French Election Update: Can Anyone Beat Macron? - TLDR News
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- čas přidán 15. 07. 2024
- We're about 60 days away from the French Presidential election and... well things haven't changed all that much. Macron continues to dominate the field. So in this video we'll run though the other contenders and discuss if anyone else is even in with a shot
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00:00 Introduction
01:10 French Left's Chances
04:33 French Right's Chances
08:10 Why Macron’s the Favourite
Charles de Gaulle famously said “how do you govern a country that has 362 different types of cheese?”
Better 362 types of cheese than one... *hint* China
Or American cheese
@Daniel Fermented bean curd.
And he also used to say french people are calves. Meaning, never happy and always criticizing just for the pleasure of criticizing. Which is pretty accurate. And I'm french. But fortunately not that kind of french :)
@@Fireinthesky67 You're criticizing your own people though.
Given the current situation Macron doesn't have to try to win, the others are making themselves lose given their amount of infighting.
lose
@@prplt corrected, thanks ^^
@@jacobsxavier6082 Either or you stand corrected. You are correct on the usage.
@P4to D0l4n doesn't matter, the second infighting factions are mostly unwilling to cooperate and the ones that might be willing to are too weak anyways. The combination of both factors is pretty likely to make the opponent of Macron too weak to stand a chance. French party-structures are not a bipartite system as in some anglo-saxon countries, so last time it was the center vs the right, so the left would mostly not vote for example.
@Lord Ass no I'm not lol 🙄
Macron is doing a very clever political maneuvre right now: he has so far refrained from formally declaring himself as candidate, there by forcing his opponents to fight each other viciously in a sort of "pre-campaign", which has exposed their flaws. Meanwhile, he still claims only to be doing his "presidential duties", staying above the mudfighting of the campaign despite making some more openly political moves lately. He will wait until the last possible moment to announce his candidacy, to buy valuable time. Imagine, he is dominating the field and he isn't even campaigning!
How is it possible to have about 60 days until election day and people not having announced their candedacy? Isn't there a dead line to nominate a candidate?
@@derorje2035 i think the deadline is in about a month
@@derorje2035 there is an earlier deadline for the others but i think the exiting president has more time so he can "focus" on his duties
I had similar thoughts when I read about Macron not officially candidating. Would love to see him again in office, because he can build a better (understatement) Europe with Scholz. All three coalition parties in Germany are strong in favor of working together Europe-wide. I hope for a good compromise, despite I know german politics can be a bit reserved and I'm sorry for that because Merkel could have been more open towards Macron when he wanted to restructure Europe.
@@juliane__ yep, this is the true chance for Europe now (even though Scholz is objectively a pretty bad politician)
Other intereesting facts :
- In polls, abstention is around 25 to 30%, which is the highest absention level in French history for a presidential election.
- Christiane Taubira announced her candidacy 2 months ago with the aim to unite the French left. She said she would be a candidate only if she won the People's Primary, which she did, and since then she's actively trying to put together the French left.
- One left-wing candidate wasn't mentionned, Roussel from the French communist party, polling around 4%. His party usually supports Melenchon but this time they decided to go alone and they're having the best results since 1995. Roussel is the only one on the left pro-nuclear. If we take him into account the french left is around 25%.
- Macron seems untouched by scandals. A few weeks back he said to the media that he wanted to "piss off" unvaccinated people. A few days ago we discovered that he used 120k of public money for private dinners (in 2016 when he was a minister), yet his voting intention didn't budge.
- Pécresse is trying to appeal both to the Macron and far-right electorate. She said recently that she wanted to "clean up" the streets with a pressure washer of drug dealers and immigrants.
- A significant part of Le Pen party members and leaders are joining Zemmour and it had a tremendous impact, yet not reflected in the polls. He also does the biggest meetings and has a the most numerous and active campaigners. Le Pen claimed he had n*zis among his team yet they do share ideological opinions.
So if the other left candidates come to their minds late in the game and pull out, she still has a chance.
"Macron seems untouched by scandals. A few weeks back he said to the media that he wanted to "piss off" unvaccinated people. A few days ago we discovered that he used 120k of public money for private dinners, yet his voting intention didn't budge"
Because those numbers are fudged.
Good to hear a left wing politician in Europe being pro-Nuclear 👍
+
@ger du Replace antivaxxers with Jews and you'd be imprisoned for hate crimes, you closet fascist.
from france i just want to say that we don't "support" macron so much, we don't want the other to win
so, it is like we here in Poland have with Kaczyński's party, the PiS
It's kind of a necessary evil in a way
tipical french whining
@@krakendragonslayer1909 who are the alternative?
@@robertabella1806 imagine saying that and not even being able to spell in English
To give a bit of context, most parties (except maybe Pecresse and Le Pen) expect Macron to win this bid and see the election as a way to position themselves to what will inevitably comes after the election : a great restructuring of the French political landscape, both at the left and the right. It's almost a given that Le Pen's Rassemblement National and Pecresse's Les republicains won't survive in their current state losing this election. The Greens and Melenchon's party both want to be the main left party and replace what remains of the old socialist party. As Macron has no natural successor and his party is built around his personnality, the next bid in 2027 is very open.
Agreed two things that is favourable for Macron is not only the infighting but that he can unite moderates be it left wing or right wing voters, which people seem to disregard. there are more moderates than right wing or left wing vote. at least they are the most active when it comes to the votes.
What you don't know is that Macron has been removed by the military. They will never allow one of his liberal, progressive, globalist clones be elected to continue in the same way with destructive policies.
