America predicts war with China in 2025
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- čas přidán 27. 02. 2023
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US General Michael Minihan says that open conflict between #America and #China could happen as early as #2025.
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China is not gonna invade Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan all at once. That's an absolutely moronic prediction.
While i agree, that may not matter to those at the top.
Ukraine is a prime example of those believing their own propaganda and moronic military decisions.
Exactly. Feels like a big headline a run-of-the-mill news channel would use to get views, even though it's just based on what one guy said.
What the F is USA doing in this region anyway?? Go back to your own country and fix your healthcare!!
Aren't they reliant on them with trade too?
Lol yeah
I don't know how you guys feel about world events lately, but I think we better not let an Archduke take a trip to the Balkans any time soon.
and better tell the austrians to let them loosen the admission criteria for art colleges😂
@@user-kl4iz8ut1w😂😂😂
This comment is very underrated lol.
The only one who can save us is a British aristocrat who doesn't like appeasement but likes to have a drink and do hand gestures (Churchill).
A former Italian socialist might join in on the fun, but don't worry, they'll switch sides as soon as things start to turn against them.
Your pronounciation of the Philippine islands like Mindoro and Loboc is really good. Thank you for taking the time to learn them.
Right? I always wonder where he is from. His accent sounds good.
he's from surigao del sur @@Justin1an
This video has received a lot of criticism and a lot of it is justified. In hindsight, I think they should have done a better job of explaining that this is a very hypothetical scenario and more of a “food for thought” discussion. But the fact that a US general made this claim at least warrants a legitimate conversation to be had. You have to remember, they need topics for videos.
Wait the strategy at 9:11 is to invade most of South East Asia? Like how's that a doable strategy? That's world war 3 right there.
I mean let's be real here, they'd need to invade, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodja, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Fillipines and Indonesia.
How is such a scenario even remotely doable? Why is it not mentioned that this is a huge undertaking?
Not to mention even if that works and China hold Sumatra and safeguards the Mallaca strait, the US could just choke right below India and Sri Lanka.
Why is it not mentioned that this scenario is batshit crazy and simply undoable?
This isn't the Germans through the Ardennes this is expecting the Germans to take Moscow in 2 months...
Vietnam is a Fortress The USA and China both lost to them so this strategy is flawed
China doesn't want war with anybody in East Asia. They want to do business not war. The one who hopes a war to break out in this region is the US. And the interests of East Asian states with regard to the western part of the Pacific is almost identical, namely secure and lasting trade routes and partners.
@@paranoid1377 The US also doesn't want war. But China, while not wanting war, still try to push as close as possible and still not cross the line. China believes that if they keeps on pushing in the East China Sea, the US would eventually give in and they can claim the whole area. It has worked so far, and they will continue to do it.
nice timestamp
@@paranoid1377 "China doesn't war with anybody", Also, China militarizing as fast as they can and provoking all its neighbors. Ok Whinnie
I normally love Caspian Report's vids but this one is truly insane. Everything from India's $276B budget being a smaller slice of the pie than China's $230B budget at 3:32, to the idea of China invading half a dozen countries at once, and even how this whole video is based off a memo from a single dude.
There are valid reasons to fear potential future conflicts with China, but this analysis covered none of them. Glad the other comments here have also noticed how out of character this video is.
Out of character.... exactly
dude got lazy
Germany did it and so as Japan during ww2. PLA red army was in the Korean Peninsula War together with the Russians flying MIGs.
@@badofiagree with you. His analysis lacks facts when it comes to China, India or Asia
Im sorry but did any of you pay attention? The CCP’s net budget is not publicly reported. Taking into account other activities, it puts them somewhere into range of the US, vastly outstripping the Indians (who also prob dont report their net budget)
Either these comments are lazy themselves, or disingenuous
What they didn't expect is that it going to happen sooner than 2025.
The Japanese Military was able to control vast swaths of territories in a relatively short amount of time in the 1930s/1940s, but the U.S. had a small navy and tiny army back then until it mobilized its industrial might. Vietnam had no viable military, nor did the Philippines, Korea, or Australia. The situation is drastically different now in the 2020s. China would need to fight Japan which has a powerful high-tech navy, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, India and NATO (UK, France). That doesn't even include the US military powerhouse. China would be quickly cut-off and starved ... a war of attrition and/or siege it could not win. China is pinned in a corner geographically and otherwise.
No. Japan after WWII depende on U.S army, but agreement can not have more than × number of soldiers and equipment.
But think read a year ago they were reconsiderar that
I love how people automatically assume Vietnam is an American ally despite the officials repeatedly rejecting their bases in their country and keep saying they’ll not ally with ANYBODY.
Also, why would Thailand go to war? Having a few bases is one thing and having the entire population fight is another. Did any Thai ever even remotely say they’ll fight on the behalf of Americans that treat their nation like an open-air brothel?
South Korea do something funny and they’ll be fighting their own nuclear-armed brothers in the north.
Why would Indonesians fight? What beef do they have against China besides the SCS claims which they both can and have easily ignored for the past decade.
Even ignoring whatever other disincentives that people may have to go to war, only accounting the nationalist sentiment people have toward each other and not thinking anything about the economy which will be the quickest way to a revolution in their own respective country is the stupidest take armchair generals can have.
typical poor american thinking
you americunts only can think about war and destruction of other people aren't you?
只需要一个氢弹就可以消灭整个东京。你们需要尝试一下吗？？？？
You just described China declaring war on many countries around the South China Sea. Those goals are not feasible for China, not in ten years, let alone in two.
Let alone the us too
I seriously doubt China even consider doing that 🤔 But of course this kind of narrative makes China look more threatening..and that again helps the USA & others to sell weapons to the countries in the region.
China already had defacto control of SCS with 24/7 patrol and control ....
Absolutely. Fortunately/Unfortunately, for those who are familiar with Warfare 101, the ultimate excellence doesn't lie in winning every battle but in defeating the enemy without ever fighting.
Neither was russia, yet here we are.
This video felt more like an infographics video than a caspian report
LMFAO That is exactly it. It felt like Shivran was just reading one of their scripts.
Agreed.
Ok so I'm not the only one who noticed Infographics crew have lost their minds?
