The Ukraine War in 2024 - The Military and Economic Balance of the Long War
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- čas přidán 1. 05. 2024
- It's long been understood that the war in Ukraine will likely be a long and hard one, determined as much by production, supply, economics and political will as well as the skill and sacrifice of those fighting it.
But despite that realisation, the transition of the war into its third year of full-scale fighting still represents a bitter milestone, and while the front has seen some movements recently and the year is likely to see a number of offensive actions - at a strategic level, the lines are moving at a glacial pace, and often only when the supply situation allows.
By popular vote - today we're going to look at where the war in Ukraine stands in 2024. We'll explore ammunition production and supply, the economic health of the countries involved, some of the trends in terms of the way the fighting is evolving and put together what predictions we can for the coming months.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Relevant Reading/sourcing:
Ukraine territory control maps generated using deepstatemap.live
Covert Cabal on Russian artillery storages: • How Many Artillery Doe...
Previous videos referred to:
Russian Defence Production: • Russian Defence Produc...
How Wars End: • How Wars End - Negotia...
Political Endurance: • Exhaustion, Politics &...
Commodity pricing graphs generated using tradingeconomics.com/
Estonian Ministry of Defence: A military Strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat:
kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/d...
Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds - Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese...
Sam Cranny-Evans
rusi.org/explore-our-research...
Dr Lester Grau & Charles Bartles - The Russian Way of War
www.armyupress.army.mil/Porta...
Featured and example reporting on covered issues:
Medvedev and Russian wargoals:
www.cnbc.com/2024/02/22/russi...
ria.ru/20240222/medvedev-1928...
kyivindependent.com/medvedev-...
Russian Defence Production:
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Putin on Wargoals in 2024
www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1....
Russia/Ukraine has already won/lost and/or can't win/lose:
www.politico.eu/article/ukrai...
www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/op...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5...
Macron 'not ruling out' troops being sent to Ukraine
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Sweden joining NATO
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Defence Production & the 800,000 rounds of Petr Pavel:
kyivindependent.com/kuleba-eu...
www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/20...
Morozov & Avdiivka
www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:01 - What Am I Talking About?
00:01:48 - The Phases Of War
00:05:24 - Battlefield Trends And Adaptations
00:10:15 - Objectives And "Winning"
00:16:27 - Economics
00:25:18 - Production
00:40:52 - Losses And Pipelines
00:53:06 - Force Quality And Issues
01:00:08 - Reflecting & Projecting
01:02:48 - Channel Update
By popular vote, here we are. One challenge with covering Ukraine is that there can be a lot of pressure to express confidence about how it will end. That's hard enough with any war, harder still with one like this one where the margins are comparatively thin and the number of potential wildcard factors is so high.
After recording this, I thought it might be worth adding a reflection in a comment.
I think the biggest trap in 2024 would be to think of this war as 'settled' in its outcome. Russia's materiel resources at this moment are greater than Ukraine's but not infinite (as we explore in this video) and their way of war so far has been inherently more resource intensive. Western economic power is much, much greater than Russia's - but it's willingness to convert that economic power into support for Ukraine is uncertain. And that's before you start considering more battlefield centric factors.
Back in March 2022 I argued this thing was closer than it appears and that the outcome was uncertain. It's rather sombre to think that two years and hundreds of thousands of damaged or destroyed lives later, both of those statements likely still hold true.
Your hard work is much appreciated, Perun 🙏🏻🙏🏻
Thank you for all of your work. You have been great in educating me about these topics and the world.
Thx Perun for the TL/DR and unbiased journalism.
Hey Perun, I noticed you speak a lot faster now which makes it hard to concentrate on what you're saying. Unfortunately .75 speed is too slow to fix it, I liked your original pace from 2022. Thanks for making these vids.
It's refreshing to see your serious and realist approach where everywhere else you have mostly one sided talking points
It's truly insane that warfare in 2024 is a mix of Verdun 1916 and the Terminator universe in 2029.
The more things change the more they stay the same
It’s the current technology that’s the problem. Hard to carry out maneuvers when a drone is gonna spot the entire attacking force before they even get to their jumping off point, add trenches, mines, FPV drones, modern anti-tank weaponry and it’s no wonder both sides are having a hard time advancing.
Sounds like something out of Warhammer 40k.
@@BruhmomentMomentovik It also doesn't help that both countries are better at air defence than air superiority when air supremacy is one of the most offensive ways to wage war.
@@BruhmomentMomentovik don't worry, the army already has working prototypes for photonic and IR cloaking
There could be an invisible drone twenty feet away from you right now
(There's also a style of cloaking where it basically takes in the light fed in by one side and broadcasts it out the other, so it just looks like its environment from any angle - i think these are in use in the Polish border iirc)
"Mussolini-style relationship with a lamp post..." - man, those one-liners are devastating... :D
"Doing a proper assessment probably means more than looking at lines on a map" William Spaniel catching strays
Russian army is a complete and utter joke😂
Given all those Mussolini copy cats lining up this one liner needs repeating.
@@luvpump171 As a former caterer I can assure you we've all had this dream.
@@bassalomons2082We got a man down!
"Doing a proper assessment probably means more than looking at lines on maps." You hear that? It's the sound of William Spaniel having a heart attack.
Good one 😂
that dude is more interested in selling his pisspoor books than delivering factual information
Arguably not though! War is quite simple, the winner makes territorial gains.
@@camorraII1 if your understanding of war is that of a 3rd grader then yes, war is simple.