Good analysis except for one point. On the left side, Mélenchon and his party are mostly focused on this election instead of planning reconstruction. With more insight on "ground-level" hey're actually having relativ good chances to go 2nd round. The more we get close to élection, the more activ personalities from civil society are taking position and joining Melenchon "troops". (Youngs climate leaders, renowned ex-members from noticeable NGO's...). We can see as well movements in the "french politic youtube game".
Well, Macron successor will probably be his former prime minister, Édouard Philippe who is the most liked politician in France
The left are just total clowns 🤡
6:33 Imagine running a campaign on making people work more hours a week and for more years of their life, and then being surprised when you lose the first round to “populist” right-wing candidates.
The elites are detached from the common people. It's like Macron thinking it was a good idea to rise fuel prices and then being surprised by the Yellow Vests.
You can find jobs and sign contracts that involve as little work hours as you like. You can stop working whenever you want.
People are lazy and entiled.
Because Marine Le Pen is on the left economically speaking. A significant part of her electorate is composed of former communist voters. She's a marxist almost like Mélenchon. Basically, she has no vertebral column and says what some people want to hear (she wants to go back to retirement at 60 for instance, just insane). Noticeably, Zemmour is economically on the right side and doesn't talk that sort of BS.
@@Fireinthesky67 And that’s why I predict LePen will out-perform all the other right-wing candidates. Free market rhetoric found in bourgeois circles is not popular among the working class.
@@Fireinthesky67 Le Pen uses left wing rhethoric but her economic policies are the exact same neoliberal austerity as Macron's, only with extra racism added.
You forgot to notice that members from Marine le Pen's party are leaving to Zemmour's party
Her polling was insane at some point. Never understood the decision of the right/far-right to split up the vote.
@@KommentarSpaltenKrieger le pen would be more palatable to the public but swing the electorate to the right wing making Zemmour not as right wing look up the Overton Window. French youths are incredibly far right. with 32% of youths voting for Le Pen in 2017 compared to 26% for Macron essentially Macron wins by minority votes while the ethnic French youths vote for far right parties. just some food for thought. Its a polar opposite to other western nations where the youth is overwhelmingly left wing while in France its very split with a lead to the far right.
@@covfefe1787 disconcerting, for sure. is it due to propaganda or to actual problems in relation to migration and similar issues which the youth faces more directly than other age groups? (i would not say such problems can justify voting for the far-right, but regardless, some kind of explanation is probably needed. where i live, the youth has a higher preference for the greens and the classical liberals than other parts of the electorate, while the youth vote for the far-right matches that of other age groups)
@@KommentarSpaltenKrieger there is no explanation needed the issues I’ve described are the issues that these people voted for its not my view its factual statistics. Migration is Frances number 1 issue according to the French public. the reason the far right is gaining steam because everyone else is ignoring the issues because they term everyone who recognizes these issues as existential threats to civilization as being bigoted and racist. by 2026 France will have a far right president because Macron isnt addressing immigration reform and carrying on with the same stuff just harsher rhetoric. clearly people are angry and they want change by any means necessary.
@@KommentarSpaltenKrieger btw propoganda has nothing to due with this were the 2015 Paris terrorists ant islam propaganda? no the muslims did it themselves. the people experience and see these issues themselves its not fake news.
It's interesting especially in comparison with Germany where the current chancellor always has a huge advantage for the next election.
Well in the polls the CDU has already surpassed the SPD by 5%. This was only really true for Merkel.
We'll see. Polls and opinion s nowadays are incredibly volatile. Scholz still has many political projects on the agenda until 2025
Because here in Germany people vote in the dumbest way possible. They don't consider candidate's policies, but find the dumbest reason to vote for someone. "Oh he's already chancellor? Well I guess he must be good then. I'll vote for him."
@@iexist.imnotjoking5700 lmao
In my country for example, our Founding Father in his later years, if I am not wrong do not have to contest in any election (or not much) because no one is stupid enough to contest against him. He won most of it by walk-over.
Though don't get me wrong, he probably win by at least 95% if he contest them.
Some important clarifications I think are needed:
Jean-Luc Mélenchon was polling at 14% two months before the 2017 election, with a final score of almost 20% of the vote. I don't think it's pertinent to associate voting intentions with actual voting outcomes to compare two elections. French polling is famously inaccurate - just ask anyone in France whether they think Pécresse can make it to the second round, and I think the reaction you'll get is laughter, especially after her disastrous campaign meeting at the Zenith, in Paris.
Yes, in 2012 and 2017 Mélenchon doubled his score within two months. It looks like he is on this way once again, as since this video was released he went from 10 to 14%. Each time he comes back his program (which is fruit of 15 years of a very collective and active work) is more and more solid. No matter if we like it or not, no one having read all the programs can seriously say that the most detailed and economically solid is not the one Mélenchon presents.
And I can tell too that Pécresse has only ridiculed herself each time she went for a speech or a debate. She was not a surprise during Republican's primary because she was an outsider, but because she was one of the worst candidate possible. Her level of incompetence being only matched by her level of condescension, she's not just laughed at, she's also very antipathetic. When people laugh at Lasalle (the most lunar candidate in this election) they still got some respect and even affection for the guy, but when they laugh at Pécresse they sincerely hate her guts.
The three extremes of France: far left, far right and far center.
In terms of implemented policy, what you call far center has been the most right wing government of French hustory since WWII (prety much wathever the party in power each government has been more right wing than the previous one except one or two times).
Macron is slightly right wing
louis leycuras it must be understood that yes macron in france can be seen as right-leaning, however the spectrum is completely different here than in the US. The US has some of the most right wing political landscape compared to the rest of the world. In an American world, there is no way in which he would be seen as right wing.
Who is far center?
