Each-Way Betting Strategy Loophole Revealed…
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- čas přidán 7. 06. 2024
- Follow this each-way betting strategy and how it works as I show you the inner workings, the maths behind it and where you can find good each-way bets that beat the house. It's a loophole they can't close! Follow along as I explain this horse racing betting strategy.
Simple advantage software: bit.ly/3r55vkb (OddsMonkey)
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Timestamps
0:00 Each-way betting strategy loophole revealed
0:55 How each-way betting works - explained simply
1:20 How to win an each-way bet
1:52 This video's formatted steps
2:11 Example of an each-way betting strategy that works
3:04 Measuring value of an each-way bet
3:32 What is a bad each-way race
3:48 Breakdown of defined each-way value
4:30 The 4 options for this each-way betting strategy
6:03 Locking in a profit with maths
6:51 The potential outcomes we have secured
8:20 Where you can find the ideal situation for this strategy
8:50 Each way place terms and changes
9:32 Ways to get your each-way bets on without restrictions
This video is an educational explainer for informational purposes only. Always do your own due diligence and make sure the maths works out! Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Some links within this description are affiliate links. If you click on one of them, I may receive a small commission.
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This video is about each way betting strategy for betting on horse racing. - Sport
There's another helpful strategy video here once you've finished this one! Always win long term: czcams.com/video/3cEdjH4TBh4/video.html
I would want to have a conversation with you about the games
load of bollocks exchange prices are always higher so it dosnt work
How can I going to pay you from Nigeria 🇳🇬
That's what I want to do
I'd had a "couple" of beers when I viewed this video, so I'll be back to take another look when I've just had "one!" LOL
Am sober but still didnt get it lol....gonna re-watch it another 100 times so it sinks in..maybe make some notes etc lol
Defo one for a clear head, George. Enjoy, its a decent one.
Hahaha
You still be non the wiser
Maybe give up the beers
Awesome video. I dabbled with this a few years ago just placing the +EV bets with BOG. After an initial upswing, then losing some of those profits I stopped though. One very important thing that I haven't seen mentioned is that the each way odds are subject to change if there are non-runners. This can cause the each way part of the bet to become less/not-profitable and needs to be considered.
Why did you stop
facepalm
You have done some very good videos over the years, this is arguably the best yet in terms of educating viewers of a very profitable way to exploit a mathematical edge. Fantastic job of breaking this process down in a simplistic way for everyone to understand.
Thanks for such kind words. Will endeavour to share a few more things then, appreciate the comment.
Best betting videos on CZcams! Crazy good! Keep up the good work and hope you had a good Christmas!😁
thank you for the kind words Andrew I appreciate it and endeavour to release more useful videos in the new year. I hope you and your family have a great time too!
Thank you caan always throwing light into the betting community.
No problem, I appreciate it. Thank you these kind of comments make it worthwhile :)
Brilliant video, one of the best betting strategies I have seen explained in a clear manner.
Thanks, Clive. There are more on the channel page in a playlist.
You share such good succinct information at your own cost, asking nothing in return but a like and subscribe. I see value there, but more so for us punters.
thank you feel that's the way it should be isn't it? I'll endeavour to do more like this soon.
This is a pretty good strategy, I used it myself with some variations and it does deliver.
yes it's very reliable, but like all good ones, the sportsbooks try to stop anyone doing it.
Hi Caan - Great vid as always. Just wondering if you can explain option C in more detail. I am just struggling to get my head around the numbers on the "lay the place liability with exchange". Please can you try explain that in a little more detail? Maybe some numbers from your example would help on how to 'lay the liability' rather than hedging. Thanks
No nonsense great video 👍 👏. Your efforts are very much appreciated by me and I hope most of your followers .it makes sense. And I will follow your advice. Very simple 👌 maths but great profit 📈 potential in the long run 🏃♂️..great tips. Bookmakers must hate you...
thanks I really appreciate it there was an extension of this strategy uploaded tonight if you look at the channel page
Loved the video, straight to the point and very informative! Thanks, Caan 🙌
cheers, appreciate it!
