WOBA IS THE MLB's BEST OFFENSIVE STAT: Here's Why
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- čas přidán 17. 03. 2020
- What is the best overall offensive production statistic out there today? In my opinion, wOBA holds the gold medal. This all-encompassing offensive statistic gives you the best idea of how a guy is performaning at the plate in all aspects of the game. What is wOBA, how is it calculated, and how can it be applied throughout all levels of baseball? All of those questions and more are answered in today’s video!
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More on wOBA:
Fangraphs Deginition - library.fangraphs.com/offense...
Fangraph’s Weights - www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?t...
Charlie Youngs Dashboard - sabermetrics.cs.illinois.edu/
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Heads-Up Baseball : Playing the Game One Pitch at a Time - amzn.to/2SIJNyK - Sport
just found your channel! I have already fallen in love!! keep up the great content
Thanks for the comment, Samuel! Glad you enjoy the videos - thanks for watching 👍🏻
Great video and I love the shout-out to Charlie!
Thanks Bo! Gotta give credit where credit is due!
Now this statistic makes more sense to me. I think it helps that once you have the proper weights for a particular year you can actually calculate the stat yourself. Not sure that the different weights for UBB and HBP makes sense, but you have already addressed that issue in the comments below. I am enjoying your excellent presentations. Keep this up and you may even convert me! lol
Glad you’ve been enjoying the videos, Bob! I’ll keep doing my best to get you on our side 👍🏻
Loved the video and I wanted to ask a question for stats on hitters. So I do dfs on my own time and would you say wOBA is the best stat when to pick players or which stats should I look at when picking a batter. Thank you and appreciate if you respond back.
Awesome, thank you!
Excellent way of breaking down wOBA! Typically, I used this stat over others when comparing hitters. I don't really understand xwOBA though? Any chance you can explain what the differences are?
The difference with any stat that has ‘x’ before the original statistic is that it’s measuring expected performance compared to actual performance. xwOBA takes into account batted ball data and sprint speed to estimate what should happen on a play rather than using the result (Single, double, triple, etc.). I think this is something I could definitely make a video on in the future. Thanks for the awesome comment!
@simplesabermetrics where are you?! Your videos are some of my favorite on YT, baseball or otherwise
Awesome. When it comes to stats like WOBA+ What would you recommend for younger ages that play little league, intermediate or select ball where you don’t have access to stats outside of your team?
Good video and good argument for using WOBA to evaluate offensive prowess. Not a criticism, but I heard you say "weighted" but I didn't hear your say "weighted on-base average." I'm an old-timer, and although the term looked familiar, I had forgotten what it stood for.
I'll rewatch the video and see if I missed the breakdown of the acronym: I likely did.
Wow! Watched back through and realized I never actually broke down what the acronym stands for. I believe I do that in nearly every other statistics video... critical oversight on my end. Thanks for the comment!
I find it interesting that HPB is weighted differently than UBB, in fact it has a higher weighting to it. This seems to imply that getting hit by a pitch is a skill, and one that is more valuable than good plate discipline. I understand that the regression is what sets these weights (not necessarily how those are calculated, but thats OK), just saying that theoretically that distinction doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Also, intentional walks are not considered which is a grey area to me. If you're a great hitter, you're going to get walked intentionally in higher leverage situations because you're a good hitter. Look at Bonds' 2004.
On the other hand, in high leverage situations with no one on first base and 0 or 1 outs almost anyone is going to get the intentional walk.
I get that the intentional walk is going away with the best hitter in baseball only getting 14 free bases and the Astros intentionally walking 0 batters last year, but this stat can be applied to any year in baseball history and if no one is getting intentionally walked that will essentially just cancel itself out of the equation.
Anyway getting off my soapbox... awesome video! Looking forward to more, these are really great for someone who has already been interested in sebermetrics like myself.
Thanks for the comment, Benjamin! You hit on some very good points here, it is interesting that the weight for HBP is greater than UBB. My guess is that the difference is because there are far fewer HBP than UBB, but it also could be for the fact that a HBP takes 1 pitch to get on base and UBB takes 4. Both of those ideas are speculation, but I don't believe they are intended to measure the difference in skill of each of those outcomes.
Next, talking about IBB you are correct in the sense that great hitters (mostly outliers) may be IBB more than others. However, intentionally walking someone may also be purely out of the situation (such as a runner on 2B with 1 out to produce a double play opportunity). In the situational application of this rule, there is no skill required by the batter which is why I believe it is not included in this calculation.
Love the comment man, these are the types of comments I always love to see on the channel. Feel free to challenge any other ideas across the channel as well!
Good video
do you know how does the factors are obtained? i can't find the answer, everyone just says that is "x", i see that every year it's very similar, but yeah, i'd like to know haha, great video!
Good question - the weights for each of the individual factors is found by using linear weights (article explaining more on this here - library.fangraphs.com/principles/linear-weights/).
Hopefully that article can help answer your question! Thanks for the comment.
0:19 “let’s jump into it”
“…before we jump into it”
I just saw the woba formula briefly. It doesn't take into account rbis or other production values?
