I had a whole part of the video that I cut for time where I mentioned trying to include EVERY contract of $100+ million is extremely hard since there's no one source with all those contracts and extensions and that I probably missed a few. After the video was posted, I definitely did miss a few... Matt Cain should be #3. Inflation adjusted contract was $115.7 million. Accumulated -1.7 WAR. Total of -$68 million per WAR. David Wright should be at #8 with 7 years, $149.2 million, got 2.7 WAR, for a total of $55.3 million per WAR. As far as others that have commonly come up in the comments... Jason Heyward - #16 8 years, $185 million, 8.9 WAR, $20.8 million per WAR. Jacoby Ellsbury - #23 7 years, $160 million, 9.9 WAR, $16.2 million per WAR Johan Santana - #34 6 years, $179 million, 15.5 WAR, $11.6 million per WAR Others not eligible for JUST being under $100 million... Jason Bay, BJ Upton, Pablor Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez Not eligible for including arbitration years... Yoenis Cespedes
Eric Hosmer to the Padres/Red Sox (mostly the Padres since they're paying for most of it) is going to be up there when that contract finishes up. Dude was atrocious on offense and defense in his time here.
It's definitely up there, but he was really good defensively, and (just to be the devil's advocate here) I'm not sure if you can put a price tag on breaking the curse. That game 7 was a roller coaster.
" decent glove"!! He had a 5 out a 6 year gold glove streak! And...AND. J Wood has a 4th or 5th outfielder spot on the Dodgers right now cuz of his gold glove mainly. Tho, he has a new ish swing I'm spring training so far, hitting off of Gonsolin and Julio Urais deep n well , while rest of dodgers r striking out everywhere off of em. It's been a pitchers game so far in LAD spring training inter squad games. - " it's a good day for baseball...."! - Vin Scully RIP, you beautiful man you! He was the one guy who every team and every fan loved as much as the dodgers almost. Every team honored him this year when going to LA. Even Giants skip- Gabe Kaplan said:. Weather you love or HATE the Dodgers, you Love Vin Scully. And, the entire family of baseball will be worse off without him". That is a lot coming from a rival and Dodher hater!!
Months after Mo Vaughn's tirade. The Angels won the 2002 World Series, with Troy Percival closing out many high leverage situations, including two series clinchers.
Maybe so but Mo was spot on. He'd done a lot more than any of the Angels players ever had. Percival should have just kept his mouth shut. I applaud Moreno for spending money but the Angels have a terrible front office.
Damn, He didn't even mention the Vernon Wells 126m contract with the Angels either... Us Angels fans are praying for the day that Arte finally sells the team 😭
@@unclejuan2274 he gives a set amount that the team can spend, and the team makes moves with the money. If I worked at an Amazon warehouse, Jeff bezos is the one who writes the checks, but he doesn’t decide who is employeed
The Mike Hampton deal is eerily similar to how another previous Rockies splurge played out. A few years prior, they tried the exact same thing with a big deal to Darryl Kile. Like Hampton, he would also have two terrible years in Colorado and then would mercifully be traded to St Louis. He would revive his career after leaving Coors before his sudden death in 2002. So basically the story is, dont give out big contracts to sinker ball pitchers to play in Coors. Also fun fact about Zimmermann. He was the reason the Nats didn't land Zack Greinke in 2011 because they were unwilling to move him in a deal.
Coors Field is the graveyard of pitching careers. Do you know of ANYONE that gets at least 20 starts in a season or 50 relief appearances that has anywhere near the WHIP in Denver as away from it? Hampton's agent was a genius to get him that sort of deal.
If you do this list next year, Miggy will be right up towards the top. His 8 year $240 million contract (~$307,00,000 by today's value) has so far netted 2.9 fWAR or 3.0 bWAR. If he plays next season at a -1 fWAR (just based on recent trends and I'm being generous there), a total of 1.9 fWAR will be about ~$161 million per win above replacement. That is a disastrous contract.
@@BaseballsNotDead Do you think considerations should be made for stuff like the fact that signing Corbin was pretty key to the 2019 WS run for the Nats? I'm not saying it was 4D chess because I don't think it was, but the way it's worked out, I think the Nats are for the most part fine with eating the rest of the contract while not being competitive even if he is the worst pitcher in baseball.
@@Falllll Very similar to Barry Zito on this list. A list like this isn't going to factor that in, but I do think when talking about it making a callout like that is important. From a fan perspective, Corbin played a very important role in the Nationals most important season and you can't take that away from him.
@@John_Notmylastname obviously they overpay, but the contract is backloaded so that its cheaper in the first few years. That allows the team to sign more players for their window. Also the salary cap increases every year so the big years at the end of the contract arent as tough to swallow. If the Tigers won a championship during the first few years of the contract when Miggy was still at his peak, then it would make sense, but they didnt and now its history.
Since the formula breaks with negative WAR, you should’ve looked up the average cost per WAR paid that season (people estimate this year by year), multiplied that by the negative WAR, and added that to what they paid for the contract to show total dollars lost. This would’ve given a more useful numerical figure for the worst contracts. Loved the video and subbed though.
@@lukea.907 it's not that having a smaller negative WAR is worse, its that the team is effectively 'getting paid' less per negative win. imagine that somehow a ham sandwich got signed to a contract stipulating it would start at left field. the team with the ham sandwich might be willing to trade away the ham sandwich plus cash, and in that case the team receiving the cash would be willing to receive negative WAR in exchange for cash: they would like to be paid more per negative win.
I was totally waiting for clips of Troy Percival closing out 2002 World Series game 7 after the long Mo Vaughn quote about him never pitching in big games and getting any hardware.
Shocked that Yoenis Cespedes extension after 2016 didn’t make the list. I’m actually shocked that no Mets albatross contracts made the list. Being a Mets fan I see that as a win.
@@arthurcooperman3106 Wright should've made the list. I missed that one. Comes in at #8 with 7 years, $149.2 million, got 2.7 WAR, for a total of $55.3 million per WAR. Santana had 6 years, $179 million, 15.5 WAR, for a total of $11.6 million per WAR. That would make him #34.
@@BaseballsNotDead It pains me that Wright would make this list. I don't dispute your methods or results, only my own personal affection for the player.
Side note Jerry Dipoto did not want to Sign Hamilton or Pujols but Arte Moreno forced him too. Along with the manager not buying in into Dipoto’s analytical approach and Moreno siding with Scioscia forced Dipoto out of LA and to the Mariners.
Yep. Dipoto actually wanted to resign Greinke. And in the end, they both got the same amount of money, but Hamilton had one less year. Just imagine Greinke on the 14-15 Angels, that could've made them World Series contenders.
@@SmoothCriminal12 I think Greinke’s portion is actually way more sinister, and it ties back into Hamilton. We all know Moreno only wants to profit off of big stars, but on top of that, he happens to be a conservative nut job. This more than anything makes him completely ignorant to the struggles of other people, specifically addicts in Hamilton’s case and for Greinke, his mental health struggles. I wouldn’t be surprised if he felt Greinke’s weird antics and coping with depression completely confused Moreno and convinced him to hand Greinke to the Dodgers. Which worked out for Greinke since he played some of his best seasons with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks and has gotten the help he needs from every other team he’s been to, but still speaks to how Moreno is not only corrupt, but toxic.
@@Gemnist98 What does conservative views have to do with the logic of choosing contracts? Why you people keep throwing your political views where they are not warranted?
@@Peter-ok9bj well most of the time conservative viewing people view people with Mental Disabilities as weak or soft. Not saying all conservatives do but most of them are that way. Moreno is a rich dude who doesn’t care about winning at all and only wants to make a profit.
You can totally see the difference in Ryan Howard's swing before and after the Achilles injury. Sad to hear stories like that. I remember watching him in his MVP/WS seasons and he was a beast.
You have quickly become one of my favorite baseball youtubers, mainly due to what you mentioned at the beginning with being objective as possible by crunching numbers. Really impressed with your "baseball inflation" to equal the playing field
I distinctly remember decrying the Howard contract the day it was signed. I was shopping with my wife and saw it on a sports show ticker and I couldn't believe it.
9.9 WAR during his time with the Yankees. He wasn't worth the contract, but wasn't dumpster fire bad... which feels like a pretty backhanded compliment.
