Nigel Gould Davies - Why A Putin Victory Risks Security, Freedom, Tolerance, and Wealth in the West.
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- čas přidán 10. 05. 2024
- Nigel Gould-Davies is a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London. Between 2010 and 2013 he held senior government relations roles in the international energy industry. Previously he has also served in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, where his roles included head of the Economic Section in Moscow, ambassador to Belarus, and project director in the Policy Planning Unit. He is author of Tectonic Politics: Global Political Risk in an Age of Transformation (Brookings, 2019).
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Thanks for the update Johnathan ,Nigel and the Team …. 💙💛💙
It would be a great thing to see Europe come up with their own type of Article 5.That way the world isn't stuck on America's version of the right and wrong thing to do somewhere else in the world. With Taiwan in the mix and investments in the right area, this could be the greatest thing for the world in general. I love my country, but we don't always do the right thing or pick the right side to support. Thanks.
Glory to Ukraine. God Bless Ukraine and her people. 🇺🇦🇺🇸
As a British European I completely agree with you. We need more balance across the Atlantic and this, fundamentally, is something that we in Europe have to do for ourselves. Domestic European solidarity and strength (political, military and economic) should be seen as another (now very necessary) pillar to underpin our collective security and wellbeing. It in no way should this be seen as a rejection of constructive partnerships with the United States and other countries and regions when the conditions and stability for such partnerships exist. It should be seen as an enabler for better decision-making all around.
As we all know, there have been times over the last 25 years when our collective transatlantic decision making could've been better. Many of the flaws in the quality of our decision-making had roots in an over-abundance of American military power and a temptation to use it as a blunt instrument even when it wasn't appropriate or skillful to do so. And also European lack of political and military cohesion (and preoccupation with fire-fighting a self-made economic crisis by tinkering around the edges of it) while perhaps only seeing the dangers of misusing abundant military power whilst ignoring the dangers of not sufficiently investing in cohesive integrated European defence (which is more of a political issue than ever it was an economic one alone). My country, the UK, in particular blocked Europe becoming militarily more independent and cohesive as a matter of policy which - as we now see - was both blinkered and short-sighted.
Other countries have been equally as blinkered, relying on collective defence as a matter of policy, but treating defence procurement and foreign policy as a fragmented, non-strategic, nationally ring fenced domestic economic and political concern. In many cases we've treated this as an opportunity to flag-wave and as a job and profit-making business rather than a vital element of our own wider security. Many of us have engaged in wishful thinking.
We all need to learn from this experience and to be a little more humble and respectful of each other. The irony is that we have a belligerent (but fortunately weakened and ill-prepared) Russia to thank for helping to bring us to our senses.
The problem is Europe doesn't always do the right thing either. It definitely didn't do the right thing in terms of its own defences. And the beurocratic crap stemming from the EU was so bad that it drove the UK into that whole brexit mess. Hell, some EU laws even mess with the work I do in Australia.
@@toby9999 It sounds as if you walk through life half asleep. Open your eyes, mate. You have far.... FAR... far more bureaucracy now that the UK is outside of the EU than *any* EU country.
I operate businesses on both sides of the Channel, am British but live on the continent. Until 2016 I was heavily involved with the British government delivering systems to REDUCE bureaucracy, make cross border trade easier, faster and cheaper. As well as working with the UK Government Digital Services organisation to simplify all aspects of dealing with the British government and its rules.
The massive irony is that people like you chunter on about "Brussels bureaucracy" without a damn clue about what you're talking about. yet the reality is the exact OPPOSITE.
Why do you think the EU exists, you silly person? And why do you think so many countries are trying to join it after having decades of experience of the disadvantages of being outside it? Those candidate countries all have FAR more experience of being outside the EU than the UK does. And they all know that the mountain if bureaucracy that they face today all DISAPPEARS the day they become EU members.
As somebody who used to work cross border prior to 1992, to put one of our engineering people from Britain in a factory in Austria - one of our subsidiaries - used to take 6 to 9 months. It was so hard to get residence permits in Austria that we used to get their work permits for Austria but their residence permits for Germany. It was nightmare and cost a fortune in time, money and paperwork. That's the world that the UK is going back to.
In the EU we just used to buy a plane ticket and that person would be working in Austria the same day at the drop of a hat. No business visa required. No driving licence issues. No insurance issues. And all with fully transferrable social security and pension benefits with full access to public healthcare in any country within the EU.
