The Ukraine Air-War in 2024 - Interviewing Professor Justin Bronk
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- čas přidán 2. 05. 2024
- While far more asymmetric than the fighting on the ground, the air-war in Ukraine has demonstrated many of the same features - Adaptation, attrition, and the importance of resupply and sustainment.
Going into 2024, it's worth asking how two years of full-scale fighting have impacted the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces and how the fighting might be expected to evolve in 2024 as Ukraine converts to Western platforms as Russia pushes to derive more benefit from its significant advantage in airframes and munitions like glide-bombs.
And to address those questions, today I’m joined by Professor Justin Bronk (www.rusi.org/people/bronk), author of a number of notable reports on the air war in Ukraine, including the November 2022 piece linked below.
Obviously, all views expressed by Professor Bronk are his own - and likewise for those views I express over the course of this interview.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Relevant Reading/sourcing (partial as travelling without full access to my research notes):
RUSI Biography - Justin Bronk
www.rusi.org/people/bronk
RUSI - Bronk, Reynolds & Watling (2022) - The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Ai...
RUSI - Bronk (2022) - The mysterious case of the missing Russian air force
rusi.org/explore-our-research....
RUSI - Bronk (2020) - Russian and Chinese air combat trends
static.rusi.org/russian_and_c...
RUSI - Watling and Reynolds (2024) - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese...
Featured A-10 article
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
The described A-10 meme (not fully accurate it must be said)…
/ a10_fanboys_be_like_ig...
Featured article on F-16 training
www.politico.eu/article/europ...
MiG-31 accident
www.businessinsider.com/video...
Example of how widely reporting on Russian FF claims spread:
www.newsweek.com/russia-air-d...
Featured image of PAC-3 manufacturing
talkbusiness.net/2020/05/more...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
I would also restate that Justin’s and my opinions are individually our own - and that he has not approved any of my comments nor vice versa.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:00:58 - What Are We Talking About?
00:01:43 - Prof. Justin Bronk
00:02:08 - The Evolving Air War
00:05:14 - The GBAD Transition
00:08:18 - KIT Systems
00:12:38 - Patriot Ambush Tactics
00:18:12 - Friendly Fire And The A-50
00:25:15 - A-10
00:29:39 - Sustainability
00:59:48 - Closing Thoughts & The US Role
01:01:28 - An Open Mic On Risks And Issues
01:07:50 - Creativity & Material Limits
01:09:42 - Channel Update
Obviously I need to extend a very special thanks to Justin for agreeing to do this interview. He has long been one of the most requested guests so it was great to have him on the channel. As noted in the description, please regard statements by both of us as solely our own (noting however that I only included the A-10 meme in the slides because he brought it up first...).
Also thanks to all of you who've been great despite my disrupted schedule over the last fortnight. I'm hoping that this coming week will mark something of a 'return to normal' but we'll see.
Hi Perun, wonderful guest. I know him from Ward's channel. This guy doesn't play. 👍
Yay, this is the guy that likes Gripens. 😃 Great guest. I hope he mentions Gripens. 😊 Fingers crossed they will be donated soon. 🤞🤞
Justin is ALWAYS a great interview! Great job getting him to join the channel!
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"Return to normal"? What you are doing is above and beyond what anyone could ask for. I would say: -When you are ready. Thank you so much for what you are doing! Regards
The last 11 minutes are as concise a summary of the enormity of how foolish the Western democracies will be if they fail Ukraine, as I have seen.
Ukraine has failed itself. Through failed (more like lack of) mental and economic transformation, disappearing substantial post-soviet arsenal, through rampant corruption and nationalism, bombastic propaganda with no regard for realism, through public humiliation of largest aid donors since day one, through repeated failure to press the advantage over Russians (Kherson being one example), by not enacting full mobilisation, not building enough fortifications, through dismissing western training and wasting donated hardware. You can lead horse to well but can't force it to drink. West has failed itself being entangled with this failed state without enacting proper checks and forcing certain solutions with iron hand - the only way that easterners understand.
“Democracies”. Oldest one of them all aiding genocide.
This guests final argument is a limited hangout on discussing industrial capacity, and on the the cabal of military death merchants that leech working folks.
USA is deep in debt spiral, is de-industrialized, this WITHOUT a social safety net, and record HOMELESSNESS. Will Europe like to be like USA?
Wake up to the MIC endless war game.
Will you strap up and join for Blackrock?
Yea, yea. You know what? Nothing will happen, just buissnes as usuall. Investors will invest, funds will govern money, Musk will go to Mars. Now, delusional person, think what will happen if all Perdun's shit comes true. You die, all die, planet dies. You ready to die for Ukaine, Taiwan, Burundi ? Think it kinda toys and games, yup? Ohh, democracies will be foolish, wow. That's so grave fate.
USA still has extensive stockpiles of old military systems. I think f4 phantoms. A4 skyhawks. Old cargo aircraft. M60 tanks upgraded. Patton missile systems. More hawk aa missiles. And much much more can be sent. We dropped the last WW2 bombs in Iraqi freedom.
The Last 10 minutes of this are utterly terrifying and absolutely Outstanding analysis by Proffessor Bronk. If the US doesn’t support Ukraine it will be a disaster for the US and Ukraine and the comment that we won’t know when we’ve gone over the cliff till months after we have salutary
His comment on allies watching on with desperation at the US and Western countries moving so slowly or not at all to provide support is also accurate, this coming from a east european.
@@alexg7146 100% agree with that.
the West does not have allies ..only Interests..that people consistently forget this is baffling@@alexg7146
I absolutely agree with all three of you, and this comes from a Scandinavian wishing for a considerable increase in both security and freedom for the civilized world. Hence: Slava Ukraini!
@@alexg7146 Same from north Western Europe.
Honestly, it is insane, that a channel like Perun can produce content this good and frequent for us viewers. Thank you.
It’s even more insane that outfits like BBC News and GB News do not publish this material.
@@davidelliott5843I hope someone relevant in the BBC follows Perun.
