WAR is Stupid... Sometimes

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  • čas přidán 11. 01. 2023
  • Twitter: / dead_baseball
    Baseball creators that helped review the script...
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    Calculating WAR spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
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Komentáře • 472

  • @patdry
    @patdry Před rokem +247

    Randomly generating a date on which a no-hitter was thrown is easily +10 WAR.

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +117

      I left it out of the video... but Bosio only had the 5th highest WAR total on that day among starting pitchers.

    • @TombomOfficial
      @TombomOfficial Před rokem +14

      by a mariner nonetheless lol

    • @MrTakaMOSHi
      @MrTakaMOSHi Před rokem +7

      Randomly generated my birthday

    • @qfmarsh64
      @qfmarsh64 Před 11 měsíci

      ​@@BaseballsNotDeadas it should be. I'd rather my pitcher throw a Maddux than a no-no.

    • @EthanNiedorowski
      @EthanNiedorowski Před měsícem

      @@BaseballsNotDead.
      After watching this for like the 5th time
      Why don’t you make a new formula?
      Call it bbnd ❤ and make it make sense
      An show your work so we can use it
      Become the new age bill james

  • @bobbest8627
    @bobbest8627 Před rokem +198

    I’m an old guy… Born the year the Giants moved to San Francisco from New York. Been trying to get a grip on all the new statistics coming my way, WAR, FIP, etc. I googled WAR, and was going to sit down and learn the equation… way over my head!
    Thanks to this channel it is less over my head. Definitely worth watching these videos more than once.
    Excellent content… Keep it coming, you are teaching an old dog new tricks!
    P. S. I still miss pitchers throwing complete games and 20 win seasons.

    • @toilet_cleaner_man
      @toilet_cleaner_man Před rokem +6

      you're most certainly not alone and that would make this whole "ascertaining value" thing significantly easier.

    • @cheddarcheese7928
      @cheddarcheese7928 Před rokem +5

      So funny!.I still don’t 100% understand WAR..I do have the basics( I think)but I’m happy to see I have company being at least a little confused

    • @connorchurch3518
      @connorchurch3518 Před rokem +1

      Lol who’s the greatest of all time for you? Willie Mays?

    • @bobbest8627
      @bobbest8627 Před rokem +4

      @@connorchurch3518 good guess! Yep Willie was my hero. even though I’m only a Giants fan. I was proud of the giant dodger rivalry back then. It was a beautiful thing. I got to go into the Giants clubhouse when I was 12 years old and meet Willie. Got his autograph. Happy to say I got to see Koufax and Drysdale face Mays& McCovey and Marichal and Gaylord Perry on the mound. In those days when you look at the back of a baseball card to see the statistics, first thing you checked for was an ERA under three and the batting average over 300. In those days players were with a team long enough for you to bond with them. The Giants open up their season this year against the Yankees and are probably going to face Carlos Rodon. Oh, well, baseball is still a beautiful thing!

    • @spencertherren6806
      @spencertherren6806 Před rokem

      Go Giants!!!!!!!

  • @its-dg2987
    @its-dg2987 Před rokem +253

    WAR is definitely not an end all be all stat. But it’s such a good base for valuing the overall production of a player over a given sample size. Again, use it as a base stat before you look at other stats like OPS, FIP, OAA, etc.

    • @sorenludwig3978
      @sorenludwig3978 Před rokem +11

      its only good to compare players within the same position and pitching war is useless

    • @Gemnist98
      @Gemnist98 Před rokem +6

      So basically, it’s the Rotten Tomatoes of baseball stats. 😂

    • @noahmets
      @noahmets Před rokem +5

      You are incorrect when you say that AL players were given a 10% boost prior to the universal DH. The way they evened out the WAR was by giving it to NL pitchers.

    • @chriskeddie4226
      @chriskeddie4226 Před rokem +2

      @@Gemnist98 yes it saves you watching every player/ going through every stat page but is not perfect

    • @justvibing2497
      @justvibing2497 Před rokem +2

      It's horrible

  • @dzelman444
    @dzelman444 Před rokem +13

    "I'm not an athlete, I'm a baseball player" John Kruk.

  • @danplewnarz
    @danplewnarz Před rokem +23

    A baseball strategy RPG would be lit.
    "Damn, I'm low on resources so I have to start Ken Waldichuk..."

    • @nextgencowboy
      @nextgencowboy Před 3 měsíci +1

      It does exists. Strat, which is short for Stratomatic. I only played it for a little bit, when I was 11 or so, but it seemed really fun. It uses actual player stats, and that correlates to their dice rolls. The resources usually come into it in regards to how uou draft, if you've got enough people you might have a salary cap, or whatever works.

  • @Falllll
    @Falllll Před rokem +28

    Describing WAR as "neurodivergent" is a new one

    • @Gemnist98
      @Gemnist98 Před rokem

      Maybe he’s a minor?

    • @wavedash101
      @wavedash101 Před rokem

      No, it means they are a chud

    • @Kirk00077
      @Kirk00077 Před rokem +8

      I couldn’t tell if that comment was satire or if one of the bullies from a Stephen King novel came to life and became a huge baseball fan

    • @FocusSight
      @FocusSight Před měsícem +1

      I genuinely am confused because they seem to think that's an adjective that can describe a calculation method...