You have absolutely no idea how hard that is now. It has become such a nightmare that for smaller UK businesses (including manufacturers, creative industries and so many more) it has killed their exports and capacity to adequately support their overseas projects stone cold dead.
Even as a Brit I now have to worry about contravening local laws when crossing borders for something as simple as a business meeting in Germany or a sales demo in Switzerland or Norway (that aren't even in the EU).
You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
And mate, the reason EU regulations exist for things like manufacturing, farming, IT, telecoms, farming, medical foods, pharmaceuticals and banking is to make life EASIER and CHEAPER for the people in EU countries. That's why EU citizens and residents (like me) no longer have to worry about exorbitant mobile phone charges abroad. Whereas in dear old Britain, outside of the EU, those charges are being ramped up.
You wanna licence your British product to sell it abroad? You do that at EU level with a CE mark certifying it to EU regulations and you can automatically legally sell it in most countries in the world (not just the EU) because they accept the EU standards and licencing as more than good enough. This is the very reason that the UK has now abandoned it's own equivalent - which would've more than doubled the costs for British businesses for absolutely no gain whatsoever.
Seriously, mate. Open your eyes and stop repeating what were ALWAYS downright ridiculous lies for stupid and ignorant people to repeat like the suckers that they are. The rest of us now actually have to deal with the logjam of bureaucracy that the UK has now created for all of us with Brexit.
I do shed loads of business with the US and all the guys there think the Brits are nuts. As do many Australians incidentally. And guess what, when you want to sell stuff in and around America you have to comply with Federal laws over and above the individual state laws. Works the same as the EU laws in Europe. Americans in business all understand Title 21 of the Federal regulations (or whatever other Titles apply to their sectors and usually choose to apply EU law such as GDPR (data privacy laws from the EU) voluntarily because they simply MAKE SENSE and go hand in hand with influential state laws from important markets like California.
As always, interesting, informative and thought provoking. Thank you for all your sterling efforts.
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A fascinating interview with some very clear-sighted thinking. Let's hope some of those in charge are listening to this sort of analysis.
Another great guest and amazing conversation. Mr Davis knows the region and issues well.
Thank you for the guest.
This commentary on international relations is an apt dig at 'realist' John Mearsheimer's abstract generalisations and his straining to make fact fit theory!
Excellent
As always, well done for keeping up the pressure. Philosopher Giorgio Agamben speaks of "the Open", clearing the space. That is what you do. You clear the ether of Russian bullshit.
How? By defying Russia every day and opposing their lies with reason and first-rate research.
I came across your channel several weeks ago. Great pleasure to listen to the experts on the subject. Thank you .
Enjoyed this immensely, Jonathan! You have become the primary source for ideas and possibilities on the Geopolitical stage. 💪💪🙌🇺🇦
Very good conversation. The answer to the last question is absolutely critical.
Thank you, Jonathan, for your conversation with Nigel Gould Davies.
🇺🇦 Перемоги і миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
Thank You! Like!
Its a delight to listen to Nigel's clear style of communication and his points are bang on
Thanks Jon 😊
💛💙💜💙💛 Here I am, listening uninterrupted 😁
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It's much easier to stay resilient with the support of bright gentlemen like you on our side. Thank you, as usual.
Thank you both. We must win this! 💛💙💛💙
You are right, all of the staff are great, heaven only knows how many people it takes to put on such a great show. Thanks.
Glory to Ukraine. God Bless Ukraine and her people. 🇺🇦🇺🇸
Excellent interview, thank you.
Indecision and delay about what to do about frozen assets is turning out to be no better than the tussle over Ukraine aid with Mike Johnson with equally damaging results for Ukraine and outcome of the war.
Those " FROZEN" assets belong to Russia.
@@petehowett2854 Ukraine belongs to Ukrainians.
Tack!
Thanks
Thank you!
Give Taurus a chance
Thank you, Jonathan. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
LOVE YOU TOBRO...THANK YOU🔱⭐🇩🇪...,..,
SOUTH PHILADELPHIA, OUT......* _ °
An excellent and stimulating discussion. Nigel Gould-Davies adds a lot of depth, knowledge and insight with well-considered and fundamentally sound arguments.