Anti-Separation Law of People's Republic of China
(Enforced on March 14, 2015)
Article 8
"If the 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces act under any pretext or means to cause the separation of Taiwan from China, or if a serious incident occurs in connection with the separation of Taiwan from China, or if the possibility of peaceful reunification is completely lost, the state shall take non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Azerbaijan supports Anti-Separation Law.
Also Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Cuba, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Indonesia, Cambodia, Nepal, Syria, Pakistan and Ethiopia support Anti-Separation Law.
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Calling Okinawa "Ryukyu" in this context is one of signs that this Channel may be a Chinese propaganda tool.
interesting, thanks for the video and great analysis, cheers
What map program do you use? Great doc!
Lets not forget that MOST Chinese generals if ww3 happens would be their 1st experience in commanding en masse all out war, not just very secretive operations.
the only thing they would do is press a button and we’d be in the fallout universe
@@bennelong8451 it goes both ways, no one is gona do that
most american general have not commanded in conventional warfare with someone stringer as them
@@sksksks5072 The US has constantly been at war. We have more experience.
And the Chinese military isn't comparable, or stronger. Lol
@@ConspiracytardHunter420 you underestimate how evil people are. especially those who hold a lot of power.
This 2050 prediction is so ridiculous. It’s impossible to even predict how events will turn out even 5 years from now let alone 27 years from now. I find it hard to believe that the US gross tonnage will remain more or less the same considering the US navy is currently working on a battle force 2045 plan to field a navy of 500 ships up from under 300 right now. The US is not staying idle while China rises. It will likewise respond in kind and we haven’t even mentioned regional Allie’s like Japan and Australia.
Totally. Fortunately/Unfortunately, for those who are familiar with Warfare 101, the ultimate excellence doesn't lie in winning every battle but in defeating the enemy without ever fighting
We need to peel India away from Russia/China. We could contain China then easily.
The USSR had a formidable army, ships and weapons, yet collapsed suddenly. This is the US Empire's fate. The failure that heralded their demise was allowing themselves to get dragged into the Afghan conflict to protect their ally and puppet from muhadeen rebels. It became a money pit.
The US made the same mistake with getting involved with Ukråine.
2025 NOT 2050.
Considering the average prediction of AI experts of reaching human level intelligence is around 2040, and human level intelligence will basically change everything... Anyone who makes predictions beyond say 10 years is probably not making enough assumptions.
Great reporting. please continue your great projects.
Looking forward to it. Should be very interesting.
One issue I have is while nationalism, jingoism and hate for Americans is high in China, I don't know how willing parents are to send their only male sons into battle. Especially when the demographic pyramid says children are more and more burdened with supporting retirees. Losing more youth, while trying to support your retirees and trying everything to stimulate birth rate, doesn't sound good in the long run. Even if China wins the war, they may collapse internally because of the demographics becoming even more lopsided than they already are.
Basically what’s happening to Russia right now
Exactly. It is happening to Americans as well. Their is a 30% drop in population from milleniels to Gen z.
Hamlet: You think the party really cares?
@@chilipepper9938 USA easily takes immigrants, China being mostly han refuses anything.
That's a very good point.
The “2025” memo you cited has been pretty widely mocked in the military community and was made by the guy in charge of transport planes, not some high-level military strategist.
Just the guy in charge of transport planes! Lool. I’d argue the guy in charge of transportation had a bigger picture than the guy in charge of a division.
@@colinjohnston5734I suppose he would know where most the supplies are going.
Yeah that's why China has been stockpiling steel the last decade and massively increasing their Navy, all that steel must've been used for fishing boats it must be for all the fish they wanna gather right?
China told it's generals he wants his military strong enough to decisively take out China by 2027. Japan, America and Australia all boosted their military spending aiming for a potential conflict in 2027. Months later China announced that it must be prepared to take over Taiwan by 2025.
You should read the biography of that "guy in charge of transport planes". He spent the better part of a decade in senior positions here in the Indo-Pacific Command, including Deputy Director of Operations, Chief of Staff, and Deputy Commander. And a bunch of billets with US Forces Korea as well. He knows this AO, he knows our adversaries.
Great video, much appreciated.
Nice vide and analysis. Thank you
Normally CaspianReport hits it out of the ballpark but this is just ridiculous. The possibilities laid out here are closer to something out of a Paradox game than an actual war.
lol was thinking the same.
I think some people want this as head cannon or just to calm their anxiety of an uncertain future. As it feels morally good if China attacks first as the aggressor and we know US will win in direct war.
Like why would China even do this if they know it would fail, but people keep bringing this up, thus why I believe mostly to calm their own anxiety.
The only aggressor here is the US lol, my guy listed only Chinese security concerns and think it's reasonable that they just let the US military be in charge
He's actually being a lot more brazen lately. His last video on the African currency union was a prime example of a straw man argument. He cherry picked his data points. The most egregious example was comparing the economies of war torn Ivory Coast and peaceful Ghana and then saying that the differences were down to the currency.
He also very intentionally downplayed the benefits of the union. Clearly there are some if former Portuguese and Spanish colonies joined it.
Come on man believe the propaganda, they pay him very well for you to make fun of him 😂
His "France still has colonies in Africa" was just as bad. Some of his recent videos are too alarmist or exaggerated. I've noticed the same with RealLifeLore going more alarmist and exaggerating events or possible events.
In any war, the first casualty is trade .. and China is very heavily
dependent on trade. China is heavily dependent on gas and food
imports, and on exports to finance it. You also underestimate the
Japanese and Korean navies.. they're actually really good.
Because the US is not dependent on trade? Russia has all the gaz and oil China need. plus China will be carbon free by 2050.
If the US is a naval power with long reach. Russia and China are continental power with great depth with all the necessary natural ressources to be self sufficient unlike Japan and south korea.
Indeed, from what I've read recently, it sounds like Japan is aggressively expanding their military expenditure with the clear intent of deterrence. I have not learned where Korea stands lately, but I usually got the impression that military readiness has been a high priority for Korea.
South Korea, Japan and China have not been in modern warfare. Results might actually shock you
Of course without the US market China will grow slower but China does not need the US to grow anymore. While US can't produce with same competivitity as China, so the West is losing global market.