Do you ever wonder which militaries use this content and how? My imagination runs wild with it. Surely there are some people in some branch of military somewhere who are able to save time by using this channel
Amazing episode... thank you Perun... I enjoy listening to smart people and Justin Bronk is top tier. The "Wests" insanity infuriates me... here's one more... in our Saturday paper, in my hometown of Kitchener, ON, CA, there's a letter to the editor titled: "Ukraine will never win war against Ru"... I'll paraphrase: Uk should surrender the 4 oblasts to Ru because Ru will never give them back...and quote directly: "Let's stop the insanity and start the peace process."
OMG!!...unfuckingbelievable!!!
It seems Ru minions are embedded in all western democracies and they are truly fighting for Ru within our informational spaces... even our national broadcaster is guilty of amplifying TASS news feeds rather than NAFO or other pro Ukrainian channels. I'm preaching to the choir here... but IMO our news (Traitor Carlson aside) must align and reflect the amazing achievements and heroic actions of the AFU in battling a foe we all fear... the emphasis must be on achieving a positive outcome in the most serious task we have ever faced because if "we" fuck this up, as Justin said, very dark times ahead... and I don't want my kids to have that dark future.
@@davidelliott5843 Perun's content is of high quality, but most people are not interested in a slide show. Sensational stories and treating news as entertainment is what draws in most viewers. There is a reason why Love Island was so popular, it wasnt for the quality of production:)
The outline/outlook of 1:03:00-1:07:50 is for me the most important takeaway from this video. For most of us here there's probably not much "new" to it, but having it spelled out so clearly is quite ... depressing. I wish those 4 minutes would be broadcasted as part of evening news in all Western countries a few times. Thanks to Professor Bronk!
Start at 56:00 for a bit of background in Asia and that helps understand why Australia is withholding it's 59 soon to be decommissioned Abrams tanks. There is palpable fear that if Trump wins the new replacement Abrams will not be delivered or delayed years. The Chinese would love nothing more... and Trump would do a deal with the Chinese to make it happen..... the trust level in the Australia Materiel Directorate right now is below basement level.
@@andrewwashere9151 I wonder would the Aussies get some designs of their own or even getting one of K2 from the Koreans. Tho K2 is more meant for manoeuvre warfare in the mountains much like how the JSDGF's type 10s are more meant for the mountainous Japanese Alps and tight clearance of the infrastructures of the mainland Japan.
@PrograError as you know Australia is wide flat and dry for the most part, at least where any enemy may want to attempt a landing. We need fast heavy tanks that out range any competitor.
I find it bizarre that Americans wanting to prioritise their own domestic issues should be considered a “psychotic episode”
@@emhtptcIt's not about that as such. Nationalistic/anti-immigration views are growing in many European countries. It is about the fact that one single person (the speaker) can paralyze the whole system for months.
More detailed:
Here is my attempt to describe how the situation is probably seen by a big share of the pro-Ukrainian audience - that this "secure border first" is only a pretext/excuse.
- Mike Johnson for whatever reason does not want this to be voted on because it is clear that it would pass.
- Initially he claimed the "border deal first" as reason
- The Senate hammered out a deal (=significant concessions from the Democrats) which would bring improvements to the border
- Then Trump says, "don't fix the border, I want to campaign on that in 2024"
- As result Mike Johnson says, "that deal they have achieved in the Senate, is dead on arrival in the House".
US Polls (at least those cited in the pro-Ukrainian audience) say that 60+% of Americans at least do not oppose sending more aid.
If the bill would reach the house, it would pass with at least 70%.
60 bln for the Ukraine sounds like a lot, but it's a small fraction of the US defence budget (
The patriot road trip is definitely playing its greatest hits.
(Possibly) Featuring guest star the S-200!
I'm still laughing at what a joke the russian army is lol
@@Naum96
you can recapture lost settlements.
you cant unsink a boat however...
@@Naum96I dont think that makes up for losing 50% of the land they occupied 2 years ago😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@Naum96cope
Dr. Bronk is one of my favourite war researchers. I recommend his conversations with Ward Carroll for anyone wanting to hear more from him.
👍
I only had an NES as a kid, but I was always super Jealous of Bronk's games on the TurboGrafx 16. He has come a long way since his caveman days.
Exactly what I wanted to write. Amazing episode.
Rught. He just says the things.
Bonkatsu!
Wow the most compelling and comprehensive argument I have heard on the necessity of urgently putting everyone's focus on this war. The conclusion is quit chilling
The US will spend more on interest for its debt this year than defense, and defense spending hasn't gone down.
It has added another $2T in debt since the beginning of its fiscal year in October.
$100B here and a $100B thee, and soon you're talking about a lot of money.
Sadly, the US was too worried about escalating or offending Russia in the first months of the conflict that mattered the most. Had the current administration front loaded the spending on Ukraine instead of trickling one set of weapons after another, we wouldn't be in a position of perpetually tossing $100B a year to Ukraine. But the current administration did, and here we are.
@@wisenberWe could also repeal Trump’s signature 2017 tax cuts. That would take a trillion a year off the deficit overnight at the cost of a bill which economists have determined to have had no impact on the US economy distinguishable from random noise.
If were desperate, nationalizing the health insurance industry would net a further 1.8 Trillion in savings for the federal government that are currently spent on subsiding insurance.
.4T a year really is a drop in the bucket compared to what the US hands out for free to it’s corporations.
@@wisenberThe ghost of Henry Kissinger haunts Ukraine.
@@richardarriaga6271 The ghost of Vindman is haunting it more.
@@wisenberBullshit, republicans have pulled the brakes on aid and they take the lion share of the blame.
Justin Bronk is one of the few people on these subjects who really knows what he’s talking about. When he speaks or publishes, drop what you’re doing, sit up and pay attention. Perun’s episodes are always knowledgeable, in depth and a must watch; but this one, with Justin, is outstanding. 👏👏👏
He’s a newly minted PhD. He had to defend his arguments in front of subject matter experts. He hasn’t had the luxury of resting on decades of laurels yet. That is typically what you see in interviews on regular media, retired experts who are opining from the perspective of history and motivated interest on current events.