Another nice guest.
I’ve yet to hear a compelling case for IR as having any real world application.
What is IR?
@@user-yq2wk6yg8s-- International Relations
It's not that it can't be compelling.... It's that the person doing it rarely seems to know anything about what he's trying to apply it to. 😅😅😅😅😅😅😅
Excellent discussion! Thank you.
The west doesn't see how competing with say Saudi Arabia for the price of wheat might be to their detriment. Putin would be happy to bleed the world dry of its wheat supply. Oil is temporary and unsatisfactory as a truncheon. He tried it in 2022 and it did not work as well as food does. He doesn't have Ukraine yet and still he is attempting to use Ukraine's grain shipments to leverage cooperation from other countries. He would love to hold China's wheat. Netanyahu knows well the ability of food to persuade people. So does Putin. No one talks about the food. Yet everyone can see how well it got the worlds attention in Gaza.
Well said, this is not discussed enough. Control over Ukrainian wheat to bound to African nations would also be of interest to Russia.
Ukraine has control of the black sea and grain shipments are higher than 2022 now. Oil targets are effecting the Russian home market and are a legitimate target.
Your comment re Netanyahu smacks of antsemitism. His responsibility isn't too dissimilar to Zelenky's... to defend his country in its existential fight against the axis of evil... a large chunk of the Arab world, Islamic extremists, ruzzia, Iran, Syria, NK... you know the ones, that cartel of thugs backing the destruction of Ukraine. If you support Ukraine, then you must support Israel. Anything else doesn't make sense. The lie that Jews are occupying some other people's land is akin to Putin's lies regarding Ukraine. The denial of the rights of an indiginous culture. The denial of their identity and of their history. Netanyahu using food as a leverage (assuming he did) isn't too dislimialar to Zelensky, destroying Russian oil refineries, and arguably justifiable. Why? Because both leaders are fighting the same fight, and if they lose, they lose everything.
Thank you
Another great video Jonathan
Thanks again!
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The discussion is making sense, Jonathan.
Support from Indonesia.
Good interview! I have a question about US oil prices and tge election: when I go to the US Energy Information Administration, the chart looks as though the US has not imported ANY oil from Russia after May 2022. So how would Ukraine blowing up refineries affect our oil prices during election 2024 ?
Thanks for your question! You are right that the US does not import oil from Russia, But oil is a globally-traded commodity, so prices are global. The price rises for all countries if supply from any country falls.
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But what about gAzA !?!?!?
A comparison of gdp is almost meaningless. Morale. Self sufficiency in food, energy and raw materials. Willingness to fight. Resiliance to adverse conditions. The proportion of gdp spent on the military. The military industrial base. All these factors are of essence. When you compare those, then the balance is much less favorable for the west. What does a high gdp mean, when it is mostly spent on men sitting behind a computer in a cozy office? When we have trouble producing enough nitrocellulose? When we are outproduced in shells by a factor 2 or 3? When our weapon systems are great, but also very expensive and produced in small numbers?
and do u know how fast WW2's american war production ramped up? When necessary, the stuff gets produced, u can rest assured. So it's a matter of deciding when.
It does have a matter. If we speak about China + Russia + Iran + Noth Korea Union and compare them to OECD countries, first ones are 3 times smaller in GDP, 2 times smaller in GDP PPP, are equal in territories (and resources), and 1.5 times more only in human resources. Technologies in the West are 3-20 years more advanced, attractiveness and world influence is higher and so on.
This is the case why China in USA - Chinese economic war began to use assymetric actions. War with the help of Proxy - USSR used this tactics, Russia, of course, and China today
USA cannot win economic war with China along also (Trump is just an Idiot), and Europe (wich is richer than USA in GDP PPP) must make it's own decision. All the world is awaiting of Europe decision.
Week people will let down Ukraine. 😢
and what about weekend people ? 😂
Finish American living in Finland I called this war in 2014 as soon as Putin invaded Crimea
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Maybe ask yourself, Why isn't UK or France buying supplies they need to give Ukraine. If they cared so much🤔
The day I saw DJT and the Russians in the Oval Office, sending the US translator out of the room, I was convinced he was a traitor. I called him the Traitor in The White House ever since.
