5 Reasons Why China Won't Invade Taiwan
Vložit
- čas přidán 7. 06. 2024
- The tension between China and Taiwan has been increasingly heightening for the past decade. Increasingly more frequent Chinese navy exercises off the coast of Taiwan and incursion on Taiwanese Air Identification Defense Zone by PLA's jets have buttressed the perception of an imminent Chinese invasion of the island. As clearly explained by @BattleOrder the PLAN is more than capable of implementing such a military operation. But is that really the case? In this video, we argue that China has more reason to deter such actions, than proceeding with an actual Invasion against Taiwan.
Table of Content:
00:00 Taiwan-China Relationship
04:27 Taiwan's Strategic Value
08:46 First Reason: President Xi's Political Interests
10:25 Difficult Military Operation
12:16 Unfavourable International Environment for China
13:28 Taiwan's Defence Network
15:40 Taiwan's Economy and Supply Chains
▀▀▀
Many thanks to Jasper, J.J. Liu, Edward, and Richard for their great help!
Narration by Jasper: Discord (Jasper'sVoice2734) and CZcams channel ( / @dayfallva9303 )
Script editing by Edward King Grey and J.J. Liu ( / jjliu112 )
Music: Magnetic by CO.AG • Magnetic - Documen...
▀▀▀▀▀▀
If you liked this video, please consider subscribing and supporting the channel growth! / kamome163
For inquiries: sekishouproduction@gmail.com
Check my previous videos:
Australia's Maritime Strategy: • Australia Maritime Str...
Strategic Importance of Afghanistan: • Why is Afghanistan so ...
The Malacca Dilemma: • China's weakness: the ...
▀▀▀▀▀
Bibliography
[1] www.xinhuanet.com/english/spec...
[2] www.theguardian.com/world/201...
[3] kula.geol.wwu.edu/rjmitch/coas...
[4] www.globaltimes.cn/content/70...
[5]Post-war Japan As a Sea Power: Imperial Legacy, Wartime Experience and the Making of a Navy, 2015, Alessio Palatano
[6]edition.cnn.com/2021/10/23/as...
[7]www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-5...
[8]www.reuters.com/world/china/c...
[9] www.theguardian.com/world/202...
[10] www.heritage.org/defense/comm...
[11] www.nap.edu/read/18832/chapter/5
[12]www.forbes.com/sites/timdaiss...
[13] data.worldbank.org/indicator/...
[14]www.taiwan.gov.tw/content_6.php
[15]www.economist.com/leaders/202...
[16]www.reuters.com/world/china/t...
I liked the use of map rotations to demonstrate the security perspective from a mainland china view. Great video.
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
czcams.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/video.html
I also liked the slowly rotating view for that same effect!
I get it, but it's giving me.a headache.
I hated the rotating map. It detracted from the story.
50 Reasons Why China always wants to Invade Taiwan.
Breaking up China is good for the world.
TO divide China (PRC) into 5 or more countries, human societies can become peaceful and happy.
More and more Chinese who live in Democratic Countries Comprehend the opinion and support it.
The Communist Party of China is the biggest trouble maker on the earth.
IF China is divided into 5 or more countries, the new governments need good laws to hold the population, which makes the human right of the Chinese go up.
I've learned more here in 18 minutes than by watching 4 years worth of Taiwanese news. Amazingly well produced content😌
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
czcams.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/video.html
you
Wow its Ku!!!!!
This video’s incorrect in many ways, just in the first 3 minutes! like saying Taiwan “self-declared Republic of China”, and “declared succession”, both of which are factually incorrect. Mistake #1: The Republic of China (ROC) was declared on mainland China in 1911 by the Kuomintang regime when it overthrew the Qing Dynasty. The connection of Taiwan to ROC is due to World War II when the Allies including ROC won over Japan, and made Japan give up Taiwan, which it legitimately received through the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki when Japan won a war against Qing China. In 1945, when Taiwan was “returned” or “retrocessed” to the then “China” (meaning the ROC), the legitimacy of this action in international law is still disputed, and is a basis of the supporters of “Taiwan Independence”, disputed because the ROC unilaterally declared that the previous Treaty of Shimonoseki was to be void because Qing China signed it under force. However, you know you cannot cancel a treaty or contract just because you said you were “forced”. When you lose a war you were made to give up something. It’s like losing a bet. Then you had to pay up. You don’t say, 50 years later, you have another situation when you win over the other person on a totally different issue, then declare, without checking with the other person, the thing you lost and signed over to him, and just say oh it’s mine again, right?
Number 2 mistake: “declared succession “. First of all “succession” is a wrong word. The correct vocabulary is “secession”. Taiwan NEVER declared secession from “China”, either the ROC or the PRC (People’s Republic of China, the one people now think of as *China”). The fact is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) declared the establishment of PRC on mainland China in Oct. 1949, which in itself is the secession of mainland China from the ROC, which at the time included mainland and Taiwan. So it is the CCP who seceded mainland China from ROC, so mainland China are the actual “rebel provinces”, rather than Taiwan, and the CCP are the rebels who started the revolution that broke apart what they now claim as the “holy and inseparable territory of China” which must be kept whole, when they’re the one who held the knife so to speak… 😂
@@DAwuVlog haha I didn't notice it's Ku, until someone like my message.