Actually I think it is a friendly aknowlidgement of another youtuber. It wasn't really critisism, as William Spaniel uses the "lines on maps" as a metaphor for a lot of analytical aspects. Watch his latest video on Taiwan, where the lines represent degrees of autonomy - which of course isn't really measured by lines on a map. (Well, there can be some correlation, but not necessarily. That's why it's funny that he uses a map of Taiwan as a background wallpaper in his latest video analysis.)
A note on 155mm vs. 152mm shells, I watched a video from Garand Thumb where he interviewed a couple of English speaking volunteers that had been in the Ukraine foreign legion. One of the most fascinating takeaways was that the 152mm shells were not fragmenting effectively. They would break into a few large pieces because their steel had not been properly hardened this had the effect of seriously reducing the fragmentation pattern and lethal effects of the shell. These men claimed that they had been within 50 meters of 152mm impacts this surprised Garand Thumb who has personally seen impacts from 155mm and hitting within 50 meters of the target was a reliable way to never walk again. This makes a major difference in how much ammunition you need to effectively suppress/destroy a target.
That's pretty interesting. I wonder if it was Koreas or Irans contribution ?
Possibly that is from the presumably too old North Korean shells then. Shells have a use-by date. After that date they start to fail.
German nebelwerfer did spread many tiny shrapnels and was very accurate. Russian katjusha was slightly less accurate and spread large shrapnels. Russian bombardments was often, but not always larger. And each side believed the other side to be more effective than their own.
Nebelwerfer was more likely to hit people. While katjusha was very inaccurate and not likely to hit anyone, but if you were unlucky and got hit by a big shrapnel then chances were pretty high that you were going to die.
It has been said by many analysts (including ISW) that Russia needs to use 4 times as many artillery shells, compared with western delivered ones, to get the same effect. Worse quality shells in addition to worse quality barrels will do that.
If you’re laying in a 1m deep narrow trench (which is the absolute first thing everyone in this war tries to construct when attempting to hold a position) , you could be 10m from either shells explosion and be physically unaffected. Larger chunk might be significantly more effective in penetrating and damaging entrenchments and field fortifications as well.
The fact that Perun can get such high views for such long videos which are PowerPoint presentations speaks to his great ability as a content creator! Thanks Perun.
It is not the PowerPoints. It is the narrating and storytelling. I often listen to Perun off screen, and then once more on-screen, for some added context. He is not a PowerPoint presenter, he is a speaker. He could fill stadiums if he talked about mundane topics. He would still fill good sized clubs with the topics that are important. Would buy tickets and travel hundreds of miles for the Perun World Tour!
@@jochenkirn9468bro talking about Perun like he's Nelson Mandela lol. In reality, reading a script is very different from giving a speech
also speaks to there isnt really anyone else doing similar content consistently (to my knowledge)
the lack of russobots is disappointing.
@@dominien6487Willian Spaniel is the closest content creator to Perun that I can think of, but even then, his content is still significantly different than Perun's.
2 years later, still following every second of every ppt. Do not stop.
Greetings from Warsaw, Poland.
Wasnt there a big demonstration in poland with very strong anti-polish slogans etc?
You mean farmers protest that happenede recently?@@u2beuser714
@@u2beuser714what? No?
I’m pretty sure he is one of about 2-3 CZcamsrs where I haven’t missed a single episode .
still as biased as 2 years ago
"Or maybe Paris decides that Napoleon had some good ideas after all and decides to get the Grand Arme back together again."
These passive jokes and one-liners are amazing.
I love how for just a few weeks everything in Ukraine suddenly stopped and both sides were just sitting there stunned like, "........Why is Wagner invading Russia???"
Because Shoigu wanted to sacrifice Prigozhin.
@TheRezro Man I miss the Prighozhin Chronicles. That was better than Game of Thrones (especially season 8).
praise be the god of Thunder, Logistics and Powerpoint for bringing us our weekly infotainment.
Perkele
@@Peacich Faen!
@andersbjrnsen7203 Don't forget the economics aspect, such as Purchasing Power Parity! 😁
@@andersgrassman6583 I see you go for Added Alitterative Appeal here😅
@@Peacich Finnish or Estonian?
One of the reasons why i come back week after week is simple because you mange to convey the hard facts and topics without judgement but at the same time not without losing the human touch. And that when you have an hour long video not only do you manage to explain every topic without repeating the same point you manage to do so while bringing up the logic behind your reasoning, your sources and how likely it is that the sorces might be wrong. So many other work on the concept of trust me bro ^^
"without judgement"? That's ridiculous.
And here I am thinking I came here to hear how Ukraine is actually winning (irrespective of events that occurred in reality) and Russia has a slim to none chance of winning vs the almighty NATO machine.
Have you considered putting these on Spotify as podcasts? I often listen to these while doing something else and not needing to leave my phone unlocked would be very nice
Br*ve browser (as in, "not scared")
I replaced Chrome with it, easy transfer of everything.
Stellar mobile phone usage, pretty allright desktop usage experience 👍
@@NathansHVAC That doesn't help. Only paying youtube does.
@andersgrassman6583 worth it though
It's released as a podcast about two days after appearing on YT - but not on Spotify. I get it on Podcast Addict - which is not as easy to use as Spotify, but at least it doesn't have the awful ads. It might be available on other podcast apps as well. I've no idea why Perun doesn't mention this in the YT blurb, as it's a much easier way to listen to his 'videos' - you don't really need to see the slides, and you don't get all the ads, plus you don't have to keep your phone switched on, like you do with YT, so you can walk/garden/work whilst listening. I actually find that I need to watch/listen to most episodes more than once, so I typically listen both on YT and as a podcast, depending on what I'm doing at the time.