Actually, TRUTH has always been the first casualty of war.
This is the reason why its impossible to contain this war in Taiwan. For Example, even if the US has no bases in the Philippines, 99% china will occupy island belonging to the Philippines near Taiwan to secure the area around it, same goes for Japan. Both countries will definitely be dragged in the war, thats why Ph and Japan is now working on a possible defense treaty. They well know that time is running out and that they both need to learn how to interoperate once war breaks out to protect their territories.
This reporting puts way too much stock in internal theorizing by one U.S general, and the fantastical idea of China launching land occupations of basically every ASEAN member state does little to ground Minihan's flight of fancy. The topic is understandably an interesting one to examine and wargame-out, and obviously there are incentives here to maximize claims in pursuit of an audience, but I feel we have fallen afoul of a brand of sensationalism here that ultimately hurts the credibility of the channel. I look forward to more CR content, but am disappointed in this video's release
And there is also the possibility that the general intends to spread fear and sense of urgency in order to command over yet another huge mountain of cash from the federal budget.
Agreed, this is a very unusually low quality video from an otherwise pretty decent creator. Guess we all fall into the “government official” trap sometimes.
Calling Okinawa “Ryukyu” in this context is one of signs that this Channel may be a Chinese propaganda tool.
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The scenario at 8:56 suggests that China declearing war on just about everyone in the south east asia, which is literally impossible.
Caspian is either an idoit or hes toying with westerners in their war fantasy....
The Japanese did it…It would be foolhardy to assume an authoritarian regime fighting for its political existence wouldn’t go all in just because, reasons, only Vietnam could put up a real fight without American support, the rest are likely to bend the knee even to China
they already have border conflicts, with almost every neighbour, not to mention claiming almost the whole south china sea. This is quite an aggressive move
After living in SEA, all that matters to these countries is Chinese money!
I dont see that in the moment either, because the terrain is stopping them. There are deserts and mountains in the west. And in the south they have jungles and mountains. And to the east and south there is an ocean.
But lets not forget that the Chinese have a very large population. They will not have the same problems as the Russians right now. They will have the man power, but will struggle to get heavy equipment into those regions...
Thaaank youuuu❤️
THANKS FOR THIS NICE EXPLANATION
9:06 As someone living in Luzon. The terrain would be a nice welcome to the PLAN, beaches overlooked on by mountains with fortifications would be China's Normandy. Sure China may take small islands in the Archipelago but Chinese soldiers will face a meat grinder against a force that is so battle hardened in infantry warfare despite being underdeveloped.
Filipinos have a long history of guerrilla warfare.
I wouldn't want to be a Chinese city kid conscripted into the Red army trying to patrol the Philippine jungles.
It would be a mess. And with those new Brahmos missiles, I wonder what targets they might find.
it will be vietnam 2.0, but this time, the trees speak filipino.
npa, abu sayaf and milf will join forces 😆
Hello!!! We beat the Germans in Normandy!!!
I generally love CaspianReport videos, but let's be real. China cannot eat up its neighbors like cake. If Japan, S.Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Vietnam banded together, America wouldn't even have to lift a finger. And this is assuming India stays out of the conflict.
This is divide and conquer tactics. Ridiculous idea put out there just to convince the neighbours of war coming
Yep, a NATO of the pacific would be easy to imagine, also, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Australia will follow whatever order gets barked from US. Very low self-esteem there ( militarily wise).
@@adelinad3513 more like: only +- 20 million people. It looks big but population wise they are too small to take initiative on their own.
but good luck sailing a non-aligned navy into southeast asia without their consent tbh
Anybody know the name of the background music at the beginning of the video?
Good content!
There has been a recent implementation of the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the USA and the Philippines, wherein US troops and ammunition are allowed to be stationed within an additional 5 bases (was already 4, the goal is 10). Furthermore, any declaration or act of war to the United States or the Philippines would activate the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. These factors could greatly lower the chance of a Chinese attack on both countries or act as a deterrent. As a Filipino, I surely hope that diplomacy prevails and that we free our EEZ from the hands of the CCP.
the dragon the bear and the Eagle are all evil my friend
I think the American team is quite obvious I'll name all allies guranteed to fight china in a ww3 situation whether they like it or not
USA, SKorea, Japan, Canada, Taiwan, UK, Australia, Phillipines, and Zealand
This coming from the morally straight camel right?
USA has been working with its allies more and its been doing quite a good job…Another thing a U.S mainland invasion is impossible because Americans are armed to the teeth plus our military plus rugged terrain plus we have a large population too….The only thing I can maybe see China attack thats not the mainland is Alaska along with Russia or Hawaii,Guam,Puerto Rico but I doubt all of them besides Guam and Hawaii.
@@Student0Toucher the war is for Pacific controls tbh after we destroy chinas navy we should ceasefire rather than land invading, once we absorb Nkorea we should halt the line
"China will have to invade it's neighbors"
Vietnam: Lol
Excellent video
A correction: PRC refers to the line as the 9 dashes line. ROC calls it the 11 dashes line.
The channel's coverage of everything related to China has really suffered. It tends to make sweeping strategic endeavors as its base and goes downhill from there. As if it would just be super easy for China to take over Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines (among others) before the US has a chance to make a single move. Real life isn't a turn-based game; events happen in real-time, and the other players on the board wouldn't take a single one of these actions laying down. There are frankly many other problems with this "analysis" that make it so flawed as to be useless, even for purely educational or entertainment value.
Coups have to be masked in peace time. During wartime, divisions killing a president and the pro-CCP armies taking over seems plausible. You don't need administrative or judicial power to keep your country together, you need the military.
end of the video he says EXACT OPPOSITE to this. So, what are you, a mad bot? or didn't you even watch the video till the end?
nah Vietnam is ez pz, quick war home by christmas boys!
China already tried invading vietnam once and lost. Why would they try again? Holy hell.
@@just1it1moko Which Christmas?
Reality is demographically China won't be able to carry it off, which is why the 2020s are the riskiest time. China knows its "now or never" with Taiwan for example.
The same applied to Russia. Putin had to move, or the window would close for all time.
