What I learned forecasting Nintendo for a year
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- čas přidán 2. 04. 2024
- Around a year of Nintendo forecasting and now it's the moment of truth - how accurate was I? Unlike most videos where I'm deep-diving Nintendo, in this video I try to take you through my approach to forecasting and see how accurate I am and how to improve.
This might be one of the most ambitious channels I have ever discovered! Thats super cool!
same!
Data driven youtube channels are rare, especially for ones that are not education based.
Good work man
I was a bit curious about why you labeled your predictions with percentages instead of just saying "likely" or "unlikely", so this was a nice video to help put that into perspective. Nice to see you keep track of and catalog your own forecasts in this manner.
Nintendo Fivecast 🔥🔥🔥
I think your channel is filling a unique and valuable niche (Nintendo analysis from a more mathematical and financial perspective).
Most of the business discussion surrounding Nintendo fixates on its stock price, and most of the games/prediction stuff is a little more casual and based on rumors/gut instinct. The former lacks focus on the part of the company most people really care about (the games) and the latter sacrifices accuracy for entertainment value, losing its appeal over time.
You’ve merged these 2 dynamics, and I believe it will result in the most accurate predictions channel for Nintendo on CZcams. You will grow a lot from here!
This channel is an absolute gem
So good finally getting a proper Nintendo forecast channel
i really like this channel! i only found it recently but i really enjoy the analytical approach you take as opposed to other channels relying purely on rumours and best-guesses. because while I still enjoy that kind of content, there’s been a definite lack of more business oriented content like you provide here!
Crazy that out of your 500k views, 300k came in the last month. Enjoy the ride! Happy to see a channel like this gain traction
Even crazier is that it took just under a year to get to 1000 subs and just under a day to get to 2000. That's CZcams for you!!
Huh, you only have 7k subs?
I figured from your content being actually researched and well portrayed you were far bigger, there's a lot of interesting stuff I wouldn't have considered you dig up. The work you put in is impressive.
Ikr
I think he’s gonna get bigger over time! He’s filling a valuable niche.
It’s such a shame this channel is so small. The effort is so high quality
Arlo's end of year videos also usefully clearly split his wish list from his actual predictions when a lot of channels seem to have both mixed together so it's sometimes hard to tell if they mean they want something to happen or if they expect something to happen. Your percentages also help do that.
My favourite new channel to come across! Its so refreshing to have someone who actually researches what they put out in a sea of low effort click bait nonsense. My only criticism is that id love for you to put some bar graphs together with the stats youre talking about rather than game footage as sometimes its quite hard to hold all the different percentages in mind while being distracted by flashy platinum action games, just for even a few key moments would go a long way!
Ok…that honesty and accountability earned a sub! Nice work. Looking forward to more content from you.
Been watching and enjoying this channel for a while! I've been considering giving this feedback for as long as I've been watching, but this video seems like a good time to do it.
It took me a while to realise that the percentages you give are just one of 5 broad bins - I only noticed that pattern a few weeks ago. In my opinion, by giving percentages it gives the impression of you attempting to be more precise than you actually mean. For that reason, for a while I thought the whole percentage thing was quite silly, because it seemed to me that you were being way too precise for what is ultimately just educated guesses. It actually kinda made me view the channel a little less seriously, because I just thought that it was naive to be so precise for something so inherently nonquantitative.
But that impression is wrong! When I realised what you were actually doing, the concept of the channel clicked for me much better. In order to not give that impression, I think it might be better to use qualitative measures, the descriptions you give at the start of the video, more often over the percentages. In videos you can occasionally remind viewers what number the qualitative descriptions correspond to, and then use those numbers for videos like this. Percentages imply high precision, whereas qualitative descriptions correctly convey what you're actually doing in the channel with the 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, 90%.
But all that said, I think what you do in this channel is great, and you clearly have been successful in your predictions for this first year! Hopefully this feedback comes across as constructive rather than overly critical.
