How the war in Ukraine will end | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman
Vložit
- čas přidán 20. 11. 2023
- Lex Fridman Podcast full episode: • John Mearsheimer: Isra...
Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
- Notion: notion.com
- ExpressVPN: expressvpn.com/lexpod to get 3 months free
- InsideTracker: insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off
- Eight Sleep: www.eightsleep.com/lex to get special savings
- AG1: drinkag1.com/lex to get 1 month supply of fish oil
GUEST BIO:
John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.
PODCAST INFO:
Podcast website: lexfridman.com/podcast
Apple Podcasts: apple.co/2lwqZIr
Spotify: spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
RSS: lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
Full episodes playlist: • Lex Fridman Podcast
Clips playlist: • Lex Fridman Podcast Clips
SOCIAL:
- Twitter: / lexfridman
- LinkedIn: / lexfridman
- Facebook: / lexfridman
- Instagram: / lexfridman
- Medium: / lexfridman
- Reddit: / lexfridman
- Support on Patreon: / lexfridman - Věda a technologie
Full podcast episode: czcams.com/video/r4wLXNydzeY/video.html
Lex Fridman podcast channel: czcams.com/users/lexfridman
Guest bio: John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.
🤔 Ukraine A Waste Of America TAXPAYER'S MONEY 💰
can't get any intellect from Putin propagandists. John only knows how to repeat Putin lies and propaganda.
He also talks out of both sides of his ass,
Lex, why are you pushing CIA propaganda?
blaming the victim. what will prevent putin to annex those oblast after lifting sanctions. it is total bs. putin invaded crimea when ukraine was neutral. and neutral ukraine is bs from mearsheimer. putin through russian mafia will dominate so called neutral ukraine as with no rule of law it would be maduro like regime. as in belorus with no single belorus language school.
Correction.... the war started in 2014.... not 2022
And Ukraine started the war by killing Russians in Ukraine for keeping Russian culture. Ukrainian started an ethnic cleanse back in 2014.
Correction the war started in 1945 when the UK/US saved from the war crime court 20.000 SS Ukraine guys to be later used against Soviet union, as insurgence groups to harm communist soviet union they killed aproxematly 20.000 soviets betwen 1946-1953, then the Soviets seal the borders, yes that was the reason for that as well.
More about saving the Ukraine SS guys on Mark Felton channel, title: Ukraine nazis in Britain.
CIA suported those Ukrainian since then in Britain, Canada and in the US to be used again in 2004 to install US favorite goverment, they failed, but in 2014 they succeed.
The civil war started in 2014. There were no headlines "Russia invaded Ukraine" in 2014.
Yes there was, It was all over the place how Russia had Unmarked units operating in ukraine... @@lockbert99
@@lockbert99civil war run by Ruzzia.
"World leaders should just hold hands and sing songs together" -Lex
Of course he pushes peace and the status quo. His "faction" runs everything.
Nobody is learning history anymore. Russia is a babarian state. Poland was defending against their aggression for 1000 years. 19 wars(every generation on average, let that sink in). They will not change, 20th century, we fought them in 2 wars. In 1920 we defeated red army, stopped the horde, then in 1939 ruzzists and nazis ganged up on us and we ended up occupied by soviet sc*m 1945-1993. This state is pure insanity, they fuel their paranoia and madness with alcohol and keep attacking EVERYONE THAT THEY PERCIVE WEAKER THAN THEM. There is no solving this without this state falling apart for good.
Hahaha. Naivite. Putin does this out of mystical view of history. He thinks invading countries and grabbing land is his destiny
@@Luke-zz2zzeasy to call for peace when your team have been winning for the last 80 years or so. Lex is a child who has nothing to do with eastern Europe and has an incredibly low knowledge about the region, it's people and their customs so don't think of him as any type of intellectual but rather as a typical American jew who has grown up sheltered from any harsh realities to become the normies "feelgoodguy" 👍
"faction"??????? woah woah woah woah woah woah hold on buddy watch your mouth @@Luke-zz2zz
This feels like an adult explaining things to a toddler
I was thinking something similar.
There is something about Fridman that is rather unbelievably naive and idealistic in a World of Real-Politik!
It is time, Lex, to wake up and smell the coffee.
Exacly
@@fgb3126 It's something which is usually kind of endearing about him but becomes absolutely insufferable when conversation is in this space
Well I bet he is way more knowledgeable than you on every counterpoint to each mershimer argument.
I swear... how naive can Lex be? He's so cute. I can't wait for him to grow up and pick up a history book.
I'd be happy with an engaging interviewer. Give him a coffee at least for christ's sake.
Can you fucking imagine the US, Ukraine, or Russia acting in good faith? International geopolitics is pure self interest. Every actor is hoping to get the best for themselves. Ukraine would never EVER be truly neutral. All that means is that Russia gets to once again start infiltrating the state's institutions when the US is busy somewhere else like with China for example.
Cute like a puppy.
when lex said "they cant reach an agreement even with the US at the table?" I spit out my coffee
😂😂😂
You're right !!
There will never be peace as long as the U.S. is sitting at the same table!!
US is the problem 😂😂😂. Problem is Americans never read history except what media tells them
Who's history are you reading? That also is a huge difference.