@@attentioncestpaslegal7847 I suppose in his mind it's Macron (Macron tries to sell himself as a centrist) but if you look at its policy Macron is much more on the right any of its predecessors on pretty much any subject
TLDR; if Macron loses, it's not because the other candidate is worth voting for, it's because people just don't like Macron.
peoplke dont like the others too :)
HUH my guy, do you even live in france? My parents and grandparents don't even call him by his name anymore, also just look at how many times hes been attacked out, he got told that he was bad by a 6 year old, he got hit by an egg and he got slapped by someone in a meet and greet.
@@archiaylien9650 and what's the alternative? except the candidates that have too few votes to make it the alternative is laughable!
@@achillestheant430 zemmour can win, the polls are not saying the fact…
@@Ice-lw1ym I guess you're right he might steal the win from Macron
Longer workweek and higher pension age.. yeah, that will definitely attract voters
Don't underestimate the ability of people to vote against their own interests.
@@_blank-_ prevention of economic failure by raising the pension age is in their interest
@@itchyscientist0576 yeah, what a lot of people don't realize about France is that their labour laws are very relaxed. The french work week for example is only 35 hours, so extending it to let's say 40 isn't all that radical when compared to other countries.
@@itchyscientist0576 Boy, I love working till I'm 90 because everyone's too xenophobic to let more young people from other countries work here.
@@biggiec8224 I'd love to have 35, 40 sucks
Hildalgo's disastrous results were written in advance (aside from Ségolène Royal, I don't think there's a more widely despised political person on the left). Her candidacy is a great illustration of how disconnected the socialist party has become from french society. The fight between party apparatchik to be the official candidate entirely relies on internal politics, regardless the actual chances of electoral success. Their last candidate (Benoît Hamon) faced an humiliating defeat, but it didn't trigger any soul searching.
Best chance regarding left candidates is Mélenchon and unlike what is suggested on this video, that's a freaking good one. We've got here far from just a conspiracist and his party triggers currently something in France. He will be in the top 3 for sure. Personally hoping he'll get the chance to pass 1st round.
@@rhapsodia6188 actually this video is quite accurate: his chances were much higher in 2017. He was convinced that he'd make it to the second round (even if ultimately finishing 4th at 16%). In 2022, he starts with much lower projected scores. He is a polarizing figure, and I doubt that he'll grab votes outside his current baseline.
Why is Royal so despised? I'm American but I find EU politics very interesting.
@@hydroxerneas2175 because she’s an entitled disconnected « left » politician. As the years go by, the principles and ideas she carried passed from « progressive and innovative » to « backwards and outdated ». She is the symbol of the old French left, the one that the french people are calling « traitors » for putting liberalism before socialism. She’s in the same political « limbo » as Manuel Valls (former left PM) for example. Today’s left voters don’t see them as left enough and center/right voters do not even consider them.
@@hydroxerneas2175 @Anthony gave some reasons, but it's not just the left voters (who have reasons to be pissed-off; her generation of socialist leaders killed the party).
Many voters right and center can't stand her either, and not just because they hold different political views. She's ones of these professional politicians who have been around for over 30 years. Whenever she speaks she tends to present herself as very smart and visionary, but she's mostly reacting whatever topic is trending, spouting contradictory and nonsensical statements. Some politicians (like BoJo) somehow made a career out of it, but being cold and arrogant it's much harder to pull-off.
For example, during the presidential debate before the second turn in 2007, she reacted to the recent news of a policewoman that had been raped after her night shift. She literally said that if she was elected president public servants would be protected, and especially policewomen would be escorted back home.
It's the typical Royal sequence:
1. Take a news item. 2. Miss the global issue (high-crime in certain areas), to focus a specific case. 3. Extrapolates an impractical and costly solution (protect millions of civil servants). 4. Manage to alienate a good chunk of the 20 millions viewers who are not civil servants and apparently don't need to be protected at night. 5. Afterward, when confronted to you logical fallacies, always maintain that you were right.
I'd say he has a 50/50 % chance of winning. You see, he is liked by about 35% of people but which is more than the previous presidents, but Hollande for example just left people indifferent, whilst Macron is literally HATED by an enormous amount of people, remember the gilets jaunes...
I don’t think yellow vests was directed against just Macron. Maybe the start, but it became grievances against everything.
@@TheBooban They literally rushed a theater he was in at the time.
If anything it didn't start out as directed at Macron, but it definitely became about him.
Macron is loathed by much of the electorate, but like in 2002 in 2017 it is more than likely a far-right candidate would be crushed in the run-off. Chirac was deeply unpopular but still won 82% of the vote in 2002 despite corruption scandals.
@@toph8298eh I’m not so sure especially given how one of the main complaints about macron is that he is an illegitimate “president by default” because his opponent was Marine Le Pen ffs. If we saw a Macron-Le Pen rematch, it would at the very least result in 40% or more levels of abstention and a very narrow margin of victory that could go either way.
Zemmour is more complicated, while more openly extreme than Le Pen, his last name is not Le Pen and he does have the open support of the hard right of LR should he face macron. Will Zemmour win? Probably not but history can be surprising
@@toph8298 i think the electorate loath every politician. Understandable.
About the so-called popular primary (which I voted in), most of the candidates included never agreed to participate, contrary to what the organisers claimed.
It gets worse: the organisers were caught on audio saying their initial goal was literally to get rid of Taubira's rivals. A handful of mainstream media have relayed this info. Just shows how broken French politics are.
Then why did you vote in it if you knew that ?
@@Lord-Pierre Maby he didn't know at the time?
the french péderaste
TRUE that was a big joke ... c'était une mascarade !