  • @BaseballsNotDead
    @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +57

    A couple of things that hit the cutting room floor because I didn't want to make this a 30 minute video...
    I did touch on ultimate baserunning and ultimate zone rating, but the overall point was simply "we don't know enough about the calculations to really provide a critique." Fangraphs themselves says "you can't calculate these on your own because you need video data from Baseball Info Solutions." They also only allude to how they use that info to calculate them and don't get into too many specifics or formulas. I would really urge them to provide by game BsR and UZR data so we can look into that and verify it's legitimacy.
    I also left out an overview of how the one day calculations ended up. Figured if you wanted to dig into that you could look at the spreadsheet.
    Finally, to answer a question... How much would my recommendations change fWAR? Actually not an incredible amount, especially for most players that aren't a DH. But WAR is the type of stat that should be constantly re-evaluated and if there's a way to improve it and make it more accurate, even if it's minor, it should be looked into.

    • @MegaFeRex
      @MegaFeRex Před rokem +1

      If WAR is a measurement, it should be as precise as we can make it. No one would be upset about additional magnification on a microscope!

  • @AndThatsBaseball
    @AndThatsBaseball Před rokem +181

    WAR is stupid, but not as stupid as not subscribing to Baseball’s Not Dead

  • @dafttassia1960
    @dafttassia1960 Před rokem +76

    You put in more effort than any other baseball youtuber it seems.
    Much appreciated.

  • @supergoose5142
    @supergoose5142 Před rokem +32

    16:49
    I've had this same thought before. I've actually done work on this to try to create my own FIP stat that uses rate percentages (and possibility regresses data for a normalized HR/FB or HR/contact rate) and in every instance I've come up with a model that is not really significantly better than FIP. The examples you described are valid, but to be fair they're very extreme and don't really happen with any type of regularity. They're more of a statistical anomaly rather than something that actually impacts the data. If you gave these 3 pitchers a significant sample size, example 1 would have an awful FIP, 2 would be mediocre, and 3 would be very good, assuming these games are indicative of their actual contact quality/contact rates.
    Is FIP perfect? No, and it's for the reasons you explained. FIP is derived from the formula for a simple linear regression model. Any time you build a linear regression model you are accepting a certain level of statistical error in order to develop a model that is more stable or predictive than raw data. This can be *very* tricky for situations such as how it's frequently used in baseball. A model such as FIP, where you're predicting how a player "should have" performed rather than how he actually performed always creates significant statistical error. If the model was perfect, the players FIP would always equal his ERA that season. If the model is bad, his FIP would be wildly different than his ERA. Neither of those are useful, so models such as FIP come in a midway point, with a significant statistical error that is acceptable because the predicted result is more predictive than the player's actual ERA. FIP, while being extremely simple, is actually pretty effective at this. Stats like Statcast's xwOBA are neither more predictive than the actual results or correlate too strongly with the actual results, and therefore are absolute garbage junk stats that should never ever be taken seriously under any circumstances (I am an extreme xwOBA hater and will take every opportunity possible to express this. It's significantly less predictive than wRC+, for example).
    In 2014 I was honestly very on the fence about advanced baseball statistics. After taking some stats classes in college, I realized that nearly every SABER stat is built on fairly simple regression models, and is actually pretty entry level stuff. That's not to question their validity, I honestly think anything more advanced than what we have currently would not be particularly more useful and honestly might be too complex to actually give valid results. The noise-to-signal ratio in baseball events (ie: unpredictability) is way too high for anything beyond simple linear regression to be actually useful.
    I do agree that the way baserunning runs is calculated is pretty confusing. That said, even the most extreme examples rarely are worth more than +/-10runs (a little less than +/-1WAR in a typical season. My guess is that it's just considered inconsequential enough to not have any time devoted to valuing it more accurately. For most players, stolen base success rate is a near wash in terms of value, as GIDP and taking extra bases on hits are more valuable.
    On positional adjustments:
    I think this is a perception issue for many people. Fangraphs really mislabels this, characterizing it as more of a defensive thing, when it's really more of an offensive thing. First baseman need to hit more than shortstops to be good at their position. I do agree that those constants need to be updated, though it would probably have an inconsequential effect on the final number. Same with league adjustments. Prior to the universal DH, the offensive bar to clear in the AL was much higher than in the NL, since in the NL you could still get fairly regular playing time just by virtue of being a better hitter than the pitcher.
    SP vs. RP adjustment is definitely becoming antiquated. It's true that an out is an out, but the SP vs. RP adjustment is based on oldschool pitcher management styles where relievers weren't as good as they are today and also weren't expected to cover as many innings as they are today. Openers weren't a regularly used thing, so they kinda exist in a blindspot of this calculation. I expect this will eventually be addressed as starters continue to pitch less and less innings and the difference in quality on a per-inning basis between starters and relievers decreases. FWIW I'm also like 95% sure that leverage is included in reliever WAR

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +17

      Good comment.

    • @lorenzodebiasi7763
      @lorenzodebiasi7763 Před rokem +1

      I dont see it in your comment but i might have missed it,but xFIP calculates FIP replacing the pitcher fb/hr with a standard 10% rate

    • @jimboscooter432
      @jimboscooter432 Před rokem

      Dude it's baseball

    • @unkledoda420
      @unkledoda420 Před 10 měsíci

      I find FIP to be a pretty useless stat.

    • @smoceany9478
      @smoceany9478 Před 7 měsíci +1

      @@jimboscooter432 great game

  • @No5712
    @No5712 Před rokem +19

    this is the best video ive ever seen on WAR as a topic, another topic I think that would be worth covering that's in the same vein is OPS vs wRC+

  • @stephen_cs
    @stephen_cs Před rokem +3

    The aL having about 10% more WAR actually makes sense in a twisted way.
    NL had pitchers (notoriously bad hitters) as 1/9 of the batting order and therefore the NL would be skewed by only having to face effectively 8/9 real batters vs the AL which- with a DH- was having to face 9/9 batters

    • @stephen_cs
      @stephen_cs Před rokem +1

      Therefore with a very, very, VERY simplified logic, the NL was about 11.11% easier on defense

  • @intune252
    @intune252 Před rokem +16

    Great video. Hope this brings some attention to FG and BBref because it makes you wonder how often they peer review their own methods

  • @secoril
    @secoril Před rokem +12

    This is a really great video that does a wonderful job of explaining WAR. Also, I immediately perked up when I heard the date. You randomly picked my favorite day of baseball, in which my favorite team's pitcher threw a no-hitter on my 11th birthday.