As a Giants fan, I have to say Barry Zito’s contract was totally worth it like you mentioned…. That was apart of the catalyst for a Dynasty!! I remember that game like it was yesterday!
Your channel is one of the most underrated baseball YT channels out there (how the hell you only have less than 8k subs.....???). The only other channel i would compare you to is Jomboy. Your attention to detail, story telling and the obvious love for the game of baseball really shows in each of your videos. Keep up the great work, and I look forward to seeing more stellar videos, from you, covering the greatest game in the world, baseball.
25:52 ..I like the way you switched “adding insult to injury..” to “adding injury to insult” ..very subtle & some very impressive writing/preparation ..so awesomely subtle that I started writing this comment explaining why you said it backwards.. as I was typing I realized the insult (losing the series) did proceed the actual injury. Well done my friend 👌
This was a famous Peter Mcgowan signing. He wanted Zito, and the Giants somehow didn't notice that Zito had lost about 3 precious MPH off of his fastball, and suddenly was throwing an average 89 mph instead of 92. I remember in the offseason after the trade but before his first full season, it came out that Zito was working on a new windup to increase his power. Everyone was like "huh??!?" He then changed his mind and went with his normal wind up, but as soon as that first season started he was awful. Bad start after bad start, and everyone was wondering what the deal was. But to Zito's credit, he played out his entire contract. He never gave up, didn't retire, and did indeed give us those 2 crucial starts in 2012 in the post season, without which we wouldn't have won the WS. but yeah, he was awful.
This video is already sad (although very well done, great job!) but I am very sad to see Upton on his list. Loved watching him as I got into baseball, and he even landed on my favorite team, the Mariners, this year. Even though he put up bad numbers for Seattle, he’s one of my favorite players ever. I knew his contract was bad but it’s sad to see that it’s one of the worst ever.
Ramen ain't bad. Should all be lucky to make a living playing a game. MOST humans, including the majority (over 50% if that helps) struggle to pay bills working jobs we don't "play"
@@TheWeeToddTwo things can be true at once, and it hurts everyone to act like it doesn’t. Most people work shit jobs for shit pay, as the people at the top of their industries take far more than their share. That can include people who “play” their work.
On Albert Belle, it was a reflection of the Orioles at the time. We had just lost Palmeiro to free agency (replaced by Will Clark...literally we traded Palmeiro for Belle, which is basically equal) and he didn't have much protection around him. For the two years we had him, he lived up to his contract. The rest of the team just imploded (although 1999, there were a few amazing years from Brady Anderson and BJ Surhoff) and ultimately, Albert couldn't pitch.
It's insane how many former/current studs those 99 Orioles had in their lineup. Belle, Clark, Brady, Ripken, Charles Johnson and career seasons from guys like BJ Surhoff and Mike Bordick. But unfortunately they're pitching aside from Mussina was bad and this was around the time the Yankees and Red Sox started taking over the East permanently.
Angelos got Belle simply because he didn't want the Yankees to get him. I hated the move because I disliked Belle as a player immensely, but he had talent. Had it not been for the hip problem, I am sure he would have hit a lot more homers and fellow players going forward.
@@Cueil Heyward earned roughly 20 mil per war, more than the others on this list. His first 6 seasons he averaged a 5 war, in 7 seasons with the Cubs, 1.3. With a salary of 23 mil/year, Harpers 25 mil/year is one of the biggest bargains in the MLB. He's built like a defensive lineman with an undercut swing like Juan Pierre, where the bulk of his hits were duck snorts over the middle of infielders head.
Andruw Jones contract always made me sad. He was my favorite non-Cardinals player cause of Slugfest 2004. I really thought he'd go down as a top 5 all time centerfielder. Real shame injuries derail so many great centerfielders careers. Cost of being able to get to any and every ball I guess.
@@civilwarwasaninsidejob7405 Wasn’t he implicated in PED usage? Something I’m not bothered by from players or that era. It lessens the cheating aspect when the whole league is using, only the record deserve an asterisk. If I’m a diet poor Dominican with a change to earn generational difference wealth even if it means cutting corners can anyone blame some of these guys?
@chicagodude8888 thankfully Jones has never had any ties to steriods. But I wouldn't be shocked if he did take them. I never believe a guy who says he did or did not anymore 😂 I agree though those guys belong. MLB was sure happy to make millions upon millions from them when Selig knew what the heck was going on.
We Giants fans will NEVER FORGET Barry Zito's 2012 season and post season...we will also NEVER FORGET that 2012 was the only year in the 7 seasons he pitched for us that he did not have a losing record as a starter. We also will NEVER FORGET that Zito was the highest paid player on the Giants squad in 2010 when they won their first chip since leaving NY, and Zito was left off of the post-season roster. So we raise our glasses to Barry Zito for the 2012 LCS & WS starts ( he even had an RBI hit in both) he was a big reason we won it all that year....but we still realize that Zito was a big waste of money..
Undoubtedly the Giants paid about TWICE what they should have for "Captain Quirk", but I don't see him as a waste of ALL the money. Please keep in mind that he had two GREAT seasons in Oakland (2001 and 2002), and afterwards, meh...his numbers, save for that nosedive in 2011, across the Bay were more or less the same as his 2003-2006 Oakland seasons. There was way too much expectation in SF, especially with Barry Bonds' completing his chase of the career home run record in Barry first Giants season, that he'd carry the franchise. If he really were that good, Billy Beane, especially after that successful 2006 season, would have found a way to keep him in Oakland. Barry Zito gave what could reasonably be expected of him, not what Giants fans unrealistically hoped for.
I think it's all because once he was with the Giants he stopped lifting his arms over his head in his windup. Even with the A's in 2006 his Fastball velo dropped but he still had a decent 2006. Once he got the SF he didn't lift his arms over his head anymore and that's when the problems started. He still had the best curveball ever though.
Funny enough, it was something similar thing with Mo Vaughn and the Angels. Best thing he did for the club was bring over Kevin Appier from the Mets. Appier helped pitch the the Angels to their first World Series. It was almost poetic that the guys we got from the Mets helped answer Mo’s “Whet have the Angels ever done?” comment the year prior.
Zito was objectively a terrible contract for the Giants. Prior to October 2012 both fans and media were destroying him. You can appreciate his performance in one October and still agree his time with the Giants was otherwise disastrous.
I love your analytics based videos. Shows you have a head for numbers and that you don’t just go with the typical MLB/news media analysis for making your lists. I’d like to see a video that shows the decline of the Arizona Diamondbacks from their 2001 World Series win to being one of the worst teams in baseball. I’d like to see if it proves my personal theory that the management’s (front office down to on-field manager) decisions have killed this team. I have specific decisions in mind and timeframes in mind. Reply if interested in theories.
I remember before the season started I think, after Boston signed Crawford, he had mentioned that the Red Sox creeped him out because they said that they had a surveillance team on him or something? I remember something along those lines, and he publicly said that it made him uncomfortable, and I remember thinking that it was a pretty awful way to start his career with the team and then of course he was awful for the Red Sox. I can't believe they would admit to something like that, I would just keep that secret for life and not let someone know that they're being watched, paranoia can do awful things to a player's psyche. He was better with the Dodgers too, his OBP almost got back up to his normal levels, but he couldn't stay healthy so obviously that was a factor as well, but I sometimes wonder if he just wanted to get out of Boston right away.
@@BaseballsNotDead Yep, Chipper was always solid. I feel like Rolen broke down a little towards the end. I'd have to look it up. Jeter was always constant. Where does A-Rod show up?
Rolen broke down in the middle of the contract, but rebounded the last two years (5.2 and 4.1 WAR). A-Rod's deal with the Rangers rates pretty high... especially since he opted out of the last 3 years. His extension with the Yankees... not so much.