Yeah, I've seen him a few times on Ward 'Mooch' Carroll's channel as well. Always incredibly articulate and knowledgeable in these matters.
Justin has easily been one of the very best guests you've had. No rose-coloured glasses or flag waving; he gave it straight up, and it was sobering, disheartening but also motivating. I hope you can have him on again.
The end result was known for anyone paying attention a year ago. USA is a fiat paper tiger.
Justin is a beast. To get where he has gotten in the military aviation consulting/advising community without having been in military aviation or the airforce (of any nation) is a tribute to his knowledge on the subject. When Air Force generals ask you what you think about something air power related, you know what your talking about
😂Gold comment
This is one of the greatest collaborations in CZcams History.
Word.
Its refreshing to be able to hear someone who knows what they are taking about, who is not trying to push some kind of political position. Thanks for arranging this interview.
Wow. That last 10 minute 'Open Mic' from Professor Bronk is spine chilling!
I think this was the most important interview on this channel ever! It needs to be heard everywhere.
I wish every single EU and US citizen heard and understood this. Especially the closing "statement"! Thank you!
Me too, The twisted thing is that it is one vocal minority that is holding things up. If the bill for aid just came for a vote it would pass easily. But the speaker can be recalled by a single member of his party so it’s not even most americans, it’s one dude, his boss Trump, and Trump’s boss Putin.
Which is, as much of Perun's content, biased and patently false, you know :-)
Great takes at the end on the geopolitics. We must urgently support Ukraine militarily.
Primarily politics, not geopolitics.
@@rick7424 we found the one born yesterday...
no the us is bankrupt and has domestic issues. Ukraine can sign a peace deal or learn to deal with it
Thank you. "Despair" is an excellent word for it. As an American, all I can do is watch out political circus with despair.
America has bigger domestic issues to worry about. Why should america send money to a far off land when immigrants and crime is rocketing
@@Theaverageazn247 Because we can deal with both. Anyone who says we can't is either ignorant or a liar. Political games are the only thing that is stopping what the majority of Americans want.
@@stanton7847Last I saw the polls said the majority of Americans don't want to be involved in all these 🐂 💩 spots in the world. The majority also believe Ukraine has already lost their lil spat with their Brother Cousins. And we're not doing anything well at all, foreign or domestic. Nothing at all is going well and nothing at all will get remotely better anytime soon. They completely sold this country out. We'll be lucky if this only ends in a national divorce and not outright violence in the streets.
It's Sunday and the great Perun! And today he is with Dr Bronk. It doesn't get any better than this! Thank you 💛 both!
Perhaps Sunday should be retired and Perunday in its place?
thank you perun for starting this series, i am alone with handicap in sweden, your episodes every week is something i love and look forward for every week, i been with you sense your first defensy video.
Best wishes to you in Sweden… welcome to NATO…. Try to break the habit, and pay your 2%, ha ha! Otherwise Trump is going to let Russia invade! The Europeans are such weaklings. But I have some respect for this weeds because they have real military infrastructure.
Congratulations on joining the Force. 🎉
Finally the Hungarian parliament realised they will be first up against the wall when ruZZia crosses the Polish border if those traitors in Washington aren't dealt with soon.
@@andrewwashere9151 thank you
Outstanding interview. I will be sending a link to US Sen. JD Vance, who badly needs to hear it and come to his senses regarding support for Ukraine.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the guy who wrote Hillbilly Elegy doesn't care what the facts say. He's picked his position. He's not gonna bend.
He wants to use all military power against the cartels but thinks we have no place in Ukraine. I understand this point but it is so shortsighted as to how we maintain good friendships and alliances. I’m a us nationalist but we have a moral debt to our Allies. Europe failed to maintain their defenses and are now paying a price. We are now fail in to listen to and support our Allies and that will cost us.
JD Vance is a lost cause. He’s betrayed our national interests and is part of the movement to overthrow democracy here at home.
@@danielharnden516I mean can't really consider Europe collectively. France maintained it's defences and is sending huge amount of aid. Mainly it's just Germany.
But military aid by Europe now exceeds the USA. Money vastly exceeds the USA now. So think these talking points are actually factually wrong now.
@@Humorless_Wokescoldcoming from a random person commenting on CZcams lmao.
I really appreciate Perun's balenced perspective in sharing facts with genuine compassion for the real life suffering for those impacted by war. Please keep up what you are doing. Your channel is one of the few sources I trust when it comes to information on this war.
Small U.K. has got just 40 Chalenger tanks in working order..., nevermind, they still managed to persuade Ukraine, that they together could defeat vast Russia which managed to defeat whole Nazi Europe during WWII:) It is more crazy than anything else I could imagine :)
Every time I hear an interview with Justin Bronk, I am impressed by his combination of detailed technical knowledge and concise and eloquent passion. Thank you, Perun for inviting Justin. Thank you, Justin for accepting.
Summary with lots of points hadn’t considered re Ukrainian refugees, security guarantees, etc. Thank you for posting this interview!
Sobering end there; hopefully this message reaches those who need to hear it.
If they are choosing to listen. They were not in the 1930s and right now we are being just as stupid.
Even from a selfish perspective it makes sense for the West to support Ukraine. Horrid to think that the chance of survival of my grandchildren depends on how much ammunition is delivered to Ukraine.
They won't. They'd rather sacrifice Ukraine so they can "own the libs"
nothing matters to them besides stupid culture war nonsense
@@davidelliott5843enough already with the WW2 references, it's cringe and low effort.
Those responsible for the delays aren't ignorant of the consequences. They're intentionally using those consequences as a threat to try and coerce policy concessions hostage-style.
Because they *don't care* about Ukrainian lives, and they know their opponents do.
