Elisabeth Braw - Globalization is no Longer Working as Russia's War Accelerates Unpredictable Change
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- čas přidán 22. 05. 2024
- After the Cold War, globalization accelerated at breakneck speed. Manufacturing, transport, and consumption defied national borders, companies made more money, and consumers had access to an ever-increasing range of goods. But in recent years, a profound shift has begun to take place. Business executives and politicians alike are realising that globalization is no longer working. Supply chains are imperilled, Russia has been expelled from the global economy after its invasion of Ukraine, and China is using these fissures to leverage a strategic advantage. Given these pressures, what will the future of our world economy look like?
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Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow at the Atlanric council. She is also a columnist with Foreign Policy, where she writes on national security and the globalised economy. Before joining AEI, Elisabeth was a Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, where she led the Modern Deterrence project. She is published in a wide range of publications, including Politico, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (writing in German), The Times and The Wall Street Journal. Elisabeth is also the author of highly regarded books - one of which we are discussing today.
Goodbye Globalization: The Return of a Divided World (2024)
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ROLES & PUBLICATIONS:
- Monthly columnist - POLITICO (Feb 2023 - Present)
- Advisory Board Member - GALLOS Technologies Limited (Aug 2022 - Present)
- Commissioner - UK National Preparedness Commission (Nov 2020 - Present)
- Member of the Advisory Group - Centre for Information Resilience (Feb 2021 - Present)
- Senior Fellow - American Enterprise Institute (Oct 2020 - Present)
- Columnist - Foreign Policy (Feb 2020 - Present)
- Member of the Steering Committee - Aurora Forum (Dec 2019 - Present)
- Op-ed contributor - The Times (Dec 2016 - Present)
- Non-resident Associate Fellow - European Leadership Network (ELN) (Aug 2017 - Present)
- Senior Research Fellow - Royal United Services Institute (Sep 2019 - Oct 2020)
- Adjunct Fellow - Centre for European Policy (Jul 2018 - Jul 2019)
- Senior Consultant - Control Risks (Jun 2016 - Aug 2018)
- Non-resident Senior Fellow - Atlantic Council (Apr 2016 - Jun 2018)
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LINKS:
/ elisabethbraw
/ elisabethbraw
rusi.org/people/braw
www.aei.org/profile/elisabeth...
www.europeanleadershipnetwork...
foreignpolicy.com/author/elis...
reutersinstitute.politics.ox....
cepa.org/author/elisabeth-braw/
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ARTICLES:
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.ft.com/content/0ac9e1a9-2...
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ch...
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/po...
www.aei.org/podcast/elisabeth...
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BOOKS:
‘God’s Spies: The Stasi’s Cold War Espionage (2019)
The Defender's Dilemma: Identifying and Deterring Gray-zone Aggression (2022)
Goodbye Globalization: The Return of a Divided World (2024)
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PLATFORMS:
Twitter: / curtainsilicon
Instagram: / siliconcurtain
Podcast: open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6...
Linkedin: / finkjonathan
Patreon: / siliconcurtain
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Yup. Experts frequently get it wrong . People did try explaining that sending our industrial base to our enemies was a bad idea . Western Ukrainians (Ukrainians living in the west) tried explaining that the rushins really weren’t the wonderful folk they pretended to be …. It goes on ….
But people are people. Some stupid, some greedy.
There were of course negatives, but aside from those few scumbags, globalisation was a massive possitive. I can remember the 60s and 70s before the opening up. They were pretty bleak times ecomically and in terms of product quality and diversity.
It's the scorpion and turtle, story of 2,000 years ago! The nature of a People's, is their nature! Whether it destroys themselves or not! (Russians under Stars or communist, similar culture imperatives?)
Indeed, Ms. Braw is a powerhouse, formidable. Thanks for a great discussion
Thank you Jonathan for maintaining the best curated Ukraine war podcast. You really do have the best range of experts.
