Reacting To My Top 50 Players for 2023!
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- čas přidán 28. 05. 2024
- PATREON: / foolishbaseball
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00:00 - Intro
0:23 - 50 Justin Verlander
3:13 - 49 George Springer
4:35 - 48 Luis Robert Jr.
6:38 - 47 Bo Bichette
8:01 - 46 Matt Olson
9:11 - 45 Jeff McNeil
10:15 - 44 Wander Franco
11:43 - 43 Will Smith
13:05 - 42 Spencer Strider
15:12 - 41 Byron Buxton
17:24 - 40 Pete Alonso
19:04 - 39 Xander Bogaerts
20:49 - 38 Max Scherzer
22:07 - 37 Brandon Woodruff
23:23 - 36 Brandon Nimmo
25:22 - 35 Shane McClanahan
26:36 - 34 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
28:30 - 33 Adley Rutschman
29:47 - 32 Zack Wheeler
30:58 - 31 Rafael Devers
32:43 - 30 Kyle Tucker
34:12 - 29 Austin Riley
35:40 - 28 Carlos Rodón
37:14 - 27 Corey Seager
38:42 - 26 Alex Bregman
40:08 - 25 J.T. Realmuto
42:07 - 24 Francisco Lindor
43:37 - 23 Aaron Nola
45:30 - 22 Jose Altuve
46:49 - 21 Gerrit Cole
48:29 - 20 Fernando Tatis Jr.
51:07 - 19 Bryce Harper
52:51 - 18 Ronald Acuña Jr.
55:19 - 17 Julio Rodríguez
57:17 - 16 Sandy Alcantara
59:33 - 15 Manny Machado
1:01:00 - 14 Trea Turner
1:02:48 - 13 Corbin Burnes
1:04:20 - 12 Carlos Correa
1:06:39 - 11 Paul Goldschmidt
1:09:03 - 10 Freddie Freeman
1:10:22 - 9 Jacob deGrom
1:12:59 - 8 Yordan Alvarez
1:14:56 - 7 José Ramírez
1:17:28 - 6 Mookie Betts
1:19:40 - 5 Nolan Arenado
1:21:51 - 4 Juan Soto
1:24:53 - 3 Mike Trout
1:27:18 - 2 Aaron Judge
1:28:47 - 1 Shohei Ohtani
1:31:31 - vs MLB Network
1:38:46 - Honorable Mentions
1:50:26 - Patreon
2023 Foolish 50: • MLB's Top 50 Players f... - Sport
Threatened my local theater with arson if they didn’t screen this, thanks Bailey!
Foolish = 🔥
Well, did they…
Arson Judge?
Be careful, with that criminal act you may have to appear before an arson judge!
@@astralflick my simple mention of a meme got more likes that your well crafted joke… This says a lot about society… 😔😔
5.8bwar (and 4.4fwar, w/ a gold glove) Ha-Seong Kim not making honorable mentions makes me mildly melancholic
Same. I've been all aboard the fanwagon with HSK since the Padres signed him, but I feel like he's still not getting the recognition he deserves.
the video fading out with witt jr and not hsk was one of the saddest endings a youtube video could have (not saying witt jr shouldn’t be an hm because he’s great but hsk is 🔛🔝‼️‼️)
Has to be on the foolish 50 next year. My favorite player in the mlb
No honorable mentions for Ha Seong Kim or JP Crawford is wild. Both had 5 WAR seasons
I think the honorable mentions are more referring to rookies and players who were close to making the cut when the list was originally being made. Otherwise honorable mentions would just be anyone with top 50 fwar who wasn't on the list. Like before the season started literally nobody would have predicted JP Crawford being a top 20 fwar guy (and I say this as a die hard Mariners fan).
