Portugal's Election: Another Win for the Right in Europe
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- čas přidán 17. 05. 2024
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On Sunday, Portugal went to the polls for its second election in just over two years, a few months after Antonio Costa's government collapsed in scandal. In this video, we take a look at the results, what they say about the Portuguese politics, and what's going to happen next.
Why the Far Right are on the Rise in Portugal - • Why the Far Right are ...
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1 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Po...
2 - www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/migu...
3 - www.politico.eu/europe-poll-o...
4 - www.japantimes.co.jp/news/202...
5 - www.theguardian.com/world/202...
00:00 - Introduction
00:49 - Context
02:55 - Election Results
06:19 - What Happens Next?
08:04 - Sponsored Content
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Portuguese here... very accurate analysis.
Not accurate in regards to saying the turnout was "historic". It was a significant reversal only because turnout was previously around 50% and was on track to be even lower. In the 70s and 80s the turnout was >80% and even >90% at times.
Portuguese here... many historic errors and misleading information.
I don't see how this is a very accurate analysis. In Tldr defense, they kept it simple, which is great, as it reduces the amount of misinformation. But if this is not too inaccurate, it is not a very relevant analysis either...
If no one explain what is inaccurate, it doesn't help us understand any better
@@radjalomas8854One example is; Costa never won two mandates in a row. The first one he lost, but made a coalition with the left parties to form a parliament majority and win the office. The party that won (PSD) was the one that had to deal with FMI and bankrupcy due to the socialist corruption scandal that involved the PM at the time, José Socrates. FMI was called during the socialist party mandate, and then they left and early elections were called. The following government (right wings party) had to deal with the chaos and proceeded to win the next elections, but then Costa came and did what I mention earlier and we had 8 years of Socialist government full of corruption cases, dropping two or three ministers every month. I hope it helped.
Just one thing, Antonio Costa did not win his first election, but was able to form a left wing majority in parliament, which was then named the “geringonça”
Antonio Costa didn't win, but the left won. Don't forget that we vote for the parties and not their leaders. Had Cavaco not chosen Antonio Costa to be PM, the government would have fallen.
A Rube Goldberg machine certainly, but not as efficient. 😂😂
With the far left
So a breakdown for foreigners because its a very weird situation here.
Portugal is currently facing several massive issues that have hit a crisis point and they're all related in some way or another.
-Immigration
-Rent crisis
-Cost of living crisis
-Stagnant economy
-An aging population
-Youth exodus
-Politics
So top to bottom.
Immigration -
Portugal is a very popular tourist destination and also one of the easiest gateways into Europe. This means we get tourists from both sides of the economic spectrum. Low income people come here to work the summer tourism boom, which services the high income tourists who come at the same time. We also have low income immigrants coming to gain European citizenship by working in whatever conditions they have to (read: anything from a decent job to borderline human trafficking) for the 5 year period required to gain citizenship.
Rent crisis -
Portugal is suffering from both of these demographics for opposing reasons. Low income immigrants eat up available housing. High income immigrants and tourists reduce the total amount of housing because its much more profitable for landowners to use their property as high cost AirBNB style holiday housing than to have it service permanent residents. Portugal is also a very popular place to emigrate to from high wealth nations and bad policy led to a massive boom of high income immigrants who bought up housing and cause a general cost of living inflation.
Cost of living crisis -
Due to the rent crisis and general inflationary elements the cost of living has been skyrocketing. As little as 4 years ago it was possible to survive on as little as 400 Euros a month (below minimum wage) if you lived in the right location in shared housing. Currently you'd be lucky if your rent alone was a bit over half of that in those same locations. Currently the minimum wage is no longer enough to survive in most locations. At the same time wages are almost completely stagnant (outside of government intervention) and most people are paid minimum wage even in more qualified types of jobs.
Stagnant economy/Aging population/Youth exodus -
The Portuguese economy is noncompetitive. This is both a culture issue and an economic one. The average Portuguese person wants to get a job and live comfortably without much in the way of effort. This isn't ethically a bad thing but on the scale of an entire country, a markedly socialist one at that, it causes a lot of issues. Around 30% of all jobs are in the public sector and a further 15% are in some way dependent on the public sector. Meaning roughly 45% of the entire job market is government provided and are seen as "secure" jobs. Once you have them its very difficult to lose them and many of those jobs are given to family or close friends. It's widely accepted that many of these jobs only exist because ending them would be both politically difficult. Furthermore many of those jobs are economically unproductive and rather serve a social or administrative function (healthcare, municipal documentation etc).
Add to this a rapidly aging population. Our population pyramid looks like someone flipped it upside down. We don't have many kids generally, this has been the case for a very long time. However due to our socialist policies we also have massive public spending to service a population that is rapidly becoming unable to contribute economically to the systems they benefit from. Notably this population holds the most public jobs and benefits the most from continuing our long standing socialist policies. Meaning essentially half the countries population is guaranteed to vote to continue those same policies. Policies the younger generations will have to support.
As a strange twist of fate those same socialist policies have also left the youth very well educated. The younger generation having exited university up till now are highly qualified and their skills are well sought after within the EU, but importantly not within Portugal. Our small private sector, with its very limited ability to service high education workers means that often your best avenue as a graduate for getting a job in your field is to just leave the country. Up till recently that has been the status quo. We lost a lot of young people but a lot of them decided they'd prefer to stay closer to home and just settled for something out of field and likely minimum wage. The same wage that has become almost completely unlivable. With the sudden deluge of crises and the looming threat of a generation of slaves to the older population, we're seeing a massive exodus. It's not uncommon to see almost entire classes of graduates pack up and leave as soon as they finish education. And the stories from those exodites of how much greener the grass is elsewhere have left many of those who remain simply biding their time till the economic opportunity to leave arises.
Politics -
Its important to divide politics in Portugal by the Social and the Economic. Many ideological combinations exist here that would seem bizarre to, for example, an American perspective.
Portugal has a complicated history. Many of the older generation still remember the times under a fascist government and many of them still believe we had it better off under it. It's sad to say but the older generations are shall we say, "socially immobile". Anti progressive sentiment is rooted deep within Portuguese culture and skews heavily with age. These are the old guard, rooted firmly in traditionalism. These people are socially conservative but economically socialist.
Then you have a middle aged demographic who has lived their lives under the current socialist status quo. They don't want things to change too much, they are about to reap the rewards of a lifetime of labor under this system and they expect that payday will come. They are rather mixed socially but favor a socialist economic policy.
And finally the younger generation who are completely all over the place but generally all agree that things can't continue any further under the current status quo. Their vote is highly dependent on where they live in the country. The further north you go the more educated and the less affected you are by immigration. The crises still affect those further north but at a much lesser extent than those in the south where almost all the countries tourism is concentrated.
Which leads us to the parties. I'll spare whoever reads this from going over all of them because there are quite a few but the major ones are.
PS - The Socialist Party, economically socialist, socially progressive. The current status quo, mired deeply in corruption, scandals and poor management. They are the former majority and lost a landslide worth of votes in the election that just happened. Formerly they were impossible to dislodge politically but their last wave of complete unmitigated disasters mobilized an otherwise apathetic voter base to vote on anyone but them.
AD - The Democratic Alliance, economically "less socialist", "less socially progressive" and "less" corrupt. The largest opposition party currently and the new majority as of this election. They are importantly a coalition of a number of different parties. Arguably a party of compromise but still a party of some mild change. Being a big tent majority in a parliament divided distressingly neatly into thirds will likely see them unable to pull together the political willpower to achieve anything at all. I'm letting my personal biases creep in here but yeah, it doesn't look good for them.
CHEGA - ENOUGH, economically "much less" socialist, Socially regressive. Their corruption is complicated (but still corrupt) they are both corrupt and offer the most corruption reform. The growing anti establishment party. They are substantially radical in their approach to resolving many of our current crisis issues and are arguably much more proactive in that regard. Their support base is very varied but is constituted heavily by the socially regressive, those who desperately want a solution to the quagmire we're currently in, actual card carrying fascists, and those who are essentially protesting the current status quo.
CHEGA are aggressively opposed by most other parties due to their social regressivism. Among their policies includes a ban on abortion, ceasing of gender based care and an anti immigration policy targeting specifically the low income bracket. They do not as some people say want to eliminate public healthcare and education but they do want to increase privatization of those areas via government incentive. A foreign audience might best understand CHEGA as a more sane version of the MAGA movement. More sane being relative.
Minor parties - There are many and they run the gamut from the genuinely great choices to the outright laughable. however due to needing to breach a certain threshold to get even a single seat in parliament, people are extremely hesitant to vote on them, rather voting tactically on a larger party.