@@paulhaynes8045 Is it perun himself uploading or a reuploader? I remember that he had a case of someone impersonating him so I would be sus on accounts he doesn't publicly acknowledge, though reuploading on a podcast app is certainly not that harmful
Shower me in power point presentations!
YESSS!
😌
It is not the PowerPoints. It is the narrating and storytelling. I often listen to Perun off screen, and then once more on-screen, for some added context. He is not a PowerPoint presenter, he is a speaker. He could fill stadiums if he talked about mundane topics. He would still fill good sized clubs with the topics that are important. Would buy tickets and travel hundreds of miles for the Perun World Tour!
@@jochenkirn9468 you hit the nail on the head
@jochenkirn9468 I also, enjoy the analogies that Perun uses, throwing you into a scenario that's closely related to the topic.
The Ukraine war in 2024 - the shared instinct throughout the world to ignore what Medvedev says 😂
ESPECIALLY since I'm from Russia. A walking caricature
To understand it you have to get into the heads of every loyal political figure in Russia. Many of them don’t like Putin very much and know that they would do better job with country. They are corrupt, but not fixated on “making Russia great again” through war and at any cost. However they know that if Putin will ever perceive them as a threat, they will be removed or killed. And who has most reasons to be afraid of that than men who sit in presidents chair and was relatively OK president?
Medvedev now would eat babies on TV to be perceived as worse candidate than Putin.
@JonTull-fv2tg agreed, mate, although we prefer shish kebab (shashlik, as we call it) to barbecue :)
ignoring medvedev is just the same as ignoring any raging alcoholic in the subway
@@shrygguras a non-Russian who was born and grew up partially in Russia I would die for some good шашлык.
There are many skewer dishes around the world but these ones just hit differently for me. Probably childhood nostalgia.
Czech Republic mentioned 🇨🇿🇨🇿🇨🇿
People in small countries are so adorable when they get recognition, they're like the meme of that guy pointing at the TV
But not worthy of assessment PowerPoint from Perun
@@hieronymusbutts7349Czechia isn't really a small country
@@bigolboomerbelly4348 i live by the great lakes. When people try to show me a regular lake, I go, "that's not a lake, that's a pond"
@hieronymusbutts7349
Great Lakes are just small seas disguising themselves as lakes
It is heartening to know that there are 500,000 of my fellow humans who recognize the importance of deep and thoughtful analysis, it gives me some hope for our collective future.
Sadly, we're nowhere near being a majority but we are still out here fighting our own long war. This Perun army.
The man said archeotech. 40K fans, he’s one of us!
Pretty sure that he talked at length in the Q & A vid about formerly being a big time fan of Warhammer, but life and GW prices in Australia pushed him out of the hobby.
There's an awful lot of sour grapes about how much Russia lost to take Avdiivka but conspicuously absent criticism for how much Ukraine lost to fail at taking Robotyne
ukraine lost alot of western tanks during that. The issue is that western tanks are irreplaceable. Whats worse? losing 100 t-90s when you can make 30 a month or 10 leopards when you cant make them and only have 30
The best assessments of russian losses in Avdiivka between October 2023 and February 2024 were 16-17,000 killed (cargo 300) and 30,000 wounded (cargo 200). Most of the wounded take large doses of shrapnel, limb loss and a large percentage are maimed for life. So, that's ~45-50,000 casualties to take an all but empty town of ~30,000. In photographically verified equipment loss, the ratio of russian equipment to Ukraine equipment lost ranged from 12 to 1 to 20 to 1 over the same period. Ukrainian losses remained low until the end, when they took much greater personnel casualties. russia is the aggressor in this war, to achieve putin's dubious goals, they need to take all of Ukraine. They can't do it.
@Theaverageazn247 the rate russia is losing armour is unsustainable. Since the beginning of this year, they have lost: 851 tanks; 1988 APVs; and 2250 artillery systems - in 80 days. They've taken around 74k troop casualties in the same period. They can't defend the skies, because they're down 3 A-50s, and large slabs of their air defences - plus, they now need air defences in russia. Based on Perun's estimates of troop losses of 50k/6 mths "pressure figure" before you suffer capability degradation, 80 days into the year, they are 50% over the 6 mth limit. That will cause problems.
Ukraine has done this while suffering "shell starvation". It was the pivotal causal factor that cost them Avdiivka. Beware that wars are not won and lost on maps. The biggest risk russia faces is domestic production; inflation; collapsing oil refinery capacity; and other similar factors. The biggest risk Ukraine faces lies in Washington and especially Miami, home of the orange moron.
@@fretworka3596 That's a rather tendentious recitation of selected facts and guesses. For example, you select Russia's supposed casualties from one battle in which it seems to have done a Pyrrhic job of it--but don't mention Ukrainian casualties (which are concealed by the Ukrainians for some reason). There's certainly no doubt about the disproportionate equipment losses Russia has suffered. Casualty ratios are less clear, since we don't have comparable accuracy in casualty counts on either side.
Russia may discover, when it runs low on armor, as Ukraine did early in the war, that armor is less important in trench warfare that also includes lots of anti-armor infantry weapons, plus rapidly increasing drone capabilities. Russia's has considerable control over its casualty rate: it has held the initiative for 80% of this war.
Ukraine's offensive, when it was replete with shells over the summer, went poorly. It lost Bakhmut despite adequate amounts of shells. You don't know why it lost Avdiivka. It may have been staff level incompetence--they certainly failed in the last days and lost many POWs without good cause.