As an American, it makes me feel a little better to see that we're not the only ones with a political shit show on our hands
Hey, TLDR,
I think you sholud invest in an in-line mic pre-amp (Like the FetHead or Cloud Lifter or any other brand). That mic really needs such a device.
6:19 “2 3rds Merkel” eh might be a good moderate candidate that could take France forward
“1 third thatcher” oh never mind
any person that proclaims themselves as any part thatcher raises a lot of suspicions imo
@@koobyn Maybe the 1 third is everything good Thatcher has ever done, but think that would be more close to 1 tenth of her reign
@@KingArthur39 so essentially it is only kicking Argentinas ass ?
Merkel wasn’t moderate, she was authoritarian
@@janwolfsgruber5444 Yes, that was based of her
Just asking while there be a new intro without Merkel because like she isn't chancellor
Well considering the damage she has caused Europe I think she should remain if only as a reminder on what could be having good humanitarian intentions can have bad repercussions
And moreover, during French 5th Republic, any president has been reelected when in was totally in power. The two French president who has been reelected, were reelected after a "cohabitation". A French concept to designate the situation when the President and the majority in the parliament (and so the Prime minister) aren't in the same party/coalition. So, in fact French people always "dégage" their ruling majority since 1981.
will this time be different ?
@@didierlemoine6771 It depends if Macron get reelected or not. If he, that gonna be a first time
@@giuseppemichel1512 yes the right and the left hv no majority :)
@@didierlemoine6771 I don't understand your comment ?
@@giuseppemichel1512 Neither the right nor the left have a majority in Parliament. Macron's nominally centrist party passes legislation thanks to being propped up by minor centre-right and centre-left parties.
How anyone can be proud calling themselves one third Margret Thatcher is beyond me.
Funny enough I view calling myself 2/3 Angela Merkel as the real kicker
I have yet to hear a good argument against Thatcher other than bitching that the oil wells went dry in Scotland, which would have happened anyway
@@itchyscientist0576 Her support to Apartheid in South Africa made the regime stay in power longer and harmed SA's stability and prosperity.
@@antoine9231 tbh south Africa now is 10x more racist then the Apartheid age as African tribes are openly Racist to each other, lynch each other, and also attack the indian populace, it's so bad the Indian have to arm themselves now. Sure the "public" hate apartheid but Libyans also hate Gaddafi and Iraqis hated Suddem Hussein, but Libya and Iraq was FAR better under their rule then any "democracy". The fall of Apatheid, Suddam, and Gaddafi is the WORST mistake ever and its gonna happen again if the West interfere with Ukraine, Ukraine is richer under Russia.
@@asscheeks3212 No, South Africa is not more racist today than the Apartheid age. Please crack open a history book.
I would say it heavily relies on fifth wave covid numbers.
People have in my experience a very short memory when it comes to french presidential elections (to some degree) So if he can give a bit of freedom back in terms of pandemic restrictions, people will look onto him favourably enough so he can outrun any challenger on the second round.
I would say he is counting on it too since he has yet to announce officially his candidacy, wanting to milk his potential good results as his best reelection argument (after all how often do internal politics show results after only a few months?)
What's crazy is he closed 5k hospital beds and continued weakening the healthcare system but successfully managed to shift the blame on unvaccinated people.
He imposed draconian restrictions with no real scientific reason, just to gain popularity when he'll finally lift them.
Bonjour, les français voteront surtout pour le candidat du pouvoir d'achat, et très peu en réalité selon les restrictions du covid-19. Je suis français, bises
@@pierre6285 On verra bien, l'attente ne sera plus très longue maintenant. Moi aussi je suis français 😉. La bise.
This is obviously done by someone who's not french
Trusting the polls in france is like trusting the horoscope
Edit :here are some examples
1974 :mitterand was going to win it's sure , giscard wins
1981 :is the second round going to be giscard vs marchais? No it's mitterand again and he wins
1988 : Chirac is never going to the 2nd round , he is
1995 : balladur is too popular and chirac is only at 3% 3 month later chirac was président
2002 : chirac is going to loose to jospin it's for sure , jospin doesn't even make it to the 2nd round
2007 : after 12 years of leadership from the right the left is going to win it's for sure , sarkozy is elected
2012 : sarkozy reagined it's electorat he is going to win , hollande is elected
2017 : Macron will never make it it's going to be a stand off between Le pen and Fillion , guess who won
2022 : Macron is at 26 percent and is going to. win for sure (although his score is pretty sus since it's been 25-26% for months without moving but there again macron is loathed by the general public and has lost popularity points recently)
zemmour has a definite advantge in debates, making him my favourite to win if he goes through to the second round, but the 1st round will probably not be a piece of cake knowing how everyone is pretty much uniting against him (melenchon pecresse and macron will definitly try to make him lose at the 1st round, knowing le pen is much less eloquent)
@@Milan-lj7mk Zemmour is the puppet of Macron.
@@SainyaHokage lol definitely not
@@FelixRoseAs You know little about french politics... Zemmour is a puppet who ignores he is one...
Facts 😂
“The French love kicking out their leaders”
Wasn’t that what the guillotine was originally used for?
Nah, the guillotine was used to make sure they don't come back.
Not kicking them, for kicking their buckets
I wish Cromwell's lot had used the guillotine to 'kick out Charles I' instead of an axe and then perhaps we wouldn't be faced with a soon to be Charles III. Assuming that Tokisaki Kurumi's suggestion (above) that the guillotine was used to ensure that they never returned is accurate.
Will you guys do a video on the Hungarian elections? I'm curious how you'd present that.
presented with the russian anthem and complete disregard for basic universal human rights
They will as stated in an earlier video
@@riskinhos You’ve never been to Hungary, have you?
