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There us no such thing as a nice war.

Clarity!! And the administration’s lack of it. So true. Very important observation!

Kotkin’s ironic ( or is it sarcastic) sense of humor is always a delightful surprise. Not having dinner with Putin these days? Unlike all those public commentators who claim to know Putin’s thinking. 🥹

47:60 Nailed it. If you can't be bothered to listen to the whole thing, listen to the 5 minutes around this and you'll understand why we need to be listening to this guy and why it is so damaging that politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are deaf to this message and how tragic this is going to be to us all over the next 5 to 10 years. Again, thank you Stephen.

This is the best opinion yet on world affairs so far. How Russia can win in Ukraine is obvious now. They're making money on it. Period! Why stop, when everyone is getting rich. And they have unlimited manpower. Etc.

22:41 Thank you Stephen Kotkin for sharing your grasp of affairs and your innate intelligence with us. Listening to you is a privilege.

People disagreeing with Kotkin on the treaty/armistice question are missing the point entirely - yes, Russia is not trustworthy and will strive all they can to renege on any deals, but at least creating a temporary deal where the accession of Ukraine into NATO and the EU occurs would make any Russian gains or trickery meaningless. This why the definition of "victory" is so important; a situation where Ukraine takes back land and is locked in a forever war is not better than one where the voluntarily sign away land but gain the protections and prosperity required to rebuild in the West that Putin wants to move Ukraine away from.

I'd caution against romanticizing the post WWII era. Rolling Thunder alone cost the lives of at least 30 000 civilians, with targeting that does not fulfill today's standards.

Informative and dispassionate discussion of the international law of war and civilians. I don’t know about other countries, but there is NOTHING like this analysis in the mainstream media in the UK.

Here’s my take. 1. The problem with a 2022 armistice is that Putin has to agree with it. Any peace treaty Putin would agree to would hand over so much of Ukraine that it would be, as Mr. Kotkin says, a capitulation. 3. The Pygmalion option has failed in the Middle East. But it has worked in Japan, Germany, Italy, Spain, and other places. Rather than writing it off entirely, we should study examples of when it has and hasn’t worked to decide whether it’s a feasible option. That said, it isn’t happening with Russia. 3. Kotkin is correct in his claim that most of the people fighting and building munitions for the war are economically incentivized to continue the war. But that money doesn’t come free. It’s drawn from the finite, decreasing oil revenue, finite reserves, and the civilian population. Expect the civilian population to crack before the war machine.

It’s remarkable mr. Kotkin lays out why Biden is losing in the polls. Not succinctly laying out why we are doing things regardless if it’s Ukraine, border, infrastructure, etc.

Saving Ukrainian sovereignty requires Ukraine admission to NATO.

Wonderful to hear such insightful commentary from genuine expert. Pity it’s not more common

I like this mans meanings of words. Great minds 😊

Spectacular interview. Many thanks for this to all involved.

❤️❤️❤️

I'm all for going against terrorists but saying things like we're a small nation so one innocent death from ours is worth one hundred innocents from the other side doesn't strike me as just or resonable. The other side, both sides are humans. In fact on TV it looks like indiscriminate revenge against a people for what their terrorist leaders cooked up even if many of them in fact as children did not vote Hamas into power in that sham election. With 9/11 at least going after Bin Laden in Afghanistan initially made sense even to us Europeans while the random bloody Iraq adventure drove far more criticism. So Saddam wanted to kill Walker's dad. How does this warrant killing all the civilians? It all bites you in the back claiming a just cause.

Stop Netanyahu now, USA.

The idea that international law has ever been applied to the steady colonisation of Palestine is naive and even laughable (if it wasn't so tragic) Also if I kick someone out of their house and then make it a house rule that what I did was fine , that doesn't count as a rule/law

I don't think Kotkins i maintaining that Putin would honor any treaty or even an armistice agreement, but that the Ukraine will fare better with negotiation and bargaining than with battling on the ground for territory and political control of the contested oblasts

Unbelievably insightful and presented for the average listener. 50:51

Basically we are on the eve of a major change in international politics just like WW1 the ruling class of that era didnt understand that the advancement in technology made the primitive power politics land grabs by force etc very costly and in the end led to the downfall of the traditional powers. The failure to understand the interconnected world today and the cost of great power war will inevitably be the ruin of the United States w must find a way to co exist with powers that have other interests.

As much as i like stephen kotkin i must disagree with the Jingoism in American foreign policy. I would submit to you sir that it is actually not our responsibility to overthrow regimes in other countries. It is not our responsibility to convert other countries to democratic systems by the bayonet or through coercive banking schemes. We end up making more enemies in the long run especially if the democratic regime we prop up is not organic in its conversion. The more of an Empire mindset the United States has the more authoritarian/managerial/administrative state the United States becomes. The goal of tbe United States should not be and was never intended to be an Empire or a system for world domination in the name of peace as the roman empire was in the name of national security.