Russia's first risk is political, the replacement of Putin, after his demise, with someone either less competent at management (not that Putin's great) or perceived by the domestic audience as weak (like the weak-witted Nicholas II). Its second risk is that the Americans ramp up their war industry and also do things like send a thousand M-1 tanks or 100 F-16 fighters, flown by mercenary pilots hired at stratospheric prices from non-NATO countries. Of course, if America had a real President rather than a sleepy old corruptocrat, this sort of thing could have already happened. With Biden, Ukraine has the worst of both worlds: a man who can't make peace since he has no real power within his regime, yet can't support war since he has no real power to control the American-Mexican border and thereby cut a deal with America's patriot party. With the return of Trump, all such options will finally be on the table. Putin and Xi are in Biden's corner, along with all the traitors.
@@fretworka3596Source...trust me bro.
Because perhaps seemingly paradoxically the west relies heavily on propaganda to galvanize public support for sending weapons to Ukraine, and specifically the kind of propaganda that amplifies Ukrainian victories. In Russian not so much, for a long time Russian media tried to avoid talking about the war at all.
love your content
This is truly the only channel that can get me to jump out of bed to watch their newest content week after week
Congratulations on 500k subscribers! You've definitely earned it. I really appreciate you sharing the benefit of your experience. Today's vid was exceptional in that regard.
Everyone else is screaming ‘look at me, look at me, look at me’ but you just hunker down and say 'please listen to me for just a sec’.
This is what I feel is the ‘secret sauce’ of this channel.
Perun doesn't really use hyperbole, unless he is making a quip to lighten the load (and the humour is very ozzie which I appreciate more than he can appreciate).
The slide show format is refreshing as I’m pretty bored with videos filled with stock footage, and or a human head glaring at me from out of the screen.A lot of other people feel that they should mimic an American game show host.
I very much appreciate your disdain for catchphrases like ‘game changer’ and you never seem to use that other modern form of punctuation ‘as well’.
You show all your working and references, and never insist that you have the ultimate answer.
In the ol days men marched off to war thinking it was all going to be a great adventure. Thanks to people like yourself and the marvel that is the internet, it’s a bit harder for governments to process an ignorant population into mincemeat.
He doesn't say anything, in the end. And when things go south, as they are, then will, he can say, "Oh, I never said Ukraine was going to win, I said it 'might' win, if it gets enough X, Y, and Z. That is why he never commits in his conclusions. Ever.
@@nickcharles1284 Jeez, your a cranky wee thing ha ha
@@nickcharles1284I mean that's the point. Afaik what he does is analysis.
I know it is easy to forget with everyone in the media throwing wild guess around as if they were the certain truth in order to gain favor with whatever "side" they have chosen but the goal of analysis is not to be able to make predictions that are 100% made to happen.
I find it weird that your criticism of him is based on him doing his job well and not lowering himself to the point others have.
@@marte9346No,he doesn't do analysis. He talks endlessly about weapon's systems, and the maybe's of production and supply. He has no expertise in the following: He doesn't know Russian language, culture or history. Or Russian economy or production ability. He has no deep understanding of economics, European history, the motives of the West, the production capability of the West. He doesn't understand warfare, particularly modern warfare and what is required. Had he this understanding, he would have been able to understand that it was NATO expanding into Ukraine that was a definitive security red line for Russia, that this stance by Russia was coherent and completely valid, and that Russia had not only the economic potential but also the military and technical ability to prosecute its will successfully. When the special operation began commentators experts not aligned with US neoconservatives and elite interests correctly summed up the situation: Russia had the economic, military and industrial capability to win any military conflict on its doorstep. That Ukraine would not only lose, but be destroyed, either as a power or simple outright as a country. These include The Duran, Alexander Mercouris, Col Doublas MacGregor, Scott Ritter, Ambassador Chaz Freeman, and a host of others that the MSM simply ignored. Perun failed to see this because 1. he has no expertise as I noted, and 2. very importantly he has taken the West's propaganda as actual fact. He believes what Zelensky has been saying for the last 2 years, and believes the MSM. And his job is to help pump out a product that puts as positive a spin on that propaganda as possible, so fans of Western Intervention can live in a dream world as long as possible, for as many clicks and coin as possible. He feeds delusion, he does no provide pragmatic analysis. Which is why he never commits to a conclusion. It is hard to know if he actually believes what he is saying, or if he is a massive cynic. But what it has sounded like for 2 years is Hitler transmitting from his bunker in 1945; listening to Russian artillery landing on the Chancellery in Berlin, whist ordering long destroyed armies to engage and encircle and destroy the Russian scourge. Thought for the day: during the entire SMO, Russia has only committed about a 4th of its entire military might, and of this quarter only a third has been committed to battle.
@@nickcharles1284 if russias military is so powerfull, why are they delaying the victory for so many years?
Your "CZcams essays" are excellent and well worth listening too and contemplating over.
I started this episode over again immediately after I finished a first listen. Perun presents me with an enormous amount of information about the world, and this is absolutely brilliant! I run several of the episodes over and over again because Perun’s knowledge of geopolitics is endlessly provocative, and is exactly what the American public-overrun with conspiracy theories-needs urgently!!
As always your hard work is appreciated Perun.
I never thought i would get this excited for a powerpoint. On a sunday
“Which brings us to the questions of economics” oh yeah, Perun knows why we are all here. 16:33
Amazing video as always! Thank you and the team for all the hard work! Congratulations on 500K, 1 million is soon to follow!
Thanks Perun. Superb as always, unique and by the far the best survey of the situation and outlook which I have seen. You deserve every one of those 500,000 subscribers - and many more.
I am always amazed at how much knowledge you project without repeating the basics.
