Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions?

Heuristics
Instinctual Conclusions
Prioritizes Efficiency before Certainty
1. Binary Based Conclusions
• Black & White, True or False, Yes or No
• If it's what I see, it must be
• Based on subjective observation
• Downside - Not everything is as it seems, most things don’t fall into extremes,
2. Convenience Based Conclusions
• Bias Alignment fits with what you already want to believe.
• Does it agree with my presuppositions?
• Based on subjective opinion.
• Downside - Lacks objectivity, skews context.
3. Conditional Based Conclusions
• Answer Depends on clarification of question.
• "It Depends" If / Then statements.
• Based on contingency outcome.
• Downside - Can be used for control or manipulation
Critical Thinking
Mindful Conclusions
Prioritizes Certainty over Efficiency
1. Investigative Based Conclusions.
• Multiple possible outcomes. There is a truth to find.
• Where Does the evidence lead?
• Based on the process of elimination.
• Downside - Time-consuming, may never resolve
2. Causational Based Conclusions
• Search for the Root Cause, Logic / Reason.
• The Why?, Motivation? Error?
• Based on the process of determination.
• Downside - Proof is hard to find, Leads to speculations
3. Probability Based Conclusions
• Variable unprovable outcomes.
• Statistical Likelihood, Odds / Trends
• Based on research and analysis.
• Info can be manipulated & misused
Conclusion - We all must use the right tool to have the best chance at the best conclusion.

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