Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview
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- čas přidán 19. 05. 2024
- When Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine and the West quickly came together in support of Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appeared shakier than ever. Last summer, an attempted coup even seemed to threaten his rule. But today, Putin looks confident. With battlefield progress in Ukraine and political turmoil ahead of the U.S. election in November, there’s reason to think things are turning in his favor.
The historian Stephen Kotkin joins us to discuss what this means for Russia’s future-and how the United States can be ready for whatever that future holds. Kotkin is the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is the author of the forthcoming book Stalin: Totalitarian Superpower, 1941-1990s, the last in his three-volume biography of the Soviet leader.
Sources:
“The Five Futures of Russia” by Stephen Kotkin
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia...
“The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine” by Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrain...
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It's always great to hear Joe Pesci speak geopolitics!
He’ll love that😅
😂😆🤣
I knew that he reminded me somebody, i cant unsee it now
Humorous to hear "russia" and "deal" in the same sentence.
Kotkin makes some great points, but the idea of an armistice 2022 that the Russians would actually honor is ridiculous...they violated the Minsk agreement, the Budapest memorandum, etc...they constantly meddle with neighboring countries and their independence. How could we possibly think they would have agreed to anything in Oct.of 2022?
Kotkin talks about how Ukraine rejected peace treaties with Russia. And he never mentioned that Russia always, always breaks any treaty as soon as it sutis Moscow. The recent examples- Chechnya. Beofre that - FInland. Does Kotkin know about this? Of course! Why he ignores this, and pushes this idea about "treaties" with Russia? That's a good question.
I'm a simple man. I see Kotkin video I click play.
I really want to see a debate between Kotkin and Mearsheimer
Steve assumes russia would honor a armistice agreement. Ukraine and the baltics and Poland know better
I totally agree. It seems like Steve doesn't have a real grasp on Russia. Talking about an armistice just sounds naive to me. Russia has never honored a single agreement, ever. Plus, Steve's arguments feel very America-focused. If you ask me, Frank Kagan and Timothy Snyder are probably the best Russia experts in the USA right now.
I admire Professor Kotkin’s thinking and analyses. The winning the peace concept is wise. However, the road to winning the peace is sometimes cloaked in shadow.
For instance…Arguing a mistake by Ukraine was made in not pursuing an armistice with Russia assumes Russia is trustworthy. Further, an armistice abandons the Ukrainians on the other side of the front line. Russia has been effective at agreeing without acting upon the agreements. I, for one, have no faith Russia would honor the terms of any agreement.
Agree
Agree with you 100%. I'm a huge fan of Kotkin as well, but he puts too much faith in the Russians honoring any sort of agreement long-term. Their record is bad on this. It wasn't in Ukraine's interest to have the world move on to other things - the Russians would have just sent the tanks back in, after everyone stopped paying attention.
Russia says it was the west who reneged on Minsk and Istanbul
What did Merkel say about the Minsk agreement?
Agreements are not about trustworthiness but about balance of power. Such agreements only work if keeping them is more beneficial than breaking them by force of power. This is why the Munich agreement in 1938 was meaningless. Nazi Germany was the most powerful player at this time, and could break any agreement as they please, exactly what the US does today.
A peace agreement with Russia can work if Nato is the the enforcer. Not because we trust Russia but because Nato is powerful enough to keep Russia in check.
Kotkin is my favorite historian - he understand Russia and knows what the future holds for Russia, if they continue their"stand alone" policy. Putin is done, it is only a question of time.
Kotkin is a revelation to me. I only discovered him last year. His insight into current politics is unparalleled in both its depth and breadth. Mind blown. (AND he originally studied Czech, which is the language my old home country :D )
I could listen to Steven talk all day. Guy is so interesting.
Could listen to Kotkin for hours.
And I do!
Stephen Kotkin is a man I would love to meet one day. He is brilliant and humble. I agree with him on everything he says, having spent a lot of time in Russia and Ukraine.
It is mentally refreshing to listen to a cogent explaination of a complex issue(s). Thanks.
Wow! Someone talking sense about Russia and China. What a fresh and intelligent thinking! I salute you Stephen Kotkin!
What would the Ukraine CZcams world be without Stephen Kotkin... 👏
Mr. Kotkin may well be the most insightful person alive on foreign relations. Brilliant podcast. Kudos!
Always enjoy listening to Prof Kotkin.
Like so many people, I love listening to Stephen Kotkin declaiming on current events, politics, world history, and human nature. He is full of insights and surprises! I wish he would run for U. S. President!
