Vlad Vexler - The Strategy the West Needs to Stop Putin's Aggression.
Vložit
- čas přidán 22. 05. 2024
- GUEST: Vlad Vexler, Social Philosopher, and popular CZcamsr.
If Putin's aggression towards Ukraine, Europe and NATO members is Relentless, then what should our strategy towards it be, to guarantee the future security and prosperity of Europe?
----------
It’s my pleasure today to welcome back onto the channel Vlad Vexler, Social Philosopher, and unique CZcamsr. Our previous three video conversations proved to be extremely popular, and a lot has happened since we last spoke. Please do check out Vlad’s channel on CZcams, as it has a collection of the most thought-provoking and insightful videos on the Russian mindset and the roots of this war.
----------
LINKS:
/ @vladvexler
/ @vladvexlerchat
----------
CHAPTERS:
00:00:00 Introduction to Vlad Vexler
00:02:01 Tone and strategy - Constructive critique by Vlad.
00:10:16 The differences between Twitter persona and CZcams
00:15:49 Emerging from the 'Ukrainian' bubble and its limitations
00:23:33 The need for radical change in strategic planning
00:32:08 Moral questions around Tucker Carlson's Moscow trip
00:42:25 Machinery of Putin's speech writing 'political technology' team
00:51:17 Putin's sense of victimhood amplified by propaganda voices
01:00:45 what are the lessons of Ukraine's multiple revolutions
01:07:12 Ukrainians understand that allies are not totally dependable
01:14:45 Is Ukrainian victory dependent on a Russian collapse?
----------
SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:
www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconc...
/ siliconcurtain
----------
TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:
Save Ukraine
www.saveukraineua.org/
Superhumans - Hospital for war traumas
superhumans.com/en/
UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukraine
unbroken.org.ua/
Come Back Alive
savelife.in.ua/en/
Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchen
wck.org/relief/activation-che...
UNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyy
u24.gov.ua/
Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation
prytulafoundation.org
NGO “Herojam Slava”
heroiamslava.org/
kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and Przemyśl
kharpp.com/
NOR DOG Animal Rescue
www.nor-dog.org/home/
----------
PLATFORMS:
Twitter: / curtainsilicon
Instagram: / siliconcurtain
Podcast: open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6...
Linkedin: / finkjonathan
Patreon: / siliconcurtain
----------
Welcome to the Silicon Curtain podcast. Please like and subscribe if you like the content we produce. It will really help to increase the popularity of our content in CZcams’s algorithm. Our material is now being made available on popular podcasting platforms as well, such as Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Vlad is an absolute gem of a human being❤
He’s also a little full of himself. Anyways, Jonathan keeps it interesting. Respect.
I like him even if I disagree on some of his positions. Iam convinced he is a great lad to have an intelligent discussion with
You two should get married in your ivory tower.
An example of a conversation I would love to be the standard of discourse everywhere.
Australia here/ Don't we all.
American citizen here, who the friendly staff of my district U.S. representative recognized my voice today, I call often. 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼🇮🇱
❤
❤❤
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
czcams.com/video/_Yr0HNTBLSs/video.htmlfeature=shared
Keep calling friend
15mins in. What you guys just did and the way you dealt with it is the epitome of civil discussion.
Well said.
It has been a most excellent discussion!
Vlad - great as always ❤ Thank you 🙂 🇵🇱♥️🇺🇦
I found your channel because of the first time you had Vlad Vexler as a guest! And I watch all your videos!
My 2 most favoured intellectuals. Thank you.
Is Jonathan an intellectual?
Just two very eloquent people engaged in a conversation.
@@user-bq4te7kw3b Yes he is! A very thoughtful, pragmatic and intelligent one!!👏👍
Love both these guys :) triple collab with Konstantin? 🇺🇦
Yes! With Konstantin and Anna too!!
Best channel since i understand English !
Jonathan and Vlad, you’re awesome 👏🏼
Thanks to the both of you !
🇺🇦❤️🖤
Cool pic
Yes! Two of my favorites! Discussing the world’s most boring evil!
'Boring' is the new 'banal', you heard it here first!
@@RuneDrageon that already meant that! ordinary is banal is boring.
@@RuneDrageonBeing witty is not the new banal, just the same old...
@@pontusmalmstrom1055 It was a play on words with Hannah Arendts 'Banality of evil' in relation to the totalitarianism of the Nazis.