I think part of why most players don’t live up to the contract towards the end is largely a product of how the system is structured. Players don’t get to the point of signing one of these contracts until they’ve had six years of MLB service. So when you factor out that after six years that they may be signing for 8+ years one has to then think about how old the player is going to be in the later years of that deal. And that’s of course assuming they sign the long term deal at the first chance. Some of worse long deals of course are the ones that aren’t right away when the player is even older. For instance if you sign a guy when he is 30 to a 10 year deal you already know he’s not going to perform up to the deal at the end because of how old he’s going to be. I think that structure contributes a lot to why so many of those deals don’t play out over the term. When you have to wait six years to get to free agency it’s natural your most productive years are going to be prior to the big deal. I tend to think that the long big deals are paying for what the player has already done at a discount more than paying for what they’re going to do. But thanks to the market teams don’t have much of a choice but to do the long deals if they want to land bigger name guys. You’re essentially betting on the player being super productive in the early years and winning games with them to make the later years worth it when their production declines with their age. For example, if I signed a guy to 10 years but my team won a couple rings supported by his production for the first five years I could live with the later years because I got championships from the deal. I know that when they’re older they won’t perform at the top levels so my gamble is that I can cash in in the early years of the deal which lets you live with the bad years. The issue is when you do these deals and they never live up to it. The gamble of chasing the big names knowing how you have to accept the risk of their older years.
Realizing who number 1 was before the reveal hurt me as a Phillies fan. I used to call him my favorite player and I still have his jersey. And now I’m sad about him again. Pain.
I saw the video title as well and my mind jumped right to Howard instantly. It still hurts till this day because he helped us win the WS, but after that…… the horror.
Great video. I had no idea how bad some of these contracts were! Barry Zito being on this list hurts me though. Mathematically I get why, but he exited the game as a hero.
@@Peter-ok9bj Of course. But since it was mentioned that the list is only for completed contracts, I'm talking about this specific vid. I fully expected to see a Padre or two. But then I remembered that before the current ownership the team was cheao AF so I don't there actually were any $100+m contracts. 🤣
Cost per war seems like a very good indicator of contract value since winning is why you play. Some other factors may add or subtract but on the field that is it, how much do wins cost a team?
I had almost missed it because in my mind his initial 2 year extension, which included some arbitration years, was part of his massive extension. Once I realized they were separate, he was an easy #1.
@@BaseballsNotDead hard to top that, I lived through those years and it was so depressing. Thank goodness the Phils made the WS this year to put that time deep in the past
I liked Mo Vaughn as an Angel. He struck out too much in 2000 (181 K's) and his OB% wasn't great (.365), but was still a dangerous hitter. Then sat out all of 2001 due to injury. Signed with the Mets in 2002. What about the Angels? Percival had a career year as a closer in 2002 (40 saves, 1.92 ERA). Troy Glaus and quiet-but-solid Garrett Anderson were the most feared hitters in the lineup that featured a buncha non-stars (sorry Salmon), but many had a career year or very good season (Spezio, Fullmer, Kennedy, Eckstein). So without a super star, the Angels won the World Series... and have quickly forgot the formula that made them winners in 2002!
You struck me deep with putting Barry Zito on here as a Cardinals fan. I remember that playoff series and we were convinced going into that game we were on our way to another world series appearance.
Numbers wise sure though his relationship with the media and really his personality in general would've made it an uphill battle. When he was forced into retirement Bill Madden wrote an article with the general sentiment of couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Whether you think that would've been fair to him is another discussion.
@@bigbearkat2010 I always felt that if your numbers are there, you're in. The whole media relationship stuff is kinda bs to me. I realize that you want players who display excellence on and off the field to represent your game. BUT plenty of bad people are in the hall of fame. Every Era had differing values, so someone who was stand up then or now could be viewed as a bad person.
Hey man awesome video! I for sure thought Jason Schmidt’s dodger contract would be on here. I think he only made a few starts for them. Where did he rank out of curiosity?
I really enjoy your channel. Very interesting stuff. I'm a baseball geek since I was 7, I'm 53. I always wanted to do this type of thing that you do. Great job and I'll continue to enjoy your channel.
Nice entertaining video, but I wish you had used bWAR per 100 Million as your measure instead of Millions per bWAR. That way your formula wouldn't have exploded when bWAR turned negative for the last three and would've looked more consistent :)
I thought for sure Kevin brown would have made this list. Now I have to go look at his stats. As a giants fan I’m shocked Matt Cain wasn’t on here. It was literally like the SECOND he finally Got paid, he COMPLETELY forgot how to pitch EDIT: Brown came back from injury waaaay better than I remembered it being as a kid
It's funny that everyone thinks the brown contract was horrible. He was an Ace for 3 years, was injured and good 2 years, and injured and bad for 2 years. He was worth an average of 3 war per year for his contract.
In 2019 I applied for a baseball publication with an article I had written about this topic. The media promotes these contracts and the market drives bigger and bigger contracts but the chance of the contracts being bad for the team is way too high.
I can. He cheated to inflate his numbers, found some owner stupid enough to veto his own front office to sign him for crazy money, got married, became a dad, and then essentially retired a rich man. Chris played the Orioles like the two bit operation they became under Angelos.
And that rookie Rusney Castillo! Grrr lol and right when they each signed I even bought an overpriced autograph card of each to add my "Redsox" collection lol
Carl Crawford was lucky that his free agent class was weak with him being the best position player available. Cano was one of the top 5-8 players in the MLB at the time he hit free agency but he also benefited from being a FA In a weak class because he would of never gotten 250 million if there was better players available.
The Chris Davis deal is why I fear the Yankees giving Judge a mega-contract of more than 6 years. He is the same age and hit a ton of homers in the last few years, but has been injury prone and strikes out a lot.
Judge is a hell of a player but I wouldn't give him more than a 6 year deal. But the Yankees are desperate because without Judge they are nothing even with Stanton on the team and look at how his contract has aged? If he wasn't playing he would be in the top 10 of those bad contracts.
@@jadprinz482 Do you see Davis' numbers before the albatross contract was given to him and he sucked? 100+ RBI's and 50+ homers before that contract. Judge hits for a better average but my point is that you don't pony up a huge contract for a guy in his 30's, because he could end up on this list in the future. I love Judge but he's not worth 8 years at 40 mil, and won't be putting up those numbers in 3-4 years.
Working on it. Maybe in a week. It's a lot easier to find clips of players doing good things than bad things, so this video should have a quicker turnaround.
That story about the Red Sox pitching staff sitting around the clubhouse slamming Miller Lites, playing Xbox, and eating Popeyes will forever be my favorite image in baseball lore
As an Orioles fan, Chris Davis' contract was easily one of the worst I've ever seen. That money could have definitely been used to develop more prospects, considering most of our guys (JJ Hardy, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado) were either heading to other teams or retiring. This contract also taught me that Scott Boras could sell water to a fish. I mean, it was a really clueless fish, but a fish nonetheless.
Corbin... ooof. At the time I was desperate for the Yankees to start spending more money... I would have taken anyone... I'm glad they didn't get Corbin
Albert Belle was the meanest most frightening humans to ever play baseball. That 95 Indians lineup was so good Manny Ramirez batted 8th or 9th. I remember when he chased a group of kids in his car for egging his house. I can't believe there was a kid dumb enough to do that shit. But if he was on your team and you weren't a member of the local media, you loved the guy. I got to see him live for my Indians, the white Sox, and Baltimore at Camden Yards.
Can probably figure out why Moneyball appealed to me in the first place. Baseball finances and contracts versus results on the field are like kitty litter to me.
Joey Albert Belle and his twin brother are from my hometown. Their dad was a baseball coach at one of the high schools here wayyyyy back when they were young. He was a great coach, from what I hear around from people around here who played for him in high school. Prince Fielder isn't an icon. CECIL FIELDER is a friggin ICON. His son is just extremely popular compared to his dad.
I always thought it was wild that baseball contracts are guaranteed. Like dishing out millions not knowing if that dude will actually play is insane. Do they just have good agents? Like other sports only guarantee so much while the rest is play dependent, why not baseball?
The MLB is unique in that they've never managed to get their player union under control. That's why; the player union has dominated the terms and has negotiated by far the best deals for their guys. It's why the modern MLB is so utterly broken with constant roster churn in search for young cheap players and disproportionately high contracts for productive veterans with very little in between. The NHL used to be the worst-managed 'Big 4' (for facing the same issues the current MLB is facing now) but MLB has taken over the #1 spot in the past decade or so with and a grim financial outlook.
