UNDERSTANDING SIERA: The MLB's Most Accurate Pitching Stat
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- čas přidán 10. 11. 2020
- In a previous video, we called FIP the MLB’s BEST pitching statistic - but today we are going to challenge that statement by diving into SIERA. This stat is DEFINITELY the most accurate pitching statistic out there, and in this video we are going to cover what this stat is, how it is calculated, and why you should care.
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Further Reading:
Fangraphs - library.fangraphs.com/pitchin...
MLB.com - m.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-st...
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Trying to put the SIERA formula in excel and I run into a problem, its the +/- portion. Can you explain that or how to successfully get the formula in excel?
Great question, Corey!
The +/- is simply saying that if your (GB-FB-PU) ends up negative, you want to take the absolute value of that so it always displays a positive number.
(For example, if you have 15 GB, 10 FB and 10 PU, you would have 15-10-10 which would be -5. You want to keep all of the parts of this equation positive otherwise your end product will display as negative.)
Here’s a link to an article on BP explaining just that: legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=SIERA
As for how to do that in excel, adding the formula ABS() around that portion of the equation should do the job! Thanks for the comment!
Maybe it's just me, but I feel like having a "plus OR minus" in the middle of an equation like this makes the entire thing feel kind of... arbitrary? It very much implies that the stats involved in that part of the equation don't really matter that much, or at least don't have a preferential treatment in the equation, because you can get to the same result (via absolute value) whichever is bigger. I'm not a huge fan of stats that feel like they're manipulating the numbers to get within a certain range, rather than actually organically getting there
ERA is another useful stat that can be used in excel for sabermatrics: bestbaseballreviews.com/what-is-era-in-baseball/
@@PhantomofDB I believe the +/- work to show how far from zero since the absolute value is used. Bigger number is probably bad whether positive or negative and smaller number is good.
Just wanted to know how the adjusted formula would look like if i replace the +/- with abs
Have always felt disconnected from pitching, and thus, felt I was missing half the game.
Good video! Had watched the one on FIP and you strengthened my respect for the metric. But this "skills interactive--" is something else! It almost reminded me of a series of runs created formulae chained together. I'm glad someone else gathers the data and calculates the values!
You are making me more comfortable with these mind-boggling metrics because you routinely include a rating chart. I've seen Fangraphs do it previously, but you take it to the next level for me. Thanks for your excellent work!
Thanks for the awesome feedback, Spencer! I do my best to breakdown the more complex aspects of the game in a more simple fashion. Thanks for watching!
appreciate your videos!
Hey there! I was wondering what would be the best stat to evaluate a team’s overall pitching? SIERA, ERA, FIP OR XFIP?
This will help me out handicapping games better
What I don’t get is when you say strikeouts are good for pitchers and walks aren’t that bad but on the offensive side you hear analytical heads tell you strikeouts aren’t bad and walks are great
On your stats you always use a scale similar to Era, OBP,…etc. Would there be a situation where distribution might work better? Top 5% would be great, 50 percentile would be average & bottom 5% are bad or would that be a situation like OPS+ or ERA+ that might work to compare especially across seasons?
What about doing a video on DRA?
What’s the general rule for how many games you should account for?
I'd recommend putting the first 1:30 min of the video that effectively just acts as advertisement for the channel at the end of the video. That way people who liked the content can find more, and you're less offputting to people who just want the answer to the question in the title. If I've never seen a video of yours I care more about what SIERA is than your personal video content extended universe.
Sorry if this sounds mean I don't mean to hate, but I think the video quality would be improved easily by starting with the content and then telling them where to get more after, but that's just my opinion, you're the one with 10k+ subs :P
Is Siera the best stat when evaluating relievers? I've heard RE24 is the best stat there is for relievers.
Is Siera the best stat to evaluate relievers also?
So is it good if I get SIERA, FIP, xFIP, ERA+ and IP to judge a pitchers job?
Exactly! An even mix of all of that information is the BEST way to evaluate pitchers. One stat is good, but a few quality advanced stats is better. Thanks for the comment!
among qualified pitchers since 2002
1. 2014 kershaw 2.09
2. 2002 schilling 2.18
3. 2015 kershaw 2.24
4. 2002 johnson 2.40
5. 2002 martinez 2.43
6. 2014 felix hernandez 2.50
7. 2020 bieber 2.52
8. 2015 sale 2.52
9. 2014 sale 2.56
10. 2017 sale 2.58
11. 2004 johnson 2.61
12. 2004 kluber 2.61
13. 2019 cole 2.62
14. 2015 scherzer 2.63
15. 2018 verlander 2.63
16. 2013 harvey 2.63
17. 2014 strasburg 2.64
18. 2011 greinke 2.65
19. 2003 schilling 2.67
20. 2017 kluber 2.68
interesting that 2009 greinke, one of the most dominant season i've ever seen, is only the 77th lowest (SIERA 3.04).
Thanks for the awesome comment here! Like any stat, referencing this one across multiple different stats is going to give you the best idea of a pitchers output. It’s hard to argue that the top 10 on this list weren’t some of the most dominant seasons by pitchers in the last 20 years.
Of course, Grienke’s 2009 season was a great one - but that just goes to show how many great years pitchers have had as well. Thanks for the comment!
I have seen calulators for fip and xfip do you know of a calulator for siera?
Looking into it briefly I haven’t been able to find anything either, perhaps I’ll see if someone I know has the capability to make one. Thanks for the comment!
I found one on fangraphs
Learning about SIERA while sipping on some Sierra Mist 😂
No better way to do it! Thanks for the comment!
i’m stuck w starry i hate 2024
Real noobie question here. Where can I see a pitchers SIERA? I can't seem to find it on fangraphs
Great question! On Fangraphs you’ll have to tab over to the ‘advanced’ table to see SIERA. I’ve linked the 2019 leaderboards that should take you to that page to browse through on your own.
www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=21,a
@@SimpleSabermetrics thanks man. I was looking at a specific pitcher on chrome on my mobile phone, found it eventually under "batted ball". I'm still relatively new to baseball, 2 years, starting the learning about sabermetrics part of fandom now 😂 You're channel is great 👍
Glad you found it! Appreciate the kind words on the channel - keep on learning 👊🏻
At 2:10 you say there is NO chance for a hitter to get on after striking out. This is technically untrue, as a batter can steal first after a strikeout if the catcher drops the ball. I am assuming you did not mention this because the rate at which a strikeout results in a stolen base is so small that it is statistically insignificant and is therefore not included in the equation. If I am mistaken, please let me know!
I think since it is reflective of the defense than it would not be taken into consideration for these stats
1st timer here; So Im Guessing Greg maddux would have been Great with this ...?
Yes he forced a lot of ground balls and SIERA loves that