@@RuneDrageon Also the earlier feudal word was ''bannal'', a lord's mill, as in a ''bannal mill'', that was common to all for use.
Sincere respect to You and our Vlad, dear Jonathan.
Two of my favourite human beings discussing the most important world problem,thanks fellers👍🇬🇧🇺🇦
👍👍👍
Always a pleasure to hear you both in conversation.
Thank you, Jonathan and Vlad. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
Been waiting for this one. Vlad is a perfect guest speaker for the channel 👍
Excellent episode - Vlad is always a welcome voice of sanity.
This was a much better interview than the long rambling interview I watched with the ‘other Vlad’.
@treesetc3305 You most likely do not have the mental capacity needed to understand what the "other Vlad" said or meant.
Vlad the thoughtful voice of reason thank you for your insight
Jonathan, have you ever interviewed Jake Broe? He is an ex-military US veteran and fully supports Ukraine.
Jonathan has interviewed Jake - and it was Excellent!
🇺🇦🌞💙🌻🌾🌾🌾
He has! ❤
@stephie52 That immediately proves how absurd your thinking is. You want him to interview somebody who thinks like you. You do love your bubble where everybody thinks the same. Very comfortable giving you the feedback you expect. Why don't you have the courage to listen to somebody who does not think like you and then judge if you are right or wrong.?
Cold War barracks mentality in Russia never ended. That was clear to me back in the 1990s but we loved the collective high (and naive peace dividend) from believing so. Soviet legacy was never crushed and judged like the Third Reich. And since the Russians acquired nukes (unlike Nazi Germany) it was always impossible to dismantle the Soviet mindset. Strange how the end of the USSR and emergence of Russia has brought the world closer to nuclear disaster than ever before.
You are very correct.
I spent time in Russia then,
and the mentality is deeply rooted. Nothing in reality had
changed. The exact same ship,
with a new mafia captain
Expect for a thin sliver of the Intelligentsia, Russians have *never* stopped being serfs. They exchange a Czar for a Commissar
Indeed. The journeys Germany and Japan have made since 1945 are what one would like to see in Russia.
There are (at least) two conditions that need to exist for this to be possible.
1. Defeat of the Russian state.
2. Disciplin and a sense of loyalty to the collective among the population.
Even if Russia was to be totally defeated, I doubt the culture posesses the determination to adhere to a political vision of democracy and equal opportunities.
I made a few business trips to Russia in the late 90s and was rather alarmed at the inhumane nature of their society and their utterly absurd rewriting of the WW2.
@@coopoylozenge5964 Their "great patriotic war", starting by raping Finland and splitting up Poland between themselves and Nazi Germany. Only to see Hitler stab them in the back and launch a full scale invasion. The "Russians" of Ukraine being the ones to take the major hit, right after Stalin had his way with them in the 30's.
Nice people the Russians, not! (Although, admittedly, Stalin was from Georgia.)
I am so very happy I have found you two gentle men. Please keep going. And thank you.
Jonathon--your point @ 15:20 about a lack of strategy--spot on!
@robertroot3790 Nobody had a strategy in the Western world, the Brits following the US direction, the EU following an unelected president commissioner called Ursula VonderLeyen, NATO following the US lead.
It amonts to brainless gaming that killed 1/2 a million Ukrainians, destroyed their country, caused 2 million refugees and left Ukraine without a young generation. And the cynics want even more money to be invested because they can't afford to lose face and admit reality. Keep listening to Vlad, it will serve you well.
Im subbed to all of Vlads channels, good man
Vlad Vexler is definitely one of the wisest people online today.
He has the ability to make bs seem true
@@gmw3083 What "bs" exactly, and why? Or are you just trolling?
@guydreamr 17:28 so begins vlads impossible fantasy
@@guydreamr 25:27 "I treat experts as sacred." Unless they're John Mearsheimer, Douglas MacGregor, Scott Ritter, or any other expert who says things I don't like...
@@guydreamr I had a better timestamped quote from later in the video. It disappeared from the other thread. These two remained...
Thank you both for existing and allow us to witness your conversation !
Thank you for having Vlad back. He has taught me to think in 3d. Aussie Sue
Always glad to listen to Vladimir!