Demographics don't matter to naval power because navies are captal-intensive. That's why Britain and the US have historically dominated the global oceans with a fraction of the world population.
By 2050 if a miracle doesn't happen, chinese demography will be in total unbalance and won't be able to fix it on the short run... sending their young to war now is a demographically suicide, they just can't lose them
@@user-ln6wn5po2w Of course, they always repeat the same talking points, lol.
@A B Zeihan is the cult leader of American teens who previously used to hoard toilet papers for the end times. They found a new toy.
Thank you .
Wow nice info.
Why aren't the Japanese, Indonesian, Singaporean, Malaysian... Navyes mentioned? I don't think they would take kindly to China invading all of southeast Asia not to mention the Japanese would likely intervene even in a Taiwan invasion scenario.
The Singapore is advanced but too little to stop the PLAN, the Malaysian Navy is behind the modernization and procurement curve the last decade due to fiscal issues, the Japanese are increasing their budget but they are having a demographic and debt problem. ASEAN alone can’t prevent either the US or the Chinese from moving their fleets around. We lack the hard assets to do that.
Really? They will choose USA sides? Or they will choose china sides?
@@fabianmok2206 It's not that the Chinese wouldn't hypothetically be able to beat back SEA states or Japan and Korea on paper. Rather, to do so while simultaneously wrangling the US would be absolutely bonkers and nigh impossible. Shirvan's illustration of China taking over SEA in order to oust the US is purely hypothetical and demonstrates one (crazy stupid) way the Chinese *could* overcome the US in the first island chain. I personally think Shirvan made a mistake showcasing this example as there are far more important obstacles China would need to overcome before they can even put an ounce of thought into that plan.
You don't know how many Chinese want Japan to disturb us when we unify Taiwan, then we have a chance to avenge the tens of millions of people in WWII, after all, Japan has not apologized for their deaths so far
@@user-kl4iz8ut1w two wrongs don't make a right. Move on, coexist with Taiwan and Japan. Start anew. What difference does it make if they live a different way to you all in China? It's worrying that this level of nationalism exists, potentially thrusting the world into the third world war. As an aside, you're utterly fucked in a war with Japan and the West so I wouldn't wish for that either.
This is one of those videos which is closer to fiction than reality. Unlike the regular Caspian videos.
Calling Okinawa “Ryukyu” in this context is one of signs that this Channel may be a Chinese propaganda tool.
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Backwards indian tamil darky
What did you expect? There's a card with Peter Ziehan's name in the first minute and a half.
More like is shows how regular Caspian videos have a base of fiction and reality, but until now you where considering them as just be truth.
@@bnfcj8987 This whole video was indeed a mess, but what you're trying to point out isn't a mistake. Okinawa is just one of the many Ryukyu Islands, which is their official name in English. In Japanese they're called the Nansei Islands.
Great presentation
Vietnam and the Philippines each have 100 million people, while Indonesia has 250 million people, not to mention Vietnam already defeated China in the 1970s on a land war. I dont think Chinese forces will be able to “land” on these countries so very easily without being bloodied more terribly than Russia is on Ukraine.
defeat? why Vietnam retreated from Laos Cambodia?
@@lvjinbin28 Bullshit they occupied them till 89
@@lvjinbin28 Vietnam didn't retreated from Laos Cambodia, but China retreated from Vietnam. But you can argue China retreated for other reasons such as Soviet Union's pressure.
@@alexN350z well, it seems you don't know Sino-Vietnamese Conflicts last 12 years, it's Sino-Vietnam border tension became cool until Vietnam retreated from Laos and Cambodia, you know Vietcong's goal was to unify whole French Indochina Federation at first place?
China hit and run within one month, because CCP used 'People's Warfare' and 'Tunnel Warfare' against Japan and Kuomingtang, CCP also sponsored and taught Vietcong to fight such guerrilla warfare against France and USA, so CCP is not stupid to get trapped in Vietnam like USA, communist know how communist to fight because CCP and Vietcong used to be blood ally, that's why CCP started 1 month 'Special De-industrilization and De-agriculture Operation' in Northern Vietnam, destroyed all infrastructure CCP fund during Vietnam War for revenge against Vietnam's pro-Soviet and anti-Chinese position.
2.CCP need to prepare from Vietnam's big bro Soviet invasion in Mongolia but Soviet didn't really attack China for Vietnam, then CCP kept sponsoring Afghan Maoist mujahideen against Soviet until 1989, CCP sponsored Khmer Rouge against Vietcong occupants, CCP also attacking Vietcong on border for one decade, it's for weankening Soviet's encirclement against China from North and South.
3.capitalism world lifted 30 years sanction on China, West Japan HK Taiwan even invested Deng's economic reform, even there's more countries embrace Beijing and abandoned Taiwan, UK even gave up HK peacefully to China.
4.Vietnam failed to unify Indochina, Soviet spent too much in Indochina and Afghanistan to contain China but collpased, China even killed 10 times more Vietnamese on border, so China really won this war militarily, economically, diplomatically, stragically, China's only loss is China never thought Soviet-led communism world was so fragile to collapse, which indirectly caused Tian'an men accident.
@@alexN350z 你脑子没睡醒？中国从越南撤退的原因是共产党不想占领越南。越南入侵柬埔寨 ，中国给力压力，越南从柬埔寨老挝撤出了。
03:37 error, India's defence budget is not 276 Billion USD. It is 76 Billion USD.
That would make that chart mke more sense
As a Malaysian, shit we dont wanna be dragged into a war nor do we want war in our region
if its starting you all will be dragged, so pick sides!
China's 9 Dash line cut through your EEZ, so your sea will be pretty much be the battlezone.
As an indonesian, same
Drink milo chill in the sun overlooking the SCS warfare
I have always believed that China and Malaysia cooperate more than compete in most places, and there are many Chinese friends from Malaysia by my side. To be honest, I think your worries about war are unnecessary
I didn’t reaslise America was in the China Sea🤦🏽♀️😂😂😂
America is everywhere... They think they own the world but will get a reality check soon. The first step is on the way, with the refusal of so many countries to use the dollar... Get the popcorn, we are in for a ride ahahahaha
In fact, before PRC, the ROC government claimed 11 lines. PRC reduces two lines agreed with Vietnam.
