Why Chelsea probably won't win the league
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- čas přidán 21. 12. 2021
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Mark Carey from The Athletic is stuck inside a Scattergram. He joins JJ Bull to discuss which teams in the Premier League take the most shots, and which team faces the most shots.
Which teams have a resilient defence? Which teams are all attack? Can you tell the best teams just by looking at the graph?
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Music sourced from epidemicsound.com
Additional footage sourced from freestockfootagearchive.com
#FootballData - Sport
Video Request: Please can we have a video where Joe and JJ watch a match with eye tracking tech? I'd love to see the differences (expecting Joe's eyes to follow the ball a lot more, with JJ looking at the shapes of the teams more).
very good idea
Joe's eyes are going to track a random fan with a funny haircut
@@samuelschonenberger Me too
that idea is Insane @Tifo yall gotta do this
They prob wont be able to because of copyrights though
The fact that they're conceding high quality chances, but still haven't conceded many goals shows what a good signing Menndy has been.
or teams haven’t taken their chances
@@laurent4819 definitely not a bad point.
To be clear I actually really dislike Chelsea as a Spurs fan, but I think Menndy has done very well this season, plus they didn't pay too much (and they aren't paying him that much).
He might not be world class, but his adaptation to the prem has been impressive.
@@LukeDwornikComedy can't fault anything said.
Agree: A goal-keeper with "presence" really helps teams eg Kaspar Scheimachal is another one for Leicester.
With that said, I think their defence will hold: They're very disciplined. I think their offence has been lucky and they'll drop points from lack of goals (compared to Liverpool and ManC). Not enough Wins (3pts).
@@laurent4819 Mendy wasn't as great as he was made out to be last season. He was good - though anything was an improvement over a worst ever goalkeeping season since the Premier League began with Kepa - but unspectacular, as the defence allowed few on target shots. Actually Chelsea under Lampard had the second best defence in the league too in 19/20 but Kepa was the difference. This season Mendy actually had insane save success vs on target shots while more chances were allowed before the defence became shaky, and at this point he still has an 84% success rate. That is brilliant when you consider how other teams are allowed to threaten the defensive third, as they always look quite convincing despite getting less spells of possession to work with. For comparison Mendy had over 90% saves vs on target shots in the Champions League last season, which is on par with Čech's record breaking Premier League form in 06/07, and higher than de Gea's best save ratio from any season.
His PSxG (post-shot expected goals) is a tiny bit (3%) higher meaning he faces better shots. Meanwhile his PSxG+/- (expected goals minus goals conceded) was exactly zero last season meaning he was performing as expected, yet this season it's positive, meaning *he's expected to concede more goals and faces more high quality shots and yet he saves more of them* not just saving more shots faced in general.
About Chelsea, this was obvious since late September. Team was over-performing xGA by a significant amount.
By the Leicester game it seemed Tuchel had started fixing it but then the injuries started,
I agree, important personal missing hasn’t helped the situation. I had actually accelerated it in a way. But I trust that Tuchel will adapt, I hope the board have the same trust. I baring Lampard, I have always felt it was the players that let the manager down.
Liverpool had no chance winning lst year when they got hit by a rash of injuries, the team that won the champions league had lante and Chillwell in it, those two being out for major periods have impacted all these statistics.
Ironically and not something mentioned in this video, is that since Chelsea started to go into bad form, they actually had a better xG score compare to the actual score line, showing how much they have been impacted by the injuries.
A lot of chances wasted and a lot of bad goals conceded
For anyone that goes to the games regularly this was evident. Our attack isn't functioning correctly, just aimless crosses into the box when we have no target man other than Havertz or Lukaku whom have been out with injury/covid for a while. We don't play many lateral passes or balls in behind the defensive line for our pacey forwards.
the problem is we are lacking creativeness in the center midfield. All the attacking buildups come from the wings. But now ben chilwell is currently injured, james has to do his work double. Alonso is not performing well right now so james is alone doing both attacking and defending, sometimes you could see in the match that he could not run back to defend the counter attack because he was exhausted from attack. And you could see that most of the goals that we conceded recently coming from the wings. Wing is now chelsea's weakness, not strength like it used to.