Hello Beautiful Communities! Great discussion you two. Many thanks
America has become something I don’t recognize anymore as a democracy. If we continue down this road. I’m losing hope in people’s ability to discern truth from fiction and outright lies. We seem to following in Russias footsteps not Europes. And that is giving Putin and fascism so much oxygen it’s frightening.
Love it! Keep going strong mr Fink. We will prevail.
One of my notions is that social media has no sense of proportion. It appears to be a conversation but that's an illusion of virtual reality. There is none of the concrete reality of conversation, the body language, nuance of expression, smell or taste.
It's a pitfall of our social being that we can be blind to the difference.
Have you ever read a book? Where is the "concrete reality" by which I assume you mean the senzorial aspect of conversation if you were reading this? You're asking for senzorial from an audio video environment? Were you high when you wrote this comment?
It’s quite remarkable actually when (if you have seen it) Twitter hawkish personalities end up having an in person debate on CZcams or by live stream - it’s almost like they exist in a different parallel universe because as you say the way that exchange goes is usually far far less aggressive, and far more charitable and productive.
@@larsvaahlmar1784I mean your comment/reply is sort of a good example of what he is talking about isn’t it - if we were in person in real life you probably wouldn’t talk like that to someone making a quite unobjectionable, general observation about social media , or question if they are intoxicated by drugs.
Yes everyone that has opinion of their own is on drugs. I agree though the guy is reading script and talking circles n saying nothing. IMO poutine is ded they just delaying their collapse
@@euromoneysOf course, you lack the intellectual rigour to comprehend the deep thoughts and advanced discourse displayed by Vlad. They’re leagues above you! SMH. 🤦🏼♂️
a very powerful conversation from both of you! How incredibly inciiteful
Vlad is awesome with his awesome insights about the mind and soul of Russian world!
Thank you for your help
Thank you both for your integrity and sustained efforts! I hope we all think more about what we can further do to help Ukraine, its region and the international “order” in which such an extreme, agonizing war has happened.
Lovely to see two of my favourite CZcamsrs together. Slava Ukrani 🇺🇦❤️🇺🇦
"conflict can be a form of cooperation" is a great value
I watch you Jonathan 😊 Thank you for your guests and Vlad is another channel I watch.
I love Vlad to death but a conversation with him can be best described by the Beatles song”All Around The Universe”
talking to philosophers can be like that
Merci Vlad et Jonathan excellent discours
👍👍👍
Vlad is doing a great service to philosophy. And illuminating the places where we can go to look for the insights we need to begin formulating the questions we need to ask.
Great discussion, and I want to point out that both of you gave each other a lot of space to give long, detailed answers without interrupting each other. So many interviews get derailed because otherwise interesting people don't have self-control.
Thank you from New Zealand for the intelligent depth of this conversation!
Most cordial exchange between two powerful information warriors!
oh! my two favorites ! Wonderful! Thank you.
Slava Ukraine ❤ 🇺🇦
pryrechenistʹ na Rosiyu
Heroyam Slava 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇧🇧
I really love the first 15 minutes so far!!! Really loved the critique and acknowledgement. Very grown up and very very refreshing. I am so proud of you both so much.
Bravo!
2 great humans
YOU ARE WONDERFUL, brilliant and sweet. I want to send hugs to you both. So informative! Thx
What a strong and comical opening from Vlad. Ballsy even. Contrasts so heavily with his relaxed tone. You both do fantastic work.
Sweet!! My two favorite content creators in a thoughtful exchange if ideas. Something I value in a video is leaving it with something to think about. This video was a banquet of food for thought. Thank you so much!
Awesome! Thank you!
Excellent discoure, one of your best podcasts ever
👍👍👍
We must stand up to him. No appeasement. He can only be stopped by force.
Didn't you hear Vlad? We have to change the _International Order_ first
Afraid you are right, their culture does not allow them to not conquer. Any change is internal with external guidance and will take 3-4 generations to purge out the old and to just begin with the new.
Wait or immediately decimate empires like Romans, Hannibal, Golden Hordes etc. but they just didn't change actively, the people who were in charge died off and new people effected change. Just ask history. The not so good empires were replaced and new bad start ups also faces the same thing, ask that guy Adolph.
I agree partly. Only force makes sense in a mind like that. Crimea must be retaken and defended. That will shake up the gameboard (so to say). It will balance the weight of concerns on both sides (east/west). When that balance is achieved maybe discussions can occure (balance of concerns may, in that context, be aquated with balance of power (like the cold war))
Вам плевать на мнение крымчан по этому поводу? @@stefanandersson9616
@americanidle76 And meantime what should be done with the Southern border. I know; you are one of those Americans who are more interested in Ukraine than in the USA.