@@CaanBerryProTrader nice video. What working out did you do to get the 1.875, because when I do a 1/4 of 4.5 I get less than that?
You forgot to remove your stake (1). 3.5/4 = 0.875 then add your stake back on! 1.875 ;)
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thank you.
on the video the lay was 4.8 not 4.5 so how does this effect the profit.
Hi Caan,
Thank you for this very informative video. Is there a quick method for finding the best definable value in these markets on different sports books or software available to help find them ?
Interesting video. I used to do something similar but with fixed odds Football to help avoid scary fluctuations whilst striking the bets. The bookies used to put out their fixed odds coupons early in the week and keep to the prices on them. Again looking at betting and laying off various games where there was value in such a way as to make a small profit regardless of the result. I managed to do it for 3 months but it was getting so difficult to get a bet on that I packed in eventually. You have to bet big to make decent cash though is the only thing.
Yes I think a loto of people get mislead on this by the media. Successful sports betting is much like stockmarket investing, its a game of small margins over time and limiting risk. The way to speed things up is with staking - which the house trys to prohibit, because they know it works.
Well explained sir thank you for the hint 🙏 big fan from India 🇮🇳
No problem thank you!
Thank you caan happy new year.👍
Thank you too! here's to a prosperous one :)
This is the most unthinkable method of winning. Nice. Thanks
No problem, glad you found it valuable.
Hi Caan, great stuff and filling chunk of knowledge as all of your videos. I have tried to find those price margins working in favour of the punter regarding horse racing meetings and I am useless at this point:) Digits on the cards, so then maths too, work against my potential profit disregarding the event outcome. I mean here the LAY WIN but mainly the LAY PLACE prices and they are nowhere near the ones you have found and presented in the video. I can't target them. Even after finding the value bets there is far too big gap between the traditional bookies prices and exchange prices on LAY sides, so my WIN+PLACE BET vs Liability on LAYS is overall under the line. So I looked closer into the screen in the video and only reason for my failure I am working out is the time of hunting for those bets. Wondering, if I am right(?) Are those "good" differences in prices only visible just before the start of the event? Will be grateful for your answer. All the best !!!
Common knowledge strategy amongst matched betters. Smashed these to bits in 2016
Well done, some are still doing it in creative ways I'm told!
Good strategy providing you can place your lay bets on an exchange.
However, this is not an option in South Africa, but I note the profitability and maths. Well done
do you not have any exchanges at all in South Africa?
@@CaanBerryProTrader we have interbet, but that is a bookmakers exchange and the public can only place a beer but not lay one. Odds are usually better but it's not a Betfair
Hi John I am also from South Africa but I'm finding it difficult to understand the video. Is there a way for you to help me understand?
Awesome video Caan. Is there any scalability with this, as in the more you back (and subsequentlly lay) the more profit can be made?
You can scale to what they will let you have on. When they realise, it wont be much. Take what you can!
Is the £100.45 win lay and the £113.45 place lay related to the difference in prices between sportsbook and the exchange or just related to the commission? As how did you do the calculation for them amounts you put on?
Oh I may need to watch this over again. Em how do you put an EW bet on shop and lay on exchange?
Thanks m8 new to this what is the exchange and how do I bet with it
Thanks 🙏
Hi Caan. Do you have a strategy for picking losing horses? Rather lay than back. Many thanks
Another simple and informative video, brilliant.
Cheers, more like this? You prefer these, Dean?
@@CaanBerryProTrader Your videos exposing scams(investments which are basically a ponzi scheme) and scammers are a great help for anyone new to trading or betting. I have been using betfair since 2004, you soon realise the majority of people making money on the exchange's quietly get on with it. Yourself and Paul (tradeshark) have the ability to pass on your knowledge and experience to help others. Keep up the great content.
Thank you for helping us to get one over the scummy bookies. Really appreciate these videos Caan.
No problem it's my pleasure.
Except you're not. Your bet with the bookie will win or lose the same as it always has. If it loses, you are making up the shortfall from another exchange player.