And that does it for this essay. Please keep in mind I'm not an authoritative source and I get a decent amount of my information directly from party manifestos. Which historically and filled with lies damned lies and statistics. Public appearances of political parties in particular are much more inflammatory and maybe off key with their policy documents as you can imagine.
I also didn't cover what a lot of parties plan to do about the specific issues mentioned above but they have (on average) 180 page documents detailing that and it would be too much to go into. Many of them don't plan to really do anything or pay lip service to how they'll actually achieve those things.
I'm sure I'll get at least one or two other Portuguese people here popping in with their opinions and honestly, welcome, have a seat. We're all in the same shit sandwich here and if we can discuss our issues like adults that's better than can be said for most.
Can't edit check reply
Great summary man
The part with the economic issues sounds hilarious.
But in all honesty, I have literally no idea how I would solve the problem called "Portugal".
Countries like Germany can simply do some batshit crazy spending if they really wanted and everything would be fine, but Portugal?
And Jesus, 45% of the economy being dependent on the state sounds like an absolute nightmare. I didn't actually know the EU had so many economies that simply "don't work"
commie spoted
You use the term "socialist" very loosely. Portugal is a capitalist country. The only socialist parties in parliament are BE and PCP. PS is a traditional social-democrat party. PSD, while having social-democrat in its name behaves like a liberal conservative party. Otherwise good comment.
@@Chrissy717 We got some batshit spending with EU funds. Portugal got something our politicians called "the bazooka". An insane amount of money to invest in lithium, hydrogen, and other "green" stuff... And as you saw in the video, our government "stole" from that bazooka in the frauds that led to the dissolution of the government. PS controls everything(and almost everything state owned just takes money from the tax payer, because politicians just run these state companies in perpetual rotation to get higher salaries than they would get from being MPs) . And taxes are so high that there is little foreign investment, even with our stupid low salaries.
But the OP nailed it.
Portuguese here. What will happen? New elections soon.
Furter proof Portugal is Balkan
And the center right would lose even more seats , whyy not just ally with chega
@@karankapoor2701Very afraid of winning.
@@karankapoor2701 For sure that would make more sense BUT the leader of the party that "won" the election said very clearly: "No is No" regarding a coalition with Chega. So yeah, there is not much more that can be done to avoid new elections with the result being expected.
@@karankapoor2701 because they are obviously fascist? Why would you want to ally with fascists? Chega did form from members of PSD so there's a likely chance of a coalition, but no one would in their right mind say they would ally with the fascist party during the election campaign. And this isn't the anyone I dont like is fascist, this party constantly uses slogans used in the dictatorship, steals slogans from nazi Germany or fascist Italy, doing the salutes, etc
❤ Portugal 🇵🇹 from Latvia 🇱🇻
Greetings 🇱🇻🤝🇵🇹
ja, chega.
❤
Dude you are every where hahahah (and you will keep having my like every where) Greetings from Portugal to Latvia.
@@daniell.q.9597obridgada.
Hi,Hugs from Porto
There's some missing context here. We see that Chega won a lot of seats in areas of the country that have been ignored, such as Algarve. The centralization of the country around the capital has created this issue.
Não será a imigração? Mais isolado que Bragança não há e o Chega não ganhou lá.
Also in the North PSD has won almost every district. However, Chega votes were way lower there. Still we dont want the socialists again the more we go out of Lisbon
@@SR-wy5sy A imigração será um fator, certamente. Mas não façamos as pessoas passarem por racistas. O Chega venceu Faro porque é um distrito que ninguém do poder quer saber. Não fossem os turistas ingleses, a malta do Algarve passava fome, visto que é dos distritos mais pobres do país (Quase tão mau como os Açores, que estão a 2 mil kms de distância.)
Chega seems to have become a protest party. Blank votes, null votes and abstention have no power in the parliament, but voting on Chega does. And if people have a problem with the centralization of the country, then voting for Chega is the wrong move because they are against the regionalization of the country. Chega had their worst result in Porto and that's most likely one of the biggest proponents for their failure there.
Nearly all areas of the country have been ignored my dude.
6:14 if people want change, that's not a bad sign for a democracy, it's an excellent way to manifest those demands into something meaningful. It means that the system does not adequately satisfy the needs of the people
It is a bad sign for democracy if you vote for the fascist party. Come on man, if you want change you don't have to elect those who want to create a new republic, just like the previous dictator said and did. If there was more turnout with votes for democratic parties, then sure, but that's not the case
who said it was bad?
@@grimaffiliations3671 he said that high turn out can be a sign for good health in a democracy BUT that it also can mean change, here the but implies that it's not like the part before the but
@@tomlxyzhis use of the word "also" implies that he's referring to both. It can be a sign of good health and a desire for change
@@grimaffiliations3671the word but heavily emphasises to disregard anything before the but. Its a common grammatical feature of English.
Instead of a "but" you would usually place a "it" or leaving it out when possible, putting both parts on a more equal or even co-dependent status.
I am living in Lisbon for 3 years now. The housing situation is totally out of hand.
Even people from richer countries can't afford a normal flat. I can understand that the people had enough. I will leave in Mai.
if houses are expensive in Portugal they will get even more expensive with CHEGA in power!!!
go away. you aren't welcome anyway. you are the problem. nevertheless chega doesn't solve anything. they will only make it worse not better
@@pedrosilvasouto7320 dude, stop parroting the left. We had enough of you.
@@brunomorgado9347or else what?
What do you expect when half the population of Africa, Mid East , Asia want to move and live in Europe, often with no funds of their own
Guys, you didn't talk about the best part. Apparently, thousands of people confused the coalition AD with another similarly named party ADN, which like Chega is also anti-establishment. ADN did not manage to elect a single MP but some analysts suspect they might have made the AD lose at least 3 MPS due to the confusion.
Well, i would say that is the best part but it is funny has hell.
People should have to do an IQ test before voting. The guy form ADN is so..... dumb.... Remember when he said that everyone should go to tarrafal.
I don't think that was such a big problem as the news outlets seemed to say. I think its a shoddy excuse to try and justify a loss for not having a majority.
@@TheBaldOne AD definitely lost a reasonably decent amount of votes because of it. It could have given AD at least one more MP in large urban centers like Porto or Lisbon.
@@miguelpadeiro762 PSD and PPD are the same party, PPD is the old name and PSD is the newer one
@@miguelpadeiro762 Apparently enough people were that led the AD to launch a formal complain.
How about the addressing the issues why people vote for these populists😅
Yeah, ignoring the causes/problems is the whole reason why these identity parties are rising. It's because European politicians are out of touch with their people.
Because, for the same reason the far right grows internationally, people are unhappy with the current economic system but advocating against it is somehow worse due to all the red scare propaganda
no no cant have that!
That means they have to admit they treat dirty foreigners better than their own people.
Exactly. Populism is the immune system fighting against the lieberal virus.
The populists heavily relied on the other two parties have been involved in corruption scandals.
Which was the reason the election was called.
Portuguese here.
I've been critical of your previous videos, but this is one of the best analysis of what happened on the 10th of march.
It sucks people had to vote Chega, but between the turnout and both AD/PS results, I hope politicians pay attention to what's happening in Portugal.
The establishment parties have completely lost touch with the people, especially the younger voters.
There is a grave need for serious changes in housing policy, migration, taxation, and social life (benefits, etc...).
Both establishment parties spent 50 years in power since the dictatorship fell, they are the only ones responsible for this chaos.
Susegadoooooo 🇵🇹
As a Portuguese, I can tell that chega is the better solution. Portugal thinks it's a Nordic country. It's just not. We don't have oil-rich soil like Norway and Sweden. The young generation is fleeing the country towards Germany and France, where the money flows. Portugal is now a country of seniors. The right wing is the only way for the country to survive.
imagine voting for hitler and being proud of it
now wonder hitler won, people are true sheep and easily get brainwashed
chega won't do anything for the country, it's just sad that the alternatives suck
Just to add that it's not only the Portuguese leaving the country, anyone that wants to do something with their life (if they were not born rich) needs to leave Portugal, I know people from Romania that went back to their countries, countless people from India and Nepal that once they got their passport they left immediately to another country including my girlfriend, her family moved to Denmark and in 1 year they are already starting to buy a house, in Algarve where I live they are only building luxury apartments it shows the priorities of countries, a country like Denmark actually cares about people and they have affordable housing, conclusion is any honest lower income person or young person that wants to make something of themselves and have a better life for them and their family knows Portugal is not for hard working people..
