Winds of Winter Theory: The Battle of Steel Won't Happen
Vložit
- čas přidán 3. 06. 2024
- Hello everyone! I've been getting quite excited for the Winds of Winter lately, and wanted to discuss my theory about the Battle of Steel. What do you think? Is there anything I missed? What do you think of #houseofthedragon so far? Be sure to leave a comment, as well as like the video and subscribe if you enjoy.
My Twitter: / quinnthegm
00:00 The Four Battles
00:59 Background on Aegon
02:31 Misconceptions About the Battle of Steel
03:29 Arianne II, TWoW
03:44 The Capture of Storm's End
04:49 Will a Different Battle Occur?
05:33 Understanding Mace Tyrell
07:12 Avoiding a Battle
08:45 In Summation - Zábava
Cant wait to see more of Euron. He is an absolute menace.
You’re never going to find out. GRRM will never do the right thing and work on writing the rest of the series. He has no reason to.
@@OberynTheRedViper that’s the spirit
His nothing more then a lunatic
Along with his gallavanting big cock… 😀
There is only one menace and it is Stannis the Menace
The way I imagine it, we find out how they take Storm's End in a way similar to the Griffin's Roost chapter. With the castle already being taken when the chapter starts, and Jon Connington thinking about how they pulled it off.
My sentiments exactly.
@@QuinnTheGMnah it happened once this way, twice is pushing it.
@@okdude8215 It’s just extra, unimportant information. Martin could do that for every battle.
@@jmeds94 he doesn't tho because it would be boring...
@@okdude8215 Because you need to give the readers at least SOME action. The majority of the books are not action though. There’s lots of chapters dedicated to important conversations and intrigue. Progressing the story.
Winds is going to be ripe with enough action for two books. An early chapter glossing over the events of the Battle of Steel is no big deal in the grand scope of it.
If every single chapter is a battle, that would be very out of form.
I have a different take on Mace Tyrell. I personally think his siege on Storm's End was kind of brilliant. Just hear me out, this is going to take a second.
Robert's Rebellion, at the time, was heating up something fierce. Robert had a substantial portion of Westeros at his back. He had support of The Vale (somewhat), The Riverlands, The North, and The Stormlands. On top of this, The smallfolk were also rallying to his cause (not all of them, but enough to sway certain events, more on that in a second.) The Westerlands were sitting this one out, for the most part. Aerys Targarian did have a substantial force however, Robert was gaining ground by the day.
Robert only lost one battle, at Ashford. However, he's won the rest up to that point. Anybody who bent the knee, he spared. The smallfolk loved him so much that they gave Jon Connington chase around Stony Sept by constantly moving Robert from place to placr until the Stark/Tully army lifted the seige.
So, here's where it gets interesting (for me, at least.) Mace Tyrell sits upon the seat of, arguably, the most important regions in Westeros. His lands are rich in food, commerce and swords. If he backs the wrong seat, it would ruin him.
However, he figured out a way to show his loyalties to house Targaryan without actually having to fight. By laying seige to Storm's End the way he did, he used an effective tactic (statvation and psychological warfare with his lavish feasts) without having to sacrifice much. Once he found out Robert won the battle, he surrendered and bent the knee.
We see the same thing during The War of the Five Kings, as House Tyrell used starvation tactics against Kings Landing until a marriage pact was made between the Iron Throne and House Tyrell.
Now, I'm not saying that Mace is a competent battle commander. Far from it. If he led an army without proper council from experienced commanders, then he's destined to get the crap kicked out of him.
But, I don't think he's as buffoonish as people make him out to be, either.
To be fair, I'm most likely wrong on this front. Mace is most likely not as politically savvy as I think, but I still find it interesting how his army (and his house) has been able to find victory without too much damage done to his region.
Just my thoughts. Love the content, BTW.
This was a fun and interesting read thanks for typing it out , honestly I had the same thoughts in relation to mace Tyrell not just being a fool.
Every time this theory pops up people say it was all Olenna's idea.
This is what I thought Walder Frey did when he showed up to the battle late
@@jamethlawthon5602people love to act like olenna is the only smart person and unable to make mistake or whatever, if it was intentional of course it was her idea she has the true control in highgarden if it was unintentional all on mace the fool that didn’t listen to mommy dear
Mace acts the most like an actual medieval lord at war aka he doesn't constantly engage in needless risky behaviors. In real life, battles were rare, they're unpredictable and if a king lost a battle and was captured, the war was instantly lost. They only happened when both forces involved thought that victory was a sure thing or when the weaker side did not have a choice but to fight. 95% of warfare was sieges. Sieges were preferred because they were not risky for an army and you were guaranteed a result in exchange for a time investment. That's why wars could sometimes last for decades, since sieges could take years.
The War of the Sicilian Vespers went on for 20 years but there was only a handful of notable land battles. Everything else was naval warfare and sieges.
My guess is that Aegon will team up with Reach's and Dorne's forces and march to Oldtown to deal with Euron first (since he is a bigger threat to Aegon than anyone in King's Landing at this point). As for Dany, it would be funny if she landed in Vale and allied herself with Littlefinger (I believe that weasel is capable of allying himself with just about anyone), while resurrected Jon would try to talk everyone into fighting the actual threat on the North. Only mystery to me is what Lannisters will be up to, since they are pretty much powerless now after Kevan's death. I also can't even guess what will happen to Stannis, but something tells me that his time is, unfortunately, running out.
Jon will turn into a monster upon resurrecting. Just like how Catelyn became Lady Stoneheart.
But like how are the Greyjoy’s more of a threat than the combined forces of Lannister and Tyrell, I thought it’s established that the Greyjoy’s suck at having strong land armies.
@@sansonefabio8177 Euron's dark sorcery.