@@KhanhNguyen-jo3jv yeah our centre mid lacks creativity without kovacic. jorginho for me has been disappointing this season.
@@ross8525 guess we have to wait till the next season. Cause our style of playing have to change, players are too programmatic sometimes.
@@ross8525 jorgi has been playing injured + exhausted and we look much worse without him than with him
What is needed is a very good target man. So Lukaku being injured isn't helpful at all. I think they should have a front 2. Lukaku, being a good target man and dropping back to lay passes to people around him. And havertz next to him to help run in behind. I also think the 2 wide players, James and chilwelll, should do more inside runs instead of being very wide all of the time
The title breaks my heart as a chelsea fan, but it was coming since we drew games which we should have won, and also city and liverpool are definetly superior but it's that who has a better day! And I think to win the league we would need another year!
I think Chelsea suit tournament style football under Tuchel but you have lots of young players coming through that will only get better
Chelsea are at a level where in any other leauge they’d probably win but the prem just have 2 elite teams already with Liverpool and city
@@homoerectus3355 not the Bundesliga
@@mickmccarthy8219 Facts. The system we play is only good against bigger teams who will “open up” to play their football.
Everyone kept telling that liverpool will only get 4th because they don't have a good bench and have not spent money.
However it's crazy to match what city have.
A lot of money and an amazing mananger.
Now they have an amazing youth system too.
Liverpool have the manager and the youth..
But aren't able to spend like City and are using sensible transfers and money management.
However, I do think another forward player will make liverpool as good as city.
🎶 Tom Worville has decomposed in the scattergram
Tom Worville has decomposed in the scattergram
A decomposition happens when some dies
But this time they died in a scattergram 🎶
Tifo are some of the biggest football nerds out there and I’m all for it. Quirky humor and great analysis make for an entertaining combo, keep up the good work!
I’ve just realised, Chelsea have quantity but not a lot of quality. Liverpool have quality but not quantity. But City have both
Well said, very true! This is what Chelsea has to work on!
Liverpool have both the highest quality and quantity of shots. Unless you're speaking squad strength? Then that's astute!
@@princelyh.glorious4946 squad strength
Agreed. Players like Ziyech and Hudson-Odoi are about the same standard as Bukayo Saka -ie: good, but not title-winning quality.
Can't believe Joe Devine's "appearance" as the ghost of Tom Worville was uncredited. What an outrageous injustice!
I love Tifo, I think it’s my favorite sports related channel on CZcams. The videos you guys produce are high quality with great information, but there’s always a bit of fun and goofiness. Keep up the great work! 😀
Can we see a comparison of the best teams in PL history with the current top 3? Would help in accurately judging how good the current teams are as compared to the past greats.
there aren't xg stats for the 90's
@@felixbache5369 this scattergram doesn't depict xG, rather simply the number of shots taken and faced by each team. This information may be available for noughties if not the 90s.
The Ghost of Tom Worville😂😂😂😂. Really!😂😂 Tifo is the best. Happy holidays guys❣️
I love how he says theyve been lucky but really they have been battling through covid cases and injuries the whole season. Thier best player is Kante but no one wants to acknowledge the massive impact he has on the pitch, also having the partnership of Chillwell and Reece James has been disrupted several times.
We haven’t seen them at their best for a good period of time now, but they’ve not been “lucky”. No one expected liverpool to win without Van Dijk but when Kante goes out its not supposed to matter apparently.
A video on how Dyche set up Burnley in the championship would be interesting, might show how he’d set up in a team with better players in the PL
THE Scattergram instead of A Scattergram in the intro song has me thinking “how long before this imperious beast consumes us all?”
Tuchel reminded me of Zidane, amazing in tournament but bad for the league, opposite of Pep and Conte, as they have more consistent tactics that effective against weaker team, While manager like Zidane and Tuchel are more dynamics manager, they often make a sub that can contribute to goals, they may make mistake on league game, but in the 2 legs game like UCL or facing a same level opponent, these guys are very difficult to defeat.