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with "stalemate," because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian productions down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙🇺🇦🛩️
I’m going to through this out there. For an April fools episode it’d be pretty fun to get an analysis of the standing of the Imperium of Man, from Warhammer 40k.
Perun, your excellent presentations are much appreciated. Many thanks.
44:30 My brother in the Omnissiah, that's the smoothest insertion of a 40k reference yet. Beautiful.
He's used the term "Lostech" before. Gaming roots run deep.
Perun is a fellow soul
Perun, I love being along for the ride. You have the ability to make the most mind numbingly boring topics just fasinating. I've enjoyed every topic you have broadcast even when I didn't think I was interested in them - Well done.
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with stalemate, because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian production down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙 🇺🇦 🛩️
I always feel smarter after these videos. Congratulations on 500k!
On the 25th of June, you would be telling your mates that Ukraine is winning the war of attrition during the counter-offensive...
He's Jake Brow lite
Smarter? Is that what getting another earful of “Ukraine is actually winning despite what events have taken place in the last x days since perun’s last video saying the same?”
that's what confirmation bias is. You hear what you want to hear and feel good about yourself, that's how propaganda works.
Ditto @barrychan6308!
Have some facts.... everyday Russia gains 1000 soldiers.... meanwhile in Ukraine they are trying to catch people escaping conscription.
Thanks for the awesome videos ive watched every single episode for over a year now!
I absolutely love Peruns style of presenting, I equally love William Spaniels style, what I enjoy is the casual mention by both of their signature references, like "lines on maps" & "Emutopia & Kiwiland" Both of them do a great job of keeping us engaged and informed. Thanks Perun.
Private Conscriptovitch, Sergeant Bicepski, Colonel Kleptovski ;-)
and yet again, after so many presentations (since "all bling" and I seriously can't remember how many it is now) The quality still remains brilliant. Thank you so much
“A Mussolini style relationship with a lamp post…..”
brilliant. 😂
TBH that is popular joke
Amazing how you manage to consistently deliver such quality content. Thank you Perun!
Thank yoiu for this update! Keep up the amazing work.
Big congrats Perun for 500K, well deserved mate! And I should also like to say a big thank you to all the people who help Perun out behind the scenes financially and with information and support; it's you lot all working together that allows us lot in the wider Perun community to enjoy a fantastic presentation each week for the low price of watching a few adverts. Big thanks.
Ukrainians are absolutely winning, even with (stalemate) because 9-11 oil and gas refineries and pumping stations have been hit (2024) Russian production down to ~45-40%, they've stopped exports of petrol and diesel! Slava-UA 💙 🇺🇦🛩️
can we just appreciate how cool it is that the Czech President tired with American delays went shopping, found the goods and had assembled a Consortium within a week
I thought the European commitment for a specific number of 155 shells was not meet by millions?
He has the money but there are no sellers
Great job as always, I look forward to your analysis every Sunday!
Thank you for another excellent video and congrats on reaching 500k! Never doubted it!
Even with all the caveats, Perun provides the most accurate assessment I've seen anywhere.
It prepares you for adjusting your opinion when something unexpected happens or turns out to be wrong.
Instead of going into defensive/denial mode, you can just go "Ah, this was one of the things Perun warned us might happen due to incomplete sources. Time to adjust the data."
It's not that he predicts exactly what the unexpected or inaccurate thing is, just that something is possible, even likely, to happen.
@@suntiger745this is called applying reason in general
@@e33d90 And, yet as we see, daily, it is a learned skil and not something humans have innately.
@@suntiger745 agreed
That Bit about skynetsky burning down the russian oil infrastructure made me laugh out loud so hard. I had to rewind about a minute to remember what you were even talking about beforehand
Same! F’n brilliant! lol
What point on the timeline was that, I missed it.
@@rodgerhempfing2921 20:43
Been waiting all week for a chance to listen to this.
Thanks Perun. Congrats on 500k subs.
Commenting for the algorithm
The main takeaway I had from this video was "Skynetski"
Keep up the good work. People like you give great value and bring truth to the space. You keep politics out. Love it and keep supporting.
Thank you for the hard work! You always manage to condense an hour and a half’s content into a one-hour video.
Have to hand it to you Perun, after watching these from the beginning, the quality of content, intelligence, common sense, and humour has me coming back every week. Shortly after you started, I became a Patreon as well and in the end it is not because of the high quality of content slide decks and amazing commentary that keeps me supporting you, it is your humble humility in appreciation of what is happening to your channel and that you consistently do your best to give all us a little bit of knowledge to approach all of this with a bit more knowledge in our daily conversations with our fellow citizens. Thanks for teaching all of us, it is appreciated. Keep up the amazing work, it is truly appreciated and I would say, you've got enough content now to be Professor Perun.
My sunday afternoon ritual consists of a large cup of coffee, some sweets or cookies, and listening to my favorite Australian PowerPoint man explain defense logistics and economics.
Thank you again mate for some truly top of the line analysis content. To quote Macho Man Randy Savage: "The cream of the crop! Nobody does it better!"
Man, this one is chock full of memorable quotes:
"Listening to Medvedev, an activity that should come with a warning label"
"A formering catering boss decides to start a mutiny and march on your capital"
"Maybe Paris decides that Napoleon had some decent ideas after all and tries to get the Grande Armee gang together again"
"The price of Russian oil might be sensitive to things like the Ukrainian firing drones at Russian oil infrastructure"
"Nobody ever stopped a tank assault with a macroeconomic statistic"
"Marching to Kiev in a road made of your own destroyed tank hulls"
"Irreplaceable pieces of archeotech for the Russian military"
Coming back every week since the first video! Truely great content that feels pretty unbiased, which is really hard to find these days!