The video points this out itself, but isolating the growing anti-establishment discontent and just doubling down on old policy just won't work. All of these outlets keep throwing a tantrum that these right wing populist parties are on the rise, but that's only the case because mainstream politics is outright ignoring a huge sector of their electorate. Just look at Denmark, their establishment parties quickly reacted and adopted new policies when this happened there in the 2010s, and as a result it's just a non-issue there by now. The more the establishment ignores these people, the more they will feel disenfranchised and want even more drastic change.
I am from Portugal. This was a superb analysis 👌 let's see what comes next but it is important that AD and PS understand why Chega is growing. If the Center is disconnected from the people's problems and hides itself behind politically correct platitudes, then the extremes will continue to grow. Portugal has a tone of problems and if AD is not able to start paving the way for solutions, then i can definitely see Chega winning the next General Election
Hi
Those *logos* looks like a mix between cheap washing powder brands and energy-drink brands LOL
We have low budgets to work with 😂😂
As a Portuguese, I can confirm we will have elections again this year.
Lool
No, you cant. The new government has options on hand and they can tie professor compensation and police compensation to the budget, that will make it unpalatable for either side to vote against, in particular the Socialists that will most likely will not face elections because there is a socialogic majority in the right they cant fight right now, their abstention will give this Government two years to live, because Constitutional constraints will make dissolution impossible in late 2025 and early 2026, at the very earliest June 2026.
You can bitaitar, not confirmar, no.
Not this year, just next year, government will fall because " orçamento de estado" wont get approved in parlament by the left, and Chega wont vote in favor or agaisnt.
As a colombian, I admire your food. The sardines are amazing there. Best wishes
You started your video by falling into one of the most common misconceptions. The problem isn't with the d'Hondt method. The problem is that several of the electoral circles are quite small due to population distribution and elect just a few representatives (3, 4, 5... Lisbon for exemple elects 48 and Porto 40). Whatever method you use favors larger parties in those circles because the threshold to elect becomes quite high. A lot of votes are just plain useless. Chega for the first time managed to clear those thresholds all around the country.
Hondt is deeply problematic. Ranked voting is the modern proper democratic alternative.
With a third party now big enough to benefit from it, it'll probably kill the momentum to change the system (which was rising for the first time).
@@TugaAvenger Yes, I also agree. The only chance and that's not a great one is if the Liberals get a compensation circle as part of some deal with PSD. Or at least some circles are merged. Now it's even turning against the creator. The Out of Portugal circles which were basically free PS/PSD representatives are going to be funny.
@@BernasLLHow can ranked voting work for a proportional parliamentary election?
@@Spido68_the_spectatorproportionality is a lie on itself.
It’s strange to see what Europeans consider right wing in comparison to US politics.
Or maybe what is strange is what US right wing politics have become?
This illusion about the United States being a deep right-wing country is objectively wrong.On economic issues, aside healthcare they are on par with most European nations, student loans are being forgiven, benefits are getting more and more gifted to the public and on social issues they are more progressive than a lot of EU countries.Honestly, in some cases, straight up idiotic with certain woke points.
Republicans are right-wing, they aren't centre-right and they are not far-right. In Europe, centrism is considered centre-right, centre-right is considered right-wing and all others far-right "extremists". GOP are right-wing conservatives. Right-wing is right-wing in Europe and the USA and so it's the case with the left-wing.
The difference is that in Europe, the gravity of the political spectrum is on the centre and both centre-right and centre-left parties have the same strategic goals for Europe and their respective countries on the fundamental issues (economy, foreign policy, immigration).
The tactical management of these issues is what sets them apart.
It's evident in the coalitions of the EU parliament and the formations of the last several EU commissions.
@@radjalomas8854 you imply that left wing politics isn't a god awful mess, may I remind you of the immigrants they let in en masse?
European "right wing" parties are usually only culturally right wing but economically left wing. For example the far right party in Sweden is the most economically left wing big party in Sweden
The Conservative party in Uk is regarded as Right wing when in reality you would not call it centre right
It would be also important to mention what, to me, is the most incredible fact of Portuguese politics right now - the votes from Portuguese migrants living abroad can actually significantly shift the balance of the partliament. A very unusual fact, particularly as it accounts to only 4 parliament seats.
Tell me, how will those 4 make a difference.... so majority is 117 , PSD has 77, PS 76 ..... no one can rule alone so..... what is the difference if is PSD 81 - PS 76 or PSD 78 - PS 79
what is the difference? do you want bragging rights? is really that important to say how won? no one won! It does not mater!
2 million Portuguese citizents emmigrated. 2Million!!! and they only vote in 4 seats. A Portugues immigrant vote is worth a lot less than a resident. Not even close.
@@diogocambrian Which is perfectly fine. The people living the consequences of their choice should have more of a say. And that can be dangerous: see how the Turkish diaspora votes for Erdogan much more than at home.
@@Torresmos not really, its just ironic that this is probably the first election in history (where migrant vote is counted) where a migrants have the ability to shift the power balance in Parliament...and the math is really simple...PS has 77 seats, AD+ADN has 79 seats...there are 4 seats (2 for europe + 2 for non-europe) seats that will be assigned based on expat votes - history tell us that each voting district usually assigns all seats to a Party, if that happens there is a scenario where PS could end up with 81 seats vs AD+ADN 79...
The fact that this is even possible is a completely surreal scenario in Portugal and quite unusual/unique in politics worlwide...
@@diogocambrian some countries don't even count expat votes...for all that matters - most politics implemented by the Portuguese government have zero impact on expats (unless you are one of those who, allegdely, moved abroad for a year or two...with the objective of returning to enjoy the tax breaks the Portuguese government is offering)
In case you don't already know, Chega in English is "enough". Enough of corruption, Enough of the increase in violence, Enough of rampant immigration, etc!
The establishment left politicians would sooner say "don't vote for the racists" than "let's fix the housing crisis and high inflation", because one of those platforms doesn't cost their rich friends anything.
You really think more Capitalism and free market economics of chega gonna solve your problem of housing? 😂
@@bloodwargaming3662 The establishment left is capitalist.
0:16 "centre-right social-democrats..."
There is something fundamentally wrong calling social democracy a right leaning ideology. Social democrats are centre-left leaning and they once tried to join the Socialist International up until they were vetoed by their supposed rivals Socialists in Portugal. That is where the root cause is found explaining the current situation: PSD and PS are essentially aligned.
Those are just buzzwords and every country used them differently.
In sweden the "extreme right" party is called "sweden democrats"
@@BOO-ii3ni Politics is all about ideology. Having a poitical spectrum conisting only of a single uniparty is the root cause. And it is not buzzwords, it is the essence of politics: these parties are all left leaning following the same policies. People are starting to realize they are to blame and people are trying to get away.
And this lunacy calling socialism right leaning (and so on, socialist parties trying to join the Socialist international as right-wing etc) is beyond words, it is gaslighting.
Talking over Portugal in particular, there is nothing more to say: both PSD and PS are more or less socialists tied to socialist policies, and the connection to the Socialist International is the least one can say about their political stance.
@@giannisantypas9316 europe is basically a giant social welfare experiment that will end badly, in europe we cannot see it because its all we know and right wing or left wing its all the same, from the usa they notice it right away, its socialism and socialism is the way for communism when society collapses, these socialists will make the state take over the whole economy.
Generous farm subsidies is not a left or right issue and should be unanimously advocated for since it's the food that either goes directly fresh to your supermarket or used for derivatives to make packaged food. And the entire industry is at the whims of rain, sun and seasonal weather with bare margins of profit to sustain itself.
It's a left and right issue because the left lives under the impression that food spawns at the supermarket and all that farmers do is powerslide their tractors for fun all year.
"Chega" means "Arrive" but it also means "Enough".
In this situation is enough..
As mentioned by others D'Hond doesn't explain the unproportionality, but D'Hond in electorates does.
The result of the election was:
AD: 79
PS: 77
CHEGA:48
IL: 8
BE: 5
CDU: 4
LIVRE: 4
PAN: 1
The simple nationwide D'Hond result would be:
AD: 71 (-8)
PS: 69 (-8)
CHEGA: 43 (-5)
IL: 12 (+4)
CDU: 7 (+3)
LIVRE: 7 (+3)
PAN: 4 (+3)
ADN: 3 (+3)
ADN (a far-right party) which got almost as many votes as PAN didn't get any seats.
The effect of the electorates can easily be seen if you look at the result by electorates. The 3 big parties AD, PS and CH won seats in virtually every electorate (PS in every single won, AD and CHEGA in every electorate but one). The smaller parties on the other hand (IL, BE, CDU, LIVRE, PAN and ADN) got all of their seats in the electorates of Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Setúbal and Aveiro, which happen to be the 5 largest electorate.