It's a horrible thought that there's a worse candidate than the despicable Le Pen.
Le Pen is clearly a moderate compared to Zemmour. She's depicted as being too leftist by Zemmour supporters
@@arthur__lt Pretty much my point - Le Pen is as close to a Nazi as makes no difference, it reminds me of Lord Haw-haw being kicked out of the BUF by Moseley, for being too Fascist.
Zemmour is great, he isn't extreme enough though.
@@AveryFB 🤡
you should follow the Swedish election in September it is more calm and you easy get asleep in front of CZcams
I wouldn't really call it a rule that the French like to kick out their leaders, even if it has been twenty years since, because in that interim period they have only had three presidential elections.
Great video! Great animations as always, but Jack wasn't in focus (meaning eyes/face were fuzzy).
Taubira won the primary because having organized it and the others rejected it, mainly her electors voted
Thank you! At least someone followed.
Imagine campaigning on increasing the work week lmao
Congratulations for 300,000 subscribers!
Great video!
France needs a strong conservative Jewish leader like Eric Zemmour.
May god hear you! This is the target.
The centre-right candidate definitely doesn't sound very centre.
Yeah, I was under impression that Europe's right is relatively tame compared to US. However if this is what centre-right looks like idk what even far right looks like.
She's quite a centre-right to me, banning religious symbols in public dates back from the french revolution, accepting civil union while stopping short of actual marriage is still quite progressive by right-wing standards, and the more conservative economic policies are still quite liberal given france has one of the highest tax rates in the world.
I'd be fine with either macron or pécresse getting elected, and it seems the wider french electorates share this sentiment.
@Tarik Essarhir even Trump wasn’t that bad like goddamn. I feel bad for French moderates Edit: any French person of color
congratz with 300k
1 day later: 300k subs.
Congrats! :))
Make a TLDR France please ;(!!!!! I am French but I love your channel!
It probably bears saying that Melanchon and Jadot denounced the primary from the start, and Hidalgo before it took place. It's not like they did it only after the results came in.
congrats on 300K subs!
You already made 300k subs here’s to TLDR going for 350k by the end of 2022
"Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forty percent of all people know that."
Ever since the 2016 us election I'll never trust a poll again
Didn't Taubira herself divide Lionel Jospin's votes in 2002 that resulted with no left-wing candidate entering second round? How can she expect people uniting around her?
Haven't seen you mate, for a long time
E. Macron: i feel comfortable to organize a Party in May at Elysee Palace
B. Johnson: May i join ?
“Results have been written in advance” convenient when you have no chance of winning
it's very easy to "dig up" a murder story in a 2 months span of time in a country like France... (and attribute it to a conspiracy)
The 'Results' part of the sentence was actually added by some journalists for any particular reason 🤭
@@kolerick That was literally the poiny. The point isn't that the murder is orchestrated but that it will be used as a tool for the media to push right wing candidates forward. Again, as you said, finding some random gruesome anecdotal murder over that time span is trivially easy. The whole schtick is pushing that information as headline news at that specific time
3:15
392,000 people is a pretty small number compared to the 65~66 million people who live in France.
This is because thèse elections had no legitimacy whatsoever given that most of the candidates announced refused to even participate and denounced the elections as politician bullshit. Most of the leftist electorate thus stayed out of it. Those that voted were mostly the left's right/centre and already Taubira's supporters. The "primaire populaire" was hardly a popular movement.
This is because the political scene as a whole shifted to the right ; this made the traditional socialist party espouse néoliberal thought. Naturally, after Hollande many among the left electorate felt betrayed and the socialist party imploded which explains the division. The ex-members of the party like Taubira still bear the left etiquette but they represent a very small electorate each. It is not at all a surprise that the "Primaire populaire" was widely unsuccessful. This is some unpopular people trying to stay relevent, not an attempt to unite all forces of the left in the country (such an attempt can not succeed, the candidates may share the leftist title in theory, they have widely different programs and very little to unite them in fact)
They called the titanic unsinkable…
Well, in that case...
*pulls out vintage wine*
Hail Caesar.
The left is a joke for these elections except for Mélenchon who's used to running.
Zemmour has the most dynamic campaign, somewhat similar to Trump (2016) and Macron (2017) and he just might be able to unite both nationalists and republicans. A debate between Macron and Pécresse has no meaning whatsoever, not to say that Pécresse has the charisma of a crab, but should Macron have to debate with Zemmour, that's another deal, Zemmour knows how to debate because soft-right, left, and center have been hitting on him for 20 years.
Zemmour is not good for thé France
When looking at the other viable candidates, i'd probably also vote for Macron. Not to keep him in, but to keep the others out
Yes
You'd not say that if you lived here.... Macron is an incompetent authoritarian. Mr bean meets hitler - he's destroyed France. Even Zimmour would probably be better than this clown.
@@Jennyeq how’s that?
@@cia5649 some people are irrationally angry here. Really, not based on any fact or any such thing. He won't have any argument that you can't show wrong. I used to think that those people had some reason that I failed to see from my perspective for hating macron, but I have come to understand that this is not based on reality, more so on a general ager and insatisfaction NO MATTER WHAT president is elected. The eternal unsatisfied.
@@guillaumemasclet9315 he's cut taxes on the rich, cut help for the poor, received an award for climate inaction, his ministers have denied police violence existing, called Le Pen too soft, and released uncomplete covid protocols last minute from Ibiza, privatised the FDJ, reopened coal power plants, he's cut funding to public health, cut funding to education, cut 6000 ICU beds during a pandemic year, lied about masks being ineffective to hide that he didn't renew the mask stock to save money.