Excellent interview. Four points: 1) discussion of the US role. Both major political parties in the US have been messaging to Europe for the past decade that Europe (via the NSS) would be an “economy of force” effort given the rise of China: Obama with the “Pivot to Asia” and Biden with “China as the Pacing Threat.” Trump (and actually Obama) both called out NATO for not upping their defense spending, so when the NATO leaders all committed at the Wales Summit in 2014 to up their defense spending to 2% by 2024 (remember, that was under Obama, not Trump), that was to keep the US from walking. What Trump (as a disruptor) did was called out the European NATO leaders that did not live up to their commitments, and he is doing that again. The US never intonated it was reducing its commitment to the Alliance - it did clearly message that all must contribute in an equitable manner so that all commitments could be maintained. The issue of burden sharing has been one that goes back to the beginning of the NATO Alliance - so when the European side the Alliance makes commitments and don’t come through (such as promising a million shells for the Ukrainians and fail by an order of magnitude), the US Congress notices.
2) The undeniable fact of massive graft networks tied to Ukraine have also caused major political issues (esp. given the Afghanistan and Iraq experience where billions of USD lost to corruption) - tied to the US, Europe, and elsewhere. Major questions about where US funds are going, combined with active German deindustrialization due to suicidal energy policy and continued European (and others) financially supporting Russia through energy purchases raise major issues in minds of US decision makers and voters. I wish they could be disconnected and be delinked, but they are not.
3) The fact the US Congress has not been able to agree on funding for increased US border security in exchange for passing funding to increase funding for increased Ukraine border security is not lost on American voters in an election year, thus leading to the current stalemate.
4) Noting the 1994 Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances where the Russians, US, UK, provided assurances to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and tacitly supported by the French and PRC post-NPT, in order to gain Ukrainian agreement to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to give up the world’s 3rd largest nuclear weapons stockpile (1,900+ strategic warheads and 2,275 tactical warheads). Failure to support Ukraine likely makes future nuclear disarmament by any future country impossible without far more comprehensive and lasting security assurances (such as full incorporation into NATO-like structures) - or simply strategically impossible.
Ukraine is in the hard fight, and they are fighting a just war against an implacable foe. Ways to help make US aid move faster is to get European (or Canadian) arms factories operating 24/7 (or at least at 2% GDP - no waffling) to provide munitions to Ukraine and jailing the obviously corrupt, such as Gerhard Schröder, who are clearly working for Russian interests. Skin must be shown in the game. This would help set the conditions for greater US aid. It isn’t easy, but countries like Poland, Romania, Finland, and the Baltics (among others) are showing it can be done.
Very well said... I have questioned for some time why Schröder is a free man... he should be sanctioned or indicted of treason or both.
effort post, bro
10/10
Ukraine: USA, you said you would help us! Why did you stop?
USA: We're busy. What about the Germans?
Ukraine: We're dying here, help!
USA: What about those scary Mexicans?
Not a good look.
"Ways to help make US aid move faster is to get European (or Canadian) arms factories operating 24/7 [...] to provide munitions to Ukraine"
Aren't they already doing that?
"and jailing the obviously corrupt, such as Gerhard Schröder"
Is there a sound *legal* basis for jailing him? I think some kind of "bill of attainder" isn't constitutionally possible in most European countries.
Can you really call them allies, when USA has been providing military protecting in Europe for decades now while European "allies" downsized their military. Then as soon as USA stops giving aid to Ukraine for 6 months, Europe all of a sudden is quick to turn its back on USA while publicly saying it can't rely or trust America. Let's not mention Europe's lack of support in the Red Sea. Instead of EU joining USA and UK operation, EU has their own operation only escorting European ships. Why is USA the only one that is not allowed to lookout for itself?
Great guest, informed and with a very clear understanding of the issues.
Thanks, Perun, for every effort you put in these weekly informative presentations!
Mass dying is a desideratum , apparently.
Many thanks from Denmark. The idea that Russia should get something out of this war of aggression is unbearable. Such a blemish on the West. Apparently we can only talk.
And that not even with one voice.
the decision to change to ATMOS (outside of the ukraine-russia sphere of influence) to send all the CAESAR to them was pretty smart imo
Really important stuff, thanks, the point about the implications of the US having abandoned its commitments (along with any moral leadership it may have had left) was chilling. Big thanks to Perun and Justin
Yup. And everyone is paying attention to it.
@@nian60 We might see some changes by summer if the criminal trials proceed and the Republican nomination gets thrown into doubt. Or we might not. I think there is a strong possibility of increased political violence over this year and the next, and that risk doesn’t decrease if Biden is re-elected.
The GOP has gone beyond the point of “owning the libs” and are actively undermining the U.S. domestically and abroad.
If we want to play cold calculus, places in the Pacifc for example might not like what they see. However, places like Taiwan also supply alot more value directly to the US than Ukraine ever has. Just being frank.
Just as well TMSC - the most important chip-maker in the world, has decided that the US is NOT the place to diversify/relocate its factories in favour of Japan, a less flakey partner perhaps...
Just study history this is obvious.
Perun's in his channel, all's right with the world.
Get back inside the F22, Shinji.
Why do you pilot the fighter? Duty? Glory? NCD’s approval?
Without a doubt my two favorite analysts in one place. Thank you, Gentlemen!
So many Americans on line say ' why should we help?' that question was answered near the end.
Not it was not. USA is deep in debt spiral, is de-industrialized, this WITHOUT a social safety net, that Europeans enjoy.
Wake up to the MIC one game.
Will you strap up and join for Blackrock?
Okay boomer.
The more one learns about the complex challenges the Ukrainians have met, the more impressive their achievements are. Centuries from now, people will envy us for living at the same time as the Ukrainians founding their modern nation.
Yes!! Im so glad you got justin bronk to talk about the air war in ukraine. He's EASILY the most qualified person to talk about things like the details of specific russian airframes, their avionics details, and how and what russia is doing to sustain those insanely maintenance intensive platforms.
The details on russia's aerospace industry is the one thing that is probably the most full of misinformation and overhype (su-57), so its especially great to hear some actual facts.
Thank to both of you. Justin Bronk is always intresting to listen too.
Fact based assesments and conclusions that are unbiased!
Exellent!
Just want ouer politicans to listen to him.
The political games in Congress around Ukraine aid fill me with anger and despair. I hate that good people are dying because a few jerks in Washington seem intent on working against not only our nation's stated ideals, but against the country's self-interest. And it feels like there's nothing I can do about that.