I always feel that personal criticism (even well meant and politely delivered) is best served in private.
Visceral conversation around trust and audience capture in our informational environment is not personal criticism. It is vital public discourse.
Except when criticizing a public figure, who's personality exists, and is expressed, within the public realm. And in that vein, CZcams personalities, particularly those with subscriber bases and viewer bases in the 10's of thousands, hundred's of thousands and/or million's, certainly are public figures/public personalities, even if within only a certain bubble. And Vlad did that in the most well meant, and most polite, not to mention sincere and effective, manner imaginable. As well, it was delivered KNOWING the recipient would be receptive of, and acknowledge such criticism. As Johnathan was, and did.
Both parties offered a masterclass of criticism, well served, and well received, publicly.
The balloons at 1.05 are hilarious 😂
Very interesting discussions.
Thank you both.
RESPECT,
WE LOVE VLAD, DANGER OF OVER INFLATION,.
YOU MAY SPEAK, I SHALL LISTEN.
GREAT SHOE, SOUTH PHILADELPHIA, OUT🔱⭐.
Thank you Jonathan! Another great interview! This is my 1st. time hearing Vlad 's take on where things stand. I look forward to hearing more thoughts from him on this subject.
👍👍👍
I always love these highly insightful and educational interviews. Thank you!
Always good to listen to you both. A civilized and respectful opening too! 🇸🇪💙💛🇺🇦
what a great conversation. Keep up the great work
Thanks, two of my favourite people on one podcast! Any chance of getting Alexander Stubb since he has become president of Finland?
Great suggestion - I’ll try!
rizzia never was punished on their crimes - external and internal. This is major cause of the war.
That includes their entire history of crimes.
@@user-ek9go3kf2wWhat crimes?
😂😂😂.who punished usa for iraq invasion?
What about -
Yup. The law has been broken for mates. Just listen to Elon Musk for a minute, look at his interests for a minute, and you can see what is really going on.
This is a comment because i love Vlad, love the content being promoted here, love the charities here. Thank you so much.
It’s funny but until now, I completely forgot why I unsubscribed from Vlad’s channel and his lovely community. And it may be hard to put it in words, but first 13 minutes of conversation reminded me why …I don’t understand his prolonged thinking, his whole persona is indigestible to me. So all in all, I am listening to „silicon curtain” nearly every single day, but today I need to make an exception. Great channel, great guests ( mostly), thank you
It just occurred to me that Vlad's constant going on about how he fears democracy decline in the west actually is a russian propaganda talking point of sorts. He sneakily sows the distrust he fears. Maybe we should check up on his sponsors?
I would like to invite you to invest a little effort to get past Vlad's persona (which I fully understand can get on people's nerves) to his messages.
They are an extremely important contribution. Like in this very case, where Jonathan's rightful anger at the Russian aggression led him to lose his cool and make divisive comments within the realm of democratic debate.
Fully agree. If I had a friend or colleague who waited until the tape started recording to dedicate 15 minutes for a drawn out critique of me for two tweets I made I would not be impressed. Strange individual. My respect for Jonathan went up a tonne though as he dealt with it very well and with humility.
Vlad walks his viewers through his process of thinking in a prolonged way because his aim as a political philosopher is to encourage people to deeply reflect on and improve their ways of thinking about a given situation, rather than his primary aim being to persuade us to adopt a certain opinion. He also has pretty severe ME which means he's often slower at articulating what he's trying to say than he otherwise would be. If you are able to adjust to the slower pace he has the most thought provoking content I've seen on CZcams by miles!
@@horrisnorris6478 To be honest I don't think he even talks at a slow pace, he just speaks normally, like a normal person would in a normal conversation at the dinner table, in a lecture or down the pub.
I can only think perhaps that complaints stem merely from the fact that he *isn't* following that hyperactive, CZcams-y, never-stopping-to-take-a-breath-or-wonder-what-the-point-was style that seems overly prevalent on this and similar online platforms. (And yes, I'm fully aware that makes me sound like a moany old man. But it's also a real phenomenon!)
