Why China won't attack Taiwan | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman
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- čas přidán 21. 11. 2023
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GUEST BIO:
John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.
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Full podcast episode: czcams.com/video/r4wLXNydzeY/video.html
Lex Fridman podcast channel: czcams.com/users/lexfridman
Guest bio: John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.
Common sense, if China really wants to land and occupy Taiwan, it is just pierce of cake, according to nowadays Chinese army’s capabilities.
China taiwan is chinese problem not a anglo sax problem. Look at middle east and ukraine problem??
Look Mr. John Mearsheimer and Lex Friedman - Taiwan was returned to China by Japan in 1945 via the Yalta & Potsdam Agreements, and the Cairo & Tehran Declaration of 1943 and 1944 by POTUS Franklin D Roosevelt & USSR's leader Joseph Stalin, with the UK's PM Churchill looking on the floor during these conferences. Also, Japan ruled Taiwan for 55 years from 1890 thru the end of WW2 in 1945. Also, China will NOT attack Taiwan, but can blockade it instead.
@@HoLeeFook68 Do you happen to know about Chinese “Sun Tzu's Art of War”? One of its main tricks is “Win the game without fighting”. As long as China keeps rising, Taiwan will return its motherland automatically without any war. Now Taiwanese have already had no more superiority in front of Chinese in almost all aspects. In addition, getting ride of occupation and returning its sovereignty are Japanese later on real destinations, instead of fighting against China. China rising is Japan’s big opportunity to be away from American colonization in Japan since WWII, same to Germany.
@@HoLeeFook68 Yes, without Chinese 3 great inventions, same as Americans, you could still live in cold and chilly caves like monkey, knowing nothing about outside and how to write.
I’m so glad that John told the truth that US care about Taiwan because Taiwan is an important US assets and not because of the political bs about democracy or people in Taiwan. 😂
Okay? And? China cares about Taiwan because it wants to enslave them. US saying nice things while having pragmatic reasons is still better.
Yeah. They say very similar thing to Ukraine aa well.
😂
Totally predictable. It’s foreign policy and Dr. M is a foreign policy realist. We supported Taiwan when it was a one party state. Where you born 15 years ago?
Taiwan have low IQ they are easy to brainwashed, they are dead set fighting for democracy but democracy is not the same as freedom, Taiwan will never be Europe
The white man see the world in black and white, except George Washington but he is dead long ago so we can't really be good anymore
The America today is not different from the colonialism Europe
I love how simple and direct he is. People dance around things so they don’t have to say the thing out loud.
He just says it.
Tenure is a beautiful thing
Well, this is John "Putin will have to be stupid to invade Ukraine" Mearsheimer.
There is only one evil country in the world who thrives on more wars feeding their military industrial complex no matter who the president is talk about freedom democracy BS
I listen to Mearsheimer a lot but he is often wrong and often admits it.
For the record, guy also said that Russia won't invade Ukraine
I would like to read more about this. Could you please link me to an article where Mearsheimer falsely predicted Russia won't invade Ukraine. I have already done a Google search to no avail. You help would be much appreciated.
@@BatCountryAdventures In his video about how "Ukraine is NATO's mistake" that Putin "will not invade Ukraine" because "he isn't stupid" Which already kinda shows you his lack of competency using argument which implies that he knows mind of a dictator (he does not)
@@user-rr9ng9bo9l That is taken out of context, he did say something like that, but more so in terms of occupation. He talked about how Russia does not want to occupy all of Ukraine, but rather bomb the fuck out of it which is what they are doing (the context for this was that Putin had saw the humiliating and disastrous attempt at American occupation in the middle east, that Putin isn't stupid enough to try to "Occupy" Ukraine). From my memory of that video you mentioned, I don't believe he ever said anything about Russia will never INVADE ukraine. Also, even if he did make an incorrect prediction, bro is still a widely recognized professor, one wrong prediction does not invalidate his competency, because if that was the case, nobody in history could ever be "competent".
@@njasow5234 Guy is like 1 doctor out of 10. He is widely criticized in his sphere along with Jeffrey Ballsacks, its unfortunate that he has such following mostly from global south and people in The West who distrust their government
@@user-rr9ng9bo9l Yeah, except it's the opposite in the case of China invade Taiwan or China collapsing in 5 weeks!
To say that because the guy is wrong once so he is wrong all the time is stupid.
China should have invaded Taiwan 50 years ago and counting for.
In fact, I have seen news in Hong Kong about "The Two Straits" from as long as I can read! People who are anti-China literally just started caring because their media told them. Prior to that, they know nothing apart from what their translator told them.
I have been to both mainland and Taiwan several times per year.
Let's be real here, it's not about "democracy" and it's not about the security of U.S. allies, but all about U.S. hegemony and it's mighty ego.
I’m retired Navy and I agree 100% with John. Having real world experience in blue water AND amphibious operations … it is indescribably difficult to land, in force, on a heavily defended island. Your losses would be incredible even if you could make it ashore. It would require the entire destruction of the island and everything on it ….. and at that point, what have you accomplished?
I don't think people really understand that's not what they want to do. Chinas main plan is to blockade Taiwan. Taiwan imports nearly everything it needs. China is developing missiles and a navy to strike the u.s navy and blockade Taiwan. They don't need to invade a fully strengthened Taiwan to win. I think the estimate is 3 weeks until Taiwan runs out of fuel for electricity and military which would make the task significantly easier. Also the lack of food and basic necessities would be a major issue if the u.s navy couldn't operate close enough to taiwan to stop a blockade.
Tell more friend.
This gives me happiness, that China cannot take Taiwan (I'm not Taiwanese btw, just someone who dislikes China)
@@Peter-jo6yustop using made in china phone then. And don't get our moon rocks that your NASA begged
Unification, Chinese can rebuild everything
It’s wild that Taiwan semiconductor wasn’t mentioned as to why the U.S. is interested in protecting Taiwan
Factory opens in USA 2025, there are issues but general principal they will make chips locally soon.
@@malkeir9781I think it that’s easier said than done. US likely won’t be able to produce them at nearly the same efficiency. Also it’s not just able us being able to produce them, it’s also about not letting China get their hands on that technology
@@gupeter2922 China will get their hands on it. They are making progress on chip upgrades. This economic war is only going a single direction. USA is continuing to isolate itself and it is in the process of destroying its own currency. Hyper inflation within 10 years. At best high inflation 6-7% for a long time but unlikely. Will end in a global war. Winner gets to decide what happens after that.
That's more of interest to the Chinese. The newest Huawei phone uses a chip from 2019. Japan would be next if Taiwan was invaded. It'd be a malignant expansion.
@@sirgooogenthat’s not true
During WW2 the United States actually did a study on invading Taiwan. ( Operation Causeway) Although it was only defended by about thirty thousand Japanese troops, the study revealed that Tawian would require a larger invasion force than Operation overlord to be successful, due to sea state and local geography, thus they decided to fight elsewhere. Now of course technology has changed in the interim, however that can be said for both sides. Like your guest I don't think it will come to violence in this matter. The CCP will seek other ways.
right now the issue impeding reunification isnt the defenses in the province of taiwan. it's the usakistani military and its lackeys.
withtout their inerference i would venture guess china could be reunified in less than 2 weeks.
@@sabin97yeah, there is no "Taiwan province", keep dreaming commie.
Personally I think that Taiwan should flip the script, declare independence, announce they are the legitimate government of China and demand the CCP surrender. What is the CCP going to do about it? Cry to the U.N.?
democracy also means rule of law, capitalism, good for business, not just the ideal which is important and real.