@@csb7376 lol
Always enjoy your vids...... Previously did quite nicely as a matched bettor, but have done nothing in the last year or so.... ended up with a lot of restricted accounts, which no longer offered free bet incentives. Then did very nicely on footie accumulators until that dried up. Now, I must be missing something here. My understanding from this is that I place E/W bet with a bookie on a race where I've located an edge. I lay it at the exchange. Why does simply placing an E/W bet with a bookie on a regular basis lead to me being restricted? How do they know that I'm laying it off elsewhere? Or is it that some software/algorithm indicates that I only bet on races where an edge has been detected?
Was thinking exactly the same.
Also wondering why bother with the win part. Why not just bet on the place portion at 1.875 and then lay it off on Betfair at a stake value that would guarantee a profit whatever the result.
because you're taking value for a mum that's the only thing they care about whether you win or lose it doesn't matter you were taking a value position in bad each way races particularly on the place section.
Just to make sure I'm getting this:
The strategy is to look for races where the bookies odds for EW places is higher than the exchange. Then place a EW bet on the bookies while simultaneously placing a counter EW bet on the exchange?
Great tutorial thanks. Do you have any tips on finding the “bad each way races” please?
Yet again another quality video... only question I have is where do I get a each way calculater from? I've looked around but can't seem to find one 😕
I used the one in the description link mate
I'll tell you a secret, if you google "each way calculator" you'll find one at the very top.
Interesting video : thanks for sharing.
The win on the bet Exchange must not have any handicap , right ? It must be a “pure” win?
Yes
Please how get that top 1 to 5 or any number on paddy power
Great video. Maybe I’m missing something as a newbie, but why are the bookies concerned about this type of betting (so long as the rating is under 100% and there’s no arb betting)? Whether you are laying your bet off or not doesn’t seem to effect the bookies profit/loss?? Advice on this appreciated
Mate it IS an arb. But only on the place half of the bet.
Great insight but did I miss which particular horse to pick from the card?
In this instance you should have been with the 7/2 shot. Its always the runners just outside the short priced favourites.
You can run the value method all week ( you get a few races every day that qualify) though the variance is massive. You can be down 100 points regularly. As far as the example given then you are crap out of luck. Your only going to get the liquidity to make it worth your while on bigger races at the weekend and getting the 3 bets on at the right price is challenging. Plenty say they make a lot doing this though having tried it it's not anything like as straight forward as is being made out.
I think you must be doing it wrong.
thanks for your smart information...and do you have a best prediction site you use for soccer betting?or whats your recommendation?
I don't personally have a prediction site although there is a video about what I consider to be the best prediction resources on the channel page. check it out this two on the football playlist!
@@CaanBerryProTrader why don't you give your best picks of the day
A really well made video - and some good points but ithere are some serious caveats includiing ; When was the exchange ever equal to a bookmkers price ? Never ! Exchange is always bigger and therefore a simultaneous bet and lay is impossible ! Bookmkers up and down the country are using the exchange themselves and taking a margin where it suits them themselves between their price and the exchange. Betfair commisions are now increasing and therefore tight margin arbitraging is more difficult after commisions . In order to lay your win portion of the bookie bet youd need to hope the horse is backed in to a lower price on the exchange and only then can you strike the saving lay bet
Thanks Tony, I appreciate the feedback. to answer your questions - it happens fairly regular I'm the live shows, that's when the example was recorded and it was the first race I looked at to record. obviously not all selections in the field match the exchange price but your find one or two regularly. Betfair commission have three different tiers available to customers 2% 5% and 8% depending on what bonuses you want, I'd advise 2%. Other exchanges are available. I wouldnt advised hoping I just look for the opportunities intact on what's available there and then, the place markets are more liquid in the final live show too, either way you're onto a winner with this strategy because there's a significant margin in the place section.
Would you say the odds comparison with the place market on these bad each way bets is the only thing to consider or, for example, if the Betfair win odds are way above the bookie odds then does it still take the value away from the bet even though the effective place odds might be value when compared to the Betfair place market?