@@joemama-qy4fb ok I see, but I figure not everyone knows about that yet, nor is it confirmed that he's as powerful as we think. (f)Aegon will only go after him once Old Town falls but not before I think..?
Yeah but euron is not a huge treat yet the reader know what he is but the characters in the story don’t know people will know when he will stole daenerys dragon I think
Seems likely. For Aegon to be a legitimate force in Westeros, he can't be getting in big battles with his army (Golden Company). 1-2 big fights against a host of the size The Reach is able to field, and the forces would collapse and run back to Essos.
He has to appear to be strong when in reality, he is weak. He has to pretend Dorne has joined the fold already. He has to inflate the numbers of his army. He has to inflate his claim (non-existent).
He is technically Varys' pawn and who is better liar and manipulator than Varys?
I would argue his claim is existant as a blackfyre he would just br pretty low of the list
@@mschell8022 Littlefinger but I agree
Aegon (as far as we know) and most of his followers truly believes that he’s the son of Rhaegar Targaryen so his claim is not exactly “non-existent”. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter if he’s actually a real Targaryen or not what matters is what most people think he is. That was Varys’ argument to Tyrion when he argued that “power resides where men believe that it resides.”
@@kaiserkonnigratzer1528 you nailed it. The irony too is that...nobody actually deserves to rule in a monarchy. Nobody has a right to rule others but because the common person goes along with it, it continues to exist. So the point made by Varys applies absolutely. The hilarity is that people argue online over what entitled royal deserves the crown more when we are all supposed to believe in liberal democracy as a norm. I always take this as a little joke by George
I swear, if Martin doesn't get these last 2 books out before we land people on Mars, Ima flip my shit, I will.
My brother in Christ, this is now a race between Fatman finishing his books or his arteries finishing Fatman. He will last just a couple of years, top.
I think we will be lucky if TWOW ever gets published and we can forget about a dream of spring. It will forever remain a Dream.
I’m sure we’ll get a version of Winds eventually. When GRRM dies they’ll release whatever’s completed.
@@erikcribley5271 Unless he has Contracted it otherwise.
@@AL13NM that would be the biggest F you to the asoiaf community
GRRM's newest interview said he has 1200-1300 pages done, another 400-500 pages to complete. Seems feasible, I am holding out hope for 2024!
@@maxolivermurray It’ll take him ten years to write that many pages.
I used to like the idea that Mace would take half of his troops to KL to rescue Margaery and Connington would sway Tarly and Rowan to Aegon’s cause in the meantime.
However I really like this suggestion. Mace to me is like a stupid Westerosi version of Harry Strickland so JonCon will mind roast him in his chapters. Can’t wait and hold fast for the Mannis till then.
Tarly has been sent to the capital and is currently holding custody of Margerey and her cousins before their trials.
The bigger danger is Loras getting injured taking Dragonstone
General Caesar.
I'd forgotten Mathis.
I expect he'll be the first Tarly bannerman to defect.
Mace is not the fool he plays, he did have Lady Ilenna as a mither. it's a ruse he uses to disarm potential foes.
I think this is all likely to happen. But I don't think Dany will burn King's Landing, because frankly, King's Landing may not even be standing by the time she shows up. When Aegon's army arrives at King's Landing, Cersei is clearly gonna go nuts, and possibly a cause a big wildfire explosion. And not only that, but I think JonCon is also going to go mad at King's Landing due to his PTSD being triggered by the bells, coupled with his greyscale, so an epidemic is likely as well. Wildfire and greyscale is how I see King's Landing is going down in the books.
Also Euron! I think he'll be involved in some fuckery as well
If anybody's gonna burn down King's Landing, Cersei in a fit of "fuck you if I can't have it nobody can" makes _way_ more sense.
I feel like once they have marched on kings landing the greyscale and bells will push joncon over the edge and lead him to do something horrific to poor tommen.
I disagree, I think aegon will be the ideal king, his actions unimpeachable. This will make him even more loved by the smallfolk, and kings landings acceptance of him will be the thing that drives dany to madness. That she has spent her entire life preparing to return to westeros only to be spurned and beaten there by a fake who is loved by all.
@@rampantrambling8178 what you said has nothing to do with what the other guy said
@@mrj4082 lol fits with his username i guess
“If Storm’s End is so impregnable, how do you mean to take it?” asked Malo.
“By guile.” Maybe you're right, It’s likely that the Golden Company defeated the besieging army, and posing as sellswords hired by Stannis, gain entry into Storm’s End and overwhelm the garrison but i think it's not enough, Ser Gilbert Farring is not that gullible. I think Jon Connington will use Edric Storm to gain entry and force to surrender the garrison, in fact ,the second in command at Storm’s End, lord Elwood Meadows, is an expert in surrendering garrisons.
I see FAegon being set up as a Argilac the Arrogant character. And if my other belief that Cerci will blow up King's Landing before fleeing to the Westerlands and crowning herself as Queen of the Rock, it would leave Westeros in the same position as during the original conquest. Targaryen on Dragonstone (Danny), Arrogant claimant in Stormlands (FAegon), Dorne untouched (Doran or Arianne), Reach (Willas as think Mace will die), Iron Isles (Euron), Vale (Robin controlled by Sansa like the boy king at time of conquest), North (Jon or Stannis but implying the future of "The King Who Knelt"), Riverlands in shambles not really counting.
Cersei keeps digging herself to her own graveyard. As Westeros collapses and the north is too busy dealing with the threat of the others. Dany is going to be in a fight with (F) aegon
If westaros is in danger I highly doubt dany would be wasting time fighting a easy conflict with faegon because realistically he stands no chance against her .
I doubt Mace Tyrell will switch sides. I'd much rather see it like Rowan and Tarly declare for Aegon openly and the latter seizes the capital with portion of army he leads so Mace's force has to surrender and perhaps give Mace as a prisoner to Aegon or kill him.