Thanks for the Stream and as usual another Great Guest…💙💛💙
Glad you enjoyed it
Thanks, Jonathan and Elizabeth, for this excellent stream! How naive we Westerners were to think that the Soviet collapse would open the door to Russian Democracy. We believed that they would truly want to be like us!
They had a poor understanding of the former Soviet block. Beside that the USA advisor for international relations was dictated by a cabal which lately were in cahoots with Russia for some reason. They are to blame and the greedy big corporations and globalist they care only about the money.
We were hopelessly optimistic. But in 1991 after decades of Cold War with the Soviet Union (that we all thought would last at least another 70 years). that is exactly how it felt. But we can't beat ourselves up too much in the West, the idea that increased prosperity would lead to liberal democracy was accepted by almost everybody at that time .
It's the scorpion and turtle, story of 2,000 years ago! The nature of a People's, is their nature! Whether it destroys themselves or not! (Russians under Tsars or communist, similar culture imperatives?) 😮🤔
“Be like us”
That mindset is what causes wars and conflicts. What happened with accepting people no matter the differences.
****How naive we Westerners were to think that the Soviet collapse would open the door to Russian Democracy.**** RIGHT ON BROTHER!
but the Western( read American and Jewish ) CAPITAL had no problem 'raping' the CCCP and "stealing"' Russian State Assets in the 1990's ...
and VOILA! surprise, surprise Putin/KGB decided in 2000's to STEAL it back - :-)
Super guest. Great explanation of how we have got to where we are now.
Thank you, Jonathan. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
It's the scorpion and turtle, story of 2,000 years ago! The nature of a People's, is their nature! Whether it destroys themselves or not! (Russians under Tsars or communist, similar culture imperatives?)
Thx j great interviews
Another excellent guest speaker + yet more thought-provoking content - thank you! Also much appreciate the links to articles, books etc. Amazing (and so fortunate for us) that you stream every day - how on earth do you do it?!!!
Everything in this discussion makes sense. Thank you and y😅our guest for a great discussion. There is however a necessity to consider what is occurring in the United States. Perhaps what is happening in the Ukraine is related to this, but there also appears to be parties who are working to take advantage of what is happening to remove democracy from America. These people seem to have deep pockets.
Well ,they get to it partially ,but some points are still viewed with nativity. As Jonathan assumed at the end that all this was planed by the other side especially by Russia and China. To assume that by globalism and liberal markets ,China and Russia will convert to democracy is purely an idiocy as they were flowing their plan creating dependencies , monopoly and finally the demand for a new international order.
Another great interview.. thank you 👍
Excellent interview!
This is an excellent series of interviews on global supply chains and trade, Jonathan. First with Capt. Jerry Hendrix and now Elisabeth Braw… Real heavy hitters. Thank you for your expert Geopolitical insights!
👍👍👍
A really educational interview with a great guest. Thank you
Thankyou
Thanks Jon😊
Elisabeth says that the West cannot dictate to certain countries (India, China) to share our values. I absolutely agree, however there should be a second step, decoupling from such countries, pull investment which obviously do not serve our interests. Manufacturing, outsourced IT, the lot... In the end it would be beneficial for such countries to develop domestic consumption and live within their means, rather than being flooded by misallocated Western capital, which can be better allocated to countries sharing our values.
The problem is that isn’t always physically possible. Obviously it’s unwise to be entirely dependent on hostile or unreliable nations-That’s why France went nuclear after the 1973 gas crisis and the US focussed on build up domestic production. There are always come to be some vital resources that can’t be sourced domestically or from allies. Most modern technologies, for instance, are dependent on rare earth minerals and metals that simply do not exist in abundance in the West. Also, dealing with China and India is, quite frankly, a necessity. One’s an adversary & the other’s not exactly reliable but those countries matter a lot more in the greater scheme of things than Russia does. A destabilized China or India would have catastrophic consequences that would hit us as hard as they hit them.
The world’s not flat, like Tom Friedman said, but there are no more islands left, either.