If the bookies offs are shorter on either their bad value?
Hi their Berry very good video I would like to know how you got 1.875 odds for the each way on bet356. The win was 4.5 odds and the each way was offering 1/4 of those odds making it 1.125 odds. So where did you get the 1.875 from?
4.5 includes stake. 3.5 / = 0.875, them put the stake back on again (1). total is 1.875 :)
great content in all your videos regard trading, looking to purchase one of your video pack courses wondering if there is any coupons or discounts for new customers?
hi will thanks currently there isn't any promotions on going.
Good video thanks. I gave this a try and it worked. One thing I'd like to know is the maths behind the two lay amounts of £100.45 and £113.64. If I can get those I can put them in an excel formula so I can quicky analyse any race. Would there be any chance of the maths? Thanks!
hey Joe if you Google each way calculator there's loads of them for free mate far easier
@@CaanBerryProTrader So there is! Nice one
As ever a good listen and pretty informative
Basically a theoretical approach with short term viability ;
pLS do a video on skys extra place policy , whether it will catch on, the mathematics of losing BOG and the differences in how they treat SP bets vs their generally tight prices
Yes sure, BOG and EP are also useful with this kind of stuff. Will update when I can, Harry.
I'd like to see this as well actually
If you keep hitting the same shops to Arb you will get clocked in no time. To make high street betting viable for Arbing you will have to travel, sometime a good distance, to make it work.
I find that the bookies know what an Each Way Stealer is and;
1. Close your account
2. Reduce the win odds
3. On course, the SP firm only takes into account EW books.
4. Arbitrage means the BF lay price rises to meet demand.
But nice work if you can get it.
Which do you prefer;
A. A bet to nothing or
B. Green up?
Green up, I don't like risk. Only exception is if I see an in-play edge to use the green with, but thats another task altogether.
great video, the only thing im confused about, the only option on the bookmaker is an each way bet, on the exchange you do a bet on placed. what is the difference ?
Place bets are for the place section of the EW bet, because there are 2 sections. The Win and the Place.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thank you for replying much appreciated, where is the best calculator to work out all the odds and options for this video, as i cant find a multi option calculator ?
Hey Caan Berry I really like your content and I need advice from you. I am thinking about arbitrage betting and I want to start doing it. I found a free tool called Arb Adviser, but I want to hear your opinion about arbitrage betting and this tool because you have much more experience. Is it worth it or not? Hope that you will answer my question!
Is that an advert? haha. Arbing is fair enough, low-risk strategy for making a few quid. Just dont get over-exposed on one side.
Madman!!
Remember betfairs terms differ to other sites when it comes to non runner's on the exchange market. If a field goes from 8 to 7 runner's 3 places still get paid. An easy one to miss for the average punter
Good point, could have added that in, thanks Jeremy.
@@CaanBerryProTrader It's a big plus for the no-lay method that you avoid that situation, if you can stand the variance.
What a pity they can't run their site more properly without all the shite outages, it's so seriously annoying, I swear it must be done on purpose, What about Betdaq? Anyone ever use this long term?
You posted a similar video where you went into a betting shop and placed £100 e/w but i cant find it, it was useful.
Yes its on the channel page up the top somewhere.
Is there a Software available that you can use to calculate this Caan?
Free calculators all over the internet mate, just have to search them. Each way betting calculator should do it. Different ways to play it so make sure you're calculating for the outcome you want though as shown in the vid.
Hi mate banging video mate just wondering where you got the 1.875 odds from for the place bet can you explain please. Because I thought it was 4.5 divide by 4. Thanks
4.5 includes your stake, 3.5 is the total return, divide that by 4 and put the stake back on :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks mate for the quick reply that makes sense. So correct me if I’m wrong. For places what ever the odds are say 5.5 or 4.8 etc you have to subtract 1 for the stake then divide the remainder by the quarter or fifth etc and then add the stake (1) back on
correct.
