies were passed in the 60s/70s it's surprising it has taken so long.
They are still trying to make Latinx a thing.
Why not?
@@AugustTheStagits just not necessary, and a lot of latino people reaaally don't like it so its never going to really catch on
@@michaeljohnson905 Latino is gendered though
@@AugustTheStag then just say Latin Americans? Or Latin people, or something else besides Latinx
@@michaeljohnson905 good point!
Vale Tony Cao (or some other transliteration) - this is such a great podcast, on all technical levels, making the content shine.
So we're using the polling that we've seen recently that seems to make no sense. I can guarantee you minority support did not shift by over 15 points in 4 years. This is especially true considering we have a midterm election that shows much closer numbers to the previous election. Add to that that the midterm election still was shifted slightly to the right just by the fact that it is a midterm and it is going to have less turn out, you can see that a lot of this makes very little sense.
I totally disagree Biden is open about his dismissal of the black vote to replace the black base with immigrants. He will not win Georgia again. Look at the red states and tell me there aren't significant populations of blacks?
Congrats Tony!!
Well whatever is happening it's happening worldwide
Cool to put a face with the name, congrats on the new job!
George Bush was that guy to but , WHAT,crazy!
Please have Chryl Laird on more.
What?
Latinx 🤭
Amidst the discussion this episode, I've often wondered about how much opportunism there is in going against political trends, especially for young people? For example, young political activists would seem the most-likely to be discouraged by a lack of ascendency in a political party, where entrenched representatives are seen as indomitable, and so the ambitious and frustrated choose to defect to the local opposition party, at least gamble for their own chance at influence, power, and control of their political systems.
the entire dem leadership agrees and is making way for newer generations to lead.
@@People_of_the_Mouse You mean that they are almost on deaths doorstep so they are making way by moving on to the geriatric wards so to speak!
Goodbye, Tony! Best wishes on your next job!
The memories of the "Civil Rights Era",are fading??? Please stop speaking for black people!
I find the term LatinX offensive. Why can't we just use the word latin? BTW there's lots of diversity within the latin communities.
It's puzzling to me.
I like how this video was about people of color and yet spent the entire time talking about African-Americans
You do realize that both Latino and Latin X are invented terms right?
Then we wonder why hispanics are bailing
The term is Latino/Latina, not Latin. Latinx is just the shorthand term that academics use.
So, no talk about the white shift to Democrat? Suburban, college educated whites who normally voted Republican.
Living in Mexico and watching the politics and racial tensions in my home country from right across the border sometimes makes me feel 1. blessed and relieved that I do not live in the US anymore and 2. exhausted both mentally and emotionally because I see my country changing and not in a positive way for Blacks and my fellow Hispanics. It is inconceivable how my fellow Hispanics can vote for far-right politicians that are white. It seems that there are two reasons: 1. they do not realize that under a far-right government they will be 2nd class citizens or 2. they want to be 2nd class citizens for some reason.
Neoliberalism has eaten so much of both sides of the political class that I think people just want any kind of disruption. (SADLY disruption destroys businesses & wealth the very thing these communities need.)
We will miss tony
I wish we'd 'met' him sooner...the man of mystery
I'm a white evangelical boomer from Mississippi who's going to change my vote to the Democrats. This is going to be a new trend.
Yeah. I’ve seen a lot of content from former evangelicals, and the sort of values you guys care about totally allign with the democratic party except for the reproductive rights issue.
Look, a unicorn!
Moral fiber on your part. Respect.
Welcome. We have cookies. 🍪
Well, while you celebrate trans day of visibility, real Christian’s will be celebrating Easter 👍🏻
#honestymatters
Good lord please stop saying latinx
Why?
To soon to say. Going to have to wait tell all the Trump era chaos dies out and things settle down again before talking seriously about realignments.
At this point terms like "Racial Realignment" is more click bait than anything else.
Dementia joe is the real chaos. So is all dems they cause the real chaos
minorities had better be very wary of MAGA...........vote blue
Lmao NOBODY has anything to worry bout unless you’ve come here illegally to get handouts. ALL my Hispanic friends who’re born here are voting for Trump and I mean ALL of them
Oh yes, bc fear motivates people who are ignored no matter who's in power.
What has the dem party done for a minority group that has never improved that groups lives so why not try something different and vote red and see if stuff improves etc.
This itch got a white baby lol😢
no one will ever love you
no they are not. they are undergoing a realignment back to a clear deliniation between a party of the masters / priests and a party of the workers. Up the Union and Up the Unions.
Being Hispanic or Latino has nothing to do with race or ethnicity. In fact I don't even consider the majority of Americans that calls themselves Hispanic to be Hispanic because of their distant relationship with Spain other than speaking Spanish. In fact I consider David Beckham to be more Hispanic than Americans who calls themselves Hispanic despite being British because of his ongoing relationship with Spain.