Yeah, we're virtual whizzes at foreign policy. In fact, I can't think of any misguided U.S. foreign conflicts since WWII. On second thought, every one of them. @@davidsmith5094
I find it hard to believe that Lex could possibly be this naive
Iits not his naivety, It's cognitive dissonance
Unfortunately he is. Politics wise lex is not smart at all.
If only he was naive. Very early on he calculated that he is up against his revenue stream if he discusses this conflict objectivly. Now when the invevitable has unfolded he has no leg to stand on so he preaches love. So dissapointing, thats why there is only one Joe Rogan
@@charlesspencer6339 Joe Rogan is not the smartest as well! He got many things wrong. Maybe he is too careful (?) anyway regards to politics and news, there are much better podcasts
@@milanvanik8701 not calling him smart but he is authentic...it doesnt appear, at least to me, that he tailors his messaging according to trends
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” ------- Albert Einstein
Exactly right. But the power of money is very alluring.
Superb!!!
Lex-“do you think it’s a good idea for world leaders to talk about stuff?”
The popularity of this guy’s podcast is a testament to the median IQ of western civ these days.
Don't confuse your cynicism for intelligence, Lex is far more intelligent than you are. He's just naive on this particular subject.
@@muresandani
Lex is a shill
It’s always some “easterner “ talking shit about the west. The whole “ east vs west “ shit is hilarious because ppl from the west never even use that term it’s only yall 😂😂😂.
@@jaimeperez8247 It is not the easts problem youve bred so much gore on this world that not pointing it out would be like choosing to go blind.
@@-the_emperor-1660 only western nations are to blame for all the atrocities committed by man? That’s hilarious. Guess you don’t know your history
The smile on Mearsheimer's face at @13:34 as Lex is talking about person to person talks overriding distrust of the West is great. To me, it expresses.. "Lex, bless your heart, you sweet summer child".
Well, Lex is blissfully unaware of the fact that under Zelensky Putin's " brother figure " Viktor Medvedchyk was arrested on totally idiotic charges and brutally tortured. Is it even fair to ask Putin to sit down with the psycho killer? Even under Poroshenko there were no death squads, kill lists and people disappearing. Volodya and I don't want to " sit down " with Zelensky- we want him to go for a swim with the fishes in the Hudson River! End of story.
Haha well said
lol
yup sounds about right, while lex is partially correct that sometimes great leaders can transcend the normal bounds and make deals that might normally never be possible there is only one great leader involved in this conflict and its putin. Zelenski is a puppet to the usa, and negotiating with Biden? Well biden is as far from great as a leader can possibly be.
I am grateful to Lex for his seemingly repetitive naive questions and for the Mearsheimer's bulletproof answer. Anyone exposed to this cannot make the mistake of thinking upside down.
Lex: "Ok, but what about if I bake them a cake?"
Nice chat, by the way...
Naïve chat of cabinet professor…
@6:37 Ukraine was “on its own” pre 2014 and how did that work out for the country? You cannot just ignore historical events by picking and choosing what to remember.
Not really. Lots of outside interference.
Literal coup staged by western powers 🤦♂️
You can trust Putin exactly as far you can throw a KGB agent.
Same appplies to Americans, US blew up German gas pipe and now US is selling us American gas at 4x the price , first pushing us into war with Russia than taking.advantage of us, with allies like US you dont need enemies
'have russia and ukraine tried telling eachother they love eachother?' -Lex probably
Yes but that was the 17th century. 😢
It's his gig but it's also his way to remain more or less neutral. His slot makes it neccessary to remain ignorant of a lot of reality.
Lex will singlehandedly solve the world peace at the next Miss Universe pageant 🙄
@KeekeOrb :: 😊
What is wrong with Lex ? He's interviewed too many people to be this naive.
@@cliffgaither Lex jumped the shark 🦈
😂
@@cliffgaitherlex is another elite class fool
@AtlanticCity
watching Lex interact with Mearseheimer is literally like watching a Steve Brule interview. He even wears the same facial expressions
I have worked it out folks, Lex is not naive or child like. This is his angle or his interviewing style. Lex is like the straight man in a comedy duo. Lex asks a question or makes a statement to get the most honest answer from his interviewee.
13:03 As a Russian, sometimes I can't help thinking Lex believes in the tooth fairy and Santa Claus
I would like to think Lex is a smart guy but he’s just dumbing himself down to get the views.
As a Russian you need to protest the war and not type silly comments here.
@@pierman4858 oh shut up, you have no moral right to tell people to go against their government. are you going to protect them afterwards?
@@mangokush245 if I would protect Russians if they get in trouble with the Russian state for protesting the invasion of Ukraine? Nope, probably not. My wife left Belarus and can never return there because she protested Lukashenko. I guess supporting her is my little part in the fight for justice. I do also support the victims of Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
@@pierman4858why he must protest? For many Russians this war is protective war and honest
He should ask BlackRock about how it ends.
.....with huge profits for General Dynamics, Boeing, Raytheon, and company....
@@zarategabe Did Putin send hundreds of thousands of soldiers into Ukraine? Is Russia committing mass murder? Are the people in Russia who tried to stop this invasion imprisoned in camps in Russia? Did the Russians fire 10,000+ missiles into Ukraine this past year? Why don't you talk about that instead. Why is Iran selling drones to Russia? Why is Russia taking over diamond mines in Africa? Why do Russian forces imprison, extort, assault, and torture people? Why is Putin still in charge? Why has he been in power all this time, and even now.