Mark Carey is such a perfect fit for Tifo. Dealt with the skeleton and the robot perfectly
Yall deserve a like for the song alone
The biggest difference between liverpool and city is that though Liverpool are conceding few shots, the quality of shots that Liverpool are conceding is really high, it's like city 19/20 levels, whereas city are conceding few shots and also the quality of those shots are really low, something they did in 17/18 and 18/19 as well which is why they should win the league this season as well
That’s credit to an unbelievably well-structured press
@@bryanugwudike9858 Each game City play takes the piss out of all the pundits that screamed how badly they needed Kane. Their pressing and movement upfront is something else, bordering on redefining the forward roles. Liverpool have better finishers and more offensive output from fullbacks but no one creates like City. And they defend extremely well.
@@mart4414 That us a very unfair assessment since even Ederson can dribble and pass in that city team. They all share the Long Ball/short pass ability. All exhibit class on the ball. Its clear Pep had a profile of Xavi Alonso's surprisingly, he went for Steven Gerrards and got them in every position
Spot on with Wolves as well, they havent been conceding as much and havent scored that many too
Yeah I've just been betting on a draw every game they play lol
I cannot stress enough how much this is my favourite tifo series
Not mine (though I like it). Bring back Joe talking about skeletons!!!
So they’re just gonna ignore that Jorginho has been playing with an injury, Kante has been out for a month and Kovacic has been out for 2 months? That’s a key reason we don’t have similar points to City and Liverpool right now
No not at all, even with those players you were over performing important metrics.
@@philiphughes8821 they’re a key reason to the dropped points in the past month along with the 3 ST covid cases for 2 league games in a row, we could easily be 1st right now regardless of metrics
More and more it feels like Tifo is a front for Joe Devine to trial abstract torture methods on a handful of highly qualified but utterly helpless football journalists. I am absolutely certain Joe was piloting that skeleton.
This graph confirms exactly what I thought there’s the 2 top sides, Liverpool and city which are just absolutely out of this world then between them and the rest there’s Chelsea who’s about as far from them as the rest kind of separated from everyone else (this is why I think they’ll be reasonably far from Liverpool and city in 3rd but far ahead) and there’s the rest with the most likely for 4th Man United West ham and Arsenal at the front of the rest. Tottenham are so far back probably because of the Nuno period we’ll see how close conte can get them to 4th.
Tottenham have 3 games in hand…win all 3 and they’re in fourth: 3 points in front of Arsenal and 3 behind Chelsea
@@romantra1311 what have Tottenham done this season to show they’re in contention for top 4 get knocked out of the conference leauge?
Hugh Murdoch looking at the conference league doesn’t really say much as Spurs never played anything close to a first 11. Conte is a world class manager, the weekend showed that against the big teams Spurs will be compact and hit on the counter, with some defensive reinforcements in January then they would be my pick for 4th
@@homoerectus3355 if anything, them being dumped out of Europe allows them to focus more on the league
@@homoerectus3355 Conte having not lost a single league game is one thing to show that Spurs are up for it. They also had higher xG against Liverpool.
Ghost of Tom Worville lol
Enjoyed this a lot guys, keep up the good work
Good video but not sure why you didn't graph xG vs xGA per 90 instead of shots? Best to incorporate both volume and quality of shot imo
i love tifo such high quality vids
The mood in those scattergram videos is just pure total perfection. Love it! You rock Tifo really, such a great channel 👍👍🤘🔥 P.S. Still wait for JJ's singing career to explode and buy the CD 😜
A comparison of number of shots on target conceded vs taken would given a much clearer picture.
