China could invade Taiwan by 2027
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- čas přidán 2. 04. 2021
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Top US military officials believe that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years owing to the fact that America is distracted by domestic issues.
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Thanks papa
Thanks papa
Thanks papa
no
lovely video
so china is doing the equivalent of running up to taiwan and pretending to punch
but stops one second before impact and sees if taiwan flinches
Exactly...!!
More than flinch, moving to block each and every time. They slowly sap a smaller opponent's energy. In a way it also primes them to accept conflict and it'll make their invasion of the small coastal islands nothing more than an inevitability that come to pass.
It's how middle Eastern countries invaded Israel; they slowly eroded the county's alertness at the border and then invaded after the Israelis let there guard down
Yup, pretty much.
Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times.,
My mom grew up in Taiwan. She said that during her childhood, lots of people talked of a peaceful reunification with mainland China. However my mom said that after so many years of separation, that the number of people feeling that way has significantly decreased.
Spot on
Taiwan should have proclaimed independence when Chiang Kai Shek was still alive....
It's too late, now....
@@ayi3455 The #Nationalist# Party, Sun Yat-sen established this party in the beginning to revive China. How can they put aside their national and cultural identity, split the nation, and become national sinners. Chiang did not surrender after the capital and half of China was occupied by Japan. You don't understand his national feelings. He wanted to return to the mainland until his death.
Why would you want a reunification with that country?
Why was my writing erased....???
Great video Shirvan!
Just a few comments…
(1) a blockade of Taiwan would essentially shut down every factory in the world. The current semiconductor conductor shortage is showing a glimpse of that. A wide coalition would open those shipping lanes quickly.
(2) USA has other ways to retaliate against a shock and awe invasion of the outer islands. This level of aggression could be used to justify stationing troops in Taiwan. That would clear up any ambiguity.
Taiwan has been very smart, making themselves essential to every country in the world through their semiconductor manufacturing.
Also, what would China really gain? They would gain 20 M dissidents and rid themselves of their boogeyman. Seems like a bigger problem than it’s worth.
yes...but don't underestimate PRIDE...
You already said it. They supply 80% of the world's total supply of semiconductors. That's why China wants control now more vs previous decades. The only solution is to completely eliminate the communist party of China. Otherwise "The Great Leap Forward" is something we can all look forward too.
They would get rid of the single most dangerous staging ground for any naval invasion of China, plus gain control of the aforementioned high-tech industries. Not to mention the sheer propaganda victory of reunifucation. It's not like the CCP has nothing to gain, and if they can do it without directly fighting the US, they will surely go for it.
@KJJ along with investors from other countries, the Taiwanese are divesting from PRC and have been moving to places like Southeast Asia. PRC also seems to feel it's ok to decouple from the world economy as it thinks its domestic economy can run on its own; and it's been cutting certain commercial connections with Taiwan as part of its retaliation toward Taiwan. Surveys in Taiwan show 2% to 7% of the population would join PRC, and great majority wanting stronger declaration of their current independence or maintaining status quo (with most of them seeing the status quo as seeing Taiwan is already independent, so nothing more needs to be done toward that end). Over the past 30 years, it has been shown that every time PRC threatened Taiwan, the Taiwanese have been resolved to move further away from PRC. The current trend shows the Taiwanese wanting to keep moving away from PRC.
I keep telling people that last one. Even if China sucesfully invaded Taiwan, their victory would simultaneously be their failiure. They'd end up with a massive influx of very angry dissidents (never a good thing for a country), 36km² of land to occupy for a long time (which would be cost a fortune in money and manpower) and the diplomatic repercussions would be absurd. Nearly every foreign market in the world would close all trade to China and dishonour any loans they may have ongoing. Not to mention the massive disruption it would cause to nearly all of the Chinese populace, especially those near Taiwan and the coastline. It would significantly lower their quality of living, making them a lot poorer and hungrier.
So basically China's whole plan relies on exhausting Taiwan militarily and economically without firing a single bullet. that's actually brilliant.. and terrifying
@John McStaff who's dreaming it won't happen? I'm just stating a fact and that is China is tiring Taiwan before moving in for the kill.
I hope Taiwan won't be invaded but I know it will happen soon
@John McStaff yes.
@John McStaff the blacker the better ❤️
Would never happen China got no balls it loves money to much
@@lonemaus562 China is slowly getting less dependent on the US and focuses on markets in western Asia and Africa for people to sell goods to and to get resources from. So yeah, once they do that they'll most likely attack Taiwan
“We can invade that country, our rivals won’t care, they’re too busy” Where have I heard this kind of rhetoric before?
Nazi Germany
Oh no
Germany invading belgium in WW1 and Poland in WW2
I mean sure the world wars but I was thinking more recent like Crimea
Every American war since WW2?
I find this very chilling. We've never really seen two fully modern countries in this technological age go to all our war. I'm frightened of a modern city will look like in the aftermath of modern warfare.
I won't deny though that fear carries certain morbid curiosity too.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan gives us a good glimpse of what it is like. Drones and air superiority is a major factor.
@@gszd55 not really
Look at Fallujah
@SRA89 idk bro i just have a feeling it will feel like real life arma 3
A good report and informative. But this was done months ago and the situation is changing. The abandonment of Afghanistan and internal stresses in China seem to be making Xi and the CCP a lot more aggressive. I would not be surprised if this event blew up, now, within a much shorter span than 6 years.
They’ve been hoping to invade for the past 70 years so just do it
@Fraternity Guard You mean on behalf of Saudi Arabia.
@Fraternity Guard The paper dragon. China's bouble is gonna go bust, big time soon. Evergrande ready to drag that Chinese Economy in DEFLATION........same thing that caused the Great Depression of the 1930s.
@@josephruiz7233
Evergrande is going down and hurting the Chinese economy, because that's ehat the Chinese government wants, they're the ones causing the problem, to end the company's control over real estate.
If you think that eill take China down, or think that China's economy is a bubble, you're a fool mate.
The moment China take over the TSMC in Taiwan, it's the US that is going down.
@@josephruiz7233 I heard this ten yrs ago, and hopefully what you said will come true soon, i can't eager to find out. Evergrande, hahahaha, naive
China has fifty years of tactical initiatives to take back Taiwan. I suppose you can think that the US has the same time to keep China out of Taiwan.
Relax man.
There is no war needed.
Taiwan is already the republic of china since the 90s
@@purnamapurnama828 lol tell that to their elected leaders, their Olympian’s, and pretty much everybody else in the world. Taiwan is Taiwan. Isn’t that what they say now?
@@gavindy_Sv2 lol 😂😂😂😂. So true. I think everyone need to wake up now and face the reality that taiwan is republic of china 😂
@@purnamapurnama828 China is different from Taiwan not in international view but they are two different political entities
Hello, please REVIVE the WORLD STOCK MARKETS and WORLD ECONOMY and stop this boring repeated Eurocrisis WW3 boring propaganda template. How are we gonna revivie the world economy and create jobs?? please brainstorm!!!
Goodness. That would be the most horrific siege in recent history.
Me: man all the interesting history already happened!