I’m actually surprised that there isn’t more ASEAN countries or any South Asian countries wanting to go to war against the USA who is the true aggressor. The USA have about 800 military bases around the world that makes you wonder that the US is wanting to invade several other countries. The US already have a huge massive border dispute & literal war in Mexico-American border. That and the negative NATO imperial expansionism currently happening nowadays that makes you very concerned why there isn’t more countries willing to fight or wage war AGAINST the United States or even awful imperial NATO. Truth is, USA is a way bigger awful aggressor than China and sort of shocks me that more countries align with US than China. Not to forget that the US is literally facing 5 massive wars at once currently.
Because they are no match. But once a worthy challenger appears, these countries can flip. Peoples often overestimate the strength of an alliance and are surprised by its sudden collapse (organizational theory). It is precisely because many members of an alliance are hedging only. They have been forced into alliance.
The US is a relatively distant power whose bases are often _wanted_ there to subsidize their national security and/or provide a convenient lightning rod to deflect domestic political anger at. Often there's more concern about the subsequent costs and consequences should the Americans leave. Ask the Philippines or Iraq or Afghanistan how secure they felt after US forces departed like they had asked.
Meanwhile China is viewed with significantly more suspicion especially as Chinese locals throughout history don't readily intermingle and integrate with the local majority. Chinese division and exclusion (and sometimes literal invasion) was seen akin to colonization, a sentiment that simmers at various strengths within ASEAN to this day.
"Don't you realize what it means if the Chinese remain? Don't you remember your history? The last time the Chinese came, they stayed a thousand years... As for me, I prefer to sniff French shit for five years than to eat Chinese shit for the rest of my life."
-- Ho Chi Minh, in reference to asking China to help liberate SE Asia
@@doujinflip Do Americans mingle and integrate into the foreign countries?
@@fool9111z Some do and some do not integrate. Americans that retire to other countries, live in the country as temporary workers, and digital nomads do not. Those who immigrate to other countries with the intention of becoming a citizen typically do integrate. However, there are significant differences between American immigration and Chinese immigration so equal comparisons between the two would be intellectually dishonest. Americans currently and historically emigrate in small numbers and never constitute a significant minority. Historically, the Chinese have emigrated in large numbers and still constitute a significant demographic in many southeast Asian nations.
@@doujinflipHow did the war in Afghanistan solve the issue of American national security? The Taliban won and something is not visible threat to the nation? And Afghanistan itself is destroyed
Its nice to predict these things like China achieving parity with the US fleet, but in reality I heavily doubt that will happen, as US will ramp up its own ship production should they feel threatened by China, just like the German-British naval arms race before WW1
We don’t know what the US or China is going to do. The US may cut military production.
There is a lot of information missing in this episode. Why would the Chinese go to war with Taiwan when they can change the political structure? We always try to plan the adversaries move as if they are our own. There is no proof of China going to war with Taiwan. Obviously they are close enough to negotiate with there neighbours and I’m sure their neighbours have been watching the moves of the West.
China has already surpassed the US navy.
It's up to the USA now how they will keep up because China has a target of 1200+ naval vessels by 2030.
US fleet production is already at 100% so we can't increase production. Its the reason why we can't build nuclear subs for Australia like they want. For the US to increase ship production, we would need a few more new ship building facilities, which takes a few years itself to build, after which, the ships being built there would take years to build and then some time to test and train more crews. Realistically, even if the US started today, we would be looking at 10 years before any rate increase saw dividends. But nobody is talking about new shipbuilding in the US right now, so it could be much further off.
The main issue with that is how the U.S. is going to man it. The U.S. Navy is already having manpower issues with a fleet of less than 300 ships, a 500 ship navy looks to be impossible with the current manpower pool. One solution is to reintroduce the draft but that's politcally unpopular, the Navy higher ups want to go with fully automated warships but nobody outside of the Pentagon thinks that's a good idea. At best they'll just be replacing older hulls with newer ones which isn't a bad idea and seems to be the plan they're going with considering the early retirement of the Ticonderoga-class cruisers.
The war ship now is not like ww2 easy to build, it's take long time to build a fleet now
Let's go!!
Nice report chess man.
What a time to be alive.
WW3 is going to be lit!
hopefully we will stay like that
What a time to die you mean
Hope someone finally has the balls to shot the fireworks, it's about time fun goes nuclear.
@@joaocerceau5810 I hope it lands in your backyard.
That achilious heel booooyyyyy 😂😂😂😂😂
As a Vietnamese and a big fan of the channel, this video is wildly improbable, the chances of China even remotely knock out Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand in less a year is already nearly impossible consider the combine military power of this 4 country alone could hold back China endless assault for longer than needed for the international community to react. Vietnamese military have incredible amount of experience fighting on their own land, topped that with experience fighting against the chinese not that long ago, added extra air support and reinforcement from thailand and other south east asian country, there no chance China could breakthrough this line within mere weeks or months.
As an Indian, I have heard that Vietnamese are very brave fighters they know to defeat their enemies.
@@sudhanvahs9173 I don't think anyone has ever questioned Vietnam's resolve in battle apart from France and the US and they were both absolutely crushed.
agree, as part of asean i think that will be waste time to make this. looking to old japan empire that take east and south east asia just got nothing but their country got huge wound and much debt. I think olso claim neighbors maritime zone olso not good, just being normal asian i mean maybe we have uncontrolled emotion and dream but didnt make we need to be fight, just sit and talk together with some tea at table.
I'm Cambodian and logistically, it seems improbable. Laos and Cambodia still have active landmines leftover from the communist regimes. Dense jungles, mountains and active landmines will make it extremely difficult to take these two countries by land and air invasion.
Plus the resolve of the people being bullied to submission is also improbable. They've been through Japanese occupation, communist occupation and in fighting for years
大哥，你睁眼看看中国绝对优势的下水吨量还有领先数代的装备以及绝对优势的空军，怎么可能…………
My military contract ends in 2024
Hey caspianreport, how much was it?
Your analysis is simplistic, like something from a video game.