I think the worst contract I’ve seen could be the Angels signing Anthony Rendon (7yr/$245mil), or, or maybe the Angels signing CJ Wilson (5 yr/$77.5mil), or maybe when the Angels signed Josh Hamilton (5yr/$125mil), or when the Angels traded for Vernon Wells (4yr/$86mil), possibly when the Angels traded for Justin Upton (5yr/$106mil), and screw it I’ll throw in when the Angels signed Zack Cozart (3yr/$38mil)
Aside from the issues with negative WAR, I feel like dividing by WAR has major flaws when you have very small numbers. I think anyone would agree that spending $150m for 0.2 WAR would be a far worse contract than spending $100m for 0.1 WAR, but it would be ranked as a "better" contract. Not sure what would be a good fix, but this current approach can definitely be improved.
I have an idea. Since the lowest WAR in any given year seems to be about -2 and we are measuring worst contracts, how about adding 2*(length of contract) to the denominator? For my above example of $150m for 0.2 WAR vs $100m for 0.1 WAR, lets assume both are 5 year contracts. The metric for the first contract would be $150m/10.2 = $14.7m. The second contract would be $100m/10.1 = $9.9m. The first contract would be clearly worse using this new metric as it should be. This metric is measuring against the very worst player in any given year rather than just a replacement level player, so it seems to be more fitting for a "worst of" list.
Trouble with long-term contracts is the player is not the same player he was at the beginning. Most of the time, the teams can't wait to get rid of them.
He didn't mention it for every player but I know when Hamilton was traded back to the Rangers from the Angels, the Angels were paying 24 of the 25 million annually whereas the Rangers were only paying nearly league minimum for his services.
Interesting thing about Hampton's 2001 season, he was actually good in the first half which hence his All Star selection as the guy kept his ERA below 4. But then after the AS break...
Would be interesting to see his stats break down for home and away. Due to the altitude. Did his hitting only increase at home and his pitching get worse at home or was it even from home and away
@@kaleaf101 From what I got according to the game logs, it was June where you can see signs in which things begins to go wrong. He was actually fine in both home and road until that point.
@@iamhungey12345 So it was just a down trend over all. It would still be interesting to look at all the data and see how much the altitude effects all pitchers and batters
Funny thing about Jordan Zimmermann is that the Tigers let Max Scherzer go that offseason, where he eventually signed with Jordan’s Nationals. From that exchange the tigers saved $8mil per year and Scherzer finished top 5 in CY Young voting each of the next 5 years.
Scherzer’s contract was $100 million more than Zimmermans. Tigers offered max $150 million nats signed him for $210 million. Zimmerman got $110 million.
Carl Crawford may have appeared to be a prototypical leadoff hitter, but in his time in Tampa he made it known he hated batting leadoff and wanted to be left out of that spot in the lineup. He was analytically supported though, because before the end of Longoria's rookie year he was their best hitter and thus he batted second more than he ever led off.
Thanks Artie, there are 5 of 10 bad contracts because Albert was left off. The good news is you are selling and NOBODY can mess the Angels up more than you. Mike Trout will probably where his high school jersey into the HOF.
Artie didn’t sign Vaughn. Besides the increased use of the shift vs left handed hitters is what killed Hamilton along with the swing and miss issues but if they banned the shift most of these players wouldn’t be on this list.
I had a whole part of the video that I cut for time where I mentioned trying to include EVERY contract of $100+ million is extremely hard since there's no one source with all those contracts and extensions and that I probably missed a few. After the video was posted, I definitely did miss a few...
Matt Cain should be #3. Inflation adjusted contract was $115.7 million. Accumulated -1.7 WAR. Total of -$68 million per WAR.
David Wright should be at #8 with 7 years, $149.2 million, got 2.7 WAR, for a total of $55.3 million per WAR.
As far as others that have commonly come up in the comments...
Jason Heyward - #16 8 years, $185 million, 8.9 WAR, $20.8 million per WAR.
Jacoby Ellsbury - #23 7 years, $160 million, 9.9 WAR, $16.2 million per WAR
Johan Santana - #34 6 years, $179 million, 15.5 WAR, $11.6 million per WAR
Others not eligible for JUST being under $100 million...
Jason Bay, BJ Upton, Pablor Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez
Not eligible for including arbitration years...
Yoenis Cespedes
Vernon Wells? 7 years $124 Million, somehow traded twice on that awful contract.
@@FunkinItUp08 Vernon Wells - #14 7 years, $153.6 million, 6.8 WAR, $22.6 million per WAR.
For whatever it's worth, the Angels television contract(s) allow them to be the great attractor of hideous contracts.
@@BaseballsNotDead right on, knew he’d be close. Love all the videos and keep up the great work.
Eric Hosmer to the Padres/Red Sox (mostly the Padres since they're paying for most of it) is going to be up there when that contract finishes up. Dude was atrocious on offense and defense in his time here.
Jason Heyward's contract was a hefty price for a decent glove in right field and a motivational speaker...
I was surprised not to see him on the list
He should be number 1. Worst FA signing in league history. Most expensive hooker ever. $184 million to suck d*ck
It's definitely up there, but he was really good defensively, and (just to be the devil's advocate here) I'm not sure if you can put a price tag on breaking the curse. That game 7 was a roller coaster.
That’s what I was gonna say. Every Cubs fan would’ve voted to have that money added to their taxes if you guaranteed it would end the streak
" decent glove"!! He had a 5 out a 6 year gold glove streak! And...AND. J Wood has a 4th or 5th outfielder spot on the Dodgers right now cuz of his gold glove mainly. Tho, he has a new ish swing I'm spring training so far, hitting off of Gonsolin and Julio Urais deep n well , while rest of dodgers r striking out everywhere off of em. It's been a pitchers game so far in LAD spring training inter squad games. - " it's a good day for baseball...."!
- Vin Scully
RIP, you beautiful man you! He was the one guy who every team and every fan loved as much as the dodgers almost. Every team honored him this year when going to LA. Even Giants skip- Gabe Kaplan said:. Weather you love or HATE the Dodgers, you Love Vin Scully. And, the entire family of baseball will be worse off without him". That is a lot coming from a rival and Dodher hater!!
Months after Mo Vaughn's tirade. The Angels won the 2002 World Series, with Troy Percival closing out many high leverage situations, including two series clinchers.
Then they ruined Trouts career
Maybe so but Mo was spot on. He'd done a lot more than any of the Angels players ever had. Percival should have just kept his mouth shut. I applaud Moreno for spending money but the Angels have a terrible front office.
Then are finding ways to waste Ohtani's career though.
@@KazeShikamaru Othani should be gone by next year if he isn't traded.
@@Peter-ok9bj yup.
Damn, He didn't even mention the Vernon Wells 126m contract with the Angels either... Us Angels fans are praying for the day that Arte finally sells the team 😭
Blue jays legend
Arte isn’t the one making these moves, the front office decides what happens
Haven’t heard that name in a while. Vernon wells was solid but I don’t remember his time on the angels
@@pohorex6834he writes the checks lol
@@unclejuan2274 he gives a set amount that the team can spend, and the team makes moves with the money. If I worked at an Amazon warehouse, Jeff bezos is the one who writes the checks, but he doesn’t decide who is employeed
God, that clip of Howard tearing his Achilles on the groundout still haunts me. I’m so happy we just added playoff memories
“has he ever pitched in a game that meant something”
narrator voice:
“he would in fact go on, to pitch in a game that meant something.”
The Mike Hampton deal is eerily similar to how another previous Rockies splurge played out. A few years prior, they tried the exact same thing with a big deal to Darryl Kile. Like Hampton, he would also have two terrible years in Colorado and then would mercifully be traded to St Louis.
He would revive his career after leaving Coors before his sudden death in 2002. So basically the story is, dont give out big contracts to sinker ball pitchers to play in Coors.
Also fun fact about Zimmermann. He was the reason the Nats didn't land Zack Greinke in 2011 because they were unwilling to move him in a deal.
DK57 wasn't a sinkerballer. He had a mean 4 seamer and big 12-6 hook. Curves are notoriously bad at Coors
Coors Field is the graveyard of pitching careers. Do you know of ANYONE that gets at least 20 starts in a season or 50 relief appearances that has anywhere near the WHIP in Denver as away from it? Hampton's agent was a genius to get him that sort of deal.