Also me seeing this: YO YO EVERYBODY CHILL
@@s1mplem4gic58 Same hahaha
Not even. Ever heard of the siege of constantinople? Stalingrad? Leningrad? But...it would be terrible
@@weirdshibainu Yeah nah. World population has exploded ever since, so countries can throw a lot more meat in the fight than before, and the means of killing have become a hundred times more advanced.
taiwan belongs to china 🇨🇳
"A Dumb man complains about a tear in his pocket while a smart man uses it to scratch his balls" - Xio Jingi
I googled that name and nothing showed up😂😂😂😂 who the fuck is that??
@@killertaco8themaster773 Pretty sure it's not a real person...great quote though.
@@sweetrain9482 If he made that name up, then he's a comedic genius
@@killertaco8themaster773 I think he was trying to spell xi jing ping
Scratch his what now?
You left out one enormous problem for China; the sea currents around Taiwan are among the most difficult to navigate in the world. For 10 months of the year, an invasion fleet will be scattered all over the place and totally ineffective with only May and October suitable.
This is one of the most stressful channel and I cant stop watching...
It's hard not to be overwhelmed.
Messy situation, thankfully we have incredible, experienced and professional military strategists fighting in the comments
I feel much more reassured thank you
we are getting close to 2027
2 years just went by
"Peace can only be secured by preparing for war" That's so true!
Si vis pacem, para bellum. A 2000 year old wisdom.
But the people live in and the leader won’t understand the point about the war
If you want peace prepare for war. The world needs to unite against this power hunger.
Put in other words, "speak softly, and carry a big stick."
Invade is a strange misspelling of reclaim. Terrorists and secessionists must be punished wouldn't you say?🤣
🚪🛏🇨🇳🔪🔜🛐🩸⚰🥩🍽🚮😜
If war happens the developed cities which took decades to build will be burned to ground in just a couple of days. It would be heartbreaking for citizens of those cities and the world as well😞😞😞
This happen in Iraq,Iran,yeamen, Syria.now next target may be Taiwan
western media in 40 years (or more):"China _____ invade Taiwan by _____"😂
A big factor to be taken into account would be the reaction of other neighobring countries. An invasion of Taiwan would inevitably see the emergence of an anti-Chinese coalition all around it.
And? Who cares? Commies would never do it if cost outweighs benefit.
@@timurermolenko2013 because if india, japan, Australia, and the United States formed a coalition against China then China is screwed. All it takes is a naval blockade of China to stop food and fuel so the Chinese starve and economy collapses.
@@redqwertyu Exactly.
China's big weakness is the fact that it's VERY easy to blockade it.
Also, this would trigger a mass exodus of foreign companies and the termination of a fuckload of contract. Inevitable sanctions would prevent any western bank or corporation from doing business with China.
In effect, China's economy would be severed from everyone but Russia.
@@themetroidprime ideally yes. Unfortunately, Western countries are ruled by corporations which own the government. If some companies exit China, other companies will try to take advantage of it. Chinese government knows that some Americans will leave China others will make even better deals with them. They will use this weakness against us. Needless to say it's much harder to force several governments to cooperate. Look their reaction at Hong Kong.
@@timurermolenko2013 Invading Taiwan in a gruesome conflict will not have the same effect. I agree western corps are morally bankrupt but this would be too luch to take.
A wise king never seeks out war...but must always be prepared for it.
Fact
@@A.D.540
It's from Thor
That goes for both sides
Yes! Oden.
be ready for it*
It's kind of amazing how such a small piece of land has the ability the sway the tides one way or another.
Ukraine has changed the calculus on this
I will come back to this video in 6 years too confirm or not
Same!
Me
Based on what China is capable of, i think it's possible to happen.
@@worldabominationorworldpea9310 china is a paper dragon
@@dom_toredo With nuke.
"War is politics by other means", the old chump Clausewitz is always on spot.
"Politics is a continuation of war by other means" - Foucault's inversion of Clausewitz aphorism
@@theopenacademy9102 War is politics with violence. Politics is war without violence. - Fred Hampton
@My master Oh the techinicalities, like "blowjob is not sex", "monetary help is not financing", "Turkey is not Europe", "french Canandians are not latinos", we all love technicalities.
“Give her the dick” - Rene Descartes
@@theopenacademy9102 Thinking of war causes people to spout aphorisms. - me
It’s interesting seeing this video after Russia invaded the Ukraine it showed that a land invasion is extremely difficult even if it’s a country on your border if Russia can’t defeat the Ukraine on land it seems nearly impossible that china will be able to pull off an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.
There are some significant differences though: 1. Ukraine has lots of swampy areas, and is 16 times the size of Taiwan. 2. China spends about 5x more on their military than Russia. But one lesson they should learn from Ukraine, it that it's not about whether you can win land, it's about whether you can win hearts. Without significant support from the population for reunification, a post-invasion occupied Taiwan would just become an infected open wound -- and all the caused pain, anger and instability could spread back towards the mainland.
stuipd commentary, Taiwan is an island lol
This is insanely informative. I had no idea there was such a form of warfare called hybrid warfare and that using in a sense “subtle passive aggressive” movements would drain Taiwan…
i know this would be very irresponsible of the government. but what would china do if Taiwan would just not respond to air threats until aggression is shown. that way they won't spend resources and if china would show aggression the world would have reason to intervene.
@@just1it1moko I don’t have a major in politics so others could add on to this but from my perspective, letting another countries have free reign over your air space can lead to them have free surveillance over all your military assets, defensive locations and key installations. It would be disastrous.
I think the question that comes to mind is why not shoot down such intrusions and it comes down to how far inland that fighter is willing to go such that Taiwan can claim that sufficient attempts to warn the pilot and yet it didn’t heed it. Taiwan also doesn’t want to be seen as the aggressor on the world political stage, after all China loves to cry really loudly.
@@just1it1moko The US is trying to convince the Taiwanese government not to respond to the air threats. There is no need for Taiwan to respond; this is a matter of face(unfortunately a big deal in the Eastern countries) and there is no way China could invade using an air force.
@@apcotdaniel9707 It would be risky but yes, I think it's only a matter of time before one of the Chinese jets gets too close and it will be fired upon. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
Retired Judge's Reflection of HK
czcams.com/video/2rQ7jmTwQrI/video.html
We often meet our destiny on the road we take to avoid it.
That's such a good quote. Thanks a lot
Please obey the King.
@ken m True. China should stop appeasement of obvious separatists and imperialists (they should be easy to identify after revealing themselves) just like in Hong Kong -- it only emboldens the losers to find out the hard way.
@@tritium1998Communist China is pretty much just a modern Nazi Germany, instead of appeasing again, we should just annihilate them
Indeed, it sounds like fucking 1914 all over again
🇹🇼 needs to start a go fund me page so me and the homies can get ya some missile defense systems
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-American_Mutual_Defense_Treaty
They’ve got one
@@Kastaru expired long ago 😂
I guess u probably just wanna make money for yourself 😉
Imagine his go fund me manages to raise 100 mil plus😂
But they're a rogue state of the People's Republic of China that lost the Chinese Civil War and continue to hang on by a thread.
How quickly the world has changed
when i saw 2027 my first thought was, "that long? 2027s awfully optimistic"
Is that based on your knowledge about the capability's of their military's though. Amphibious landings are the hardest operations in warfare. The allies had a local advantage of 4 to 1 and an air advantage of 10 to 1. Still 10,000 troops died on those beach's and 250,000 troops died in the Normandy campaign. China has a significantly smaller advantage and those casualties would still make up a large portion of the Chinese military. Realistically they would lose a lot more.