Chelsea’s form dropped off when Chilwell got injured and Hudson Odoi stopped starting
It's truth that Chilwell was having a very solid and consistent performance, which helps the team, but keep in mind that Alonso started most of the games at the beginning of the season, and he was playing really well too. Around that time Chelsea had a great form, and remained at the top of the league with almost identical results to Liverpool. So it's not like they can't do a good job without Chilwell in the team. His absence is a factor, sure, but there are other factors contributing to their drop in form. I would say it comes down to fatigue. It's a very good team, but it's always gonna be a challenge to keep the energy and the level for a long run. Off course that's a problem for every team, but both City and Liverpool have been rotating here and there at times, and while their squad players are a little "less good" than the starters, they are still very solid and do a great job when required. Chelsea rotates occasionally too, but I get the impression their squad players just can't replicate the same level as their starters.
@@TheNormalJuan Nah dude. Nothing to do with squad depth. The reason Liverpool and City are so consistent (besides having the same manager and process for more than 4 seasons) is because the system they use gets the best out of the squad in general, and they've also managed to keep their players fit, injury free and covid free. Chelsea on the other hand are just about to finish their first year with Tuchel, his tactics don't get the best out of the attack consistently, and mainly there's been a lot of injuries and covid absentees to key players at key moments. Chelsea's squad depth is good enough to compete with City and Liverpool. It's a matter of getting luckier with injuries and Tuchel finding a way to improve the attack without having to reley on the speed of wingbacks and the usage of a false 9 all the time.
@@PhillipMartinez09 Obviously injuries hurt a team but with Chelsea, they were in a hidden crisis even before they started dropping points. I don't know the reason for the crisis tho. Im just a live punter and mainly watch a lot of games to get a slight edge, so this is going to be hard to explain and impossible to prove, but that's what I wrote down at the time. There was something wrong with Chelsea even before the injuries, or perhaps there were some lingering injuries hurting the movement of some key players. But again, this is just speculation.
@@PhillipMartinez09 not so sure. Liverpool has also suffered from injuries to key players like Fabinho, Firmino and Elliot this season (not as bad as last season, but still), and the rotation players have done a really good job, maybe not always perfect, but they have helped a lot. Chelsea's rotation players don't have that same impact. Sure, they have lots of players, but many of them are nor quite there yet to be relied on frequently. As for Tuchel's tactics, I guess it's a good point, his system is very different from what most of the players were used to, and some players adapt more easily than others. But it still worked really well for most of the season so far, it's only more recently that their form is dropping, so it wouldn't be an issue of the tactics alone, it's the fatigue as well.
@@TheNormalJuan Exactly. I think it's a mix of everything. Fatigue is due to lack of rotation, squad depth and fixture congestion. Liverpool and City have had a couple of injuries here and there but nothing too serious. Chelsea have 10. Including the likes of Chilwell, lukaku, CHO, Havertz, Christensen, Jorginho, Ziyech, Werner. Just now Kante and Kovacic are returning but they don't have match fitness. It's not the same. Before the injury crisis Tuchels rotations were very effective and they would always help out the team just like when Liverpool and City do. Buts it's one thing to rotate a couple of players from match to match. It's another when you don't have options. Marcos was effective at first because the focal point was Lukaku. Since that stoped working we switched back to false 9 and attacking freedom from the wingbacks. But since we don't have Chilwells speed that tactic stoped working as well and right now Marcos is only slowing down the attack, hence also affecting the defense. So I go back to what I said earlier. It's about keeping your players fit, having a plan B to get the best out of the attack (and defense), and of course giving the managers time to gel the squad. But Chelsea's squad depth isn't the biggest issue. Even Saúl is proving to be a helpful assett. And that's due to time and adaptation. For now the focus should be getting the best out of him and Marcos while our first team players return.
I've been telling a friend the same thing all season.
Now I finally have the perfect video for my argument
Any teams who's success is built on not conseding. Are at a disadvantage in winning a league. City and Liverpool rolling over teams leaves them less likely to get caught with an undeserved draw or one nil loss.
Terribly stale humor and dialogue here lads, i love it
After our performance against watford and west ham, i know we won't win the league this season. We either can't create the chance, or we can't finish the chance we rarely create
Also dont forget always throw the lead away. Sometimes on the very next attack we concede. For ex. versus Everton it was like 2 min after we scored.