@@sabin97 little pinky so sad.
2025:
"Yeah, so I was wrong, we all make mistakes. Who told you to put your faith in my words?"
- John Mearsheimer
Exactly 😂
Im blown away how honest and to the point this guy is. None of this "democracy must protect other democracy" bullcrap I see on the internet all the time.
we dont want china dominate asia. we usa want to dominate asia
That's because most of the west's spoilt population are so privileged they have become idealistic unfortunately the world isnt as nice as people like to think and all that idealism promote aggression against us
the united states isn't even a democracy
its because hes not a politician, he doesnt have to hide behind that bullshit and he is known for being a realist
Welcome to International Relations and Warfare studies 😅
This gentleman once said that Putin would not be stupid enough to invade ukraine. Please hold him accountable for his nonsense.
Because he was thinking no other country can do as America did.
saying putin is stupid is luaghable , just shows how brainwashed you westerners are by your medias narratives.
Its pretty clear his opinion has since shifted to "OK, maybe China COULD be stupid enough to invade Taiwan if we don't take deterrence seriously" which I would agree with.
He was right putin is stupid
Didn’t he say a decade ago that Ukraine is going to get wrecked if things continue as they were?
Points that made Chinese assault on Taiwan difficult (non exhaustive):
>There are only about 14 beaches suitable for an amphibious assault. Other locations are either too narrow or straight up cliffs.
>>These 14 beaches are known to the Taiwanese army so they are heavily fortified.
>Seas in general are really rough to sail through, and Taiwan Strait only has 2 calmer windows which is April and October. Other times are having waves that are too big to send troops through or covered in heavy fogs.
>Most of TSMC factories are close to the above mentioned beaches while next to military bases. So as long as China still want the chips, it is hard to do saturation bombing to control air and sea dominance.
>Modern satellites made it easy to predict if China is gathering its forces and resources near the coast. This gives Taiwan a much more time to prepare e.g. put sea mines across the Taiwan Strait, deploy tanks to guard the beaches, and coordinate with allies for preparation.
>Amphibious warfare is very hard mainly due to the fact that you can't just send all the ships at once.
>>First, any of the beaches aren't even that big to hold that many ships, so ships has to send troops in waves.
>>Second, what do you do with the sank ships that block other ships? Sank ships just make Chinese troops have to travel further from the sea to the beach
>>>Mind you, this is the troops, after going through hours of rough sea condition, risking getting bomb tf out by Taiwan navy/air force/sea mines, then in full gear, having to swim through the shallow sea, then face barrage of machine guns and tanks with nothing but guns.
>>Third, the sea/air dominance would be very hard to achieve with the density of missiles available in Taiwan. One of the highest in the world. It is simply a cost problem: (assuming 0 value in human life because China) training a pilot + building jet > missiles
Even going strictly by values and viability, the assault is still very hard to pull off. Let alone that US is doing more and more training for Taiwanese military and supplying with better weapons to effective deter China.
I would also suspect that Taiwan has significantly increased the amount of mobile missiles (nlaw etc) that can be operated by small units near the coast
What medicine did you take? 😂😂😂 Do you even know Taiwan economy depends so much with China? All military strategy you have will not work when there's no money support.
@@hiskandar I don't need medicine, but you should take some red pills and wake up.
Currently, majority of Taiwan's exports are electronic components sent to China to manufacture into consumer product. Since all the manufacturer factories are shifting away from China, Taiwan can simply sell the components to those countries with factories instead. It is happening already. Taiwan isn't relying on China, Taiwan relies on where factories are. Case and point, Taiwan hasn't suffer any economical loss from foreign companies pulling out of China.
Any war on Taiwan Strait will not work because 50% of the global commercial container traffic passes through Taiwan Strait daily. Going around Taiwan will severely disrupt supply chain cost. No countries will allow to see their businesses suffer like that.
Not to mention china has a tofu military. They can't even use their new aircraft carrier. They are afraid to sail it because it isn't sea worthy. Paper tiger is all china is.
@@hiskandar
it's not all the reasons given here
it's that taiwan is too small to war
what is happening
god/abraham's 3religions christian uk usa - muslim jew mideast r the only colonist criminals on earth
they'll return all stolen lands
natives tribal aborigine redindians in the americas australia newzealand n all islands r from china so all these/whole pacific n half atlantic belongs to china so return all with reparation n without a shot -
like british hongkng n portuguese macau -
the 2 omens of things to come n
all racist greedy evil thieves 600mil total immigrate back home to origin - europe india africa spain mideast ...
A few counter point to this:
1. China wants to take Taiwan not because it has TSMC. Even if the island does not have TSMC China wants to unite with it because it is part of China. If it really comes down to a hot war, you cannot count on China will "tread lightly" because of TSMC. In fact, if China actually manages to take TW with TSMC intact, the engineers that actually matters will already been moved out and someone on our side will blow that infrastructure up like a certain pipeline.
2. Comparing this to Normandy is a mistake, sure they're both amphibious assaults that requires huge landing force, but the similarities stops there. Normandy stand in front of a whole continent. Aside from the stockpile that's already built up, they can manufacture their own weapons, ammunition, oil, coal, steel. TW is an island the size of Maryland, it isn't even self sufficient in food let alone anything else you might need to fight a war. We're talking about a few weeks supply for energy to keep the lights on and the trucks running.
3. China has MLRS that can hit the island directly from the mainland, a fraction the cost of what it is taking Russia to hit Ukrainian targets. Not to mention perhaps the largest and most advanced drone fleet. If by the time Chinese ground forces decides to land, and there are still a formidable defense force on the beachfront, then the air force, navy and rocket force didn't do their jobs. So if the US does not step in directly, the only thing TW has going for itself is that the Chinese military is really as incompetent as we hoped.
Of course we should keep in mind that Taiwan was NEVER under the CPC, so the CPC can't legitimately claim Taiwan.
@@bobjacobson858learn some history. Taiwan was and is part of China according to UN. Otherwise, let Taiwan join UN.
@@bobjacobson858How old are you kid? The CCP and the KMT were part of the same government after the abdication of the Qing government after 1911. The infighting cause the civil war splitting them into two parties. The KMT didn't control the island of Taiwan pre October 1945 too. But the Qing government that handed the island to the Japanese in 1895 did. The CCP is claiming to be the successor to the KMT that controls the island of Taiwan AND finish the civil war the KMT started in 1923.
You might need to learn a bit of history about this island.
@@rusticbox9908 Hmm, 1985? Maybe YOU need to study history a bit, too! In any case, saying that "the CCP is claiming to be the successor to the KMT..." doesn't make it so, at least not for Taiwan. The KMT LEFT the mainland when the CCP took over, so what the CCP did on the mainland is IRRELEVANT to the situation in Taiwan, regardless of how much BS Xi the Pooh serves his audience. (BTW, statistically I'm likely to be older than you!)
@@bobjacobson858 1895* Typo.
The KMT left the mainland? That's to put it lightly, they attacked the CCP members in 1923 starting a civil war to date is technically still fighting.
Because they left the mainland and it's all rosy and the CCP should leave them alone? The KMT/DPP need to find another island, only a matter if time till they get ejected or sign a peace agreement.
It's the legitimacy successor issue they're claiming. Since only 5 of 195 countries on this planet recognize taiwan as an independent country, there's no recognition there either.
Lex you should bring a Taiwanese to talk about Taiwan and its state affairs. This guy is giving his view but with a western-centric lens.
Long time US-Taiwan expat here. The western media hypes an imminent 'conflict' much more than Taiwanese people here. Most are fine with keeping the "status quo' here.