Thanks is there a quick way to find these sort of bets or just putting the time in and looking through each race
Hi Caan, what level of commission are you factoring into this please?
2% it's in the video.
been doing this for a few weeks, been suspended on most bookies what do i do to keep profiting?
Can't argue with the Maths! However I'm intigued to know how the bookies know you are laying off with an exchange, thus allowing then to use the info to close your account? Is it just through their identifying of 'bad' EW races, and your betting patterns?
They don't know if you are, they don't care, they just see if you are taking value. They know what value is... accounts are restricted on value taking rather than laying off elsewhere or winning.
Hi caan I have a general question. What is the average bookie overround on player to have X shots on target markets. I've been assuming it's in the 15% range.
can't say I've looked, it's not a market I play.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks for the reply. Do you know where I could find this info?
Great video. How do you work out 1.875 as the odds for the place bet?
I just found out lower in the comments, thanks Caan
Sorry for the late reply :) another video later you might find an interesting watch.
Looks interesting. Just tried it. £5 e/w on a horse @5.0 . Lay bet at 6.6 - (stake £3.80) and another lay bet against the e/w 2.84 (£4.05). i think i have got my lay bet for the e/w wrong - Horse lost and so i lost the placed stake of £10 and got back from smarkets £2.20 and 3.84 - so i lost £3.95.. help me................
Where do I find the exchange market everything I Google wants me to sign up and pay
there are four different exchanges to choose from smarkets Betfair BETDAQ and matchbook, you can see all of their exchange odds for free without logging in.
Hi may be a silly question but how do I work out the place amount in decimal for bet365 ? Any help would be appreciated 🙏
Two choices, change B365 to decimal odds, or divide the first number by the second.. so for example, 8/15 would be; 0.53, then add one (the stake), 1.53.. that's how you turn it to decimal..
it's not silly at all several other people have asked in the comments if you look at the reply for the calculations
I get the concept but instantly lost in the jargon and convertoing odds to decimal
So in theory if I place a £5 win on a 4-1 horse at say Hills to win £25 I'm then looking to lay that horse for £15 at at least 1.5 at betfair to make a profit??
Surely the major flaw with this strategy is that it is very difficult/ nigh on impossible to lay off the 'win' price on the exchanges at the exact same price you backed with the bookie ?
I'm always on the hunt for an edge, but it's not very often (unless you get a significant price change in your favour) that at any exact moment you can back a price with a bookie, while at the same time lay off on the 'win market' on the exchanges at that price - as the exchanges tend to be at least 1 or 2 clicks higher at all times??
If the prices aren't similar don't do it! You'll find every day there are lots of prices that bounce down to the exchange prices in the live show when the markets are most competative and the exchange is most fluid. Not all though, but just don't play those races :)
Interesting video thanks, was aware of this but did learn some new things. If you use lay technique it will be difficult to get much on due to lack of liquidity in the exchange place market, in last ten minutes there is more money but prices are usually volatile so difficult to do. That said I will have another look at this to see if I can make it work for me.
Cool, more inbound, David. Liquidity in the last few minutes in the place markets is automated so you'll find a fair bit will be matched. You are right though, you may have to lose a tick or two in price to get a few hundred quid on if you're going that big.
Is there a loop hole where you can do a reverse forcast
Not that I'm aware of... only if you find prices above BSP would that be beneficial unless there's something I haven't considered.
Problem with this is the Betfair liquidity, or in the case in your example the lack thereof.
This is great I presume you can do this on smarkets aswell ?
yes.
yes.
Wow that sounds too good :D is that guarantee profit ?
You cant ever guarantee results, but you can guarantee taking value.
Great to see someone genuine wanting to beat the bookies! So if i became really good at this caan could i earn my £400 a week regular and give up my job?
I would never advise you to do such a thing as it comes with ups and downs and wouldn't be for all. However, in answer to your question, I believe some people are doing this as we type :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks for the reply
nice video Caan. can't see anyone getting away with betting on bad ew races for very long online. the gestapo be all over these races, monitoring every bet. have as much as you want in the slots though ....
