Are Mike Johnson’s Days Numbered? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Vložit
- čas přidán 22. 04. 2024
- After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan. Each bill won a clear bipartisan majority, but a slim majority of Republicans opposed Ukraine aid. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Rachael Bade, Geoffrey Skelley and Kaleigh Rogers about why this happened now and whether it spells doom for House Speaker Mike Johnson. They also preview primary election day in one of the most pivotal states this fall: Pennsylvania. And they mark Earth Day with an installment of "Guess What Americans Think," on the topic of climate change.
Website: fivethirtyeight.com/
Merch: fivethirtyeight.com/store
Twitter: / fivethirtyeight
Facebook: / fivethirtyeight
Podcast: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
Rachel is always a great and insightful guest
I felt she conveys mostly anecdotal stories and not much data analysis. Interesting, but not why I turn to this podcast.
She could play better with others.
Thank you for the insights.
I don't think it's enough to say that Democratic opposition to the Israeli aid bill is based on the nature of the conflict. I think it's more complete and accurate to say that it's based on specific actions by Israel that violate basic international norms.
Also, I voted uncommitted in the primary, specifically as a protest against insufficient scrutiny for those actions by the Biden administration, but I'm absolutely voting for him in November.
I would be flabbergasted if Democrats lost the presidency but flipped the House.
I'm also a little curious about Galen's statement that Trump is seen as the man to beat in Washington DC. Polls and most public-facing conventional wisdom suggests that it is basically a coin flip and could go either way.
Rachel is a 10/10 guest.
I’m looking forward to some international elections analysis! Not just because of the record breaking year, and not just because of the “repeat” US presidential election, but because a dive into broader data and details helps broaden our analysis capabilities. We only have one timeline to pull case studies and facts, so this wider net embiggens the data pool to dowse for signal. 😅
My air is clean, except when forest fire season comes, at which time, it’s almost time to bug out.
On the public opinion in India on climate change, I’m sure two things come into play: 1) India and Pakistan have heat waves were dozens die and the roads literally melt. I’d also bet acute local environmental degradation plays into that 2) I think it’s a recognition that China and US are the major players to help mitigate (or drive) climate change
Airpods look like earrings from the Jetsons.
Can you make a Venn Diagram on the votes of these bills?
17:15 this is one of the biggest problems we have, no one trusts politicians because they are trying to score political points, actually making things better is a secondary consideration. Such short term thinking is causing terrible damage.
Anyone remember the fart gate with Eric Swalwell when he was running for president? Thought that’s what he meant at first
I like the extended outro music a lot
You have to be in the right zip code to qualify for a tax credit for solar panels.
Are we going to talk about Geoffrey's coffee cup 😶
I laughed at the fart opening
Trump by name, trump by nature.
So, once again, "polling is useless"? Thanks for the update.
Thanks for supporting the algorithm
watching the response to Iran is fascinating because the "tit-for-tat with forgiveness" is a clear signal in Western geopolitical strategy, and to that point the US top brass is unwilling to support a response to Iran--they tatted now it's time to see if the forgiveness sticks. It's easy to fall into a trap of seeing one's self with the sole responsibility of reacting and forgiving, but when the shoe's on the other foot it's critical to play the role of the trusting prisoner.
50:10 or we have the most at stake in the climate crisis and have the best education on the viability of solutions.
Does anyone know when the 2024 election model is coming? Does it usually come this late?
They're prolly waiting for Biden's numbers to get better
Nate’s model is coming in May/June. I haven’t heard when legacy 538 will launch theirs.
@@jruss609 okay thanks for the response, appreciate it!
The election model usually comes in mid-Summer.
47:39 Kaleigh's drinking Elvis's liquor...
my view is that you don't solve the border crisis without confronting the lawlessness and anarchy in many places in central and South America. Security and investment is what is needed in these places to prevent migration in the first place and wall and a lot of the border policies are just a band-aid
Oh God not another intervention please no
Too much from one of the four boxes. Informed or not, share the space.
I am a longtime listener but feel like this was one of the weaker podcasts from you guys. This skewed too much towards “vibes and punditry” and with not enough quantitative analysis and polling. Hope this isn’t a persistant trend!
Agreed.
You have packed in just enough ads ... to repeatedly break your narrative. I'll have to keep this in mind the next time the algorithm drops you in my path.
How the he!! can a pollster be so tone-deaf?
There's no sponsors at all. You're suffering from Google, not 538.
Rachael-- are you a tonalist painter?
Farting... very classy 538, very classy.
👁❤️🍑💨
Depleted of all testosterone
It is pretty easy to keep him in with no D votes, just don't vote against him in large numbers, then Johnson needs just 50% of his caucus. He isn't a D speaker then, no one has voted for him but Rs and it is their mess completely...
After watching dozens and dozens and dozens of hours of the FiveThirtyEight podcast, I'm at the point where I don't believe Galen is an effective moderator any longer. Almost all guests seem to just be trying to appease Galen and every one of them is forced to stay within the exceptionally narrow talk track that Galen already has in his head. This isn't so much a political discussion, a polling discussion, or really much of anything other than "Multiple people stick to Galen's talking points". Not only that but the transitions are abrupt and immediately dismissive of the entire conversation that has just taken place. I appreciate Rachel being refreshing but still, this is the Galen hour every single podcast. It's not engaging, it's old, it's stale. He's not as funny as he thinks he is and it's to the point he talks to guests and even the audience in a "Holier than thou" tone. He either really needs to tone it down and realize he's more effective as a participant and facilitator than the leader of these discussions, or outright step aside an let someone else refresh this podcast. We're at the point that if you disagree with Galen, you get no talk time, you get cut off, you get his poorly aimed sarcasm. If you agree, you don't even get to fully articulate that before he cuts you off.
I'm over Galen. The viewership numbers on the podcast may be steady, but there's nothing engaging here, as a member of the audience, any longer.
Finally someone seems to have put it into words. 538 please read!
Find a different podcast lol
Fart
How do you neglect to mention Israel attacked Irans diplomats in Syria? How do you ignore that we as Americans see mass graves and the corpses of mutilated children on our phones every week?
Im not attacking your integrity. Im calling you lazy. I know you are a politics podcast, but you have to be careful in how you present the news, especially when crimes of genocide (and our countries complicity and support for said war crimes) are involved.
What genocide?
I really love the ethnic diversity of the 538 team !
That stuff has gotten old
@@espesq2391 indeed, I cant remember the last time they recruited someone who wasnt a different shade of white
@@aleekamuiWhat about mr Carlos
tia Mitchell has been on quite a few times as well
and chryl laird was a guest recently