Agreed. He is not even offering anything new or different from dozens of other Western-centric analysts (I understand that his specialty is Russia-Europe geopolitics, not East Asia, and here he is just mechanistically applying his model developed to explain Russia-Europe to China-Taiwan).
He does that purposely
Mearsheimer had a debate with Kevin Rudd (china expert) and got destroyed
If Lex is going to do that, he needs to bring on two or three Taiwanese with different viewpoints. Just like westerners, Taiwanese can not agree on how to deal with threat from China.
Really impressed with Lex's relevant mention of geopolitical and military expert Elon Musk, who also thinks that tanks are now outdated due to the advent of anti tank weapons. Wait until Elon finds out that bullets can kill infantrymen.
Post-WW2 tank doctrine that posited quick movements of massed tank 'fists' and prioritized tank-vs-tank combat *is* clearly outdated. In particular, the 'Western' school of tank design that derives from this is obviously broken. In a world where kamikaze FPV drones exist, concentrating all of your armour on the frontal projection of your MBT is suicide. Adding weight and complexity to out-distance an opposing MBT is as well. This isn't a theory - it's the primary lesson from the war in the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. You simply don't have the sorts of engagements MBTs are designed for. The sorts of uses they actually do have, they are poorly suited for. In addition, without close infantry support they're dead against a near-peer adversary and urban engagements require a new type of vehicle that, albeit it derives from a tank, is an entirely different beast. So Elon Musk happens to be right to a degree - the concept of large tank formations as the motive force of a large combined-arms high-intensity conflict against a capable adversary is dead. The fact that when he's right it's often the same reason a broken clock is right twice a day is beside the point.
@@paulie-g Adequate air support can overcome most of the challenges you raised. In addition, adequate smokescreen equipment can block drones from spotting massed movements of tanks, which of course to be the most effective still need sufficient infantry support.
@@guydreamrsmoke doesn’t help you with fpv drones.
@@dakotareid1566 Yes, smoke is effective with FPV drones.
Smoke can’t hide the heat bloom like for instance a US Abrams tank jet engine gives off so well, and that’s what the drone can see so well.
This level of honesty is much needed for both sides to fully understand the situation thus not to do anything stupid. I’m really curious to know what he thinks would happen or would mean to the US if China dominates Asia? And what does he mean by “ dominate” , is it like how US dominates both north and Latin America?
wtf r u on about? China can't even dominate China, or keeps it's capital from getting flooded LOL
LOL "Both Sides". Anyone who uses this term is an idiot. It's hilarious and embarrassing you still think like a child. You're a Bush War voter who ran away for sure.
US is the leader behind the current world order. Part of the reason why is because since WW2 they have blocked the communism by the first island chain : Taiwan , Philippines, Japan and South Korea. If China were to take Taiwan, they have the ability to break through the blockade and challenge the USA with their navy over the control of global order!! US won’t let it happen for sure though
Lex, you and your guests provide great insight. Thank you
John Mearsheimer has been thoroughly disgraced, not sure why you are thanking him.
Lex never misses a chance to name drop Elon lmao
Why not Elon is one of one
@@BeitBridga communist twit that wants to give Taiwan to China.
What’s the problem? Elon is a person. He knows Elon.
@@kavish_music_ofc interviewers mention everyone they know no matter how irrelevant to the conversation?
I want take away food
Taiwanese here, there's literally zero tension in our daily lives. I'm more worried about fixing the stuttering issue on my copy of Half-Life 1 than literally anything else going on.
Just get a copy of Black Mesa man. HL1 is gonna have a host of compatibility issues in this day and age.
Its more that the 5 eyes worrying about their grip on world order (which is slipping day by day).
Thats the same what the young people in Odessa and Kiev said in February 2022
Ty Jake
That’s because you got mighty USA behind you from their military bases in Japan, Philippines and Guam.
The 'American' invasion of Normandy?!! There was me thinking it was an allied endeavour, with British, Canadians, Australian, Poles - and Americans. As a Brit I totally recognise the resources both in manpower and materiel that the US contributed. But it was a joint effort Mr Mearsheimer. I'd be grateful if you'd have the decency to acknowledge that.
I'm Taiwanese, one big problem with John Mearsheime's theory of "amphibious is hard" is military in Taiwan are corrupt and useless.
Yes, it seems obvious that Taiwanese military leadership will choose the most rational course which is to not fight at all, but to accept whatever bribes the Chinese are willing to pay them to lay down their arms.
@@donkeychan491 I'm not talking about China bribes Taiwan military. Every man in Taiwan need to serve 1~2 years in military. Do you know what we do in military? Clean leafs. After the military service I still don't know how to reload a freaking gun!
@@donkeychan491 In fact, during the civil war, the KMP's army lost to the CCP with a huge advantage. If China's military was commanded by the CCP when fighting Japan, then the United States might not need to participate in the war.
every military I have read about or heard about in history was corrupt....many thought to be "useless" as you said too....that did not prevent strategic manures, tactics and engagement from happening and in many cases the outcomes were unexpected.....no military is immune from corruption...corruption allegations have little meaningful credibility for the sake of discussion, unless they can be quantified and verified for strategic analysis.
Seems to be sort of a Chinese thing on both sides of the strait.
I’ve been through the Taiwan straits. Craziest rough seas I’ve ever sailed on.
I’ve never been through those straits, but if you want ornery and rapidly changeable water you must visit the North Sea.
@@c.philipmckenzie yeah I heard about that
@@c.philipmckenzie I've spent plenty of time above the Arctic Circle and in the North Sea, but nothing prepared me for going around the bottom of South American, that was insane.
In the face of modern weapons, this matter is nothing. The difficulty lies in anti-intervention.
@@ddzg-pp3jz if you talking occupation and conquest it defiantly plays factor. Logistics reeniforcwmwnts. Only certain times of the year you can traverse the Taiwan straite
Then when China invades "War in Taiwan is the fault of US and NATO" by John Mearsheimer.
yep, Mearsheimer has no clue
@@ozinvesting6517or he lies
Taiwanese people call themselves Chinese. They think they should rule whole Asia continental chinna . IMO
Well he wouldn't be wrong. Literally every scenario about a war with China involves America CHOOSING to attack China. Not the other way around.
I was in the Marines and I conducted actual amphibious landings in the pacific as training and it's extremely difficult to pull off. I can't imagine doing it in a real life combat situation.
D-day? And that was 70+ years ago
@@vytaskereisis3200 Congratulations you can't count. That doesn't change the fact of the matter that amphibious landings aren't extremely difficult to pull off even in a perfect scenario
@@cecarter10
Recall the success-rate of european warmongers in Asia? It is abysmal!
Atomic bombs were used for one foolish 'victory'.
Now, you 'can count'; but still miss the implication of passage of time, and 'advancement in technology and strategy':
With satellites to assist targeting and with enough missiles to completely blanket Taiwan, why bother with "amphibious landing of 70+ years ago"? Why? lol
Chinese can 'see' and hit ANY target in Taiwan!
So why endanger Chinese soldiers with 'amphibious landing'?
European warmongers can't even match Russian production and logistics NEXT-DOOR in Ukraine; you think they will be able to contend with Chinese massive production capabilities and the Long Distance need to be covered to supply Taiwan?
You guys definitely have no idea what China is capable of these days...
@@rashedprime
I’ll bet you do not either
Interesting quote from last month's Business Insider magazine: _'The three largest employers in China are the oil and gas industry, the Aerospace industry and the Mining industry. The three largest employers in the United States are Walmart, McDonalds and Home Depot.'_
Can you send a link to the article? I cannot find it.
