The OVERBET BLUFF - Old School VS New School Poker Analysis Episode 4
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- čas přidán 18. 05. 2021
- Welcome back to Episode 4 of the Old School VS New School Analysis series. This week we're looking at a big Overbet Bluff from a $100,000 Buy in PCA High Roller against Ivan Luca. Do you agree with the Old School take that this was a bad play or was it a High level New School play?
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Old school Daniel: I beat nothing
New School Daniel: He beats nothing
Love hearing these contrasting thought processes. Reminder to those out their applying this stuff - always be aware of how much of a thinking player your opponent is. Changes everything.
New school guy here - I'm enjoying your old vs new series. Seeing your growth during and after the heads-up match has been impressive. Not many people are willing to take such drastic changes as you have. Good job :)
Which heads up match are you referring to? Would love to see what happened to convince Daniel to pivot.
@@ZeroFate643 Doug Polk vs Daniel.
@@TheAaronpope007 awesome, thx!
I'm still "Old school " and learn something every hand
Glad to hear it!
This video demonstrates just how difficult poker is at the highest levels. Daniel spent over 15 mins explaining the possibilities of this hand. These pros go through this almost every hand, and they do it in a few seconds. Remarkable.
This analysis series Old School vs New has been especially helpful for me as someone who has not focused on the game for some time and now getting back into it. I have always played an exploitatively and feel adding these new tools to my box will only strengthen my exploits.
Keep them coming, I Love the way you explain the thought process
As a teacher and someone who used to be a tournament dealer at the bike, I thought you did a really good job of explaining the content. Thanks so much for providing it:) your master class sessions are fantastic too!
PS; I’m with the new school these days. Now can you go ahead and take down Hellmuth in the 3rd match??
He didn’t
Who gave grandpa the solver? He's gonna kill us now.
😂😂😂👍
New nickname: Grandpa Poker
It kind of sounds like a high school physics teacher trying to explain quantum mechanics. It all sounds kinda right, yet all somehow wrong.
Thank you so much for these videos Daniel they are very useful, been watching you forever you are a true legend, keep up all the good work 💯
Loved this, well done sir, super engaging, voice pitch dramatics and quality analysis for the common man to absorb.kudos
I’m glad you have this channel. I’ve been admiring your poker knowledge for years. Def has helped me make better decisions on the table. Thank you good sir
This is helpful. Great teaching points explained very well. Thanks Daniel!
Thanks for posting this stuff, Daniel. Like most people, I played a lot in the early 2000s when Harrington and Greenstein's books were my bibles. So it's really awesome that you're breaking stuff down, by comparison, to see how past observations compare against the modern game theory.
Love the analysis Daniel and I would love to see more like this. Thank you!
Love watching these videos, really insightful. Keep em coming DNegs
D-Negz, loved both breakdowns of the hand. It's great to see how much poker analysis has evolved over the last 5-10 years. Also great to see how you've changed your game with it. Keep making the superb videos, Daniel. Thank you!
Great video! Absolutely love the contrast between old school (which I’m sure a lot of your viewers still identify with) and new school.
Love this series! Thanks for the great video.
Keep up the good stuff! I'm really enjoying these hand analysis videos
Great job!! Can you do an episode where you go over the time where you first came to Vegas and had to go back home to recover your bankroll and then came back to Vegas and conquered the world? What worked, what was different, how did you cope? That's the mark of a true champion, to get back up when down!! Would love to hear more about that time!
Daniel touches on this anecdote briefly in his Masterclass series, but you're probably looking for more :)
This is an awesome concept Daniel! We want more💯
This analysis is so good. Great format. Notifications turned on sir 👍
This old/new breakdown is very helpful analysis for understanding actions. Thanks D!
This is a great concept bro. There's something to be said for getting to the same conclusion using both approaches.
love it.
Daniel this is one of the best I heard, you explain everything in a great way, thank you
Yossi from israel
Very helpful series I think about some of these hand reviews in the middle of hands
Love this series you are doing. Not only am is it helpful to analyzing my play but it's really gotten me considering other's play based on their game theory old vs nee school
Yooo awesome videos love watching you play and explain your thinking
Dnegs these video's are sweet! It's just great to see content from you! Can you share a hand where you lost the pot and the new school method would have changed that possibility?