Come for the scatter graph song stay for the insightful info
Best scattergram yet
Bruh I love how they throw shade in a friendly way 😂😂😂✊🏽🔥
Mark, on the scattergram try adding a tail to each data point. The tail would show last week’s position, then the position two weeks ago and finally three weeks behind. So, the tell tail may show future direction. In Chelsea’s case over the season, we expect the data point heading North-West if that makes sense?
When Chelsea where singing lukaku I told my friend if they sign him they will win the league and I’ve never been so happy to be wrong
Hasn't been playing consistently. Maybe you are still right. And 22/23 is on its way
The season isn’t over tho
You were not wrong. How would you have known that he would get injured and then be out with C19?
@wesley snipes you must be about 16 with no hopes of being a pro football player with the way you're projecting.
@@radogeorgiev5732 With City or Liverpool on the prowl... Most likely
6:25 Ohhh... So this is what they really meant in the intro song by saying that "Tom Worville is gone"
Sad to see no one was credited as 'puppeteer' in this video..
I just came here cause the song & JJ taking football makes me less anxious.
Can someone tell this guys Chelsea have an injury crises?
I'd like to see this with data from a Liverpool and Man City fixtures omitted. A clearer demo of who is best of the rest
Would it make more sense for them to play 3-4-1-2 rather than 3-4-2-1? Drop someone like mount or ziyech into the 10 and play 2 strikers? Leaves more space for the forwards and gives the midfield more creativity
We do normally play that style, but at the moment we got no strikers to put on the pitch, so we have to just put whoever in the team to try and get back until Lukaku,Havetz,Werner are all fit
"Should we see if I can grapple it?"
"No." 😂
Whoever came up with the robot idea is a legend.
It would have been nice to include XG in the scattergram, so we don't rely only on words for it. A 3d scattergram!
6:25 top ten biggest jump scares of all time
You should compare the data before and during our string of injuries. I’m sure you’d see things aren’t nearly as bad normally.
No this has been present the whole season + Chelsea and Liverpool currently have the same amount of injuries
Tifo IRL please change "sky vacuum" intro - debunked by the second law of thermodynamics (entropy increase) years ago. Apart from that, loving the content thanks.
We need more lore about that skeleton
Also fml, my club 😭
No video title ever caused me this much pajn 😣
I agree most of what I said but if you are a chelsea fan, you would understand that these stats are taken out of context.
Yes chelsea have conceded a very few chances but high quality chances but look at the games, Manchester United (Jorginho Error), West Ham (Mendy Errors), Reece James freak own goal, 2 set pieces that were poked in.
These are odd goals that have been going in/chances being given away which won't happen week in week out. Bad form, loads of chances given away. Attack is still a problem but I fully expect the defence to be sorted in the next weeks.
The opponent stats for npxG/Sh against Chealse is 0.09, which is the 4th lowest. How does this reflect - " conceding high-quality chances"? Shouldn't the stat reflect that the quality of opportunities Chealsea concedes is relatively low? which in turn means they have been lucky? Can someone please explain.
Stats are like mini-skirts....the fact that Chelsea is still in the running despite the injuries and COVID absences is a testament to the quality of the team. City and Liverpool will have their bad patches then we'll see. 19 games to go..all to play for.
I just watched this for the song
you can only do the 'trapped in a graph' joke so many times...
How is there a higher average for shots conceded than taken if the clubs play each other 🤔
Different teams have played different numbers of games and it's an average of the teams, not the games.
Thanks for spelling it out Tifo. The writing was on the wall 😭
Tbh I jam to the scatter gram song
Wow this board is so telling
Fellow viewers, would any of you happen to know of a similar analytical channel in English for La Liga?
Thanks
The ghost of Tom Morveil 😂😂
6:27Quality content! As expected. KUTGW! :D
Poor Tom has gave his all to that scattergram and just left him dead and withered. Still looks good in that merchant tho
As a Chelsea fan I cannot accept this video, sorry
More power to you
Do a video on DAVID DE GEA. He's been spicy lately.
A Jacques de Bones cameo!!
Once mendy, salah, mane leaves for national duty these stats will change drastically
How come the league average shots and average conceded shots have different values?