However, I like to think the battle will happen. Elephants :P
Even if Mace doesn’t switch sides, he’ll quit supporting the Lannister’s if his major vassals switch. The Tyrells never fight their own vassals unless they get strong Crown support, such as with the Florents.
I don't see Margery being found innocent. I can see Mace expecting Cersei (or whomever is in charge of House Lannister at this point) to deliver an innocent verdict but the High Sparrow refusing to be swayed and that causes the Tyrells to join with (F)Aegon
@lidocaine pka Sleeping with Renly would hardly be a problem since she was married to him - I don't think she's claimed they never slept together, but maybe she did? I have the impression she implied he was extremely reluctant "for some reason" but not that it had never happened (I could be wrong). And I doubt if Margery has been unfaithful she'd do anything that could result in a pregnancy, but that leaves a fair degree of latitude.
@lidocaine pka A King will accept somebody's leavings if it's politically convenient - that's why Margery went on to marry Tommen (and IRL Henry VIII married his brother's widow)
@lidocaine pka yea but that’s not true if that widow comes backed with the largest army in Westeros, that’s why the Lannisters married Margery to Tommen after Joffrey died and married her to Joffrey before him after Renly died, because the alliance with the Tyrells is invaluable to the Lannisters
@@johnpotts8308 No, that would be a huge problem. The marriage would have been Consummated at that point. The whole reason it works for her switching Lannister is because they can claim the marriage was never Consummated and thus null and void. That's a common medieval loophole. It adds further insult to the original husband by claiming he was not man enough to Consummate his marriage and shows an unwilling bride.
@@justinlast2lastharder749 Whether a marriage is consummated or not only matters if their husband is still alive. Widows never had a problem remarrying - if they came with loads of money and useful political connections, at least (eg Margaret Beaufort or Catherine Swynford). Indeed, for an in-Universe example, see Jeyne Westerling - she's been promised a advantageous marriage (or rather, her mother has been promised an advantageous marriage for her). The only problem with marrying a widow is there may be some doubt as to who the father of any children is, which is why there is usually a gap of around a year between husbands.
Tbhh. I really want to see Jon and Aegon Duke it out. If it is revealed that R+L = J is true. I want to see the reactions of people when they realized they have been fighting for a blackfyre usurper. (F-aegon is totally a Blackfyreeeee)
I mention exactly this in my video coming out this Sunday!
@@QuinnTheGM oh wow! That's amazing! I really am hoping Jon survives. Maybe different. But what I am truly hoping for and this is a stretch. That he eventually meets up with Dany or claims a dragon.
I believe there will be key things that Jon claims in subversive manners that proves his legitimacy to the throne. For example. Perhaps Dark sister or Blackfyre itself being found and used by Jon. Or Rhaegal fleeing far west away from battle in the east . Being calmed and claimed by Jon. All the while R+L is proved more and more
@@e.m.p.3394 if they go down the similar to the show, they might end up with Dany going against young griff
But if they don't fight, let's hope that they become as friendly as Robert and Ned were (especially if R+L=J is revealed and, even if fAegon reveals his Blackfyre identity, Westeros won't probably care, so long as he takes Cersei out of the throne) and the 2 could lead a 6th Blackfyre Rebellion+2nd Hour of the Wolf!
He will die amongst the bells as Dany goes apeshit. Reliving his PTSD type of shit.
Evetbody loves Stannis but we also definitely know there’s no chance of him winning in the end huh?
I think he’ll beat the Boltons and Freys, but I feel like he’s got 0 shot at the throne in the endgame.
I think there's a small chance he will end up on the throne, losing everything in the process, to then immediately give it up to Jon, because he somehow learns that he has a genuine claim and is the actual savior figure. It'd make sense narratively, thematically and Stannis is just about the only contender who would give up his claim just because it's the right thing to do.
Your latest string of videos have been fantastic. I'm hoping we'll actually see the book in a year or two!
Mean while George is bathing in his pools of gold
I actually think the Redwynes are gonna play a role and take High Garden from the Tyrells. They seem way too interested in the Tyrell cousin as if they’re baiting the Tyrell’s into fighting Griff and then rallying to the course and double crossing the Lannisters. Then I think they’ll nab Highgarden for one of the twins and the other will get The Arbour.
Idk Preston Jacobs did a good theory on it, I had some suspicions that the Redwyne’s and that Myrish woman were Varys cronies though.
Redwyne support is a great point to mention, I talked about it a bit in an earlier draft of the script. The cask of Redwyne vintage at Ilyrio’s does seem to have some meaning behind it.
Hey, what Preston Jacobs video are you referring to?
Cersei and Tyena part 4 or 5 think?
JonCon and Aegon’s men have said that they still have friends in the Reach. I know that a lot of people believe Randyll Tarly to be one of them. Tarly has to resent how Mace Tyrell has tried to take credit for his beating Robert at the Battle of Ashford. Plus the captured Florent home of Brightwater Keep has been given to Mace’s son Garland, despite Randyll’s wife being a Florent. Randyll has plenty of reasons to resent Mace Tyrell.
The Tarlys, maybe the Florents if Stannis loses in the North, the Peakes probably, and perhaps even the Hightowers if they survive Euron.
@@KaiHung-wv3ulPerhaps if Euron wins then the rest of the Reach sides with Aegon if he agrees to deal with Euron first
You should check out Joe Magician's theory on how Aegon took Storm's End too! He includes a whole part where Edric Storm gets legitimized
I’ll have to give that a look! Thank you for the recommendation!
@@QuinnTheGM
Good to see Edric getting something to do.