I'll look and see if we can find some
love these analysis vids dnegs, keep em coming
Very insightful. Wise to implement both old and new school approaches
Nice hand Dnegs and even better video that taught me a lot
Hell yeah! so glad you got a better mic. Thanks for the vid
I think you said you were in a unique position to do the "old school / new school" comparison.
I remember watching you many times back in the day and you were better than almost anyone at guessing your oponent's hand. You seemed to look at it in terms of "what story is my oponent telling me? what hand can they have that makes sense based on their bets?" That seems like the starting place for the newer school thinking of ranges vs hands. I was a little confused when I started watching poker vids recently (Brad Ownen) and a little shocked by how much the game theory had advanced.
So thanks for such a successful man spending time doing such thorough analyst , not many people have ability to do this , let alone willing to do this, really respect about this , and really appreciate.
Love the analysis . Keep it coming
This is a really good video concept!
I've always wanted to see this exact sort of analysis series, Daniel. I always imagined a long form discussion discussing all the great poker theory through the years and what parts they got right or wrong in modern theory and range construction.
Of course it would be fun just trying to pick the best book from any decade.
70's: Super System (and arguably remained the best book into the 90's)
80's: Hold'em for Advanced Players?
90's: Pick the best poker book (Sklansky has many! Theory of Poker?)
2000's: Harrington on Hold'em was way ahead of its time in promoting mixed strategies (in 2004!), and holds up very well for deep stack play. But nothing changed my game like Professional No Limit Hold'em Vol 1.
2010's: So many GTO books started to get written in this timeframe it's hard to pick the best one. I'm quite partial to Jonathan Little's books, but curious if there are better ones?
love you videos!!! keep up the good work!!
Daniel, I'm your huge fan from Russia. Your videos are wonderful, informative and useful for both beginners and those who have been playing for a long time. I learn from your videos and dream of mastering at least 10-20% of the skills you know. Thank you!
I was in high school during the wsop when C Moneymaker won, and poker has changed so much. I watched poker on ESPN all the time. Its great to see you all thriving.
Great video Dnegs, you have a knack for explaining these concepts in a more understandable way.
honestly these videos are comedy keep pumping them out man
New school analysis was very well delivered their Daniel Son!
Amazing as always!!!
Thank you Daniel I am really beginning to get this
Great content, Daniel.
Like the thought process and the bluff.
Fantastic video! I've become a fan Daniel.
Like this series. Keep it up
Thank you, great video 😎
Yeah also bet/check/bet looks a lot like value. I think it's the 8 on the river that opens up for that play. What if a king or ace came up? Would you still take the spot and maybe size even bigger?
Love it. Would really like to know where to get charts to study, as well as, how to learn the new school exploitative way to play
You can Google 6 max or full ring charts and get answers. However you would need to do you own solver study as well
Hello, thank you very much for your content. I apreciate it a lot. Would you please elaborate this spot from the view of Luca? Should he call the river more often with 99 because of the blockers to 97s as your value and without blocking Kq as your bluff or should he call with FH and straigts only? Thanks again and wish you good luck at the tables.
I like the raise on the flop. Strong hand and alot of equity going to the turn vs a standard C bet
i think you should also add the combinations of 5 6 that got a bit counterfitted on the turn with overpairs now beating them but overall very good vid
Poker was on late at night in the UK at the weekend when i was a kid, used to watch it with my dad but never had any idea what was happening lol. Awesome to see the career you have had Dnegs 👍
Really like the old vs new videos
Awesome analysis
Poker kid vs d negs, love the 2 different lines of thought for the same hand! Can see just how much more complicated a poker mind has to be now
Really good video. The only thing is that for that bet size, the theory advocates 60% of bluff combos--8 of them.
Like this alot,,,Keep them comming
Good stuff. Ty DNEGS
Loving these videos. Replaced the polker hands content very well. 😬. Just do us a favour and beat up hellmuth one time please. Backing you till the end.
