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Spot on the mark. Biden has been terrible for fair trade relations. Ultimately hurting the US.

I honestly doubt it, there's simply too many people in Trump's camp that have made a career on being anti-China who would make sure to derail any attempt at finding common ground with China. They were the ones who concocted the arrest of Huawei's CEO behind Trump's back, who got Trump to sign the executive order on export controls that started the tech war against China, etc. They have now upped the ante and are calling for complete decoupling and all-out containment of China. Being "tough" against China has become the easiest way to score political points in the US and, like Biden, Trump would not want to be seen as "weak" against China so he would ultimately go along with whatever his team pushes for...

Interesting Outlook you might be right

Although your considerations seem to be quite reasonable, they can be doubted when this simple question should be answered with "No": Is Donald Trump intellectually able to develop long-term lasting concepts (and stick to them as long as he is US-president)? If not, it is a bad idea to let him "solve" problems on a month-to-month basis just with "deals".

Hi Marcel, thank you for sharing your thoughts. In parts I agree but I think overall it’s very “wishful thinking”…. The kind of “it cannot get worse than Biden in terms of US-China relations”thinking. This narrative about Trump II - that Chinese assume they would be able to reason with Trump as they have before (Trump at core = a dealmaker and businessman) - from my point of view entirely oversees the political and ideological reality of where the US is headed (policy agenda - project 2025). China has become a bipartisan “enemy”… the common ground for the administration no matter what president sits in the White House (interesting statistic: by PEW). Also, where are the negotiators and deal makers from the Trump I era? For instance of the ‘phase one deal’? On the Chinese side the diplomatic “mastermind behind the deal” (SMCP) Liu He isn’t there anymore and on the US side there are few former Trump aides left. Steve Mnuchin is currently busy trying to buy TikTok, other negotiators like Trump’s #1 China hawk (much involved in phase 1) Peter Navarro are currently imprisoned. He is one of few that hasn’t fallen out with Trump … so perhaps he could be part of the less ideological Trump II administration? The economist (!) recently wrote: “In written correspondence with The Economist, Mr Navarro has laid out how he thinks Mr Trump should approach trade-from turning up the heat on China to slapping tariffs on just about everyone else. It is a dark, angry vision for the global economy. As polls stand, it is one Mr Navarro may shortly be able to promote from inside the White House”…. The articles goes on: “Mr Navarro’s prescription is to prevent third countries from being used as conduits for Chinese goods. “Vietnam is a major shadow export platform for ‘Made in China’ and invites a crackdown,” he says. He also warns that Mexico may imperil the free-trade agreement between it, America and Canada if it accepts too much Chinese investment. “Mr Trump simply won’t tolerate a Communist Chinese beachhead on America’s southern flank,” he says. More of the Trump-Navarro ideology can be read in his forthcoming book“The New MAGA Deal” (Source: Economist / www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/06/11/donald-trumps-trade-hawk-is-plotting-behind-bars). What I do get is that China expects a worsening in the transatlantic partnership if Trump is elected in November. Tensions between the US and the EU could lead to improved EU-China relations. That’s reasonable to believe… perhaps shortsighted as it is not in the EU’s nor China’s interest if one global super power (US) is unwilling to fulfill its global governance responsibilities (tackling climate change). I am convinced that assuming that Trump II is going to be less ideological ignores the campaign’s (and Heritage Foundation Project 2025’s) proposed policy agenda. Yes, Biden has been tougher on China than Trump I (and it’s hawkishness is predominantly pushed by the administration / Verwaltungsapparat) but it’s not set in stone that Trump II would be anything like the first legislation. In fact this is very much unlikely. It is probable that we will less of the old school deal making conservatives, as aforementioned many have fallen out with Trump. Other, such as former White House aides and ideological partisans - like Mike Meadows and Stephan Miller - are behind the “Mandate for Leadership,” the Heritage Foundation’s extensive manifesto for overhauling the executive branch (Source: CNN / edition.cnn.com/2024/07/11/politics/trump-allies-project-2025/index.html). The Project 2025 mentions China 483 times….this is an excerpt from page 12/13: “[…] A broad array of challenges facing the American people and the next conservative President: supranational policymaking, border security, globalization, engagement with China, manufacturing, Big Tech, and Beijing-compromised colleges. But these really are not many issues, but two: (1) that China is a totalitarian enemy of the United States, not a strategic partner or fair competitor, and (2) that America’s elites have betrayed the American people. The solution to all of the above problems is not to tinker with this or that government program, to replace this or that bureaucrat. These are problems not of technocratic efficiency but of national sovereignty and constitutional governance. We solve them not by trimming and reshaping the leaves but by ripping out the trees-root and branch. International organizations and agreements that erode our Constitution, rule of law, or popular sovereignty should not be reformed: They should be abandoned. […] Economic engagement with China should be ended, not rethought. Our manufacturing and industrial base should be restored, not allowed to deteriorate further. Confucius Institutes, TikTok, and any other arm of Chinese propaganda and espionage should be outlawed, not merely monitored. Univer- sities taking money from the CCP should lose their accreditation, charters, and eligibility for federal funds.” - (Heritage Foundation P.12/13 www.project2025.org/) The last time the Heritage Foundation was as engaged in a presidential race was during the first Reagan campaign (1980). The conservative think tank provided the Raegan team with detailed policy recommendations. Their then as also today called "Mandate for Leadership” (1100 pages long), was described by United Press International back then as "a blueprint for grabbing the government by its frayed New Deal lapels and shaking out 48 years of liberal policy." The new president used "Mandate" to help realize his vision of a world free of communism, an economy that didn't crush people's dreams with high taxes and regulations, and an America the world could admire once again. He gave copies to every member of his Cabinet. The result: [Within the first year of the inauguration in 1981] nearly two-thirds of "Mandate's" 2,000 recommendations were adopted or attempted by the Reagan administration.” (Source: Heritage but can be found on the Reagan foundation’s page too www.heritage.org/conservatism/commentary/reagan-and-heritage-unique-partnership). In other words… let’s see what happens. Happy to chat about this. Best wishes from Southeast-Asia, Jakob