I like to ask my latino friends how they are more latino then me since half my people actually spoke latin and my other half is azorian and constitute the largest country in south american
@@People_of_the_Mouse Living in deep South Texas where Hispanics are 90% of the population, we do not need to deal with terms like Latinx or what ever. Its a lot easier to navigate society when you are part of the majority and in South Texas we are the majority. We have always been the majority in deep South Texas and I like it that way.
So nobody knows the answer and pollster could just be making up things
some of the weakest most biased commentary I've heard in awhile here, I expected better
Uh oh! Blue is going to be the new racist color? Get your popcorn ready!
It wasn't a photo op they went because they actually like republican policies and there principles, pro family etc. When blacks went to the Trump wh i mean.
Hopefully Trump actually gets that young group who that guy doesn't think will actually vote that way. In even bigger numbers then currently are being shown
Everything is about "race" to the Left, so yeah.
Nah fam, everything is about trans rights. Dems don't care about race that's just rhetoric.
Race is all the left sees. They are all about identity politics
This woman is definitely a professor. She pushes out way too much verbal diarrhea { or so it seems to me.} It my be I'm not intelligent enough, or I'm not sufficiently familiar with all the terminology, but either way she doesn't seem to have a knack for speaking to the average person.
I think her logic break down if you actually listen to what she's saying. Major policies for black people happened in the late 60s and 70s...it's been 50 years
I'm a black man and going Trump 2024.
do you have any daughters ? how can you vote for a party that is literally stripping rights away from women as an ongoing project ?
Someone can be an American patriot or they can be a Trump supporter. They can't be both.
The Republican talking point about what Biden hasn't (yet) accomplished, has to be opposed by educating voters about
> The filibuster, and
> Republicans obstructing Biden's efforts.
.... Point being that voting Republican isn't the answer,
MORE Democrats are the solution!
First name Uncle, last name Tom?
@@batrachian149 These methods of maintaining in-group out-group among black people and disallowing any diversity of thought are always so disappointing.
Vote Joe Biden Democrat 2024
Please vote Democrat 🗳
Policy.
No genocide.
More infrastructure bills. More bills to support renuable energy & black businesses.
Give good policy, get votes. Give bad policy & loose is the current plan.
Nope vote ❤
One of the reasons stated is that memory of the civil rights era has faded? My memory of that era is just fine. I remember Democrats filibustering the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Democrats overwhelmingly voted AGAINST the Civil Rights Act. Democrats enacted Jim Crow laws. The 1994 crime bill was also their child. Democrats controlled the KKK. Democrats also were the slave owners. Could it be that black people have educated themselves and saw the plot against them? You gave them welfare and split their families up. You gave them Planned Parenthood which was literally (in the founders own words) designed to drive them to extinction. You were counting on them being lazy and taking the free money (that LBJ purposely gave them to get their votes) instead of wising up and thinking for themselves. Funny how no one ever admits to ANY of this. It's almost like you're trying to re-write history. Before you re-write history please let those of us who were alive back then pass on so there's no one left to dispute you, okay? I remember Governor George Wallace standing on the steps of the University of Alabama in order to deny entrance to black students. Sure, there were Democrats who opposed this but they were vastly outnumbered by Democrats who did not support civil rights. If you want the black vote, start helping black people and NOT by giving insulting handouts.
Now, here we are in 2024. Democrats claim that the parties somehow have switched alignment (they haven't). In California TODAY there are segregated dorm rooms and segregated events at liberal colleges. They aren't even trying to hide it these days.
yeah man, the ideologies of the parties change over time. the people who enacted jim crow laws are long dead.
Oof pragerU copy paste
@@TheMrDamp yep
@@TheMrDamp Wrong. I lived in Alabama when all of this was happening. Check the congressional voting record on the civil rights act of 1964. Why are you denying what can be factually proven? That's just plain stupid. I can't understand how you can possibly be disputing a single thing that I said when I can literally prove through public records that it is all true. That's just doubling down on your lies and it makes you look dishonest. Please disprove a single thing that I said and I will provide you with official US Government links to prove my point. I'll wait here...
It's obvious that you didn't live through this era in US history because ALL of what I said is common knowledge to those of us who did. Of course you cannot counter what I said in the first place so you hurled an insult instead of a link to the facts. That says more about YOU than it does about my factual comments.
Almost like there was a party switch in the 60s. 🤦🏻♀️
Not a big surprise that the female Democrat thinks it’s impossible that anybody could want to leave her party.
And what in the world is Latin X?
That's not even remotely close to what she said. But your misogyny is showing.
@@mrwho995 it’s not misogyny I said female to distinguish between the two people unless you don’t believe in male female, and that is basically what she said that if you’re black, you have to be a Democrat. How is that not racist?
She literally mentions black conservatives/ lawmakers for black people to hear new perspectives and give them a black conservative community.. what are you yapping nonsense about? Magas are sooooo dull, absolutely no critical thinking, it surprises me still sometimes
@@OSUforlife because republicans are literally making laws against black people? duh. just listen to them. "boeing is manufacturing planes wrong, must be because DEI hired black people to build em'" is literally what republican politicians are saying right now