It's like the number of people who I've seen online (in all sorts of different places and contexts, so it's not unique to any specific community) who say they play online videos at faster speed as a matter of course through the video settings: I don't understand it. I generally don't hold much truck with vague complaints of youngsters these days having short attention spans/not reading books anymore/playing too many video games/all of that sort of stuff. But the video speed impatience is a concrete thing, and it's genuinely baffling!
❤ from 🇨🇦
Certainly raising issues, I for one had not given thought to.
Thank you for a such intelligent, balanced and reasoned discussion.
I am even more convinced now, as I thought previously,
that the stall in capability supplies to Ukraine, was a definite choice,to limit military exuberance and somewhat slow a sudden regime collapse
This is a magnificent, real conversation and exploration of the most foundational issues facing the world today. I would like to think about this more deeply and respond right now, but it is 2:00 am and my 76 y.o. Brain is exhausted, so I will return in the morning. On another note, all of my 5 or so favorite analysts of the Ukrainian crisis, and the world’s response, are becoming noticeably more sophisticated, knowledgeable and seasoned in their presentation of the issues, events, and policies they are engaged with daily. I will return to this tomorrow. But my thanks to both of you.
Love Vlad. Thank you!
Two great guys ...
Thank you✌🏻 🇬🇧
SLAVA UKRAINI 🔱🇺🇦
HEROYAM SLAVA 🇺🇦🔱✌🏻
Jonathan and Vlad, this made my day. Yesterday, the Senate finally passed the aid to Ukraine. That was a good day as well.
Coming in from Vlad Vexler’s audience, this was very interesting ❤
"We are all living with an informationa disability." Well said!!
Seeing you on Silicon curtain AGAIN made me the happiest this week!
Watching you two individually makes my head work to keep up. Together my head is working overtime. I very much enjoy it.
USA´s greed to bring it´s weapons near to Russia via new NATO members is the real root to this war. BTW, who wants to be helping to a country(Ukraine) which kept killing civilians(russian language speakers) since 2014 ? It is like someone would start helping to a person who started with killing people.......( Russia is helping to civilians in Donbas since those civilians were killed by thousands since 2014) What is the point in this video? It is empty talking only....
I’ve not been on Twitter since 2018 and find it useless.
it's difficult but it's literally the only way i can get true views of: news, political affairs, social affairs. There's no substitute for Twitter unfortunately. Tha'ts why a reactionary bought it, to try to either grow it or manipulate it.
@@18_rabbit I found it too toxic and not informative enough.
@@18_rabbitWrong, it’s a TOXIC environment. Full of lies and hatred. You can easily get the pulse of the situation with a combination of other platforms, without supporting that nonsense that is “X”, 🙄. Quite fitting that people have resorted to calling tweets “excretions” IMHO!
@SiliconCurtain Dear Jonathan, Vlad made a brilliant and valuable opening move and you responded well to it.
This is a great example how open, constructive conversations can be held even when one hears things about oneself that may hurt one's ego.
However, @VladVexler in your opening move you mentioned prof. dr. John Mearsheimer, and I sighed, thinking:
"There we go again, Mearsheimer is being mentioned, but won't be debunked.
Another missed opportunity for doing this. It's not that difficult, yet, nobody does it."
Granted, debunking Mearsheimer was not the point that Vlad was making. It would have detracted from it.
Granted, Vlad published a short video on his chat channel on March 10, 2022 rightfully stating in it that this would require a long video.
However, that long video never came, whereas both of you in your videos show your opposition to Mearsheimer's views.
Frankly, you can't do this indefinitely. If you don't know whom to interview or what to write to counter Mearsheimer's theory and assertions, then stop mentioning him.
Now, it's like venting your frustration and thereby you unconsciously lend him credibility, which he does deserve, but not in the way Mearsheimer anno 2024 would welcome.
You're both very busy combining the tons of work for your channels with the rest of your lives.
So let me help you a bit by offering you some novel avenues to debunk Mearsheimer with the help of none other than dr. John Mearsheimer himself as a starter, at least the Mearsheimer of 1993.
Two years after the breakup of the USSR and in the very midst of Bill Clinton pressuring Ukraine to hand over its nukes to Russia, Mearsheimer publicly voiced strong opposition to Ukraine handing over its nukes, because this would almost inevitably lead to yet another Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Source: John Mearsheimer "The case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent" in "Foreign Affairs" Vol. 72, No. 3, Summer 1993, pp. 50-66.