Edit: This was before I watched the video, clearly he explains this is in the video anyways.
As Taiwanese, please allow me to express my appreciation for your help to explain the malevolence we suffering for 70 years. I'm going to take military service in the next year, and I know that peace can only be achieved by preparing for war.
I am an Indian student, And I really impressed by the way, Taiwanese are standing their ground in the midst of constant communists' aggression.
@EpyonX I have a feeling Taiwan would be backed by the U.S. M.A.D. Should hopefully prevent an invasion
Hong Kong support the country of Taiwan 🇹🇼
Taiwan ultimately will be reunited with mainland China, that's just an unavoidable solution, it has nothing to do with the form of governing of current China, whether it's communist autocracy o western democracy.
Huge respect
You said the Kinmen and Matsu islands are just off the Taiwanese coast but on the map the are just off the Chinese coast. I'm actually surprised these tiny islands are still in Taiwanese control, they are so close to China
Yeah, that was a mistake on his part
These islands have been shelled from shore batteries in the past
@@artembolshakov3901 yes. It seems like they will be the first things to get taken by China.
@@alexanderinsubordinate1861 These islands are economically dependent on mainland China and most of the locals are anti-independence, because they are relatively isolated from Taiwan island. China would likely skip these islands and strike Taipei first to cripple the civilian government. If they occupy Kinmen and Matsu first, it will just buy time for Taiwan island to prepare and request immediate deployment from the US Okinawa garrison. The PLA would only occupy these small islands once the invasion of Taiwan island is in full swing, or if Taiwan tried to attack the PLA from these islands (but this is unlikely because the Taiwan military presence on the islands is tiny). The forces on the small islands would likely surrender very fast and make a deal to keep their autonomy. Not much would change for them if the PRC took control, unlike Taiwan proper.
Literally every second counts in such a risky operation.
@@sibeisun5272 Because "a deal to keep their autonomy" worked really well for Hong Kong, why would they trust the chinese?
"The first casualty of any battle is the plan of attack."
Wise words.
Who’s here after Ukraine and after China just threatened NATO not to get involved in Taiwan?
Did they really say something like that??? 😳 Any source???
I believe it was a threat not to create an Asian equivalent of NATO, but there is the Quad already and the US is obligated by treaty to defend Taiwan. Different situation.
@@deku812 what treaty obligates the US to defend Taiwan?
This video reminds me of a popular swiss military saying: if you want peace, you‘ve got to have cannons
Walk softly and carry a big stick.
*If you want peace, you’ve got to have cantons!
taiwan have cannons,bu no use, china's more bigger cannons are waitting
Although the Swiss Military is small, they have a huge reserve force. Every military age male is drafted must report for drill and upkeep their assault weapon issued to them.
It's ironically the Mainland Chinese who are following that doctrine.
As some people commented, the younger generations don't even have this sort of nostalgic memories and a will to reunite with the mainland. They see themselves as Taiwanese and this will only get more spread out as the population evolves. China would be pretty stupid to do this as they also have immense domestic issues to deal with, it's not only the US.
A large majority already does not want unification with China. I've lived in Taiwan, it wouldn't surprise me 80 or even 90% of Taiwanese doesn't want unification. In a decade this might be close to 99%. To forcefully integrate Taiwan into PRC should be regarded as a crime against humanity.
@@lulu-gt6kl Not If Daddy Xi Jinping has the money
@@mingomo why would anyone go into concentration camp because of money?
The people who want to be unify with China are KMT refugees.
They only consisted about 12% of Taiwan's population in the first place.
They are minority and ruled over Taiwan in the name of fighting against Communist backed by USA until Taiwan became democracy in 1990s.
The current ruling party is DPP founded in Taiwan. The president of Taiwan is from DPP. She is even a mix of Hakka Chinese and Paiwan aboriginal.
Before 1945, from 1895 to 1945, Taiwanese were educated to become Japanese, while the new nation ROC founded in 1912. Taiwanese did not participate the new foundation of this nation ROC. ROC even had a consulate in Taipei in 1930s.
It is all about education. KMT and CCP before 1940s both supported Taiwan independence from Japan. Now, they say Taiwan is part of China since ancient time.
One thing many people don't focus on is that KMT and CCP were founded with USSR help in Southern China of Guangdong/Canton in 1920s. KMT rose in power and became the ruling party of China in 1928. KMT had a good relationship with USSR until late 1930s. KMT switched to USA after Japan attacked USA's territory of Hawaii. After 1945, KMT gained Taiwan as the result of siding with USA(maritime areas), but KMT lost Manchuria, Inner-Mongolia, and rest of Mainland China because USSR had more power on the Continental areas. What I am trying to say is that Taiwan has been under USA's influence since 1945. Unless CPP, KMT, or any other governments that side with USA can take Taiwan with USA's permission, no country can take over Taiwan passing by USA.
Why do u think they canceld india first make the south virus land fight in the south china seas
By far the most intelligent video on the subject I’ve seen.....👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
The scariest part of the video was all the cars driving in reverse at 14:36
Good eyes lol
As a Taiwanese person, I never knew we actually had a competent military lol.
The shipping blockade also ignores the fact that almost all current high tech chips are currently produced in Taiwan. TSMC's inability to produce enough high end chips has resulted in a chip shortage everywhere, if there was a blockade, it would bring electronics production in North America and EU to a grinding halt. Its hard to image the US military doing nothing if that were to happen.
Also, since Taiwan is a US ally, I wonder what it would mean for global geopolitics if they default on their obligations to defend Taiwan. What would be the point of joining NATO, if that mutual defense pact was known to be just a sham?
US citizen here, I swear to God our military better protect you guys. I can't really do anything about it realistically but I can only hope that our politicians dont screw you guys over. I am still upset that we as a country don't recognize independent taiwan. The US needs to put the PRC in it's place and show them who's boss by recognizing both states (but taiwan will have to abandon claims to the PRC lands and just be a real sovereign and sperate entity). I hope in th coming years that the US and taiwan really build up defense.
The Kurds agree🤣
captaincool07 is probably right
you don't, this is western propaganda
@@scenicdepictionsofchicagolife your country still stnads because it does not get involved with a emotional head like you do every time. You can say that the wars they fight in ME is unjust but all of them have careful considerations of economic interests behind them. And there’re reasons why they haven’t gotten involved in this issue. Governments don’t believe in the good guy bad guy narratives they tell you. They believe solely in economic benfits as they should.
Politics is war without bloodshed, War is politics with bloodshed...
I would say comparatively fewer, not "no bloodshed".
And vice versa.
@@icefl4re597 Its a quote from Mao, pls direct any critique his way...
@@antonk.2748 Oh, I see. Well, still is - politics can kill even without war, although without war it's fewer.