@@williamkevinjames I believe the Helsinki Summit was in July 2018. Then Trump in August 2018 begins talking about the US buying Greenland from Denmark. April 2021 Putin formally enlarged its claim to the seabed in the Arctic Ocean all the way to Canada's and Greenland's (Denmark's) exclusive zones. A situation where they're claiming Canadian and Danish continental shelf as the Russian continental shelf.
There is no such thing as settlement with Russia.
I was doubly horrified by the 2014 invasion. First that Putin did invade. Second that the West's response was so weak. We thought common economic interests would preclude wars of aggression and discovered that common economic interests kept us from responding to aggression.
Why can’t the west do more? We are much bigger, richer, stronger, and we have the right on our side. Ukraine has a right to defend itself and we have the right to assist them in anyway we see fit.
You are absolutely right! 💙💛💙💛
There lies the problem.WE,think that it all ends,with WE.
Glad to support UKRAINE.
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I hope a lot of European leaders listens to this episode....
Thanks Johnathan... waiting for the Belgians to grow a pair and release the Russian assets embedded there
Putin "waiting for Trump" remarks I regard as unecessarily inflammatory and help drive domestic American division. Am jaw-dropped how so many erudite guests operate from fact and historical pattern and suddenly, almost superstitiously, deliver their token swipe at Trump. However, this channels host and content are worth the slings and arrows of variant slight 😊
@@williamkevinjames If you're referring to Putin's recent rigged election, Trump was to be found in court being harangued by yet another pearl-clutching accusation. But if by comeback you mean Russia's all out attack on Ukraine, well that occurred during Biden's administration. We must dispense of partisan superstition, it's wasting time and strategic sensibility.
48 million Ukraine people are going to run to Europe and Europe will have to pay for this
This gentleman speaks a lot of sense.
As experts in the English language, you surely know that "NOT positive" need not mean "negative." When Blinken issued his "NOT positive" to the press, Ukraine paused their attack on ruzzia's oil refineries. Then Blinken met privately with Zelenskyy, and afterward the attacks resumed. I believe that Blinken assured Zelenskyy that "NOT positive" can encompass "NOT negative."
I don’t think you can possibly know this. And it’s a rotten strategy in any case. It exudes weakness.
@@SiliconCurtain Yes but the West is constantly exuding weakness.
discontinue government with substantive human rights choice from God for divine central authority unity
Thank you for admitting that all of this is to keep the west's primary economic position. Thanks for the honesty in admitting its not about Ukraine but about the west.
@bradleyheights5905 the west pretends its all about helping Ukraine
It is both about Ukraine and ultimately the very real threat to European security should Russia win this war. I don't think there is any difficulty in having a moral position about the brutal assault on freedom and justice in Ukraine and at the same time recognising that for Putin this is a much wider conflict against the West.
Always appreciate the deeper than bog water discourse and the actual weight and character inside the issue surrounding Ukrainian destruction by the Russian thug Poo-tin.
Are there any security and freedoms still on the West? 🤓
You only has right to pay your bills on time😅
The Ukrainian city of Karkiv is being bombed to bits at this time. Are you ignoring this on purpose? The second largest city in Ukraine is falling. Where's the coverage???
You probably don't even realize that telegram is owned by the FSB....
Just because you CLAIM Kharkiv is falling does not mean that it is falling.
What is falling is any semblance of Russian legitimacy in international circles. You Russians have already lost, but continue to exert violence against truth and democracy.
What do you have to offer Ukraine?
Your rapes, your abductions, your nightly bombing of civilians.
Shame on you!
Jonathan's softly spoken propaganda ignores the facts, just listen to his latest guest liar
Our friend Joe Lindsley is in Kharkiv. We do not ignore it. Just explore the channel, more
Long live the West! SLAVA UKRAINE! from Italy ❤❤
Russia must not be allowed to win, Trump ✝️👍❤😊
Well…. John Mearscheimer has been spot on right for 10 years. I know that’s quite sinful in the present context but it’s true.
😂😂😂 hilarious, not.
you misspelled TRUMP....thank me later
I'm very proud of the white race. Lots of excellent channels around with white faces, digging deep and being valiant for the truth.
The crucial part is that they understand the details, they're not shy and they go public.
May they multiply greatly.
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Great interview. You should have Richard Wolff on sometime, I would like to see what would happen. I know my face almost blew up like a tomato just listening to that guy for a few minutes