If you can vote in the US, you can do something about it.
Believe it or not, some part of the country actually doesn't agree with you or doesn't quite believe what you believe.
Remember that the US has to juggle the Defence of US interests in Asia with the US interests in Europe, focusing too much in one direction would leave the other one exposed, weak and vulnerable
Bet you didn't give a shit when 600k Ethiopians died 2 years ago in the Tigray war
@@pkingpumpkin The thing is they are not even juggling. They are just letting the balls drop to the floor.
The US has thousands of unused Abrams sitting in storage and plenty of spare 155mm shells, all of which could benefit Ukraine. Meanwhile, these tanks and shells aren't going to be of much use in a hypothetical war with China over Taiwan, which is going to be a primarily air and naval conflict, not a land one.
Fantastic interview. I love these episodes where you bring in outside observers. Your channel is the premier source for understanding this war and its implications on the global stage. I say it every week, but thank you so much for taking the time and energy to share your knowledge with us. Hope you're well.
Huge thanks to the Professor for coming on Perun's weekly defense talk. But I just can't help myself having a little chuckle misreading his name as Bonk and thinking of the dodge meme with the bat. Think he deserves a special NAFO fella drawn in his honor 😄
I appreciate the honest assessment of the Warthog. It is hard to hear for a Warthog lover like me.
A very sobering interview.
I fully agree with the professor's take on the political climate in Washington DC, but I think he under estimates how detached the government has become from the people. If you think the lag between policy implementation and real world effect is long, you should consider the lag between the the stated desires of the American people and the implementation of those desires into national policy. We still can't get term limits into law; something that everyone except the politicians seems to agree on. How are informed Americans supposed to convince the lunatics in DC and the disinformed public of the benefits to supporting Ukraine, if every mass consumption news outlet is so partisan that no one over here gets the real truth? It's impossible. People on both sides of the political aisle give me all sorts of flak every time I mention the geopolitical implications of abandoning Ukraine. It's not just like yelling at brick wall, it's like yelling at a wall of bricks being thrown at you. I'm sorry to say this, but the US is currently having some sort of stroke, and no one should be expecting anything from us in the near future. Should we survive, we'll discuss what sort of use we can be in the on going worldwide struggle against Chaos.
Wow…. Two top analysts on 1 video… I need to savour this
Thank you Perun and Prof.Bronk (who I am seeing more and more in my usual channels, including Ward 'Mooch' Carroll's interviews). This comments is mostly for the algo boost and reach.
Bronk is the best expert, by far, in this entire war.
As an Australian, I can say I hear a lot of our own foreign policy people saying things like "We need to accept that the US may not stand for those values for which it stood in the 1990s, and we may be in a situation where we need to think carefully about how we align ourselves"
Thank you. God Bless Ukraine & her people.🇺🇦🇺🇸
Please clip and circulate the closing thoughts, more people need to see this and compel congress to act.
As usual a great video with substance. Thank you both !
As for my take, I think the damage is already great for the amount of trust nations are able to put in the USA about foreign policy. Without a significant change of their political system it's now clear that influencing a few dozen politicians is enough to make any treaty the USA made a lie, and their history is sadly filled to the brim about broken treaties and promises... I would love to be proven wrong and for the people of Ukraine to get the aid and support that was promised to them.
I still despise the fact that LOBBYING is a thing…
Gotta make like NASCAR drivers and have politicians put advertisement logos on their suits
A lot of damage was first done by Bush, but that was more about unnecessary conflicts.
Then further by things coming out during wikileaks, that the US spies on it's allies.
Another nail in the coffin came in 2017, the period from then to 2021 made US poltics seem unhinged and untrustworthy.
After the beginning of 2021 the situation improved a lot, especially at the start of the war in Ukraine. The way Biden called out Putin on the invasion etc. as well as early support made the US look very good. Like really, really good. Both sides of the political aisle seemed to be united as well, in what was probably the first time in a long time. It seemed that they could put their differences aside for a good cause.
The period since then however, with a seemingly 180 degree shift is extremely worrying. The current situation is making the US seem like an untrustworthy ally and it's going to massively affect global poltics and security in the years to come. Regardless of the result of this years election. The acquisition of nuclear weapons in countries South Korea is becoming more and more likely, as countries are shown that the US is unreliable.
Stunning interview. Thank you both.
Too few people talk about how much our ability to deter war with our reputation of defending our allies has been reduced. It's close to nothing now. We used to deter entire continents from going to war using just our reputation while we figured out a political solution, now all those conflicts have been increasingly breaking out.
If you don't want war you need to support the west keeping its promises and the nations close to our borders (due to obviously looking weak if we let those be attacked). Ukraine is THE symbol as to westerns weakness and lack of care. Turn that around and we can turn this situation around. Sit on our laurels and guarantee war across the globe.
Hear hear... well said... and then there's the upcoming Olympics... which we need to start talking about... authoritarian dictators love Olympics games.
Spoken like a good lil Neocon Boomer. Write a check and make a big donation to Uncle Joe if you wanna a fund this stuff so badly. There's literally nothing stopping any of you from self funding these wars, but you won't spend YOUR money, just everyone else's.
Perun, a thank you to yourself and Professor Bronk.
Thank you Perun for featuring Dr Justin Bronk. I search for vids of him every week and getting an hour of you both is giving me deep intellectual satisfaction :)
Thank you sir Justin Bronk. You are right, we must stop P. there and now. Otherwise this game goes on and on and on...
Weekly perun presentations are always insightful 😊
Bronk's final comments were sobering. But they were not surprising. The West needs to pick up its game. Fundamental problem is: The West is just too comfortable. Time to wake up.
Justin always seems to provide excellent insight and factual representation on military matters. I try to listen to him on different channels whenever I can! Thanks Justin for being on Perun! Way to go Perun :)
A stimulating if depressing conversation. I was a Republican once, a long time ago. Not anymore, never again
I used to like 90% agree with them, other then the their 🏳️🌈 rights stance. Now the party that once loved America is licking russkiye boot, and deliberately sabatoge border security. It was going to pass until lord dump told Republicans "no border deal".