I quote from Mearsheimer's opening statements:
"A nuclear Ukraine makes sense for two reasons. First, it is imperative to maintain peace between Russia and Ukraine. [...]
Ukraine cannot defend itself against a nuclear-armed Russia with conventional weapons, and no state, including the United States, is going to extend to it a meaningful security guarantee.
Ukrainian nuclear weapons are the only reliable deterrent to Russian aggression.
Second, [...] pursuing a confrontation with Ukraine over the nuclear issue raises the risks of war by making the Russians mor daring, the Ukrainians more fearful, and the Americans less able to defuse a crisis between them."
And further in his article a prophetic warning for if one was not to head to his advice:
"A war between Russia and Ukraine would be a disaster. Great power wars are very costly and dangerous, causing massive loss of life and worldwide turmoil, and possibly spreading to involve other countries. The likely result of that war - Russia's reconquest of Ukraine - would injure prospects for peace throughout Europe. It would increase the danger of a Russian-German collision [...]
A conventional war between Russia and Ukraine would entail vast military casualties and the possible murder of many thousands of civilians. Russians and Ukrainians have a history of mutual enmity; this hostility, combined with the intermixing of their populations, raises the possibility that war between them could entail Bosnian-style ethnic cleansing and mass murder. [refugee streams to Europe]
In addition, there are 14 operational nuclear reactors in Ukraine that might produce new Chernobyls if left unattended or attacked during a conventional war. The consequences of such a war would dwarf the death and suffering in the Balkans [+50k deaths]
There's also the threat of escalation [...] For example, the Russians might decide to reconquer other parts of the former Soviet Union in the midst of a war, or might tray to take back some of Eastern Europe. [...]
Unlike the Mearsheimer we have since 2014-2015, this younger Mearsheimer details why a Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely, despite that they were rather stable at that time:
1) Russian and Ukrainian security fears leading to Mearsheimer's classic view of great power competition;
2) "The danger of hypernationalism, the belief that other nations or nation states are both inferior and threatening and must therefore be dealt with harshly."
Then he describes their common history of the last few centuries as an "explosive psychological backdrop".
3) A host of disputes are already on the horizon and: "Furthermore, many Russians would change the present border with Ukraine, and some even reject the idea of an independent Ukraine. Senior Russian officials, for example, have recently been describing Ukraine's independence as a 'transitional' phenomenon and have been warning other European governments not to open embassies in Kiev [Kyiv] because they would soon be downgraded to consular sections subordinate to their embassies in Moscow."
[Sic. This is 1993, under the first presidency of Boris Yeltsin with no Putin in sight yet!]
4) The problem of mixed populations on both countries.
And then Mearsheimer again goes on to explain why no non-nuclear deterrent would work in the long run.
So why do we see since 2014-2015 Mearsheimer take exactly the opposite stance of his 22 year younger self?
Did he change his theory of international relations? No, it was and still is "Offensive Realism".
However, what did change him as a person afterwards was that he dire warnings against Bush Jr invading Afghanistan, and especially Iraq, fell on deaf ears.
And, if I remember it correctly, something similar applies to his warnings about the peace process between Israel and Palestine.
Those issues must have revived the rebellious son who had to go from his father to West Point and serve for five years as an officer, whereas his heart wasn't in it.
In some way his article of 1993 was also an act of rebellion against the foreign policy establishment in Washington.
It's one thing to rebel, and even to change one's views, but at least Mearsheimer should explain why he changed his stance on why he still blames the war in Ukraine on the West, but not because of the arguments he now gives, but because we forced Ukraine to relinquish its nukes, despite the clear signs in 1993 that one day the Russian bear would attack Ukraine again.
Alas, Mearsheimer remains utterly silent on this, and does not get challenged for this by his fellow International Relations Policy experts.
Alas, Mearsheimer also suffers from selection bias when he presents his data to make his case that NATO expansion and so-called Western interference in the Revolution of Dignity led to the war in Ukraine.
Yet despite this, Mearsheimer's accurate warning for a pending Russian-Ukrainian war at a time when only Edward Lucas voiced similar concerns, should let us give his theory of Offensive Realism a closer look, and not limit ourselves to Vlad's position that Mearsheimer has a way too high altitude view that leads to a way too low resolution picture.
In essence Mearsheimer claims that every country strives to maximize its power, its fortunes, because it cannot trust any other country, because they're all doing the same. So, we're doomed like the mafia families. You never know when you'll be attacked or stabbed in the back by whom.
