The Presidential Election Has Become An Unpopularity Contest | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Vložit
- čas přidán 1. 04. 2024
- In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on race and ethnicity is a “good or bad use of polling.” Later in the episode, they pivot to discuss the Supreme Court's hearing on restrictions surrounding the abortion medication mifepristone, and explore the challenges third-party candidates face in getting on the ballot.
Website: fivethirtyeight.com/
Merch: fivethirtyeight.com/store
Twitter: / fivethirtyeight
Facebook: / fivethirtyeight
Podcast: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/f...
29:13 great joke Nathaniel. I laughed!!
I choose to believe that everyone else took a beat before also laughing, and then it was edited out later. Because yes, that deserved a giggle 😂
Came here to say this
I lol'd
That felt like a added cut for a reason, I also choose to believe everyone had a good lol at that.
Why should I disclose my race and ethnicity to anyone who's not providing me medical care?
Why wouldn't you?
The USA already have our Races and been knowing that. Among much more about a USA born citizen than we realize.. 💯
@@jakeleisure8326 Because it conveys me no benefit, and risks systematic functional disenfranchisement through congressional districts gerrymandered using that data. Not that the impetus is on me to answer your question, as the status quo is that if I have meaningful information about my race and ethnicity the benefit to me in sharing that information should be made clear before I would do so.
@EvilGenius007 They already know who you voted for, lol. They know where the democrats live and do not need census data to gerrymander your vote away
Also, there have been instances where gerrymandering was overturned specifically because it was done on racial lines. So identifying ones race really only has the benefit of protecting against gerrymandering and not disclosing ones race does nothing to protect against it
26:30 Skip to abortion supreme court stuff
41:45 Skip to unpopularity contest
not all heroes wear capes
Thank you. Can you do this on the regular like the legend who timestamps every LTT podcast? Lmao
Good looking out
One of the most dangerous occupations is private pilot. This is because we are correct to have the intuition that flying is dangerous. It is very dangerous. It just also happens to be the case that there are massive steps taken to ensure that commercial flights are as safe as possible. Some might say we take so many precautions that it's irrational.
A lot of that has to do with helicopter pilots being wrapped up in that statistic. Flying helis is 5x more dangerous than planes. Remove helicopter pilots and the profession is much, much safer
We're in a terrible moment for executive branch offerings. I'd like to think that after this cycle we can only go up from here. But I know better, too. Also, “All rise…” didn't go unnoticed. 😂
It's disheartening to see the presidential election devolve into an unpopularity contest. We need candidates who inspire confidence and offer meaningful solutions to the challenges facing our nation.
I'm Flying High on Weed in My Bed Right Now🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
I wasn't afraid of flying at all, but then I worked in the airline industry with the almost minimum-wage people who do the load-&-balance and maintenance at several airports around the country. Now I should be afraid of flying. I got qualified to load balance commercial narrow-body aircraft in like two hours one day.
7:58 was amazing, perfect unison
@29:10 "All rise." 😂🤣
I honestly can't even name a politician I want at this point 😂 I'd love someone that promotes physical fitness, is pro union, wants a common sense green energy plan (Wind where its windy, solar where its sunny, nukes where its neither), can we talk about raising the minimum wage federally without mentioning how expensive NY or SF is?
Not interested in airplanes.
I put "other" as well - my dad is afrolatino - my mother is white - that makes me theoretically both black and white and hispanic
The point at 21:40 about Cherokee identification is interesting. The thing is, even if everyone answers heritage questions in complete good faith, we should expect these things to happen more just as interethnic mixing and genealogical information becomes more widespread. Most people tend to be able to trace heritage back to at least the mid-1800s, when identification documents became more widespread and systematised. For people born in the 1950s, that means 4 generations. For people born in 2000, that means more like 6. That doesn't sound like a lot, but 6 generations is 64 people (- a bit of inbreeding, which is common) vs. 16 people going back 4 generations. The likelihood that any one of those 64 people is going to have some sort of interesting identity is relatively high. DNA ancestry companies have also made people more aware of niche heritage.
Which is to say, people these days are likely to have small amounts of heritage from disparate groups, *and* more likely to be aware of it. You either need some system to cope with that (probably by getting people to state or rank how significant their heritage with the group is, so that you can disregard it after the fact), to say 'being 32th Chinese and 124th Finnish is not sufficiently Chinese or Finnish to be worth recording on the census', but then you get into dictating people's identities to them...
You could also have a 'hyper-mixed' category for people whose ancestry is _so_ transcontinental, that pinning them down to any neat group of ethnic or racial identities is essentially meaningless. I doubt many people fall into this category at the moment, but the 'Mestizo but not necessarily Latin American' slice of the population is only going to grow.
People didn't really travel to other countries very much 70+ years ago, and there was a lot of racism, so "race mixing" was very rare. Its only in the past 40 years that international travel and dating has become extremely common. Its going to be harder and harder to define "race" as time goes on and people travel the world more freely.
@@poochyenarulez That's an true based on our current racial categories, although there's interesting dynamics with how ethnogenesis and assimilation tends to play out.
'Assimilation' is a bit of a dirty word, but there is ample historical evidence that when groups mix, new identities are born and/or one of the elder ones are discarded.