Always awesome to listen to Professor Bronk,coupled with Perun is one of the best I have ever seen,thanks
Finished watching this one just now. Fascinating! And, frightening to hear the assessment of the major negative impacts on the reputation of the USA of their current political games.
All fun and games until the last response. Usefully sobering and certainly worth repeating that last question.
That open mic bit at the end sent chills down my spine. 🥶
An excellent interview. I wish I was seeing this content in the mainstream media in Australia.
As always a fantastic video. The thing that has always concerned me, in the UK, is the total lack of deep munitions store. I'm not even sure we could repeat a Falkland Islands recovery the cupboard is so bare.
That’s peace time economics for you, no demand for ammo = less ammo
@lorenzooliveira1157 It's also the UK wasting £100 billion fighting two unnecessary long wars, and also procurement incompetence spending billions on platforms that don't work, or we don't have the manpower to operate like the carriers.
So good it’s worth listening to twice! Excellent guest, so high quality it worth a second listen.
Two of the best thinkers on this topic, together? Yes please.
Im just enjoying, nothing to say but got to comment for the algo. Thank you Perun and Professor Bronk ! I love these interviews.
The quality, frequency and overall consistency of your uploads is insane.
Excellent interview - superbly insightful perspectives from Prof. Justin Bronk, on the progress of the war and the support needed by Ukraine from the West to defeat Russia decisively.
I am always impressed with your material, great interview. This was a very eye opening and somewhat different take on the common narrative. The time-distortion aside was well executed.
thank you both.
very clear message.
and congratulations to the 500k!
Thank you 💛 again Perun!!!!
Thanks, Perun and Justin!
Excellent interview, excellent expert! Really happy you did this! However, I couldn't help myself, I gotta help Prof. Bronk out here - the answer to "why are you spending your budget on the A10" is, of course, "Because it goes BRRRRRRRT!"
And it was made to thrash the Warsaw Pact. Yes i'm that old !
OOOOOh, more industrial production info. HOOORAY. We actually do like this content.
Yes, make more stuff. In my factory.
Woohoo! Perun and Bronk in one video! This is gonna be good!
Thanks! You expanding analysis using experts and chunking the elephant by pieces) Your videos are part of my week routine!
1:00:01 “ready production”
If Spain or Finland or anyone else wanted to buy excess weapons from US supplies or production to gift to Ukraine's, I doubt there would be a problem.
Come on now, their local markets have to benefit from this spending too. Don't let the lecturing of the US on how important Ukrainian lives are fool ya, Euros have their own military industrial complex to feed.
I think that there has been too little thought on what a Russian "victory" would look like. I don't think Russia has the troops to occupy Ukraine without substantial Ukrainian cooperation. Sanctions are unlikely to be removed any time soon (2014 sanctions are still in place) and nearly all production (what little there is) depends on western equipment that cannot be serviced and will break down. Commercial flight is a good example. Further more, even in the absence of official sanctions it is hard to believe that anyone would like to be paid in roubles, invest in a country that steals foreign assets to give to friends of the regime, or buy gas and oil from a supplier that may close the tapps at will...
In short, Russia can't win even if it wins on the battle field...
Wagner got already control of gold mines in Sudan, Chad, Niger and Mali. While nobody wants ruble, everyone would be more than happy to be payed in gold.
When it comes to oil and natural gas. All Russia needs to do is start a conflict that takes some oil producing country out of the market. The moment the price goes over 200$, it won’t matter how unreliable partner they are. They will sell.
And since middle east is generally such stable place, it will be really hard to get some random guerrilla group and arm it with guns to cause disruption. I mean it’s not like Iran managed to close quarter of global trade by giving few rockets to bunch of fighters in Yemen.
When it comes to occupation of Ukraine. Do you really believe that they will just stand there and get themselves slapped by resistance like Americans in middle east? They will:
1. Cause refuge wave into Europe to destabilize it.
2. Deport people in different parts of Russia to break their cohesion.
There won’t be any coherent people group to resist.
What will be left will be demoralized group that will be mobilized into meat-grinder against NATO. It will be tested against some easy target, probably Baltics to see whether article 5 will be fulfilled with such fervor as support to Ukraine. If it will be the same sh*t, with everyone just sending strong words and maybe like 30 tanks after 1,5 year of fighting, then whole eastern flank of NATO is gone.
And again. People in eastern flank of NATO will be mobilized and sent against west flank.
Like seriously. European campaign in Libya had problem with lack of smart bombs. US needed to help. And that was 5 million country. In middle of civil war. Where European countries stood against just one side of the conflict.
How exactly are you imagining this conflict? In Ukraine, heavy equipment is destroyed by thousands. And European armies have dozens or hundreds of those at best.
So in case of conflict. European air power utterly destroys Russian attack with superior technology. Where they bomb all their things. And destroy hundreds of Russian tanks. And… and then what…
When those hundreds of smart bombs will be spent, and new hundreds of Russian tanks will move forward, then what?
How it will be different from current time in Ukraine? Russians lose liek 50k soldiers in some city, until Ukrainians spent all their ammo, and then Ukrainians have to retreat?
Do you see any country in Europe to be willing to lose tens of thousands of soldiers? Like I can’t see people in my country to be willing to do it. They will just surrender. And the domino will be falling.
Maybe Poland will be hurdle, where they are big enough, with historical attitude of not really liking occupation. They might make similar resistance like Ukrainians.
Which is why Russia winning is extremely dangerous, when a country is plagued by issues like you listed, it’ll have to continue its war machine to keep the population focused away from those issues. Russia would have to go to war again, possibly very shortly after a victory in ukraine. Small Baltic states or other smaller nations bordering Russia will be at huge risk, whether they are a member of NATO or not. NATO leaders existential fear of nuclear escalation honestly gives me very little faith in NATOs commitment to its smaller alliance members.