In smaller electorates the result is actually pretty crazy.
The electorate of Beja for example had the following result:
PS: 31.7%
CH: 21.6%
AD: 16.7%
CDU: 15.0%
BE 4.4%
but seats were:
PS: 1 Seat
CH: 1 Seat
AD: 1 Seat
CDU: 0 Seats
BE: 0 Seats
Because the electorate is only 3 seats you get the crazy result that its actually mathematically correct that both PS and AD should get 1 seat, because of the way the system works.
To clear up confusion you have to calculate the actual seats based on the electoral vote the parties got.
PS: 0.95 Seats
CH: 0.65 Seats
AD: 0.50 Seats
CDU: 0.45 Seats
BE 0.13 Seats
As you notice, no one got enough seats to be even entitled to 1 seat. 32% of 3 is less than 1. So we have to look at who is closest to 1, which is PS. Next closest is CH, who gets seat 2. Third is confusingly AD with its 0.5 seats, because despite PS getting double the vote of AD, AD is technically closer to its 1 seat, than anyone else is to their 1 or PS and CH are to their second.
Conversely CDU got almost as many votes as AD. But we already split the 3 seats to the parties that deserve it most. The problem of course is that essentially half the votes of PS were actually pointless, 5% of CHEGA voters could just have stayed home and they would still have gotten the seat, AD needed every single vote, because their lead to the CDU was very close and despite carrying 15% of all votes, which is significant every single CDU voter wasted their vote. Its in fact so wasted that if half far-left voters just voted PS instead of CDU, PS would have gotten 2 seats and AD 0.
I am sorry but a system which can give these weird results just by tactically voting we have a problem. This can easily be fixed if something like 10% of seats are just levelling seats btw. The electorates aren't the problem. My favorite electoral system (Denmark) actually has electorates and even the possibility to vote for just a candidate. But because its so good and an open list, Denmark is actually the only country with both the advantage of local candidates like in FPTP while having a parliament based on proportional vote for parties. More nations should just copy their system. Its the gold standard.
Excellent Response. The artifacts of the current method are pretty serious and do not conduct to an healthy and transparent democracy. Any over centralization of power and opinion is too be avoided. Small partys should get more representation at it leads to a transparent and diverse democracy.
Nicely articulated. If you were to tally the national votes and perform a straightforward calculation - determining the percentage of votes each party received out of the total votes, excluding null and "white" votes, and then multiplying these percentages by the number of seats - you would witness a significant shift in the composition of the parliament, resulting in a greater diversity of parties.
| Party | D'hohnt District | D'hohnt Nation | Percentage |
|-----------------------|---------------------|---------------------|-------------------|
| PS | 77 | 69 | 66 |
| AD | 76 | 68 | 66 |
| CH | 48 | 43 | 42 |
| IL | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| BE | 5 | 10 | 10 |
| CDU | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| L | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| PAN | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| ADN | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| PSD_CDS | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| RIR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| JPP | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PCTP_MRPP | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ND | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| VP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| E | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MPTA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PTP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PPM | 0 | 0 | 0 |
@@danielcordeiro6003 Interesting results. But some parts confuse me. I calculated my D'Hondt result with a website called "Staatsrecht Honikel" and got slightly different results, with RIR not getting a seat.
I assume this is because I counted DA + Madeira First and the independent candidacy of the PPM in Madeira as one singular entity. Would be funny if that flipped the seat in the end.
Do you use any calculator website for your calculations?
You're just missing how D'Hondt influences how voters cast their votes.
People avoiding the "spoiled vote" means they simply don't pay the same attention to smaller parties that have "no chances" in their regions, and heavily calculate that into their final decision.
We need ranked choice voting!
I'll just caveat that the bizarre ADN, though rambling, conspiracional and useful "id*ots" to Putin, are not in fact far-right. Yet.
You barely say in the video the amount of seats required for a majority: kinda an important omission when talking about parliamentary system.
Total seats is 230 (as said in the video), majority is 115 +1 (it's just a simple division by half).
116
Stop be lazy, and watch the video
116
"An uncomfortable dilemma about what to do next." How about listening to what voters are telling you, and fixing their problems?
Portugal's problems have no simple or quick solution.
Regarding corruption, our politicians aren't imported from corrupt 3rd world shitholes, they mirror our petty, selfish, narrowminded society, they reflect the ingrained culture.
The immigration issue was caused by two generations, the millenials and genZ, of hedonistic spoiled brats that strectched the teenager lifestyle of partying and wasting money into adult age, instead of saving money, having a family and a couple of kids to replace the aging population. Two hedonistic barren generations is why Portugal and many countries in Europe need this much immigration.
None of these spoiled brats want to take dirty back-breaking jobs changing diapers in old folk nursing homes or in construction, hence the need for immigrants to keep our economies going and the social security paying retiment and pensions.
No. It is the voters who are wrong.
Hi
The 82% majory of voters who didn't vote for this basket case of neofascists is not going to listen to a 18% minority made up of Alzheimer striken geriatrics and zoomers that were told by social media that being neofascist is cool and trendy.
People want change, so they’re changing which party they vote for. Democracy at work.
Well said!
Very well said!
No! Democracy is when establishment wins!
I'm from Portugal and this is a great presentation! Good work!
This is amazing work! Congrats 👏👏👏
I've been following the Portuguese elections and political sphere for quiet some time and I have this to say:
The 2 leading parties AD and PS, are a rather angry at the voters for weaponizing their votes by voting "Chega" to make them lose the majority and force them to negotiate with someone they deeply dislike.
I think that is rather sad and infantile behavior, that the politicians think the Portuguese people have a vendetta against the establishment, (can't fathom why...) and because of that they voted on the political party that nobody gets along with.
The fact is the Portuguese have lost faith in those "main" parties and in the elections were more people voted, with the least abstinence in 2 decades, these 2 parties did not got the majority and a new comer, Chega, rose to almost 19% in record time.
Democracy does work.
ngl as a portuguese, it would be hilarious if it wasn't sad, the socialists wanted to keep PSD so hard out of goverment that instead helped create a far right monster...
AD isn't a political party, it's a coalition of 3 parties (1 being so minor that it almost doesn't count).
there is left-wing third parties
@@puraLusalol CDS right now it's close to the monarchics XD, they are only alive thansk to the coalition
@@ASocialistTransGirlthe left wing options suck though. One of them even supported Russia in their invasion of Ukraine. They've been in the opposition for decades yet they never actually tried to change the country like Chega, they're just status quo parties. People are desperate for change so they're voting Chega, the only one who are loud about wanting change.
Portugal wasn't immune to right-wing populists. Like with literally everything else, we just arrive late at the party
Literally and figuratively.
It was expected that Portugal and Spain would be more immune than the others.
The left-wing needs to stop hating, stop being the victim, and embrace the family again...
fighting racism by constantly pointing out race doesn't work...
@@matthewkinoshita1932but notice how it's the democratic right saying that the far right is xenophobic and racist...
What do you mean by "right win populists"? Voting for the right is as valid as it is voting for the left or the center. Stop that silly narrative that everything on the right side of the democratic spectrum is bad.
was nice to see fresh original images
Wake up EUROPE save our borders. ✝️☦️🇪🇺
Has immigration in Portugal increased?
Yes.@@randomhuman2595
@@randomhuman2595since 2017 a lot primarily from Brazil and Indian subcontinent
Just as a visual correction. In the graph at 7:42. The CDU in Germany is usually coloured black not dark-blue.
Portugal, Finland, Sweden, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Austria, Germany and Denmark... who's next?
Spannish far right is decreasing I think
@@Mpl3564 spain is the most left wing communist black hole in europe, giant state, small economy, its like italy. even the so called right wing there is in favour of social welfare state.
I would like to see portuguese main media speak in such a clear-sighted way. Very good 👌
It's not just a housing problem. Public services are in shambles, namely health public services, education and the justice system + security services being ditched. PS had all the opportunities to solve problems, even a majority in Parliament and they did zero or next to zero. Of course people would want to change...
"change" what?! do you really belive that CHEGA will change anything?
If things are bad in Portugal they are about to become worse with CHEGA
@@pedrosilvasouto7320 typical PS mentality
@@afonsovaz4186i'm not PS
@@pedrosilvasouto7320 You don't get the point, do you? Even if it was a different party playing the role of CHEGA, let's say a populist left-wing party, people would still vote for the supposed "change". Because they are tired of the Status-Quo double party system rule (Either PS or PSD governments). They are looking for something else. And the future is not ideology bent. It's solution-based to everyday problems, either you start solving them with practical and visible solutions, or you will have people voting in the parties like CHEGA and the likes. Of course it has everything to go wrong, because when bitter people base their votes with high hopes, and those hopes are not corresponded in the end, you know how and where it ends. See ya.