what? this video isnt about the top 50 players in baseball, its about grading FBs preseason predictions vs the actual stats. he isnt regrading them
@@fredrio99at the end of the video is literally his section for “people that weren’t highly considered for the top 50 but were top 50 players”
@@pohorex6834I was talking about including them in the honorable mentions, particularly when he starts the last part of it for “players that were not highly considered for the top 50 but were top 50 players”
@@jaredgunderson6530 they were all considered for his top 50, that’s the point of it. JP and Ha Seong weren’t highly considered at all
A quick thought on Mookie. I think part of his decreased stolen base total is Freeman hitting behind him. Freeman walks a lot which sort of negates the benefit of stealing second and he's also an absolute extra base machine and Betts scores from first on any of those so I don't think he has a lot of incentive to steal right now along with the benefit of keeping his legs fresh so he can play 150+ games per year even as he ages. Just my thought. Very fun style of video and I look forward to next year's list.
deGroms 2.2 fWAR also indicates that he deserves his 23 WS ring because if a league average starter is in his place do they have the minimum wins to make the post season?
And Steele Walker is better than Ken Griffey Jr …
kinda interested we didnt see an adolis garcia HM. I understand why he didnt make the list and Ill understand when he doesnt make the 2024 list, but he had a 4.8 fwar season and a +8 FRV out in right field. deserves his flowers as much as anyone else in the honorable mentions even discounting his playoff heroics
he's kinda different to what is perceived as valuable with OPS as he's just gonna show up, crush baseballs and drive in about 100 runs in every year.
i'm not sure that bailey wont have garcia in his list. if george springer was on this list, the production the garcia put out will put him on this list, even if it's just at 50
Garcia definitely makes my list for 2024
I was disappointed that Logan Webb didn't make the 2023 list. With a solid 4.5 WAR season and his level of consistency and durability, I can see him putting together a top 30-40 season in 2024!
Let's go Giants!
And the only reason he has such a shitty record was cause of his run support🤦♂️. I’m pretty sure he was like 0-8 or 0-9 to start the season but had like a ERA in the 3s😂 go giants baby!
He’s an absolute horse. Incredibly underrated
Absolutely
Webb threw only 14 more pitches than Snell this year (3182 vs. 3168), but logged 36(!) more innings (216 vs. 180). That’s ludicrous.
Talk about different ways to becoming a Cy Young finalist
@@mnguyen313that’s an awesome stat
Franco should have been 14 on the list
😭😭😭
Yeah, Julio Franco is the ageless wonder, he could sign with any team and take over their first base position to this day.
@@Teenieweeniemussolini yes
1 HOUR 51 MINUTE FOOLISH BAILEY VIDEOOO🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤
McNeil was definitely a victim of the shift ban and you see this in his second half splits: he was awful in the first half of the season but in August and September he started to put together a normal Jeff McNeil slash line. I think he took a while to figure it out and as a Mets fan it was nice to see him figure out how to hit again down the stretch
Also regarding Pete, his June through the ASG coming off the injury was his worst month of his career by far and he clearly wasn’t right yet. He figured it back out in August and had a great couple of months down the stretch. If he didn’t get plunked in the hand by Elder I think he would’ve put up 50+ Homers easily
@@Snazzeo It's also interesting that Pete had such an abhorrent BABIP after the shift ban. You gotta imagine that that's gonna revert to the mean at some point right?
@@nategutekunst5188 A lot of Pete's season goes into the garbage because of his injury at least for me but I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a TTO guy in his 30s like Schwarber
Hey Bailey, you nailed it this time (as much as one can with a top 50). A suggestion: what about doing your own All-MLB ballots? Could make for a meaty video (esp. if you do 1st and 2nd teams), and I think it would fit right in with the "digesting the season" videos you normally do this time of year.
There's gonna be no way to give a 2024 ranking for Ohtani that everybody agrees with. If you put him #1 people will be mad since its hard to believe a post TJ full time DH puts together the best season of anyone. But any lower rank and people are mad because on a true talent basis, of course he is #1.
Being that this is a yearly list based off production, he shouldn’t be near #1. Top 25 for sure, we wouldn’t put prime David Ortiz or Edgar Martinez in that discussion.
It’s a ranking of next season so it’s obviously not based on him pitching, so if anyone gets mad it’s because they don’t understand the premise of the list.