Those are individual companies. Not industries lol
I hope war doesn’t happen between Taiwan 🇹🇼 and China 🇨🇳
It won't.
@@Chadmeleonwhy you confident about it, i think it will because china is pretty serious about it and a big country like this one, won't waste time on something not happening!
@@Oussamazonic war between Taiwan and China won't happen, because its no contest. What could happen is war between China a the whole alliance as a consequence.
@xonicso2275 It is in America's geopolitical interests for war in Asia where Chinese, Filipinos, Japanese, South Koreans, AND Indians to take big losses. Especially China since China is actually big enough to challenge American dominance. But China is extremely patient, and they will wait to the point where taking Taiwan even by force is not so costly. Their power in the region grows much faster than America, so they're not rushing it. Also given time, Taiwanese will be less resistant of the idea of One Country. That is their natural progression given geopolitics and history
@@Rosaslav No, the North Korea will strike when China Attacks. The EU can't support. India will likely attack Pakistan. India won't attack China, they're not stupid. They're fighting over mountains (fyi).
You know, I wasn't previously worried but now that I hear Mearsheimer speak so confidently, I am.
Exactly. Because he has the mental acumen of a fifteen year old boy.
Relax, Mearsheimer's only an academic. He views nations as being led by humanlike machines, not led by humans with flawed thinking. So when some leader does something stupid, it blows his academic mind. He applies logic where there sometimes isn't logic. Like the out of touch Dr trying to reason with the junkie who's pointing a gun and robbing him.
When China invades he will immediately pivot to "It's Americas fault"
Why is that?
@@rebornstillbornlol. If China indeed invade Taiwan, Mearsheimer probably on the side that want United States intervened to stop China. He has two different views regarding Ukraine and Taiwan. Accusing he will play "it's America's fault" card if China indeed invade Taiwan is ridiculous for not understanding Mearsheimer's view on US grand strategy
Of course China wouldn’t just send surface vessels across the sea against Taiwan defenses. They would first attempt to neutralize defenses with air forces. Air power is incomparably more complex now than Normandy invasion. And China puts a heavy emphasis on their Air Force for a reason.
Ok, but they still do not have the ability to capture Taiwan. Providing that the USA does not will it.
@@johnnykrauze without international intervention, China could certainly capture Taiwan. Saying that the 2nd greatest military in the world can’t project its power to an island off its coast isn’t serious.
@jonathangardner41what happened to russia being the second military in the world? 😂
@@yuriy5376 I wouldn't have ever said Russia has a stronger military than China. China has like 4x the military budget, many times the economy size, and many many more people.
Air force? Are you living in WW2 era? Air force is a relic of the past... China has supersonic missiles and drone fleet that can hit across the Straits.
Both the PRC and the RoC are dominated by the Han Chinese, who mostly see this as a Chinese issue. This will be settled by the Chinese, between the Chinese. The issue is how to make sure all the factions are served and we are reaching a point where that can happen.
this is a false narrative. US, Uk are dominanted by English. If US didn't get the help from France, it wouldn't gain independence from UK.
In another video John said Russia won’t attack Ukraine😂😂😂😂
I think he relies too much on a thought that actors are rational and ignores the fact they can be irrational or have completely deranged picture of reality. There is tons of evidence showing that Russia-Ukraine war was thought to last a month or two. If it was successful Putin would become a hero for Russians, he would be cheered, his regime, his security and security for his friends and children would be guaranteed, the West would be shocked by the power of Russian army. This is a pretty rational thing to do if you know you will win. But something went wrong (if you are a dictator you always hear what you want to hear not what the reality is).
The same thing (relying on rationality) leads mr John to the conclusion about the reasons for the war - and his reasoning goes against the consensus from the Russian intelligencia. Pretty interesting that Russians studying Russian regime and living inside Russia have a completely different thoughts on that, right? Unfortunately what they say does not correlate with a wide spread anti-americanism and they are not heard neither listened.
Unfortunately the war is the thing which promotes nationalism and makes other things go away, so in my point of view the war is inevitable because it's the best way to hide away from an internal problems. But Taiwan maybe not the first - China can invade Vietnam or Philippines or whatever. War is a tool to make an average citizen of a country happy (at least he is a citizen of a country that is badass).
He explicitly said that Russia will do what they have said to do which is to invade Ukraine if the US tries to expand NATO territory/ the US sphere of influence further east thus infiltrating their sphere of influence right before their borders. Obama didn‘t take the warning seriously and so the Russias dis what they said they‘d do all along. It’s power politics, nothing has ever changed.
Because he could not persuade some interest groups in power
@@andrewzhukov304 No, Putin decision to invade Ukraine wasnt irrational, just very poorly informed about the horrible state of the Russian army and how much the European countries were completely through with his bullying over the last decade. Instead of a hardened, NATO-trained and armed Ukraine army, backed by the most extensive economic sanctions ever, Putin thought he could just have a quick repeat of the first invasion of Ukraine or even Georgia. Like before, present NATO a fait accompli and leaving them only the option of economic sanctions that would hurt themselves too (which meant before these had always been just a mere slap on the wrist).
And this is why most experts didn't predict the invasion. They fully recognized how foolish and self-destructive it would be as the situation had completely shifted over the last decade. But nobody had realized how isolated and poorly informed Putin had become in his ivory tower.
@@andrewzhukov304 China did try to invade Vietnam in 1979, got their ass kicked in 9 days and had to run back to the border.
I get a sense that this won't age well
Just as everything else this old fool "predicted" 😂
You have a fantastic studio/hardware set up btw!
The last successful contested amphibious landing depending on how you define it was either Okinawa in 1945 or Inchon in 1950. Nobody has dared try it since then. Including us in both Gulf Wars
Why the fixation on the asinine "amphibious landing" in the more 'advance' Age of Blockade & Satellites & Mass-production & hyper-sonic-MISSILES? lol
Bet Chinese by now have a catalogue of ALL vulnerable points on Taiwan, and can hit them copiously from a few kilometers across the strait?
Then if landing has to take place, it would be to bring Humanitarian Aid to Taiwan.
That’s not how this works. Armies either dropped in my an Air Force or taken there in Navy ships need to seize land. No country has ever submitted to a non-nuclear aerial assault, not the Nirth Cietnamese, not the Germans and not the Japanese. The Res Chinese won’t have any better luck vs Taiwan than any of the others if they can’t land their troops. And doing that is really hard/impossible in 2024.
@@nirbijaif it were soo simple no one would be chatting about about it. China knows they would be ruined in every sense possible. This is why they haven’t done anything, still.
Falklands War was a thing mate.
@@nicksutton3192 The beach landings weren't contested. The Argentinians didn't attack until the Brits has already established a bridgehead. But that is the closest thing since Inchon that anyone has tried that.
This is an academic person... Not someone with actual experience
Good point
Actually, Mearsheimer is a graduate of West Point and served as an Air Force Officer for 5 years. That being said, he's a bit too enamored of his own theory of Great Power politics and it led him to some false conclusions on Russia and Ukraine. Specifically he said that Putin doesn't want Ukraine (false), can't occupy Ukraine (true), and just wants to weaken the state and keep it out of NATO. As far as China, he's making the assumption that Xi is well informed and has a realistic worldview. Putin doesn't have a realistic worldview and look where it got him.
I like the idea China will not attack Taiwan. The catch is that Mearsheimer said Putin would not attack Ukraine and we can see how that prediction turned out.