It's ridiculous is what it is. Huge drop in quality these past few months.
Absolutely. The expectation that China would invade the entirety of SE Asia is garbage, and ignores some other very real scenarios such as North Korea attacking South Korea as a means to divide the US and Japanese forces. This video I feel will bite Caspian in the ass.
@@ripvanwando hey man, kings and generals produce high quality content though
@@originalempa7037 in the past. now that they started doing propagandistic content about Ukraine and modern wars the quality of the channel has become very questionable. I preferred it when they made videos about ancient civilizations than ""proto Ukrainians"" now....
@@odilusporce8814 what’s the flag?
I think the irony in all this is how Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian oblasts is similar to the prelude to World War Two, while Russia’s ‘entente’ with China is analogous to the Soviet entente with Nazi Germany before Barbarossa.
We haven't learned *anything*, have we?
Lol no. War never changes, and history is doomed to be repeated.
while Russia’s ‘entente’ with Russia - you contradicted yourself there, fix it?
@@Smytjf11 Not much.
All these mastermind historians in the comments man, let me try aswell
War never changes
History is written by the victors
Did you know that there is EDCA deal between Philippines and USA? There's a "mutual defense treaty" between the 2 countries too and it's one of the oldest. So it's unlikely that they will land in the Philippines.
EXACTLY!! And the process of building at least 4 more US bases in the Philippines is already underway. The renewed commitment of US and Filipino mutual defense is VERY bad news for China.
China already has had to rethink it's strategy regarding bullying the Filipino Navy and Coast Guard in the Philippines' territorial waters.
In case of shooting war, China need not to invade the Philippines to destroy all the EDCA sites. China will just send their hypersonic missiles. Google China's Rocket Force.
3:32 who tf made that chart lmao
India 276 billion - takes less area
China 230 billion - takes larger area
Me, a healthy, physically fit college-aged male: *no no pls don’t do this*
Look on the bright side. History will be made!
Don't worry about it. The US will be out of the war before you can make it out of basic training
@@andrewlechner6343But your contribution to the history books is likely to be as a number on the casualty count.
If you're some high ranking officer or some other high status member of the ruling elite then this kind of stuff should be exciting for you, you have a good chance of marking your name in history. But if you're just some random nobody, then your place in history will be "conscript number 0164786, lost both his legs, lost 6 fingers and fuction to his left eye due to enemy artillery rounds while he was sleeping in his trench."
War is not kind to normal people. Not exciting at all.
We’ll be home by Christmas?
@@gamincaimin9954 Exactly! Just don't ask which Christmas.
The footage shown at 4:31 & 5:49 is actually from Mexico City's Independence Parade, celebrated every September 16th.
Damn, Mexico didn't have to flex that hard.
Not the cartel?
@@jamchavez3330 Chill chavo Chavez, if you're looking for the cartel, you know where to find it, is not like its hiding.
Paseo de la Reforma avenue.
@@jamchavez3330 hahaha. The cartel parading in the capital city? That would mean that the government is over. That won't happen anytime soon.
I'm literally on the edge of my seat
Well done
Love the videos as always, but the chart at 3:35 shows Indian defense spending at $276.6B whereas it is only $76.6B
Yeah as a Indian i wish that was the budget lol , But yeah maybe in 2033.
I have same concerns concerning US numbers in his charts tbh. $816bn for the US seems already quite far from the real spendings.
2 and 7 wasn't so close lmao, i guess he did on purpose to his delusional indian fans
@@darthashpie3370 yeah in 2033 for sure
True. Not to even mention Japan's titanic defense budget increase.
"The bottom line is that an American-Chinese war is unlikely in the next decade."
There, saved you 13 minutes.
China took care of business with the U.S. in 1950 when it smashed the U.S. Army during the Korean war and declared it's independence from the U.S.!
This
Fucking, thank you lol 🎉
Are you sure that the U.S and China won’t go to war in the next decade? Also is there any chance of a draft coming back in the U.S
@@demikavato4275 I doubt there would be a draft. Western countries rely on votes, voters don't vote for anyone who would even mention a draft. Plus it lowers the quality of your army generally. Higher casualties are bad for votes and public opinion. Sad but that's the science behind it.
next video, some dude's memo predict possibility aliens from outer space will invade us in 2025
On 60 minutes which is US national TV news journalist we're talking to Navy Commander that China and America tensions are real in the pacific. So this video makes sense
One thing I think is always missed in analysis like this is that it doesn't put into account that countries like Taiwan, Japan, and Australia would also get involved tipping the balance of power even further to the allies. Although you mentioned it briefly you didn't take into account the Japanese armed forces or Taiwans armed forces etc.
Australia is getting a nuclear submarine capable of hitting the Malacca Strait. That would end most of China's ability to import and export. Even stopping the sale of Australian raw materials to China would heavily disrupt their industrial capacity. And to speak of Japan - alone they have a better navy than China and probably always will.
also, he made no mention whatsoever of the new deal between USA and the Philippines for a few land based military bases on North Luzon, and Palawan as of around 3 weeks ago.
@@Gizziiusa yeah I thought that was going to be his final point but maybe he started this video before the news broke 🤷🏾♂️
@@jonjeskie5234 very possible.
Japan will never leave us as we ready to fight for our allies like Japan, S. Korea, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and Australia.
The 2020s just keep getting better!
Just wait till 2026 😉
Oh believe me. There will be nothing better than 2030...
@The13thRonin That has nothing to do with Biden... By the way, he was the first president to say that in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan the US would step in with military force. Even Trump didnt say that. It was all the years just an open secret. I am not even from the US and I know this. ;)
The roaring 20's
Lol yeah
The 🐐 of commentary , his raw emotions and sense of humor and him just being himself and being damn good at What he does 🔥 never will have another one like him 🔥🔥🐐
The right title : “America predict a lot of money fo US military industries and politicians” they didn’t learn from Iraq and Afganistan war
I dont think it would be easy for China to take over the countries around the South China Sea as you make it seem. Philippines and Indonesia are massive archipelagos which are absolute hell in terms of logistics. Imagine trying to coordinate an attack on Indonesia ; hundreds of islands full of mountains and harsh terrains., which is perfect for guerilla warfare. It's already difficult to invade one island, imagine with hundreds like Phillipines and Indonesia. It doesnt matter if you have the best military in the wolrd, terrain is king. Look at Afghanistan and how both absolute superpowers like the US and USSR failed their operations. Mountains, swamps, islands are all extremely difficult to take over even if you have a massive advantage over the defenders. Not only that, but the defenders know their land which make it easier for them to find loopholes in the terrains and punish the attackers.