I'm sure Trout will make it back to his insane self. He is only 32 after all. But yeah he had never had under a .900 OPS (.939 actually) so it was weird to see him so shaky
That entire Angels team seemingly took a step back outside of Drury, Ohtani and the rooks, it was very odd to watch a bunch of proven MLB players fold in on themselves like that be it injury or whatever
I'm less sure only because he's got a degenerative back issue. So he'll come back and pop off well to start; but I don't believe we'll see Trout at his usual Hall of Fame self after this sadly.
The Vlad Jr. Gold Glove truly stands out amongst the worst award picks in recent memory
Up there with the Porcello Cy Young
I feel like this is such a retrospective take. Go look at the Defensive 2022 stats for AL 1st Basemen, they're really all just mid.
You could make the argument that some else deserved it sure. But it wasn't "the worst award pick"
@@cecilego3780 Qualified AL first baseman in 2022 with a higher OAA than Vlad: Owen Miller, Ryan Mountcastle, Josh Naylor, Ji Man Choi, Jose Abreu, Bobby Dalbec, Spencer Torkelson, Jared Walsh, Harold Castro (no idea who this is lol)
@@sethwoodhouse4797 I can cherry pick stats too. According to Fangraphs: Qualified AL First baseman in 2022 with a higher DRS than Vlad:
Do you think Gold Glove voters will/should be voting for Owen Miller, who started 71 games at 1st for 638 innings?
I remember at the time thinking Mountcastle should've won it. Him and Abreu are the only guys who had both a postive DRS (1) and positive OAA.
Defensive metrics are still really new.
@@cecilego3780 ok lol UZR and dWAR also didn’t like him. It’s not cherry picking if multiple categories agree
Counterpoint to SS’s always do well further down the defensive spectrum: Hanley Ramirez. Never seen a worse LF. Granted he barely held his own at SS in the first place.
Great work by the way. Love the reviews on predictions like this. Most people don’t do this.
Buxton broke my heart as a Twins fan 😪 but interested in seeing if Pablo Lopez makes your list in 2024! He has all the makings of a true ace and I’m elated he’s under team control for a couple more years
Lopez is definitely a top 50 player, I'm just not sure where he sits. I'd tentatively put him 20-25 and Correa 45-50 for 2024, but the rest of the Twins have too many question marks.
Trea turners offensive season reminded me of Marcus semien’s 2022 offensive season. I think it’s very reasonable to expect him to be back to form the same way semien was this year.
wow this is actual facts
Would love a foolish 75 next year, know it doesn’t roll off the tongue but I’d love to know what you think about more baseball players, Bailey
Ricky Karcher posted a 0.00 ERA, allowed 0 H/9, and converted 100% of save opportunities. He should be on your 2024 list. Don’t ask about his FIP, strike %, walks, or watch any game film however.
Semien is THE odd year guy. Leave him off in 24'. I started to feel bad, but he has a ring to look at. Big fan of him whichever way. He's one of the good guys of baseball.
Great video! I already watched all of it!
Crazy that we live in an era that when looked back on when you are casting your vote for the HOF you will have to consider that a player was great, but was missing certain awards because that 6-10 year window where Ohtani ruled the game of baseball.
Players in the early 2000s NL be like
Trout ruled the AL from 2012 to 2019, Ohtani has only been the number one player from 2021-23 and he won't be next year either.
This year revitalized my love for baseball, and in good part because of watching your content and actually looking into the more analytical side of things. (Also because SoRare was a fun fantasy baseball experience) The rules changes helped a lot too, and I just found myself excited to see just good players around the league ball out. The stolen base flurry also was a welcome addition. Looking forward to more vids and just baseball stuff in general!
I was very salty about Manoah when you posted the Foolish 50. I can wholeheartedly say that I was wrong, you were right.
The moral of the story is that ERA is NOT a predictive metric.
@@chesschad81There isn't any stat that could have predicted the shitshow that was Manoah's season.