Thanks for putting Bibliography down in the description section!
It's good that you provide sources of the information you gave during the video.
Please keep up the great work! Your videos are really informative and give me a perspective I didn't think of before.
Quite superb. I am a Retired USAF Colonel (O-6) and this is the most cogent and thorough briefing on this subject I have seen on social media. It should be required viewing. Kudos to you.
Thank you so much, John! I really do appreciate it.
@@Kamome163hy did you censor me?
Afraid of free speech from real intellectuals (double PhD program)?
Or do you prefer CCP repression to the marketplace of ideas. Read Mill’s “On Liberty”.
You've got 2 moms
Yea, this is one of the better explanations for sure
You overlook one critical factor;
War never is logical.
- WW1 was completely irrational.
- It made no sense for Hitler to try to take all Europe and Russia.
- Japan declaring war on USA was crazy.
- It made no sense for Argentina & Britain to fight over Falklands.
Etc, etc.
But it all happened.
WW3 will be rational.
War will never be logical it just requires a crazy leader with an unprecedented power in his country.
@@essardaudinett6934 nope, when it comes to war. Playing unfair is just another strategy that could pull a victory.
Take my like, but going forward I pray that you are wrong.
The second reason is invalid,if US place a blockade,the west would unnecessarily suffer more than China and in fact China would have Russia supplying them oil natural gas etc to china
China has a rock solid relation with Russia why not mention that?
Btw IS is selling the same outdated weapons to Taiwan which they have been selling to Ukraine,and these are the Same US troops which failed in Afghanistan south veitnam etc
Nobody is going to defend Taiwan
Btw the only nation in the region that will go against China is japan and that’s only because of thier historical rivalry with China,South Korea already rejected quad and has refused to go against China,Australia’s nuclear submarine will take more than a decade of make
Can you imagine india going all the way to Taiwan to defend them 🤣🤣😂
When China takes over Taiwan,they will also takeover thier semiconductor industry so even the last point is invalid
Really interesting take on the Situation.
Keep on going! Time will Reward you
Nice Report with stunning Graphics. Thank you very much!!
The editing is brilliant, as always, from Kamome :)
🥹 Thank you so much, Cole!
One of the best videos on this matter! The graphics & narration were top notch! Great Job & Thank you!
Thank you so much Felix!
@@Kamome163 bro hello I am a very big fan of yours can you tell me how did you grow your channel within 6 videos that is amazing man. I have a you tube channel but for last 1 year since I have started i do not have any a lot of views
If you can tell me how you start getting views so early in the start if your channel that would be a great help. Do you use Google ads also
+1 subscriber, this is the kind of quality that is just hard to turn down. I look forward to catching up to more of these videos. Keep making them as you make them, this is great.
Thank you so much!🙇♂️
Outstanding video! It's worth every second! Thank you
Awesome analysis n commentary of the Taiwan - China global situation n the related countries impacted by them. Kudos. New subscriber because of this vid. Anticipating ur next one. Peace
This was a great summary of the diplomatic, economic and military factors that are continually at play when the issue of Taiwan and China are discussed.
Thank you, Ned!
China will just put on a display of milltary exercise and go back to the mainland of China.This is a time of weak leadership in China.Nancy has proved that.But we must get ready for next leader of China.He maybe a very strong leader.
Interesting… let’s hope that reason holds sway. The zeitgeist in 1913 was that the modern European countries were so economically reliant on each other that a war was unthinkable…
We need to think if Xi is as insane as Hitler, also, Nazi germany had allies, real allies.
@@FidoZip1988 You're thinking about the wrong World War.
@@josebenardi1554 The analogy applies; the ChiCom regime has only one truly reliable ally, that being the NK regime. Russia, Pakistan, Iran may not answer a call from the ChiComs should war break out in E. Asia.
@@FidoZip1988 Hitler had Germany under autarchy, thus keeping them from being crippled by sanctions during wars. When China is so reliant on its export economy, it is completely impossible for them to sustain a war without a perpetual war economy
@@moonshinei I reaaally hope they can't find another way around that problem, but mfs smart.
Great content keep em coming.
A very well laid out analysis of the situation indeed.
Excellent video! Most viewers of mainstream media lack the historical perspective which is very important.
Thank you so much, JRT!
Mainstream media = pre planned propaganda PPP
I’ve only recently discovered this channel and it has rapidly become my favorite on CZcams. The content, including the maps and clear and concise verbiage are outstanding. I plan to go through all the videos available and, in most cases, multiple times (I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed). I can’t express adequately, in words alone, how much I appreciate what you’re doing.
agree, i think ww3 wil happen in my life
No, it is not outstanding. It is just middling. It is replete with mistakes and starts with them right on. So many in fact that I would not want to list them here. Possibly you are awed because you are comparing what you heard to what you know, which is a bit of something against nothing. From that perspective it would look outstanding yes, however not otherwise. Pro Chinese Party sympathisers would love how this analysis starts. Unfortunately for them, the history is different than portrayed by this video. Which is why, such videos are never a serious substitute for a serious education.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 please, name us some examples
@@emanuelgaldes3515 Agreed. It would take several videos to set this video straight. Very broadly speaking, it's essentially correct but ignores certain facts which drastically change the conclusion.