Chega is not Eurosceptic. In reality there's only 2 parties that are against the EU and those are the far-left parties (Bloco de Esquerda e CDU).
What does BE and CDU have against the EU?
@@goncalocarneiro3043 Go read their electoral program
@@goncalocarneiro3043 CDU is funded by Russia.
Chega absolutely is "soft" eurosceptic, similar to BE. They don't advocate leaving, but they absolutely pander to the "Brussels bureaucrats", "national sovereignty" nonsense. And they'd probably make more noise if there was the appetite for it, but we're one of the most pro-EU countries.
@@goncalocarneiro3043 CDU did vote againist integrating the EU (the only party to do so). BE is more anti-NATO than anti-EU. Both want out of NATO tho.
Thank you for your report!
A grand coalition scenario seems highly unlikely - Pedro Nuno Santos has already refused to support an AD government and wants to lead the opposition. It is consistent with his more left wing stance. Nonetheless some more moderate figures in PS have defended a dialogue between the two parties. The last speaker of the Assembly, A. Santos Silva said both parties should work on structural reforms, namely justice. And today, António Costa himself has said he prefers "legislatures that finish their terms" meaning he wants AD to have conditions to govern and not another round of elections by the end of the year.
What everyone is waiting now is the distribution of the 4 seats elected by the diaspora (2 from Europe and 2 from the rest of the world). They should be known by the end of next week. Ultimately they will not bring anything new, but there is a twist. AD was only an electoral coalition, and by Portuguese law these arrangements are dissolved when the results are published. Meaning the 79 seats by AD are actually 77 by PSD and 2 by CDS (PPM failed to elect). Well, 77 seats are the same as PS. In effect, both parties are tied. While the right wing has a clear majority, the biggest party is traditionally the first to form a government.
The current narrative of the winning party to govern in minority is that if the second biggest party wanted to bring it down it would have to ally with Chega which would be morally complicated. So, while the 4 diaspora seats will probably change nothing, they are still a relevant issue.
Also, the "bizarre issue" of this election was the ADN party, originally a populist centrist party founded 10 years ago that was hijacked by anti-lockdown conspiracy theorists. It grew from a mere 10k votes 2 years ago to 100k last Sunday. In fact, most of these were people that confounded it with the AD coalition (generally PSD runs alone or their coalitions have slogans as names). I myself know about someone who voted ADN by mistake. While ADN didn't elect any deputy, it will receive by law some 300k from the State. But most importantly it is estimated that this confusion costed AD some 3, 4 deputies and a victory in the Santarém district.
About Chega, it has its strength in the southern half of the country. South of the Tagus, it is the biggest right-wing party which is no small thing. An interesting oddity (or not so much) is that many of its new votes come from the old communist electorate, that was more anti-establishment than left-wing.
In fact, Chega won the Algarve. There are many issues that can explain it, but the recent cuts in water consumption due to the chronic drought seem to have been sort of a last drop (pun very much intended).
Finally just a small detail. At 6:41 the AD contrast should include the 3 circles in a sort of blue/greenish colour to the right of it. Those were the three deputies elected by the PSD in Madeira. On the archipelago, the AD didn't run (PPM there didn't join PSD/CDS), but the three deputies are part of the winning bloc just like any other PSD deputy. This small confusion is why in some places you see the AD with 79 deputies and in others just 76.
Well I just wanted to give my small contribution. Despite everything I think these elections brought us close to regular European political dynamics. May the parties learn to talk and compromise between themselves. If this scenario may hold up it can be the start of a new circle indeed. Let's see.
Thanks for all your work, from a daily portuguese follower.
Pelase keep our country present in your reports. A story about how we manged to bring our public debt to below 100% of the GDP could be interesting. Have a great week!
"The system is broadly proportional". Only if you compare it to the likes of the UK and USA. We should hold a much higher standard.
If you compare it to the vast majority of the democratic world it is broadly proportional, not just UK or US. Yet, indeed you are right, we should hold it to higher standards! Let's go!
The main reasons for this would be the impact on sincere (non-strategic) voting and on abstention. Way more than impact on specific parties, which is always the line of argument made by "city parties".
For a very non-partisan and technical analysis on the matter and using Portuguese data, even if a bit old now, I seriously recommend scrolling through "Determinants of Electoral Behavior: A Study Using Individual-Level Data", freely available on the internet.
@@MaxiMonkU2B Let's go ranked voting! Let's go non voting circle parliament deputees for result callibration.
Thanks! Added to the reading list.
What exactly is wrong with the current system? It is pretty much same as in other European democracies.
@@ostrobothnian9995 Other than big electoral circles (districts), most often you cannot hope to elect anyone not in a big party, and almost certainly never in a non-parliamentary party, making "strategic voting" on big, old parties the only way of having a "valid" vote, making most people vote on "not that party, so the other one", jumping between the two across decades.
The circles are also drawn in a way than barely resembles the population sizes, creating supervoters and "subjugated" voters.
This is far less democratic than ranked voting, which is present in some more modern democracies.
Democracy means being able to chose your favourite from the whole of civil society, not being de facto limited the lesser evil between two choices elected by backstage opaque capital-centric party politics.
This limits the results (to Lisbon based power players with influence in the media, influencial lisboners even extremely often being placed in other circles as opposed to natives of those districts), and heavily conditions civil debate around elections, artificially stagnating politics, and stopping most wanna-be politicians that don't want to go through the established parties' internal politics and be molded in their image.
@@ostrobothnian9995 The "issue", which is not as big as it may seem, but it is still frustrating is that there are a lot of votes wasted.
There is literally a wikipedia article named "Wasted vote", which sums up the matter rather quickly 🙂
This is a surprisingly correct article coming from a channel that is not from it's home country of the news. You got your research realy well made on Portugal political reality, congratulations!
Portugal's House Crsis is like Canaada lol.
yay canada sucks XD (canadian)
@@Snake369atleast ur prices for 2 bedroom apartment isn't close to 50% abvor the minimum wagd
@ShayNoMore1 I'm not sure how exactly to interpret what you're saying but the situation here is likely as bad or possibly much much worse than you think. min wage of 16.55/hr at 40 hrs/wk at roughly 4.3333 was per month is ~2870/month. avg rent for 2bedroom can vary quite a bit depending on the city but roughly say 2400/month. that roughly works out to 100% of one person's income going solely to housing. we're pretty fucked here.
@@ShayNoMore1 one room in Canada Cost over $2000 or more.
@@jared4walsh I'm remembering tht student tht flies form Alberta to Vancouver everyday for university cus it's cheaper then renting
I think the reason the eurosceptic parties are rising is because some people are looking at the question of if the EU is doing anything to fix the problems they face. And for a lot of people, the answer to that question is no. Yeah. Open borders are nice if you can actually afford to travel, but what does that do for the poor who can't travel? What do the worker protections do for the unemployed? What good is a single market if you cannot afford to buy anything? I'm honestly surprised that there hasn't been a socialist eurosceptic party emerge in a lot of countries.
What imaginary "open borders" are you talking about?
What should the EU do prevent hundreds of dinghies from crossing the Med? Build a wall in the Mediterranean Sea? Shoot the boats and kill everybody on board, as if all countries where those people come from wouldn't cancel all trade agreements with Europe leaving us with no access to the resources we need to keep our economies going? Turn Europe into a genocidal pariah with declining economies?
Perhaps mass deportation? Do you even know how much it costs and what's required to deport people? Each deportation process costs between 15.000 and 20.000€, my dude. It also requires cooperation with the country of origin of the deportee and many aren't willing to cooperate because sending their people to Europe is a way to not having to deal with their problems and the populace revolt against growing poverty in their countries.
Your ignorance is what makes you think there's simple solutions to extremely complex issues and makes you take political choices like lemmings running blindly to the cliff, dooming Europe to collapse.
The West is losing its dominance, we can no longer boss around poor african countries, we need to tread carefuly if we don't want to be starved of energy and resources we need to keep our economies going and even our survival assured.
Get an education and grow some critical thinking. This isn't the imperial age anymore. We need diplomatic solutions that take time. Meanwhile learn to live frugalily because there's two major wars going on simultaneously that are screwing the world economy, housing crisis and inflation are global. Your grandparents faced food rationing and bigger poverty than you're facing now. Buckle up and thoughen up, the worst is yet to come and electing people with tyrannical impulses that antagonize global players due to racism and xenophobia will make everything worse.