@@unkledoda420 All the projection systems (which are based purely on statistics) predicted a big decline last year. His HR/FB and BABIP were both strong indicators of a lucky 2022. I expected a decline for the 2023 reason, just not quite to the extent that it ended up being.
So much work went into this video. Great job.
JRam is built for Cleveland. He looks like the fans. A husky working man yet he’s like a super hero out there. Crushing the baseball, using his speed on the base pads and on defense. A true inspiration for kids who don’t believe they are “built” for professional baseball. Love the guy.
As a Royals fan, I know I'm biased, but I was waiting the whole video for the Bobby Witt Jr. mention. Thanks Bailey
I mean he’s a top 2 shortstop in the league only behind Seager, I think he belongs up in the 20th range
One of my fav video series every year are your player rankings!! Thanks Bailey!
Great list as always Bailey
The fact that the Twins won a playoff series with their 2 best players completely flopping has me very excited thinking about their ceiling as a team for 2024
who was 2? Correa and Buxton? But I agree, with the surge of Royce and Wallner securing their main roster spots hopefully a full season of Grand Slam Lewis gives us more ability to trade some pieces for more offense
It helps when your opponents score a total of one run over 18 innings
@@sealeo5772I’m a Jays fan; FUCK that Jays team they were terrible to watch all season
@@sealeo5772 *When your pitching holds the opponent to one run in 18 innings.
Unfortunately the Twins are cutting payroll drastically and have lost a lot of their pitching, and they'll have to trade key line-up depth to shore that up. Correa will probably bounce back somewhat, but Buxton can't be counted on and Lewis is injury prone as well, and my estimate is that the Twins will be a worse team next season.
2 HOURS?!? THANK YOU FOR BLESSING US, BAILEY 🙏
Look forward to these every year Bailey!
It used to be we thought mcneil went good year bad year good year bad year, but perhaps he just decides to do whatever the opposite of what bailey thinks he will do. Please keep him off the list this year
Great vid as always
1:08:15 i think is the most fired up ive ever seen Bailey and i completely agree
Great work bailey, next year you think we could get the ops for the players on the stat sheet?
Really enjoy these type of ranking / reaction videos. I’ve started to get into stats the past few years myself and ranking players. It’s always interesting to me how much some players can fluctuate from year to year. I’m especially curious to see how people rank Ohtani for next year.
Straight up called my man a husk and didn’t even flinch
Love this video! Suggestion for next year's ranking - make a 51st spot that you give to your rookie breakout pick.
You absolutely killed it this year!!
Robert Witt, Junior would like a word
This is a complete video, a fantastic video
curious where william contreras falls in your opinion, the large defensive strides he made this season as well as hitting .290 has gotta put him at least close to the top 50 to me
Well for next year's list, Bobby Witt Jr. would have to make it. Probably in the Top 20. I'm kinda shocked you didn't mention him once.
What playing for the royals does for an mf’s reputation. He really is talked about way too little for how good of a season he had lol
Yup. Shoulda been here
Not to grasp at straws or anything, but Bobby Witt Jr. was in fact mentioned exactly once in this video, at the very end
@@TrevorX3Really? As an honourable mention, which he basically got, sure but nothing else.
@@cadecarruthers6638 Damn, I had stopped the video by then. He really did wait until the bitter end lol
A critique I and many others had of Cole was his tendency to overthink, so in hindsight it should've been easier for us to see what cutting that time down on the mound would do for him
While that certainly matters for starters, it’s impossible to quantify reliably. When predicting seasons you kinda have to ignore those biases.
Perfect background video for being at the gym. Thanks Foolish!
New to the channel and this is my first video your content is awesome man keep goin
I think for Machado it’s worthy of noting that he was playing through injuries the entire season and still was able to hit 30 bombs with incredible defense. It’ll be hard to project him moving forward tho as he’s getting surgery in the off season. I think when right he has the potential to be a top 15 player again
Curious why you weren't happy with Logan Webbs 2022 when it was his career year.. until this year lol
How about making a new top 50 for the finished season and then comparing the pre and post season lists?