Trump only pretends he hates China for his base voters.He admires Ping for his leadership.

Would Tiktok be banned in US? I think that's will be a good indicator

Please wake up

Good Analysis Marcel! Is it really true that the Biden admin has more sanctions and tariffs on China than Trump did? That’s interesting

Excellent insight!

US-NATO Threatens to Nationalize Assets Owned by China the EU…

Thanks Marcel on your 3 points on Trump might benefit China. I am not sure how it will play out. I am a U.S citizen and i do follow some political stuff. Good things that Trump is ok. If not we will have a riot in U.S ( similar to Jan 6). Not sure how trump will be more friendly toward china compare to Biden. Such as 2020 Covid he always blamed on China for it. Anyway just hope whoever win the U.S election then it would allow Chinese EV such as Nio to enter u.s.

Thanks Marcel for your update!

Trump is literally a fascist. He only cares about gaining more power.

I don’t understand why people come in the channel and bash Marcel? If you don’t have anything constructive to say, don’t say anything. If you don’t like the channel, just don’t visit it. You can have a different opinion that is constructive and I am sure everyone is ok with it.

Thanks..Happy Sunday ✌️

??.... trump is volatile....a wild card; unknown quantity. trump is bad for everyone, here and abroad. He would be a disaster for NATO. Germany would have a big problem if trump was elected. They would have to pick up the slack by a significantly reduced US support for NATO Yes, China is more neutral than many think in the Ukraine war....but again trump ending that conflict is a mirage.

Here's a valid prediction: Trump is not good for any relations anywhere.

Lets face it the stock cant do any worse than whats happened during bidens time

I'm heavily invested in Baidu, I really hope he can improve relations with China

Trump has already said he would let Chinese cars sell in America if they be built their factory here and used American workers

It’s great for Chinese stocks. Trump wants to work a deal with anybody that’s willing to work with him. Biden has never once talked to chinas president

Total BS

July rally❤

Need to change and improve. Right now Nio is the toilet. 👍🤪

I agree with your contrarian thinking… Expectations are very low, so I think it’s fair to expect any minor positive news would be well received.

Watched Shaun's interviews in cnbc for the last 6 years, guy has been consistent and most importantly - balanced and objective! Hope Shaun expands his coverage beyond consumer/retail sector. Keen on his thoughts on crypto and btc in China

Low expectation is key for a happy beginning

How did you make the comic?

Thanks Marcel..Good luck too. 👋

Thanks again for the deep insight on potential China Stimulus. Also - lovely to see you and your family travel together in China ❤

Thanks mate

Also I saw some people frightened or concerned about cost average. The first time I bought was when they disclosed doing BAAS so mid $40's 1000shares. Now I have 10k@$13.66.... so, I think I saw $7.66? 😂😂😂 Anything under $20 is a bargain! Nio is the company that could be like a Amazon company! It's being manipulated on WS but that won't last forever! Nio takes care of its customers and as you know doesn't degrade battery's. Nio is the only green EV company!!!!!!

Thanks for the video Marcel! Just in time for Onvo launch!!!! Plus I have 84percent invested in emerging international markets so 👌

thanks marcel for uodating us

Brasil will start to put taxes on china imports. Another country which has to protect its economy against China.

I hope you’re right, let’s see! Thank you 🙏🏼

Great video and content, thank you! Go NIO🚀🚀🚀🔥🔥🔥

Interesting content Marcel, it will be great to see Chinese stocks regain some upward traction again. Much appreciated!

Will $NIO eventually reach $25+ a share again? Please & Thank you. 🙏

Hi Marcel, very good video! What is your favorite soccer team? If you have one

GO NIO !!! #NIO #NIOPower #NIOPhone #NIOLife #ONVO #OnVoyage #FireFly 🌟⭐✨

makes sense, thanks for the perspective

Didn’t know you guys had a baby. Congratulations! Good video as usual.

Thanks Marcel. Hope for some surprises to boot investors confident.

Nice video marcel. Just interested in what fellow investors averages are now weve been low for a while. Mines at 7.66 for 20,000 shares.made rookie mistake in buying into the last july run up to 16

Thank you for your videos and posts

Nice bikes do you watch the tour de France? Or are you watching the European championship?

A lot foreigners travel after visa open and build up spending