Hampton could rake at the plate for a pitcher tho. Always loved him. My worth the money tho lol
If you do this list next year, Miggy will be right up towards the top. His 8 year $240 million contract (~$307,00,000 by today's value) has so far netted 2.9 fWAR or 3.0 bWAR. If he plays next season at a -1 fWAR (just based on recent trends and I'm being generous there), a total of 1.9 fWAR will be about ~$161 million per win above replacement. That is a disastrous contract.
Miggy, Strasburg, Corbin, Hosmer, and Rendon are all going to be up there.
I’ll never understand teams signing these 10 year contracts. It’s insane.
@@BaseballsNotDead Do you think considerations should be made for stuff like the fact that signing Corbin was pretty key to the 2019 WS run for the Nats? I'm not saying it was 4D chess because I don't think it was, but the way it's worked out, I think the Nats are for the most part fine with eating the rest of the contract while not being competitive even if he is the worst pitcher in baseball.
@@Falllll Very similar to Barry Zito on this list. A list like this isn't going to factor that in, but I do think when talking about it making a callout like that is important. From a fan perspective, Corbin played a very important role in the Nationals most important season and you can't take that away from him.
@@John_Notmylastname obviously they overpay, but the contract is backloaded so that its cheaper in the first few years. That allows the team to sign more players for their window. Also the salary cap increases every year so the big years at the end of the contract arent as tough to swallow. If the Tigers won a championship during the first few years of the contract when Miggy was still at his peak, then it would make sense, but they didnt and now its history.
Yo that smile josh Hamilton gave at the courthouse kinda creeped me out ngl
Since the formula breaks with negative WAR, you should’ve looked up the average cost per WAR paid that season (people estimate this year by year), multiplied that by the negative WAR, and added that to what they paid for the contract to show total dollars lost. This would’ve given a more useful numerical figure for the worst contracts.
Loved the video and subbed though.
Agreed... then he says "the smaller negative WAR is worse" ummm yea only in your world haha I'll take -0.4 player over -2.4 player obviously
@@lukea.907 it's not that having a smaller negative WAR is worse, its that the team is effectively 'getting paid' less per negative win. imagine that somehow a ham sandwich got signed to a contract stipulating it would start at left field. the team with the ham sandwich might be willing to trade away the ham sandwich plus cash, and in that case the team receiving the cash would be willing to receive negative WAR in exchange for cash: they would like to be paid more per negative win.
@@lukea.907 I meant smaller negative $/WAR
This is the nerdiest comment I have read and I love it
@@jaylong4705 😂 I’m glad
I was totally waiting for clips of Troy Percival closing out 2002 World Series game 7 after the long Mo Vaughn quote about him never pitching in big games and getting any hardware.
Shocked that Yoenis Cespedes extension after 2016 didn’t make the list. I’m actually shocked that no Mets albatross contracts made the list. Being a Mets fan I see that as a win.
Cespedes didn't make the list because his extension included two arbitration years. Had I included it, it would've come in at #20.
Wright and Santana as well. But I think Wright's 2013 and Santana's 2009/10 seasons were enough to keep them off the list
@@arthurcooperman3106 Wright should've made the list. I missed that one. Comes in at #8 with 7 years, $149.2 million, got 2.7 WAR, for a total of $55.3 million per WAR. Santana had 6 years, $179 million, 15.5 WAR, for a total of $11.6 million per WAR. That would make him #34.
No Mo Vaugh on the Mets?
@@BaseballsNotDead It pains me that Wright would make this list. I don't dispute your methods or results, only my own personal affection for the player.
Side note Jerry Dipoto did not want to Sign Hamilton or Pujols but Arte Moreno forced him too. Along with the manager not buying in into Dipoto’s analytical approach and Moreno siding with Scioscia forced Dipoto out of LA and to the Mariners.
Yeah Moreno has always been more concerned about investing in the sexy marketable players than having a cohesive roster
Yep. Dipoto actually wanted to resign Greinke. And in the end, they both got the same amount of money, but Hamilton had one less year. Just imagine Greinke on the 14-15 Angels, that could've made them World Series contenders.
@@SmoothCriminal12 I think Greinke’s portion is actually way more sinister, and it ties back into Hamilton. We all know Moreno only wants to profit off of big stars, but on top of that, he happens to be a conservative nut job. This more than anything makes him completely ignorant to the struggles of other people, specifically addicts in Hamilton’s case and for Greinke, his mental health struggles. I wouldn’t be surprised if he felt Greinke’s weird antics and coping with depression completely confused Moreno and convinced him to hand Greinke to the Dodgers. Which worked out for Greinke since he played some of his best seasons with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks and has gotten the help he needs from every other team he’s been to, but still speaks to how Moreno is not only corrupt, but toxic.
@@Gemnist98 What does conservative views have to do with the logic of choosing contracts? Why you people keep throwing your political views where they are not warranted?
@@Peter-ok9bj well most of the time conservative viewing people view people with Mental Disabilities as weak or soft. Not saying all conservatives do but most of them are that way. Moreno is a rich dude who doesn’t care about winning at all and only wants to make a profit.
You can totally see the difference in Ryan Howard's swing before and after the Achilles injury. Sad to hear stories like that. I remember watching him in his MVP/WS seasons and he was a beast.
Man still sad to see Ryan Howard’s career end like that. He was one of my favorite players as a kid.
He was such a powerhouse when he was young!
He was always in too much of a hurry to put on his diamond earrings after the game
As a phillies fan,Howard was one of the reasons i got to see a championship parade in my life time...I probably wont see another one again..
Anthony Rendon contract with the Angels is gonna blow this list out of the water
You have quickly become one of my favorite baseball youtubers, mainly due to what you mentioned at the beginning with being objective as possible by crunching numbers. Really impressed with your "baseball inflation" to equal the playing field
Thanks!
this guy maths
I distinctly remember decrying the Howard contract the day it was signed. I was shopping with my wife and saw it on a sports show ticker and I couldn't believe it.
I think they were trying to overly compensate Ryan Howard for keeping him 2 years too long in the minors
because of the ridiculous Jim Thome signing.
I discovered this channel a few days ago, i think I’ve binge watched every video so far.
Keep it up!
Awesome! Thank you!
Shocking that Jacoby Ellsbury did not make this list when he signed with New York
9.9 WAR during his time with the Yankees. He wasn't worth the contract, but wasn't dumpster fire bad... which feels like a pretty backhanded compliment.
@@noreasternbrewmaster8705
Was he still stealing bases? Man was he good for a few years with my Sox
As a Giants fan, I have to say Barry Zito’s contract was totally worth it like you mentioned…. That was apart of the catalyst for a Dynasty!! I remember that game like it was yesterday!
Your channel is one of the most underrated baseball YT channels out there (how the hell you only have less than 8k subs.....???). The only other channel i would compare you to is Jomboy. Your attention to detail, story telling and the obvious love for the game of baseball really shows in each of your videos. Keep up the great work, and I look forward to seeing more stellar videos, from you, covering the greatest game in the world, baseball.
Thanks!
25:52 ..I like the way you switched “adding insult to injury..” to “adding injury to insult” ..very subtle & some very impressive writing/preparation ..so awesomely subtle that I started writing this comment explaining why you said it backwards.. as I was typing I realized the insult (losing the series) did proceed the actual injury. Well done my friend 👌
Yes... I meant to do that and didn't just say the phrase wrong... (shifty eyes)
This was a famous Peter Mcgowan signing. He wanted Zito, and the Giants somehow didn't notice that Zito had lost about 3 precious MPH off of his fastball, and suddenly was throwing an average 89 mph instead of 92. I remember in the offseason after the trade but before his first full season, it came out that Zito was working on a new windup to increase his power. Everyone was like "huh??!?" He then changed his mind and went with his normal wind up, but as soon as that first season started he was awful. Bad start after bad start, and everyone was wondering what the deal was. But to Zito's credit, he played out his entire contract. He never gave up, didn't retire, and did indeed give us those 2 crucial starts in 2012 in the post season, without which we wouldn't have won the WS. but yeah, he was awful.