Quality stuff as always. A grim pleasure to watch
I have to say this is the number one channel I come to in order to get updates on Ukraine, along with a full and fair assessment of the war, as well as with other news! You always seem to give as unbiased information as you can and don't pull your punches when it comes to facts about equipment losses and causality figures, keep up the good work and know your hard work is appreciated!
Perun gave / gives the impression that Ukraine can win this conflict. Even with his weasel caveats of 'if this and that happens', he is wrong. In no way was Ukraine (which means NATO, the US, and Ukraine) ever going to win this conflict.
@@nickcharles1284 I'm pretty sure that's because Ukraine could still potentially win if given the right support from the west, at this point I don't see them losing out right! They can definitely lose some territory, but the Russians can't barely take a town, let alone the whole country, that ship has sailed! Also, I can understand doubting if Ukraine can win or not, but it makes me question your motivation and/or your sanity, trying to insinuate that NATO or the US alone would have a problem in a war with Russia! The US alone would have already won or at least be winning decisively, I don't know if you have any direct experience with the US military, I have and we ain't scared I'll tell you that much!
@@BluegrassKnight Appreciate your reply. 1. "Ukraine could still win , IF given enough support". This idea ignores the fact that Ukraine has already had this support. Its army was armed and trained by NATO for 7 years in the run-up to the Russian SMO. That army was largely destroyed by June, 2022. If that army, which was as strong and well trained and well supplied as Ukraine would ever be could not defeat the Russians - who were at the time only using a fraction of their military power, then reality asserts that the current Ukraine army - which is of less quality in regard to troop training, experience, and morale - could not defeat the Russian army. The Russian army is now FAR larger, supplied with everything it needs in abundance, is now more experienced and has sky high morale. 2. There is nothing left for the West to give Ukraine. It has emptied its own armories. And the West - the US, EU, NATO - will never be able to ramp up production enough to come even close to supplying Ukraine with what it needs. I has failed across the board to provide what it has already promised. 3. Even if Ukraine got everything it wanted (which it cannot) - as it did prior to the "Summer Counter Offensive" in 2023 - it will misuse them. Ukraine's military has proven to be run by amateurs who have wasted soldiers and material in useless and unproductive offensives that achieved nothing. 4. "The the US or NATO would have a problem with Russia". The US and NATO do alfready have a problem with Russia. This is a US proxy war against Russia. The US thought it could use NATO to train Ukrainians and provide logistics to defeat Russia and unseat Putin. This idea has proven to be catastrophically at variance with reality. The US and NATO are losing this war. If nothing else the war has shown that the US and the EU do not have the industrial base, or the type of military to prosecute symmetric warfare against a peer opponent. 5. Being 'scared' or not scared isn't the point. The US army is in a very poor state. And this conflict is exposing the weakness of an army geared towards fighting third world, insurgent armies using expensive, high tech weapons that require enormous amounts of logistical support and infrastructure. The US cannot even stop Yemen from closing down traffic in the Red Sea. The idea that the US could field enough men and material, AND get it to Europe, AND get it to the battlefield before it was destroyed , AND then take on the Russian army in it front yard, is an idea divorced not only from the pragmatics of military doctrine, but also from reality. It is religious thinking. Or 'magical thinking' of the type that Biden and Blinking and Nuland engage in. Much to the woe of the half a million Ukrainians the US accedes have been killed and wounded.
@@BluegrassKnightSee: Brian Berletic at the New Atlas : "Russian T-72B3 Destroys US-Made M1 Abrams as Russia's Strategy of Attrition Grinds Ukraine Down".
@@nickcharles1284I believe you either don't do enough of your own research or just want to believe everything Russia or Russian mouth pieces say is true. While I would agree with some of your points, I have to disagree with others and since you wrote a lot, I will just answer your arguments in order. 1) I won't argue the facts of who will win, it's still an ongoing war and anything could happen! Though about Ukraine being trained and equipped by NATO for 7 years prior to the '22 invasion is true, but not nearly to the extent you claim. We simply can't know the exact amount of training given but we know it couldn't have been extensive, simply because there was never a big NATO presence in Ukraine. Plus, the equipment and arms given before the invasion were basically small arms, with a few exceptions and the Ukrainian army has never been wiped out and certainly not in the summer of '22! That would be quite the feat for an army that just got wiped out, then proceed to push the Russian army out of the Kyiv area, the Kharkiv oblast, Kherson city and rest of the west bank of the Dnipro! I do however acknowledge that Russia is the stronger country, with superior resources and manpower to Ukraine, why they chose not to use all their assets I think says more about the Russian army than the Ukrainian! 2) The west has only given small arms, some air-defense systems, some armored vehicles and the dreaded "HIMARS", (which by Russian numbers they have destroyed most, all or more than they had)! As well NATO and the US in particular have not run their armories dry, there are low stocks of certain ammo types, but there is more than enough of other types to supplement the shortages. The US has tuned its military for insurgent operations in recent decades, that doesn't mean we completely lost our peer fighting capability though, we simply have to revamp part our military and the west isn't on a war footing like Russia. If the US alone marshaled its resources and went to a war economy, we could not only supply Ukraine, but we could also defeat Russia outright! 3) Ukraine didn't get everything it wanted, it wanted F-16's, ATCAMS, storm shadow, Taurus and hundreds of tanks, of which it only received a quarter of the tanks, storm shadow, and few months ago ATCAMS, that don't sound like everything they asked for, which is on the West! As for the Ukrainians being amateurs, since a good portion were civilians and reservists, I'd say they kind of were at the time, however what's that say about the superior Russians, when those amateurs held their own and managed to take some territory back! 4&5) I pretty much already said what I feel about that, I don't see how anyone that honestly looks at the West and the US in general's military and economy, then think Russia would really be able to win a war against the US, it's just not being realistic! Also, while you're pointing out sides running out of things, Russia seems to like using older and older tanks here lately, not to mention the begging they have had to do in order to get shells, drones and microchips and for Ukraine not having a navy Russia seems to be losing a lot of ships! Also, to be clear the US only has a few ships in the Red Sea and the terrorists are firing at civilian ships, I personally would like to see them just wiped out, but we are trying to keep the peace not start another war, everyone likes to mistake the reluctance to start a war with weakness, I really wish Russia or China would try us, so simps like you wouldn't have anything to yak about!