Mearsheimer has a case when it comes to authoritarian regimes on the Eurasian continent. Putin cannot really trust his pal Xi resisting his temptation to recapture the long lost harbour of Vladivostok and its surrounding provinces, for instance.
However, Mearsheimer is wrong when it comes to the maritime democracies, especially the ones with island or peninsula features.
France does no longer have to fear that the UK will once invade it again, and certainly not the USA.
Contrary to what Mearsheimer claims, in such cases the issue is just the opposite: the fear of being dumped (not attacked or preyed upon) by one's allies.
See the issue we now have with America's financial and military support to Ukraine.
This is not a novel issue. Napoleon kept on attacking Wellington at Waterloo, despite the unfavorable terrain, because he knew that unlike the North Germans whom he just had beaten back, Wellington was tempted to pull back to Ostend and ship back to England in case of a defeat.
So, the selfish drive can be similar, but the risk of unwelcome behaviour is exactly the opposite: letting you down versus attacking you.
Does this mean that Mearsheimer's axiomatic underpinnings are correct?
No, Mearsheimer's negative view of the selfish behaviour of every country is based on Hobbes Leviathan.
This is an pessimistic view of mankind and statehood by Hobbes from 1651 where the natural state of man is one of war of all against all.
One can understand this for someone who just came out of the English civil war.
However, I cannot agree with a scientist using this as the basis for his theory in the last three decades of our time.
Primatologists, psychologists, and sociologists have found over and over again that we, humans, are social animals who have a fundamental need to cooperate, not to wage war on each other. This is what made our species evolve into what we are now.
Wars can be explained by theories about emergence, or game theory, and so on.
However, all this would require Mearsheimer to develop a far more nuanced basis claim on which then to build a way more diverse theory of international relations.
Alas, he's not open to this, and so becomes a caricature of himself.
He who in one lecture challenged his students to develop their own theories by being good at picking a strong basis from an outside discipline on which to build further, for instance as he did with Hobbes.
Sad.
I read this earlier article by meersheimer and found it extraordinarily prescient. My comments on Twitter were design to draw attention to his recent ramblings, and possible conflicts of interest- especially with links to Hungary. But my language on Twitter tends to be more robust (angry guy in the pub persona). I can see what Vlad means, that the tone of language used may mask the impact of its message…
@@SiliconCurtain I think that you could be more effective by dedicating a Silicon Bytes to Mearsheimer's 1993 article: "Debunking Mearsheimer with Mearsheimer", than by tweeting about it.
You've now a sufficiently big audience on CZcams to create a rippling effect, and with the recent developments in the US this is needed.
Oh, and don't forget that in that article Mearsheimer proposed that the only country in Europe that should become a nuclear power is Germany.
As if the Poles, Czechs, Dutch or Danes would be comfortable with such a development and wouldn't go nuclear themselves.
We, Belgians, we would have relied on our other neighbours: the French and the Brits with their nuclear arsenal to protect us (as usual), but the others...? No way.
Anyhow, there are more issues with Mearsheimer's theory.
For instance, he really believes that the US can concentrate its forces in the US and in case of a major conflict in which it wants to be involved, move its forces over.
Well, that worked in WW2 on the Western front, thanks to Britain as a huge logistical basis.
In the Pacific, however, the island hopping was slow and bloody before one could reach Japan for an invasion.
Nowadays with all those long range precision missiles and drones, forget it that it would be as "easy" as it was back then.
It has become far more difficult, but Mearsheimer has become oblivious to this.
Strange for a scholar who was once so prescient.
@@pierresaelen3097”Island hopping” or anything like it is unthinkable given the reality of modern missile technology. It also makes a forced invasion of Taiwan by China a much more daunting prospect for them than it would have been in the mid-20th century. China could certainly devastate Taiwan if it wanted to, but an occupation would be very, very difficult.
Taiwan could do a lot of damage in the other direction, too, not that they have an increasingly large supply of missiles utilizing western AND Soviet-style technology. They could quite possibly cripple or destroy the Three Gorges Dam, for instance. Chinese food and fresh water supplies are VERY vulnerable.
@@grahamstrouse1165 Correct.
However, the CCP's leadership thinks differently.
The CZcamsr Lei's Real Talk has dedicated several videos in which she explains how Mao and Deng have used wars to their benefit, even when they knew that they would or could lose them.