Now imagine China trying to invade Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia (which will most likely be backed by the US if it happens). You also have to keep in mind that Japan is rearming very fast and is right on China's doorstep. Japan is probably the most strategically placed country in Asia which is why they are so important for the US. They are very close to China's land and they have a massive military that has incredible potentital.
Again, China might do it in the future but even if they surpass the US military, it won't be easy at all and I dont see how they could win a world war. The US still has the most influence over the entire world. Most countries are closer to the US than China, especially the powerful ones. NATO is still by far the largest military alliance and that doesnt even count the other US allies like Israel, Japan and Australia.
I mean I agree with most of your analysis but the US absolutely did succeed (militarily) in Afghanistan, that's how it held it for 20 years. It just became pointless after that. Osama Bin Laden was already dead.
Also, China has already tried to invade Vietnam and got beat up in the process.
no reason for NATO to get involved in a war like this.
Not NATO formally as a whole, but a lot of its members would independently support a US-led effort to thwart PLA objectives and prevent the effective expansion of a condescending unilateral autocracy.
@@donderstorm1845 depends who starts it. If China directly attacks USA then Article 5 gets invoked. Even if not the US can definitely count on at least the anglosphere
@@captainkyperplayz1162 there's no reason for China to attack the US mainland, and NATO article 5 doesn't cover the pacific (NA stands for North Atlantic). so if China attacked for example guam, that wouldn't trigger article 5.
also not sure about the anglosphere getting involved. australia probably, but the UK is questionable. the UK's navy hasn't been all that strong lately anyway, especially their cababilities of sailing all the way to the west pacific and maintaining a fleet there. their carrier HMS Prince of Wales barely left British waters before it broke down and had to sail back.
there's not a whole lot the AU navy can do either. AU's biggest help to the US would be a permanent base for US ships/aircraft and logistics, but AU is still really far from China.
it's doubtful that Indonesia and other regional states would allow allied bombers for example to fly over their airspace to attack China. so AU would mostly be a base to repair ships and resupply them. and that's assuming those shipyards stay intact.
Did you know? Philippines will get 4 bases(US/Ph) plus missile systems plus a huge upgrade to their coast guard? I live in the Philippines 🇵🇭 💕
Good luck to your people. Hope these predictions will come false and you will never have to share similar to what Georgians, Ukrainians and Chechens had with this cancerous tumour of planet earth that Russia is.
yeah and it's going to be a battlefield soon
and those new bases will mark a new target on where they are built so i hope you dont live to close or you might get caught in a cross fire if war starts
Yeah you guys should have remained United States colony. We were making you civilised
@@uhidk18 😂😂 fix your cities first. Our cities look more modernized and advanced than your prime jule NYC.
Unsinkable aircraft carrier islands initially appear to be a good idea until it became unrealistic as in the Snake Island of Ukraine.
Anyone read the title? America predicts...not CR predicts.
2050 seems like the more appropriate key year.
If we are all around.
Change in the Mandate of Heaven at the next major planetary alignment: 8 September 2040.
The 2040 grouping will include Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and the crescent Moon.
Fall of the CCP?
It is the US that wants war in 2025, it wants to blockade china to plunge its economy. So that US remains the sole financial/economic power of the world
Except for the fact that China's power projection is set to wane in 2030.
Xi Chung Un will be dead by then yo
To be fair, just look how the United States reacted when Russia became involved in Cuba and you can understand why China is acting the way it acts. It is pretty much just doing what the US does.
Nah, Russia was sending missiles to be installed in Cuba that could hit the US mainland within minutes. The US was never going allow them to have that capable. The US isn’t installing missiles in Taiwan to strike China. They don’t need to as they have nuclear subs and other systems already in place.
@@Rushinator1 The nuclear subs are just as provocative. How would you like it if China or Russia were to sail their NUCLEAR subs in the Gulf of Mexico. Even if they do that now which I don't think they do, the US seems to be the aggressor in many circumstances.
@@Rushinator1 No, US did. The US is passing an arms sales bill to Taiwan, which angers China to sanction Lockheed Martin. This all happens for few years and recently.
Additionaly, the US also encouraged ASEAN countries to provoke China.
@@Rushinator1 THAAD in South Korea? to deter NK? xDDD
Not really as the USA didn't threaten invasion of Cuba. They tried multiple times and 80 assassination attempts on Fidel Castro. Plus you don't see China changing regimes around them.
Wanted to let you know, "come to blows" is kind of its own idiom, phrased just like that...there aren't really other contexts where one would refer to violent conflict as "blows" except in that phrase, and while I can totally understand why you'd want to make it singular (i.e. "come to a blow," as you said) it just isn't really used in that way. Even one punch getting thrown would still be described as things "coming to blows"
Am I just not updated on this enough or that chart on defense spending seems kinda wrong with regards to India's military spending?
American just agreed with the Phillipines to build a few new bases. 💪🏽😉
They didn't agreed, they obeyed. In exchange for something ofc, because that's how it works.
@@ivanjokovicthey agreed to it because China is threatening to their territorial waters, it doesn't take a fucking genius to see why they made a deal
@@ivanjokovic we agreed and even invited them ourselves, in exchange for the assurance and protection of the US bases. Also for the added assistance in modernizing our armed forces. We tried pushing against this deal a few years back to maintain good relationships with both countries, especially China. However this has backfired with china occupying Filipino islands and even bullying our fishermen in our OWN territory, a mere few kilometers from the main islands. Hence why we invited the US in the first place.
@@ivanjokovic Marcos meeting with XITLER earlier must have gone wrong, obey? Haha China’s mad it has literally 0 friends besides North Korea.