  • @FrekyD
    @FrekyD Před rokem +13

    Awesome video, really informative and well edited, making a very complex topic sound simple, most underrated channel on baseball YT right now and it's not even close!

  • @VegeMaticPragtarian
    @VegeMaticPragtarian Před rokem +7

    Great video. WAR is better for comparing people from similar positions than people from different positions. The more alike the positions and roles those players play, the better WAR is for comparison.
    No stat is perfect, but stats are also what make baseball such a unique sport, IMO. Nerds and jocks coming together for the love of the game, love to see it. Both have a place.

  • @avb19d6
    @avb19d6 Před rokem +9

    Being someone who’s just got back into baseball this past year. Watching your videos and learning about these stats I never knew anything about. It’s the main thing that keeps me watching outside of just genuine content

  • @Nokona99
    @Nokona99 Před rokem +5

    This was a really impressive explanation and analysis of WAR.

  • @MountainFisher
    @MountainFisher Před rokem +6

    I'm an engineer and sometimes what seems to be an arbitrary factor is well thought out because it works.

    • @pablogutierrez5767
      @pablogutierrez5767 Před rokem +1

      I'm also an engineer and honestly I don't know where we'd be without all the seemingly arbitrary factors lol

    • @MountainFisher
      @MountainFisher Před rokem +3

      @@pablogutierrez5767 I know. I had an issue with the brake operators getting screwed on tolerances by cheap Chinese steel running right at the edge of minus nominal tolerances. For bend deduction there is a formula with an arbitrary factor of .0078, no reason except it matches results.
      Anyway I told the floor supervisor to never mind the called for radius and use a radius that worked, customer is not going to notice an extra .032 radius.

  • @PaladinYT
    @PaladinYT Před rokem +3

    Videos like this are why I love this channel. Glad you took the effort to tackle this all from scratch in Excel, really adds some weight to your arguments.

  • @jamese4729
    @jamese4729 Před rokem +13

    Really cool to learn about these stats in depth. Also, your solution of changing rates with FIP is awesome. It's basically FIP+, which seems useful to me, although I'm sure it has its own issues.

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +1

      Glad you enjoyed it!

    • @unkledoda420
      @unkledoda420 Před 10 měsíci +1

      FIP is the most useless stat I've ever seen.

    • @gradyjones7017
      @gradyjones7017 Před 8 měsíci

      @@unkledoda420thank you, I’ve been trying to say this forever. I understand it’s use as a predictive stat, but the people who try to use it to make Spencer Strider look better than Blake Snell are insane

  • @gabrielilles6506
    @gabrielilles6506 Před rokem +2

    Dang, you did a heck of a lot of work with all that data entry and calculating. Nice work!

  • @bobsala7780
    @bobsala7780 Před 10 měsíci +2

    Great video, but I have to ask if your calculation for the run values / linear weights for the single day you calculated is leaving out something that causes the large difference from FanGraph’s 2022 run values. It may be due to FanGraphs adding the difference of making an out in any situation.
    To use your example of Jose Oquendo, you calculated the difference of a runner on first from a runner on first and second both with 1 out, which was .6666 - .4194, or .2472. But the true value of his single also includes not making an out. So I believe the calculation FanGraphs uses also adds in the difference between a runner on first with 1 out and a runner on first with 2 outs. In your example, that would be .4194 - .2206, or .1988. Adding the .1988 to the previously calculated value of .2472 gives you .4460.

  • @richardbecker7421
    @richardbecker7421 Před rokem +2

    Great work on the video. The thing that frustrates me the most about the topic is that most people who hate WAR, never come up with a solution. It feels like they try to poke holes in WAR, instead of finding a way to get us a better stat that does what WAR tries to accomplish. My sneaking suspicion is that these people are more like the commenters you shared who want to attack analytics, because math is scary, and they still think RBI mean something. If anything, your issues with WAR are that it is not even more advanced mathematically, which is the opposite of some of these people.

  • @des0163
    @des0163 Před rokem +2

    I love so many of the points you make here especially about how insane it is that the defensive positional adjustments don't change year to year even tho the amount of balls in play is falling every year. However at 14:38 , I don't agree with your point that it doesn't make sense that AL players get inherently more WAR for similar play, but you failed to consider that those AL hitters in that era were only being compensated for the batting runs they were losing by playing in the better hitting league caused by the DH. Without the DH they would get that WAR back in hitting value

  • @JoshTheOther
    @JoshTheOther Před rokem +3

    As someone who's just been getting back into baseball more seriously, this video sums up both what's exciting and what's deeply frustrating about these advanced stats. I love how powerful and elegant WAR, FIP, and the rest can be! It's also very counter-intuitive and frustrating to trust a stat that few people even know how to calculate and that values a dropped third strike more than a strikeout (as much of a fringe case as that may be!) And, of course, I don't think it helps that advanced stats have helped usher in an era of baseball that many/most fans think is less aesthetically pleasing than baseball in the past.

    • @brandongillette6463
      @brandongillette6463 Před rokem

      Good take. I think it is possible to aesthetically dislike a version of baseball that min/maxes certain things while also appreciating the efficiency of those approaches to the game. It's like jazz music for me. I respect the hell out of it, but I really don't enjoy listening to it.