Well Putin would have not attacked Ukraine if NATO did not provoke him
@@lukey08 That is both a lie and an excuse. Putin recently gave a speech saying Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians are all supposedly 1 people thus should be in 1 nation. Except he doesn't want want to accept the idea Ukrainians are allowed to disagree. Also early into the current war Putin started the dictator of Belarus announced and displayed on a map the notion Poland would be attacked after Ukraine. He probably was not expecting Ukraine to prove Putin wrong like it did-Putin claimed Ukraine would fall in three weeks.. and it still has not happened.
Slava Ukraini.💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛@@pplr1
@@lukey08xi would probably say the same thing lol.
@@lukey08not only was Russia provoked, they were provoked into a good decision. Russia is going to win this war, and will be in a better and safer position from further nato threats.
Two things I could be utterly wrong on:
1) Eversince WW2, Pentagon has maintained capacity to fight 2 superpowers at once
2) China seems more interested in posturing than engaging Taiwan/America, given likely decades' consequences
Erm... Ukraine has exposed the lack of military manufacturing capacity to maintain a long high intensity war. US can make an impressive initial strike but if that isn't decisive (which it won't be against a peer enemy) then they are in trouble. Russian is out manufacturing arms vs the whole West, what capacity does China have?
@@Durnyful How did you arrive at Russia being more than at best near-peer, and then to whom? Also parts of Europe now considering boots on ground aside the necessary comittment to aid flow. The only way I see American aid changing is if POTUS changes this cycle, in which European powers increase supply and potentially introduce presence.
@@ryvyr Europe is nothing militarily without the US. I doubt even European politicians would risk ww3 for Ukraine & the US certainly won't as their focus is moving on to China
Most third world countries are jointly confronting the United States economically, politically, and militarily, and the collapse of the United States' global hegemony is not far away.
@@user-bu3wp3up9f There appears much truth to that in parts, and Congress mucking about with aid where crucial as well selective inaction are not helping with perception of long held status, for better or worse. The US does wield plenty massive soft sticks and is by far the wealthiest nation in history insofar aware, though especially China looks poised to possibly overtake in maybe 10ish years~ New paradigms seem inevitable in long run, of course. LLMs and such could change all of this, as well.
D-Day was incredibly difficult with misdirection and the element of surprise. There's no way that the Chinese wouldn't telegraph their intentions across the Taiwan Strait.
“The American invasion of Normandy…..” No Canadians, no Brits. The usual schtick.
well Eisenhower was the supreme allied commander , sooo
The majority of soldiers there were Americans I just think it was an oversight he made in the moment while in conversation don't take it so seriously
Chill big guy ull be ok
America 2 years late to the 2nd World War
US government was initially supportive of Hitler.
It always baffles me that most people talk about Taiwan the island without knowing its actual country name( the one on their passport) is Republic of China. They were the legit government of China (including mainland) during WW2, while the current Chinese government (PRC) was just rebels. The division was a product of civil war between communism and non-communism(hard to give them a name as they don't have a clear ideology, probably why they failed) after WW2. It is similar to East/West Germany and South/North Korea. Everyone seem to omit that for unclear reason
Pretty sure everyone who knows even a little history is aware of that. It just isn't that relevant considering the entire world started treating the communist China as the real China a long time ago. It's just easier to talk to someone about and call them Taiwan, and avoid confusion. Obviously if you're from Taiwan you would know. Unfortunately most Americans don't even know the capital of our own country anymore and I'm sure have no idea where Taiwan even is.
I’m glad they aren’t part of China since China treats its citizens like slaves.
@@AceManning18 Make sense. I mentioned this as John said other asian countries would worry that after China take Taiwan, they might expand to Japan, Korea etc. Also I hear arguments like China is not acquisitive so don't worry too much about Taiwan. What I am trying to call out was why, as Elon mentioned, Taiwan was so special to China. The possibility of their continuation of "acquiring" is very low, but at the same time they are dead serious and determined about one China policy.
"Taiwan" isn't a county. the Republic of China considers themselves an extension of the province of Fujian
Because if American and European media tells that true story... Then their citizens will say "ok then Taiwan is part of China".
And where do the US fight another war and contain China? Truth doesn't matter, only manipulation and wars do for Americans.
"Not to let them evolve" - the essence of US democracy
That’s been the essence of powerful countries for millennia so your statement doesn’t really mean anything
@@theflanman420420 Nobody wants to put up with this, including Russia. That's the point.
This not gonna age well!
Really enjoy listening to a guy explain that you can’t drive tanks across an ocean lol
lmfao
Peak brain in this video.
>amphibious tanks have entered the chat
American can do nothing to Chinese neither!
@@tinaz1818ableok china bot
I fought in the ring for years. I was 165 lbs. a 240 wannabe fighter challenged me to bare knuckles. I knew I couldn’t win. When we fought I played dirty. I had a broken nose and 16 stitches. He won. But he spent 2 days in the hospital and had to have his jaw pinned and still walks with a limp. I have not been challenged since. I am always scared to fight but their fear is greater. There is to much to lose.
This makes me think of all those people in the lead up to WW2 that thought the Maginot Line would hold the Germans back. 'Its so well fortified, the losses would be tremendous'
Not just an amphibious invasion but Taiwan is like half mountains half urban. Also Taiwan has a lot of microchip factories which are very valuable and you don’t wanna blow up those buildings.
4:50: I appreciate Lex saying to consider China's point-of-view. To that Mearsheimer didn't want to answer or to expand on. He is biased.
100% biased, who gave the USA the mandate to be world police? I see nowhere here where anyone is saying, lets see how we can work together to ensure we all feel safe... Heads up guys. Taiwan IS China, just like Texas is America going to war over Taiwan is interfering in China's domestic affairs. This control and contain the world strategy is what's gonna have America becoming a third world country in the next 100 years.
He is. The Republic of China. Why care about the communist party of China?
he adressed China's point of view to the extent we need: don't question the One China Policy oficially, because then it's an obvious chicken game scenario. But everything else we don't have to consider.
@@nunterz Denying one China will result in severing diplomatic relations.
John Mearsheimer, my favourite Geopolitics guru I can listen all day
This guy has not spent a lot of time doing military analysis. He seems more like a historian.
Agreed, I didn't find anything useful in the exchange.
Normandy has nothing to do with today's war, there were no missiles in Normandy time.
the point is land is super easy to cross. Water much more difficult. If the goal was only to sned missles that'd be one thing but it isn't. The goal is to send troops and loyal satraps who will proxy govern for the mainland.
@@ewilson0223 But why Russian can't easily move ahead into the land? You only need to have enough missiles (rocket) to clean up some 3 km land to let the troop landing. However, if China really needs to use force, just remove the power, the electricity, the water, the gas, the internet, the TV, how long do you think those people in the island can hang on, 3 weeks? try to live without electricity, water, gas, internet, TV, ..., just like in the stone age 3 days, and let me know what's your feeling.
@@edwardzhou6936 well the people in Palestine have been hanging on for months so you’re clearly underestimating how long people can hold on if they have the motivation
Missiles can also shoot down satellites, which means space observation and missile guidance can be obliterated in an instant.
China, Russia and the US are all capable of knocking out all the satellites over a particular battle area close to home.
The reason Russia hasn't done this is that it would escalate a war they don't yet need to escalate in such a way.
@@ryanc5997 There is an old Chinese saying that it is difficult to move from luxury to frugality.