@@dubogoxfordmontefalco7735 Ourselves? Bruh you're not part of the elite stop kidding yourself. Lmfao
Im impressed by the way you pronounce regions and places in asia. I think you pronounced most if not all of the Philippines regions correctly.
Yeah, it appears he does research the pronunciation of the regions he is going to talk about, unlike many American CZcamsrs who pronounce it terribly on their first try and don't even bother to spend 1 minute looking it up.
He has an very heavy Indian accent and most probably from India so why surprised?
He's from Azerbaijan, not India (hence the name Caspian Report)
@@brianliew5901 nope
Good exemple on how USA become a superpower, by preventing or destroying other countries.
THE DATE IS SET BY USA AND JAPAN , NOT CHINA . LATE 2023 OR EARLY 2024 THE SHOW WILL BEGIN , AND NUKES EXCHANGE IN MID 2024.
The pie-chart at 3:35 shows Indian defence spending at 276.6 Billion, the correct value (graphically represented too) is close to 76 Billion.
1.9% of GDP
This whole situation is complicated so I sympathize with trying to sum up the possibilities in this situation. You didn't even mention subs. The US had japans shipping almost completely shut down by the time we reached the mainland in WWII.
US in order to sink Chinese economy wants china to invade Taiwan so that US can then blockade china - plunging china's economy. China is aware of this and wont go to war unless US really provokes it.
Only way china will invade Taiwan is if it declares independence. China has repeatedly conveyed this to US that Taiwan's independence is a red line. Just like Russia considered Ukraine joining NATO - The Red Line. But US still went on to provoke Russia to go to war.
US Master Plan is to maintain its economic status by engineering wars in Asia and Europe while US stays out of them so that it comes out as the dominant economy just like after ww2. European war has already started.
Considering that China is facing a demographic implosion in the near future given the way trends are going, and that they'd have to fight not just the U.S. but probably Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines; this projection is way too crazy to be practical.
China and the United States had a fight on the Korean peninsula in history, didn't you know? It was in 1950, when China ended its century-long foreign war and civil war. It was also the second year after the establishment of the China government. At that time, China could not even eat.
Like many other things, almost all wars build gradually and then suddenly. That sudden part this time around will be particularly deadly
US Master Plan is to maintain its economic superpower status by engineering wars in Asia and Europe while US stays out of them so that it comes out as the dominant economy just like after ww2.
European war has already started! Asian war is under construction and will start when Taiwan declares independence, provoking China to invade.
This channel is becoming more and more comical
Set a Google Calendar Reminder with this video link for December 2025 and come back here and comment
How can you "predict" a war you're actively pursuing 😂
China has not fought a war for decades. Their military is untested. Also Japan, India and others have an input into this.
Oh yeah I bet Emma and her two moms and ready to rumble, and I’m sure all that experience fighting illiterate goat herders will help against the PLAN.
And us military is twitching from jab side effects and suicidal. Better to not fight at all and forget all about this and plan. Yes, we won't have the usd as a global currency but we might get better at making stuff .
@@jakemocci3953 lmao. You think your actually shown what the us military is capable of. Emmas moms arent fighting anything. theres families who all they do is join the military. Good luck, but not really
@@87sabbo Not anymore, our statues got torn down. Emma and the rest of the rainbow brigade is going to have to handle it.
@@jakemocci3953 try the destruction of Sadaam Husseins entire military twice
China: "This is my sea"
World: "No it's not!"
USA: "South America is my backyard"
World: "🤐"
The weakness of hypersonic missiles is their speed. Deploying a cloud of suicide drones close enough to the path of the missle removes it ability to maneuver.
Hey, would you be able to provide links to where this information/analysis originated from?
I think it remains to be seen how good Chinese naval and air technology is. There are lots of stories of Chinese navy ships hugging the coast and being reluctant to tackle the open sea.
Sailing around practically unopposed is one thing, unarmed merchant vessels do this routinely. It's a different game to try performing missions under the constant threat of hostile anti-ship assets.
Look. China doesn't want war, because War is bad for business.
The military doctrine of China is different from the U.S.
In the U.S. Their main strategy is all about the biggest, baddiest and most deadly weaponry you can invent and operate.
In China, their main strategy is about protecting trade routes, coastal securities and political stability.
You don't need a 5000-men super-carrier to combat a small fishing boat that armed with couple starving pirates.
This is also why in term of tonnage, The U.S Navy is by far the heaviest in the world.
But in term of number of ships and variety. Chinese Navy is the biggest in the world.
Only US is interested in invading other countries. Media is so bias, it wants a conflict so your factory owners can get paid to make more weapons.
@@Commievn shame I can't "super like" this comment. The vast majority of us who consume western news media often believe China to be a war mongering aggressor because of it's sabre-rattling on Taiwan alongside a dubious human rights track record (both, of course, are true). But the fact remains, China has never been a war mongering nation. The Chinese mindset is fundamentally Confucian, which is to say it is conservative and preaches mostly about stability and economic prosperity above all else. They would never be so stupid as to engage in a mindless war of aggression over Taiwan if it meant destabilising its own economic base. A lot of the aggressive rhetoric is simply about posturing. The CCP does not want to appear weak and one to be easily bullied on the world stage, both to its own people and other global powers. This entire video is fearmongering click-bait and has been rightly criticised for it.
@@Commievn protecting trade routes by stealing territories? no wonder our government been buying cruise missiles and aim at chinese artificial islands. lets see if they able protect with added more U.S. bases in near in taiwan and spratly islands.
Open conflict with China "could happen as early as 2025" made it sound a littlebit like a video game, like we got +25 diplomacy points with China, -5 per turn!
Problem is China will be facing 10 ASEAN nation, US, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, maybe India and other US's allies. Pretty sure it's not doable in a forseeable future.
whole nato as well at this point
@@slim5816Not really, as we see in Ukraine, the support is indirect. There are no NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine.
@@carlosandleon that’s because Ukraine is not a NATO country. An attack on American bases or territory’s would see NATO mobilize.
@@seanpruitt6801 I don't think so when the target is the host country instead.
China will barely be able to annex Taiwan assuming it tries something adventurous.
It only takes one misunderstanding to escalate things 😂
'meow'
To me it was like looking for a reason for the US to preemptively attack China and look good in the process.