All well-meaning feedback is very much appreciated - thank you! I started out explaining both the likelihood and the percentage but I worried without the percentages they were open to misunderstanding and/or it felt like it would drag the pace of the video down sometimes. I'm looking into some graphics to help make the bands clearer although I want something that gets the message across but doesn't appear cluttered. Might take some experimenting!
I am stunned at your subs! Very happy to be here at the start! Thanks for the insightful articulate videos 👌🏻
Thank you!
I appreciate the Arlo shoutout. He is one of the few Nintendo CZcams prediction makers that make bananas predictions that seem more fun and less like he is an authority on the matter
I love Arlo. He's so funny and engaging that even his product placements are must-watch.
Love the smart goals and KPIs you benchmark yourself too. Learning to do that alot for my day job.
I genuinely love your channel. So good!
Thank you so much!
Amazing to see such success with your predictions, great work!
Watching these always make me feel like a business mogul 🎩🧐
this channel is awesome - i really like hearing the more business focused/grounded reasoning behind the games industry explained in such an entertaining way! can't wait for another year to come, with a 90% likelyhood of even longer success for you I predict!
Impressive results so far!
Looking forward to yearly forecast checking reviews!
lol I literally just finished your video from two days ago and this pops up now
This channel is absolutely fantastic, so interesting hearing research and data-driven deep dives into this fascinating company. Keep up the good work!!
Thank you!
Keep it up. Great channel!
One of my new fav channels
Love your content! Given your perspectives and desire to be well researched, I would love a video or videos on your forecast for Nintendo's EDP teams. (I myself really want to know what EDP 9 is up to)
Thank you! I've got a few videos touching on the internal EPD teams - a video on EPD 7 from last year ("The Nintendo internal dev team missing since 2015") and I looked at EPD5's development capacities ("Animal Crossing and Splatoon devs split"). An EPD 9 one is coming soonish - it's scripted and will be in the next set I record.
My statistics teacher would’ve loved you. Great vid! Love the self accountability!
Great video! Love the approach of reviewing your forecasts, this video would have been even more powerful with some visualizations on screen though, I found it a bit hard to keep track as you were talking through the results
Yes, good point. That's one of the things I'll be looking at developing going forward. Thanks for the feedback.
It would be awesome if you can visualize what you are talking about in this video for us to keep track. Just doodling as you speak is enough m, no need for anything fancy.. yet 😅
Really like your channel! I was surprised that you only have 7k subs then I realized I am not subscribed. Changed that instantly
you provide a sensible and business like analysis to your forecast which is more than 99% of nintendo content creators everywhere.
Wow. Those are actually pretty accurate prediction percentages. That’s a sub right there
I haven’t finished the video yet - about 65% through :P - but I wanted to get this thought out.
I commented a while back that I thoroughly enjoyed your analysis and delivery, that I’d like to see you keep this channel up because you’ve a talent and the voice for it.
I’ve been following Nintendo for decades, watching their business evolve and adapt, trying to predict what they’d do...
After all that time I stumbled on your channel and thought “this fella knows his shit…” and subbed after watching two videos. I’m happy with my decision so far!
I’m not surprised at all that you came out so accurate in your predictions. You seem to have identified - and now deeply respect - how Nintendo’s culture of creativity is a lifeblood of the business both on the screen and off; financially and artistically.
This is why Nintendo has such hardcore fans. It isn’t just Mario or Zelda, Pokemon or Metroid; *it’s how they survive and remain on top doing it*.
I always admire your CZcams channel
Thank you!
@@nintendoforecast My pleasure
PLEASE do a forecast in regards to the potential of Bandai working on a Kid Icarus Uprising remaster and if its either coming to the base Switch or the next console, I'd love to hear your percentage on that as well as the background information surrounding it!
Great idea. Might be a while as I've got quite a few things I'm researching at present but will definitely look into this one.
you are doing seriously amazing stuff with this concept
i think your channel with take off soon
Waiting for this channel to blow up
Nintendo is so unpredictable that even the most obvious, 100% happening events are only 70% likely.