@@stafer3new Russian tanks?? Russia has high production due to Soviet stocks, their ability to produce new ones is a quarter to a third of what they produce on paper, as of now they are half way through those Soviet stocks if you go by satellite photos. In another two years those stocks will likely be empty and production will drop massively. In a protracted conflict with NATO, they will run out of steam and collapse. Your point about oil is solid though, even though EU has sanctions on Russian oil we are still buying which is mental
Thank you gentlemen for spending the time and effort to appraise us armchair warriors of the subtleties of this air war. I’m still surprised that Russia didn’t achieve complete air superiority within days considering the asymmetry of the relative size and sophistication of the air and ground assets. Clearly we have a lot to learn from the Ukrainians who have managed to fend off a massively superior force by intelligent management of scarce assets
“Intelligent management of scarce assets”? Ukraine is notoriously corrupt and has pissed away much funds, through said corruption.
As bleak as it is, thank you for the insights!
One technical request: would it be possible for the non-native speakers (and probably those with subpar hearing) to ask your intervewees to not sit in a small room with blank walls? The reverb made it hard to understand Prof. Bronk and the autosubs only helped a little.
+1 for this, it could also be much better with just a bit of work in a software like ozone or even the default dialogue improver from inside Da Vinci Studio, hope you'll consider it Perun, it's all too important, it's really worth the additionnal 10mins spent making the sound viable.
Ukraine could have had at least a dozen retired RAAF F/A-18A&Bs upgraded to about a C/D level with new center barrels, any aircraft that’s undergone HUG 3.2 but for whatever reason, it was declined. 🤷🏽♂️
Their head of airforces was quoted as saying “we don’t want your junk”. This does match the often commented on sentiment that the Ukrainians are not behaving in a grateful manner for the weapons they have been supplied.
I suspect this is why Australia isn’t supplying much support anymore.
@@XxBloggsthere is no point sending junk, it just gets in the way and at worst gets people killed. It doesn't achieve anything.
F18s are training intensive, it would take at least 6 probably 12 months to work up ground and aircrew to full combat readiness. They would also need supplies of as pares and munitions. Without lots of EW support F18s would also be very vulnerable in this combat zone.
Australia is actually providing lots of support, including ammo, IFVs, PADS and AWACs.
What the war highlights though is depths of stockpiles and reserves. Like most western countries Australia doesnt have enough, and additionally has a woefully inadequate industrial mobilisation policy.
The provenance of that comment seems suspect as Ukrainian officials for 18 mos were begging for any Western fighters and
I've seen statements from Zelensky and the head of the UKR AF specifically expressing interest in the Aussie F-18s and specific statements from Aussie reps deflecting and trying to blame the US for not granting permission.
My guess is that the Aussies didn't want to get stuck w/ responsibility to fixing up the out of commission planes and training UKR pilots - though I always thought that involving US Aggressor company contractors as an intermediary to effect the transfer, rehab and training represented a viable solution. But for the 1st year of the conflict when there was lots of free $$ floating around that resulted in Slovakia for example getting $1B in credits/ offsets for 13 unflyable MiG 29s - Biden was still saying that ANY high-end US assets in the way of fighters or tanks etc. was too escalatory.
Safe to say there has been incremental escalation on both sides and by lots of parties. @@XxBloggs
Well RAVN Aerospace supposedly had bought 46 of the retired legacy hornets currently housed in RAAF base Williamtown. They were willing to “on-sell” some of it to Ukraine providing that the US Government/military gives them the green light because of certain intellectual properties belonging to US.
It wasn't up to RAVN. I'm quite sure they'd have been happy to act as a middleman and take a fee. Unfortunately, their acquisition and any further transfer to Ukraine required signoff from both the US and Australia and it's not clear either was on-board with the 2nd transfer to Ukraine. RAVN & Australia got screwed as that deal would otherwise have likely gone thru - but didn't because nobody in Australia or the US govt wanted to answer questions as to why the planes were good enough for Adversary air use, but not Ukraine's existential needs. @@PlaylistsRUs
Babe! Gonna be busy for about an hour or so! The Australian defense analyst power point dude just dropped a new vid!
Babe, have you seen the lube? It’s not in the garage!
Excellent interview Perun! Well done!
Excellent interview. Really interesting. It will require another listen in a couple of days.
This whole political circus in DC is making me ponder if the Nazis could've won the World War just by waiting 'till some US politicians got bored in helping their allies and let the Britain starve into surrendering. And maybe only realizing what they were doing after the entire Europe had succumbed under facist rule.
But you do not know the 'Secret War' of Churchill and his agent in the U S trying to persuade the Roosevelt govt to join in. Do some homework on ......? Secret stuff! (William Stephenson)
That was a depressing end with a vital call to act. I don't think many channels or people are talking about what would happen if Ukraine looses. People seem to think as a military power that Russia has been exhausted, but that isn't exactly true. Especially if they fully take Ukraine with its natural resources, they already have the most important parts. The outcome of this war could see Russia fading away as a threat to western democracy or turning into a massive problem for the free world. Ukraine losing this war will only make things escalate more in the future when Russia has had time to rearm and feels emboldened by NATO's lack luster response and meager sanctions. We need to act now before the war reaches us.
Congratulations on 500k and rising🎉
Excellent interview! Keep them comming!
Professor Bronk raises an uncomfortable point near the end: What it looks like to allies when the United States says "we'll support you no matter what", and then doesn't over internal political wrangling. I doubt one in a hundred Americans think about it, but America constructed a world after WW2 that means big chunks of the rest of the world RELY on them in a very "we're going to die if you don't help us". Every time America fails a promise like that, it adds up.
The US hasn't failed anything. Yet. It's been delayed by children throwing temper tantrums.
The US never officially made such a promise to Ukraine, though. But most of Europe did break their promises to spend to NATO standards on defense for the past couple of decades which is why they can't handle Russia, a backward state with a GDP similar to Canada's or Italy's, on their own, and are still hopeless without massive US aid even after two years of war. And the US has other critical priorities it has to spend on in the Pacific, the Middle East, and its own border.
Sounds like the rest of the world should remember who lets the food and oil go through the trade lanes
@@timthetiny7538 It IS the catch-22 of the US position: If you are the good guys, you're expected to be held to a higher standard.