BINGO!!!
The true owners of the US government, along with Vanguard, StateStreet, J. P. Morgan Chase, and ALL of the Washington think tanks....
It’s amazing how uneducated most westerners are. I’m from New York and I see the smug ignorance every day! 😂
They will buy all Ukraine probably
Only if Ukraine gov is still in charge.
To put it more into a Computer Scientist's point of view regarding world politics so that Lex may understand; it's like a giant never-ending game of Game Theory: every 'agent' is always trying to maximise its 'utility'. There is no room for 'human trust'. States are 'machines', not 'squishy humans'.
Just like corporations.
This is a great analogy.
Well it shows you have zero clue on game theory. Spoiler alert, being mean in game theory means you lose, trust and forgiveness are winning traits.
Human machines*
It must be quite painful for Putin having to negotiate with so many different leaders that are all part of the same machine
Didn't care when he started the war
@@George-pv1lr🤔 Looks like you didn’t understand anything about the whole issue 🤷♀️
@@anneli1735nah he understands enough, fuck ruzzia
For a scientist, Lex's dismissal of evidence is shocking!
And that's how russian propaganda works. They pay Lex a few pennies and he eats up their BS and then throws it at us.
What evidence? At least Lex pushed back against this guy's crazy claims. Everyone with even a half functioning brain knows this war was cause by pootin. It's been like that since ruZZia stole Crimea.
What evidence?
Love Lex nodding, just listening to this idiot, Lex knows things, this fool (John M.?), is WAY out of his element. It's as if he doesn't read any history. Finnish war of 1939 ring a bell to this idiot? I mean, John M is WAY out of his element.
Why? Do u know how actually work science today?
Lex can be hard to take seriously
Yeah I think Mearsheimer has the most realistic take here. I think what Lex has to remember is that both of these men, Putin and Zelenskyy, are ideologically motivated in the favor of their own nations, they feel wronged by the other and Putin feels wronged by the West. Does Lex really think Zelenskyy after two years of watching his people get butchered by the Russians could sit across from Putin, smile, and say "Let's figure out how to end this thing?" And conversely, Putin who sees a grave security threat to his people from Ukrainian ascension into NATO, who has seen the West throw countless billions of dollars of advanced armaments into Ukraine to kill his soldiers, could sit across from Zelenskyy and actually figure something out?
I appreciate Lex's heart and hope, but it's not realistic. In my opinion, the only way this ends is if the West backs off and leaves Ukraine to be beaten by Russia. Otherwise it's going to turn into an unstable frozen conflict, like Mearsheimer alluded to, to where both sides beat the crap out of each other until a ceasefire and then the conflict will simmer until something sparks it off again or Russia thinks they can break Ukraine down a little further. There is no way this is going to end the way the United States and Russia have gotten entangled, because both sides have too much to lose. Not until one side decides to give up, and who has more to lose? Russia who sees Ukraine in NATO as an existential threat, or the United States who are funding a proxy war to gain strategic supremacy over Russia? All the US has to lose at this point is face and strategic advantage. I think Russia has more to lose and more they have lost. I don't see them backing down after what they have already sacrificed.
Because Lex is globally naive.
I agree, he keeps mentioning the human side. It is kind of annoying as well.
"no NATO expansion" and such have been promised before, and the previous promises and agreements were broken. I think at this time Russia will accept no less than unconditional surrender.
Lex is bought and paid for by the usual suspects
Lex has such a good heart.
Never change man.
Kindness goes a long way.
Much love to ya.
Prof.Mearsheimer hits the nail on the head once again,you have my vote any day.A guy who knows and knows what he is talking about.
When Lex was talking about being human, all I could imagine was Don Corleone stepping into the room, placing his hand on Lex’s Shoulder and saying “I have a sentimental weakness for my children and I spoil them, as you can see. They talk when they should listen.” 😂😂
😂
Best comment yet!
Yet, the childish thought of being human and showing love for one another over the egotistical run away train this war has become, is the real answer. But yes let the adults talk about how each side is right and perpetuate an endless war with only more destruction. No one stops to think the unlikelyhood of peace and love is a real option, so they all align with hate and war instead.
Ha ha
I read that in Vito Corleone's voice!
I truly believe Lex has good intentions with his naive “humanity” questions, but it’s a bit difficult to listen. This is not a marriage dispute, and stakes are extremely high. This is not a place for emotional heart to hearts of two people. Besides, Zelenski can’t make the call on decisions Putin would want him to make for the conversation to be productive.
He is very naive and kinda delusional. I think we all know that words of Western leaders hold no value. Also US has no leader. I'd say it's the most corrupt country on Earth
Zelensky is a US puppet, everyone in the world knows that.
Sadly and unfortunately you are completely right
Absolutely. Foreign relations are not romantic relationships.
I disagree just in that not even a marriage dispute can not be solved by an emotional heart to heart.
Hey Lex! Would be great to hear you conversation with Arestovych you've recorded a while ago. Please share it with us.
@arestovych
Keep in mind that every family in Ukraine has lost someone. The potential of Ukrainians hugging Russians is unbelievable.