Read up about the Battle of Zama. GRRM is a fan of history, wouldn't surprise me if those elephants the Golden Company has get used to break up Tyrell battle lines, especially if Mace's delays for Marg's trial allows the Dornish to come up and join forces with Connington's troops. I suspect the first Tyrell gets caught by surprise and defeated, at which point the 2nd Tyrell army comes south and that's the one that gets surprised by the presence of the Dornish army. Arianne has a thing for pretty boys and I don't see her resisting fAegon's looks.
That tactic failed at Zama though, for a sucessful example, I'd refer to te Battle of Tunis in the First Punic War.
I think going for a pitch battle is certainly risky for Aegon's camp, but also necessary, if he lets himself be trapped in Storm End very few lords will be saw to support him besides maybe Dorne, their forces would be uncoorinated an therfore defeated easily. Ironacally he has to do what Robert did, win battles and move quickly rallying local support and try to capture KL.
He needs to be seen like the Warrior King, just and succesful in battles, to rally the suppor of the lords and men of arms, like Robert or Daemon Blackfyre. Whether those battles will been shown in the book, that debatable, we will probably have glimpse like with Robb's campaigns.
I have a feeling it will be a subversion of the Battle of Ashford. In that battle, Randyll Tarly was the aggressive one that made the victory. He is now on the small council. Mace will want to show he was the one responsible for the battle of Ashford. He then ends up like Napoleon the 3rd, captured and disgraced. I don't think it is gonna be an epic pitched battle, I think it is gonna be more like how Jamie got captured. His army then returns home or joins the golden company.
Mace is going down. You nailed it. He is expecting another seige like when Stannis held SE. He will be not expecting or indeed be prepared for an outright attack and he will get routed.
I'm loving these asoiaf videos please keep it up
Really enjoying how your channel gives fact-based analysis of the book content. I feel like a lot of theory channels are way too "this is just my personal opinion and its true because I say so"
I believe that Jon Connighton is going to use his own House sigil to deceive Stannis's troops into opening the gates of Storm's End. Using the Golden Company's sigil seems unlikely, since Stannis's supporters use the fiery heart of R'llhor on a bright yellow field. Connighton, after crushing the Rowan forces, could claim to Ser Gilbert Farring (Storm's End castellan) that he brings reinforcements from Griffin's Roost; since Storm's End is being besieged for nearly a year now, it's quite possible that Farring is not informed regarding the submission of Griffin's Roost to the Iron Throne.
Now regarding the engagement between the Tyrell forces and the Golden Company; Storm's End is indeed a powerful fortress for the Golden Company to reside, but we know nothing about the castle's provisions. After a year long siege, I really doubt that Storm's End could host an army of 10,000 men, including cavalry (and maybe some elephants that survived the Shipbreaker Bay). Thus, if (f)Aegon wants to intercept the Tyrells he will have to confront them outside of the castle in one decisive battle; Storm's End can no longer stand another long siege, especially under these circumstances.
Love the idea :)
Here are my 2 cents: Margaery will die, one way or the other. With Kevan dead no one will stop Cersei from grasping power again and she will make sure Margaery is dead. Once this crow flies, Mace will end up trying to join forces with Aegon and will either be ousted from control by Mathis or by Randyll. Arianne will go over to Aegon, too. Euron will attack Oldtown and many will die, but i think he will sacrifice all the Ironborn that are still with him to gain something more. The High Tower will prevail, but at a heavy prize - maybe the city and the citadel will get destroyed but in the end, it will diminish Euron a lot. Loras will be interesting because when Dany arrives i guess he will still be alive and they will have a talk. Stannis will have his fight against the Boltons in the north, but will die one way or another. Jon will get resurected by Melisandre and gather his following and go south with all the ones who want to follow him. Sansa will marry Harrold in the Vale and influence him and Littlefinger to send the knights of the Vale to the north to oust the Boltons, who will get crushed by the Vale and Jon/Wildlings/Stark Loyalists (Manderlys).
Stannis the mannis Baratheon
The one true king!
the Besteros of Westeros, Stanimal
Has there been any word of Edric Storm? From what I remember, last we know he fled to Lys(?), and has been hiding since. Perhaps on their way to Westeros, Varys/Aegon found Edric and are going to use him to get Storm's End. If Courtnay Pentrose is anything to go by, Storms End is fiercely loyal to Edric.
I’m gonna phrase this carefully so your video doesn’t get marked.
Do you think that Jon Cons greyscale will be used as character motivation making him act more recklessly or do you think that the greyscale will spread into wider parts of Westeros? Do you think that this greyscale might be an abandoned plot line because of recent global events that impacted GRRM?
Ha! I appreciate your caution. That's a great question! I definitely think there's a chance, albeit I wouldn't say a large one. I'm unsure if Martin would let a real-world event change the course of events in his book. Plus Greyscale has already been set up both with JonCon and potentially with Shireen in the North (at least according to Val), so I doubt he would drop both of those. Anything's possible though!
@lidocaine pka it's also a resource from the writer to keep the greyscale in the mind of the reader imo
They'll cure it through an hastily created experimental treatment that is totally safe according to all the meisters.
I always had a strong suspicion that they never actually took storms end by the way they talked about it in the sample chapter it didn’t make sense for the golden company to meet the reach army in the field even if it was to just talk terms and make an agreement why not do that with the safety and leverage that storms end provide I think there is going to be trickery but I don’t think it’s happened yet and I think they’re gonna somehow use the reach army to take storms end without them realizing
I am going to say I have two problem with Aegon being the fake dragon.
If he is a Blackfyre, he is not a 'fake' dragon, he is a black dragon.
Also the story of how Varys saved Aegon is repeated by Varys to a dying Kevan Lannister that Varys is about to finish off. Why lie to Kevan? He is a dead man and not going to tell anyone this story.