Absolutely BRILLIANT! Anyone knowing both Russia and France must find Kotkin's perspicacity in drawing the parallel between the two nations remarkably sublime and piercing. His observations are profound while also leaving one slapping one's own forehead for how obvious they seem--after, of course, he says them. Wish that he could have the White House's ear, whoever resides there, to provide insight into that unique nation. De Tocqueville, like Kotkin, nailed it in his observation about Russia and America and the parallel roles they would play in the world's destiny. Kotkin carries on in that great tradition of analysis and understanding.
Thank you, Foreign affairs. Can't wait to read Kotkin's article!
Thank you for sharing this excellent analysis! I really enjoyed all your points of view and realism on the Russia situation.
A very balanced commentary on political affairs both present and past.
Great to hear.
Whilst I appreciate and approve of Kotkin calling for clarity in our foreign policy? We haven't seen clearly stated mission objectives nor exit strategy since the Swartzkopf debriefing in Iraq 1.
Excellent. I really enjoyed Prof. Kotkin's insights.
I like Prof Kotkin's take on foreign policy and explaining it. Good questions, too. Thanks from 🇦🇺
Thanks guys 😊
Outstanding interview with Professor Stephen Kotkin!! He is brilliant, incisive, perceptive and entertaining and this mix of ingredients is rare.
Like this guy. good voice
Academic Joe Pesci
Kotkin is certainly a wonderful American gift.
Great as always love KOTKIN
Thank you Mrs Kotkin. Thanks to FA`s staff members.
Don't call it a podcast. It's an actual *interview.* No point in naming names because everyone has seen true scholars and experts stepped on CONSTANTLY by alleged interviewers. Dan Kurtz-Phelan is different. He not only poses excellent, penetrating questions. He allows people to *answer them* without dilatory interruptions. Podcasts are entertainment. This is better.
That's quality content. Thank you so much for this great interview. Mr. Kotkin is an excellent speaker.
Yes! Stephen Kotkin, time to make food and watch
I love kotkin so much, used to follow him befire the war and hes so relevant right now
Great interview. Foreign Affairs is superb. Even the promo music is elegant. Thank you!
Always a pleasure to hear from Steven Kotkin.
Excellent insight from Stephen
There was never any real peace treaty on the table. What Kotkin doesn't talk about is that Russia is a trickster, it had a number of peace treaties with Ukraine and didn't respect any single one of them. Any such treaty would bind Ukraine, but it wouldn't bind Russia in any way, because they don't care about what's written in any of these treaties. Russia would just catch its breath and keep fighting. Knowing all of this very well, Kotkin still decides to lie into our faces.
Thank you ☆
Spectacular interview. Many thanks for this to all involved.
Kotin might be a good historian, but geopolitics is not his strength. Neverthless, I still appreciate his knowledge in Russian History.
Would love to hear your specific thoughts! What areas did his conclusions feel off base geopolitically?
No, this is not the way to go. Mr Kotkin is believing that a deal with Russia is possible. That is not so. His whole argument falls on this simple point.
I've learned a lot from this humble scholar, Kotkin. It's always a pleasure to listen to someone who is a Master of his subject. What clarity! Thanks!
Kotkin's insight is always illuminating. more of him for the benefit of all.
Stephen Kotkin: Automatic thumbs up 🎉🎉🎉
Mr.Kotkin is marvelous! Thanks Foreign Affairs for this wonderful talk!
This is the first time I have listened to this man and already I love him.💖
Even if one doesn't agree wth everything that Mr Kotkin says one hS to admire his breadth of thought nd the simple fact that he inspires you to think. 👍
Great talk. I think Mr. Kotkin is missing an important point: You cannot attribute much historical motivations to a people when it’s just one dictator controlling the country. China’s and Russia’s great history is not what drives its government or economy. It’s a dictator and a few collaborators that call all the shots. At the top of their priorities is self preservation and gaining more wealth. They use their peoples’ history as an excuse to make geopolitical moves.
This same conflicting of national representation with dictators, more akin to organised crime, has been the downfall of democracies everywhere, and has to stop. The world will not be a safe and healthy place to live until the democracies eradicate dictatorships and enact a global citizen policy, removing passport restrictions and equalising humans of every origin and ethnicity.
Love the Kotkin. He’s like the Yoda of Hoover Inst.
Prof Kotkin's commitment to clarity is so helpful in today's jungle of ideas about Russia.
Remarkable! Brilliant! Sane! What a fantastic interview. Great question's. Thank you .