Keep in mind ,every German family has lost someone ,yet they are the most faithful American pup in Europe.
@@nuradinsadigi9148 are you implying that Nazi Germany should have won?
Russia killed many of its client states yet they are the ones fighting fiercely for Russia in Ukraine.
Keep in mind that every family in Ukraine has lost someone. Yet they still are willing to hug germans.
Lex is such a romantic person lives in his own world. The questions that he asks are so broad and unrealistic.
I rarely listen to him, but I think the same thing every time I watch a clip of his. I’ve never understood his popularity. The questions are the same a teenager might ask
He evinces himself an unread man
these people die first in war, hes lucky hes living in peaceful country
I feel like there's a place for both realism and optimism, I understand he doesn't know a lot about the situation, but although there's a naivety that comes along with idealism, if we can't imagine a better future then it just won't happen
@@integratedalchemist Someone who believes in "free will" would say that. Realpolitik comes with an understanding of game theory and incentive structures, which rules out the foolish "just two guys talking it out" approach.
I was listening to this while hiking and I was SCREAMING when a smart guy like lex was talking about the leaders talking person to person about war. It reminded me of when people talk about Manifestation.
God I was doing the same. He just couldn’t let that idea go
Idealism and optimism decline with age. Intelligence decreases slightly, but wisdom increases exponentially. I see John saying..and this is one of our smartest youth...oh, the Naiveté.
Why do you call him a smart guy? He doesn't seem to know the first thing of what he's talking about!
@@troiscarottes You must also have a PHD in Robotics or Computer science?, so to me..that's fn smart. Now, naive..another story
@@sirlancairno a midwit can have phd.
Annexation of territory does not mean holding territory.
Great interview well done 👍
This guys “I believe in the power of individual leaders” position is cringey childish nonsense.
1000%
It was big WTF moment
@@overbe it’s very egocentric. This is a numbers game occurring on an epic scale and these leaders and constantly making decisions with a limited scope of the facts, both intentionally and unintentionally betraying each other. This is not a movie, Lex.
I wouldn't call it cringe but definitely naive. He still believes if someone like Trump is the US president somehow the US will suddenly have the global power and influence like it once did after Soviet collapse. The Western world has been playing with Putin's trust for years and now none of the Russian leadership are listening anymore. You violate s.o trust for so long and expect them to be the humble person? Thats impossible.
Figureheads have power? 🤣
The war started in 2014 not 2022
What's with the vampiric NPR tone?
Even when it was explained to Lex what transpired with the Minsk Agreement, he still uttered those words of trust and human nature. I was waiting for John to say, “didn’t you hear what I just said about the Minsk agreement”?
Yea and John was completely wrong about the Minsk agreement as it's seems you are
Minsk agreements were broken by both Sides. But must of escalation was made by RU side
Kiev refused to talk with the Donbass leaders about implementation of the Minsk agreements.
Merkel said in a newspaper magazine the Minsk agreement were meant to buy Kiev time and prepare for war.
@@Dodo-ym8ccin your conspiracy pedo-dreams vatnik. No proofs as always, tik-tok news lol
Lol. John explains how France, Germany and Ukraine leaders said one thing but did another thing and Russia leader lost trust to their words Lex again talks about leader word...
@@ZugZugMahognymearssomethings aren't just informed of that ((...
this guy needs to quit while he is ahead, not dig a bigger hole! What a dunce! LOL!
@@ZugZugMahogny After a coup. Funny because the West were talking about invading Niger for the same reason. But Russia isn't allowed to play with the same rules
after killing of the Russians, banning of the Russian language and Russian political parties in Ukraine.. Of course they had to come in.@@romanroman1850
@@dan-bz7dz This is misinformation. Ukraine is a parliamentary-presidential republic. The parliament remained intact, and President Yanukovych fled. The same parliament that once voted for Yanukovych's laws also voted for his removal from the presidency due to non-compliance with the labor code. President Yanukovych had the full right to challenge this decision in court but did not do so. That's all, no terrifying coup.
Lex is a hopeless romantic. One would rather live in the real world difficult as it is.
one person may be able to trust another person, but unless that person has full control when they go back home it doesn't matter.
I'm so used to Lex speaking intelligently in other episodes, it was startling to hear him talking at a polysci high school level.
😅
He sounds stoned to me.
Lex is a demonstration of a smart person that is extremely dumb in area outside his main focus.
Yeah like Jordan Peterson and Elon Musk, especially Jordan Peterson when he started talking politics
@@yous2244 Exactly, Jordan Peterson studied USSR history and now thinks he understands everything there is to know and that everyone is dumb on this issue except him.
@@user-lp8ur5qn3o nah bro stop the hate despite some discrepancies he has deep insight.
@@yous2244 From your lips to God's ears! When the SMO broke out, Jordan went right away to interview Fred Kagan "to get to the bottom of what was going on." I nearly cried. My hero revealed that indeed he has feet of clay. I wanted to shout out "Jordan, please, stay in your lane" but alas.
@@yous2244Agree. I respect JBP a lot, but his take on external politics is hot garbage, all the while being preached with absolute certainty. He talks a lot about the romantic appeal of communism/Russia, only to fall prey to it.