At the same time politics is like a semi civil war
If u count party vs party rivalry
China needs to be teach a lesson like they had with Vietnam and India.
i think everyone cause in history china was always peaceful and didn't want to do anything but for a thousand years all countries took advantage they rape their woman tortured the kids and made their husbands watch all of that in my way china has to make everyone pay for what they have done the dragon has awaken
@@gamers-xh3uc China has been a super power for 1000 years up until the Europeans came to Asia. Those rapes and things came from Japan and Mongolia and both of them have even taken care of. No excuse for authoritarianism! America and China can be friend and even allies once China is democratic and does not commit genocide!
@@anoon- have you heard of the opium wars and china's century of humiliation
I've posted your video to my Facebook feed. I'm often asked my opinion on this and similar topics only because of my pre-retirement occupation in the Intel Community. Your video matches my analysis but with a far better explanation than my own to the "Why" question. Well done and thank you for all your great work.
Taiwan makes highly sophisticated electronic chips, strategically desirable I reckon.
What's the chance of the PLA capturing an operational semiconductor plant? The invasion is not gonna be a surprise, mind you.
That will be immediately out of order the second this hypothetical invasion happens. Factory is the know how of the people in it
That as well
The chip factories would be the first to be destroyed in any war. Taiwan has little strategic importance and I will not support wasting American lives on it.
If TSMC were bombed or blockaded the economic effects on the West would be catastrophic. TSMC has
www.notebookcheck.net/TSMC-has-the-largest-market-share-in-the-global-semiconductor-manufacturing-industry-Counterpoints-Research.518137.0.html
"A study conducted by market research firm Counterpoint Research sheds some light on the global semiconductor manufacturing situation. As expected, TSMC leads the market with a total share of 28%. Taiwan-based UMC ranks second with 13% market share, primarily due to its investment in legacy process nodes (40nm and above). SMIC comes in third with an 11% share, followed Samsung and Global Foundries at 10% and 7%, respectively."
So TSMC+UMC+SMIC would have 28+13+11=52% market share. If China controlled or destroyed the Taiwanese fabs they could halve the supply of chips to the West. It's probably even worse if you just look at advanced semiconductor processes like 7nm.
China taking over Taiwan is to chips what Saddam taking over Kuwait and Saudi Arabia was to oil. Worse in fact because Saddam's Iraq was not a peer competitor to the US but the PRC is.
Informative Channel: *exists*
Skillshare: IM ABOUT TO SPONSOR THIS MANS WHOLE CAREER
Well, they also sponsor people like KnowingBetter....who knows surprisingly little on closer inspection.
But talks with a autoritative voice.
CaspianReport is top league in respect to information.
Taiwan is a small country but it has a strong and modern army and of course America would support Taiwan in a case of war! China would make a big mistake if it would attack Taiwan!
@@frankmueller6522
Dont be tooo sure.
Lets say the US is embroiled in a civil war / domestic upheaval due to power struggle (which given recent events is not unthinkeable)
Or has involved itself in a stupid overstretch like invading iran, which bind smost of its forces .....that help might be slow in coming.
And with the CCP´s bluewater fleet growing and modernizing a lot in the last years...they only need to secure a 80 km waterway until an invasion is fait accompli, while US supply routes are 8000km long at this point.
I do hope for nothing of the sort, of course.
But the US is well known historically to just drop small, not that important allies. Their aid cannot really be relied on.
Just 2014 china occupied the scarborough shoal, a islet within easy striking distance of manila and traditionally claimed and governed by the phillipines.
Formally, the US should have helped, having a defence pact with manila, and since their territory was invaded... but they did not. Sent a protest note, done. And now the ühillipines have an unsinkeable chines aircraft carrier not 200 km from theri capital.... Just as an example what US guarantees are worth in the end.
@@nilesbutler8638
Chapeau!
CaspianReport offers the best analyses, just amazing work, please keep on!
even though he is objective he does really sound it. he can really turn off emotional thinking whilst discussing world politics to truly analyze what both sides want.
Hybrid war to subdue the opponents through fears and economic exhaustion bullying tactics like naval blockade to tighten the noose to force Taiwan into concessions! K Goodluck our Taiwanese Brothers from your friends and Brothers Filipinos! Be strong and steadfast resilient people! Strength and Honor! K
@Chris Merck why? The Philippines is already a client state, no need for invasion.
Taiwan is part of China
Not going to lie that what the us have been doing for years. They have setup hundred of military bases in foreign countries. Ruining economies through debts and exploiting world currency to rip nations off. Not to mention starting wars for natural resources.
If you are Filipino you should now this first hand. Only recently had Philippine break free from us.
@@peterwang5272 No is not it will never be again, just like the US stopped being part of the United Kingdom, Taiwan is not part of China anymore period, doesn't matter if the CCP doesn't like it, the opinion of your people means nothing to the world.
The "si vis pacem, para bellum" strategy of Taiwan is reaching its limits and soon enough something will have to give ☹️
Taiwan should destroy any CCP ships making incursions and pretend they know nothing about it. The CCP would then up their incursions but with less ships this will cost the CCP more and Taiwan less.
@@noodlyappendage6729 That is always the plan. Taiwan has been buying tons of Harpoon anti-ship missiles and SLAM-ER, to ensure the CCP cannot cross the Taiwan Strait without bearing a huge loss.
@@borislam2664 I’m not talking about missiles. That’d seem too obvious. There must be another way to sink CCP ships without explosions. Make it out to be a kind of Bermuda Triangle. let’s say 1 CCP ship makes 20 incursions. Sinking just one ship totally knocks out China’s incursions. If Taiwan take out 50 ships China won’t be able to retaliate let alone make an incursion.
@@noodlyappendage6729 I understand but the Taiwan Strait is too narrow for any incursion to stay undetected, no matter from China side or Taiwan side. This gives huge advantage to whoever is on the defensive side since neither can launch a surprise attack.
It's actually Mainland China's rise that has kept the peace and development in that whole region.
Some additional factors to consider:
For the duration of the conflict, China will be unable to trade in and out of any of its ports north of the Taiwan Strait. No one is going to sail a merchant ship through an active combat zone.
Of particular note, the vast majority of China's oil refinery capacity and petroleum distribution network is located north of the Taiwan Strait. Essentially all of the oil delivered to ports like Shanghai and Tianjin sails past Taiwan. China's strategic oil reserve is estimated to be about three weeks' worth. The vast majority of the Chinese economy will come to a screeching halt within a few weeks of the start of any conflict.
Japan is certain to provide its full support to Taiwan. If Taiwan falls, the Japanese leadership knows that that will leave Japan unable to hold Okinawa Prefecture. Defending Taiwan is therefore equivalent to defending Japan itself.
According to US government documents that were declassified in 2019, Taiwan was only days away from becoming a nuclear power when their program was sniffed out and shut down by the US in 1988. They had completed all of the necessary processing and manufacturing except for final assembly and testing of a device. Taiwan's civilian nuclear power plants hold enough material to quickly produce several weapons.
@AG TaNGrA They can't. Physically impossible. The war we are talking about will almost completely sever their connection to the rest of the world. Globally, somewhere between 95% and 98% of all ton-miles of trade in physical goods is conducted by ship. That's due to the inherent nature of transport. Transporting goods by ship is just that much more efficient. For China, the overland transport options are especially ugly as they tend to involve either the Himalayas or Siberia, two of the absolutely most formidable geographical barriers that exist anywhere on the planet.
No doubt that severing almost all of China's trade will be painful for some. But the question is, for who?