I love these videos
haha love the shirt! Greetings from BC!
Daniel,
Thank you for your humility. The fact that you're casually talking about a $100,000 buy in surprised me.
You're so normal I forget you're one of the most successful and powerful poker players on earth.
love the glasses DNegs... nice colour
Do you think you have bluffs on the river with Axs with a straight draw and backdoor flush or pair plus backdoor flush ever?
love the analysis. I dont agree thinking you have the combos of 79 suited due to position but agree all 33,55,66,88 combos.
Well he was the one playing so if he says he'd have it he prolly would.
@@fabianroberntz3545 I’d be surprised if DNegs flatted 79 suited from +2 after a +1 open.
@@VodinhVlogs not sayimg its good but he probably knows his then range then you
@@fabianroberntz3545 Let’s dumb it down for you. If DNegs is a winning tourney player in the long run, a flat from an UTG/+1 open in +2 with 6 players left to act with a suited one gapper is a HUGE losing play in the long run. And DNegs is not a long term losing player. Therefore, he should rarely have 79 suited in his +2 flatting range.
liking the calm and controlled dnegs lately keep it up man
Thank you Daniel
Do you think that there is a difference if you are short and go all in on the river? Or if he is short and you go all in. Is this move specific for the amount of chips you both have?
great videos
Love the shirt!!
Great evaluation and break down of a new and old school hand analysis took a few year of me comming back to poker to get with these adjustments poker really has changed with charts excetra
I came back playing to low - from high before and got dominated ,untill i adjusted so this new school playing style.
It is not just at the higher bb's 2-4 5-10 or 10-20 like i used to play
there all playing this way , because even 50c/$1 online plays have all these tools these day ,back in the day that was a level where no one had any idea of anything and was easily beatable if you could be bothered grinding it
Now that level is 20c-40c 😂😂👍 and even there has a few with advanced thinking
You are the best!
Thanks daniel, a real genious, saludos desde chile sorry formy eanglish
@DNegs what programs do professionals use nowadays to analyse? Do you have access to poker AIs like Libratus or Pluribus?
Anyway, cool vid.
There is most likely a fair few websites that cover study strats for advanced play. Most will use piosolver to crunch the numbers as far as I know
Piosolver
Is there a video that really explains new school theory and why "seeing where you are" is no longer en vouge?
Try the video I did on "Ranges Explained"
Look at Jonathan Little's poker coaching videos, they are excellent!
@@dnegspoker will do! Grumpy to think I will need to relearn poker to be competitive.
Mr. Smith, how are you? Are you still living in Newcastle?
I rewatched that video and couldn't really find anything explicit about this, but this is my interpretation:
Luca opening +1 in this scenario is quite strong, his range is uncapped (can have the best hands AK+) after Daniel just calls. For this specific flop which is 536 rainbow, the majority of hands that are opening +1 in this position are still beating Daniel. When Daniel 'raises for information' and receives a call, he really doesn't gain that much information as most of Luca's range preflop that bet the board would have made the call facing a raise. So 'seeing where you are' didn't provide any new information and it's likely that you are beat by your opponent.
I think the main idea is that you can gain knowledge based on all of your opponent's actions and 'raising to see where you are' is a very expensive way of gaining little new knowledge.
Amazingly explained! #Dneg WP✌🏻
Any suggestions for a good book on modern poker theory?
Well anything that works...but your analysis being good points out the best scenario for an opponent fold relies on you making this play often enough to be called with the goods and win there also. I am wondering what you think that % of bluff for this scenario should be to get more folds. I am also a fan of Mike Caro working hard to elicit the response you happen to want from the opponent also. Thanks if you can respond. I am 60 and learned playing no limit loball in CA near the early 80's.
Wow! Poker truly became a deep thinking game these years. Looks like a chess game's analysis. I'm so ignorant about poker, I could never talk about a poker hand for 18 minutes . 'Two 9s and two 2s go into a bar....' that's my analysis
Love the shirt!
Bonamo sitting there already in a 2021 skill level. XD Probably on a 2030 skill level now.