An interviewer's job is to get the most out of his guest. You have to earn the right to have your opinion be relevant to the interview, as Prof. Mearsheimer has, but Lex has not. I couldn't believe the naivete in his last question where it was all about his ill-informed opinion, and the shocked look on John's face as he had to politely tell him no, that's not how things work.
He sounds like a tankie. EVERYTHING is the U.S. fault. He thinks it's best that weak countries submit to dictators. It would be bad - because, yes, there would be bloodshed - if we intervened. That's what we did with Poland, and Czechoslovakia 85 years ago. How'd that go?
John represents the view of the permanent political class within every allied nation and the unelected globalist oligarchies (not all) who've used neoliberal economics and unconstitutional military acts to finacially bend and militarily break those with different cultures and traditions for power wealth and resources in the false name of freedom and democracy. We've watched the faltering of the unipolar liberal international order because of those facts and a new unipolar international international order has risen. We're also witnessing a National Populist global movement that'll redemocratize the rising Western Civilization State. What we're watching play out was theorized by prized author and Harvard Professor Samuel P Huntington. We have a lot of work to do if we plan on staying on top! Trump 2024!
This is guy has bought and paid for by Putin. Don’t buy anything he is selling.
Because everything is. Starting with Operation Paperclip. We've become too bold, too unreasonable, too greedy. If we wanted to hold onto Ukraine we should have been sending the people who grew up in the Mexican States and nobody else. True, Yares'ko is a Ukrainian but she's not a Texan or Californian- what the hell could she know about keeping the peace between the Anglos and the Mexicans? But then again- the Blake Association never wanted peace, right? Of course right. The idea that my fellow Californians Pelosi, Speier and Feinstein didn't know what the hell they were doing when they allowed an open Banderite by the name of Yuschenko with his CIA wife to influence Ukrainian politics is laughable.
It’s genuinely mind boggling
Central and Eastern European Nations/leaders don't share Mearsheimer's (or Fridman's) wide-eyed optimism about Russia's ability to regard their neighbors as anything but the next conquest, when the time is right.
Those judging Lex as a naïve young man are the real problem in the world today. A world ignorant of how much has dialogue achieved to prevent wars and violence throughout human history.
Keep it up Lex. there’s enough historical evidence to back up the approach that you are encouraging and sharing with us.
This is incredible. This is what "they will never learn", " history repeats itself" is all about. "The war starts on February 24, 2022". Hey asshole, 2014 called, he wants his beginning of the war title back.
Lex has been reading to many western daily tale story’s and movies about happy endings.
Before he knows it he’ll be living in Israel with his settler friends.
He's a computer programmer not a geopolitical analyst. On the internet we are all experts. 😂
The questioning pattern employed by Lex appears to be lacking coherence. There is a discernible disconnect between the second question and the guest's response to the initial inquiry, suggesting a failure to connect the dots accurately. This inconsistency raises concerns about the interview's overall quality, and I am contemplating discontinuing my listenership to his show.
Verbose level: high
wow you sound like a woman
Is the guy on the left half asleep ?
"I believe in democracy but I also believe in autocracy when it suits me" - Lex
Lex Luger
Lex. And everone else, sadly.
Lex Luthor
He is russian
there is no democracy, there are only autocrats (individuals or as a group) who are democratically elected. btw democracy has been a rotten system ever since it was created in ancient greece
Lex dumbing down his audience geolopolitically, as he has been the whole time. Thank God for Mearsheimer.
Mearsheimer and his "frozen conflict," a load of nonsense.
@@melvynobrien6193ok clown
It's more dumb and dumber. Mearshmeiler Splitting even more nonsense
@@melvynobrien6193 what's your solution? inDIviDauL LeADeRs tAlking about feelings? LMAO
If only he was naive. Very early on he calculated that he is up against his revenue stream if he discusses this conflict objectivly. Now when the invevitable has unfolded he has no leg to stand on so he preaches love. So dissapointing, thats why there is only one Joe Rogan
15:28
This is among the very first times I managed to watch Lex's podcast interviews. Why does he seem off and a tad fantastical when interviewing a political scientist such as Mearsheimer in this video?
You are right that it was a very weak interview, in which Lex seemed "unprepared." He can be a surprisingly fabulous interviewer, but no, not always. :)
Mearsheimer wrote a paper in 1993 stating his belief that Russia would invade Ukraine if Ukraine gave up it's nukes. in 1994 Russia demanded 'Security Guarantees' in the form of Ukraine transferring it's Soviet nukes to Russia. Russia got the nukes and promised to promote an independent and economically prosperous Neutral Ukraine. In 1991 Ukriane had 791,000 in it's military, by 2014 Ukraine had 6,000 combat troops. So in 2014 Ukraine was demilitarised and neutral as Russia had demanded, and it invaded Ukraine anyway. By the way Russia never promoted Ukraine's independence or economic development.
After the 2014 coup d’état organised by the West, Ukraine’s neutrality died and as proof throughout its years Ukraine never had a problem until the day the West decided to change this by force by supporting neo-Nazis
Because the Mearsheimer is on side of Putin
Unless, it actually did, almost every other industrial branch in central and Easterb Ukraine was working with Russian companies, also with Russian MD. Almost all of tge Donbass was deeply connected to Russian industries(since Soviet times) so Yanukovich trying to side with Russia and the US injecting its tentacles in Ukraine's interior affairs made things escalate quickly
But in 2014,Ukraine decided to join NATO and broke agreement about neutrality.
