A Dobbing Strategy Guide for Horse Racing (£20 Profit on a Loser)
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- čas přidán 27. 07. 2024
- This dobbing strategy guide shows you how to identify horses that routinely dob and then set notifications for their next performance. Get your tracker set up here: bit.ly/3b66JCV
Dobbing is a popular technique for in-play horse racing traders. It relies on a horses price contracting by a minimum of 50%, as the example in this video displays.
Timeform is useful for checking in-play hi/low prices and setting email notifications the next time a dobbing selection is due to perform. Check it out here: bit.ly/3b66JCV
Shortcuts in this video:
0:00 What dobbing means in horse racing
1:00 Maths behind a dobbing trade or bet
2:15 How to find horse racing statistics that identify dobbing selections
3:00 Example of a dobbing selection on-screen
7:20 Key characteristics to dobbing selections
#HorseRacing #Dobbing #Trading
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This video explains what dobbing is and how dobbing strategy works with the use of historical data. - Sport
Have you tried dobbing? Did you like the video? Check out some historic prices for yourself - bit.ly/3b66JCV
Caan, I'm fairly new to trading, having come from Matched Betting (gubbed out of most). I'm drawn to footy rather than horses simply because the horse prices move so quickly and it seems easier to focus on footy where I don't feel so rushed. Please feel free to convince me otherwise :-)
@@craigmcmanus2888 to each own. But I choose horse racing all day over football. Simply because I think football is too slow. I don't have the patience sitting out a match waiting for a certain result where's to horse racing it just go one after th other. And I don't trade every single horse race, but during the day there is a good amount of selection that fits that criteria where I can focus on.
It all depends on what you think it's too fast. If you're scalping then the intensity is much higher yes. I made more money and more efficient with horse racing compared to football. After all without being greedy and all we all want to be profitable right?
@@masonridgewell8063 Thanks Tyson, could you point me in a direction to start from? An easy-ish method to start me off? Thanks again.
Could you use betdaq for this as well
Thanks, never heard of this before! Appreciate the actual demonstrations rather than just abstract ideas that some other CZcamsrs do.
Thanks, we try to ensure all of our videos are clear to understand :)
Love the video Caan. I’m using this type of approach currently based on market strength rather than past histories. The strategy works and creating a newer list using the TF info looks a real improver. Thanks again for supplying these videos with such frequency - every day is a school day. 👍👏👏👍
Happy days. I've used different ones over the years, which has then been a problem as some of the sites have failed to offer such functions. Pretty sure there's no chance of that going anywhere with timeform though.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience with newbies like me :) I'm at the beginning of my trading journey, but I've already learned a lot from your vids.
Great stuff, never tried it like that but this happens quite a lot from what I've seen. Really need to start giving more attention to horse racing
Now you have an incentive ;)
Thanks Caan, everyday is a school day watching your videos 👍
Glad they are of use!
Thank you Caan for another great video
Cheers!
Great video Caan.
I aggre that With a bit of leg work you can find horses that have a high probability if shortening in play and doubling down in odds. Good strategy thanks for sharing your expertise...Rgds Paul👍
Sure, with 9 out of 10 runs I think it's clear this example has a habit of dropping 50% or more.
I have a list of 4 or 5 dobbers, usually front runners in 5f and 6f sprints, ping the lids and after 1 furlong, it’s usually matched 👍🏻
Great Content!! Learn a lot from you. Thank you!
lol thats funny considering your name haha. Cheers.
Thanks. Good info.
Love this video and the concept of this strategy Caan. Im still learning trading (self taught) so this is a great one for my armoury.
No problem, thanks for leaving a comment. Don't forget to subscribe for future giveaways too!!
@@CaanBerryProTrader already subsribed mate cheers.
You are the 🐐 great work
Excellent info ... caan ... thanx.
Great will try
Cool. No problem!
Good explanation and a decent looking strategy. I wonder if you can improve your strike rate by applying some more filters on your selections - for example previous course winner or a favourable draw (on courses where there are solid draw advantages).
that's what it's called i have been doing that for months with match betting. i bet on the fav with 4.0 at 7- 9am then go on the exchange and lay at 3.9 and i always do the keep option so if it does not match before then it will in play
That does not sound like a profitable strategy... too generic. Here's the problem, sooner or later you'll find a horse that never gets to 3.9. Just drifts out during the morning and then fluffs the start of the race or something and never gets into contention. You may be thinking you're onto a winner because you have a very high strike-rate but because you're making so little profit per time, on the occasion that it doesn't get matched you're going to lose all of your profit. Just warning you, this won't work over the long-term.
Have you been successful with this strategy?
@@azlondon yeah but I always make sure the favourite is 4.0
Good video; do you look for a specific minimum percentage of dobs from the last 10 runs? I.e. does it have to be as high as 90% or would you go lower? And do you screen for distance or other factors? Thanks.
It's more important to see the trend over a larger sample than anything else. Could DOB 95% of the time over the last 10 runs but I'd rather take something that dobbs 90% of the time over 30 runs for example.