True, although you may also be suprised how much and often they allow it, particularly in shop.
I've not seen sports books for ages that do 1/4 odds, only 1/5 odds e/w. Maybe some of the books that closed my accounts do like 365 but none I can still bet with offer quarter of the odds on e/w places. Only a fifth of the odds.
Depends on the field sizes...
Do booking shops on a street check your id? Is it possible to get banned from just walking into a shop?
Some do depends on how much you are betting and how often you go in there and if they really want to ban you lol.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks mate. We have load of them in London so if they ban me online I guess I can just go to an offline shop to place the bet 😁
Problem is if a non runner the bet with bet365 becomes a 200 win at probably not great value but then your place bet stays the same on Belfair. So then if the horse finishes 2nd you loose 200 with bet365 and loose on betfair on the place part.
Yes, Jon. Withdrawals can be a problem, have to pick the races carefully if they are near the overlaps.
Guys I’m drunk and I think I got the rough idea about how things like this work. What I want to know is are there any guys on this channel who can verify that this is a serious opportunity to make a sensible living. I want to hear from viewers and not posters. I can see the sense in this. I’m going to read through this myself when I’m not drunk and I’m very interested. I’m not a mug punter. I’m going to have a look before we talk anymore. One thing I like to see is probably people being real xx
Hey Neill, I'm the OP but I'll give you the most direct answer I can and I'm sure others will add to it. This is clearly something that works from the numbers and it can turn a nice result if you have quite a large bankroll and stick to the numbers mathmatically without deviating. It's advantage play. However, the downside is the sportsbooks - they monitor such behaviour (all winning behaviour) and know all the tricks so after a while they will certainly start to ask questions or restrict bet sizes on your account which obviously prohibits the chance to make lots from it. I do know of people who do it full time although wouldn't recommend it though this strategy, it becomes a game of cat and mouse trying to get bets on which isn't fun. As a side-income or top-up thousands do it and use services like oddsmonkey that help them with tools etc. Unfortunately, the reality is - if you're using a bookmaker/sportsbook they will only let you continue if you lose consistently. They have algorithims and traders checking things all over the place to ban winners whilst allowing losers to crack on, the sharper you are and the more positive expected value you take in your activity the quicker they will be looking at you it's just how things work. Using exchanges however is a different story! They don't care as everyone pays commission and bets against eachother. Only downside there is after 1/4 mil profit Betfair slap the account with an extra 'premium charge' which is something explained in other videos on the channel. Hope that helps :) p.s. hope the hangover was worth it!
In summary
The method works
It's more a bankroll builder than a means to make a living as you will get your accounts suspended.
Also you need a relatively large bankroll to make any serious money from it look at the example given you need several hundred just to make a tenner.
Is there high street bet off limits. Never used to be. Placed 20 50 100. Take it 200 is ok to place ? Or more in cash booties. Not gone cash less yet have they high street bookies ?
100 EW is probably max before you get yourself flagged.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thanks Caan
I don't really get what is being taught here.
What is the criteria for selecting qualifying races?
Which horse should be selected in the race?
What should be the odds range or odds difference of the selected horse in the exchange and in the sportsbook?
What is the mathematical formula for placing all the bets to give a profitable outcome, no matter the result, as stated in the example?
To calculate it You can use an each way calculator, or you can calculate it yourself. An each way bet , as Caan said , it s basically two bets in one , so you need to calculate both to figure out how much you need to bet. Finding the right horses is a more complicated matter...
unfortunately can't make it much simpler. If you're new to this sort of advantage play it's well worth your time to re-watch and take the time to digest what's being shown here. You don't see it shared anywhere else :)
Carabao Cup. Liverpool v Spurs. How would you spread ur bets then?
I would need an edge before even thinking about it.
Is this loophole method asking for a bookmaker account to be closed? How many times have you done the loophole on your own account if of course you have done it ?
Remember this - any time you win, your account will be stopped. End of story. Yes I have see the example and in the following upload there is an example to get around the account closure.