  • @kurtwagner350
    @kurtwagner350 Před rokem +3

    This is actually a very helpful guide to understanding WAR

  • @AndreIguodalaFan55
    @AndreIguodalaFan55 Před rokem +4

    I'm a huge sabermetrics guy and I love war, but I do agree it can be dumb sometimes

  • @Cindoreye
    @Cindoreye Před rokem +3

    WAR is a tool. If you know how to use it, it has much more value than if you don't, and like all tools, it has a specific purpose. Using it in the wrong place or for the wrong job will lead to less than optimal results.
    Personally, I have a lot of issues with WAR (some are outlined well in this breakdow), but it still has value when in the right context.

  • @andyluddy5084
    @andyluddy5084 Před 8 měsíci

    A very well put-together video, making it clearer what WAR id doing (and not doing) behind the scenes. An interesting companion might be an intermediate-level discussion of the differences between the major versions of WAR and why the differences do/don't make sense.

  • @mavensbaseball
    @mavensbaseball Před rokem +3

    I love that baseball attracts stat nerds. I bet most hard-core baseball fans learned to use excel because they wanted to figure something out about baseball that they didn't understand or know the answer to.

  • @michaelderyder426
    @michaelderyder426 Před 2 měsíci

    This was a great watch. I cant imagine how much time you put into this. Unbelievable

  • @tangilizer
    @tangilizer Před 4 měsíci

    what a fantastic video! I now have a deeper understanding of multiple stats and see their pros and cons. What a script yall put together, truly excellent work

  • @maesophia4126
    @maesophia4126 Před rokem +11

    Really good video! By chance have you read Bill James’ critique of WAR? It was a fairly controversial essay during the Judge-Altuve MVP race and brings up some interesting points that I think are complimentary to the points you’ve made here.

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +25

      I have read some of Bill James' critique of WAR, and actually felt a little guilty including him on the thumbnail since he isn't a big WAR-stan (but he is the most recognizable sabermetrics guy, so I put him on). Gonna admit, not the biggest fan of his takes over the past 10-15 years. He seems to be contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian a lot of the time... which back when sabermetrics was in it's infancy and it was simply contrarian to look at baseball that way, it drove the field forward a ton. But now that sabermetrics are more mainstream, his contrarian opinions sometimes makes some takes that I'm really not on board with.
      I believe his main argument was to incorporate more situational hitting into WAR, but that goes against what WAR is supposed to be. WPA is the stat that is completely dictated by situational hitting, WAR is completely removed from situational dependency. that's kinda it's thing. His argument was tantamount to making WAR more like WPA, which gets messy. It's like saying we should average ERA and FIP... they both do different things and averaging them together would just make a new stat that ends up being less than its parts because you wouldn't really know what it's saying because you'd have to look at ERA and FIP to get the context.

    • @maesophia4126
      @maesophia4126 Před rokem +4

      @@BaseballsNotDead that's a totally fair take on it and more or less what I think---like on the one hand the situational part of the game is obviously important in one sense, and is a reason to consider other metrics aside from WAR when thinking about player performance, but as you said trying to include that is somewhat missing the point of the stat. Nonetheless, something about that essay in particular amongst his, as you rightly point out I think, contrarian era of takes still makes me think about it.
      Thanks for the thoughtful response!

  • @thegreatestever11
    @thegreatestever11 Před rokem +3

    I agree about the limits of WAR as a stat, because while measuring value through the prism of "runs" is correct, it has the problem of appearing simpler than it actually is.
    Things like outfielder DRS being regressed before 1950 (Look at Tris Speaker and Joe Dimaggio) and Baserunning runs being regressed before 1930 (Max Carey and Sam Rice), are not visible at first glance makes the figures seem ridiculous. Tom Thress's Win-Loss records are a good resource to consider in addition when evaluating a player with numbers besides WAR, but the simple appearance of WAR makes it seem superior to other choices.
    Even an element like OPS+ has a big problem when you see that is doesn't account for handedness in park factor, so someone like Joe Dimaggio is considered by OPS+ to have benefitted from playing in Yankee Stadium, while Hank Greenberg and Wade Boggs would be players who get extra credit in OPS+ despite their big home/road splits. It also can't consider how a player like Jimmy Wynn would have to adopt his style to the park and be hurt despite having an apparent boost from home. Context and other sabermetric stats like "Clutch" are hidden under the Advanced Stats header on Baseball Reference, and that WAR by itself doesn't tell much about a player without context, such as the perception of their abilities when they played even if they were underrated or overrated for certain reasons.

    • @catbelugagaming584
      @catbelugagaming584 Před rokem

      While it is unlucky for players that their park harms them more than others, it is what it is, and their value should not be adjusted

  • @jackofallbaseball3735
    @jackofallbaseball3735 Před rokem +11

    Awesome video! Definitely a topic I've contemplated covering myself, kudos to you for putting in all the effort to go through the number crunching, that's a daunting amount of work.
    If you don't mind me asking, do you have a degree in math or data analysis? I like to do similar analysis and I have a degree in astrophysics, just curious!

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +7

      I do not have a degree in either, but I do have a degree in environmental engineering... so a STEM field... and I did have a job that involved some industrial engineering and data analysis. I did realize my senior year I probably should've been a math major instead when taking a 400 level vector calculus class and realizing I was better at that than my engineering classes (damn you fluid dynamics... I hate you with a passion), but c'est la vie.

    • @jackofallbaseball3735
      @jackofallbaseball3735 Před rokem +4

      Ahh I see, yeah I suppose any STEM field where you did high level calculus would give you all the tools you need! Couldn't agree more about the vector calculus, was a big fan of that and differential equations!
      Looking forward to more of your videos! Maybe one day you and I will put our heads together to find the exact date that Carlos Correa's ankle will explode.