I love the lines on maps disses 😆
"Lines on Maps" works with 'probable' Mathematics. Perun is Analytical Realistic Data, both relative, the latter more likely!
i use probable mathematics in my general grift doctrine.
Thanks for the insight, and amazing work. Keep going, mate.
Thank you so much for providing the world with such incredibly well researched analysis
Warm weather. Cold drink. Some peanuts.. And just when the day was excellent.
My Sunday shot of Australian powerpoint dopamine has arrived.
And now my Sunday is made❤
Goddamnit Perun, I was taking a drink when you said “Skynetski” and choke, coughed, and snorted scotch through my nose trying to laugh. Funny as hell, but I wasn’t expecting it then.
Appreciate your clarity!
Great job mate, keep up the good work!
“Babe, come here. Another hour long PowerPoint video just dropped!”
I also think that “A Mussolini style relationship with a lamp post.” is one of the best quotes from the video🤣
He was hung at the entrance of a train station from a support beam for rain cover. What relationship did he have with a lamp post?
Thankyou Perun, proud to have you representing us! "Bringing the thunder from Downunder!"
I found your remarks about the changes in class and economics within Russia especially insightful and interesting.
Awesome work mate! ❤
(And continuing to think of the civilians caught up in this meatgrinder...)
Great content as usual. I'm happy to see that you're work is beginning to be referenced in other youtubers videos on the subject as well. Goes to show the quality of your content!
You are welcome. Your channel is one of the best I subscribe to and I enjoy the snark. Good luck in 2024, I’ll be here every week watching it.
I kinda have a hunch that in school your power points were actually a thrill
A few notes re artillery:
1) in addition to the 2 new plants in GER and Ukr, Rheinmetall is still increasing production at its existing factories in GER and Spain.
2) In addition to the Czech initiative, GER did buy 120k rounds of 122mm from Bulgaria in January.
They should arrive in late March.
3) By 2025, the new SMArt155 2.0 rounds should be ready.
4) in addition to the 78 Caesars, Ukr will also get more Archer, Zusannas and RCH155 (Boxer AGM) in 2024, plus more PzH and RCH in 2025.
5) Despite lack of ammo, Ukr claims of destroyed RUS guns went from
600 in Dec 23 to
700 in Jan 24 to
900 in Feb 24.
I think this shows nicely the problems caused to RUS of relying on older, shorter ranged guns.
6) There are RUS sources saying that RUS gun numbers in the Ukr theater of ops was actually declining by 600 arti pieces in February.
If you take that at face value, RUS is finally reaching the limits of its capabilities re ramping up its forces from depots.
7) My gut says RUS will run out of barrels in late fall.
My hunch is you are probably wrong on that one.
Looking at the SP guns the West will send doesn't answer how many have been destroyed. I am fairly sure Ukraine doesn't or won't have 78 Cesars operational
People also forget that 155mm comfortably outranges 152mm
In June 2022, the Federal Ministry of Economics granted Rheinmetall authorisation for the delivery of 100 PzH 2000s to Ukraine the supply of which was to begin in 2024, i.e. now. I don't think we will learn everything from the media, as I haven't learnt anything about the status of this delivery anywhere.
Im Juni 2022 erteilte das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium der Firma Rheinmetall die Genehmigung für die Lieferung von 100 PzH 2000 an die Ukraine, deren Zulauf 2024 beginnen sollte, also jetzt. Ich habe nirgendwo etwas über den Stand dieser Lieferung erfahren.
@@michaelneuwirth3414 There was a permit issued, but no contract concluded at the time. Ukr preferred spending the limited aid money on other stuff back then.
A deal over 18 PzH for Ukr, to be financed by GER, was announced late 2023.
Thanks for the tip. I have been following the events since 2022 and this information completely passed me by. Where could you get this information?
Danke für den Hinweis. Ich verfolge das Geschehen seit 2022 und diese Information ist völlig an mir vorübergegangen. Wo haben sie diese Information gefunden?
You're the highlight of my week. Thank you.
Excellent report once again. Thank you very much! Looking forward for the another one when it's ready.
I think its fair to say Perun has one of the most committed viewer bases in the game. Within 24 hrs his views & subscribers usually are equal. #SalutePPTMan
There is no instance of a nation benefiting from a prolonged war.
- Tsun Tzu, The Art of War. (The loading screen of a video game about prolonged war in which I am currently playing)
What game?
@@PodreyJenkin138 Total War: Shogun 2
France in the first and second coalition? Over several years they nearly doubled their territory whilst fighting most of Europe all at once.
As always, a great and balanced presentation. I appreciate your hard work and accurate factual analysis.
Fantastic presentation, bravo!❤
"Babe im ready and waiting,come to bed"
"Be there in an hour, busy with tertiary grade Defence economic analysis yarns"
I would like to see a video on "the cost of defending NATO vs supporting Ukraine" from both an American perspective and from a European perspective. I think everyone in the US needs to see the first.