@@CaanBerryProTrader what is the amount earnt before account is stopped.? I back inplay football bets everyday , so far I've earnt £2000 in 10days and nothing has happened to my account, I'm able to bet the same amount each bet ten days later, the only thing I can see that has changed is every now and then I can't cashout.... I'm considering buying your trading course as that's something I'm drawn to being the bookmaker sounds good , unfortunately I have no clue how to use betfair so I should learn before I lose money 😅
What about the commision?
It's factored into the calculation on the screen!
The the other thing that can sting you is if they withdraw a big priced horse after your bet has been placed reducing the ew terms
Yes true.
If your bets are losing regularly with the bookie (so you win mostly on the exchange) surely they won't ban you will they? That's what's happened to me this week almost every bet I made (and I did about 30 including free bets) lost at the bookies but won at the exchange!
I really wish I'd known & understood the place gap strategy, especially in the gold Cup though... I'll need to get that sorted in my brain before the grand national!!
PS, first week of match betting this week and I made about £300! Of course that was mostly free bets, so I'm not sure how to maintain that without creating extra "fake accounts", having said that I see there's at least another 10 bookies I've not signed up with yet, and I still have free bets left over too...
Interesting side note though, I did spot when getting on American horse races that I could put extra lay bets on after the race started, because if you are betting on a longer odds horse they are often in the running to start with so the lay odds can drop quite quickly just after the start... Obviously it's a BIT risky as they don't always, and of course there is always the danger of them winning too... This is back to proper gambling of course, so not really recommended, but I had a bit of fun with it while practicing!
Trouble is, if you are winning on the exchange and not the bookie, you are hemouraging massive value in the odds when you factor in commission too. Makes it non-viable. The reason the money goes from the exchange to the bookies when you bet at +EV is because thats where the value is. Doing it the other way doesn't work because you lose through the -EV odds and also the commission piled on top. So sure you can be happy your account stays open, but it costs a fortune.
@@CaanBerryProTrader what's +EV and -EV?
Positive expected value / negative expected value. Have a google of them!
Backing in bad EW races will get you marked regardless of result.
Please come up with videos of football betting.
Sure, will do soon.
I used to do this and earning a tenner was nice work.
BUT
putting £200 on a horse in the bookies soon gets you noticed. (The rest were putting on 20p accumulators).
They had me in as a problem gambler and limited me to £50.
You can’t really explain that you’re laying off on BF!
i smashed these races once upon a time and got restricted from every account - was also the basis that kevin booth used to tip his horses with Isiris about 20 years ago
As I said, they will do that. They're corporations that aren't going to let people sign up and take money off them repeatedly! If accounts aren't getting restricted, you're wasting your time. Its just the truth!
The infamous Isiris I was a member what a character Mr Booth was
where are you getting the 1.875, 1/4 of 4.5 is 1.125?
4.5 is inclusive of stake with decimals don't forget... you need to divide 3.5 by 4 in order to get the quater place return then add the stake [1] back on. So 3.5/4 = 0.875 plus your stake = 1.875.
If your getting banned eventually by online bookies is this possible on the high street bookies Caan?
Yes, if you see this video you'll see I did exactly that!! czcams.com/video/3LQJhcPha4k/video.html
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks Caan, your a top man. Appreciated.
I tried this once, got all my accounts gubbed within days. Probably worked well many years ago before Bookies were so greedy
Ouch, you should try it with some of the newer firms ;)
One of the oldest tricks in the book, like laying the draw hehe. However, still a very good system and I'm sure you have educated a few people with this video. 👍
Cool, thanks. You still LTD now?
@@CaanBerryProTrader I still LTD profitably but the selection criteria is different now than it was 10 years ago, and pretty much nobody including myself is publically revealing the current methods that work, not after the golden egg got burst when the original method gained too much publicity.
U should give us tips on hoses
Why would I do that? There's no advantage there!
The ''LAY'' price on Betfair was 4.6 in your example,thats means a loss,right?