For the USA, Chinese contributions to US imports amounted to only 2.1% of US GDP in 2019, the last year before the pandemic scrambled the globe. Losing easy access to manufacturing that amounts to 2.1% of GDP isn't nothing, but it's nowhere near catastrophic.
Furthermore, Chinese contributions to US imports are almost entirely in low level manufacturing-- final assembly, low level conversion of raw ores into metals. Low skilled stuff. That's the easiest thing there is to replace. So the loss of that 2.1% contribution won't last very long.
Finally, the US has overwhelming market power. Companies will fall over backwards to keep the US market supplied before any other. The US will suffer from shortages only when the entire rest of the globe has been emptied out. That will further reduce length of the disruption that the US feels.
The US will weather the disruption associated with cutting China out of the global system with only minimal discomfort.
Another country that will do quite well is Japan. 3.3% of the value of imports into Japan comes from China. Japan also has strong market power. Japan will obviously be hit harder than the USA, 3.3% vs 2.1% and #4 market vs the USA's #1. But the disruption won't be anywhere close to catastrophic. On the plus side, cutting China off will free up lots of energy, and Japan imports almost all of its energy. For Japan, some of the cost of the disruption from cutting China out will be recouped via lower energy prices.
A third country that will do well is India. Only 3.1% on the import column of the ledger. India has little market power, but it also is a highly self-contained economy. India has historically pursued an economic strategy of autarky, similar to China under Mao. So disruptions to global trade flows will largely pass India by. India will benefit from lower energy costs, and India is also certain to pick up some of the economic activity that will get shut out of China.
There are definitely countries that will suffer greatly from the disruption of cutting China out of the global economic system. But the US, Japan, and India will be spared from major damage.
And of course, the USA, Japan, and India are three of the countries that will be most involved in pushing back against Chinese aggression.
Great points, but nuclear materials used for civilian energetics cannot be simply put into missiles, and vice versa. In order to do so, said materials need to be either enriched or impoverished first, which is possible, yet complicated and thus unlikely to be kept in secret.
@@igorchistyakov8876 Right, but the point is that it is a lot easier to take your fuel rods into a secret underground bunker somewhere to do the enrichment than to have to start from setting up a new mining operation digging up tons and tons of rock in the middle of a war zone.
@@yopyop3241 can't but agree with that.
@@yopyop3241 thanks a lot for the informations :)
shivan always has a wise ass commen which incisively sums up the takeaway from the report at the end of each video. Love it!
Taiwan is China’s gateway to the pacific. No way we are going to avoid war.
the usa will probably be too weak to fight china in a few years as china is becoming really strong and the usa will be too busy trying to beat china economically to fight it and by that time the usa can't do shit
Take those small islands. Put hypersonic missiles on them. Get a large base in Taiwan.
@@gamers-xh3uc bs china is on the verge of having a major shitstorm. lots of the post one child policy people are dying lowering their population at a very fast rate and thus their economy. tiny protests are popping up all over china all the time lately (even if its illegal to do so) china has a water crisis in the north thus are preparing for a food crisis for a while now. also the US isn't alone in this. most NATO members have condemmed china in the past few years and even India and Australia both countries that heavily rely on china have warships already stationed around the south china sea. it might get messy like the Vietnam war but i'm 100% positive china wouldn't win unless countries suddenly pulled out of the war.
Note here for those interested: Modern Taiwanese, such as myself, increasingly dislike the term "reunification". It implies that Taiwan was once unified with the CCP's China, when it never was. Neither Mao nor his successors have ever successfully invaded Taiwan.
They Will now.
Yep. Actually the Taiwanese government is the legal government of China
@DongFeng东风 Does these other examples you've listed mean that what China is doing is ok? What relevance do they bring to the conversation?
Taiwan was never a UK colony unlike HK. Why would we all flee the island and gift wrap it to a party that has never successfully invaded or annexed us? We may as well ask you Chinese to go to the UK and give us China.
If you think that our celebrities bashing China is bad, then how do you think we should react to China sending jets into our aerospace, begging us to shoot them down? Should we be...sympathetic to you?
Almost all Chinese are brainwashed by Chinese state education, which claimed among other things that Taiwan was in abject poverty in the 70s despite having magnitudes better GDP per capita than China, or claimed that coronavirus had destroyed Taiwan's economy when in fact we were one of the best countries at preventing China from spreading the virus to our shores. It then logically follows that of course almost all Chinese support China annexing Taiwan, even if it would bring them little to no material benefit. Anyway, why on earth would the Chinese government care about popular Chinese opinion? It has never cared about democracy; indeed, it is openly hostile to it.
@DongFeng东风 We're pessimistic, but we're not stupid, and we certainly won't kowtow to terroristic demands.
Me, a 18 year old Taiwanese student watching this video:
OH CRAP
oh crap indeed. and you have conscription to look forward to.
Me who is a 17yr old american: see you on the battlefield
@@Doochos Yeah, gonna serve for a few months this summer.
@evon erfin I would say independence, but most of us just really want peace than anything else. Like only 15% want immediate independence and 5% want immediate annexation while the rest prefers the status quo.
@@electro6202 lol hope war doesn't come anytime soon.
The art of war is a good book, if you know your enemy and know yourself, you need not fight a thousand battles
What do you mean "know". "Biblical sense of know" or what? We are now MODERN now and do not fight a thousand armies. Modern nuclear bombs can kill off millions within seconds. We are now more advanced than the era of Hiroshima. Even places like India have this technology. Almost all major powers now have nuclear energy. If anything goes wrong, WE ALL DIE together.
@@hokkiengospel i think he was referring to the hybrid warfare. so if you deplete your enemy before fighting a single battle you automatically win. correct me if i'm wrong.
@@hokkiengospel stop being so emotional
This channel truly is exceptional. I try and watch every video and I always feel enlightened. Thank you so much for the content
The current status quo is in the best interest of the Philippines as well, in order to hamstring a potential invasion or economic blockade of their lands through the eastern sea board.
Also considering how the current weakness of the Philippine forces will expose a large hole in the island chain should the ROC fall.
Yeah recognising Taiwan Independence would provoke China. I think this video does a good job explaining some of the dynamics in the Taiwan-China conflict: czcams.com/video/yI0foMtF_oU/video.html&ab_channel=MyTake
I don’t understand the fear of Filipinos for China. They actually like Indonesia are for China better to be kept as allies than countries to invade.
Why are Filipinos so scared of a Chinese invasion?
The failure on our part is to blame, for one, this current and previous presidential administrations have not done enough to counter the efforts of Chinese aggression. We won the case in the Hague, but we have not solidified our defence in the South China Sea (or West Philippine Sea).
Which brings me to my second concern, our military is not self-sufficient and undeveloped. A military needs to have the capability of independent defence, but the military was not modernised until around recently (around 2014).
Basically, not only is our government stopping or standing up to it, they even pursued closer Chinese relations when they shouldn't be. The current president, Duterte has pursued such closer Chinese relationships, the guy basically made himself a puppet.
@@NotAnotherDude The only people spewing that BS are the Duterte Fanatics and Duterte himself who always presents the false dichotomy of
1. We become a doormat of china
2. If we go to war with china we'll just get decimated
when there are better options such as allying with Taiwan , Vietnam and Japan
And, a Taiwanese invasion would really hit not just the Philippines, but American interests there as a whole. If they invade Taiwan, the Chinese can now access the Pacific Ocean which the US would certainly want to avoid.