I want to know how the meeting which the intro music was decided went. Was JJ keen on singing like an asthmatic child? Or did he need convincing? I need to know.
As a Chelsea fan, this irritates me immensely.
Good
@@jamesduffy7549 We'll keep fighting though and wait for the two to slip
Leeds play like Keegan`s Newcastle side in the 90`s.
This is the content I want 😅
An xG vs xGA plot might be interesting
💔
Kante and kovacic being back would change things 🤷🏻♂️
Imagine being a chelsea fan and being told your team won't win the league, and then having to listening to that song.
😔
The real test will be in January-February period.
Thats when players get long term injuries or fatigue or lazy
Happened every year to PL clubs
Covid numbes are going through the roof, Scottish clubs are playing behind closed doors.
@@markant9534 oh yeah, forgot about omicron
Alonzo is just not Chelsea level
They are scoring off of him
Why the league shots average have not same value as shots against average ??
“Non penalty shots conceded per 90”
Am I confusing myself?
Ghost of the Tom worville past 😂😂
The Blues suffered alot of injuries at the busiest time of the season
TIFO seem to be using different data then whoscored. On Whoscored Arsenal have 14.8 shots/game, which is the 4th best, with Man Utd following with 13.8 shots/game in 5th.
Arsenal's shot location is also improving, so while I still think Man Utd will pip us for the 4th place, Arsenal is clearly the team with best current trajectory.
Top site here. Watch all the time but the goofyness is too much and subtracts from the great quality. Its cool to be goofy but to try to be goofy is a little tough for me. My opinion and I'll see you on the next vid!
So they have given poor Mark a scatter graph of shots taken and shots conceded when what he really needed to demonstrate the point is a scatter graph of xg per 90 vs xg-against per 90.
So in conclusion: we actually need to look at an XGf / XGa scattergram?
Meh, given the vast difference of shots for vs against for all three teams, the title will be down to a couple losses here or there. All that this graph really shows is that Liverpool and City are more likely to win by several goals than Chelsea are. However, the probability of any of the three drawing becomes significantly closer to one another. Say, Liverpool has a 75% probability of winning their average PL match, City 80%, and Chelsea 72% (arbitrary numbers to make a point). The chance that any of these teams has of drawing pretty much takes up the majority of the rest of the probability, so let's say 22% Liverpool, 13% City (let's say they like to take risk to try to win), and 26% Chelsea (Tuchel tends to be pragmatic). That leaves the probability for loss at 3% Liverpool, 7% City, and 2% Chelsea. What does this mean?
All it really means is that all these teams are going to win almost every match, besides ones where they play each other. So the title comes down to a loss or a draw here and there. If these probabilities were accurate, we'd expect that City lose over twice as many matches as Liverpool and over 3x as Chelsea. But, we'd also expect them to win a bit more than either. Twice as many losses as 1 is... only 2. Three times is only 3. To make up the difference, they've only gotta win a match or two while the others draw.
On an even more significant note, with such fine margins, the statistics of the overall season might seem to matter most. However, it's actually the statistics in specific, title winning matches that matter. How do Chelsea's tactics fare against Liverpool's? In this game, does Liverpool manage to produce more, higher quality chances than Chelsea?
Because Chelsea could maintain their inferior statistics across the season, but win by beating Liverpool twice. These are the potential margins.
I would like to see this for Conte's title winners. They seemed lame as hell and but keep winning 1-0. Was it that the rest of the league was just crap?
Honestly, I want to raise a petition to bring back Tom Worville in the scattergram. I think he is the original scattergram prisoner and I consider it unfair that he was taken from us. Tom Worville the cult hero!
he has a new job in case you weren’t joking
This hurts me
I blame saul 😂😂😂
8:25 it’s a pretty weak reasoning guys :)
Mark wave a carrot in the next video for us if you are being threatened by the scattergram gods please
Chelsea wont win the league. Im a chelsea fan but no team can win anything with this kind of injury. Just like liverpool last year. No shame.
JJ gained some weight, good for him