Is that enough reason for you?
Macron is another neoliberal piece of trash, sacrificing the poor and the planet to funnel more money to his rich friends. French billionaires had their wealth go from 154B in 2017 to 419B today. While 9 million french people are in poverty.
This is an excellent video
Got to admit, Macron is a pretty fair-ish candidate out of all of them.
You're everywhere aren't you
Excuse me sir are you following the entire internet?
Internationaly he makes the job but domestic is not good
Thanks TLDR.
Valerie Percresse is definitely something. First President and then re-elected President of the Regional Council of Ile-de-France, where left-leaning Paris is located.
Then again, a French dropped a comment on a news article or a video back in December or January got me laughing:
“Percresse est une Macron en femme.”
A few French I know of prefer her over Le Pen anyway.
she has zero charisma, she thinks she is thefrench margaret thatcher, she is ridiculous, macron is miles better
@@Paul-xu6gt Personally I think Macron is still much better than her and others. Macron is rather decent/above-average. Macron will win in April, but I have doubts about whether he can still withstand another election after ten yrs (if he faces Percresse again).
Edit: A French has informed me that I made a mistake there: there’s no third term.
@@mab9614 Every other candidate is better than Macron
Literally voting for a probable weeb hahaha
@@mab9614 You can't be president for a third time in France anyway.
The simple fact that this is even a question shows how doomed this country is.
Funny because as a french everytime I ask someone about the presidential election they tell me that they not gonna vote for Macron, but polls gaves him winner anyway.
you should have put Valérie Pécresse on the thumbnail
Assuming Macron wins, I am worried about the reactions to his election. The french society seems very fragmented, Macron himself seems very polarizing, the yellow jacket movement should not be considered to be extinguished, inflation, etc.
Yeah, the fire is still burning.
inflation is world problem not Macron :))
@Didier Lemoine leaders tend to get blamed for things out of their control.
@manny022 doesn't help that the yellow jacket movement kinda self destruct, nowadays the movement is pretty much reduced to antivax nutjob conspiracists & other cloudcuckoolanders...
If he's elected it's civil war We can't stand for 5 more years of this nazi
France doesn't really like to kick their leaders out. Out of the 7 French Presidents of the fifth Republic, 3 were reelected, one died in office, 2 lost their second elections and one didn't try. The last two Presidents weren't reelected, but it's not enough to say "that means France like to kick out their leaders". There is a lot more than this simplistic conclusion
Mittérand (socialist party) was reelected in 1988, but the National Assembly and the government from 86 to 88 was right wing (Chirac was prime minister). Same thing happened in 97: Chirac was president but the National Assembly had a socialist majority from 97 to 02, when Chirac was reelected.
This was in part due to France's weird political system, in which the president is the de facto political leader when he has a majority at the National Assembly but the Prime Minister is when the president doesn't have a majority (called "cohabitation", it happened 3 times in the Vth Republic, mainly due to the fact the president was elected for 7 years but the Assembly was elected for 5 years. We have since changed the constitution so that both are elected for 5 years).
So since 1974, it went something like that:
74-81: right (president VGE)
81-86: left (president Mittérand)
86-88: right (Prime Minister Chirac-president mitterand)
88-93: left (president Mittérand)
93-95: right (PM Balladur-president mitterand)
95-97: right (president Chirac)
97-02: left (PM Jospin-president chirac)
02-07: right (president Chirac)
07-12: right (pres. Sarkozy)
12-17: left (pres. Hollande)
17-22: "center" (pres. Macron)
In conclusion, since Charles de Gaulle, each time a political figure in office and with actual political power (either PM or president) ran for reelection, they lost.
"France doesn't like to kick their leaders out" Louis XVI: 😅
@@thomasdupont1905 Yes, and de Gaulle didn't even finish his second term.
@@thomasdupont1905 he simply said "if he's reelected, it will be quite an achievement" which is not because half of the past presidents were reelected. But you're right, there is more than just being reelected, this was not his point though
One President of Council in the third Republic died in the arms of his mistress and restaured the reputation of the country
good stuff
Bless him boy is back
its not that macron cant loose but more that the other cannot win
9:06 The concluding sentence is poorly worded. Saying that Macron may "break" another French political rule implies something dastardly. Instead, him winning a hypothetical second consecutive term will be merely ending a two decade-long political conventional wisdom.
Elections are more fun when they arent a virtual 1v1
Macro Macro, moi croissant
Let the Baguette fight begin!
is it just me or have elections in the past five or so years started to follow the same criteria?
Which is: "We donˋt like anyone of the candidates, but we dislike one less than the others" or in case where the are only two candidates "We hate him, but the other one we despise"
this is what Peruvian elections are since I was born
It is the case since chirac's presidency back in 2002.
No Wonder absenteism is very high in France, people don't vote for the candidate they want, they vote against the candidate they don't want.
That was always how bourgeois liberal elections work
@@evilrhapsody3845 why do I have the feeling that you do not know the meaning of half the word you just said.
But you have to consider that the French are always upset about everything
I remember a time when Hillary Clinton had 95% chance to win the election…
Also, you description of that is not very aware about all the recent change.I hope you can work with French people who can tell you what is happening.
Hillary vs Trump was a race for an empty seat. This race is about an incumbent vs a fragmented opposition. In these kinds of scenarios the incumbent is almost guaranteed to win.
USA electoral system is made to allow someone to “win” the election while still having less votes in total. This is not the case in France, where the one who gets the most votes wins.
Yo like only 1 of the last 3 presidents had the most votes man... Trump and Bush won even though they had LESS votes. Don't compare the US with other countries man.
US and French electoral systems are different.