This video is already sad (although very well done, great job!) but I am very sad to see Upton on his list. Loved watching him as I got into baseball, and he even landed on my favorite team, the Mariners, this year. Even though he put up bad numbers for Seattle, he’s one of my favorite players ever. I knew his contract was bad but it’s sad to see that it’s one of the worst ever.
Every $100 million contract is a bad one as long as minor leaguers are surviving on ramen noodles.
Ramen ain't bad. Should all be lucky to make a living playing a game. MOST humans, including the majority (over 50% if that helps) struggle to pay bills working jobs we don't "play"
@@TheWeeToddTwo things can be true at once, and it hurts everyone to act like it doesn’t. Most people work shit jobs for shit pay, as the people at the top of their industries take far more than their share. That can include people who “play” their work.
No one’s forcing them to play minor league ball
Just like any other job… you want to get paid more either do better or look for something else
It’s the fault of the owners and the league.
On Albert Belle, it was a reflection of the Orioles at the time. We had just lost Palmeiro to free agency (replaced by Will Clark...literally we traded Palmeiro for Belle, which is basically equal) and he didn't have much protection around him. For the two years we had him, he lived up to his contract. The rest of the team just imploded (although 1999, there were a few amazing years from Brady Anderson and BJ Surhoff) and ultimately, Albert couldn't pitch.
Will Clark was a stud everywhere he went but he had the back of a 90 year old man and couldn’t stay healthy after he left us (SF)
It's insane how many former/current studs those 99 Orioles had in their lineup. Belle, Clark, Brady, Ripken, Charles Johnson and career seasons from guys like BJ Surhoff and Mike Bordick. But unfortunately they're pitching aside from Mussina was bad and this was around the time the Yankees and Red Sox started taking over the East permanently.
Angelos got Belle simply because he didn't want the Yankees to get him. I hated the move because I disliked Belle as a player immensely, but he had talent. Had it not been for the hip problem, I am sure he would have hit a lot more homers and fellow players going forward.
Pablo Sandoval, Jacoby Elsburey, Jason Heyward and Andrew Jones and Chris Davis immediately come to mind
I'm surprised Heyward didn't make this list, but maybe his D offset his Offensive war?
@@Cueil Heyward earned roughly 20 mil per war, more than the others on this list. His first 6 seasons he averaged a 5 war, in 7 seasons with the Cubs, 1.3.
With a salary of 23 mil/year, Harpers 25 mil/year is one of the biggest bargains in the MLB.
He's built like a defensive lineman with an undercut swing like Juan Pierre, where the bulk of his hits were duck snorts over the middle of infielders head.
Andruw Jones contract always made me sad. He was my favorite non-Cardinals player cause of Slugfest 2004. I really thought he'd go down as a top 5 all time centerfielder. Real shame injuries derail so many great centerfielders careers. Cost of being able to get to any and every ball I guess.
@@civilwarwasaninsidejob7405 Wasn’t he implicated in PED usage? Something I’m not bothered by from players or that era. It lessens the cheating aspect when the whole league is using, only the record deserve an asterisk. If I’m a diet poor Dominican with a change to earn generational difference wealth even if it means cutting corners can anyone blame some of these guys?
@chicagodude8888 thankfully Jones has never had any ties to steriods. But I wouldn't be shocked if he did take them. I never believe a guy who says he did or did not anymore 😂 I agree though those guys belong. MLB was sure happy to make millions upon millions from them when Selig knew what the heck was going on.
We Giants fans will NEVER FORGET Barry Zito's 2012 season and post season...we will also NEVER FORGET that 2012 was the only year in the 7 seasons he pitched for us that he did not have a losing record as a starter.
We also will NEVER FORGET that Zito was the highest paid player on the Giants squad in 2010 when they won their first chip since leaving NY, and Zito was left off of the post-season roster.
So we raise our glasses to Barry Zito for the 2012 LCS & WS starts ( he even had an RBI hit in both) he was a big reason we won it all that year....but we still realize that Zito was a big waste of money..
Great example. Huge bust.
Undoubtedly the Giants paid about TWICE what they should have for "Captain Quirk", but I don't see him as a waste of ALL the money. Please keep in mind that he had two GREAT seasons in Oakland (2001 and 2002), and afterwards, meh...his numbers, save for that nosedive in 2011, across the Bay were more or less the same as his 2003-2006 Oakland seasons. There was way too much expectation in SF, especially with Barry Bonds' completing his chase of the career home run record in Barry first Giants season, that he'd carry the franchise. If he really were that good, Billy Beane, especially after that successful 2006 season, would have found a way to keep him in Oakland.
Barry Zito gave what could reasonably be expected of him, not what Giants fans unrealistically hoped for.
Barry Zito on paper was a terrible contract but he showed up in the PS when we needed him most and that alone makes it worth it to us
Correct
I think it's all because once he was with the Giants he stopped lifting his arms over his head in his windup. Even with the A's in 2006 his Fastball velo dropped but he still had a decent 2006. Once he got the SF he didn't lift his arms over his head anymore and that's when the problems started. He still had the best curveball ever though.
Funny enough, it was something similar thing with Mo Vaughn and the Angels. Best thing he did for the club was bring over Kevin Appier from the Mets. Appier helped pitch the the Angels to their first World Series. It was almost poetic that the guys we got from the Mets helped answer Mo’s “Whet have the Angels ever done?” comment the year prior.
Barry Zito flamed out but had the most incredible Curve I’ve EVER seen!, like Koufax , it went from players head to ground!
Zito was objectively a terrible contract for the Giants. Prior to October 2012 both fans and media were destroying him. You can appreciate his performance in one October and still agree his time with the Giants was otherwise disastrous.
Most underrated baseball page on CZcams. Love your content man
Glad you think so!
I love your analytics based videos. Shows you have a head for numbers and that you don’t just go with the typical MLB/news media analysis for making your lists. I’d like to see a video that shows the decline of the Arizona Diamondbacks from their 2001 World Series win to being one of the worst teams in baseball. I’d like to see if it proves my personal theory that the management’s (front office down to on-field manager) decisions have killed this team. I have specific decisions in mind and timeframes in mind. Reply if interested in theories.
As a D’backs fan I think you’re right.
Well what else could ruin a MLB team, besides management decisions ?
I'm just curious.
They died
I remember before the season started I think, after Boston signed Crawford, he had mentioned that the Red Sox creeped him out because they said that they had a surveillance team on him or something? I remember something along those lines, and he publicly said that it made him uncomfortable, and I remember thinking that it was a pretty awful way to start his career with the team and then of course he was awful for the Red Sox. I can't believe they would admit to something like that, I would just keep that secret for life and not let someone know that they're being watched, paranoia can do awful things to a player's psyche. He was better with the Dodgers too, his OBP almost got back up to his normal levels, but he couldn't stay healthy so obviously that was a factor as well, but I sometimes wonder if he just wanted to get out of Boston right away.
Can't wait to see the follow up video. What players have ever performed up to their contract in the later parts of it?
As a preview... I'll give you two 8 year deals that aged very well. Scott Rolen with the Cardinals and Chipper Jones' extension with the Braves.
@@BaseballsNotDead Yep, Chipper was always solid. I feel like Rolen broke down a little towards the end. I'd have to look it up. Jeter was always constant. Where does A-Rod show up?
Rolen broke down in the middle of the contract, but rebounded the last two years (5.2 and 4.1 WAR).
A-Rod's deal with the Rangers rates pretty high... especially since he opted out of the last 3 years. His extension with the Yankees... not so much.
@@BaseballsNotDead
Scott Rolen was just an odd duck who didn't want to play in Philly.
Any thoughts of him in the HOF are laughable.
I think part of why most players don’t live up to the contract towards the end is largely a product of how the system is structured. Players don’t get to the point of signing one of these contracts until they’ve had six years of MLB service. So when you factor out that after six years that they may be signing for 8+ years one has to then think about how old the player is going to be in the later years of that deal. And that’s of course assuming they sign the long term deal at the first chance. Some of worse long deals of course are the ones that aren’t right away when the player is even older. For instance if you sign a guy when he is 30 to a 10 year deal you already know he’s not going to perform up to the deal at the end because of how old he’s going to be.