@@draganmilicevic3344 Total and utter BS. In 1996 Yeltsin refused to commit to ratify the border and recognise Ukraine so Ukraine was forced to turn to NATO for protection. It applied to join but NATO denied Ukraine because West had Russia-First policy.This scared the **** out of Yeltsin and he signed 1997 Treaty recognising Ukraine. If NATO wanted Ukraine as member they could have had it in 96. In 1991 Ukraine had 791,000 in military. In 2014 Ukraine had 6k combat troops. Russia promised to guarantee an economically prosperous neutral Ukraine but Russia sabotaged neutral Ukraine economically and crippled it with Russian corruption and interference since independence in 1991. In 2014 Ukraine was neutral and demilitarised but Russia invaded it anyway because that was always the plan and anything else is just Kremlin propaganda.
"Trust is based on actions, not mere words."
THANK YOU!!!!
Every time I watch Lex’s videos, it’s like I’m watching an undertaker conduct an interview.
i'm dead
you just watched this specific clip 🤦🏻♂️
@@peperider enjoying lex's questions is a litmus test, you probably also really enjoy Michael bay movies
a braindead one at that
How often does trust overrule the Prisoner's dilemma? Clearly not enough to make the prisoner's dilemma irrelevant.
Smashed it on this one lex, well done
One of the things I've just learned from watching this interview is that John Mearsheimer appears to be a very patient and very kind interlocuter. Holy shit, Fridman has no idea just how kind.
John Mearsheimer is talking bolox, it's pure opinion. It was Russian atrocities in Bucha that ended any negotiations not the West
@@RobinHarris-nf4yvexcuses.
@@RobinHarris-nf4yv You really belive in that BS. Look up some articles about that "incident" its full of fals claims. NYT is writing about bevidence (fotos/videos/vitneses) bot never show any. its sus
@@RobinHarris-nf4yv source?
@@sava411 mary jane
War didnt start at 2022... it began at 2014... 3:11
officially it was a civil war
@@8uratino Even if it was a civil war, there were ruz soldiers involved. People were tracking em down with footage.
I know. I'm just saying that officially war started in 2/24/2022
@@8uratino "officially" both sides have not declare war yet, officially only putin declared he send russian armied forces into Ukraine (to provide "deukrainianzasion" or what-ever-he-want)... Indeed it has really started in 2014.
@@8uratino civil war with Russian military involved. makes sense lol. was Iraq civil war too?
Por supuesto, termine acá! Gracias lex, qué maravilloso invitado.
Invitado si,pero Lex no.
He asks what happend during Istanbul talks?
-Bucha happened
Bucha did not happen
Boris Johnson happened
He himself admitted that he convinced Zelensky not to sign anything
And then they made up Bucha for the stupid people like you as an excuse for the war to continue
Made up by USA and Britain. His point still stands.
Lex is so politically naive, geo-politic is all about interest. Interpersonal trust means nothings.
He has the mentality of a 5 year old.
Yep both sides need to make real compromises. Most compelling would be Russia getting those territories they have already annexed and in return Ukraine gets to join EU/NATO. That or Russia returns all the territories back and Ukraine becomes neutral. However both sides want their cake and eat it too, so no diplomatic progress can be made.
The naivety is an act, which makes him untrustworthy.
I really admire Lex's idealism.
But this "sitting across the table / trust in talking man-to-man" idea was tried before.
Truman on Stalin during the Potsdam Conference: "I liked the s.o.b." And then came the 45-year Cold War.
I don't have a solution I could lay out in a comment section, but I can say more is needed than "the power of the individual."
You encapsulated my thoughts on Lex's idealism in a much more polite way than I am able to, because to me, he is being purposefully ignorant. For what reason? I can only speculate that it's related to self branding.
@BarinKayaoglu....... This is a war the US provoked and strived for for over a decade when Putin has tried several times to negotiate peace with surprisingly fair terms.
Keeping Viktor Yanukovych in power would have been much more preferable, especially to Ukraine’s survival.
But the US neocons, globalists, and Military Industrial Complex wanted to create a new taxpayer laundering conflict they could immensely profit from at the expense of NATO and Eastern European security.
Or maybe you misread history. Maybe if there were more Tehran, Yalta and Potsdam conferences after the war, then deténte with the Soviet Union could've been the order of the day.
Don't forget that Stalin defined his rise to power by halting the Soviet Union's war against Poland and the East. This was part of his "socialism in one country" foreign policy in stark contrast to Trotsky who wanted endless war with the West under what he called "Permanent Revolution".
Stalin also reached out to Western powers like Great Britain and France to contain Hitler prior to being rebuffed, and thence signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in an attempt to secure his eastern flank.
Like Putin, Stalin also sought membership inside NATO.
The Russians lost 27 million in that war, the third such war in which Russia was almost wiped off the face of the Earth after Napoleon and the Kaiser invaded years before, and even the US supported the whites in their civil war with Russia.