I think if he thought you were playing a GTO strategy, he'd have called with 99, because he doubles blocks 97 and only blocks one of the 97 backdoor flush draws.
Great analysis although i'd speculate that you'd always be raising TT here? And 99 a decent amount of the time which would increase his range adv on flop quite a bit.
Both styles have merit, if you have a great feel for the game and experience old school is very effective, especially in person when you can read your opponent
I enjoyed this Daniel.👍 You can also add the 6 combo's of 7's to your bluffing range. So, 14 combo's of value and 18 + of bluffs.
Are 77 really a bluff though? 77 beat a lot more hands he could open with and flop a pair
@@dnegspoker👍🏼 that's a fair question, but once you bet 1.4x on the river, you're turning 77 into a bluff because as you say with that sizing, you're polarized and not merging.
If we are tuning 22,44,77 into bluffs then we are bluffing with all non value hands, so that can't be right. What are you checking that loses sometimes?
This is how I have been thinking before solvers. I'd look at combinatorics. Before solvers I'd use Flopzilla and Pokerstove to figure this out. Now it is natural in my head. I still do the work though. I don't have a solver because I don't have time to do it as poker is now recreational. So I watch other people do it for me.
Most players I meet don't even think on this level, even pros. But I play 2/5 or 1/2. I could play 5/10 but then I'd be playing uncomfortably as I am pretty frugal with money. Also why play tougher opposition when I am perfectly happy making a ton of money per hour at lower stakes.
I have made over 6 figures playing poker, all reported to the IRS, the last 15 years part time. I went pro for a while but it was too much stress. So I opened my own company and now work for myself enjoying poker for fun. Sadly I haven't been at the tables since COVID.
Once my entire family is vaccinated I'm back.
BTW DN, I am older than you are... but in my head I am younger. Good job on moving up to new school.
In the end it all boils down to knowledge. Even if you prefer old school over new school it’s better to understand it and know which of your opponents play each style.
I play a bit more conservative so I likely would have went with the old school approach with this hand as it’s lower risk but I appreciate the mindset behind playing it new school.
Either way, thanks for sharing. These videos can be (and have been) extremely educational.
Great stuff! Wish I could find a video on what the new school theory actually is. I am piecing it together with these vids but I have issues determining how you figure out what a persons range would be and stuff like that. Im going to guess that its based on prior experiences playing against these guys.
There are some range tables developed for pre-flop play that take into account a lot of things like when you call or raise against player at X spot, that hopefully your range will be close to 50/50 equity on a broad range of flop textures.
This is why Daniel said that his range did not really support aces, kings, AK, pocket jacks etc because those oftentimes would have 3-bet pre-flop rather than call the opening bet.
Post-flop play gets a bit more complicated (at least to me) and I'm still learning :)
Daniel, do you think new school strategies can be applied against novice players? Our assumption on ranges may be off as they play different from what we expect.
And also your videos are great!
I think this is a great explanation for this type of game of high stakes pros. However, in most cash games that are under $5,000 buy in, the dynamic changes and bluffs are much harder to get through. Even someone who understands GTO calls the raise with the pocket nines every time there. Why? They get paid more often than not and they are curious and it isn’t enough money to get them to worry about being wrong when they are wrong.
I have come to the conclusion, but perhaps I’m wrong, that it is better to be predictable insofar as being modeled by other players without being beholden to, said, model. In other words, deliberate incorporation of outlier hands and bets consistent with normal betting and time patterns to bluff spontaneously and betting and time deviation from normal hands occasionally to throw up red flags with other players. What do you think?
You may not be familiar with optimal GTO models, but they do things that may look like this already to the untrained eye (you call A9s but 3 bet A5s in spots pre for example) GTO is NOT a strategy that makes you the most money, it's just an unexploitable strategy. Your strategy (or any) can make more money against different player types. BUT, if your opponent is playing well (close to GTO) then you'll lose money by deviating, this part is guaranteed
Would you still make the same overbet on river if you did have a full house?
22 is a fold preflop gto wise vs open right?