It would have made a few pence difference. There are far better examples most days but this was just to show how it works. Rather do that than promise people the earth and find the best opportunity of the week. Ultimately they'd be disapointed if I did that. I know its how others operate though :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader You suggested a profit of £9.81 using 4.5 as your lay price and a stake of £100 e/way.The 0.1 difference would lead to an overall loss,there is no way any sensible punter would take 4.5 from you on the exchange and pay 2% commission when the 7/2 available with the bookmaker has no commission.
interesting
Defined advantage strategy there :)
What was the name of that odds calculator
There are different types, best to check the outcomes to be sure. Each way betting calculator on google should do it.
Ok being dense but you lost me on option 3. What is laying off the liability and creates a free bet?
Laying is on the exchange, the alternate side to placing a bet on something to win.
Caan,
Please show an unedited video of a ‘bad each way’ race, where you can lay the win element at the same odds as the bookmaker show in real time.
it is in real time. if you want a video making though sure, where do I send the invoice? :)
Caan.
7:2 with the books and 4.5 to lay on bf!
Might happen once in 200 races.
You say 5 or 6 races a day!
There may be 5 or 6 bad ew races but the books always (99/100) keep the win price well below the exchange on these races.
Come on, Caan, he’s right, and you know he is.
Nope this was the second or third race I looked at for an example from memory.
I’m not disputing that. And I’m not questioning your word. Not one bit.
I’m just interested in your opinion on how often the lay price will mirror the fixed odds prices simultaneously.
Did you see the 7:35 Windsor markets? I may be wrong (genuinely), but I’m sure I saw Space Trucker around the 16 mark to lay earlier, when 13/2 top-price fixed odds.
Don’t get me wrong, I know you suggested simply not playing if this is the case. I just feel that this will almost always be the case.
Could do with you telling us what horses are going to win
Nobody knows that, its a false narative created by the media and bookies to fleece you. Play the numbers and find an advantage as suggested.
Surely if the horse is not placed then you would lose all your bet and that’s going to take a long time to recover
well explained but this is just fast tracking your stake restriction with B365 , the account you really need to maintain.
There's only one way to avoid restriction - lose.
I got shut down by Bet365 and Coral online..Why? Simply because I was winning..I bet on things like tennis or darts (no draw) this now takes you down to 50% chance...Thanks for doing this vid.I gave up betting but I hope all your subscribers and yourself take all the dosh you can from the bookies
Its the same for everyone mate. Gotta take what you can and run!
Essentially this is just another way of seeking out arbs between bookies and the exchange, so likely to be a quick route to gubbing / heavy stake restrictions?
just another way of finding +EV bets yes. Unfortunately placing bets at -EV guarantees you lose, which is why bookies don't restrict them! if you're not getting gubbed or restricted you're doing it wrong. To expect them to take bets where they lose money and you don't get restricted is a bit mad too :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader yeah I guess this the downside of the invention of exchanges. It felt a bit more of a genuine battle beforehand, trying to price things yourself to identify where you believed the odds were wrong and backing yourself with your cash - where bookies didn't have the same sophistication / armies of statisticians that make it almost impossible for anyone now to outthink (unless you have the resources of Tony Bloom!) and punters didn't have the exchange price to make it black and white where the value was.
Just wish I had the ability to start fresh accounts with all the big boys that no longer take my bets :)
Can you explain what happens when your accounts get banned.. importantly what happens to the funds in the account, bonus bets or pending bets.
Typically they give you the money and stop access. Bets are settled if already placed, some of the very small operators might try to make life hard with delays.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thank you very helpful 👍 one more query do they typically mail the funds to the address on file or do they send it through the payment/withdrawal method on the account? Hypothetically if you were using a bought account that gets closed and the address is the persons you bought it off can you redirect the payment or do you have to then negotiate it directly from the person you bought the account off?
@@CaanBerryProTrader sorry for all the questions but have you found a consistent way to turn bonus bets to real dollars. I can do it at about 50% provided i find a lay bet or back bet to make it a 0 sum bet, is 50% the cap unless you want to risk not making money from the bonus at all?