CAE 27000 pilots needed by 2021 - Is it true? Ask A Pilot
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- čas přidán 21. 07. 2024
- CAE came out with a report stating that there's a need for 27 000 pilots already by 2021. A week before the report the UK pilot union BALPA released a press release saying "Don't become a pilot". Which one is true? In this video we are talking about the motives behind the CAE report and also statements from Ryanair, BALPA, Airline Prep, Lufthansa and UK MPL pilot students with huge debt.
Links to the news and report:
Flight Global news: www.flightglobal.com/strategy...
CAE report: www.cae.com/cae-pilot-demand-...
BALPA press release: www.balpa.org/Media-Centre/Pr...
Lufthansa on pilot surplus: simpleflying.com/lufthansa-ha...
AirlinePrep UK: www.airlineprep.co.uk
UK MPL pilot students with huge debt: airlinegeeks.com/2020/09/25/m...
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Great video! It's great that someone starts to talk about it and who to trust.
Everyone have their own agenda, CAE sells trainings. BALPA sell memberships with a promise of better terms and conditions, which unemployed pilots will degrade unintentionally.
A Pilot hopes for the best but expect/prepare the worst. Future pilots should learn this already now.
The only thing that CAE report is good for is for a bank meeting (Lower interest rates). But expect the worst like BALPA/Lufthansa reports, and make sure you can still pay your loans in that scenario.
Oh and Ryanair have major interest in training business and more pilots on the market = worse conditions.
Now I didn't look much into it but I suspect the price of 0-ATPL training at same school have increased after they get Ryanair partnership! But why? They get a secret cut of that too?
Great advice regarding using the CAE report for a bank meeting. 👌
Well done guys, great video, hope that it will reach wider wannabe pilot audience. I just finished my ATPL frozen program, and it is disaster.
Finally someone with a realistic view.
U guys are rocking
Thank you! 😊
I'll carry on with instrument/commercial this summer but I expect that it will be years until I'm actually getting a paycheck to fly. Hope for the best, expect the worst.
A video length of 7:37 on the day the 737MAX is allowed to fly again, must be a sign of good times ahead! 😄🛫
Not intended but that's funny! Maybe video about 737 MAX should be next 😉
Amen
Great video 👌👌❤️❤️
Amazing☺
Thank you! 😊
There's no pilot shortage at all
You also need to understand that CAE is a public company with a great reputation. I happen to live a few miles off their headquarters in Montreal. I understand their motivation behind their industry research, however, they have a reputation to maintain as a premier industry leader and would highly doubt that their industry research would contain false/skew information.
My view on this is as news of airlines going bankrupt/firing employees have spread out during last two years, less young pilots have completed their training, by fear of not being able to pay off the expenses in the following years. Once the crisis is over, and companies will absorb the manpower left out during Covid, this will create a huge vacuum in rosters. There seems to be a repeating pattern in the commercial aviation industry, where instead of a constant offer/demand ratio, there seems to be a fairly predicable oscillating wave representing such ratio. So, it would not surprise me if in the next 2-3 years we get to the same place (or worse) as we were in the summer of 2017.
Actually, if a recovery will ever come, it will be of no use to pilots. The wages will be dramatically reduced, to the level of bus drivers, and if you think about it, there is no reason why a pilot should earn more than a bus driver. Both are transporting a lot of people over long distances, but the bus driver actually has no autopilot to take over for him 5 minutes after leaving the garage and until he is 30 seconds minutes away from his target.
The extreme pilot wages stem from times in which being a pilot was actually a difficult and hard job. There was no GPS, no autopilot, no fly-by-wire, and even though flying today is easier than driving a bus, the wages stayed more or less the same. Airlines will use the opportunity they have now to not hire at such wages ever again and every pilot will be happy to work for 50.000 - 60.000 a year. The problem is, at these rates, learning to be a pilot is not viable anymore. It cost you twice this amount just to get your ATPL, if you want to add a type rating for an A320 or a 737, if you´re suicidal, you can easily reach 350.000 bucks. So airlines will start to pay for their next-generation themselves again. They have the planes, so the most expensive part, the flight hours come pretty cheap to them, and if they then pay only 50k instead of 90k and more, they actually made a profit. Also, they are legally allowed to give you a contract forcing you to work for them for at least 10 years or to repay the training costs, and after that, you will not want to leave anyhow, as your seniority would be at zero level agaIn after switching airlines.