**one year later**
Given recent events, I'm curious how this video holds up in the next year or two.
This video leaves out 1 major important factor: Taiwan's semi conductor industry. US will fight to defend this/ keep it out of China's hands for sure.
The US is already forcing companies to move to the US
@@souslicer yeah, the world needs more chips and taiwan ain't making enough. so everyone else is upping their production.
@@souslicer It is very important that the US become independent in terms of production.
Yeah, the US if forcing China to develop a chip industry. Bad move.
40% of semiconductors are produced in Taiwan.
Feel terribly sorry for the Taiwanese people. What a stressful life with the enemy, literally, at its door.
Sort of like SK, but like times a million. A rowdy neighbor is always a bad thing.
India and Pakistan has this problem too
@@Brandonhayhew we're used to it
It has been like this for the last 50 years. The citizens of Taiwan feels nothing when the news broadcast another Chinese aircraft flies past the central line of Taiwan strait.
@@Brandonhayhew Nah, its not that bad.
8:28
It is worth mentioning that a majority of tanks of the ROC Armed Forces consist of Cold War tanks of US models such as the M48 and M60, which have had some modernized additions to their equipment, but in comparison to their age and capabilities, it isn't looking like they can hold out against say the Type 99. Even though the M1 Abrams could outclass the Type 99, when accounting Taiwan's terrain, the mobilization of these forces when Taiwan as is has a dysfunctional military organization, and the likelihood of Chinese aerial domination, it is hard to say how much of an effect the M1 Abrams could provide in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
As Vietnam and Afghanistan have shown, for a land war places to hide is more important than technical superiority. Taiwan has the terrain, and much of its population have military skills.
Can someone explain why would you want to occupy such land desperately if you already have big, much larger country?
Geopolitics
Caspianreport *uploads a video*
Me *quickly turns into a major general preparing for a war*
More like lining up your wallet to provide the major general weapons
A Major General is only a 2 star
“Launches hoi4”
@@bobguy6542 depends on country
@@lockheedmartin286 don't pretend like other militaries matter.
USERNAME LOCKHEED MARTIN!!
CaspianR we need a video on the current Ukraine/Russia situation. Things are ramping up. Would love your incite on it!
Great content as usual!
Freudian slip?
@@xCorvus7x ???
@@AnoFlour Instead of 'insight' you have written 'incite', which means to encourage/stir up (usually people to do some thing possibly violent or unlawful, or just be, against some one or some thing; e. g. the Nazis incited hatred of the Jews and Bolsheviki with their propaganda).
@@xCorvus7x I see. Thank you for that insight!
English is not my primary language, still learning new things everyday 😃
@@AnoFlour you're welcome, happy to help a fellow non-native speaker :)
The Japanese also thought domestic affairs would prevent the USA from invading them, they couldn't be more wrong. The thing about Western nations is, they're pretty weak at soft power but when it comes time to go hard, we go hard.
They miscalculated. The American people were very angry at the government for interfering with the Japanese mission in China without provocation but the Japanese response was too extreme and made the American people more opposed to their behavior than our government's. We successfully provoked them by using a hybrid war to make them unable to defeat the Chinese.
We miscalculated too though. We should have been on their side against China and the British. Their peacekeeping mission was moral and necessary for the prosperity of their ally the Qing Empire. We ruined the hopes and dreams of several generations of Chinese people to appease a truly worthless ally in the British Empire. Recently a neo Neville Chamberlainist successor regime in the Empire just ceded its own core territory of Hong Kong to Communist China out of irrational cowardice and sold its own subjects as slaves in a move that even Chamberlain himself would never have stooped to. Roosevelt's foreign policy advisors may well have been the dumbest people on earth as far as I'm concerned.
Sure, but it will be extremely costly. They haven't had any combat experience in decades and a tremendous amount of their military budget goes towards updating outdated equipment.
I think Taiwan is well aware of the fact they couldn't hold Kinmen and Matsu, I presume that any forces there would serve merely as a tripwire.
Communist China lets Taiwan hold Kinmen and Matsu,
because in Republic of China, therd are two procinces: Taiwan and Fujian,
as long as Roublic of China holds these two Islands, it means that the link between ROC and the Mainland is not cut,
Didnt usa sign a pact with taiwan
@@chost-059 I hope so.
@@chost-059 If I remember correctly the Taiwan Relations Act that we've used as basis of relations only covers Taiwan proper and the Penghu islands. Then there's the strategic ambiguity thing with those, Taiwan and Penghu.
If they partner with the HK Protesters they will be better
I swear if I see one more "si vis pacem, para bellum" comment
if you want Chipotle, prepare for diarrhea
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Jesus fucking chirst🇨🇳
the nazis on the soviet union we can invade noone cans top us and than the soviets fought back and annihilated germany
So you're just gonna pretend you didn't see the comment above you? Okay.
Mainland China is historical part of Taiwan.
The beginning preparations of war, the outcome of war is already decided at the beginning before the fight begins.
The shape of the Philippine Islands looks great. It looks like a huge Dinosaur.
But with a lapdog president
@@crymeaariver pero pag nagkagiyera? Lapdog pa rin? or baka sisihin mo siya kung bakit may giyera? Magsalita ka, ano nasa isip mo? Magka giyera or walang giyera? Lalaban ka ba na itak gamit mo? or aasa ka n lng sa kano? Anong pinagkaiba nun? Think carefully, diba isa ka rin lapdog kung aasa ka rin lang pala sa America?
If you look at Pakistan it looks like a duck
@@johna9503 ah geh lods
@@johna9503 eh di lapdinosaur
This video was needed, many thanks
It was great, the only thing I missed was more domestic politics aspect. This video explains the domestic politics on both sides of this conflict: czcams.com/video/yI0foMtF_oU/video.html&ab_channel=MyTake
@@drunkensailor3736 I'll check this out
The world has to know what China is thinking, too many people ignore their bullying! 🤔🤗
11:02 to 11,15. So Taiwan has to send their planes 8 times a day, on average, to chase away trespassing, bullying Chinese fighter planes. This cost Taiwan $900 million in fuel last year. Just think of the needless pollution alone. Disgusting. And China should give Tibet back to the Tibetans NOW. China must stop stealing other countries.
@@WeAreAllOneNature Who is going to stop them? The UN? China can veto any proposal put forward! It already bullies countries to cut relations with Taiwan, only a handful of countries recognise Taiwan ROC! They bully university's into banning antichina rallies and groups! What can be done? Boycott Chinese goods and services! In my opinion! Cheers for letting me rant:-)
Having been to both countries I can say it is just that: two different countries.
Would be a terrible tragedy if Taiwan fell into the hands of China.
would be a wonderful blessing if china falls into the hands of taiwan.
@@user-yu6uk2uv3z Yep
Ironic. Since Taiwan Govt has spent bzillions trying to attract Mainland PRC tourists, but PRC will not allow PRC tourists to spend so much money there. PRC cities are FAR more DEVELOPED than Taiwanese cities now. PRC cities are even more developed in certain parts than US or EU or Japanese cities. However, much of PRC is rural and still very poor and backwards. It's a RICH-POOR divide that's incomparable to that in other parts of the world. Mainland China grew rapidly but also unevenly.