To use a historical example, many people in England in 800AD would likely have had significant, and relatively recent, Romance/Italian, Brythonic Celtic, Anglo-Saxon and Norse heritage...but even by the early medieval period and certainly _now_ 'English' is taken as a singular ethnic category.
Likewise, you can also get ethnogenesis without mixing as a result of changing circumstances, for example, while Amish people were originally _ethnically_ just Germans with particular religious beliefs, they now arguably constitute a distinct, new ethnic group.
I agree in terms of genetics humanity is going to get more homogenous over the next millennia, and phenotypically/racially we're going to trend towards being 'ambiguously brown', but I doubt people are going to stop subdividing themselves into distinct heritage groups.
My understanding is that in Oklahoma it's kind of a thing to claim that you have some Cherokee heritage, way back, with no need for actual proof.
How anyone identifies their own race is at once something that should be based on fact, yet is also not something anyone should go around checking anyone's background on, because that feels like an invasion of privacy. So there's room for fudging the truth, yet it is also such a real part of identity.
Then you get individual cases such as where that white woman identified as black and worked for the NAACP. Both her parents certainly looked white, as did she except for her hair style.
Also, in the South there are lots of folks who identify as white, who may be descended from mixed race families due to rape of slaves by their owners. (Wasn't slavery just a peachy time?)
It's a complicated issue.
I’m not afraid of crashing in a plane, but I always get sick when I travel by air, so I am extremely germophobic in airports and planes.
They talk about the headline topic of pres candidate unpopularity at 41:45
The Canadian has the quickest response to the weather question. Classic. : ) Love your videos. Also: "All rise" = groan
Still Smokin Weed🎉🎉🎉 and Watchin TV...Hippie Life is Goood🎉🎉🎉🎉
census racial categories mostly function for politicians, so changing the instruments hasn't been priority if the changes didn't identify new politically prescient categories.
Chris Evans be safe and time home how is life day just you and hope his day is good news did my job and see would be back did it on this one day today ok now I can yes you do and thank you now
loved the take on the census - as Americans in general become more mixed-race, it's important to consider that within the census
Become?, it's been that way for at least 40 years.
29:10 😂😂🤣
11:40 it's entertaining watching the difference in reaction between taking an edible and other ways people cope with airplane anxiety. Imo, a low dose edible works better than being drunk
20:33 best part.
Biden, Trump, RFK and the whole clown crew were on my Washington State primary ballot. Go figure.
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
By 1860, the Democrats were the only major party, as the Whigs had splintered into the Constitutional Union Party, the xenophobic Know Nothing Party, and the abolitionist Republican Party. The Republican candidate, Abraham Lincoln, who eventually won the election, can be considered a third party candidate at the time. This election was during a polarized time, similar to what we see today. The main faction of the Democratic Party has now shifted to the right of the Republicans in terms of soliciting corporate money, aligning with the military-industrial complex, and censoring political dissenters on social media. I don't consider the Democrats to be relevant today, as they have clearly lost their way and the historical values they once stood for. My only choice is to vote for a third party and hope that the Democrats go the way of the Whigs.
How often does an election occur that ISN'T an unpopularity contest?
One of the few would be voting FOR Obama. But i guarantee that a ton of voters either abstained or voted "R" because he was the candidate.
How do you think Trump won? Its pretty clear a TON of folks either abstained or voted against Hillary, because she was so unpopular, or those that voted for her, just because it was clear she was the least worst option.
The current situation is interesting in an academic sort of way, but your title is, essentially, "water may still be wet!"
No shit sherlock...
Every podcast about abortion. These guys really love abortion.
52:26 regardless of what we think of him, this seems a bit anti democratic
The entire current electoral situation is anti-democratic.
As for RFK, he can fix it, so an annoyance, but nothing huge.
47:59 ...mostly God bless Jill Stein...
Dislike both candidates. They are terrible options that just perpetuate the problems Americans are suffering from. Both serve the oligarchs and not the American people.
Hippies 🎉🎉🎉 for Trump & Legal Weed Grows in 2024🎉🎉🎉🎉
I’ve got news for the guy with the 60’s glasses: Kennedy’s popularity has less to do with the fact that his last name is Kennedy, and more to do with the fact that we like his policies. He’s popular because of his substance, not his name. And using prior elections to be predictive is not exactly useful. People are fed up with both Trump and Biden, as the title of this video shows. Americans were much less disgruntled by the 2 party system than they are now. That’s why independents are the largest voting bloc in the country. Let’s not forget that the smug self confident commentator class scoffed at the possibility of Trump becoming president.
I voted for Biden and this election I’m voting for RFK Jr
Voting for Biden 💙🔵🇺🇲
@@tedmarley4341Biden is definitely in big trouble. All polls indicate Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are clearly in the Trump column. Now Nebraska wants to go to winner-take-all thus giving Trump an extra EC vote. Assuming he will carry all the states he carried in 2020, Trump has 269 EC votes pretty much baked in the cake. I don't see how Sloe Joe has a logical path to victory.
Difference between Trump and Biden voters is Biden voters know how awful he is, Trump voters still think he's some sort of orange Jesus.
послушал этих ребят и удивился как все заблуждаются. Эти ребята думают что ими управляют люди. Но Землёй давно управляют нелюди.