The US has one of the dumbest and least representative "democratic" systems in the world, don't assume the rest of the world is the same.
Winning is not about being the most competent but being the least incompetent.
This competitive picture of Macron makes it look like he's ready to throw some hands.
Same situation occured in 2002.
Prime minister Jospin, center-left, was favorite so most of his electors spread their votes on minor candidates. Result was, President Chirac was first and rightist Le Pen second, Jospin was out.
This year, Macron will have no support from left where 10 candidates compete. He will lose voters on the right to Pecresse.
So he could finish third behind Pecresse and one of rightist candidate, Zemmour or Le Pen.
sorry Jospin was left and former Trotskyist
6:22 "...described herself as 2/3 Angela Merkel and 1/2 Margaret Thatcher..."
Or as everyone else would call it... "Evil"
Politics seems to be messy no matter which countries🤨🤔
"...describing herself as parts Thatcher..."
snake-tongued Pepe of disgust
We French have a pragmatic way of thinking on the présidential élection.
Macron is maybe not the best but he is not the worst either.
Unlike the other , his stance on the european union is cristal clear.
Plus , his policy is aimed toward those who are working hard .
As a truck driver doing + 200 hours a month i can’t complain about his presidency.
5 more years 🇫🇷
the billionnaires thank you for your support !
I change my comment he has used far right tactics.
@@oscarosullivan4513 his hand picked interior minister said that we should treat muslims like napoleon treated jews.
His higher education minister started a scandal about supposed "islamoleftism" in universities, whatever that means.
His former interior minister denied that police violence against minorities was an issue.
The police (which he refuses to reform) under his watch have beaten up and targeted migrants and minorities continuously
I guess as long as corruption is not seen and hidden all is good
WEF thanks you for your contribution!
Something you don't show clearly is the score of Macron on the first round which seems to be around 24%. Just a clarification as some people may wonder how much further than other candidates he could be at the first turn.
They are so lucky to get 3 vaguely decent choices!
I mean with Le Pen stroking :P
And all the infighting; Macron is surely ok.
Depends on how the left votes in the second round.
Macron will win most likely, the leftist voters will vote for him out of fear for the far right.
Why do you call it the left and far right.should be far left and right.
I don’t think you understand how those on the far left like melenchons base really hate macron
I'll vote Mélenchon in the first round, and if it ends up as Macron vs Pécresse or Macron vs Le Pen I wouldn't vote.
If it's Macron vs Zemmour I'll probably end up voting Macron and washing my hands a dozen times in the next hour.
I doubt it, personally I think a lot of traditional left-voting people will abstain in such a situation.
ignoreme imdumb Nonsense
A significant part of the french electorate hates Macron because since 2017 the country is politically divided into three parts instead of two parts: basically the far left (Mélenchon, Jadot, Taubira, Roussel), the far right (Le Pen, Zemmour and half of LR) and the center (Macron and the other half of LR). But even a more important majority of people find Le Pen incompetent to lead the country and still dangerous on several aspects, and with a more unanimous majority Zemmour is considered as a serious threat to the country and democracy in general (according to polls, around 60-70% find him incompetent, not convincing, dangerous, misogynist, racist, etc). In these circumstances, any future president, Macron or another, will be equally hated.
As to Pécresse, she has no charisma and no real vision for the country. She sounds fake and recycles old language elements and attitudes. On the right side lots of people were disappointed by Sarkozy, the last president from the right. They simply don't believe Pécresse can accomplish the promises Sarkozy was not able to fulfill. That's why so many people on the right side of the political chessboard vote for Le Pen or now are joining Zemmour.
Therefore, Macron will be most likely confronted again to Le Pen. Zemmour, on his side, has no chance to be on the second round. And actually I consider that's a pity. I would love to have him to debate with Macron. It would be a great opportunity for Macron to destroy and ridicule Zemmour and his nationalism as Macron did with Le Pen who was being liquefied on the spot during the debate of the second round in 2017. Lots of people, even those who do not like him, think Zemmour is an intelligent man and has culture when in reality he's an impostor and a charlatan who proposes a phony vision to France. Zemmour losing face in front of 20 millions viewers would be an excellent thing for the mental health of France.
To conclude, France needs political stability to be able to develop as a country long term projects instead of changing all the time. Only time can tell whether choices of a president lead to positive or negative outcome, 5 years is never enough and often the following president benefits from the choices taken by his predecessor. I think Macron has to be and will be chosen for a second term.
I hate everything Zemmour stands for, but you have to admit he's pretty smart. He knows how to make himself sound right in debates by humiliating his opponents and not letting them speak + deforming their statements. I hate his way of debating, it destroys the whole purpose of a debate, but you have to admit it does attract people towards him because they think he's winning the debates and that he's right...
So biased but we like it x)
Jadot and Taubira aren't even left, let alone "far-left" lmao. The far left are Poutou and Arthaud.
Taubira far left what a joke
@@goganii This form of debate do not require being very intelligent. Many people sadly find bullies to be attractive. This says a lot more about the intellect, empathy and the capabilities of respect themselves and others of the electorate then on his intelligence. He just either smart enough to figure out (not that its difficult) what his voters want to see or its his general personality (or both).
Wait, the French presidential election is on my birthday! How about that…
I don’t even have to watch the video to tell you that peanut butter cups can beat macarons.
Vive la France ! 🔵⚪🔴
@ignoreme imdumb Why is France stealing 500 billion dollars from Africa every year?
@@lawbringer9857 *China*US*
@Normie meme not only China but mainly China yes
Relying on poling and modelling. Doesn't anyone ever learn?