@@hokkiengospel live in Tokyo for almost a decade now, straight up in metropolitan Shinjuku too and was not really wow'ed by Shanghai, the green and brown ocean water really surprised me though haha. Id rather be in a nice place like Taichung than Shanghai or Beijing tbh, no matter how fancy a city is the best thing is if the art,freedom, and nice people are there.
@@Kairuofficial How is the rent and radiation? No doubt the fruits are bigger, juicier, and better in quality than American fruits, and more put together and amazingly well-packaged... but the price?
No one would come to Taiwan's defense in case of blockade or other kinetic CCP actions? You're usually more astute than that, Caspian.
My thoughts exactly.
The rest of the World would crush CCP blockade.
Their paper navy is a joke.
Would they?
Back in the eighties the world boycotted S. Africa over apartheid, now China is carrying on a genocide and the world is doing..............nothing. There's a very good chance he's right.
@@telinoz1975
Ability is useless without the will to do something.
@@Bagledog5000 the will is there.
Just last week, the question got asked of Biden about if China invaded Taiwan.
His answer was clear.
We WILL defend them.
The World has had enough of china.
@@Bagledog5000 sadly, genocide or mass murder and oppression by nation states within a it borders has been overlooked again and again, that's true. An actual invasion of what is effectively another country, though, is an entirely different matter, especially when the country being invaded is of such strategic importance as Taiwan.
Shirvan something you failed to cover is that Taiwan’s TSMC is the world leader semiconductor producer for Apple, Nividia, etc. If that gets disrupted, the impact on chip manufacturing would be disastrous to western technology giants. Hence the US needs to prevent the takeover at least till the Arizona fab comes online in 8 years. Hence this one issue may force the West’s hand in protecting Taiwan. This would be worthy to add into this analysis.
exactly, a blockade of Taiwan would absolutely cause a war because of the global dependence upon their fabs.
TSMC produces majority of mobile (ARM) CPUs and communication ASICs. If Taiwan invasion happens, you can put money on Chinese special forces quickly moving in to secure fabs to prevent photo mask sets, process and design documents from being destroyed and to round up TSMC scientists and engineers. This move will solve China’s dependence on foreign semiconductors and disrupt West’s IT hardware supply chain, killing 2 birds with 1 stone.
Need to ask US how many soldiers and ships it would afford to sacrifice for protecting Taiwan.
If they did invade and the fabs got destroyed, then due to the impact on tech manufacturing, I’d suspect that would be the black swan event that would significantly impact the global economy- which could be why they haven’t yet done it. Maybe behind close doors they are waiting for fab capacity elsewhere online….
This is an excellent point. US willingness to go to war is largely dependent on value of strategic resources in that territory.
Long live Taiwan 🇹🇼
I do agree with you if China invades Taiwan you know who to call I was thinking what is Macau and Hong Kong just join Taiwan that will be very cool
If China invades, it's war.
China will always be a part of Taiwan. Taiwan #1
Taiwan is a part of Greater China
Anyone who says Taiwan is a country is a DPP lapdog who’s against Sun Yat Sen
Sometimes the threat of war is more effective than conducting actual war.
Like your wife?
@@hokkiengospel nope. Like your wife.
Now that the US has showed the world that they probably wont fight for its allies as shown by their retreat from Afghanistan, China could get some ideas about Taiwan.
No one in Afghanistan was really an ally
China: You me!
Taiwan: No you me!
"It is an unfortunate fact that peace can only be secured by preparing for war", tid bits like this make me love the channel. There's so much nuance to geopolitics that most people don't try and understand. And your explanations help simplify the realities of geopolitics
It’s only the simple fact. No need to be sentimental about it. I am sure the Nazis were sympathetic when they killed millions of unarmed people.
I think Russia's massive failure in Ukraine has been Taiwan's best defence in decades.
How do you generate these 3D map animation, these are sick.
They are paid by BANKS.
Im guessing he fuond two lining up images: one of sattelite image, and other of heightmap. Then got a subdivided plane in blender, added satelite img as texture and hightmap as displacement(requires cycles).
Caspian makes everyone understand in short minutes.
😻
war karo Caspian report mala socotaa
waa ka ugu shidan ee non bias ah
Waryaa
Compare 1930s Nazi Germany Vs 2020s Communist China in your next video.
If the beacons of Gondor are lit, Rohan must be ready for war.
we are literally living this story. The Armies of Mordor are gathering, the dark clouds are forming. Within our lifetime, the US, its regional allies and the West will nee to make the decision if they will ride to the defense of Minas Tirith.
Grima essentially runs the place for Saruman.
@BOGDAN IONESCU I never said savior don't put words in my mouth. just an ally that will come to the defence of Taiwan when Mordor invades lol. what country are you from.
@@rms1034 lol how China is Mordor and not US who literally puts countries into chaos just to get profit either economical or geopolitical?
I would hope the Taiwanese are learning courage and resolve from the Ukrainians these days
Just saying for you Taiwan is world largest semiconductor producer, if Taiwan got war with China, the entire world electronics price will be skyrocketing
Well, when Winnie the Poo sees a jar of honey ...he's uh, well... he's gonna get it.
It could be poisoned honey
@@capricorn839 and the bees don't give it up without a fight either way.
If you are talking about USA than yes. They have been building military bases all around the world (number in the hundreds). Now they wish to build one in Taiwan. No wonder China’s been taking actions In recent years. Btw us has been colluding with Taiwanese military ever since 1979.
@@TMsonjakopp7006 If Taiwan wants the US to build a base there and they allow it, then it's in their right to do so, US doesn't force anyone to build bases, they ask and governments agree to it, stop spreading fake propaganda trying to make the US as the bad guy.
@@albertomurilloocallaghan2163 China doesn’t force anyone to build the belt and road (which is a railroad that connect all middle eastern nations and Africa not only that they are the once’s paying for it free of interest (for 30 years). The government of the other nations agreed because it would benefit all nations involved so than why is US trying to interfere?
This video reminds me of one of my favorite quotes I picked up during my service: no plan survives first contact with the enemy. Meaning if we do see an attack in the near future, it won‘t be anything like we have immagined
'Man can plan all he wants, but it is God who decides'
It will be a grand and humiliating failure to either china or the us.
@Innocent Bystander actually that’s exactly what everyone expected, it’s HOW they did it that fucked everyone.
@@BlinkShadow damn, so god was a nazi for the first few years of WW2 then. Wtf god
@@alinobunaga It could also be a grand and humiliating failure for both sides, as World War I was.
That’s a very good analysis, thank you
As the song goes : "Two ways to view the world brought Europe down in flames. Two ways to rule!"
HAS MAN GONE INSANE
Wow, I knew nothing about those taiwanese islands near Chinas shores. That changes things quite a bit.
Oleksii Kolesnikov I know what you mean. But technically speaking, those are "Chinese" islands, including the island of Taiwan. Civil war hasnt technically ended yet, and Taiwan, officially called Republic of CHINA, claims to be the legitimate ruler of ALL of China including the mainland. The even once sat in the UN representing the country called China.
and they also belongs to Fujian Province not Taiwan province even in Republic of China(Taiwan)
they fought many times on Kingmen islands, in 1949 Oct, the nationalists stopped the communists on the island killing and caputaring 10k. They bombard each other until 1979.