That means not acting like a pirate ourselves, but it also means the rest of the world can take advantage of that, whether to take advantage of the free protection, or (in Iran's case) be free to operate in the knowledge we will respect the sovereignty bu not sinking or taking their spy ships, destroying their navy, assassinating their leaders via smartbombs...oops, we kind of broke that one, but the point is there are spoken & unspoken rules. "We are free to engage only if they engage. You can do what they do", to quote a movie.
@@MM22966 perhaps we should begin charging.
1% of the annual value of oceanic trade
I appreciated that Bronk didn't go entirely into U.S. partisan politics at the end and mostly laid out his case, I would take exception to his statements about Europe providing more aid as Europe not paying enough for their own defence is the entire reason they're in this situation to begin with.. Frankly, I don't think people trying to turn the Ukraine war into a partisan issue does anything but hurt the cause, most American's are war weary due to the Iraq and Afghan wars so talking anyone in the U.S. into most foreign issues is an uphill battle to begin with.
Minor quibble on the A-10, I know there are budget limitations (another much bigger issue), but I would have thought the case for sending A-10 was; 1. They are fairly easy to fly with simpler controls than other aircraft (The USAF never invested much into A-10 upgrades) making them easier to convert to, 2. they are made to operate from rough airstrips with small maintenance teams like the Gripen,, 3. there are like 100 available stored in good condition that can be sent quickly. It was interesting to see Perun and Bronk come at that from a completely different direction, but I was surprised none of those issues came up.
It seems theres still a fair few foreigners that seem to have this almost cartoonish view of Americans. They still think we just all universally love war and being the global policeman.
@@chickenfishhybrid44Yeah, I have often had the same idea about Europeans in particular. I think spending 70 years being protected by the U.S. gave them the luxury of disconnecting from reality when it comes to defence, particularly so after the 90's and the end of the cold war. America is an inherently inward looking, anti-military, anti-foreign entanglement country, the second half of the 20th century is very much a fluke.
Ehh, Bronk definitely went into a classically cosmopolitan argument about U.S. politics. He obviously doesn't care by his omission about American's views and positions regarding the flood and chaos illegals are causing the U.S. interior. The situation being more obviously important to Americans than the Ukraine war happening half way across the world. Besides, it wasn't the U.S. that lobbied for Europe to be wholesale dependent on U.S. defense while their own citizens enjoy an immense social safety net at American tax payer expense. The doom and gloom he presented is however very true but its not going to sway policy officials in Washington without taking to account the whole Republican position behind holding all foreign aid until the house's border policy it passed.
agree with your EU military funding comments. Re: A10, it has never operated in contested space and would be toast above 200 feet in ukraine-hence, nearly useless. I thin sending the F117a would be interesting as it could operate against ground targets near the front above MANPAD altitudes.
@@Theguyinthefez 100%, yep
Amazing video, thank you and the team for all the hard work!
Finally another episode worth watching! Love his interviews with Ward Caroll and with Bismarck.
I am surprised how much potential power Professor Bronk gives to Russia.. I am not so sure that Russian military is more powerful today than it was prior to the invasion.. Their tank, aircraft, artillery and missile inventory is vastly inferior than they were 2 years ago.. Their economy is much worse than it was 2 years ago. It would be an understatement to say I disagree with Justin... A lot of his predictions are based on nothing, vaporware, pure speculation.. Of course that doesn't mean we shouldn't double down on helping Ukraine, just the opposite..
And lastly I disagree with Justin that Europe alone can't supply Ukraine.. It's just a matter of political will... Hell, we are 400 million strong with 25 trillion$ economies.. And you're telling me we couldn't break the gas station known as Russia? Come on...
The reality is that Russia is capable of learning, and adapting and is now on a full war footing, producing vast amounts of equipment to replace some of its loses, along with receiving aid from North Korea, Iran and China. Look into how many tanks they are producing each month, how many aircraft. Meanwhile Europe and the US are still in a peace time stance, yes we can outpace Russia, but only if we also go to a war footing. Politically, this will never happen, unless something drastic changes.
the united states spends 3.5 percent of GDP on Defence.The EU spends about 1.6 on Defence so yes we in the states are going to talk about how much we spend in Ukraine also keep in mind that the number of people in the states who think that we should leave NATO is growing
GDP on defence does not equal gdp spent on Ukraine. Europe spends more of its gdp on ukraine than the us does. In fact, the us is fairly low on that list.
the EU has spent 96 billion on Ukraine the US has spent 113 billion yes the US has a higher GDP 26.2 trillion to the EU 15 trillion but that is still a lot of money that could be spent on other things @@Roggay47
Excellent!!! Thank you so much!!!
The preparation you do for these interviews really shows. They have their place but a lot of these kinds of collabs are lengthy podcast style yapathons, it's great to see something so focused.
Scrolling through the top comments and all I see is cheers and smiles for a new perun video and stupid S*** like that. It's extremely scary to see that even people who closely follow military topics are treating this war something as something like their favorite tv show or sport. Everyone needs to watch the last section of this video multiple times until it really sinks in how serious this is. The worlds failure to take a lesson from history here does not point to a miraculous Ukraine victory, we are almost step for step mirroring the path that will take us to WWIII.
(Me who lives south of the equator) what lessons should I learn from the failure of the North that can't be derived from the wars that happened here in the past?
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 Drones are in. Helicopters and surface warships are out. No one laid out dense enough minefields in the past. Pretty big changes.
I did watch. Other than screaming at my politicians, what else do you want me to do? Hijack a fighter jet and bring it to Ukraine? Even if I got past security I can't fly fighter jets. I am 340 kms from Königsberg. The orcs can fly here in 25 mins. Don't think that a "cheerful" commenter doesn't know how serious this is.
If there is man, there will be war.
50:40 nope, it is totally possible for Europe to be shouldering more of the burden concerning Ukraine, right now, while still failing to shoulder sufficient burden overall.
Yes. Thank you.
Thankyou, love hearing from JB
Great insight from Professor Bronk. Thank you, Professor, and also Perun.