Always love to see a foolish video drop!
Real jealous bout those strider digits
I could listen to you educate commenters all day long. “Past stats are great, but I predicted this years stats” great stuff as always. Appreciate the content.
Hey, past performance is the best indicator of future performance tbf
@@mattcollett9370 if that was the case then people would be great forever
@@mattcollett9370 Foolish does these videos because 1 he loves baseball 2 entertainment 3 he loves baseball but predicting anything is a rough business. Past performance is a great tool to use but only one of many different ways you could attempt to predict a player’s performance against his peers. Ballpark, age, where he hits in the lineup, teams in division, babib, consistency etc. What he’s saying is “so n so did this last year” isn’t relevant to his ranking next year because he already did his research to predict top 50, and I’m sure he may have glanced over last year’s numbers already so no one is telling him anything he doesn’t already know.
What about the OOTP sim you ran that had the Rangers making the LCS? Good shit
I really like Nico Hoerner and Ha-Seong Kim. Surprised that at least Kim didn’t make the honorable mentions.
Julio would’ve benefitted from less plate appearances lmao he was pretty horrendous in the last few weeks
The continued Kevin Gausman disrespect is crazy
nevertheless, always a treat to watch your videos Bailey!
I think you forgot to mention with Machado the fact he was troubled with lingering injuries that eventually forced him into the DH role and now surgery. I think this is not quite vindication of him regressing but 2024 will be the best way to evaluate him going forward in his career imo. I see it at a similar case with Sandy after this year when he comes back 2025.
13:13 very cheeky brag Bailey haha
An additional reason to place Webb among the best NL pitchers for 2024 is Patrick Bailey's ability to frame his changeups at an elite level.
Yessssssssss ive been waiting for this!!!
1:01 talking about Trea Turner pick “not me though, I am a very special boy” 😂 hilarious
Me waiting one hour fifty one minutes and twenty five seconds: Where's Bobby Witt?
Me at one hour fifty one and twenty six seconds: VINDICATION
Ha! The Pee-tah stuff was hilarious and your self-breakdown was spot on.
regardless of the correctness of the rankings, it’s the depth of the thought process! keep putting your noggin into the lists and you’ll get better and better at it with the consistency of the task.
depending on their FA and trades this off-season, if the White Sox plan of improving defense plays out, Cease should crack the Top 50.
5 pitchers have thrown 200+Ks in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Cole, Gausman, Nola, Burnes, and Cease.
If he feels more confident to attack the zone because of the improved defense behind him (-17 team OAA in both 2022 and 2023), he will have another Top 3 CY Young finish.
IF they trade Cease. He will be a Top 10 player by the end of 2024.
Soto had a 1.026 away stats compared to like a .850 home
Yeah I remember he just forgot to put Altuve on the list. It must be hard to think of every single player who would be in conversation for the top 50 without forgetting anyone.
All I want for Christmas is for Bailey to explain the Faye Webster reference to me 🥺
"“A Dream About a Baseball Player” is Webster’s oldest song on the record, a snapshot of her one-time teenage crush on Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr.-who she actually met when she was invited to sing at a Braves game in 2019."
You need to have Logan Webb next time.
Agreed, most underrated starter in the game
I scrolled for a little while and didn't see it mentioned - your Correa footage is Goldschmidt one place early. It repeats for Goldy's actual spot one later. (Loved all 1:51:27 and married into a Furman Paladin family, it's all love Bailey 💙)
1:30:58 | “That’s pi” might be my favorite Bailey quote of all time
You should do a player performance/value top 50 ranking for the 2023 season and see how your list compares
Here was my top 20 before the 2023 season. Thought it turned out pretty good for the most part.