Excellent video caan. Would you advise to stay away from shorter races? Also what sort of percentage of success would you say is goof to back. This one is obviously a very good example but I've searched alot of races and only getting some with maybe 3/5 or 4/5 last races.
With dobbing it shouldnt matter so much. Backing to lay and the like I would advise going above 7f.
Thanks for all your info, could you do this with place lays
Very good video. Just one thing on my mind though, is it possible for the lay price to activate but bet not get match because of liquidity?
Ha Ha nice one I tried this out and worked well for 1st one ....only problem was me making a slight mistake Bet at £20 layed at £20 Result Zero :-) :-) lesson learnt should have laid at £40 must pay attention :-D
Caan, do you ever reverse DOB? I.e. do you look for selections perhaps mispriced low, and don’t have a great running history, so lay first to back at double price of lay.
No. Although there used to be a guy on the Geeks Toy forum called wagonmastergeneral that did very well from it, or so I believe. He was around a long time and seemed reputable.
Can’t hear that term without thinking of Dobin the horse lol 🐎
Haha, a memorable name.
I have backed a few cloppy old dobbins.
Great video Caan, wouldn't be hard creating Bot that kind of trading for ourselves ?
Bots arent my forte, but I expect its quite possible.
Nice strategy I am new to this m still not sure how to tell if odds will get low or higher, Any tips, What if it is matched when you backed , but it didnt when you layed
That's the bust part.... although you could cash out if its obvious to minimise the loss.
Caan, is there any possibility of this occurring the other way? so laying short and halving stake at a doubled back price for horses that travel poorly?
any reason why I should n't use this strategy but be happy to win say 50% or 25% even of the initial back bet?
Getting a horse at 3 to trade 1.5 90% of the time looks a pretty difficult task to me nut what If I laid £30 at 2.0 for a £10 profit?
Any views?
Great content, recent subscriber, long term exchange player
Thinking of buying Carl Traders in running course. Looks good. However I've got doubts, as there's some reputable traders on forums saying that in play trading isn't going to be profitable long term. A bit torn on what to do, as I'm pretty sure it surely must be profitable for some. Just don't know whether this specific course is the right one
Caan - BF's Best Price Execution, what are the Pros and Cons when trying to get matched on LTF lay the field at 1.1 in running, thanks Dan
Caan how do you find these horses via timeform though? Like I can see how you can look at them after the event and possibly 'follow' them, but how would you find them in the first place? Surely you don't click on every horse every day and look through their past price stats? Do you use pattern form to find interesting ones and then start following them?
I would say this just comes with knowledge of how a certain animal tends to run, the more racing you watch the better you will be at identify these horses
Iv'e tried manually trying to find decent horses to do dobbing on, but can't seem to find any after nearly an hour searching. Does anyone know of any dobbing alert systems?
Check out this vid... czcams.com/video/ol1scqJKnXE/video.html
Hi Caan - great video mate, I am based in Australia and am looking for an equivalent website of Timeform for Australian racing that gives the ISP / BSP and IP Hi/Lo - can you please advise if you know if there is one that exists and if so can you please comment with the link - much appreciated - keep up the good work - Legend !!!
Did you find any for Australian ones as am looking for same?
Hey Caan thanks for the tip, just a quick one, how to set to decimals time form information.? Cheers mate!
What do you mean? On the time form site? Confused.
@@CaanBerryProTrader yes is any way to change the odds on web site "timeform"?. thanks for the time taking to reply cheers
Can did be done on IF i just want to earn a few ticks? Assuming i back at 3.0 and want to green out at 2.7 or 2.5?
Also, are there any trends or rules you follow? E.g. Number of horses/entries for that race or dob only when there are clear favourites or something?
Yes. Different maths behind the hedge though. Made easier if you use some software.
Interesting...
Hi Caan I've tried this quite a few times and had some success, but then suddenly it goes backwards a lot even though I stick to the same selection criteria. Any advice to get the strike rate better? Or is it just that there may be long periods where it goes flat?
The more stringent you are with your selection process the more accurate and reliable it becomes. The only problem for some is the lack of selections when you do that a lot. Personally I'd say keep it tight and keep the powder dry when you are unsure.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks, makes sense. I guess i need to remember that the better the strike rate, the higher the stakes can go too and no need for a lot of selections every day
Another good Vid but more for the Newbie Traders that one
Indeed, trying to mix it up a little! clear though right?
Certainly 👍🏻 Keep them coming
Hi Caan. I'm looking at Timeform and all the info you say is available and free to view, appears to be locked unless I subscribe to unlock premium content? Am I missing something here? Thanks
Hi Ian, you just need to register a free account and you get the extra info I used in this video. There is more beyond that for premium but you can get the info shared on the free sub. You just have to register an email (they don't send you loads of stuff).
Caan can you tell me how much pictures are behind on betfair video?????????
Depends on stream... usually live pics are a few secs behind the event on BF. Others up to 8 or so seconds.