Stalin needed to dominate Eastern Europe as his way of guaranteeing Russian/Soviet security from future western invasions. That's why he pushed Germany's border back to the Oder-Nesse Line. That's why he dominated Eastern Europe. That's why he allowed Finland to remain neutral (because the west could not easily invade via Finland).
Stalin's post-WW2 domination of Eastern Europe was thus pragmatic, not ideological, much like the US has had its puppet states around the world since overthrowing Mossadegh in Iran.
@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns.....Very well said.
Most westerners don’t even know that Putin wanted to become a NATO member and do business with Europe.
Putin actually admires European culture, and up until recently, was doing a lot of business with Eastern Europe and Germany.
He thinks that leaders of countries are like absolute monarchs alone can decide everything. The thing is any leader is just a face representing many different power/financial structures and interests within a country. That's why Zel couldn't negotiate - his hands were and still are tied by banderites and Nato puppet masters.
How naive can grown up men be? What was last agreement that Russia actually kept? There's no country in the world who has discarded so many agreements as Russia.
Friedman is a great way to cure insomnia
I'll save you 15mins
Lex: I believe in fairy tales.
John: That's not how the real world works son. Plus Putin and Zelensky doesn't believe in fairy tales.
Thanks!
😂
You summed it up pretty well.
Thanks👍
LOL!! Haha. So true. Truth+humor in one short comment. Made my day! thanks
*The truth hurts doesn't it Lex.*
I agree with John, on that point.
@lexfridman you need to have a debate between Stephen Kotkin vs John Mearsheimer. JM would lose.
This guy, Fridman, is incredibly naive. Mearsheimer is being polite to him, and is gracious in the way that he is taking this guy to "school".
But Mearsheimer is appearing just as naive, pretending the agressor being the real victim here... with age it seems you CAN lose a sense of reality.
@@jojomojo3847 there is no black and white, kid
It's not Putin and Zelensky that need to talk - it's Putin and NATO.
NATO is a US client organization. Washington is an adversary .
did russia attack NATO or Ukraine? The russian invasion has nothing to do with NATO, its about Ukraine.
@@robosergTVyoure in the wrong comments section on YT for sure my friend.
@@robosergTVIt has everything to do with NATO. For Christ’s sake go and read something and become educated. So frustrating seeing these brain dead drone like comments.
That’s what some people still don’t get. It was never about Zelensky, he’s just a fall guy. It’s the US/NATO that are really pulling his strings.
Lex is a wonderful guy. Honestly! This is ugly war. Loss of young lives on both sides is staggering 😢
3:40 In every peace talk ever between leaders, they always come away with that "tremendous progress was made"; this line of thought isn't a useful anecdote.
From a Cold War to a Lukewarm War
Ukraine is fighting for is very survival as a country. For them it is very hot.
Ukraine is fighting because US and UK forced them, Ukraine has no say in this one
@@Wilykij This is a common Russian theme, that Ukraine is not a real country or culture, just a proxy, so why would people want to protect it? That is why Russians like you can not understand why they fight back. It is very insulting to Ukraine , but that is your point.
Oh, for God's sake stop with this drivel. The Banderites started all this crap.
How many people are playing muskovites' tune ((...
12:58 I'm not sure I understand Lex's point about human nature and trust. Lets say he's right that Putin has that capacity to trust Zelensky, like he's capable of doing it. But assuming Mearsheimer is right about the Minsk agreements (which idk), what reason has he been given to do so? For the hope of ending the war? Assuming Mearsheimer is correct about Minsk, then Putin can only believe that any negotiation now is yet another attempt for Ukraine to further entangle with NATO, resulting in an even bloodier war in a few years time.
Mearsheimer doesn't have an "opinion" about Minsk, that he can be right or wrong about. His statements on Minsk are based on explicit statements of EU officials made in a public forum. This is a matter of public record, it's a fact.
Not assuming- Uncle John is correct about Minsk.
Lex has no idea either he’s just trying to come off inspirational and is way out of his league.
95% of Americans don't truly understand the conflict. The minute you start repeating the official Party drivel you've become totally useless as an analyst.
Lex using platitudes substituting a lack of knowledge
America is the biggest obstacle to world peace.
Chamberlain (after meeting him) trusted Hitler (against his advisors) to not invade Czech. because he seemed honourable and said he wouldn't.
"Nato expansion is silly at this point"?! Have you talked about this with Finland and Sweden as well? If Putin's idea was to stop Nato expansion, he failed miserably: he got more than +1.300km of Nato border to take care of.
You can trust a person, a leader, because behind every leader there is a powerful group of people who can sabotage any promise.
Lex's ingenuity on geopolitcs is shocking.
John is so patient and thorough in his explanation. Amazing guy.
How does the US talk to Putin without admitting that Ukraine was just a proxy?
No need. It is widely known that Ukraine is just that.
@@yammy1688Putin is not picking up their phone calls. Putin hasnt been talking to Biden, Macron or Schultz since last year.
Welp it's a democracy guess it's a proxy. Unlike the baltic states where several heads are in fact plants by Putin, Ukraine elected its own leader, it's not a proxy, it's of interest to all of Europe to not have another Russian planted leader at their border. Get your brain retooled homie you sound like a bot or sympathizer to the invader. You know what a proxy looks like, go back to iran before 1979, or any of the sh*t the US did in the 1980s.
get lost with your false equivocation.