Very interesting thoughts! You're right that airlines are pushing for lower wages but at the same time the flying schools are increasing their prices. During the pandemic we could see that people entering the schools were the ones that had the money already and usually come from wealthy backgrounds. As long as there are people coming in to the schools and willing to pay the crazy prices that flying school charges, there will not be change.
@@AskAPilot Well, that´s economically wrong. The price of a product is not derived from the cost to create it, else Iphones would cost 150$. The price of a product is always and only derived from supply and demand and what the potential buyer is willing to pay for the product. The pilot is the product, the cost of the flight school is the production cost. But if the customer, the airline, isn´t willing to pay the price, because there is abundant supply, little demand, and a completely changed landscape: Next to no business travelers anymore, usually business travelers make up less than 15% of airline customers, generating 75%+ of the profit, but at the moment there are still 90% of business travelers missing, and even though airline CEOs say that business travel will come back, the business itself has a different opinion. Several of the world's largest banks already announced to cut their travel expenses by at least 50%. And to top all of that, a good half of the world´s aviation fleet is still in long-time storage. So for each pilot position existing, not vacant, there are at least 2 persons qualified with tons of experience. For each vacant position, if there is such a thing at all, there are hundreds of applicants with tons of experience. Fresh out of flight school pilots are in the worst position in history, their only chance to compete in such a market is by underbidding aggressively. This will lower the wages because airlines will use these bids to push pilots with experience to accept a lower wage as well. You will see, if air travel is picking up again and pilots will be hired to man the planes coming back from storage, the wages will be significantly lower than they have been in 2019, for experienced professionals but much more for new pilots. Then flight schools will go out of business. Nobody will pay 250.000$ to get a job paying 50.000-60.000 a year, maybe a little more, but my personal guess would be that wages for pilots will drop by around 40%-50%
I’m calling BS on this,there is or will never be a pilot shortage, oh this is coming from a flight training company , of corse they will sell you unicorns.
You are on every pilot video being negative. You must be a failed pilot
I I’m a realist, AI will be flying these aircraft in the future, Boeing and Airbus are working on replacing pilots.
@@topofthegreen what a ridiculous argument. Not happening anytime soon. You're clearly a failed pilot
If you can operate a laptop computer, you are on your way to flying an Airbus A320.
2022 update??
Shortage of pilots pronounced by a training organisation? Dream seller or self interest?
Most likely self interest 🙊
she got the point, money talk and pilots who desperate of moneys want to make sure they got into the line first :) I haven't think that far, such a critical thinking! The bottom line I get are: yes you can become a pilot but be aware of the current industry if you willing to take a risk, either paradise or hell might slap you later XD
It will all depend on how this Covid thing will end up... there is currently a lot of experienced pilots without a job on the market whom will prioritly get hired once the industry will pick up. My own experience ....I finished training 2014 and wasnt able to find a job until 2016 due to the impact of The 2007 economy crisis. Thats lets say 5 years after the crisis ended. Taking into account that this is not an economy crisis as 2007 but may result in one (hopefully this will not be the scenario). We all hope the industry will bounce back and we can all do what we love, been dreaming of and the last but not least payed a lot for training. To all future pilots may your decisions be the right ones and to all pilots we will survive and be stronge....PF2021
Hi Michał. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and experience. We share your hope for a speedy recovery for our industry.
You should do an update video, this didn’t age well.
Could you please explain? I am at the research stage of becoming a pilot and it would help
Don't pilots have a stronger position to negotiate from if there are less pilots? Pilot shortage = increased pilot pay
Just meet halfway. Become a pilot, but just get your ppl and hold off on the other ratings until the world gets back to normal.
If you want to ask a former CAE employee, let me know
Hi thank you for the offer. Please write to us at contact@askapilot.net and we will arrange a virtual coffee chat.
@@AskAPilot sorry I hadn’t gotten back to you sooner... I’ve been going through something in my personal life and can’t engage in a conversation on the subject anymore...
You are misleading
Nice video guys but we have to mention a fact that 38% of pilots are over 50 years of age plus there is a lot of pilots that are quitting there jobs after the pandemic for starting a new business so CAE don’t talk just for money because after, they are responsible of how they will make their students get fired by companies. Thank you.
You're living in a dream