🥱
I sincerely doubt the Russians would attack NATO, when they win they are just going to occupy Ukraine
These videos are the highlight of my week quite often! Keep up the great work, you really are a pioneer of this type of teaching online and an inspiration.
Have been soaking up as much as possible, on the conflict from day 1. I try to listen the reporting from both sides. This is the first night I have listened to your reporting & I very much like you analysis on it . Keep it going .
Horrific implications aside, a Russian AI named "Skynetski" would be seriously hilarious.
It is already very concerning that the war continues in WW1 style. It would be million times worse if it ends in WW1 style.
My Sundays are complete with a cup of coffee and your wonderful content 🙏❤️ Many thanks a well deserved half million milepost 🌟
Thanks once again Perun. Always fascinating
Skynetski... That's gold class material right there.
I always found it weird how Russia goes on about NATO expansion all the time but their actions have led to NATO expansion and they don't actually seem to give a shit about countries actually joining NATO. They only seem to really care about Ukraine.
Its also strange that they fear Nato will attack them and say the war in Ukraine is therefore self-defence.
And in the next moment they say that Nato is pathetically weak and does not have the ammunition to win a war with russia.
And now they are moving their last remaining air defence systems from Kaliningrad to Ukraine - which I take as a sign that they are not the least afraid of Nato invading their most vulnerable outpost of russia.
They did not have the means to do anything about the NATO expansion once their offensive potential was already engaged in Ukraine. That is why they were kind of tail between their legs about it.
Their adventure in Ukraine was all about pre-empting Ukraines NATO membership and a regime change into a more Russian minded one. They just expected it to be over in a few weeks.
it was hardly a strange fear...misguided but utterly rational from their point of view.... NATO has been Wooing Ukraine since the 90's and after the insurrection that ousted the government, its position of non aligned state melted away...and NATO acceptance which was already well under way at that point became an inevitability..
Which left Russia with the option of either allowing Sevastopol to become a NATO harbor and sit quietly while NATO built its bases along that 1000 mile long border right within spitting distance of Moscow or attempt something reckless to throw a spanner in NATO long term plans before it was to late...which they did in a spectacular and bloody fashion .
I dislike what Russia did immensely ...but I'm not willfully blind to why they did it...
For example if Scotland had actually gained its independence a few years back, and a decade later after a coup that ousted its current government for a hard left replacement it had begun to make inroads to align itself with the CCP to eventually put itself under its security umbrella and open its north sea ports to Chinese warships while planning to move large amounts of Chinese men and materials to the English border (purely for defense of course) as soon as the treaty was ratified.....how would NATO and the Nations directly bordering this potential incursion react?
I mean if the scottish people had chosen this willingly there shouldn't be any issue ...right?
@@nattygsbord
@@johntowers1213 Certainly wouldn't have reacted by invading Scotland and there's no example to suggest otherwise.
I do also suspect USA would be in total bliss and very supportive of Scotland for making sure Europe had stakes in a conflict with China.
It's not weird if you consider that this whole thing is just intended to stay in power. It's gone wrong (they clearly expected it'd be like Crimea/Georgia), but that does not change the underlying objectives. Stay in power.
Just in time, thank you, Perun! Love the silent William Spaniel shot about lines on maps 😂
I love the humor in this episode. Thank you, and your team, for putting out an amazing video every week. Keep up the good work!
0:00: ⚔️ Analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine with a focus on military and economic balance.
5:11: ⚔️ Evolution of drone technology and tactics in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia in 2024.
9:46: ⚔️ Analysis of military balance and strategic situation in ongoing conflict.
14:42: ⚔️ Analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, caution against premature declarations of victory, and the importance of resources and willpower in determining the outcome.
19:47: 🛢️ Complexity of Russian oil prices influenced by various factors including output cuts and geopolitical tensions.
25:01: ⚔️ Russia's rapid increase in war spending poses a significant challenge for Ukraine's allies.
30:10: ⚔️ Challenges and opportunities in Russian military and economic balance in 2024.
35:29: ⚔️ Analysis of military and economic output in Ukraine war, comparing US and Russian munition production.
40:26: ⚔️ Material advantage in production does not guarantee victory if consumption rates are higher.
45:33: ⚔️ Analysis of military equipment depletion and future losses in the Ukraine War.
50:42: 🔍 Transformational changes in Russian artillery park in Ukraine compared to pre-war numbers.
55:33: 💪 Challenges and strengths of Russian and Ukrainian forces in 2024
1:00:39: ⚖️ Assessment of the military balance in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Timestamps by Tammy AI
"Skynetsky!" 😂
Thanks for the coverage
Very informative as usual. Thanks Perun
Booo Perun!!!
Congrats on the election win!
Hi, I am a 46 old peruvian male whose both grandpas went to the Peruvian-Ecuadorian war (the one you covered) one as a camera man and the other one as a navy man. Great channel.
The cameraman survived, right?
@@janbo8331 both of them😆
Thanks, Perun.
Thank you for making such awesome videos every week!
> Medvedev's statements
Well, I tend to think he's playing a role of crazy drunk warmonger to not look like a threat to Putin and to therefore avoid ending up on board of a plane juggling hand grenades while on cocaine.
Between Mussolini's corpse and Kadyrovtsy-staged "combat" Tik-Toks, fascism has been hell on lampposts. // Thanks Perun for another informative and lively presentation.
Great stuff as always!
Well done you slide show maestro you! Thank YOU Perun, and keep up the good work.