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Aaron Judge
3. Mike Trout
4. Jose Ramírez
5. Mookie Betts
6. Trea Turner
7. Juan Soto
8. Yordan Alvarez
9. Ronald Acuña
10. Julio Rodriguez
11. Freddie Freeman
12. Manny Machado
13. Paul Goldschmidt
14. Nolan Arenado
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Corbin Burnes
17. Sandy Alcantara
18. Fernando Tatis
19. Bryce Harper
20. Gerrit Cole
was excited to watch this and reflect on the 2023 season and left feeling sad about starting pitchers. excited about what some of the sophomores show in 2024 but scared for some of the younger guys who threw a ton of innings (webb, gallen especially with the playoff innings) after sandy looked unfazed by his innings load through the start of his career. worrying about great players instead of just being excited sucks as a fan.
How much do I have to donate on patron for a 58 minute foolish bailey video breaking down fastballs from Spencer strider and the reasons it the best?
This video is literally comfort
I would have to think Gallen is gonna demand more attention after the last couple seasons of 4-5 fwar.
I would love to see a video on catcher defensive metrics and the impact of umpires they have. It seems like a ton of hand waving to me. You could have told me realmuto had a great defensive year or a bad one and I would have believed you either way.
I really want to point out that Correa's issues this year were injury related, but it was the whole other ankle that was problematic (plantar fasciitis), and it sounds like it's not gonna be a problem next year. I think a Correa breakout year is absolutely on the table (but, obviously, far from given).
Cannot believe metrics have his defense so low
@@wesleyjohnson3240 That too. He definitely took a hit defensively, but imo the eye test showed he was still a plus defender. That arm is something else
As a Phillies fan, I also don't think JT calls pitches that well
I feel like you have to add more value for high WAR at positions like CF, SS, C, and relief pitchers because they are highly valued and in the case of catcher and reliever, much more difficult to get high WAR
I’m interested in seeing how statcast ends up generating the FRV, because springer in the negative seems a little weird
YES OMG I LOVE YOU BAILEY FOR THR FAYE WEBSTER REFERENCE
Requesting said hour long ramble on striders fastball 😇
Thanks for all the content foolish
Regarding Acuña and his defense--he just has such an uncomfortable jump out there and doesn't look great tracking balls. Obviously the arm is incredible but given his base-stealing prowess and the jump he's able to get on the base paths it's kind of surprising to me that that jump doesn't translate nearly as well to the outfield
Wander Franco does a little bit of everything, including minors
i just got into baseball in 2020 and ive been slowly paying more and more attention and what ive noticed is with a big free agent signing where they are changing scenery, ignore the first season, they will be great in the second year
That has definitely been the trend lately
@@FoolishBailey yoooooo u replied 🥹. btw im a huge reds fan and if u havent u should really look at matt mcclain as a potential candidate for the 5 players you like video. potentually could be due for a sophomore slump but in 86 games he put up 3.7 war hitting .290 with 16 bombs. everyone talks about elly but i think hes the future superstar on the reds
FOOLISH!!! How DARE you forget to include Bobby Witt Jr. ROYALS TAKING IT HOME THIS YEAR BABY!!!
I've been waiting patiently for this video just to find out youtube never told me it came out.
I LOVE HEARING FOOLISH TALK FOR HOURS LET’S GO
The advanced stats show that not including HR on your stats is massive mistake. 😢
1:09:39 so wholesome Bailey being so proud of his son
Using fWAR for pitchers. Bold move.
No Belli or Steele mentions? They killed it this year.
2 favorite videos every year
as a Twins fan I really hope Buxton can atleast play a full season at CF next year. Even if he doesnt go off the way he should, for his mental health getting a full season in has to happen next year.
Hey guys, I think there’s gonna be a little bit of a shake up in the pitcher rankings
Bailey: Nooo you can't predict injuries the human body isn't that simple!
Mets fans: Haha deGrom injury go brrrr
I double dog dare you to rank Tarik Skubal next year. 2 bWAR and 3.3 fWAR in only 80 innings.
Need to do a playoff top 25 that would be a really cool video to watch
Rafael Palmerio won a Good Glove in 1999 having only played 38 games in the field. This is the most extreme example I have, but you get the idea. They hand these things out based off of your bat more than anything else.