I think that structure contributes a lot to why so many of those deals don’t play out over the term. When you have to wait six years to get to free agency it’s natural your most productive years are going to be prior to the big deal. I tend to think that the long big deals are paying for what the player has already done at a discount more than paying for what they’re going to do. But thanks to the market teams don’t have much of a choice but to do the long deals if they want to land bigger name guys. You’re essentially betting on the player being super productive in the early years and winning games with them to make the later years worth it when their production declines with their age. For example, if I signed a guy to 10 years but my team won a couple rings supported by his production for the first five years I could live with the later years because I got championships from the deal. I know that when they’re older they won’t perform at the top levels so my gamble is that I can cash in in the early years of the deal which lets you live with the bad years. The issue is when you do these deals and they never live up to it. The gamble of chasing the big names knowing how you have to accept the risk of their older years.
Just found your videos man, you sound just like the narrator from the Sandlot, great vid, keep up good work
Thanks, will do!
Realizing who number 1 was before the reveal hurt me as a Phillies fan. I used to call him my favorite player and I still have his jersey. And now I’m sad about him again.
Pain.
I saw the video title as well and my mind jumped right to Howard instantly. It still hurts till this day because he helped us win the WS, but after that…… the horror.
He's still one of my favorites of all time, honestly. I'm glad he got paid.
I just wish that it hadn't come at the cost of our entire franchise ;-;
@@brandonkiehl269 how could he be a favorite of all time ? Watching him strikeout every at bat must be entertaining to you.
Your channel is actually fire, pls keep it up bro
Appreciate that
Great video. I had no idea how bad some of these contracts were! Barry Zito being on this list hurts me though. Mathematically I get why, but he exited the game as a hero.
It still shocks me how Zito could've fallen off that bad, especially with playing in a pitcher friendly park.
Great video. I'm curious if Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera will be included in a future edition.
You forgot to mention that after the angels traded Mo Vaughn, they won a World Series, and Percival got the save in game 7
Percival was one of the best closers of his era.
liked & subbed, great video man! The best contract video will be interesting as well.
Thanks for the sub!
Great, and really interesting vid. Can't wait for the best $100+ million contracts. Also, relieved to not see that Padres make the list.
You might see the Padres on that list with Hosmer and most likely Tatis.
@@Peter-ok9bj Of course. But since it was mentioned that the list is only for completed contracts, I'm talking about this specific vid. I fully expected to see a Padre or two. But then I remembered that before the current ownership the team was cheao AF so I don't there actually were any $100+m contracts. 🤣
Cost per war seems like a very good indicator of contract value since winning is why you play. Some other factors may add or subtract but on the field that is it, how much do wins cost a team?
For a minute I thought the Howard contract was gonna get spared from being discussed 😂
I had almost missed it because in my mind his initial 2 year extension, which included some arbitration years, was part of his massive extension. Once I realized they were separate, he was an easy #1.
@@BaseballsNotDead hard to top that, I lived through those years and it was so depressing. Thank goodness the Phils made the WS this year to put that time deep in the past
Great video! glad to see you back.
Hey, thanks!
as a giants fan I lost it during the Zito breakdown 🤣 Those numbers! Thanks for the ring Barry
Even though I despise them, it is impressive the Yankees aren't on this list at all considering how many huge contracts they have given out
I liked Mo Vaughn as an Angel. He struck out too much in 2000 (181 K's) and his OB% wasn't great (.365), but was still a dangerous hitter. Then sat out all of 2001 due to injury. Signed with the Mets in 2002. What about the Angels? Percival had a career year as a closer in 2002 (40 saves, 1.92 ERA). Troy Glaus and quiet-but-solid Garrett Anderson were the most feared hitters in the lineup that featured a buncha non-stars (sorry Salmon), but many had a career year or very good season (Spezio, Fullmer, Kennedy, Eckstein). So without a super star, the Angels won the World Series... and have quickly forgot the formula that made them winners in 2002!
I know this is old but a .365 OBP had to be like almost 50 points above league average I’m guessing. It was pretty good even if down for Mo lol
I know this is old but a .365 OBP had to be like almost 50 points above league average I’m guessing. It was pretty good even if down for Mo lol
Awesome video my man. Can’t wait till the other one
Coming soon!
You struck me deep with putting Barry Zito on here as a Cardinals fan. I remember that playoff series and we were convinced going into that game we were on our way to another world series appearance.
He was so great on the A's
WHOA I never realized that Albert Belle was on HOF trajectory. That's crazy
I really want to dig into why the White Sox opted out. He had an MVP caliber year with them right before they did that.
@@BaseballsNotDead Thats insane
Numbers wise sure though his relationship with the media and really his personality in general would've made it an uphill battle. When he was forced into retirement Bill Madden wrote an article with the general sentiment of couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Whether you think that would've been fair to him is another discussion.
@@bigbearkat2010 I always felt that if your numbers are there, you're in. The whole media relationship stuff is kinda bs to me. I realize that you want players who display excellence on and off the field to represent your game. BUT plenty of bad people are in the hall of fame. Every Era had differing values, so someone who was stand up then or now could be viewed as a bad person.
He had Ralph Kiner numbers.
Just when you thought baseball was dead. It’s not
Hey man awesome video! I for sure thought Jason Schmidt’s dodger contract would be on here. I think he only made a few starts for them. Where did he rank out of curiosity?
It was only a 3 year deal and came well below $100 million.
Great job, looking forward to the best contract vid!
Coming soon!
I really enjoy your channel. Very interesting stuff. I'm a baseball geek since I was 7, I'm 53. I always wanted to do this type of thing that you do. Great job and I'll continue to enjoy your channel.
Nice entertaining video, but I wish you had used bWAR per 100 Million as your measure instead of Millions per bWAR. That way your formula wouldn't have exploded when bWAR turned negative for the last three and would've looked more consistent :)
That is a very good point! Should've gone with that to be MUCH cleaner.
Could you explain that in English in 25 words or less ?
@@ccdogpark ?
I thought for sure Kevin brown would have made this list. Now I have to go look at his stats. As a giants fan I’m shocked Matt Cain wasn’t on here. It was literally like the SECOND he finally
Got paid, he COMPLETELY forgot how to pitch
EDIT: Brown came back from injury waaaay better than I remembered it being as a kid
It's funny that everyone thinks the brown contract was horrible. He was an Ace for 3 years, was injured and good 2 years, and injured and bad for 2 years. He was worth an average of 3 war per year for his contract.
Really explain a little more about Cain If you could? I remember he was so great for a 2-3 years at least
I have a truly spicy hot take: signing 30 year old Boegarts to an 11 YEAR DEAL is not going to work out....
In 2019 I applied for a baseball publication with an article I had written about this topic. The media promotes these contracts and the market drives bigger and bigger contracts but the chance of the contracts being bad for the team is way too high.
Love finding a small market channel early in its development. Great for baseball.
Welcome aboard!
As a orioles fan I can not believe what Chris Davis did
I can. He cheated to inflate his numbers, found some owner stupid enough to veto his own front office to sign him for crazy money, got married, became a dad, and then essentially retired a rich man. Chris played the Orioles like the two bit operation they became under Angelos.
Crazy you don’t have more subs, fantastic videos!
I appreciate that!
I’m so surprised Jacoby Ellsbury didn’t make this list
The worst one I've ever seen was the red Sox paying carl Crawford to basically do nothing. I was so angry at them for doing that
And that rookie Rusney Castillo! Grrr lol and right when they each signed I even bought an overpriced autograph card of each to add my "Redsox" collection lol
Carl Crawford was lucky that his free agent class was weak with him being the best position player available. Cano was one of the top 5-8 players in the MLB at the time he hit free agency but he also benefited from being a FA In a weak class because he would of never gotten 250 million if there was better players available.
@@joel8692 yeah I remember that time. There was a couple guys that got ridiculously overpaid, and none of them really did anything lol
The Chris Davis deal is why I fear the Yankees giving Judge a mega-contract of more than 6 years. He is the same age and hit a ton of homers in the last few years, but has been injury prone and strikes out a lot.
Judge is also a way better than Chris Davis
Did you just compare judge to Chris Davis? Lmao
Judges worst full season is better than Davis’ best. Not even worth comparing them
Judge is a hell of a player but I wouldn't give him more than a 6 year deal. But the Yankees are desperate because without Judge they are nothing even with Stanton on the team and look at how his contract has aged? If he wasn't playing he would be in the top 10 of those bad contracts.