Also a lot of people refer to Aegon as a liar but even if Varys is full of shit, Aegon most likely believes whole heartedly and since he was a child that he IS Aegon VI Targaryeon born of Rhaeghar and Ellia. He is the lie. Much like how Alleras Sand is the riddle.
Jon Conington will burn Kings Landing when he hears the bells,he will go crazy,remembering the battle of the bells. Also John and Stannis might fight for the North. Blackfish will help him in some way with his 2000 men. Hell,maybe Stannis witnesses Lady Stonehart giving her life to resurect John and Melisandra makes him understand and they join forces,but knowing Stannis it will be tough. He probably dies fighting the others,i think he wins against the Boltons,and in his mind is Azor Ahai but still dies. Euron,God knows what he is going to do/become. I hope Barystan lives to see Westeros again. Rikon and Davos,and pregnant Jane westerling. So many things to piece together... I sure hope he hurries it up 😁
Can’t wait to read TWOW by Brandon Sanderson.
I feel your spot on.
Nice work
I think if Stannis lives long enough, he would yield up his claim to Danny. He is only seeking his crown as it is his duty, after all.
i love these kind of videos
So there are things I like about this theory and there are things I don't like about it.
So the idea that one of WoW's great battles will be won thru diplomacy rather than warefare or deception does fit rather well with GRRM's anti-war theme and it calls back to how the the Tyrell's swayed their alliegence during the war of the five kings rather niceley. And yeah, it would be a good way to save time & pages for George.
My problem with the theory is that Margery Tyrell is Queen, married to King Tommen Baratheon and Mace Tyrell himself is hand. This makes the Tyrell's more powerful then they've ever been. Why would they throw that away and why would they throw that away for Aegon and the Golden Company? Sure, we the readers know that there's more to Aegon's invasion (Varys, friends in the Reach etc) but to most characters the invasion appears doomed to fail.
Another theory I've read is that Randyll Tarly will backstabb Mace Tyrell on the battlefield. I'm not sure how much stock I put into that theory but it would be interesting considering that
1: Margery is in Randyll's custody and
2: There are two large Reach armies held up outside Kings Landing while the majority of the Lannister forces are opperating in the Riverlands. If they were on Aegon's side this would be the perfect opportunity to siege the capital.
I agree, since the first time I read it I thought: the Tyrells will change sides.
My full theory on Aegon Blackfyre in the sixth book:
Myrcella Baratheon's ship is captured by the Golden Company;
Myrcella is taken to Storm's End, marries Aegon and is declared Aegon's queen consort;
Arianne Martell arrives and sees Aegon married and plots to kill Myrcella, succeeds but is discovered and does not marry Aegon (here I don't know what happens to Arianne, my bet is that she is forgiven and sent back to Dorne in exchange for Dorne's support for Aegon);
Cersei blows up the sept with Margaery Tyrell inside; the Tyrells switch sides and support Aegon;
Tommem kills himself;
Tyrell/Blackfyre army marches into King's Landing, Cersei has her ''burn them all'' moment, Jaime Lannister kills Cersei;
Aegon Blackfyre is declared King and Varys negotiates for him to marry Sansa Stark;
LF and Sansa kill Hardyng and she returns to King's Landing and becomes Queen.
Kind of ignoring Jon's and Stannis' and rickons and the brotherhood without banners arc here but ok
Why would Sansa kill Hardyng? Why would LF want him dead? I'd think LF would want someone he can control in the seat of the Eyrie, but does he have anyone else?
@@nicklion6585 I'm not ignoring, Stannis and Jon are characters that will be restricted to the North in the 6th book, and the Brotherhood It's not a very large force, and as far as I know their focus is pretty much restricted to the Riverlands.
@@isaacmendes1926 When LF comes up with the plan to marry Sansa to Aegon, she will already be married to Hardyng, and the marriage will most likely be consummated. So the only way she can marry again is if Hardyng dies. + Hardyng not easy to be controlled, Anya Waynwood can also influence him, which will be a hindrance for Littlefinger. Frail and sickly Robert Arryn is much easier to control. + Iron Throne >>> Eyrie
@@humbertotargaryen4823 bruh the point is little finger is moving the army of the vale into the north or based on some people's theories the Riverlands and either way he will be stuck in their long enough for either Stannis' or Jon or both to arrive with Jeyne Poole which will pretty much end any Sansa loyalty to LF and she would likely be unwilling to marry a Southern Prince without LFs influence also LF has nothing to gain from a stable realm so more than likely he would kill Aegon before he would help him
If they don't fight, Mace dissolve the Tyrell-Lannister Alliance and wed beautiful Queen Margaery to Ageon VI so he can have some more legitimacy by marrying a Lord Paramount's daughter. Margaery is the only character I'm actually concerned about 🤣🤷🏾♂️
Punch on the nose for Alayne, which I think we can all get behind.
Man, how good would her reputation be, being the queen to FOUR different kings.
@@fakeplaystore7991I think she would want them to stop dying more than anything
@@alanpennie8013not the Sansa hate 😔
@@hi-ls6lt
Damn!
I've done it again.
Arianne I meant to write.
My understanding is that Randall Tarly got Margery Tyrell sprung from the Sept of Baelor. He arrived with his army before Mace and negotiated the deal with the High Sparrow, it was Tarly who gave him guarantees that Margery would show up for her trial. Tarly and his force will remain behind and Mace will go out to confront the Golden Company. Not really sure how the death of Ser Kevan will fit in to this or who the blame for that is assigned to. My take is that if Tarly remains behind as acting Hand, he'd agree to using force against the Faith Militant. Mace will likely fight against the Golden Company if they try to meet him in the open field. Not sure what they can offer Mace that Mace doesn't already possess. It also depends on numbers, things like that. A battle, that Mace loses, seems like the most likely outcome but it's not definite.