Nice, what's your opinion about betting brokers? Is it worth using them?
Not something I'd do.
@@CaanBerryProTrader but what if you are in a country that restricts all betting exchanges?
What do you think about Tiz the Law running from the 17 post? Can he do it?
Sorry can you explain more?
@@CaanBerryProTrader The Kentucky Deby on Saturday. Do people watch it in your part of the world?
Hi caan what do you think about the website copybet?
Haven't heard good things about that one to be honest. Haven't used it myself or even looked.
I registered but still have padlocks. Can't I find the information in the racecard, or just results
What happens to the Lay bet if the price doesn't go that low, it doesn't get matched?
Very good question. By my calculation, anything equal or lower than 1.5 will lose you money. I think you need to lock in a lay price higher than 50% in order to make any money. See my question above, which is...
If I take 2 bets for a total outlay of $60 (bet 1 = $20 + bet 2 = $40), and the most I can win from either bet is $60 (ie: $20 x 3.0 or $40 x 1.5) Then I can only win back an amount equal to my initial, total outlay. Therefore, how do I make any profit?
@@andrewnusroot2754 when you lay a bet the stake is not part of your liability. So £40 is someone who has matched you and is their stake you have offered them odds of 1.5 which is 1/2 in fraction betting . So your liability is half their stake =£20 if the horse wins but you have won £40 thru your original £20 back bet. So if the horse wins you get £40 profit from your back bet but lose £20 to your lay bet liability, 40-20=£20 profit, if the horse loses you lose your £20 back bet stake but have won the lay backers £40 stake, so lose 20 gain 40 =£20 profit. Just remember the layers stake is not your liability it's the odds you have given them. It's all about the maths
I hope this helps you, good luck
I may be dumb so can someone please help.
If I take 2 bets for a total outlay of $60 (bet 1 = $20 + bet 2 = $40), and the most I can win from either bet is $60 (ie: $20 x 3.0 or $40 x 1.5) Then I can only win back an amount equal to my initial, total outlay. Therefore, how do I make any profit?
The $20 is a back bet and the $40 is a lay bet.
The $20 at odds of 3 will give you $40 profit on that horse and $20 loss on all others.
If the $40 lay is then matched at 1.5, that will give a net $20 profit on all horses.
Just got timeform and login
it's not letting me see what your seeing and when I press on locks asking for race passers so do I have to pay for it
When you register for free and verify your email you can get the inplay hi and lo etc... there are extras on race passes but you can get the info shown
@@CaanBerryProTrader Had to redo login and now it works thanks and keep up the good work we need all the help we can get
Can see the high and low for races that have completed, but where can you find this info for a horse that hasn't run if looking at todays horses please??
Do you have to pay for the extra info ISP etc.. as it's saying you have to pay for race cards
Hi Nick, no not at all. You just have to register for a free account. There is other extras on their premium version but the ISP, BSP, Inplay Hi/Lo are all free when you are signed in with a free account (thats all it is in the video).
Thanks Caan, much appreciated
bet lay $140 to earn $20 i think is not very profitable at the long term right? if the bet not cover you loose $140 to earn $20 right?
This comment probably too late to register in the conflab but if the horse wins you don't make a profit just all square.
So surely dobbing is just making a lay bet on the horse risk free?
✔👍
Would you consider using a martingale strategy if your first selection lost.
Hell no, see the martingale video on the channel.
Sure, but I mean if you were reasonably confident in the DOB trade it would be unlikely you would get a long losing streak of trades.
When are you opening a day school - I'd attend :)
Haha no plans as yet mate.
how quickly will this cause you to get stake restricted?
You wont ever get stake restricted using an exchange. They just exchange orders with other users, not a bookie.
Timeform requires paid subscription to view the prices
No it doesn't, as per the video. You just register for free and login. Inplay Hi/Lo is all there. You may be confused with their race passes extra's.
I can get ISP to show but not BSP or in play hi/lo
I prefer tobbing!
trebble or bust?
Caan, I paid for your trading course, should you really be giving gems like this away for free?? 😁
We both know this doesn't compare, Paul! Going to add some updates to the course soon.
@@CaanBerryProTrader looking forward to updates for sure to the course Caan
This seems high risk to me. No certainty of matching the lay and requires a good amount of in play liquidity. Scalping seems more of a reliable strategy.
Scalping is a great pre-race strategy. This is a more logical in play strategy with some useful stats :)
Why is he saying you make a profit if the lay bet gets matched? No you don't. Unless the horse goes on to win the race you 'win' £ 00.00 You don't lose any money but you done win anything
This data is no longer available on a free account.
20 pounds @3 = 40 profit? 😐😐
Yes.
WTF I don't know how I was doing the maths 😂😂😂😂 Obviously is 40 profit.... Luckily today it was my trading day off .......... Not my day to work with numbers and money.
Yup. Getting head around exchange and betting decimals takes a bit. Then it’s just natural
Returns 60 if winner less 20 stake equals 40 profit
3 includes your stake. 3.0 is the same as 2/1