Lex, US was not the source of the so called "Century of Humiliation", it was mostly European powers including Russia at first, and later on Japan. US is deemed as enemy of POC by Mao because he needed support from Stalin to grab and stay in power, and Stalin wanted Mao to antagonize US to relieve pressure in Europe. The only time when US had a military action in mainland China was during the Boxer Rebellion when US participated a global coalition to rescue the diplomatic community in Peking. US donated all its share of the proceeds from that war's reparation to China by building the first university in China currently known as Beijing University, hospitals across the country which are still ranked in the top within the country, paying for Chinese students to study and live in US. During WWII, US policy of sanctioning Japan economically was the primary reason why Japan decided to go to war with US. The Flying Tiger, an US privately organized air combat unit helped the KMT to fight against Japanese airforce. After Nixon's visit to China, US was the first country which supplied capital, manufacturing knowhow to China in her initial phase of opening the country.
'Needed Stalin's support' is to be misguided. He sought Stalin because they were geographical and politically similar while China could exploit that grossly to their advantage
Mao tried to make friend with US. US refuse to recognise PRC. that is why Mao move against US. it was US that refuse to accept him, not he who refuse to accept US.
Exactly. Not to mention the US allowing China into the WTO which former PM of Australia and Chinese expert Kevin Rudd has said did more than anything to turbocharge the Chinese economy.
As a Chinese, when we talk about Century of Humiliation, it's referring to the fact that China is weak and other nations took advantage, and that "other nations" is a very large set of countries including countries in the Eight-Nation Alliance, which includes the United States. Some more recent "humiliation" includes the Yinhe incident and the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Of course, Americans have had their honey moon period with China and are not even close to the level of the Japanese, but it's a source of the humiliation nonetheless. If you're not familiar with this part of history, maybe try not to educate someone else i.e. Lex who's clearly better versed in this area than you.
@@RandomGuy-ghs Oh please, I would hardly characterize the accidental bombing of your embassy a national humiliation. The United States has apologized for the incident and paid compensation to the victims of the bombing and their families. Time to move on from a grievance mentality and adopt a more mature outlook toward international relations.
Great guest. Excellent host. Thank you
RS. Canada
"Why Russia won't invade Ukraine"
"Why Germany won't invade Russia"
"Why Japan won't attack the USA"
How did it go for them?
False equivalences. How about:
"China will invade Taiwan" 1992
"China will invade Taiwan" 1993
"China will invade Taiwan" 1994
"China will invade Taiwan" 1995
"China will invade Taiwan" 1996
"China will invade Taiwan" 1997
"China will invade Taiwan" 1998
"China will invade Taiwan" 1999 etc etc etc
On D-Day, the Allies landed around 156,000 troops in Normandy. 73,000 American (23,250 on Utah Beach, 34,250 on Omaha Beach, and 15,500 airborne troops), 83,115 British and Canadian (61,715 of them British) with 24,970 on Gold Beach, 21,400 on Juno Beach, 28,845 on Sword Beach, and 7,900 airborne troops.
This isn't the 40s anymore. Warfare is totally different
@@M.L.official Different, agreed - totally different? I'm more than a little wary of binary statements with regards to human systems/the historical record. My point was that it was a little simplistic to say 'the Americans landed at Normandy' and after looking up the numbers, I was surprised myself at the ratios of combatants from other countries.
nothings changed lol. The Germans were woefully under prepared for an coastal invasion in that area. And the allies had complete naval superiority and air superiority for months prior to the invasion.@@M.L.official
@@Ironpancakemoose yea true bro 70+ years later nothing's changed. We haven't even left the 20th century! Why even bother talking about anything? Who cares about the technological aspects and advancements in equipment, satellites, radar, drones, vehicles. All the same. We still have Shermans and T44s driving around and people are still using M1 Garand
lol, "technological aspects", defensive technology and offensive technology both progress, and the only thing that matters is which one is currently temporarily ahead.
Sure, its stupid now to build big concrete bunkers on the beach, unlike in 1943. But a soldier camouflaged in a rat hole near the beach can more accurately destroy a amphibious vehicle in the water than a pak43 in a reinforced casemate. And the modern solider is better protected than a gun in a casemate.@@M.L.official
He didn't even mention the semiconductors that are primarily made in Taiwan in his top 2 reasons to defend them?
Those can be shifted elsewhere.
@mdzaid5925 Why haven't they? I don't know the answer. It makes no sense to me that 1 little island of the coast of China supplies over 90% of the world's microchips. Why wouldn't each country have their own manufacturing facilities in country? Just to avoid being this vulnerable...
@@evansmoak7182 It's simply because China played clever card. They became self sufficient (more or less) and pushed their currency to go down, which made production & manufacturing (of almost everything) alot more cheaper than anywhere else. Businessmen only care about their profits, so it made most sense to them to invest and manufactur in China.
Now, Taiwan is located close to China & has somewhat democracy. This made them a perfect candidate for high-tech chip production as this tech does not get's in hands of China.... but at the same time, Taiwan is easily able to access markets of China.
Now the world is catching up. US invested heavily in Chip industry under Biden, India is also investing in the same. Not sure about other countries.
@@evansmoak7182 because of taiwan's politics, economy and geographic location in asia, its the perfect place for manufacturing. The labour is skilled and cheap enough to supply 90% of the world's microchips. If you manufacture elsewhere, it becomes expensive or you receive sub-par fabrication.
Would it be cheaper to defend taiwan, or start building domestic manufacturing plants in your own country? Intel is building a very large chip plant in ohio; it started last year. iPhones are now being made in India. Nobody knows what will happen, but we can all make a guess.
Since all of Mearsheimer's predictions turn out to be woefully wrong, this one has me worried.
Here are some wise and simple words, NEVER UNDERESTIMATE.
One strong reason not mentioned here:
"TSMC, which is sometimes called just Taiwan Semiconductor, is a multinational design and manufacturing company. While it is owned primarily by foreign investors, it is located in Hsinchu Science Park in Hsinchu, Taiwan.
As of December 2021, TSMC provided 54 percent of the world’s semiconductor chips. TSMC supplies chips to companies such as Intel and Apple, so it’s no wonder it’s one of the largest chip manufacturers in the world. Globally, TSMC is the sixth most valuable company. In light of the chip supply crunch, TSMC has recorded record earnings in 2022 and is working on an expansion for 2023. Several semiconductor companies already outsource the production of their components to TSMC."
If the US and Taiwan are smart they will try to relocate the chip manufacturing somewhere else and rig the manufacturing in Taiwan to destruct if attacked by China.
Absolutely 👍
How wise to high light TSMC not in 2023 for their future is in the hand of Joe Biden, like Ukraine is right now.
Look good in the beginning 2021, but see it end sooner then later. For example 54% world Chips 2021, but not today, with TSMC factories in US unable to open and cut out of China future market by US, it's est. 14% of market share on the chips right now. Of that, it will have to share that 14% market with Japan, So. Korea and US OEM. Good luck.
Ask one self, would the KMT have avoid invading back onto the mainland over a company or people? I do not think so.
Lives are more precious than semiconductors I believe.
Nope. Morally yes, but not to those who control the other part. @@7hx89
I definitely understand the risk assessment as a component of deterrence. Unfortunately this assumes the CCP cares about cost or risk.
Chinese prefer to save rather than repay loans，These costs have already been paid
Some real technical analysis as far as the “4 possibities” went at the end 😂😂
Imagine having a conversation with Mearsheimer and saying "Elon Musk said..."
I don't see a single problem with that.
@@oWMatt I feel sorry for you
@@oWMattBecause Elon knows nothing about Geo politics.
@@fayguled900 Elon told Lex that Taiwan will be restored to the CCP by force or diplomacy, as if there's no other possible outcome. That is because Elon is now a pocket shill of the CCP for the sake of his Tesla factory in Shanghai.