An ignorant populace is the doom of every nation. Europe had educated people after WWII, but apparently now has a lot of dimwits that can't even learn from recent historical events of WWII and the demagoguery that gave rise to Mussolini, Hitler, Franco and Salazar that installed tyrannical regimes on nativist, isolacionist and minority-blaming rhetoric.
Lay off Telegram and grab and History book.
People are fed up
Thanks for clarifying.
We, the Portuguese don't know how to explain this, thanks for your help.
Farming subsidies in the current environment are much more right wing than left wing. Farmers have aligned themselves with the right wing parties across Europe (and in America and Canada), and the parties are returning the favor with the subsidies.
Government subsidies is a left wing thing to do. Right wing governments don’t get involved.
Portugal, like everywhere else in Western Europe, is getting totally fed up of mass immigration. Chega will go from strength to strength.
Yes, stop mass immigration.
That and the bullshit woke and gender identity that the left tried to impose on schools, only to have that not approved because it was deemed unconstitutional by the court and the president.
We need a right government this shit is getting out of hand and the left is only burying this country even further.
In Portugal, we already have several minority governments in which the party in power seeks agreements on the left or right to approve measure by measure.
But some analysts argue they could try something new "Blackmail", basically they take popular measures and present measures and budgets without any negotiation and the opposition either approves it or we go to elections.
Amazing video lads
Small detail that you guys missed: there are still 4 seats to be distributed, from the embassies, which typically are split between PS and PSD, but in case PS actually gets 3 and PSD 1 it will result in a tie, just making it more fun 🤣
These are voters abroad right? Voters abroad generally tend to be center-right in most country, not uncommonly, voting for the left if they think the right is too radical and vice versa for the left
I think there´s a high chance Chega will get one
@@Bajolzas Some journalists estimate that Chega might actually get two.
The idea is, the socialists win the Europe circle and get one MP there, and Chega on 2nd get another.
But then, the AD win Rest of the World getting the 1st seat there, but CHEGA come on 2nd and get the second seat there.
So PS and AD get one more each and Chega gets two more
It's a possibility, but I think this election of 2024 by the Portuguese expatriates will have a different result from the last one. Several of the more recent and qualified Portuguese emigrants who have left Portugal in recent years blame the policies of the party in power (PS) until now for their situation of having to live outside of Portugal. Furthermore, the electoral participation of Portuguese emigrants, in line with what happened in Portugal, also increased and it is possible that the results that occurred in Portugal will also occur among Portuguese living abroad, or will be even worse for the party that was in the government. Instead of two parties (PS and PSD) electing the 4 representatives (2 in Europe and 2 out of Europe), as until now, there could be three parties electing representatives, making the political situation even more complex and unstable. Next week the results of the votes cast by the Portuguese living abroad will be known. There are several unknowns that will be clarified.
Chega Will probably take at least one of those seats
Immigration of south asians in Portugal is out of control, is the reason of the far right victory in the south. Is very sad, both things.
And Brazilians
Great analysis
Being against uncontrolled immigration is not far-right but common sense.
But then there first must be uncontrolled immigration, and not just a feeling that one exists. Also, there are priorities, things way more important than immigration, like health, education, reduction of social and economic inequality, etc.
no major party is for uncontrolled immigration
also, something isn’t common sense just because you agree with it
@@jorge6207maybe for you those issues are more important for a lot of other people we would much rather be poor and portuguese than to let this shit go on
@@azelucy1798 Ok, but I still don't see what 'shit' is going on? Immigration? I live in the suburbs of Lisboa, in Queluz, and see no major problem. On the other hand, I'm 49 years old and never had a family doctor, despite asking for one twice. The health centre I must go to is the pinnacle of incompetence and notgivingadamn, and I see no immigrants having a role on this.
@@jorge6207 Dude, you live in a buble, try to live instead in a place where imigrants are almost 50% of the population. The classic "ur dur but whre I live there is no problem dur" doesnt work, just shows how dumb you are.
A simple breakdown from a portuguese guy born & living in the Algarve region of Portugal:
Our country will make in this year's April 25th its 50th year since the last revolution, in which we freed ourselves from a dictatorship. Since then, it's been 50 long years of this country's government being being disputed solely by PS and PSD parties and filling this country with corruption scandals, absurd increments in taxes and horrible working and living conditions which keep pushing Portugal towards more and more misery. Regions outside main cities tend to be ignored and forgotten by those parties and this can be seen more in regions like the Algarve, which contributes a lot of revenue for the nation with tourism but gets almost nothing in return and is always last on the list for improvements.
We are sick and tired of this PS/PSD that is always more of the same bullcrap and if we want things to change, another party besides those two must rise to make that diference. This country only got worse and worse being ruled by PS and PSD parties taking turns one after the other and will never get any better until we shift into something else.
Many voters are too stupid and give their loyalty to those parties and follow them almost like a religious cult, wich doesn't help much, either. Our only hope is for younger folks to wake up and start casting their votes into something else
Actually, two of the PSD' 79 seats are CDS' (one of the two smaller parties in the coalition). So, PSD and PS have both 77 seats. So, as recap: PSD (77) PS (77) and CDS (2).
Who is CDS? if you are portuguese you understand the joke...HAHAHAHAHA
Come back Xicão, we miss you.
@@TorresmosSou português, e não entendo. É porque o CDS-PP não teve nenhum lugar nas eleições de 2022?
@@Writer_Productions_Map porque ninguém votou neles..
@@Writer_Productions_Mapsim
*People getting citizenship while knowing ZERO Portuguese is messed up. You go to other countries and you have to deeply study the language and work there while having people look at you sideways to even try and get citizenship. I have an Indian friend with citizenship that never married a Portuguese woman or had portuguese relatives and also didn't work here for 5 years. He is now in another country. We should give preference to people who want to stay here with a proper living plan for a minimum of 10 years. Don't like the wages and/or culture here? Go to another county for citizenship and see how hard it is compared to here. Next generations will have many "bootleg" portuguese people, unless a portion of expats who stay here start respecting and adapting to the country, language and culture. Also, a lot of brazilians carry over their bad habits and lifestyle. By the way, CHEGA is not the solution, they are borderline xenophobic...*
Great analysis sir!
Basically unless the leader of the center/right party lies we have government, if not hello elections again. Also it's even worse because the pre electoral rhetoric is "make your vote useful" so it seems like a never ending cycle of two main parties or below average governments...
Not necessarily. Chega wants to have ministers and be part of government and that is the red line. But that doesn’t mean that AD can’t negotiate some specific common measures to both parties without them being in the government, in this scenario it would be possible to rule without a majority and maintain a support from chega.
Oh hey looks like you changed the video title before I got around to watching this and removed the "sort of" qualifier. All 5 stages of grief in a few hours haha
would be important to also mention the problem with justice. So far justice as managed to raise the sense in corruption with the 2 major political partys, yet untill now one has been found guilty, because all the evidences from acusation are specualtive based or staright up faulty
You need a bit more sound absorbants in your workspace, to make the sound better.
Meanwhile in Ireland....
Y’all are cooked 💀
Hold strong man. Before 2019 we only had the center right, leftists and far leftists that had influence. There was no right wing in Portugal unlike other European countries and 5 years later the left has become irrelevant besides the "moderate" socialists and we have an actual influential, strong right wing party.
I know some people will say CDS but they don't count because they were always so scared of the left they called themselves centrists and were afraid of offending them which is why they disappeared.
What’s going on?
@@Streepie21 immigration policies are massively unpopular and there seems to be a huge shift rightwards in public sentiment
Meanwhile, in the rest of Europe and the Eu , what a mess they all are especially Spain , Netherlands, Poland etc
Oh brother.
Resume:
Politicians in Portugal have egos bigger than the roles they need to do.
They vote in favor or against the policies presented, depending on which party proposed them.
They don't care if the policies are good or bad for the country.
As soon yoy said infrastructure minister i was like what surely.... yes he was involved lmao
you are 100% right about voter turnout to be higher, i am one of those 15% who voted this year, i wanted change, so I went out and voted, it's been 14 years since i had voted last time in 2010 and back then it was my first vote ever when i was just 20 and i didnt know what the fuck i was doing back then.
And did it work? Did you get the change you wanted?
@@Torresmos It's been a few days you tool.
I hope that during those 14 years you haven't said a single bad thing about how the country is being governed
@Torresmos it didn't work such as it didn't work for those who didn't want change
Do you not know what a period is?
O nosso problema é a ignorância, somos lentos a evoluir, a esquerda já era pra tar erradicada deste país à muito, enfim.
0:13 Incorrect logo. Yes, that is PSD's logo, but they won alongside the PPM (Monarchists) and CDS-PP; their logos should be there too, or replaced with an AD logo (that's the name of their alliance).