  • @texastwostepgaming
    @texastwostepgaming Před rokem

    Man have a like, you deserve it. Good God I went cross eyed trying to keep up. You made my old stats professor happy I'm sure!

  • @gravatik
    @gravatik Před rokem +3

    It was nice of Lightning Fast VCR Repair to let you record there.

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +2

      I was in their movie "Space Cop" for all of 1 second so we go way back.

  • @kylehart8829
    @kylehart8829 Před rokem +3

    WAA is a better stat but WAR is used because it's easier to say. It's just WAA with a speculative value plucked out of thin air, and it makes it more confusing what's going on. Just rename it to Wins Above Mean and then you can say WAM, easy.

  • @mosesferrie7909
    @mosesferrie7909 Před rokem +1

    Great analysis thanks for taking the time

  • @Taydutt13
    @Taydutt13 Před rokem +2

    As a Warhammer fan.. may the God Emperor of Mankind smile on this channel from atop his golden throne

  • @CalebsCards
    @CalebsCards Před rokem +4

    Interesting video, I had no idea how WAR is calculated.

  • @jacksonvelez7106
    @jacksonvelez7106 Před rokem

    Love this video. Thanks for the in depth analysis.

  • @Duke_Scanlan
    @Duke_Scanlan Před rokem +1

    I'm a truck driver and I love listening to your videos when I drive.
    Funny thumbnail by the way.

  • @chriskeddie4226
    @chriskeddie4226 Před rokem +2

    Do you think Wins Above Average is better than Wins Above Replacement, when comparing top tier players?

  • @travisp5747
    @travisp5747 Před rokem +1

    I go cross eyed whenever someone begins explaining WAR

  • @rkip123456
    @rkip123456 Před rokem +2

    I would have a lot more appreciation for the WAR calculations if they were to abandon defense in the calculations all together. Just make defense a separate statistic. Situation, ballpark, weather, and other defenders on your team have such a huge impact on fielding that adding defensive WAR really skews the total for some players.

  • @paulg8314
    @paulg8314 Před rokem +1

    Really great video man, keep it up

  • @stylish_rubble314
    @stylish_rubble314 Před rokem +2

    Someone needs to get FBI to protect this man from r/baseball

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +2

      I am /r/baseball... i.postimg.cc/43yC1tW5/R-Baseball.png

  • @illusionSquared
    @illusionSquared Před rokem +5

    With the latest statcast data, could we factor balls in play into pitcher WAR calculations? Given a certain exit velocity (and battled angle?) you could work out the probability of an out/1B/2B/etc. and then we can make use of the run expectancy matrix again.

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +7

      That's not a bad idea. Maybe using SIERA (which does incorporate that data) instead of FIP.

    • @supergoose5142
      @supergoose5142 Před rokem +2

      xwOBA is junkfood statistics. xwOBA is less predictive for the following season than wRC+. It ignores several significant factors such as batter speed, handedness, and batted ball distribution, and relies entirely on data that is not necessarily repeatable (in other words a batter won't necessarily hit balls the exact same way every year). There's a very long list of players who have a consistent and large difference between their actual wOBA and their xwOBA. Any consistent, repeated error like that in a statistical model strongly implies bias and that variables needed to make the model accurate are almost certainly missing. I would imagine this would be the case on the pitcher's side too

    • @IdliAmin_TheLastKingofSambar
      @IdliAmin_TheLastKingofSambar Před rokem +1

      @@supergoose5142 Have you written any articles or know of any existing analyses of xwOBA you could point me to? I haven’t dug into the data, but I’ve never felt comfortable with the metric and have tended to ignore/de-emphasize it, partly because of those consistent, apparently systematic errors you referred to. Also, I know Pitcher List calculates xwOBA differently, though I don’t know the details (I can ask Nick Pollack, though it’s possible it’s proprietary info). Also, are you sure xwOBA doesn’t incorporate speed? I ask because I’m pretty sure xBA _does_ now incorporate sprint speed, though I don’t know exactly how, nor whether it incorporates any other baserunner data, like home-to-first times. Also, if xwOBA is bunk, does that also imply that xERA is bunk (since it’s just opponent’s xwOBA scaled to ERA)? Curious to hear your thoughts.

  • @Alexander_Grant
    @Alexander_Grant Před rokem +4

    Edit: Finished the whole thing, I think you did a really good job of explaining the faults of some of the advanced metrics, this is a perfect way to critique it rather than saying it's a bunch of nerds. I can't believe you ran all of that through Excel though, I've normally done most of my own data dives with Python, but I'm seriously impressed at the effort you put into this video. It's nice to see a more math heavy video on this subject, and hopefully this stops most of the haters.
    I'm only 2 minutes in, so you may spell out all of this, but man, I cannot stand the people who just downplay stats. I don't get the war (pun intended) on people who use stats to try and gain a better understanding. It happens in all sports, and for some reason all these ex-players just completely discount it. I don't know if it's just from lack of knowledge, or the idea that nerds are encroaching on their territory. I played baseball through high school, went on to play club baseball at my college (I was never good enough for real college ball) and have coached 10-14 year olds for free because I enjoy it so much. I also played rec basketball and football in college and was pretty good there too, at least in the top half of those leagues in just pure athleticism. That's not to say I'm some athletic savant, but I'm probably more athletic than most who didn't play real college sports.
    On the other hand, I've been labeled academically gifted my whole life too, I majored in physics and got a minor in computer science. I absolutely love using numbers to deal with sports, and in my time playing on different teams, I've only had generally receptive attitudes towards using metrics to look differently at sports. I've made friends on those teams who loved hearing about the coolest new metric I found on the internet and how it applies to different sports.
    All that to say, I've seen the hatred for using numbers in every major American sport, I love the Pat McAfee show, but he clowns on people who use numbers to try and get an advantage, the same with Inside the NBA and Charles Barkley. I know it happens in baseball too just judging by those comments. I really do think the best way to do it would be to combine knowledge from both, and it seems like the old school people don't want anything to do with any sort of numbers in their game, and it really seems to come down to insecurity from not knowing how numbers work and refusing to think that some "nerds" know better than them about a game they played, which honestly is really sad to me. Especially since I hold both Pat McAfee and Charles Barkley in such high regard.