It seems very likely that Mathis, and quite likely that Randyll, will betray Mace and defect to the Aegon cause.
Which may cause Mace to either surrender or flee.
@@alanpennie8013 I suppose it's possible, maybe the TV show has influenced me but it also seems possible that if he is named acting Hand while Mace leads the army, is that Tarly could go over to the Lannisters. It Could just be Cersei being like we should just go in there and kill these Sparrows and Tarly surprising her by agreeing. We also know that he has a low opinion of Maesters maybe he has sympathy for Qyburn and the grey rats theory. Kevan suggested to Cersei that she name him Hand. We know Kevan thought he was the real danger but wanted to win him over. So let's say Mace loses, is killed or captured, they've already lost the Shields, then lose the sea battle with Euron, Wilas, the heir, is a cripple and maybe some lords don't have confidence in him, maybe some of the bannermen go over to Aegon, maybe the Tyrells are in big trouble, Tarly if he is in Kings Landing as the Hand, is in a perfect position to be the beneficiary of this if he gains Cersei's confidence. He does have a son who could marry Myrcella, he has daughters who could marry Tommen.
@@mikedeck8381Dickon is already married to someone else.
Doesnt the Golden Company have War-Elephants? Would be a decisve advantage in a field battle (compared to being sieged where they would just be eating way too much)
They’d be an advantage in the field to an extent, but the Tyrell/Reach host is the largest in Westeros. The elephants seem as though they’d only do so much in that context.
@@QuinnTheGM Yeah but imagine being a soldier that has never seen or hear about an elephant and looking at one for the first time. That's what happened the first times the romans faced carthaginians elephants in battle, they didn't knew how to counter those "monsters" and just run from them until some years later they developed tactics to kill them. Plus horses are pretty afraid of elephants + Tarly remaining in KL during the trial means Mace will command the army thinking it will be an easy task like in the Rebellion. Aegon's army can't withstand a siege due to their numbers being in the thousands.
Dood your channel is a nice surprise for sure!
I don't see the Tyrell's joining Aegon unless Lannister defeat looks absolutely certain, especially not while Margaery is in Kings Landing and betrothed to Tommen. I do think it's very likely some Reach houses like the Redwynes and Merryweathers will go over,
She was married to Renly before! Plus the Lannisters have done a TON that the Tyrells would be mad at, most notably getting Margaery arrested and arming the faith militant.
@@QuinnTheGM I guess we'll need to wait and see, great video anyway
@@QuinnTheGM
Mace has a key position at KL currently, but if his bannermen defect he may think it the best course to follow their example.
5:16 it‘s not a strange idea at all. You don’t let your enemy besiege you if you have a sizeable army of your own. People forget this, but castles under siege are meant to be defended by small, even tiny garrisons, not by a big army. It‘s not uncommon historically for castles to have been held by fewer than ten people, and that‘s exactly what they are designed for. You do not defend a castle with an entire army, because it would starve almost immediately while being in the castle severely limits your ability to safely escape or counterattack.
If you have your own army at all (as Young Griff does) you either face the enemy in battle OR if that‘s too risky, you disengage and give your enemy the slip, to try to force an engagement on better terms or hope they won‘t chase you, or attack them somewhere else. In this situation, your castle is very useful as it can be held with a very small force while forcing the enemy to either commit to a costly attack or leave troops behind for a siege…or otherwise risk leaving an enemy strongpoint in their rear if they chase you.
This is exactly how Robert made use of Storms End in the Rebellion: He wasn‘t able to beat Mace Tyrell, so instead he fled north to the Riverlands, where pretty much all his allies were. He left Stannis to hold the castle for him, and Mace takes the bait and lays siege with his whole army, and this essentially keeps him out of the fight for the rest of the war, as Stannis is able to hold the castle for an entire year. In fairness to Mace, he leaving Storm‘s End untaken is just asking for more of Robert‘s Bannermen to flock to Stannis and create a new army to wreak havoc in the loyalist camp; leaving a smaller force besieging Storm‘s End risks the same thing: a smaller force could easily be dislodged by some enterprising Stormlord with any levies he manages to raise.
All this perfectly encapsulates the use of castles in both defense and offense. This is how you do it. If your enemy is on the offense, your castle will slow them down and make their lives as hard as possible. How you don‘t use your castle is trying to hide your entire army in it, because as I mentioned they would starve immediately. If you can reasonably face your enemy in the field, you usually should and this is what most combatants will usually do, especially if they have roughly even chances. Or you do what Robert did and play for time, seeking allies or better terms of battle.
The clusterfuk of betrayel death and random chance that tips the battle of steel is what I been waiting on since 2011
The Mummer's Dragon is definitely a Blackfyre descendent
Not really it could just mean Varys dragon Varys (the mummers) Aegon his dragon
He should just marry Dany tbh.
I will theory R +L= A and N+A =J so Young Griff is real Targaryen.
@@pawezielinski2781 there's literally no proof of faegon being a targaryen he's a blackfire it's obvious.
@@pawezielinski2781 Too many hints that Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son
Makes a lot of sense, given that Aegon needs to grow his power base in Westeros. It'll also make Cersei act more erratically and bloody-handed which might prompt Jaimie to valonqar her. Still hope Martin changed his mind about Dany going mad.
Martin ?! It is wasn’t his doing season 6/7/8
@Xan’cy Pill’osi that's apparently what he's going to do in the books too.
@@GallowglassVTthe mad Dany twist was said to be a show plot line they came up with back in season 3 Martin has never said anything about Dany going crazy in fact he says he told them 3 things
1. King Bran
2.Hold the door moment
3. Shereen burning
I feel like Connington will be forced in some position to burn King’s Landing. My gut feeling in ruminating on The Battle of the Bells.
Stannis no longer uses the actual Baratheon banner, so not sure that idea about the GC taking SE works.