Wow, just saw your comment, and thank you so much Stephen! I hope you’re still watching the videos on the channel and if you do, if you have any feedback!
Very well thought out
I learned a little history and logistics .
Good video , I subscribed !
Great vidioe and very good points, im looking forward for more content like this in the future👍
Very informative and helps me better understand the stalemate (or status quo) between China and Taiwan.
There is no stalemate....there are 2 million Taiwanese, some entire three generation families living in mainland China. Your choice of word is ludicrous.
Thank you for the thoughtful and reassuring analysis.
Extremely interesting and informative
Well made video! After living in Taiwan for 11 years and observing and researching the situation, I think this video is quite accurate and well thought out!
China is angry. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
czcams.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/video.html
Thank you so much Pauli!
@@Kamome163 while very accurate, I have to disagree with your assessment. Your assessment is based on mostly on economic reasons. There is nothing to say China will not endure it in order to regain taiwan. I'm surprised you didn't include the porcupine strategy that Taiwan may adopt. If taiwan goes down, the entire east coast of China will be destroyed as well. That seems more effective at giving China a second thought.
@@duyle-ej6ty using the most minimum resource to gain maximum outcome ... economically invasion instead of military
@@eliteparkingmanagement9795 hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Look at ukraine.
Sound analysis. Agree too with the comments below about the use of graphics to show perspectives from differing national viewpoints; the world often looks different when sitting 'in the other person's chair'. Really enjoyed your presentation and thought it a very useful contribution to current security debate.
KUDOS KAMONE!!! KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!!
Thank you so much🥺!
Very educated and informed. Look at the current political and economic climate between China and Taiwan. I enjoyed this video immensely.
Best coverage of the ROC/PRC relational and security issues I've seen anywhere. Nicely done. 👍
Superb animations. Bravo from Paris France!!!
@Hello Jean how are you doing?
Really good graphics and editing
Facts without rhetoric. Subbed.
Another great video! I loved the parts of the video when you’d mention the US, pan out the map view and show little lines going out from the US to various countries and then outlining those countries. Very cool and pleasing aesthetic!
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
czcams.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/video.html
The visual design of this video was awesome
@Gregory Jones Iraq in 1991 was one of the largest armies in the world and the coalition (with the US being the forefront) stomped them in 2 weeks.
@Gregory Jones North Korea was the aggressor and it was stopped by UN forces, not just “Yankees” and thanks to their united efforts, South Korea still exists and North Korean efforts to rule all of Korea were ended
what the fuck is your Profile picture？！
Keep up the quality man, this is the sort of quality that not many can make and I hope to see you reach the subcount level of CaspianReport eventually!
CaspianReport is ok but lacks in quality and scratches the surface of issues like the latest on Kosovo/Albania unification. James Ker-Lindsay’s channel he did the same video months ago and actually dug into the issue quicker and deeper from multiple angles and went into the constitution of Kosovo etc. Kamome does a way better job than CaspianReport and actually cites his reference material which is great for looking up on our own for us to dig further if we want.
@@dainomite :)
@@dainomite Compare 1930s Nazi Germany Vs 2020s Communist China IN YOUR NEXT VIDEO Project before it's too late
@素食吉祥净心净土 talk is cheap
台湾大部分人是南岛人血统。但是，台湾岛是属于中国的。太平洋没有加盖，喜欢美国的，可以游泳去。非我族类其心必异。
Well done 👍 Your videos are very good. Thank you 🙏
Thank you so much!
Excellent explanation, thanks much
Applauses, this gotta be one of the most balanced, in-depth videos about the intricate China-Taiwan situations. Bravo
Thank you so much Andreas!
I tend to watch CZcams in order to unwind and turn off the brain mostly.. This is quality content, well presented, thanks for the thought provoking take on the current situation.
現在才看到這部影片
感謝分析台海情勢！
Thanks so much for this valuable information. Very well explained.
Thank you too for the kind comment🥹
Wow, history as I've known suddenly makes sense after 40 yrs! I'm a Filipino-Chinese presently in Taiwan. I've always heard about the strategic value of the Far East including Taiwan and the Philippines, particularly in the maritime interests of eastern and the western powers, but I never really understood it all until this video. This was very well put together and narrated, with great visuals that helped in understanding what was said. For instance, geography and topography in terms of island positions, proximity and depth of intervening water bodies were very clear; and visual perspectives shifted based on the country being referenced e.g. China (N-->S), Taiwan, US (E-->W). I really appreciate this!
You should really get out of taiwan my guy, like as soon as possible
@@odinto1 Maritime is about to be over when US is driven out of the main continent. With more advanced land transportation being developed, it will benefit the entire continent especially the vast area in the middle Asia. China, Russia, Iran, Arab world and Europe will be the bedrocks for the renaissance of the main continent.
And, you just now realized this. Better get educated.