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem +4

      "It's nice to see a more math heavy video on this subject, and hopefully this stops most of the haters."
      Spoiler... it won't.

    • @Demoralized88
      @Demoralized88 Před 10 měsíci

      Problem with this argument is that 'advanced' stats are a proprietary product that was sold as a solution to owners who could not or would not be willing to compete in the increasingly insane FA market starting around the 21st century. Almost no one thinks they're 'bad' - the main issue is that they're arbitrary and have flaws that haven't been addressed. For instance, I and many others think WAR is a pretty good metric to compare similar positions but completely falls apart when it considers a god-tier 1B or DH to be roughly as valuable as an average 2B or CF.
      The other sports don't revolve around statistical products that may or may not actually be very good.

  • @TylerAven10
    @TylerAven10 Před rokem +1

    Thank you for being the one person who actually cares enough to try and understand the true inner workings of WAR calculation. I know people say stuff like “WAR isn’t perfect”, but I can’t help but think that after seeing how it is calculated, that wOBA (and xwOBA) are as close as you can get to perfection in determining hitter value. But it did always frustrate me that they use FIP for WAR which is literally designed to ignore like half of baseball. And now that I’m seeing more about the details of WAR, I’m pretty frustrated by the use of static numbers without an explanation. Its so lazy compared to all the other things it tries so hard to get exactly right.

  • @Oracio13
    @Oracio13 Před rokem +1

    This video made me subscribe. Excellent work.

  • @somedude1901
    @somedude1901 Před rokem +1

    What an unbelievable video. Great work!

  • @smajet5640
    @smajet5640 Před rokem +4

    So if Replacement Level is really as arbitrary as picking 1,000 because why not, why doesn't everyone just use WAA (Wins Above Average)? What's the point of having any replacement adjustment at all?

    • @BaseballsNotDead
      @BaseballsNotDead  Před rokem

      I also cut this out of the video for time... people don't like half the league having negative numbers in a stat is one reason. Another is having a baseline for a stat that represents something, even if it's kinda arbitrary, does communicate to fans some semblance of value. Also, with that getting accepted first and people internalizing the value of WAR (2 = average, 4 = all-star, 6 = great, 8 = MVP) it's tough to really change that. I don't mind the concept, it's more the communication around what "replacement level" represents is kinda confusing and doesn't play out like that in most cases.
      You could also pick a value of 2,430 (total amount of wins in the league) and just call it wins, but then people would have to recalibrate where 5 = average, 7 = all-star, and so on.

    • @catbelugagaming584
      @catbelugagaming584 Před rokem

      because then you would say that most players have negative value, which doesn't make much sense

    • @smajet5640
      @smajet5640 Před rokem +2

      @@catbelugagaming584 It's not saying they have negative value, it's saying they're below average. Imo average is very intuitive especially when compared to "replacement" which is confusing and somewhat arbitrary.

    • @catbelugagaming584
      @catbelugagaming584 Před rokem

      @@smajet5640 It doesn't tell us what we want to know though. The value of a player lies in being better than "replacement level", whatever that is. If WAA is used, players who are good enough to play in the majors but not above average would be unfairly penalized.

    • @kylethomas2993
      @kylethomas2993 Před 10 měsíci

      @@smajet5640 I like the idea in theroy, but the problem with that is that a just below average player who plays 12 seasons might accumulate something like -9 WAA while a really bad player who plays 2 seasons could have -5 WAA. The stat would say that the second player had a better career but that definitely isn't the case.

  • @scottmitchell1974
    @scottmitchell1974 Před rokem +1

    Great video!
    I HATE the positional adjustment.
    When you walk up to the plate, you are Batter.

  • @jgame2228
    @jgame2228 Před rokem +1

    I love the its always sunny reference

  • @YankeesWarRoom
    @YankeesWarRoom Před rokem +1

    Great video. While we shouldn't use WAR to the decimal point when evaluating players, that doesn't mean we shouldn't make adjustments to the metric in order to make it more accurate to what's happening on the field.

  • @smoceany9478
    @smoceany9478 Před rokem

    do you know where i could find the starting pitchers metric correlation list, i can find a short list but it doesnt show the full list that you have

  • @PpP-dr1od
    @PpP-dr1od Před rokem +1

    Jesus christ! I never thought I'd ever feel nerdier than when my sister walked in on me and a friend passionately debating who was more influential between Mozart and Shakespeare but I just watched a 20+ minute video about calculations being suboptimal.
    In all seriousness tho, great video. For such a ubiquitous stat for baseball discourse most people don't understand the calculations which often leads to somewhat blind faith or blind distrust of numbers.

    • @JayTemple
      @JayTemple Před rokem

      Omg I want to be your friend just because I love nerdy conversations like that!