Would Mace switch sides if his daughter is still in KL? One or more of his bannermen are more likely to switch sides.
His banner is still on a gold field, which is the important part of that.
@@QuinnTheGM yeah, but how would someone not at a football field away confuse one for the other? I suppose they did it during a storm.
Mace Tyrell. Not to be confused with Mace Windu 😂
House Windu has not yet chosen a side in the coming war. Everyone wants them, though. In Westeros, you want the Bad MotherF##ers to be on your side..
Mace is a much better singer.
I think jon will try to mimic tywin and destroy an entire town to win the war. That will backfire spectacularly
Great video! One small gripe Golden Company banners are plain gold. The standard of the company is a staff of the golden gilded skulls of the prior company commanders such as bitter steel. Small mistake but with big implications
ALSO LOVEEEE Sor Jon Connington. What is the cure of Greyscale in the TV Show I´m forgot!
I think Margary will be found guilty or somehow end up dead (similarly but better written than the show did) that would subvert the expectation that she's found innocent, otherwise Mace has no reason to defect to Aegon and instead everything to lose with Margary alive and married to Tommen. GRRM said that the coming battles in ASOIAF would be a Second Dance of the Dragons so Aegon needs to win over Mace Tyrell to lead to the Second Dance of the Dragons/Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion (for those who think Aegon is a fake.)
Second Dance of the Dragons should mean fighting between actual dragons, no?
So someone does steal the affection and loyalty of one of Dany's three?
I think mace is gonna march to the baratheon keep. Light some fires in the fog, the two armies will walk around eachother then mace is gonna have storms end open the gates secure the ravens and let Jon con in. Then he will send a raven back that they've won the battle and expect a parade, march their army into kings landing and take the red keep. Left with practically nothing, the Lannisters will try to ally with stannis for anything so they don't end up the only ones fighting the blackfyres and it will be accepted at great cost to the Lannisters but cost stannis his life, part of me thinks it would be funny to have Jamie save Shereen from stannis's fire, a potentially interesting relationship because stannis might be uniquely able to understand Jamie's history of doing the dishonorable thing for the right reason. The vale is a wildcard and will end up playing both sides unless Sansa can usurp little finger and gain the support of the north and potentially Jon Targaryen. I think it's still believable that Jon stays a nights watchmen. Euron will successfully take oldtown and be a constant threat to kings landing. The river lands will remain devastated and up for grabs throughout the whole book potentially contested till long into winter. The iron bank maybe be assassinating people for the baratheon cause at some point which could be how our young arya gets involved with the story again. Maybe she kills doran and Jon con. Daenerys I think might accept the offer of boats to get the hell out once the blackfyres send their letters from kings landing, if she can maintain the city that long. The snub might hurt the relationship with dorne but I cannot imagine what their up to except that they might be the only ones with the ability to counter euron in oldtown, The prince being maybe a dreamer and their whole deceptive plot thing with a sand snake already in oldtown.
If 10% of what I've said is right than I am going to be pleased as punch but I bet old germ has some twists that very few see coming up his sleeves.
Im not sure Mace would so easily flip to Aegon’s side. It’s conceivable and has a historical poetry to it, however it would leave Margery a hostage to the Lannisters back at Kings Landing. Mace a fool but not that foolish.
Although Mace has the numerical advantage, I imagine his forces are predominantly green and Mace a poor battlefield commander. One GC soldier is likely worth 10 of Mace’s, and Aegon has excellent commanders on his side. Additionally, the Stormland’s terrain is excellent for creating choke points and funnels for Mace’s men. Hit and run tactics might also do the trick - more guile.
If margery is considered innocent then cersei would probably be guilty now tyrell could possibly want to join up with aegon if margaery can marry again she could marry aegon i mean if im correct neither of her marrgies were consumated, which is a crime in it of itself if she looks as good as natalie dormer did in the show. However it would feat the major narrative like the warrior loosing his hand the rightful dying following rules etc. Like the beatufil girl that is married away to diffrent kings failing to make that marrige right and we got info from joncon that aegon is seriously considering marrige and what family he should marry to (unless im wrong and he is bethroed couse i havent read the books in a while)
Just a remark: the Redwyne fleet is larger than the Ironborn fleet, if not by numbers, then by tonnage and fighting power.
Some feel that Edric Storm may play a part, as he did end up in Essos.
This makes a lot of sense.
I actually think that the Battle of Ice being Stannis vs Winterfell is a Red Herring.
There is another conflict at its tipping point at a place that corresponds to ice more:
Somehow nobody is thinking about this - The "Queensmen", the 2 factions of Nights Watch and Wildlings are all at one place at Wall..... and they ALL hate each other... and the ONLY guy who was keeping it together has fallen....
I expect the Hell to break loose...
Besides, the Battle of Ice going down without Jon as the Battle of Fire is happening without Dany will be an interesting symetry for GRRM to consider
i really hope that stannis gives up his claims to aegon or danny and just becomes what he always wanted, lord of storms end
I really want that too, but I doubt he’ll do it.
One good act does not wipe out the bad. For that to happen he would accept the punishment he is justly due as a rebel and traitor to the Crown, which would be either execution or being sent to the wall. I'm not even sure it is in his character to accept a pardon for this if one was offered in exchange for his leal service.
Sending Mace to take Storm's End again is a really strange idea.