@@yijiaoqiu1243fever dream. China already made a huge mistake forcing Japan out of their nonaggression stance. The Japanese will make an inscrutable enemy
@@jonasbarbury4013 Do you have any knowledge of history between China and Japan? If Japan dares to harm China once again, what do you think will happen? You guys have no basic understanding of countries that you "don't like". Russia has been repeated invaded by the west since Rome time. You still believe that the pressure from the west will bend the Russian? Similarly, if west think Japan can be a good enemy of China because of its industry, please, think again.
Your content is very well made and thougth through. This channel deserves a lot more subscriptions!
Very enlightening.
Informative and Objective
great video! just subbed and looking forward to more
Wow! That means a lot, Thank you so much RedTeam!! Really appreciate that! BTW I really enjoy your videos on GoT! 🙌
@@Kamome163 China is a land grab opportunist. Thus, she is constantly sensing and detecting any weakness in her opponents to make her move. Land grab in South China Sea would never happen if Barack Obama showed signs of strength in foreign policy. Similarly, Crimea could not fall to Putin's hands if Barack Obama were Ronald Reagan. Oh by the way, Australia could be like Tibet next when the opportunity presents itself. Therefore, the Aussies should never let their guard down.
@@lahy1060 Look at the map, see where the harbours are, and think again about Crimea.
@@vsiegel Volker, look at China's aging group of military-age men, look at the map, and think again about Chinese ambitions. La Hy is absolutely correct.
@@patriciawilliams1232 I think I do not understand the Chinese situation. I see that it was ambiguous, my point was only about Putin and his potential relation to Reagan. I did not mean to imply something about China, sorry.
Oh, and I loved your citations in real time throughout the video; backing up one's words is not a popular style on most CZcams channels! Great job.
Thank you, David!
Truly the best info😎👍
Thank you Billy!🥹
Very interesting and informative
Kudos for making the best video made by westerner I've seen on this topic! No political bs, no propaganda, not opinionated, just facts and logical\objective analysis.
the best propaganda works because you think its not
Being a westerner or not doesn’t matter. When you properly educate yourself on an issue your background doesn’t matter
All of this can be found on wikipedia. Or is it propaganda too
Exactly! I’ve seen too many biased and twisted videos :(
@@Osmanthus839 How to know which is biased and which isn't? This was one based view for sure, I have no backdoor to usa-china relations so how to really know. But people usually search web just to support their confirmation & bandwagon effect biases or algos do it for them without their knowledge. I could think of several reasons why USA *could* sacrifice Taiwan in larger game just to hold on of their power a bit longer. But sure, there are plenty of reasons as of now why china shouldn't do it as of now.
The video starts out with an error re Formosa (Taiwan). It had been a Japanese colony, by treaty, since the end of the first Sino-Japanese war in 1895. It remained under Japanese control throughout WWII. The US chose to bypass Formosa rather than trying to invade it. Your statement that it fought alongside the allies against Japan during the war are incorrect. Over 200,000 Chinese and aboriginals joined the Japanese military.
those Chinese were traitors, and deserved to be shot. China will reclaim Taiwan in due time. It's an inevitability. Mostly likely via economic means, if not that military invasion. Taiwan is not of core strategic interest to the states. It is however a national interest for 1.4 billion Chinese. Even those who live over seas outside of china. There is no stopping china on this. When faced with existential threats, populations will suffer greatly to endure an outcome of eventual victory. Taiwan is one of those for the Chinese. Hence china has demonstrated Enormous patience when it came to reunification. China waited 100 years for the Hong Kong treaty to expire before taking over. it "honored" colonial unfair treaties that were signed before the CCP even was a thing. Hong Kong was ceded for 150 years. Taiwan has only been 70 years. so there is plenty of time.
I second what you say. Some young taiwanese were conscripted into the Japanese military during the war. Because of this , some couldn't return to their own country after the war because they had fought for the then enemy. A very complicated situation where families were torn apart simply because the men did their duty.
Very well presented.
Only three minutes in but it’s clear already, this is an excellent video.
An excellent, well-presented, well-thought-out video. First rate.
This channel is going to blow up. Little did I know I've heard your voice before in the Cowboy Bepop abridged clip lol going from that to this is quite the step up and the script writers are doing a great job as well. Keep up the good content guys.
i guess this video's channel is a comedy
The Cowboy Bepop clip is our narrator's hidden gem!❤️ Thank you for the support, Ethan!
@@sinoroman 😅
Thank you!
Anyway I like the way you express your ideas
Interesting to see the parallels between this cold war and the last one. Firm commitment on one side is seen as borderline aggression on the other.
Great comment!
That's slap-bang, what international relations are about. There are multiple angles from where to look at a topic. What for one part is an advantage for someone else is a weakness. IMO we are more used to hearing or seeing only one side of the story.
Thank you. I learned a lot! I hadn't understood the strategic importance of Taiwan to both the U.S. and China. I wish newscasts on TV would provide this type of understanding.
Wow that's awesome I must say
This is probably the most sensible analysis ever presented on CZcams.
So the Tiawan Straits are 100 miles wide with strong currents and tides.
I have heard it said that there is a time window , in the fall, where sea conditions are suitable for a landing craft operation.
What is this time window? Is it the month of November?
Thanks for all you do.
Great video, and I agree with your analysis. The assumption made is: people act rationally. I hope people do.