If I was Taiwan, I'd lease all the territories outside the island that couldn't be protected to the United States, creating military bases right at China's doorstep.
@@sobitasadullah4517 And that my friend, is how you start ww3...Those islands are within Chinas territorial waters...
"too preoccupied at home"
Me: *Remembers how US literally invade and took back South Korea when Kim Ill Sung think that US wouldn't bother to intervene*
Edit: Great we got people who support North Korea. Hey maybe ask South Koreans how they felt about it, 바보!
The overall correlation of power, is much less unfavourable. In fact within the first island chain the correlation of conventional power post 2015 is favourable and gets more so every year.
RoK is a state, with a UN seat and recognised as a country. Republic of China which is the self name of what is called taiwan has no seat in the general assembly and generally not recognised as a country. Dejure and still for now de facto the offical geo political posture of what is "taiwan", is that it considers itself a intergal part of China. Check goggle up its offical self "taiwan"consitution.
The PLAN for now has not structured its naval forces for a short range naval amphibious invasion of significance. For the interim the PLAN appears to be incapable of breaking a remote extentend, as opposed to a close blockade of China SLOC by the USN. It also is incapable for now and the mid term, of delivering meaingful conventional strikes on either the American West or East coast.
Its Mine sweeping, Air to Air refueling capacity and ASW capability is still limited in capability and capacity. As and when all defencies, are rectified as to aquisition of capabilities especially the capacity to break a extend blockade by the USN and to deploy in pre crsis posture a meainful combat force structure that could, hit both the west and east coast of the American mainland with some degree of significant "non ballastic" conventional strike capacity it probably won't consider naval landings on the main island of taiwan unless serious red lines are crossed.
It also currently have very limited naval nuclear warfighting capacity and its current fleet of SSN is way too small and still somewhat too noisy for blue water operations, beyond the noisy coastal waters of of the first island chain. The SSBN fleet while conferring some dyad capability is still too limited and have very limited surivability against a suprise and or grinding conventional counter force takedown. 6 somewhat viable, through of uncertain/not demonstrated patrol reliability SSBN and with its current range limited SLBMs is not adequate.
The strategic correlation of China strategic nuclear long range delivery systems, is wholly inadequate to prevent unilateral hostile nuclear strikes against its heartlands if a strategic nuclear response calclus were included in the calculation, given adversary demonstrated growing ABM naval and land base systems numbers and capabilities. Current warheads numbers and range limited delivery systems might be incapable in a sustained campaign of suriving in numbers that can reasonably, assure maintenance of MAD posture and or adversary resort to nuclear warfighting.
However taiwan/ROC is only one not "fortified" Presidential electoral cycle or one expansive M4A bill or one AOC class New green new deal passing reconcilation or a loss of confidence in the dollar reserve status away from losing it bargaining strenght to come to some less amicable agreement with China.
Current growth of PLAN/China strategic nuclear capabilities and force structures has not yet close the gap between current and projected USN/USAF where it can realistically deter it from intervening if strong American political will be there. It much more then enough to dissuade taiwan from disestablishing its own original consitution.
Took back? Or just invaded and colonised
@@Mariamia-ev2qo I don't like to say this but nearly all South Koreans are at least eating well or readily have acess to food, have reliable and plentiful electricity, excellent health care and good life expectancies. Also there are defintely not quite running dogs of the USA like Japan. They were defacto a US appendage, but by mid 90s they were certainly not US puppets even if they did bend quite occassionally to US pressure.
Also the USA being there prevents the South Korean state from going nuclear. Through the South Koreans have contigency plans for doing so if necessary. Some of their indigneous South Korean weapons systems have baked in capacity to readily accomodate South Korean nuclear weapons should they feel the need for it and if it should become available. I know i follow their conventional weapon systems developments and designs. They can be very easily repurpose to launch nukes.
No US military presence, will within 2 years or less mean a nuclear armed South Korea.
@@Mariamia-ev2qo look up the definition of "colonised"
@@Mariamia-ev2qo stupid troll.
We love taiwan 🇹🇼
Putin could have learned a lot of lessons from this video without proving everything said in this video right.
Are you going to do an episode of the Russian buildup along Ukrainian border in recent days? I think that needs to be talked about.
Dont worry, it'll make the news once more of Ukraine mysteriously explodes and the border moves further west, all after Russian troops happen to be on vacation... with their tanks.
@@arthas640 my car was broken and I wanted to go to kiev so the commander let me take an apc un this isn’t an invasion
Friend it’s just another excercise. NATO does way worse on their border. There’s nothing to be afraid of
@@TeamASGTS I think it’s more posturing than an exercise. Especially after the video he put out about it. I’m not afraid of it lol it’s just that western media is unreliable so I’d like to have unbiased info on what’s going on in the region.
For once I see a Caspian Report title where I can think "hah! Way ahead of you baby, Ive been saying this for years"
Many of us have. And yet HK still fell. And I fear Taiwan will too. What a shitty future, and shitty individual fate to say things nobody listens too, and be right about them. If it was something petty you could say I told you so and get that cheap ego boost, but instead it’s watching a volcano go and everyone you tried to warn suffer for no good reason, crying out for help, but you can’t do shit because it’s already too late.
@@fromthefire4176 Hong Kong was set to be fully integrated back into China by 2047. Your comment makes no sense.
@@jadapinkett1656 How is what you said relevant?
@@jadapinkett1656 They said HK "fell", not invaded. It's true tho because all the pro-democracy politicains in HK are gone now. Some arrested or just gone. Do some research before commenting bro
kinda weird how the virus spread so much and now china is fine. Kinda weird how it conveniently stopped the HK protests
Wow----- that was quite balanced and accurate
You should also consider the health of President Xi. The stress of leading his troops will put a strain on his heart. If he had difficulty in giving a speech in the recent Bric meeting…you can bet he will be in great stress in making strategic decisions.
This was one of the best videos or articles I have seen on this topic in the past 2 years. Very very well done indeed.
I'm am going to call that Dongsha/Pratas Island is going to be the test case for the PRC. The island will be annexed by the PLAN's Marines, both to test the reaction by Taiwan and the US, and to test the readiness of their 1st and 2nd Marine Bde. and Special Ops Bde. (Maybe + the 1st and 125th Amphibious Bde.)
It would be funny if the retaliation would be maximized to the point of attrition.
Funny thing is, I remember recently someone in r/geopolitics saying China and Russia would coordinate a attack on Ukraine and Dongsha at the same time to prevent the US from focusing on one of them.
@@boogaloo2.017 Nobody cares about Ukraine. It would be prudent for a concentrative strike on China instead. Hell we may even ally with the Russians again.
Will cause the activitation of the mutual defense treaty with the US, and the allies will now have a legit reason to shoot back
Not according to international law, over 180+ countries adhere to the one China policy. ROC or PRC are both claimants to the islands, you cannot invade what most countries recognize as your own sovereign territories.
Amazing report. How do you find the information for these reports? ℹ️ All open source?
You mean how much weapons could MIC sell to Taiwan