Hola, Globalization ended over a decade ago according to Peter Ziehan. His analysis makes the most sense to me. Cheers
Joh Ralston Saul called it even further back with his book the "Collapse of Globalism". But it's good to see that the period from 1980s - 2010s is now being discussed as a historical era that's now over.
Another great conversation - and another book to read.
It was never a good idea because it ignored strategic realities.
The strategic chickens are now coming home to roost.
Great discussion
Very interesting interview. You ask really great questions. Thank you!
Innovation is capped in those autocratic countries which of course real democracies don't suffer from. Our future seems brighter in the long term because of that freedom we have to innovate but only once the blinkers come off.
What a fantastic woman and interview. Part of the dawning light.
Love your podcasts and though many are gloomy because of the times, hope shines through your interviews driven by the courage, determination, insight, reality based knowledge you present to us - the best of humanity.
Elisabeth Braws discussion on Globalization
UK & USA signed a revised Atlantic Charter June 2021 to celebrate the Anniversary of the original Charter that paved the way to Globalization in 1941.
1/ protect human rights
2/ rules based global trade
3/ sovereignity assured
4/ sustainable global developement
5/ collective security
6/ raise labour & environmental standards
7/ sustain nature and promote biodiversity
8/ co-operate in preventing disease
source: UK Gov new atlantic charter 2021
I support that.
Thanks!
Thank you!
Thank you for knowledgeable guests
Edifying discussion. Thanks to you both.
The Defender's Dilemma was great, so I'll be getting this book as well.
basics of democracy...liberal or otherwise...lose 1 and the wheels fall off
1 no authroity without consent of parliament
2 free & fair elections
3 freedom of speech
4 right of petition
5 no private armies
6 independent judiciary
7 no torture
8 no religous laws
9 no state confiscations
10 no jail without a fair trial
source: bill of rights 1689 , french declaration of rights 1789 , US declaration rights 1791
"democracy the worst of all governments except for all the rest (Churchill)
Churchill was deliberately misquoting Plato, there
Unfortunately, many farmers and businesses don't want to compete.
interesting, thanks
💛💙💜💙💛 right on time 😁 listening uninterrupted
🇺🇦 🌏 🇬🇧 🇺🇸
👍
I would greatly wish for Elisabeth Braw to review the recent book on a divided society, at a hitherto unexplored depth, titled COUNTERPOINT TRUTH.
I still have to check, but being lazy, is the book on kindle?
It is available on Google Books, author Dale Wilt Evans
It was fun while it lasted. But, y'all know: two steps forward, one step back. We're getting there. 🤞
Ms. Braw made some very good points. The PRC and Russia were both provided every opportunity to join and benefit from the global rules based order system of free trade. Today it is clear that both have decided to be enemies of that system rather than participants.
Russia could have continued to be a major supplier of hydrocarbons to Europe. Instead, Putin's paranoia about the threat he perceived from NATO led Russia to attack their neighbors. The irony is, NATO had no intention of attacking Russia. NATO took in other countries in Eastern Europe because those nations fear Russian aggression. Today Russia has proven their aggressiveness by attacking Ukraine, but prior to 2014, the only true threat to Russia was in Putin's own head. He feared that the democratic ideals Ukrainians were fighting to embrace on the Maidan would infect his own nation. That was a possibility, but Putin had no right to attack Ukraine over their internal politics.
The PRC was able to become a major manufacturing hub because the global free trade system allowed them to import raw materials and export finished goods. Their paranoia about their supposed tenuous position inside the first island chain was just that, paranoia. They couldn't see that the only reason they could become a global power was the free trade that everyone they traded with wanted. Nobody has any intention to attack China and strangle them at the first island chain. But their paranoia has no limits and they keep pushing military strength and theft of intellectual property to the point where their biggest western trading partners are finally starting to disengage with China. The PRC is simply not a trustworthy or stable partner.
China's behavior is lunacy. The supposed threat they face is the same "threat" faced by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. All those massive economies also have to rely on free trade to bring in raw materials and ship out finished goods.