I respect your dedication to predicting Nintendo but they are unpredictable so you can’t blame yourself too much if you miss a few things lol.
Making predictions is fun and I’m excited to see what happens
Perhaps a wild prediction video you can do in the future is speculate on what company or studio Nintendo will collaborate with for their next consoles launch window. Nintendo has a history of teaming up with outside devs both big and small to help jumpstart the new library of games their console would need. I'm sure there are lots of fun %10 forecasts hidden in there.
That's an intriguing one. Quite research-intensive - might be better as a few videos focusing on different collaborators. Great suggestion though - thank you!
You're holding yourself to business analyst standards in a space where everyone else has no regard for any standards whatsoever. Definitely a channel worth watching. 🫡
You are right, he’s doing amazing!
Fr im so tired of all these nintendo channels using baseless rumors and clickbait , glad we have a channel like this for more realistic conversations
“worth subscribing.” fits better
Sometimes these CZcamsrs who make otherwise good content will make predictions that are like… fanfiction??
Or like “this happened last time so it’s going to happen this way forever” or even “this has to be this way (no further analysis needed)”
I love your content ❤
Thank you!
I didn’t know you had so many videos up to this point. I’ve been listening to just about every video since “Delaying Switch 2 avoided this”, the first video of your channel that I and many others watched. Considering the type of videos you make, while I’d not doubt that many of your past videos would still be well worth watching, I’m not sure that would be readily apparent to new viewers as the premise of giving a forecast gives a time-limited rather than timeless appearance.
I don’t think many including myself would take issue with you restating things from past videos in newer ones so as to increase the reach of ideas you presented. If that’s not something that sits well with you or you have sufficient video ideas already, then videos such as this one are great for contextualizing and centralizing your content.
Good point. I need to figure out a way to balance conveying what I'm trying to do but also not slowing the video down (and being repetitious for returning viewers). I'll give this some thought. Thanks for the comment.
@@nintendoforecast You're welcome. I hope for your continued success.
I really have a lot of respect for the content you make. It's inspiring. Is there anyway I can get ahold of you? If you have time and we can make it work, I would love to get you on a podcast sometime so we can talk about this art of forecasting and accountability to the forecasts.
Thank you! I've just dropped you an email.
What’s the number for Nintendo on particularly creating a custom version of achievements? And I’m not talking about the badge system. Or the gold and platinum coins.
I almost feel like this video is responding to my comment on your forecast video 😅
I remember saying it seemed hopeful that you thought there was a 70% - 90% chance we get new Pokémon, Mario & Zelda games all by the end of year.
Doubt it was intended that way, but I feel called out anyway 😂. You're just more optimistic than me, I feel Switch is winding down and am only expecting the bare minimum.
Haha, no calling out intended - this video was actually finished and uploaded before that one launched. I'm mostly looking at prior years as my benchmark. Based on my numbers it's closer to 56% we get all three and that could include, I dunno, a Dr Mario World port. We'll see I guess.
Keep the forecasts coming atleast 90% of the time 😊
I agree about the non chalent 90% and 10% predictions.
I never thought about why weathermen are stereotypically wrong all the time before finding your channel. Now I know that I didn't know what those numbers meant.
How many percents for a new F zero games? And for a phisical game of f zero 99? Thanks
I'll look at forecasting F-Zero at some point - wouldn't like to give a number without looking into it a bit more. A physical F-Zero 99 is an interesting concept. I guess they did it with Tetris 99. Hmm.
@@nintendoforecast i did not find any video in ur chanel about f-zero :(
Statistically, if something is 70% likely to happen, it’s not unreasonable for it to be observed every time in such small samples. Making too big of changes based on such little data might actually hurt you more in the future. Cool video though
Yes, that's a good point.
Data!