Military invasion is an American mindset, not a Chinese one. Americans talking about China invading Taiwan are projecting what they would do, they simply can't comprehend that there could be any other solution than a military one. Also, Americans in all honesty, didn't give a toss about killing Middle Easterners, because they felt no empathy or connection to them. The situation with China and Taiwan is completely different.
The West only care about Uyghurs Muslims, because China is a Threat to the their Hegemony. The Crusades up until now didn't stop them from killing muslims.
China invaded Tibet and Hong Kong. China invaded SCS by building islands in Phillipines EZ.
The US helped Syria and Iraq push ISIL out of the region when they wrecked havoc in the region. Did China help fight ISIL? Nope. The Chinese don't give a sh*t about anyone but themself. They don't even care about their own people.
Do you honestly think America’s only understanding is to invade a country in a widespread military conflict. Those trillions in defense spending go into a LOT more than just planes, missiles and warships.
So the Chinese didn't invade Tibet or VIetnam...? The PLA didn't divert their Taiwan invasion force to Korea to fight the UN?
@@jarvy251 when's the last time, China went to War? 😂
I have USMC aviation training… I can try to pass the physical but I am down to work on base as a store clerk at the generic store/ gas station
Ah yes, Mearsheimer, the “Realist” who said that Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine and when it did, he blamed the West.
In another video he will tell us why Russia won't attack Ukraine.
You mean Nato?
But he’s warned against just that happening?
LOL
@@adamkallin5160Nope. He specifically said Russia was done during Bush. Then it was 2010. Then 2014 was the end. Mearsheimer's motivations are his political party losing Vietnam so badly. They've never gotten over it and it warps their brains.
3:00 - thank you for the honesty. It does not matter whether it's a democracy or not, this is about strategicness... now we are talking....
John did do his homework well. He didn't know how advanced the Chinese 075, 076 amphibious landing ships, 055 missile frigates and 003 aircraft carriers are.
PRC has no intermediate range surface to surface missiles that could reach Taiwan or commercial shipping and Taiwan strait is so wide. And the Professor is correct unlike central Europe you can't move armor divisions across the strait 😂🥸
When the western media talk about Taiwan as an important asset… critical link in the first island chain… to contain China strategically… before you go all technical and cold about this Taiwan and china issue, think about the people live on either side of the Taiwan stream, they are essentially the same people who speak the same language, listen to the same Jay Chaw song, watched the same movies, learn the same history lesson in schools, many have families on the other side of the water… so let’s hope there will never be a war between them… ever😢
How about we just mind our own f’n business?
What? People all over the world have received the greatest gift.
Can you imagine a US Marines led D-Day assault on Honshu if the A-bomb had not been dropped, the USSR had not entered the war and above all, had Japan had not surrendered?
It would have made the D-Day in Normandy seem like just another day at the beach.
Great analysis!
Thanks for more clarity and deeper thoughts on the issue. It seems like an abstract and elusive subject that concerns many.
Translation: "I'm really ignorant and assume that's the norm. I have no idea how anything actually happens."
I honestly think JM does not understand China. The main reason China today not moving on Taiwan is they view the people as their own, much like what most mainland people feel about Taiwan people. But if Taiwan declares independence PLA will have 200% support of the people to take Taiwan. You'll be surprised a civil war is likely break out first in Taiwan before anything else at that time. There are many Taiwanese do not agree to independance too, it's actually against Taiwan constitution which also regard mainland together with Taiwan as one country. Bottom line is to hope for peaceful unification, Indepenance = war even they have to scale himalayas to unify the country. Like a wise man once said, this is a core issue for China, very core actually.
american interest will prevent unification because they dont want china to have access to the pacific ocean
JM is american, he understand and see only in american mindset.
At least he didn't go into the nonsense of "because Taiwan makes semiconductors" as the reason why the US will defend Taiwan. Indeed, the US would love to take Taiwan's markets by manufacturing the semiconductors itself .
Taiwanese is Chinese not American. Why can't American grasp this simple fact? Also, Taiwanese is not going to fight the proxy war for the US. Stop talking about war that has not taken place. Stop spreading rumors of wars. We are tired of hearing about how wars gonna taken place in Taiwan. For 2 years, I have been hearing about this eminent war taking place in Taiwan. I am tired of hearing it. Do Americans like to hear that there's gonna be an eminent war in their country? I have come to realize the US MSM likes chaos.
Another point on JM lack of knowledfe of China is PLA has been training on the strategy of navy blockading Taiwan for a while now, a lot more intensely after the visit of a troubling old lady from far away. PLA weapons, first and foremost are very capable along their coast line and around Taiwan so breaking the blockade will not be easy. Even the Taiwanese know this, landing from west coast will unlikely be the PLA first move.
China's Air Superiority could be a game changer tho. They have hundreds of warplanes that can fly at any moment around Taiwan...Unless Taiwan have been really serious with its security upgrades recently, only then they can defend the country.
Mearshimer isn't completely wrong, the US for example have basically ditched the idea of developing a mass produced landing veichle just on the basis that they don't see an contested beach landing as feasible. What Mearshimer doesn't take into account is 21century missile technology and production in China have ramped so high that they could conceivably subdue Taiwan within a week.
John’s a smart guy, but I think he’s wrong about Taiwan.
I think all conventional thinking goes out the window on Taiwan, bc China sees it as a critical part of their ascension to shared Superpower with the US.
China will have to make a big move in order to show the US and the world that their ascension is unavoidable and imminent.
And once the US realizes how important it is to their Master Plan, they are going to be deeply divided over how to deal with it.
China may have water to contend with, but it’s still their neighbourhood.
The US would have an equal or greater challenge sending a significant infantry presence there.
Remember China’s army is far larger and it’s their home turf.
History is full of large-scale conflicts that didn’t make sense on paper - that were deemed unlikely or highly unlikely.
I hope I’m wrong here.
Time will tell.
The chinese army is far larger, but the only war China has won in the last 100 yeas was against China, and that was with the Japanese doing most of the work. The PLA has historically performed abysmally poorly, and we haven't even talked about actually getting those troop to a Taiwanese beach yet, which would likely be on the far side of the US, Japanese, Korean and Australian navies.
The question really is, will the Chinese delude themselves enough to make an attempt? This we don't know.
@@jarvy251What about the occupation of Tibet? Isn’t that a war they won? Or Vietnam for that matter…
This right here. All these war expert analyst are wrong on this.
China is the reason we're building the B21, NGAD and V280. They're all long distance vehicles meant to traverse vast bodies of water or even entire oceans without refueling. We also have the V22 right now, which has the farthest range of any rotorcraft. Apparently we're also working on stealthy refueling planes, so they can't easily shoot down our tankers to stop all of our other planes from flying.
@@jarvy251The very weak China pushed the US lead UN troops back to the 38 parallel during the Korean War, and helped Vietnam to win the Vietnam War against the US.
The containment strategy is very dangerous imo. Like a mechanically closed system is building up pressure it will inevitably end up exploding if the pressure is not released in time. If you want examples, look no further than Ukraine, Nato was doing the same thing in eastern Europe prior to the war...
You'd never think worder would be so significant still in military tactics.
We should all totally listen to him. After all he was completely right about Russia never attacking Ukraine. I mean it's 2023 and there is absolutely NO WAR in Europe. Brilliant man. Such sharp mind.
You had me for a second there. Remember to add the /s for sarcasm next time.
@@wefinishthisnow3883 hehe I will, thanks for the tip.
可見的唯一選項是堅定而快速的行動，其它的都不太可取
The fourth strategy is most likely but would involve stealth using multiple strategies. Biological, economic, EMP, disasters that appear to be natural.