  • @yankee2858
    @yankee2858 Před rokem +2

    Disrespecting war is heresy

  • @JorgeRodriguez-ih8ub
    @JorgeRodriguez-ih8ub Před 3 měsíci

    This is my favorite intro of all sports related channel

  • @user-vh3ot5sm6y
    @user-vh3ot5sm6y Před 9 měsíci +1

    WAR is a convenient stat we can use to kinda understand the worth of a player.
    I like stuff like ERA+, WRC+ OAA individually tho cause it’s easier for my brain to understand 😂

  • @wesleyklehm2437
    @wesleyklehm2437 Před rokem +9

    Thank you for not being another channel like Italkstudios or baseball doesn’t exist. You talk about things that matter and aren’t just a 20 minute video overblowing any controversy that happens or has happens. Thank you. I like your videos

    • @Augustisthegoat
      @Augustisthegoat Před rokem +2

      every baseball channel has their specialty man, can't keep a closed mind about alot of things

  • @RetroBaseball
    @RetroBaseball Před rokem +3

    Extremely Common W BND Video

  • @DeVoidAS
    @DeVoidAS Před rokem +1

    20:10 imo I think starters are more ranked as more valuable since they eat up more innings, hence why the constant is much higher. Just a baseless thought tho that isn't based on any numbers except for logic so Idk

  • @hkpew
    @hkpew Před rokem +1

    I don't pretend to know the details of WAR calculations, so maybe there's something that I'm missing, but it seems to me that eliminating the difference in pitcher replacement level between starters and relievers without any other change would ignore the real value to a team that comes from a pitcher eating more innings. But having said that, there's no question that determining that adjustment purely by whether or not the pitcher started the game is dumb. It should be some sort of adjustment made entirely on the basis of the number of innings pitched. (In addition to solving the 1 inning starter problem you mentioned in the video, that could also capture the fact that a starter who routinely pitches 7-9 innings is a lot more valuable to a team than one who pitches a solid 5 innings almost every time but can't be trusted to go longer.) Of course, that still isn't really complete - an inning in which you have to face the top of the order, or the heart of the order, is more valuable than an inning against the bottom of the order. Over the long haul that will probably even out for starters, but not necessarily for relievers. Also, it seems like there ought to be some sort of adjustment for save situations. Of course, you can keep adding things like this forever and at some point the improvement in the stat gets to be small compared to the increased difficulty in calculating it, but at least the number of innings pitched seems like it's important enough that it needs to be included somehow.

  • @WhatHappenedtoBaseball
    @WhatHappenedtoBaseball Před rokem +2

    Ready for this video to make a baseball traditionalist

  • @sammiller3242
    @sammiller3242 Před rokem +2

    This is the best defense of WAR I've been presented with, but it still made me hate it more. Great video nonetheless.

  • @811chelseafc
    @811chelseafc Před rokem

    Gotta say that’s the greatest thumbnail I’ve ever seen.

  • @AdequateEmily
    @AdequateEmily Před rokem +1

    “Neuro-divergent” “nerd” “unathletic” “dungeons and dragons” I DONT EVEN PAY ATTENTION THAT MUCH TO ADVANCED STATS, WHAT DID I DO TO CATCH STRAYS? Let me be a dork and enjoy sports jeez!

  • @justmeeagainn
    @justmeeagainn Před rokem

    This gave me memories of sitting in pre-calculus in 12th grade, not having any idea what was going on.

  • @willbarnes7693
    @willbarnes7693 Před rokem

    Thank god for this video, for so long I just never got WAR, now it makes more sense

  • @maxm5953
    @maxm5953 Před rokem

    Bro did you just drop an accurate Salamanders ref? This channel is the coolest uncool thing that ever existed.

  • @gavinr1425
    @gavinr1425 Před rokem +1

    these are all cool issues to point out with the stat and this is the exact kind of thing that I love to look at.
    The criticism of relief pitching WAR is spot on, I don't understand why it matters if the game was started by said pitcher or not. MLB teams pay relievers based on what their WAR would be if not for this silly adjustment, so I think that speaks for itself.
    Your next criticism (aka my super strong opinion on a niche subject that no one cares about) could be about steamer projections training on selected samples and that leading to disasters like having 39 separate catchers projected for a wRC+>100 in 2023.

  • @NoertheBoy
    @NoertheBoy Před rokem +1

    Excellent video!!

  • @Ben-ed6dp
    @Ben-ed6dp Před rokem +2

    This channel so underrated

  • @Verlisify
    @Verlisify Před rokem

    The "Use the eye test" was a level of stupidity that baffled me. A human isn't going to be able to draw an unbiased conclusion from watching every action a player takes over the course of a game, season, or career. The eye test can work for the occasional anomaly, but can't just dismiss data. Why do acronyms scare people?

  • @andrewhawkins6754
    @andrewhawkins6754 Před rokem +1

    The data is there (thanks to statcast) to generate a much more accurate number based on a lot of what you were talking about. If hitters get runs based on what a single is worth in a certain situation, pitchers should get the same treatment, IMO. If a pitcher gives up a single, it should be worth that fractional amount of runs, just like a strikeout would be negative runs. You could even incorporate expected batting average of each individually batted ball to really get the numbers better.
    I say you should make your own stat that is much more representative and see what changes year to year vs WAR.

  • @1Epicocity
    @1Epicocity Před rokem +1

    Wait the change for FIP to percentage base calculation is a great change.

  • @aaronchapman3
    @aaronchapman3 Před rokem +1

    I've been trying to get a grip on WAR since around 2008 or so and it just hasn't happened until now. Thank you for this video.
    Also how do we get those two tweaks added to the FIP calculation? Can't you email the right person and present your case like you did to us? It's pretty compelling evidence.