Thank you LB! Let's hope!
@@Kamome163 me again .
I know from your previous videos what your IQ level is at , so I will make it short and simple to accomodate your intellect :
WE CHINESE WILL GO NUCLEAR AND WILL GO WORLD WAR THREE over taiwan island. you can lie what you like and con who you like , but make sure you have the guts to come try us when our forces retake taiwan island. TALK IS CHEAP ！
@@tantan2132 Beijing have been talking loudly all this time, your point?? IT'S ALL HOT AIR!! 說的比唱的好聽！！
@@tantan2132 - Hello, Wolf Warrior, I'll see your paltry 350 warheads with my countries 5,550 warheads. You still wanna brag about "going nuclear" over Taiwan? Nukes are only good as a deterrent for war dingus, if you you use them offensively, the rest of the world WILL gang up on you and glass your whole country, hell, I bet the US could even get Russia to lob a few your way. Read a book on international relations or something before you start spewing your BS nationalistic rhetoric on the internet.
@@tantan2132 China have stated that they will never use nuclear weapons unless nuked first. So either you are wrong or your government lies.
Great video. Been following the region for a very long time. Your video brings a very good approach and angle to the situation. Don't usually hear about the national security side of the issue.
Thank you so much, Mundashie!
Your good very clear narrator 👍🏾
Excellently Informative Presentation. May Clearer Minds Prevail For The Good & Welfare Of Both Parties As Cultural Ties Are In Serious Danger For Survivability.
Great video. I liked how you talked about economic ties between the two countries I haven't seen anyone bring that up
… there is not a country named Taiwan
No country called taiwan, read history, chinese civil war is not ended yet.
@Gregory Jones 你猜猜至中國對外貿易進口最大的是什麼? 芯片，那麼誰有最好的芯片製造? ...所以你一定沒有真正搞懂。
@Gregory Jones 芯片行業贏家通吃,目前中國仍然沒有實現芯片獨立,那麼他就必須依靠台積電, 這無關它的意願；然候台積電必然會與美國合作，因為這涉及芯片的技術、設備等核心問題,美國在這中間有主導地位而中國並沒有,不然中國不會因美國的芯片制裁而束手無策。
Thank you for a brilliantly explained background !!
Let us hope your optimistic predictions on future development will be confirmed - no PCR invasion of Taiwan.
Regards from Jens, Oslo
China has India in their flang, if china invade, India will move in to kick their ass
That would be PRC (Peoples Republic of China.)
just that the island reunifies with the mainland without any invasion. that is a better scenario
@@thangvictor1184 so taiwan not goiing to fight, i going to take time, sure India wil kick china ass
What a classic! Well done people.
Very interesting information to all surrounding neighborring countries.
Having recently travelled around all of Taiwan, I can’t see how China could successful invade such a heavily populated west coast without it killing millions of people, many who have relatives in China. It would also have to be extremely repressive so as to reduce it being subject to urban guerrilla warfare on a constant basis.
Not to mention the international ramifications as mentioned. No, it will try to corrode from within and play the long game and hope for international resistance to waiver.
Yes. China is very patient and will play the long game. It is not in China’s interests to invade Taiwan at this stage. By delaying an attack it increases its military strength and perhaps as you say hopes international resistance will waiver. Already the west has fallen into the trap of believing its own propaganda that all the countries in the area will pile in against China believing that China is hated by everyone. The west doesn’t understand the Asian mind. The disputes over the islands for instance have been going on for decades. Singapore, Sth Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Phillipines have China as their main trading partner that doesn’t sound like hatred. Sth Korea and Singapore have already said they wont go to war against China. If Sth Korea were to go against China and Nth Korea came in with China, sth Korea runs the risk of being wiped out by its northern nuclear armed neighbour and how long would it take to disable Singapore?
那就开sha戒好了
That’s the problem, communist countries have no problem killing innocent people when it comes to war, if US killed a bunch of innocent people during a war with China then alot of people in the US and all over the world would be angry, but if China did the same they would most likely they won’t get the same backlash, that is why going to war with even NK is risky because Kim will easily kill innocent lives by bombing cities like Seoul
@@MS-ql8ek Did China kill more people or USA in the past 50 years? Hahaha
@@brianngf2360 maybe yes and no because China doesn't report real numbers, I went to college with alot of students from china and even they didn't even know about the great leap forward or the massacre so yea I can't give you a legitimate answer
I think it ultimately comes down to the state of the economy. As long as China’s economy remains stable or growing, the risks of war far exceed its benefits
I think it’s the opposite. China’s economy will fall apart when the demographic crisis hits. When this happens, it will be impossible for China to support a war. They can’t even heat their homes without Australian coal. They can’t afford to go to war when their economy is on the way down.
Bullshit lmao
@@Zei33 Agreed. Unless the top brass of the CCP are a bunch of lunatics, they wont support any kind of military campaign against Taiwan. Even US got sick of dumping their money in the Mideast eventually, and they were fighting guerilla fighters.
ITT: Assuming the CCP aren't lunatics, not knowing that internal struggles promote war as a way to vent discontent by uniting the people against a common external enemy, and not knowing that China's economy will collapse, sinking the global economy.