But the PRC can't let go of two ideas, taking Taiwan and controlling the Pacific militarily. Therefore the PRC is today disrupting the very conditions which previously allowed them to grow from poverty to the global power they are today.
These two just can't comprehend that the USA does not control the global world order by military force. Nobody is forced by our military to work within the global world order. Nations participate in global trade because they want to, because it benefits them economically. The US military is there to provide security when needed from outside forces trying to disrupt that global free trade.
When people see an American naval vessel in a foreign port, they know it is not there to harass or exact taxes, it is there to protect freedom of navigation. When they see a PLAN ship, they know it is there to harass and enforce their ridiculous nine dash line.
It is deeply ironic that both the PRC and Russia are rejecting the global rules based order when that very order could have benefited them, did benefit them, and everyone else who still participates in it far more than anything they hope to gain through aggression.
Globalization raised people out of poverty in many countries, including China, India, Russia. This is massive change happening in one generation. It would make sense we would stumble once in a while because we feel we have enough wealth. The first thing people do when they win a lottery is quit their job. I asked a guy why not you and your wife buy a house? He said once he got equit built up, say $30,000, he would sell it and stop working until the money was spent, then go back to work. It takes a different mindset to sustain wealth personal wealth and wealth of a country. My hope is both Russia and China may go through what they call the Peter Principle, then continue to build wealth and security. And that this includes jumping to democracy. (I say jump because it seems there is not much middle ground, you are either authoritarian or democratic.)
Behind the iron curtain no one had a washing machine, like in the west. We had one, where you still have to wash the clothes by hand and it was considered as a luxury. No one we knew had even one like this.
We had one, my dad made it with the help of a friendly plumber who soldered the tin inner lining.
I heard the first washing machine given to India was dragged down to the river and the women slapped their clothes on it whilst it was half submerged. 😂
That is not true.
It must be. It's in the dictionary as an adjective, pronoun.
👍🇺🇦👍
(I've gotten a little bit of an allergy to AEI association, but I can't remember exactly why, and it never not close to rising to the level of my disgust with Heritage. I would never just dismiss someone if they're associated with AEI. Neither would I a Heritage fellow, but only because I want to learn more about evil, the better to undermine it. Just a random anecdotal point regarding branding.)
Peter Zeihan clearly identifies North America as being demographically, natural resources and human talent as being highly positioned to survive while Europe’s demographics are not good for its future. Neither are China’s or Russia’s demographics which are even worse. Collapse has already well underway in both countries. Both China and Russia are done! Europe has huge challenges with its lack of integration into its culture of immigrants and the EU enhancing productivity across the board.
Fantastic guest! But at 21:34 you state "less for highest cutting edge technology..". The problem we in the west have discovered is that we depend on Taiwan and other countries that specialuze in components such as semiconductors and it is gooing to tae a decade to replace these as home grown as we have overdone it in outsourcing. The pandemic made this clear.
Liz says: We have to make it work...
Is that to prove to God that we don't need Him ???
There's a spiritual war going on as well. And proving to God that we, (some), don't need him is the larger part of this battle.
If you're not Christian, God defeated your leader long ago. Finding out the hard way and not repenting, honestly I don't know when it's too late to repent.
On the point of authoritarian regimes, my late father, born and raised in Ukraine, said to me in my 15th year on this amazing planet, Don't trust a Communist, don't EVER trust a Communist. They're not going away, but don't join them.
Thankfully it was good advice.
So when I heard that businesses on mass were giving their intellectual property to the CCP to do business in China. I thought this is it. This is the rope the Communists said they would hang us with. It's all over down here I thought, and it brought me closer to God.
👍🇺🇦👍
Natural resources have to be recognized by entrepreneurs to recognize and use them.
Great discussion, thank-you both.
But important to see the link between recent Houthi attacks on certain shipping (US and UK linked) with American and British direct involvement / military assistance to the Saudi coalition fighting the war in Yemen. Seems like classic blowback.