Great video, can anyone help with answering this question...
looking at the formula is the;
.690 the UBB average for all teams in a season that should be multiplied times the UBB of an individual player?
.719 the HBP average for all teams in a season that should be multiplied times the HBP of an individual player?
1.217 the UBB average for all teams in a season that should be multiplied times the 1B of an individual player?
In the denominator is AB for the player or for all teams for the year or only for the player that’s being observed?
Great question, Josh! To answer your first 3, it depends on what you’d like to calculate.
If you’re looking to calculate an individual players output, you input their numbers for these categories. If you’re looking for a team or a leagues output input their numbers.
If you input the entire seasons data, you’ll find what this years average wOBA would be.
Same thing goes for AB’s, if you’re looking to analyze on hitter - put in their AB’s. If you want a leagues, put the leagues!
Hopefully that clears things up. Thanks for the comment!
Is there any way to measure park factors or weather conditions in a hitting stat like woba for the homerun aspect of it. The same way it’s used with pitchers in their stats
Great question man - yes, there are some people who calculate a wOBA+ (Any time you see a +/- you can assume that means it’s park adjusted). However, personally I see wRC+ (weighted runs created) and ERA- as a better indicator of adjusted success utilizing park factor. I’ll be doing a video on those subjects in the future. Thanks for the comment!
Whats the next step after WOBA? Like if you have a guy on third, and you have a guy who cant get on base worth a damn, but hits a lot of home runs, how do you weigh that against the likelier hit, like a bunt, and if this is the game winning run, how would that then be weighted in the next stat up?
So if a pitcher woba is .400 is that a good thing or a bad thing for the batters at bat? If that make snese
I always come back to this video whenever I think hard enough about wOBA or even stats like FIP where they’re scaled with some sort of constant. Perhaps I simply don’t have a great understanding of constants in statistics, but to me it only makes a number more difficult to understand than less. In the case of wOBA, why is it being ‘scaled’ to a number we better understand? It seems like the perfect value of “weighted runs/PA” was calculated but then completely made irrelevant by this constant. I Guess i struggle to understand a fraction’s true and full value if there’s no clear and simple unit defined. I see and appreciate the value of making a number that accounts for all PAs and their results, but maybe I’m just looking for a different stat, like wRC
Perhaps I shouldn’t saying that adding constants makes wOBA “irrelevant”, that isn’t totally fair. But it does seem to muddy waters that seemed clear enough to me.
You should make more videos bro
Can high spin rate be effective in the bottom of the zone?
It definitely can be, check out my video on VAA that can help explain why:
m.czcams.com/video/rPUx8mAMgI0/video.html
We always get better ways to appreciate and know players, but the upper echelons always seem to ignore them.
That’s definitely something that has begun to change over time. Many organizations are investing in people with advanced knowledge about these types of statistics.
Thanks for the comment!
It’s wild there was a time people thought Yelich was a better hitter than Bryce Harper
Whats your background?
Spent 4 years working for the baseball team at the University of Iowa as an undergrad, did some summer internships scouting a college summer league, and working for a few pro orgs, and now I’m the Director of Player Development at Penn State.
Thanks for the comment man!
@@SimpleSabermetrics very cool
Deeper than rap
Why is getting hit by a pitch better than a walk it’s the same thing
This vid never says what WOBA stands for. I'm guessing here: Weighted on-base average? What?
I still don't understand why OBP is calculated over AB + BB + HBP + SF and not over PA.
You know, this is a great point. Perhaps it’s spelled out that way in case plate appearance isn’t an option I’m the dataset you’re using?
My first thought was maybe catchers interference or something weird doesn’t count as a plate appearance but it does so I’m not really sure why it isn’t just simplified to be over PA.
Thanks for the comment!
@@SimpleSabermetrics Yea, it's possible OBA was created before plate appearances were even a thing. Also the amount of defenders interference and sacrifice hits are so miniscule that essentially (AB+BB+HBP+SF) = PA. Sacrifice hits and defenders interference are the only things that differentiate the two.
Poor Acuna getting placed into the the "Above Average" slot (.340) despite having wOBA's of .388 and .369 during the two seasons before this video was made.
You always hate to see that! Give him another year and he will be back on top of these leaderboards!
How is a HBP more than a walk. And everyone trashes BA, yet this stat puts more weight on a single than a walk, even though each is 1b
I’m with you on the first point- a hit-by-pitch and a walk are the same thing. But a single is identical to a walk only if the bases are empty. If there are baserunners present, a single is better than a walk. If first base is open and you have runner(s) on second and/or third, a walk will not advance those runners but a single will. Sometimes a runner is able to advance two bases on a single (i.e. going from first to third, or from second to home), unlike walks which can never advance a runner more than one base.
Ah, I am disappointed, I really wanted to know which players you'd choose as examples for "average", "below average" and "poor"!
I don’t know what he’s afraid of. Does he think that if he calls out a player as a poor hitter, they’re going to attack him with a baseball bat? They’d probably miss.