China and ccp developing economy to supply war by any methods is obviously
I hope you are right with your analysis.
Very good information anyway!
Best analysis about the current situation.
I am from Taiwan. This video is really good. It takes a deep understanding of Taiwan to make it. Thank you for sharing Taiwan
如果放任台灣獨立，台獨勢力崛起，台灣必定成為被美國控制的國家，美軍必定會進駐台灣，並申稱要讓台灣加入北約，在台灣沿海部署北約軍事基地，以及長程飛彈，而台灣就 100% 走上烏克蘭之路，這是美國對抗敵人慣用的手段。別忘了當初「蘇聯」要在古巴部署飛彈，美國就威脅要出兵，還聲稱會直接動用核武，把古巴給打下來，史稱「古巴飛彈危機」，人類最接近「核子世界末日」的一天。後來是美國透過外交手段，蘇聯最終放棄部屬飛彈，危機才解除。你可以很清楚的看到，美國自己都忍受不了的事情，卻一直對自己的敵人，做相同的事。
@@user-zn5tn9br3b difference is, the majority of Taiwan wants to stay independent from China. Of course the US will take advantage of that seeing that it depends on Taiwan for trade. Doesn’t mean that it’s nefarious. With Cuba the political and societal climate was different than that of Taiwan and it’s history. If Taiwan wants help then the US is going to oblige. Perhaps the Chinese government should stop trying to take what doesn’t want to be took. If they want independence and their way of life than let them have it. Either way if this war breaks out all sides will carry tremendous losses and the world economy and the people of this earth will suffer.
What a brilliantly made and produced video. Damn i am so glad i clicked on this and learned in 18 minutes what i could not understand through other media means. You explained it so clearly, so calming, i give 100% on how you produced it - and very accurate i would imagine too
Great report
Well done !!
8:33 While the whole video is mostly neutral, why when China containment by the US is said like a universal naturality while China's fear of "US collusion" is marked with open and close apostrophes in the subtitles?
Especially when you look at the map again and again, why does this has something to do with the US? Where the FK is US? Why are people okay with the US military expansion, which stretched all the way across the pacific ocean, but not okay with China expending its defence line in front of China's gates?
A few numbers:
At its narrowest point, the English Channel is 21 miles wide. It can be crossed by a strong swimmer. The Strait of Taiwan is about 100 miles wide. Currents and tides make navigation difficult.
On D-Day, the Allied fleet consisted of 6,939 vessels. The Chinese navy currently amounts to 355 vessels, most of them coast guard cutters and patrol boats.
The German defenders in Normandy numbered some 40,000, many poorly trained and motivated foreigners. The Taiwanese army includes 190,000 professionals and 160,000 reservists.
On D-Day, the Allies enjoyed total air and naval superiority. Also, their enemies were distracted by a much larger conflict with distant Russia. China cannot count on any such advantages.
The Germans may only have 40,000 at Normandy but they had a million men in France. The German made their own tanks, planes.... This is an example of you see what you want to believe.
Germans were defending the mainland from an island; while Taiwan defending an island from the mainland.
It's all HEAD games with China! They are all delusional!
@@DMSProduktions You mean the Chinese living in Taiwan! Starting with the "Taiwan President"
The Germans were also much more distracted and obsessed with General George S. Patton, the fake army built around him, and the bluffed landing at Calais.
I am a Chinese citizen now working in US, I like this video. Subscriber+1.
Thanks!
Thank you so much!🥹
well done video I also liked how you rotated the map so you can see from Chinese perspective. I think this video should be subtitled also. "5 reasons why China would look stupid after invasion of Taiwan". I hope Taiwan stays independent. this has kept the peace in the world for more than 5 decades.
I have been in many arguments about Taiwan and until now I didnt realise how wrong I was. Thank you for uploading this.
Wow, thank you so much for such a open comment! :)
Excellent..
Good job! Let's keep the peace👍
Very good video with informative rationale to support the reasons why PRC would not invade ROC. Many thanks! I have subscribed and hope this channel grows.
One point that didn’t come out very strongly in the video which I believe is also a very strong inhibitor is the sheer numbers of casualties that the PRC would have to endure to even get a foothold on Taiwan. Most recent estimates put this in the millions (as at end of 2021). Conflict with casualties on this scale would severely weaken PRC overall and this would threaten the security of the CCP at home, which makes for another great reason why there won’t be an invasion IMO.
China is very much fine risking millions in military lives.
Yeah, it would be a catastrophic war on all sides. Brutal, deadly on a huge scale, and costly. And if the US, Japan and others tried to defend Taiwan, that would add even more to the cost in lives lost and economic damage. And of course, in the latter event, it would be difficult to continue to conduct trade with a country (i.e., China) that would have to be moved from 'strategic competitor' to 'enemy'.
Internal stability is pretty much it's #1 priority. Even in authoritarian regimes like the CCP, power still lies within the people and their ability to keep the people happy and content with their ordinary lives. A major crisis or loss of lives will probably cause a response depending on how good CCP media can cover it up, but death tolls in millions as well as economic impacts will show.
A very strong inhibitor is the fact that they are all Han Chinese people with relatives on both sides. They all ultimately share the same culture and ancestry and no one wants to kill one another.