I really respect kotkin but it's sad to see how he is repeating Russian talking points about the negotiations in 2022. He's unfortunately also misrepresenting the negotiations. There never was a realistic prospect of peace.
Insightful interview from FA as always
Stephen is always incredibly insightful. Great interview.
Mr. Kotkin always has something insightful to say, he is great!
Stephen provides the best thought out political analysis of both the situation in Ukraine and the global realities that I have ever heard…….should be in every President’s think tanks……..
Leading us out of the wilderness. Love Kotkin!
Thank you!
Since when capitulation is seen as ending the war "on favourable terms"???
This is my exact position....stop trying to analyze putin's mind and "real" projects. Just act on what he's doing and telling. Again, another great talk with a great guy.
What a treat
Appreciate Kotkins work!
This was fantastic! Thank you
Excellent Thank you so much!!
I like this mans meanings of words. Great minds 😊
A great interview!
Superb interview.
I'm not so sure that Russia is alone. How will the BRICS countries develop?
We may have to start seeing the world with new eyes. What role will the global West have in the future?
Always educational.
Thank you, Professor, for letting us know that you are going to wrap up Stalin, Volume Three!
Nice piece. Stephen is sharp!
This was an absolutely brilliant and enlightening discussion.
Awesome interview 👏👏👏
I never get tired of listening to this great mans insightful commentary.
Excellent discussion.
Interesting perspective. But I disagree with Stephen on the topic of an armastice in Ukraine 2022. Making that agreement would only make sense in a very short-sighted may, akin to corporations chasing their next quarterly without looking at the coming years.
I do agree with Stephen later in the interview, when he dismisses appeasement in a conflict between two major powers. Appeasement, I find, should also be held to be untenable in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Kotkin is the only one out there putting options forward for public consumption in this manner, it’s appreciated.
Excellent review, I agree with most of the analysis❤. I wish the same type of interview could be done with Prof Kotkin about Iran and the future of Iran and its reliance on Russia and China.
Thank you
who knew Joe Pesci was so knowledgeable on Russia? brilliant stuff!
Outstanding discussion 4:51
What’s the meme saying about Russian history, Our future is certain but our past is unpredictable?
Very interesting discussion, subscribed!
What an excellent interview. "Cold War is good." I love it!
Interesting as anything i've heard thus far 🎉🎉
My favorite content on CZcams is anything Stephen Kotkin does, yet I don't agree with one significant point regarding sanctions and their effects. Russia society is paying a cost with Western sanctions. It effects their economy as a whole and it effects every strata of Russian society. It will turn Russia as a technology wasteland at the worse time maybe in history, where western democracies/free market economies are soon to make the jump into the AI age. Ukraine doesn't have to win on the battlefield because Russia as a state and as a people has already lost.
And the long term Putin effect: Putin has damaged the trust necessary to have binding agreements of any sort, by burning all of bridges necessary for relations with the west. Even if an negotiated peace is found, it is only a matter of time before Putin will break it. The question then becomes can Russia become a trustworthy partner after Putin? This is one question Stephen dances around. I agree the west needs to express the objectives much more clearly, so that China and passive enablers of Putin wake up and choose not to stand with Putin.
I agree. I hope you are right!
I like Kotkin. Kotkin is our friend.
predict what trump might do??? Dammmm 😂😂😂
Great analysis
Fantastic: Kotkin is up to his usual Olympian standards. He sketches a more convincing, if provisional, victory of the West than Fukuyama did 30 years ago. Hopeful, but realistic.
Listening to this I got a glimpse of something I hadn't quite seen before - Putin seems obsessed with getting rid of all in the world who do not back him. I couldn't figure before why he seemed unperturbed at people fleeing from Russia but I guess they fit into the category of people he has got rid of?
So good to hear Prof Kotkin's calm and wisdom. Thank you for good questions.
Not as good as kotkins usual. But really looking forward to his THIRD book on Stalin. 👨🚒
Great thoughts on Ukraine.
Winning the peace with Putin by allowing him to keep annexed territory is just a wonderful gift to your brutal invader. He can then build up his economy over the next few years, but for Russia that means their war economy. Weapons and arms would also be built up to ensure outright victory on the next attempt to Russify the whole of Ukraine. Putin had made it clear on many occasions that he does not recognise Ukraine as a country, but that it can only be regarded as a part of Russia as it was.
Brilliant
I loved this
it's been my pleasure
Brilliant! 💙💛
I liked the discussion of the West as an institutional matrix
Thought Putin has been very amenable to the west even asking to join the European institutions. Only thing Putin felt was offended by USA & nato move to place missiles next to their borders.