@@jadprinz482 Do you see Davis' numbers before the albatross contract was given to him and he sucked? 100+ RBI's and 50+ homers before that contract. Judge hits for a better average but my point is that you don't pony up a huge contract for a guy in his 30's, because he could end up on this list in the future. I love Judge but he's not worth 8 years at 40 mil, and won't be putting up those numbers in 3-4 years.
Oh man, I remember that Red Sox controversy back in the day. That was crazy first knowing that.
Awesome content! Cant wait for the best version
Working on it. Maybe in a week. It's a lot easier to find clips of players doing good things than bad things, so this video should have a quicker turnaround.
You should do a video of each team's best Free Agent signing. Also Tigers kept paying Prince Fielder 6 million per year until 2020.
Well, he is a Prince...
That story about the Red Sox pitching staff sitting around the clubhouse slamming Miller Lites, playing Xbox, and eating Popeyes will forever be my favorite image in baseball lore
As an Orioles fan, Chris Davis' contract was easily one of the worst I've ever seen. That money could have definitely been used to develop more prospects, considering most of our guys (JJ Hardy, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado) were either heading to other teams or retiring.
This contract also taught me that Scott Boras could sell water to a fish. I mean, it was a really clueless fish, but a fish nonetheless.
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Baseball isn’t dead and neither are you
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Prince Fielder is the Popeye's worker who eats everyones order right before they get to the window.
12:25 I've been going to Rays games for 15 years and I don't ever recall seeing the stands that full!
Corbin... ooof.
At the time I was desperate for the Yankees to start spending more money... I would have taken anyone...
I'm glad they didn't get Corbin
Aaron Judges’ contract will be worth it
Albert Belle was the meanest most frightening humans to ever play baseball. That 95 Indians lineup was so good Manny Ramirez batted 8th or 9th. I remember when he chased a group of kids in his car for egging his house. I can't believe there was a kid dumb enough to do that shit. But if he was on your team and you weren't a member of the local media, you loved the guy. I got to see him live for my Indians, the white Sox, and Baltimore at Camden Yards.
Bro went from the Moneyball guy to the contract guy, love to see it
Can probably figure out why Moneyball appealed to me in the first place. Baseball finances and contracts versus results on the field are like kitty litter to me.
@@BaseballsNotDead I see why Billy Bean never liked signing a huge FA or risk it.
Revisit this when Yelich retires
Not even an honorable mention of Jacoby Ellsbury.Shout out Carl Pavano, too.
This makes me wonder if something in his method of calculation is fundamentally wrong.
Joey Albert Belle and his twin brother are from my hometown. Their dad was a baseball coach at one of the high schools here wayyyyy back when they were young. He was a great coach, from what I hear around from people around here who played for him in high school.
Prince Fielder isn't an icon. CECIL FIELDER is a friggin ICON. His son is just extremely popular compared to his dad.
Good stuff man. Awesome baseball channel. 👍
Thanks!
Rumor has it, the city of Baltimore put Chirs Davis's photo on the city busses so they wouldn't hit other cars.
Now you can add Jacob deGrom. He has won 37 games over the last five years. So he will get 40 million a year for that.
Those uniforms with their last name on the sides are absolutely horrendous
Commenting for the algorithm. Hope you keep going viral!! Awesome stuff!
Much appreciated!
I can't wait for the degrom contract to make this list in the future
Well done. That’s a lot of work. Nicely presented.
Thanks!
I always thought it was wild that baseball contracts are guaranteed. Like dishing out millions not knowing if that dude will actually play is insane. Do they just have good agents? Like other sports only guarantee so much while the rest is play dependent, why not baseball?
The MLB is unique in that they've never managed to get their player union under control. That's why; the player union has dominated the terms and has negotiated by far the best deals for their guys. It's why the modern MLB is so utterly broken with constant roster churn in search for young cheap players and disproportionately high contracts for productive veterans with very little in between. The NHL used to be the worst-managed 'Big 4' (for facing the same issues the current MLB is facing now) but MLB has taken over the #1 spot in the past decade or so with and a grim financial outlook.
I think the worst contract I’ve seen could be the Angels signing Anthony Rendon (7yr/$245mil), or, or maybe the Angels signing CJ Wilson (5 yr/$77.5mil), or maybe when the Angels signed Josh Hamilton (5yr/$125mil), or when the Angels traded for Vernon Wells (4yr/$86mil), possibly when the Angels traded for Justin Upton (5yr/$106mil), and screw it I’ll throw in when the Angels signed Zack Cozart (3yr/$38mil)
In total, The Angels & Bad contracts Are joined at the hip
Great video. Very entertaining and informative
Glad you enjoyed it!
I remember seeing Fielder at bat. My gosh when that man swung you could hear and feel it.
Except in the postseason where he had a paltry .587 ops
Aside from the issues with negative WAR, I feel like dividing by WAR has major flaws when you have very small numbers. I think anyone would agree that spending $150m for 0.2 WAR would be a far worse contract than spending $100m for 0.1 WAR, but it would be ranked as a "better" contract. Not sure what would be a good fix, but this current approach can definitely be improved.
I have an idea. Since the lowest WAR in any given year seems to be about -2 and we are measuring worst contracts, how about adding 2*(length of contract) to the denominator? For my above example of $150m for 0.2 WAR vs $100m for 0.1 WAR, lets assume both are 5 year contracts. The metric for the first contract would be $150m/10.2 = $14.7m. The second contract would be $100m/10.1 = $9.9m. The first contract would be clearly worse using this new metric as it should be.
This metric is measuring against the very worst player in any given year rather than just a replacement level player, so it seems to be more fitting for a "worst of" list.
Trouble with long-term contracts is the player is not the same player he was at the beginning. Most of the time, the teams can't wait to get rid of them.
I was aware of most of this awful contracts but the most interesting thing is how the signing teams were able to trade some of those players
He didn't mention it for every player but I know when Hamilton was traded back to the Rangers from the Angels, the Angels were paying 24 of the 25 million annually whereas the Rangers were only paying nearly league minimum for his services.
@@smitty2260 Like the Red Sox and Hosmer. Is the only way
Interesting thing about Hampton's 2001 season, he was actually good in the first half which hence his All Star selection as the guy kept his ERA below 4. But then after the AS break...
Would be interesting to see his stats break down for home and away. Due to the altitude. Did his hitting only increase at home and his pitching get worse at home or was it even from home and away
@@kaleaf101 From what I got according to the game logs, it was June where you can see signs in which things begins to go wrong. He was actually fine in both home and road until that point.
@@iamhungey12345 So it was just a down trend over all. It would still be interesting to look at all the data and see how much the altitude effects all pitchers and batters
@@kaleaf101 Yeah the first half was basically a dream for pitchers, the second half is where reality hits.
I would like to read more about the 2011 Red Sox what are best articles or books on that team?
Funny thing about Jordan Zimmermann is that the Tigers let Max Scherzer go that offseason, where he eventually signed with Jordan’s Nationals. From that exchange the tigers saved $8mil per year and Scherzer finished top 5 in CY Young voting each of the next 5 years.
Scherzer told them he wanted out. Not much the Tiger's could do.
Scherzer’s contract was $100 million more than Zimmermans. Tigers offered max $150 million nats signed him for $210 million. Zimmerman got $110 million.
Carl Crawford may have appeared to be a prototypical leadoff hitter, but in his time in Tampa he made it known he hated batting leadoff and wanted to be left out of that spot in the lineup. He was analytically supported though, because before the end of Longoria's rookie year he was their best hitter and thus he batted second more than he ever led off.
Upton/Bartlett, Crawford, Longoria, Pena made a terrifying 1-4 to pitch against when the gears were turning.
Crawford was great in Tampa and I've always like E.Long
Thanks Artie, there are 5 of 10 bad contracts because Albert was left off. The good news is you are selling and NOBODY can mess the Angels up more than you. Mike Trout will probably where his high school jersey into the HOF.
Artie didn’t sign Vaughn. Besides the increased use of the shift vs left handed hitters is what killed Hamilton along with the swing and miss issues but if they banned the shift most of these players wouldn’t be on this list.