As Mao once said: "300 million Chinese more or less, who cares?"
The core driver in their decision making is the endless and ruthless power struggle at the CCP's top.
And Xi is even more isolated than Putin.
I wouldn't dare to bet that he won't invade Taiwan.
In this regard, Ukraine and Putin's ultimate fate is one of the few external factors that might scare him off.
Anyhow, Mearsheimer has to rethink his tenet that the USA can pull all its troops back home and intervene on another continent when things really call for it.
The USA will never be able to do that in time in case of Taiwan, even in an invasion operation where most of the initial Chinese invasion force would drown.
how nice to see Vlad here again :) One of my two favorite channels intersecting.
Thank you both for your insights
🇬🇧🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🏴🇺🇦🇪🇺
Great insights from the both of you. Thanks for this from the Netherlands 👍🌈
Great show love vlads stuff his latest video is awesome must watch !!
That was great
To be analysed by Vlad
I learned alot
I have watched you everyday since the start
To me you were the outside world finally seeing Russia for it's horror
This was a great discussion. Thank both of you.
Outstanding conversation - sober and well-informed. So crucial amidst all the hysterical noise. Thank you both.
Much appreciated both,keep on keeping on.. 🤍✨️🌻
Your both a credit to yourselves and to me you're both honest people, even if we occasionally show we are human.
Excellent all the way through. Intelligent discussion that made me think.
Thank you Jonathan and Vlad soo much! 🌞💙 It’s refreshing to see an alliance of many pro-Ukrainian voices on social media! How can you use this collective power to puncture the main stream media bubble?!?
This focus on Puitin's state of mind seems to me like talk therapy in psychology. It might be helpful but there is a tendency for it to go on forever and become self-indulgent. In contrast cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) focuses on immediate strategies that produce measurable results.
To that end, i prefer assessments of Putin and Russia that analyze observable outcomes.
I also prefer conversations that abstract him somewhat and focus on what strategies "we" can employ that will produce measurable results.
After seeing just 3 of Vlad's videos, I knew I'd stumbled upon a truly great mind. He is **systematically** stepping back for perspective, even when most of us are stuck in an emotional mud pit. Seeing him on here again is not just satisfying, it is actually JUST that he should get the exposure. Such an amazing Human.
12:30
When Vlad says "proud of each other" and "conflict can be a mutually elevating enterprise". Right there, right there. That is a GREEN flag if there ever was one. "We push each other up". I have so much respect for Vlad. ❤
The theatricity of discourse. How great!How direct and honest.
I love you both, thank you💙💛
Jonathan is very humble, good and intelligent human being ❤
EXCELLENT INTERVIEW!!!!!
...Your interviews always are, but this was - for me - extremely timely.
Thank you.
bravo! Vex had tremendously interesting ideas, and that last part that included that Ukr needs to make itself relatively indispensible to many countries and perhaps especially to powerful countries, is very spot on, and it can be linked to the econ powerhouse that Ukr could become and likely will.
I feel strongly that Ukraine will become the new World Center of Democracy. 🇺🇦
Wow. News flash. That's what they have been doing for centuries. Wasn't he aware of that?
@18_rabbit The plans for Ukraine were already decided a long time ago in Brussels (NATO headquarters) and Washington.
Ukraine is supposed to battle the Russians to their last soldier not to develop into an economic powerhouse. Germany was the powerhouse of the European continent and is no more. So do you expect a destroyed Ukraine to be the new Germany. Descend on the real earth dear lovely community member.
🇬🇧❤🇺🇦
Very useful discussion. Thanks
Fantastic interview. Thank you for sharing. This is the insight that more in the west, particularly our leaders, need to be hearing. Some of them lack any sense of realpolitik.
👍👍👍
@@SiliconCurtain Still laughing over how Putin fcked himself with that comment about Poland allegedly starting WW2 by not being nice enough to Hitler. Set off alarm bells all over Europe, encouraged his US lackey to say he'd let Russia take NATO territories that don't pay their dues. They could not have done a better job of dipping themselves in sht.
Ha! Normally I listen to these in the background... Just happened to be paying attention at 1:05:38... Nice!
What was that! Accidental balloons 🎈floating across the screen? 🤔
At 48:27 too. I don't get it.
Yay! 2 of my most favourite CZcamsrs together being brilliant. Thank you!