An additional consideration of an invasion is the management of the aftermath irrespective of whether the invasion is successful.
With seaports, airports, land logistics, power stations, communications and governing sectors mostly devastated, neither China nor Taiwan would have much left to provide any benefits. Rebuilding would take years and costs would rack up in hundreds of billions of dollars.
Take the semiconductor industry you mentioned, any disruption in power supply would wreak havoc on the production lines and subsequent order fulfilment for all downstream products. The flow on effect would be unimaginable for every country in the world.
When the allies attacked both Sicily and Normandy in WW2, they did so after ensuring that their aerial and naval preponderance was massive. They dominated in the sky with thousands of planes and over the seas with thousands of ships. Both Germany's and Italy's efforts in those armaments had been practically reduced to nothing. Seaborne invasions could then take place. This is a chess game in which China suffers from many disadvantages especially if Taiwan were to take its own self-defence seriously enough to train its population to fight in its own island state's defence. China cannot start to reduce any single armament that Taiwan possesses unless it engages in open warfare, whether it calls it by some absurd name as Putin has done or another or nothing at all. The moment that that happens, China will find itself assaulted by Japan, the USA, Australia, probably the rest of NATO and possibly India. So China has to concentrate all its Taiwan invasion force on a narrow front, which concentration will give itself away right on for China's enemies have their eyes on her from space, so that a military buildup would be spied, same as Putin's was and would give defence ample time. But China would have to look out and defend other areas of its shoreline. Moreover, a massive amount of its economy and its people are easily reachable by her enemies' airpower and China itself could be subject to a seaborne invasion given the massive force projection of aircraft carriers and their powerful air wings. Right on, China will lose trading with all its enemies and its economy will stutter both in reduced income from sales as well as in raw materials required for production, from which it will be starved. China would be infiltrated and disaffected nationalities and creeds within her would be urged to rebel and secede fromt the majority Han population. The invasion force itself would easily need 5 hours to cross during which time it would be pummelled by surface ships, submarines and airforces with the Taiwanese reinforced by others ready to give any remaining landing forces the firing welcome of their life. China needs to weigh this extremely risky operation against the very present possibilities that it might lose, might lose big and all its government might find itself attacked internally, because the myth of its unbeatability would have vanished. If I were China I would continue to grow and live in peace, prospering with each passing year. Rest assured that America would resist China over Taiwan. The best reasoning for saying that is that America would much better prefer to wage war on China from Taiwan and Japan, having whole populations and their territories and materials and military power behind her back than let China win and consolidate leaving America open to even more attacks from China and having to defend from her Hawaiian shoreline. Russia will not move to help China militarily as the European side of NATO will put Russia in checkmate, North Korea neither as South Korea will chew it up and spit it out. Pakistan neither, as India will use the aggravation as an excuse to invade either Pakistan or China or both. I see China as in a very weak military situation, which is reflective of its weak international political position. America/Europe/Taiwan/South Korea/India are very populous, very rich and very technologically advanced nations, not to mention The Philippines as a base (population 110,000,000) and Australia is technologically on a parity with the USA/Europe and though having a small population, has a territory that is very minerally rich and bigger than the size of India. China is already noticing that with just some military hardware aid to Ukraine, Russia has lost around 50,000 troops and 100,000 wounded fighting an average army that it attacked from across the border without having had to cross any sea. Imagine what will happen to China when it is not only hit by western military hardware but the West starts fighting there with its own soldiers/sailors and pilots. Chinese had for many years a single child policy. There will be millions of ageing Chinese families with their single boy lost. And it will not finish there, for wars have their own devil driving them. China will be invaded and be defeated same as Hitler was and same as Japan was defeated. There will be a military presence and China will be politically re-educated into a democracy, as there is a chance that Russia will if Putin would be stupid enough to touch Nato territory.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 what a load of speculative rubbish. Are you a military expert, or just some one who thinks he knows it all? It appears your expert knowledge wasn’t used in Afghanistan. It also doesn’t take into account that China might not act as you predict. For one thing you can bet the Chinese are quite capable of sinking American aircraft carriers. ( the Pentagon says they are sitting ducks) you say China suffers from many disadvantage but don’t see any disadvantages to the Americans. The Pentagon has warned that in the event of a war with China America would lose badly. It appears your analysis is based more on typical American hubris than logical outcome. Perhaps you play a lot of military computer games. If you were to take past history America has never fared well against a determined enemy even though better equipped. It only successes have been against smaller poorer countries like Panama, Grenada, Libya, Serbia, countries that couldn’t fight back. If a one billion dollar carrier goes to the bottom of the Sth China sea we will see what effect it has on the moral of the bravest soldiers in the world.
@@emanuelgaldes3515 If China attacks Taiwan, no one will come to fight for Taiwan!! America and NATO? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! You mean like America and NATO fighting the Russians over Ukraine? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!
@@emanuelgaldes3515 你为什么会认为美国会真的参与战斗？
Damn, how did it became invasion? It is another domestic war only.
The Art of War , Attack when you're enemies feel safe , and No longer fear you
Philippines stronk. Philippines can defeat China.