@@khairt1731not true
The question is, why is Russia so sensitive.
Lex, I like your idealistic solution to this situation. But I'm sorry to say, that will never happen.
Weren't the British the ones to push military aid for Ukraine in March-April of 2022?
What is super sad about that war is that neither side releases real casualties number, and we will likely never know the extent of the human cost of that war, more than estimates.
Why do you need the numbers and don't question the lack of critical thinking in the statements made by the guest?
@@RomanMakukhinzero chance you come from an educated background after saying this
10:45 civil war where FSB was the only reason it even started? Since 2014 Russia was in a hybrid war against Ukraine
5:10 Lex: "Let me push back on your argument" then Lex's argument basically makes Mearsheimer's point! 🤔
Lord Mountbaten: "If you have an ennemy, buy him ! If you have a friend, sell him !"
13:14 Would anyone explain how the British and Americans stopped a potential deal in March?
I will.The US sent clown Boris Johnson who told Zelenski to back off and keep fighting.
I do not understand why people consider this man to be controversial, yet alone immoral. If anything I think he provides sensible and pragmatic explanations of geopolitics in Europe/Russia
@rossmoore Because in my opinion he is against the white imperialist murderous, thieving ways.
Having picked their side/team, most people don't want to be confused by facts.
His school of IR realism is immoral or amoral. It boils down to “might makes right”.
Authoritarianism is also incredibly immoral and he seems to constantly apologize for powerful authoritarians as long as they are anti-American.
@rossmoore1155..... Mearsheimer has accurately defined the international relations between the US and NATO versus Russia in a remarkable way.
His take on the US military containment and persistent belligerence towards China over Taiwan however is woefully misguided.
His analysis is always predictably that everything is the fault of US and the West. He is giving blanket rationalization for Russia’s actions and let me be perfectly clear that he is absolutely saying that Russia is within its right to annex whatever territory it wishes and any country wanting to a join a military alliance to prevent this is in the wrong and is thereby provoking Russia. It is brainless and childish analysis of the sort you’d expect Russian propagandists to deploy. To be clear, I don’t think he’s some sort of Russian agent but his analysis is just as stupid and devoid of any meaningful nuance as Chomsky’s.
This school of thought is idiotic.
This war will also be seen with the perspective of time as the moment when after 300 years of looking West, Russia turns to full engagement with the East
The Chinese historyically are not fond of Russians. They would never really trust each other. That's what happens when you criminal mentalities on both sides.
@@rusaforever4651 sorry but highest gdp in Europe still is Germany
For how long ?@@doofyler
@@doofylerdo you know why it was Germany? Thanks to cheap russian gas.Now they will not have it)
@@victorbulachi1526 they don't have cheap russian gas for at least one year. Yet they still have a bigger gdp. Russia is basically Nigeria with a lot of snow and vodka. They're manufactured products are shits, only thing russia can seel is raw ressources. That's all
love ypu Lex, im with you
Lex truly does live in another world 😂
First time I've heard some youthful naive optimism from Lex.... You can kinda see it on John's face after the comment about individual leaders. Sometimes I think people forget that Politicians are the worst of us in a lot of ways, so much Ego, just having two of them sit at a table and talk rarely solves anything. If it did the world would be in far better shape than it currently is....
Putin himself honestly admitted something like "yes, political work maybe a dirty thing, in fact it is, but that's an unavoidable sad and sorrowful reality you need to accept if you want to make meaningful changes for the better by entering politics"
Russia has a leader, US does not (it has senile grandfather), Ukraine also does not (it has clown). So negotiation of leaders is impossible.
@@hrissan LMAO this! Whoever wins the next elections, things ain't gonna be any better.
👏
Brought to you by the same people who said it will be a three day operation.
I love all the people making comments that didn't listen to the full podcast. That's what sucks about short clips. Well done lex, I have you and Rogan side by side. Just depends on what I wanna learn today.
I've listened to many of John Mearsheimer's speeches. Super interesting. Awesome that he's on the Fridman show!
What do you think about: "A Critique of Realism" from Kraut?
Bear in mind this is the guy who wrote a paper in 89th saying if Germany unifies it will immediately and unavoidably invade Poland..... so much for his "expertise"
Lex really needs to stop offering his lame opinions.
He is so cringe
It is "Normie lame opinions" he offering.
ps. He just act as it is his own.
He is a Slavic, raised in US, brainwashed by US propaganda and has the mentality of 5 year old. So naive and childish.😂
Lex is Russian and he wants his people both Russian and Ukrainian (Slavic, Christian Men) to stop killing each other, it comes from a loving heart.
Of course he does. However, emotional reactions aren't useful in evaluating reality. @@AmbivertFellow
Lex, you need to read, 'The Empire of the City' (Knuth), to get a better idea of where this actually started.
Maybe you shouldn’t share you dumb opinion, not knowing the region
Samuel P Huntington theorized exactly what we're watching play out. The rise of the civilization states.
Have you ever read The Lion and the Unicorn by George Orwell?
The more I know, the less I know☹️
Sometimes I watch videos like this before going to bed. Not to hear some kind of revelation, just to make sure that not everyone in the West is crazy about their own narrative. It's nice to hear something reasonable sometimes. It doesn't even matter what