This is so similar to Canada for the coming election
Could you make a video about Romania's political landscape before the 2024 European and local elections (which will take place on the same date)?
A LOT has been happening recently. A grand-coalition between Romania's two largest parties, an ad-hoc alliance of opposition liberals and conservatives and two right-wing populist parties have formed, competing for a victory.
An international court-rulling in Romania's favour on a controversial mining project, was allegedly used by the government parties to manipulate the stock market in Toronto and the Bucharest's mayor's office is in shutdown because one of the parties in the previously mentioned grand coalition is blocking the vote on a budget, allegedly to sabotage the incumbent mayor, supported by the previously mentioned liberal-conservative alliance.
That's a big huge scandal. Best wishes to romania, seems like a very important election.
@@puraLusa
Thanks
Well thanks for news of my contry
In my honest opinion the only solution will be to make a Digital Portugal in the metaverse, where democracy could be preserved and the minions of CHEGA would be banned from this digital Portugal, this virtual realm could become like a mix of World of Warcraft with Deus Ex where people could visit the virtual cities of Lisbon and other places from this digital Portugal with their avatars
@@pedrosilvasouto7320 go for it my dude add cruzaiders and templares and I am sold XD
isso nao me parece la muito democratico@@pedrosilvasouto7320
We so back
Portuguese here. People were desperate for changing, so they voted in the “far” right CHEGA, instead of the center-right AD coalition. I was hoping people would understand that voting CHEGA would be useless, because they would never get a majority in our country, and they wouldnt get a coalition with the center right (although CHEGA has been begging for it!), so a lot of those votes could actually help AD. But people are angry so they escalate their decisions
In their quest for change the people of Portugal forgot they could change for the worst
Well, time for a new election soon I guess.
I am American, but I speak Portuguese. I've listened to several of Ventura's speeches, but I heard nothing extreme right nor racist. I don't know if he's saying other things behind closed doors, but he seems to be fighting for the Portuguese people. That's a good thing, right?
I wish the US had more than 2 parties. The 2 party system is distroying this country.
Portugal has spoken. The politicians must do what is best for the Portuguese people.
Boa sorte, povo!
you should know that today everything for the nation is racist and extreme, Ventura is not racist at all, his best old friend since teenager still follows him when he speaks to the public, and he is black.
He's been so bold as to not only say those things but also on national live TV. His election debates were also considered to be the worst of the lot, since it was essentially him calling other candidates names and not respecting the other party's turn to speak.
Chega at the moment is not a party. It's Ventura. That's it. It's a cult of personality and that personality is not a good one. The moment Ventura drops off, the party implodes and disappears.
@@Exloar Curious. I also watched the election debates and I don't remember him calling anyone names.
@@Exloar dont spread lies, even mainstream media comentators Ventura lost all the debates, the stablishment cant wait to get rid of him so they only show negatively about him and the party but the population give the middle finger to mainstream, and to people like you. Suck it, Ventura knows the timings and what the country needs reflects the reality of a daily basis of the people.
1. Chega appropriated Salazar's (former dictator) motto "Deus, Pátria, Família" into "Deus, Pátria, Família, Trabalho".
2. Ventura has said he wants to form a "Fourth Republic" (the current government is the Third Republic), this is the same rhetoric of the 1979 neosalazarist party MIRN. Diogo Pacheco, an infamous ex-MIRN member is also part of Chega.
3. Multiple members and supporters have performed nazi salutes on camera.
4. A Chega MP has appropriated Hitler's "Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer".
5. Chega's electoral programme includes far-right dog whistling such as 'globalist, neo-Marxist "woke" agenda, guided these days by the sinister "Agenda 2030"'.
6. Chega claims to fight against "gender ideology", a term made in the 90s by Catholic neoconservatives to oppose LGBTQ+ rights. In reality, they wish to fight against equality for those who are different from them.
7. Ventura's political idol is Salvini, the infamous Putinist.
These are just some that came to mind.
He's not fighting for the Portuguese people, it's just pure power-hungry populism, he's USING them.
I aploud our brothers and sisters in portugal for choosing a right party. We are loosing our continent. Greatings from the Netherlands xx
Nice video
Depois disto só vem coisas boas !!
Não vem nada de bom. O Chega teve 18% dos votos. Não manda NADA! Manda ZERINHO!
Vocês estão embriagados de ilusões supremacistas.
O que vai acontecer são 4 anos de estagnação económica e afastamento de investidores devido á instabilidade política que o Chega vai criar e do parlamento virar uma peixeirada terceiromundista vergonhosa onde nada é discutido ou decidido por causa das histerias tasqueiras do Chega.
O desenvolvimento económico que conseguimos após as políticas de austeridade destrutivas de Passos Coelho vai ser destruído e em 4 anos estamos na merda outra vez.
O plano do Chega para chegar ao poder é sabotar a nação para poder apontar os partidos de bom senso do centro como culpados e enganar este povo português borderline atrasado mental de tanta ignorância e educação deficiente.
As a portuguese I am scared about europe's dark future in politics (portugal included)
yea they might actually stop the genocide of eurpeans
how scary
hahahaha worry about portugal turns like a France not for politician that want to protect you and your family
@@josesilvat.3898 I mean more like a dictatorship like 1930's
I also am afraid Europe will become all like Sweden in terms of mass immigration
I am not portuguese but you didn't mention how common minority governments in Portugal are... Negative parliamentarianism is a thing both in Portugal and in Sweden
True , since the dictactorship in Portugal we were ruled 38 years by minority governments out of 50 years.
I hope it is clear that currently PSD and PS have the exact same numbers of seats in the parliment right now but AD has 2 more seats
Here in Belgium we also have a Cordon Sanitaire against the far right. Now they are leading in the polls, the question is if it will finally collapse. Mayby this can also be an interesting video :)
Here in portugal they talked shit about chega and its voters and now after the elections they stopped talking like that and started talking about respect , we won't forget being called every negative thing on the book for 8 years
The term started in our country you know. ⬛🟨🟥
You'll have to or risk the country becoming ungoverenable.
Can't simply ignore a significant chunk of the electorate and expect people to take it either as well.
@@MrNackaerts24 Didn't knew that, that's an interesting fact
@@MrRafagigaprahahah no one is talking about respect, Chega keeps being a populist shitty party and that won’t change bc 1M people were brainwashed. We do need change but this won’t change anything bc Chega is not against the system….they belong to the system.
If you want to deal with anti-establishment parties then you have to bring them into the fold and see if they prove themselves no better than the establishment parties. If you ostracize them publicly and persecute them through the media then they will only gain traction as people are not stupid and can tell when a specific party is being given different treatment. Another factor is that establishment parties that have been around for a long time are completely out-of-touch with popular sentiment and the concerns of the general populace nowadays. They've grown fat, mired in a swamp of personal interests, from decades of political dominance and, as a result, became complacent and incapable of offering policies that make the sweeping changes that the populace desires.
As for Portugal's case in particular, I hope it breaks the 2-party duopoly over portuguese politics permanently. A democracy with more ideologic spaces having representation is much healthier than what has existed from '74 until now. Here's hoping more portuguese parties can do what CHEGA did and threaten the big boys' dominance.
The only person with a brain here
Housing and lack of infrastructure have been ignored and the farmers are the last group to get any consideration.
As a dual citizen half Portuguese half British young person, the main frustration I have like many others, is the corruption of the system, and more personally the disregard of the youth.
The two main parties, like most "democratic" duopolistic countries in the world, are out of touch with their voter base. The older generations dig their heels into the ground and are inflexible, voting for one of the main two parites every single time, despite the massive overlap that the two main parties have in maintaining the status-quo of minimal change to the system.
The frustration of the youth, and those who've grown tired of the decreasing quality of life / purchasing power, is expressed in the unprecedented number of seats going to chega (which means enough) who promises a large reform, removing the status-quo quagmire that portugal has been in for the longest time.
I voted for IL (the liberal initiative) because they are the most libertarian, and I hope for a reduction in the size of governement, the reduction of bureucracy, more localised power going to the average citizen, regardless of left or right social or economic policies, because as I see it, the commonality of most Portuguese is the frustration of the status-quo of the government which is out of touch with the average person and is often exposed as corrupt.
And this sentiment is growing worldwide. The majority of those that want a change that's focused on helping the average citizen of their own country, tend to find it only in a right leaning, populist, nationalist party that's outside of the duopoly's norm. This often is described as regressive, but it's rooted in the reminiscence of a time when the country was growing economically under older laws, and the average citizen had an easier life with more purchasing power.