Lex, mersheimer and Jeff two intellectuals with different views. Get them to meet and talk so that viewers can get to next level of understanding
But what if they tunneling like ants...?
In 1996 they announced a plan for high speed rail via a tunnel to Taiwan below the straits to Taipei...
They are brothers and sisters of the same country and race.
lol dumbest comment here.
Interviewer: You said that "A" won't happen because of 'B". Why "A" won't happen?
Guest: Because of B.
Amazing interaction!!
Given his previous predictions, that means they're invading within a year.
In addition to being an island it also the right size and shape to defend. Under 14,000 sq miles and with reserves called up their military is about 2 million strong. That is a huge concentration of soldiers in defensive positions for a per capital basis. That is your answer right there, there is absolutely no reason for China to attempt an invasion.
They already skip using the word invasion.
They claimed that they will have underwater subway to go directly to Taiwan.
It's a civil war within one country, so there is only unification between them, not invasion
That's a good point. These nations are constantly visiting each other for vacation and visiting family. Yes of course there will be a war. Look at the history. uSA only a dozen wars since 1981. China zero. And I hate the Communist Party. I just hate Westerners banging on war drums for no good reason even more.
One of the most interesting interviews Ive seen in regards of this sensitive topic.
You folks haven't discussed option 5 M.A.D.
It was mentioned that, for comparison, the English Channel posed a difficult enough problem for the invasion of the Allies into France during WW II. What wasn't mentioned is that in the months leading up to the Normandy invasion, the Allies had to make artificial reefs at certain places along the French coast, to be used by their landing vessels.
And as if THAT wasn't difficult enough, the reefs had to be made so that they would rise and fall with the tide. And as if THAT wasn't difficult enough, consider the fact that the Allies did all that knowing that the Germans knew all about the Allied plans to create artificial reefs, and to retaliate the Germans sent out their fighter planes to fire on and bomb the Allies' artificial reefs all the while they were being built.
So, only when you consider all this do you get a feeling for the monumental task that resulted in the Allied invasion on June 6th, 1944.
And that was across the English Channel, a body of water that was relatively calm compared to the Taiwan Strait which is difficult enough to cross most of the time through out the year.
8:00 Typical imperialist/colonialist mindset: win-win scenarios never cross these schemers' mind.
Fun use of buzz words.
I feel this is being discussed more outside Taiwan then in Taiwan itself.
I work and live here for many years and everytime I go abroad for a business trip or visit family I get questions about this issue which is the only time in my daily life I hear about this 😂
Seriously? Very interesting if true.
@@77dris what would I gain to not tell how it is haha ... its how it is...
we have our daily runs, bbq, beach days, hiking, outdoor concerts, we go to our jobs and we never talk about this, we are not into this issue.... (its all for politics)
because it's just US/West propaganda... they're doing all they can to increase China-haters, and unfortunately it's working.
are you all living in denial?
It sounds like complacency, and overconfidence from the locals that the CCP wouldn’t dare risk a global conflict over the island. But from a geopolitical perspective given the current circumstances, there is very little reason for the CCP to not try an invasion. Sure amphibious invasions are difficult, but China is more than capable of pulling it off. It ultimately depends on whether the US would act militarily to protect Taiwan if it happens.
During Normandy it helped that 60%-65% of Axis troops were trying to hold off the Soviet Union.
Shall we coin this the Peleliu Principle? That the land is not strategically important enough to justify the losses.
Elon has to make a statement like that. He has business interest in China. Business owners know the consequences of speaking against the "One China Policy"
Wow. Another youtube expert 😂
@@fauxbro1983 Are you looking for Jack Ma? so come to China.
Cover news reporter Meng Mei Ouyang Hongyu
On November 22, 2023, in response to recent rumors that Ma Yun sold huge shares, Jiang Fang, partner and chief talent officer, posted on Alibaba's internal network today that "Ma Yun did not sell a share", and Chairman Tsai Chongxin also followed the post that "as long as we have an open mind and innovative thinking, we will have the opportunity to create a different Ali."
Recently, the US stock exchange listed a long-term equity plan application disclosed by the Ma Yun family Trust and began on November 21, which sets a number of pre-conditions to choose whether to sell Alibaba shares. This information was understood to mean that Ma Yun would soon sell Alibaba shares, and even generated many malicious speculations and associations.
No he doesnt have to make a statement like that.Elon couldnt care less what china thinks of him,he is already beyond rich.He just believes it.His reasoning and the reasoning of John both make sense.
@@Soltrex-YHe wants Tesla to be the number one electric car in China. That would make him less dependent on western consumers. Right now because he became openly hostile to leftwing politics the consumers who are environmentally conscious and left wing think twice before investing in a Tesla.
@@fauxbro1983yes he just cashed out of his company for billions this week, and is living the high life. Poor him...
It's not just a top priority for China, it is the conclusion to a civil war. As the famous prelude to Romance of the Three Kingdoms reads 天下大勢．分久必合，合久必分。
未必 (not necessarily)
@@allenliu70I think it will happen. That's why China has been China for 3000 years. The unity is what makes it strong. That's why the West is so scared. The West would like China to disintegrate like Europe so it can be controlled one by one.
@@nsebast you know nothing about China, which had already disintegrated numerous times in history.
@@allenliu70 With people like you for sure.
@@nsebast I'm definitely not a fan of imperialism & expansionism, which is the biggest threat to world peace in our time.
Thank you! I’ve been saying this for months!! This guy makes more sense than all the other military analysts commenting on the Chinese threat.
Geography, transport and logistics are why a PLA invasion of Toawsn will not happen.
It's very simple how this will start:
1. China Naval blockades Taiwan
2. They'll use a "golf of tonkin" incident to start their war.
3. Outcome unknown
John Mearsheimer mentioned that it will harm US's image and reputation if US retreat from Taiwan. It has never occur to him that what the consequence will be if US is dragged into a war with China and got beaten, what image will US have? Back to his words, geography is very important, if he considers that it is hard for China to fight over his coast, how hard will it be for US to fight thousands miles away from his coast?
His point is not about being in a war with Taiwan being difficult for China, his point is taking over Taiwan being difficult for China. That’s what China wants to do. The US defending Taiwan is easier than China invading and taking over the country. The US would not want to “take over China”. Also, the discussion is not the US vs China. It is the US + Taiwan + Japan + S Korea + Australia + NATO. And as if that’s not enough, Vietnam also leans heavily towards the US and against China with the US accepting Vietnam’s claims in the South China Sea vs China’s. So all these countries control the waterways leading to China. China is aware of all this is which is why it is their obsession. They hate the vulnerability they are in.
@@John-hg3zd All the US allies are extremely vulnerable in the next war. In the worst case scenario of China versus US + allies, what will happen is a complete shutdown of shipping in the pacific because nobody will be willing to insure the ship, too vulnerable to the thousands of chinese, missiles, drone and what not. China has land routes, none of the US allies in the region does. S Korea for example will be completely sealed. Japan will probably see all energy prices up 10x.
@@John-hg3zd北约会不会为台湾同中国进行无限制氢弹战争？如果不敢，就闭嘴吧。中国近代100多跟备受西方入侵，首都几次被攻占。这是中华民族最大的耻辱，中国人用几千万人的死亡换取的二战的升级，获得台湾的回归，怎么可能再让他独立出去？不怕死的，就尽管来吧！
I think the bigger fear is how isolated China would be if they faced total sanction from the US and the West. If China wanted Taiwan there’s probably little the US could do to stop them, but the consequences would be more than China is willing to incur
@@BGeezy4sheezy exactly