Poll numbers are not perfect as we've seen the past years but they definitely beat anecdotal evidence
Poll aggregates have successfully predicted the outcome of every Canadian provincial and federal election in the past few years (predicted who would win in general, the final seat counts were not always accurate, polling seems to work well in parliamentary democracies).
TLDR :" The French love to kick out their leaders"
"Me rolling about remember about the French Revolution" 😂😂
this is true, but is is because they are not relevant
They have had two empires, three kingdoms and five republlics and they still have not worked out how to govern themselves peacefully.
Pepper Kack Cheese is an existing American cheese. It took me forever to come up with that.
400k voted in the primary out of the 65 million French?
Damn, in Hungary 600k+ voted on the opposition's primary, and Hungary's population is just 10 million.
You didn't listen, it was an online non official vote for the left parties
67
Yes only some bourgeois from paris vote lol
Very few people vote in France
This primary is a non-event in French politics.
You can safely ignore it.
Great video !
Well it is hard to forecast what will happen for several reasons :
1 - no debate between all candidates has occurred yet which could have an effect on the voting polls
2 - we don’t know how many people will actually vote
3 - there is a risk for Macron to suffer from the “1st place in the poll malus” (not official rule) = people dont go to vote as they think others will do it for them resulting in a lower than expecting lead for the 1st candidate in the polls
4 - Price inflation could also have an effect on people vote
Do not worry about 4. Macron has used the dirtiest trickes to insure the prices shall inscrease only after the election ; including asking ÉDF to pay billions of euros to its competitors.
Yes. If the opponent is named Macaroni.
Other candidates are making a fool of themselves, so he doesn't have to try.
Long gone are the times where there were at least 3 serious candidates with presidential status, whether from left or right.
Don't worry, Macron also has no presidential status. So it's an even fight.
It's a difficult situation. As many French people hate Macron (he's super elitist and pretentious and a banker) but the alternatives are a lot worse.
Maybe Pécresse, but as far I can tell, I don't feel that she is inspiring much enthusiasm.
Like in the USA.
Every french is pretentious. This is why they feel they are in charge of the third world and should intevene everywhere on earth.
Welcome to Turkey situation. In our country some members of AKP explicitly claim opposition is worse like in France. You cant beat a leader with a strong divide.
Well that’s basically why he is running strong in the polls
Le Pen is a better choice than Macron
I am a hard environmentalist and climate change policy tops my political priority. So the most important thing for me is strong support for strengthening France's nuclear reactors fleet.
The Greens are enemies of the environment and humankind.
Oh my God, a sane environmentalist
@@paulcruz168 probably helps that I'm a scientist 💀
Meanwhile macron reopened coal plants last month lol
@@StarryNightGazing same
All pro nuclear people I have seen are scientists
Whut ? Not at all
Its not all of the ecologist french who are against nuclear reactor, its a strong debate
Also as one of the country with the mpst nuclear reactor, we can clearly see the risks
And people talk about us being a laughing stock. Jesus some of those candidates are crazy.
He’s likely, but not certain, to win. The problem is that there are so many candidates that polling at 15-17% buys you a seat in the final round of the election.
I like Zemmour very much, he's that little tweak that Le Pen needed.
Hello Shlomo
You mean like he can handle a debate?
I think you missed a crucial info regarding the "parrainage" at the current rate, most of the main rivals of Macro are struggling to get enough "parrainage" which is the support of a mayor of a city, which enables them to be part of the election, due to some changes on the rules on the previous election, it's harder for any new party to be elected.
Meaning that maybe 3 or 4 candidates that would poll together more than 50% of the votes wouldn't be able to participate, which is crazy, plus the 25 to 30% of abstention that would mean that only 25% of the population are represented in the election.
Correct me if I'm wrong on the comments.
What changes are you talking about? This system has existed since 1958 and the only change in recent years was to make the supports public to give it more transparency. In the end, officials on the right will probably give their support to Le Pen or Zemmour so that their voices are split on the first round and Pécresse can pass.
N'abusons rien mec. Zemmour, Le Pen et Mélenchon auront leurs parainnages
Zemmour’s a smart man, he most likely has the entirety of the needed parrainages, but doesn’t want to reveal it
@@Roman-kl3wk I hope you are right
Hahaha so caricatural the way you presented some candidats
Well, if you compare with the popular primary of 2012, the one of this year is a complete mess.
Algo! I hope that if he wins, it means that France remains committed to the EU and towards European Co-operation in general.
Only two candidates are for Frexit (Asselineau and Philippot) and they have a so little chance of winning that they aren't even mentioned in the video. Mélenchon is for a Euroean Union more centered around social issues then the economy though (he's a left leaning social-democrat, the equivalent of Bernie Sanders in the USA pretty much). Le Pen wanted to put the question of a Frexit to a referendum in 2017 but she seems to have abandonned this idea and is now more pro-EU. The rest (idk about Zemmour) don't seem to want to change the EU much.
Why?
@@yvetteloach8617 Why? Because co-operation is the best way to keep the peace in Europe - this is the reason why the EU was formed. Having France continue to be committed, would make that much easier.
Yey France. I was afraid of evreything turning into a complete mess. Given the comment section, the french have this nailed down to the cm.
Good luck French.
Thank we will need it...
TY i will vote for LePen or Zemmour i think
France has already been changed by Macron.
People now get discriminated according to vaccination status and Macron acknowledge publicly that this was not a matter of science, just a matter of his views on morality.
Also in September homeschooling will be banned from France.
Macron endebted France like no other President before ; civil servants are quitting their jobs ; the system is completely wrecked.
« The french love kicking out their leaders » : it’s so right 😂
Did I hear 35-hour work week😭
yeah why ?