China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
czcams.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/video.html
Art of war: fight only when necessary. Winning battles without ever receiving casualties is your goal.
When you are strong, appear weak.
When you are weak, appear strong.
When your GDP is in the tank, make war films. Thanks for the videos!
Good one
Great video and good articulation of views. Although i like to state an error at 1410 - 1420 when you mentioned that East Asian countries particularly Singapore and Indonesia whilst missed mentioning of ASEAN as a regional grouping which include Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Laos Brunei, are non-partisan and would not side Taiwan, China nor US. Philippines and Myanmar may take a different view though but ASEAN (Singapore and Indonesia as indicated in your video) repeatedly made statements that they would not participate in any war in this region but instead continuously propogate peaceful resolution and cooperation. Note these countries are major trading partners, with China and US.
Good analysis of the risks involved in the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Military, political, economic as also aspect the geo-strategic aspects of how the regional allies would react, in the backdrop of US support, very well brought out. 👍
The US hasn't won a war since WW1. Russia defeated Natzi Germany on the eastern front...and the list of surrenders by the US from Korea and Vietnam to Afghanistan speaks volumes. NATO is currently losing to Russia....and if you combine Russia and China's militaries....you get well over 6 million soldiers. The US has no allies beyond NATO. China doesn't need to invade anyone...they can simply stop supplying consumer goods. They rank 1, 2, or 3 in trading partners with every country on the planet.
领土是我们的，上面的人是我们老朋友，你管这个叫入侵？上面的政党企图分裂领土，我们需要纠正一下。不要管太多，这是我们华夏人民自己的事。
@@_wrmushroom6834 Sick Man Of Asia
@@Deceptions1979 美国强盗
@@Deceptions1979 you SOB!
Has anyone considered the complexities and difficulties involved in a war where the soldiers on both sides shared the same language, history, culture, life experiences, etc?
Didn't seem to bother them in tainamen square...
@@timbuktoo2 I guess you must not understand the meaning of the word "war"
That's a good point. As complexities of civil wars?
@@Kamome163 Among other things. Both have been sending each other millions of tourist, business travelers and workers over the past decades. From Taiwan's Official Gov website: "Today, Taiwan is one of the biggest investors in China. Between 1991 and the end of March 2020, approved investment in China comprised 44,056 cases totaling US$188.5 billion. In 2019, the value of cross-strait trade was US$149.2 billion. In that year, travelers from China made 2.68 million visits to Taiwan."
There’s been plenty of civil wars throughout history all over the world. Perfect opportunity for you to read up on the complexities and difficulties they caused.
Good analysis
Thank you William!
This is a fantastic analysis, very well presented.
This presentation is excellent! After so much clickbait - how refreshing it is to see a well done video - by someone whose IQ far exceeds room temperature! Thank you so much for a well done analysis!
There's another reason: any military invasion/occupation will be way too expensive. Modern weaponry is now so complicated that the procurement of sufficient quantities to fight a protracted war will bankrupt even the wealthiest of nations.
Take the fighter plane. In WWII, a P-38 Lightning cost the modern-day equivalent of $3M, and that's on the high end; the famed P-51 Mustang costs less than $700k. Modern-day jets easily go over $60M, 5th and even 4.5 gens push $100M a piece, and they're not firing .50 cal bullets either; a single sidewinder can cost as much as half a million dollars, AMRAAMs are over $1M a pop.
The economic compromises needed to support a modern-day war machine against an equally matched adversary (ie. Anything more than some insurgents with AKs) will be financially crippling for all parties involved. Everything is a dreadnought nowadays. Much cheaper to just keep rattling sabers and filing diplomatic complaints.
Hmmmmm. They did say before 1914 that a major war between Europeans nations was impossible, because it would be too expensive and economically disruptive. Well, Hom. Sap. found a way!
@@PsilocybinCocktail China is really angry right now. LOL
😳🙀🙀
👇🏻
czcams.com/video/U6mtfMVbpk0/video.html
@@PsilocybinCocktail True. Thanks in no small part to Rapallo Treaty and MEFO Fraud.
These numbers are only applicable during peace times as they use the military industry as a means to grow the US economy. It's not the only one but it's a major contributing factor.
On wartime, printing machine will truly go crazy and the numbers won't matter anymore as winner will take all.
You are right ... Too expensive to have war.....plus it won't guarantee you success as well... Just look at what is happening to USA in Afghanistan..... Now adays people having modern war technology just to warn each other to avoid war.....
Very interesting
This video taught me a lot.
Beautiful job! Refreshingly rational and factual. War mongers and media thrives on fear, and it somewhat boosts their readership = better revenues through click baits and advertising. They should shift on what's "interesting" and what new tech that enhances our health and conditions. Very good work Kamone, Looking forward for more from you.
The issue is china is not rational. China like most Asian nations are a “face” culture. Think pride but more public and more life or death.
They have said they will take Taiwan.
It is now a matter of face. They can not back down and they must do it or lose face.
It’s not just media but also governments. Both China and U.S. needs each other as adversary. Russia clearly isn’t as strong anymore so US needs a bigger target to tell its citizens they need to choke up more tax dollars for their militaries
Yes, that map rotation makes it easier to understand the perspectives of each country👍