    • @ajjdgj6tmgedvnmtmek
      @ajjdgj6tmgedvnmtmek Před rokem

      Really it would be a different stat, because the current FIP actually serves an interesting statistical role, one mentioned in passing in the video. FIP at its heart isn't really useful as a stat for measuring how good a pitcher is, and here it's being misused for that. It's role is to make something easy to calculate that correlates to future performance. Like let's say a scout without a lot of math knowledge is sent to the Dominican Republic to look at international amateur pitchers. These kids probably aren't going to be pitching in the majors next year, the org wants a kid they can put in the minors for a year and work on skills first. For a stat-oriented scout, they're going to want a stat that they can calculate reliably on their laptop or phone, and they'll want that stat to be representative not of how good a pitcher is now but how good they might be in two years at the end of their first season in the majors.
      FIP is actually better at guessing that future pitcher's goodness (as measured by ERA) than the kid's current ERA. This is because FIP basically ignores hits that aren't home runs and focuses on three trainable aspects of pitching: home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Home runs are very bad, walks are bad, and strikeouts are good. This can be seen as paralleling how easy it is to refine certain skills in pitchers. It's hard to get a pitcher to not throw pitches that result in home runs. It's easier to lower walks and increase strikeouts by working on accuracy to convert some balls to strikes.

  • @MetFanMac
    @MetFanMac Před rokem +1

    One of my biggest frustrations with WAR is that there are multiple ways to calculate it. Imagine if you had to talk about ERA or batting average and then specify whose ERA or AVG formula you were using.
    It's useful as a starting-off point or a "quick glance" but using it as a primary statistic is ludicrous to me.

  • @TheYellowcardz
    @TheYellowcardz Před rokem +1

    Your channel is awesome!!

  • @calebgibson55
    @calebgibson55 Před 7 měsíci

    That intro song is really cool!

  • @usedchicken4510
    @usedchicken4510 Před rokem

    When you calculated your run expectancy matrix how did you account for potential runs left on the board in walk-offs?

  • @Archerftw
    @Archerftw Před rokem +1

    This is such a great video. It’s annoying that most people who don’t like WAR are the “math is for nerds” group which nobody should take seriously. But legit breakdowns like this actually make a point

  • @omarhasan2254
    @omarhasan2254 Před rokem

    Great video, fangraphs better start addressing these criticisms

  • @Rondell24
    @Rondell24 Před rokem +1

    Really loved this video, thank you for this! Subbbedddddddd

  • @Mike44715
    @Mike44715 Před 8 měsíci

    this is a fantastic video man

  • @PulpZero
    @PulpZero Před rokem +1

    Really great analysis. As someone that had considered himself a believer in WAR, I'm surprised to find out that the replacement player isn't something that is collectively defined one year to the next. This seems like an inherent problem to the statistic that adds a layer of abstraction when one isn't necessarily needed, right? Like, why go through all of this trouble to compare an individual against a "replacement player" when league wide averages can just be used? Put another way, wouldn't comparing varying averages across positions and between positions, and looking at how many standard deviations away from the pack the player is be more useful than trying to create/hypothesize out how well the "average" AAA replacement player would perform? There just doesn't seem to be any need to compare how well, say, a first baseman hits compared to someone brought up, when you could just compare said first baseman against the average for all hitters who were playing first base? Using this metric would also account for changes across time in how the game is being played, or what the expectations are for a given position.
    Sorry for the wall of text. Great vid. Subscribed.

  • @Changsnoop
    @Changsnoop Před rokem +1

    Fangraphs should hire you

  • @stop....hammertime
    @stop....hammertime Před rokem

    I'm going to put this on my TV, and rewatch this. This seems more understandable, as compared to other things I've read explaining war. How in the f can I build a whole damn house, but not understand this. You meddling kids😂

  • @tylerlaforte9825
    @tylerlaforte9825 Před 3 měsíci

    You could explain WAR to me 100 times and I’ll never fully understand it lol

  • @bobluchetta-stendel3863
    @bobluchetta-stendel3863 Před rokem +1

    This video made me hate WAR more, but I still appreciate your use of the metric

  • @mtache4652
    @mtache4652 Před 6 měsíci

    did you delete the best players time-lapse in the meantime? can't seem to find it

  • @JayTemple
    @JayTemple Před rokem

    Love the electronic voices reading the Tweets. If you've never heard "They're Coming to Take Me Away, Ha-Haaa!" look it up.

  • @HoraceKock
    @HoraceKock Před rokem

    that intro made me want bloodbowl but baseball

  • @BKFS-ls9by
    @BKFS-ls9by Před rokem +6

    My main issue with WAR is that DH’s are penalized too much. Hypothetically, I’d rather have an above average DH than a good defensive CF who hits slightly under average, but somehow his WAR will come out slightly better because of his defense. I feel like WAR in that case doesn’t provide an accurate comparison

    • @cowaylon1681
      @cowaylon1681 Před rokem +1

      Depends on what above average is. A problem with full time DHs is that they're DHs because they're a liability in the field so the CF will probably be the better player hypothetically.
      Obviously you'd take Big Papi or Edgar Martinez over Kevin Kiermaier but they were a lot more than "above average"

    • @pablogutierrez5767
      @pablogutierrez5767 Před rokem +2

      @@cowaylon1681 and also it's important to consider that by definition every DH needs to be an above average hitter to be useful, if that's their only quality then they'd better be damn good at it
      in that way I do think that the defensive adjustment needs to be updated but it's a good way to go about it in general

  • @hunterjessup
    @hunterjessup Před rokem +4

    "WAR, huh, yeah! What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!"

    • @JayTemple
      @JayTemple Před rokem +1

      You're not the millionth person to make that joke, but you're probably the thousandth. (I was probably the hundredth.)

  • @JJBTEXAS494
    @JJBTEXAS494 Před rokem

    Ctrl+Shift+Direction Arrow will quick select the cells in a column/row. Quicker than holding shift and selecting.