I’m confused, aren’t Blackfyre descendents still Targaryen
By blood yes, however different claim to the throne. As was made apparent through five wars.
so, faegon gonna meet mace tyrel in battle? have u thought that maybe the way that Martin is gonna subvert people's expectations is by having mace tyrel beating and killing faegon in battle?
think about it, one of the biggest victories of aegon the conqueror was the field of fire, where he beat a huge reach and westerlings army. faegon being a dumb fake, hoping to emulate his ancestor thinks he should do the same by beating another reach army, but fails. (I can only wish, martin needs to get the small stuff out of the way fast, if we might have a hope of him ever finishing the series)
I don't think Mace will switch sides. He really has nothing to gain. The Reachmen basically control Kings Landing after Kevan gave them a bunch of council positions. Cersei just got freed but the Reach has been busy entrenching themselves into city positions. A Tyrell is Queen to an easy manipulated boy. All Mace has to do is defeat Aegon to gain a huge amount of clout, then return to Kings Landing where he can deal with Cersei(perhaps dismiss her and send her to the Westerlands). With the Lannister forces cleaning up the Riverlands, Cersei has almost no power while the Tyrells have their entire army.
Agree with everything except justifying Dany burning King's Landing, which won't happen
Fair! I could see that part going either way. King’s Landing will definitely burn, but it could easily be wildfire.
@@QuinnTheGM
That was how the show was originally going to end, with Dany accidentally setting off caches of wild fire.
You can still see the wildfire exploding in the episode.
Tbh Quentyn's arc isn't unexpected. The whole Dornish plot involves Doran Martell crafting stupid revenge plots and every single time Doran puts one of his plots into motion, one of his loved ones dies needlessly. This even happens with Arianne, she cooks up some stupid plot, then when she pursues that plot her lover Arys Oakheart dies and Myrcella is mutilated.
Can't wait to see what Preston Jacob's and the team comes up with!
I didn’t realize that they were about to do the battle of Steel when I was making this video!
Jon Con is likely to take a LOT OF THINGS by stealth.
If Mace was to flip sides, he would definetely want to marry Margery to Aegon, but she's outside of his immediate reach. He does have a lot of influence on the small council, but Margery still could be used as a hostage.
Aegon will have to choose between Arianne, Margery and Daenarys. And I think he will stick to Daenarys for now, even if marrying someone else would aid his immediate cause. Until she comes to Westeros and goes full mad queen on him.
Aegon's best bet is to link up with someone who has more forces than him and pray they believe him. not likely to be a long term plan that will work because hes exposed and is not being supported by rooted Houses so far. The Golden Company is going to be despised by most.
It's been 50 yrs since the last rebellion. Time changes alot for Westeros and the company
Maybe the battle of steel will be like the battle of Okehazama.
Let’s go aegon Blackfyfe🔥🔥🔥!!!
Many of the exiled knights or their kin are from the Reach!
LOL at the end - Dany isn't going to burn King's Landing. Aegon and Jon Connington were left out of the show. It's Connington that has the bells-associated trauma. He'll burn King's Landing.
Can’t wait to stains take the iron throne and some pepole have theroy about aegon is a blackfyre and a really want a blackfyre in the iron throne but an the same time a want stanis to role but we now after so many years of Robert rolling is the barrtheon cannot role
I think Mace would die in this battle either falling from to the sea like he father or being betrayed by Randall Tarly who could be the friends in the reach the golden company was talking about he could ask Aegon to be given Highgarden by betroving his son Dickon to Margery… I feel like the Tyrells would back Dany maybe with a marriage between her and Wilas Tyrells a lot of time has been spent on him and how he is still unwed
👍
What happens Marg? If Tyrells switch the sides, how Marg can survive at the capital? Also Tommen stil is her husband, that means she is still queen. Why Tyrell give up from this? Yes, Aegon might offer himself but still Tommen thing is an obstacle.
Whenever George starts writing anything, HBO should quickly do a series that finishes before him. Everyone knows he won’t finish
Bruh I was so confused because I thought you were saying “Aeron” as in Aeron Greyjoy but you were actually saying “Arianne”
Aegon will marry Aeron Greyjoy.
Why do I feel like this is Carmine from Red Team Review pretending to be someone else…. lol
Ha! Haven’t heard that one before. I love Carmine’s videos. Unfortunately I am not him!
I thought them taking Storm's End via subterfuge was a given.
Babies do look just like other babies. Or Winston Churchill.
Bro you mentioned the Baratheon Golden Banner. Its true that the main branch uses that one HOWEVER, House Baratheon of Dragonstone uses the Burning heart sigil. Not the Golden one bro so that trick wont work. Well unless Edric shows up. Long live King Stannis. Seethe Aegon simps seethe
BTW thoughts on Aegon heading west with a Golden Company, Dornish, Reach and Stormland army to save Oldtown from Euron before going to Kings Landing? Like he's gotta do something in order to earn the cloth dragon and cheers shit when he arrives in Kings Landing right? It also allows Sam and maybe Gerold Dayne (assuming he steals Dawn) to enter the main story again.
Plus Aegon first defeating the lord of Iron Islands mirrors how his namesake first major fight was with Harren the black
The burning heart is still on a gold field.
Not to be confused with the battle of feathers
They will meet him on the field because if they’re besieged there’s no one to come to lift it.
I don't imagine Mace is going to go over to Aegon's side. His daughter is already married to the king.
hm Stanys does not use the crown stag, but the flamming heart
The important part being the golden field, not the Sigil itself.
@@QuinnTheGM My bad then, thought the field of the flamming heart was black. Have a great weekend bro
You too!
Lol, turning up wearing yellow sounds fool-proof
Jon Con could have lied, maybe he never took the castle…
I’d agree that this is a possibility if Arianne wasn’t directly heading to the castle right after her chapter. Seems weird to send her into a castle they never took.
Unless Marge and Loras are safely out of Lannister hands I don't see Mace switching sides. Wouldn't be surprised if some of his vassals have already secretly declared for fAegon though
Drinking game: Take a shot every time he says "furthermore"
They could have gotten a little more creative with those battle names
Why didn't they call it the battle of Gold
Winds of Winter theory: Winds of Winter won't happen