Interesting that the lady can discuss the Houthi attacks on shipping without saying the word Gaza.
When the New leader of Russia came to America, he thought the first town he saw was dressed up, idealistic town, their leaders didn't know also!
Globalization help rich people to avoid fair taxation
How is planned obsolescence a factor in globalization? The Net Domestic Product equation does not include the depreciation of durable consumer goods.
Shouldn't worker/consumers search Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations to find "read, write and account". The United States could have made accounting/finance mandatory in the schools since Sputnik.
The trouble is Smith never saw locomotives. Karl Marx did and mentioned 'depreciation' 35 times in the first two volumes of his major work. Of course Marx was not concerned with the depreciation of air conditioners and microwave ovens.
Planned obsolescence is a feature of broken capitalism. It is not caused by globalisation. It is the technical equivalent of being sold a very poorly bred horse. It is a tactic not a strategy.
In German they obviously don't have the expression 'having all your eggs in one basket' !
👍👍👍
What a surprise 🙄
Congrats all who were involved. You created new enemies for yourself.
Norway also has a very low population !
Bill Browder RED NOTICE worth a read. Putin ammassed $600 bn in 2021 . Spending 3-5 bn a month on the war and having 300 bn frozen ends up with estm. $130 bn today.
Russia pop. = 140 million . Norways Sovereign Wealth Fund (pop. 5.5 million) = $ 1,200 bn
Worst decision. Millions of smart small business entrepreneur's got overrun!
Wait, sending our industries to countries that openly discuss destroying the west was a bad idea ??
Hmm.. I think youshould try to get Peter Zeihan for an interview/discussion.. You'd have to think about how to set it up so he daesn't get as focused on the US perspective ashe usually is inhs presentations though..🤔🤨
Putin ,Putin took the chips out off the washing machines
54:30. China could easily sail in and make them stop??? China is not deep sea capable and does not have enough ports in the area to support there boats even if the got there. And do you think India would just let a large number of chinas boat sail buy their country.
India has nullified the effects of much of the sanctions . How good would it’s economy be if their people weren’t able to harvest the western economies .Make it difficult for its citizens to extract money from the west and I bet their government starts listening The western working class might catch a bit of a break too….
I think America should ban Indian people visas and ban all trade with India. Wanna play with the devil? Pay the price...
The Indians that can't emigrate in a western country will hate them to their guts.
China's navy does not have the range to operate in the Red Sea.
They can pick any port in the Gulf region. Who needs range?😉🥃🇷🇺
They have operated there in the past and can operate out of Djibouti
How do we repatriate critical industry, how do we kick start things like steel production and car production. How do we eradicate dependencies on countries that do not share our interests. Maybe getting out of the EU is going to turn out to be a first step.
Slava Ukraine!
No ULEZ
Kahn OUT!!!
Its all about money and power ....what a sick world
Internationale order/law 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
I think few deep concerns will fix everything. 😅
divine central authority unity with substantive human rights choice for international law overcome political government separation from God tell each person what to do
Mnmh hh
7:50 That is an utter nonsense, eastern countries including Muscovy never wanted their populations to be prosperous, just the opposite since the poor citizens are fully dependent, their vote can be bought for a bag of cheap foods. Growing GDP per capita was an undesirable consequence of the state capitalism. Yet another fantastic speaker © with no idea of anything.
did you earn a bag of potatoes for this comment comrade Ivan?
Vote, what vote? Democracy has never been a factor in the Kremlin’s calculations. I’m publishing a video over the weekend that directly addresses the idea the Muskovy keeps its serfs poor as a matter of strategy.
Q: Vote, what vote?
A: The ritual vote formally legitimizing the power, paid by ritual foods symbolizing the social contract.
Maybe that is the Russian way to see democracy and capitalism. If they will get a bag of cheap food they will vote for Putin. Not to mention the delusional psychopaths and clowns playing all day on their TV.