What do we have to do to get a Kotkin-Mearsheimer discussion??

He gets it

So America needs to celebrate diversity.

I really respect Prof. Kotkin - but I find problematic when historians start to talk about the future and push aside parts of the past. Why the period from 1989 to 2008 is completely ignored? The most successful former eastern block countries - successful in GDP per capita - performed like the US did during the Great Depression. Those were the most successful countries! The worst ones faced the worst economic crisis in modern history¹! (and I'm not even mentioning North Korea that had 600,000 people starve to death in 3 years) I agree with George Kennan (interview with Charlie Rose): The US should take care of its own problems and really become an example others will want to follow. 1) Source: "Taking Stock of Shock" - lecture by the authors linked bellow. Note: this has nothing to do with the war because, after all, the two countries that had the most excess deaths in the period were Ukraine and Russia. czcams.com/video/lziI5nZH8hA/video.html

Stephen Kotkin is right to point out that these ancient states see no reason why they should accept the hegemony of a 200 year-old whippersnapper. Also, America supported dictatorships when it suited her during the cold war. He's too impartial to use the word hypocrisy, but most of the world sees it that way.

Joe Pesci is great at foreign relations! Fugettaboutit! Who knew? Tell you what though. Sounds like home to me.

I'm not really sure why mr Kotkin thinks russia would hold to any "peace agreement" that does not give them all or most of what they demand, why would they keep to that agreement even if they gained what they demand, or why he thinks such a "peace" that allows Ukraine to keep its sovereignty or ability to eventually join NATO is even any kind of an option. Its like thinking isis will keep to some agreement. In perpetuity. Considering all he knows about russia, which he explains in several great videos... this idea of "winning the peace" by loosing the war, or conceding defeat in any amounts, is surprisingly weird and even practically delusional.

KOTKIN'S ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS GERMANE AND HE SEES THE BIG PICTURE BOTH GEOPOLITICALLY AND HISTORICALLY..

Stephen is always incredibly insightful. Great interview.

This is the problem with "academics". As a politician, you can play and say that each region has its "truth". But at least in theory, you established a universal code of behavior when you founded the UN. Satisfying all the aberrations of all the mads is not the world you want to live in. Do we have other choices? Not if politics will not change and just accept "diversity" and "real-politik".

Why does Ashley expect India to do what the US wants, India will do what is good for India. US always ditches its allies. It created China to counter Russia. Ashley talks soo much. Its is useless analysis.

Kotkin sounding just like another NeoCon. Russia tried to meld with the West after the Soviet collapse. In return, the US and NATO reneged on the US promise to not expand NATO. This aggression or failure to recognize the difference between the new Russia and the collapsed USSR pushed Russia to ally with enemies of the West.

I like Kotkin. Kotkin is our friend.

The regime is strong but brittle, that seems to me to be a contradiction.

I feel politically suppressed by the political parties we have in our democratic system in the USA. As you say, they can screw up everything...

Mr. Kotkin always has something insightful to say, he is great!

Stephen Kotkin: Automatic thumbs up 🎉🎉🎉

Winning the peace with Putin by allowing him to keep annexed territory is just a wonderful gift to your brutal invader. He can then build up his economy over the next few years, but for Russia that means their war economy. Weapons and arms would also be built up to ensure outright victory on the next attempt to Russify the whole of Ukraine. Putin had made it clear on many occasions that he does not recognise Ukraine as a country, but that it can only be regarded as a part of Russia as it was.

29:01 I do not understand in what sense the present day West lacks illiberal, but anti-communist regimes. Even if we lack them, it seems like it would be easy--via diplomacy and propaganda--to turn them against the Reds.

Brilliant, as ususal.

Stephen provides the best thought out political analysis of both the situation in Ukraine and the global realities that I have ever heard…….should be in every President’s think tanks……..

Posen is trying to sell a narrative that won't explain the GFC but Pettis' theory does. Chinese underconsumption causes excess reserve accumulation and purchase of agency MBS, pushing CDOs. It's that simple.

A great interview!

Humorous to hear "russia" and "deal" in the same sentence.

Insightful interview from FA as always

There was never any real peace treaty on the table. What Kotkin doesn't talk about is that Russia is a trickster, it had a number of peace treaties with Ukraine and didn't respect any single one of them. Any such treaty would bind Ukraine, but it wouldn't bind Russia in any way, because they don't care about what's written in any of these treaties. Russia would just catch its breath and keep fighting. Knowing all of this very well, Kotkin still decides to lie into our faces.

If russia does not want to become the vassal of CCP, then why isn't the west enable russia to join the NATO?