Year after year, without a change to the system, the number of Portuguese who grow tired of the lack of growth and opportunity increases, and the chance to break the quagmire of the status-quo becomes more real.
Did anyone else have heard for the first time of the monarquist party in Portugal? Go on mates
I assume you're not Portuguese. It's a very small party with very small number of voters, but it has been around for a long time. They never won seats in the parliament on their own, but they often join a coalition and have had members in the government.
There's a famous pretender to the throne who is a celebrity and diplomat, but there's also a long term dispute for the pretender to the throne which includes descendants of the House of Saxe-Coburg.
@@f.g.9466Those fools, the only rightful pretender to the throne is the heir of Dom Miguel
@@Ipolitelyaskyoutodie imagine thinking that monarchy is reasonable
@@f.g.9466
I don’t need to imagine
That is wrong, PS is not a "more left wing party", it is a left wing party, period. And PSD is not a "more right wing party", it is a centre party. In any European country they would be a normal social democrat party sitting at the centre, but in Portugal right wing is not acceptable in the Parliament, well, until now.
Chega is just a meme-party, soon they will disappear, but for now they pretend to be right-wing party.
You're right. They copy and plagiarise every fascist and fascist wannabe lol
Ventura acts like Mussolini, that chick Rita Matias plagiarises Giorgia Melloni speeches, their policies are straight up out of Hitler's economic plan "white supremacy + socialism for government workers obedient to the regime"
Can you make a video about the austrian election?
Love ❤ Portugal 🇵🇹from Czechia 🇨🇿 WHAT THE F**K IS A HIGH CRIME RATE!?!?! 🗣️🗣️🗣️🇨🇿🇵🇹
Many corruption in the goverment.
Lmao , give it 10 more years of south east asian immigration and you Will see what happens , like swedistan.
The Populist Right isn't sweeping Europe out of nowhere, it's a natural reaction to radical progressivism in media and cultural institutions + unrestricted mass migration. This is the case everywhere in Western Europe. (In Eastern Europe there are different reasons, generally more concerned with stance towards Russia and the War in Ukraine)
Portugal was resisting this trend because Portugal, as usual, it's always behind the rest of Western Europe's "current thing", but it is not immune to it.
It was only at the end of the Socialist's first mandate, that radical progressive measures as well as an unprecedented and exponential rise in migration, both legal and otherwise, began rapidly increasing Chega's support.
Costa's second mandate won an absolute majority not on the account of his "overwhelming popularity" but largely on the account of a tactical vote of the entire Far-Left in the centre-Left make sure the right-wing wouldn't size power, as back then there was great fearmongering of a coalition with Chega on the right, and the Far-Left claimed to be unwilling to support a Socialist goverment a second turn. As a result you saw a very sharp decline of all Far-Left parties, as they all flocked to give the Socialists an absolute majority.
Now in these last elections, the corruption scandals and mass protests of several working class interest groups saw the Far-Left retreating their support of PS and returning to their more radical parties, this time mostly flocking to Livre, a new and more modernised version of Progressive politics, as opposed to the old-guard Marxist-Lenninist parties. While the more conservative right wing instead got more radicalised by the issues i mentioned above since the Social Democrats showed a complete and total innability to address those new social concerns, being stuck in the same old neo-liberal mindset, and in fact stigmatized these concerns just like the Left does. This led to a great amount of moderate right wingers, as well as more conservative-minded economic left-wingers to shift to Chega.
Chega will continue to grow until the Social-Democrats begin addressing the social issues worrying the conservative vote. If the Social Democrats remain exclusively concerned in economic liberal policy and nothing else, they will fall into the same level as the Liberal Innitiative, which isn't that popular and doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon.
As i see it there are two futures: The Social Democrats become conservative and drain Chega out of existance, or they remain as they are, and get drained by Chega. The Portuguese right is becoming incresingly more socially conservative and will remain in this direction as long as the Left continues pushing Progressivism further, and they definitely will not stop either. Ever increasing social polarisation seems innevitable, as we see happening in the U.S.A.
Spoken like someone who hasn't put a step here. What "radical and progressive" measures has PS implemented lately? Even the word "progressivism" is hardly use here. 5€ this is an American using ChatGPT.
Despite the fantasies that far right morons tell themselves, culture war issues will always remain important for a 30% of rich boomers who are angry at the world changing at most. The real driver of vote is economic insecurity. Now, the far right parties can't address it for real - they love the causes of that insecurity, which boil down to the way the economy itself is structured, to protect the privileges of those who already have money, and funnel more and more to the top.
But they do see some success because for a short while, they can placate small business owners, who are terrified of falling into poverty as economic crisis looms on the horizon, by talking from the already poor.
A lot of Germans in the 1930s loved that the government would let them have homes for cheap... because they were taken away from other Germans who were among the many demographics hated by the government. Essentially, that's what far right parties do all over the place: take away from minorities and the poor, and hand out to their main demographics, who for a little bit can prolong the illusion of wealth.
Europeans are terrified about refugees ever since the Syrian refugee crisis, but the reality is that they've been eating off of cheap immigrant slave labor for decades. Who do you think ACTUALLY makes farms run in a good portion of the EU? It ain't the natives, I can tell you that. They're called farmers, but the vast majority of them are agricultural landlords. The ones doing real farm work are poor immigrants, who do backbreaking work for 12 hours a day.
Yet, you don't see them taking tractors to clog the streets of the capitals of Europe...
ah yes, the “radical progressivism” of thinking lgbt people, women, and non-white people should have rights, is causing the far right to surge
@@TugaAvenger 5$ you cant Google these issues and find out yourself. First of all buddy, COMMUNIST parties in 2024 in office, in the EU, fucking disgusting. Spain, Portugal, France, Austria, they should be ashamed they let such marxist garbage in office in the first place.
@@TugaAvenger
Spoken like someone so entirely by the progressive consensus that doesn't see it when it's happening in front of his face.
I'll give you a examples of laws pushed in the last semester alone:
-Gender Neutral Bathrooms in schools
-Self determination of Gender by childern in schools
-The elimination of every Portuguese symbol from the official logo of the Portuguese Republic, with the expressed intent of making it more inclusive.
-Cenship measures protecting the unique interest of certain priviledged sexual and racial groups. (Aka: "Hate-speech laws")
-Laxing of the requirements for Citizenship attainment once again
-Supporting NGO's whose explicit intent is to look for any sort of outcome inequalities and frame them as some sort of racial or sexual oppresion mechanism.
-Relentless and pointless discussions about sexism and racism and alphabet-people, in parliment, for no actual legal reason.
Not passed by goverment, but local authorities:
-Outlawing and persecuting people for organizing anti-imigration protests
-Funding and organizing pro-immigration protests and festivals
-Pressuring and attempting legal actions against local autarkies who refuse to pass
Media:
-Cenship of every crime commited by protected groups to prevent hate
-Constat barrage of news about "xenophobia on the rise" or xenophobic micro-agressions, as if those news didn't also stirr anti-native hate.
-Having literal members of NGO's who self admittedly want total abolition of borders giving their opinion and analysis on immigration, and whenever someone speaks out against mass immigration immediately frame it as unnaceptable and extremist, despite being literally the norm everywhere forever.
Schools and Universities:
Everyone knows the majority of teachers and expecially professors are massively skewed to the liberal left. This is proved by studies and voting patterns. And of course, personal experience, comming from someone with formal higher education himself.
Of course, you probably agree with all this things and that's why you don't see them as extremist, but they definitely are, as the definition of extremism is experimental measures without precedent that push an idea further than ever before, and these issues have been pushed futher than ever before, for better or worse.
Strong politician André Ventura, anti-immigration💪🇵🇹
make a video about slovakias political situation
you for got the Overseas Seats of the 4 of the 3 will go to the AD and the rest will go to the PS.
"Unfortunately for centrist dads everywhere" 😂
Great news for Portugal ❤
"CHEGA", as a word that means "enough " xD
The government should be there for its people. Not the rest of the world and multi national interests. Also their people should come first
Tldr says democracy is bad lol
Great Video, greetings from Germany.
Maybe you guys could make a video about how to deal with right wing populist or the far right, because as I see it it’s always a dilemma. Directly working with them can be dangerous, ignoring them as well and just copying them often only increases their vote share.
Problem with a really difficult solution. Just look at the US.
the scary scary far right
how dare people not want to go into the concentration camps and vote for survival
how ignorant are you??
In a healthy market economy that additional demand for real estate would prompt a construction boom, higher demand for various labour, higher wages, and more overall economic growth, won’t it? There should be some excessive red tape problem.
Portuguese here, this is a better analysis than everything we see on tv here.
Estão de greve (journalists are on strike) 😂😂