"What I learned forecasting Nintendo for a year"
We'll never get a new Custom Robo
So what you learned is...the hardest company to predict is...hard to predict lol. Which is great, because it would suck all the joy out of the company (and the joy in guessing - which let's face it, is all this is!) :)
This guy is more reliable than Jeff grub and Nate the hate combined
That's not difficult.
@@NuiYabuko you couldn’t do it
I normally hate predictions and forecasting because... I honestly don't know, but I have hated them. It turns out, all that has to happen was to watch predictions and forecasting about game development business... who would've thought?
Can you just tell me what our chances of a new Star Fox are?
On gut instinct, depends what and when. Any given year, 10% max. Over the next 10 years, probably at least 50%; if you expand the remit to include tie-ins, remasters and spin-offs surely 90%. At some point I'll deep dive Star Fox and maybe I can say more then.
your sample sizes are too low. don't change anything at this point, except MORE
It would've been much easier to follow this video with graphics to accompany what you're explaining, just a suggestion
Yes - will look at this for future. Thanks for the feedback
You picked the right theme for your channel.
Nintendo at their root is STILL a Playing Card Company & they act like Card Players.
They hold their cards close to chest never revealing their hand prematurely.
They do their best to not give any tells keeping up a strong poker face.
And they like to come out of nowhere slapping the table with a trump card for the element of surprise.
Not to mention their penchant for card tricks complete with sleight of hand.
So trying to forecast Nintendo's moves will ALWAYS be a fascinating topic to drive interest.
Your channel will always get views because of Nintendo's cagey nature.
I have been a fan of Nintendo since 1981 with Donkey Kong Arcade.
And being a fan so long you come to learn a few things about how the company generally operates.
What I have found is that Nintendo HATES to be figured out. They HATE to be too predictable.
So if they feel the fans are onto them too much & can predict their next moves too much, they'll switch it up just to keep that unpredictability intact. You can almost hear them saying:
*"You think you know everything, do ya? HA! YOU KNOW NOTHING!"*
That's what's going on in 2024 right now. People were expecting their usual 1st half announcements at a February Direct & Nintendo flipped the script on them a little bit giving a Partner Showcase & later a Pokémon Presents.
Stuff you thought would be shown in a Nintendo Direct, they just unceremoniously release to Twitter one by one.
They have ruined the Switch 2 predictors by stonewalling their expected & rumored March 2024 reveal.
People are now getting antsy not knowing what Nintendo is going to do for 2024 & 2025.
And that's just the way they like it. They like to swerve even their most knowledgeable fans who know their usual routines.
NOBODY expected Shigeru Miyamoto coming out on that Mario Day video & dropping news about the next Mario Movie!
We thought it would be just another usual Mario Day video highlighting the day & we get a baby Direct out of it!
They want us in the dark right now. THEY want to control the element of suspense & surprise.
That's why I knew Switch 2 was not being announced in 2024 much less released.
I know enough about them to get that one right. So know all of this & expect your channel to gain subscribers this year.
Super Unpredictable Nintendo is fuel for this channel & you will receive the benefits.
Great post - I think you're spot on.
They definitely don't switch things up to be unpredictable. What serious business would operate like that? You can guess when a Direct will happen and could so for years. The issue is, many supposed fans don't look at Nintendo as Nintendo, they want them to be MS or especially Sony. I wanted them to try and make a family-friendly shooter and there they were with Splatoon. Gamers who want their main studios to make an Uncharted clone will likely be disappointed, though.
We NEED Fire Emblem 4 remake!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also I don't know your feelings on rumors, but pyoro and midori are two prominent nintendo and sega leakers with 100% track records, they have gotten every single thing they predicted right without slipping up once.
I like rumours fine although I kind of like when Nintendo get to keep some surprises.
Then Nintendo next console is an empty bucket with a dead fish with motion controls and this entire channel was a waste.
I hold a decent chunk of Nintendo shares. Thank you for your hard work 🫡
your sample sizes are too low. don't change anything at this point, except MORE