Gold, Bitcoin, and the Death of Risk Parity in the Midst of Crisis (w/ Raoul Pal and Dan Tapiero)
Vložit
- čas přidán 11. 07. 2024
- If central banks continue to prop up asset markets, will they inevitably debase their currency? And if so - how can investors protect their portfolios? Dan Tapiero, founder of DTAP Capital and co-founder of Gold Bullion International, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to explore these questions and more. Tapiero argues that the Federal Reserve will likely do whatever it takes to re-inflate asset prices by printing trillions more dollars - which he and Raoul agree can only be good for gold. Raoul and Dan discuss bitcoin as an unprecedented call option on the future, full of asymmetric upside, and discuss the proper allocation of gold and bitcoin at this unprecedented phase of central bank dovishness. In addition, Tapiero shares why he believes physical gold and mining stocks are superior to gold ETFs, which he calls “paper gold.”
Thanks for watching The Interview, the premier business and finance interview series in the world.
Subscribe to our channel now for more videos like this one: rvtv.io/subscribe
Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision -- get started for 30 days for only $1: rvtv.io/membership
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Twitter: rvtv.io/twitter
Instagram: rvtv.io/instagram
Facebook: rvtv.io/facebook
Linkedin: rvtv.io/linkedin
Gold, Bitcoin, and the Death of Risk Parity in the Midst of Crisis (w/ Raoul Pal and Dan Tapiero)
/ realvisiontelevision
For the transcript visit: rvtv.io/TheInterview
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that - now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.
Want to stay on top of the news, Real Vision style? We invite you to join our newsletter for our FREE DAILY BRIEFING recently launched to keep up with the latest on coronavirus and its global impact on financial markets. You can find an email sign-up through this link here: rvtv.io/YTDailyBrief
Bitcoin is a ponzi which rose in value by the guys at the top of the pyramid selling it back and forth to each other to pump it. It has zero real value. Total scam.
John gatti you keep thinking that as you live out the end of fiat system, the ultimate definition of a ponzi
@@1960taylor What is fiat?
Why don't you simply put oil prices over a war /CONFLICT CHart. Cheap oil always comes before conflict?
rattle .
Love hearing from those who've been converted from traditional world like Dan.
Well if they can print any unlimited amount, why should I pay any taxes?
Only suckers pay taxes.
Taxes give the dollar value.
@@PreviousAccount528 1) Live outside the system (nobody wants to live like a caveman) 2) Leave the U.S. (to another tax system) 3) Be a criminal with political ties 4) Know how to use common law.
if we didn't pay taxes, then how would our betters pit us against each other?
@@kleetus88 Altruism.
I feel like I am living in a parallel reality. Watching the stock market reverse on itself and hearing people discuss reopening the economy sometime in a week or two. I mean, I am not sure anyone is properly grasping the reality of our situation...
especially when there will be multiple flare ups of the disease
Remember the markets are not the economy and the markets correct before the economy!
because most people watch the TV news. If you understand what's really going on you can see why the TV news isn't going to tell people the truth.
I echo your sentiment, I think people are trying to keep with their old stories of the world. Truth/reality always wins, you can ignore it for awhile, but ultimately it will always shine through.
The thing is if we don’t open up the economy, there is a food crisis coming among all kinds of other shortages.
When Raul is taking, I'm just looking at his house. Haha love it.
green screen
Yes, great pad man 😂
Next level ballin
Too much. CZcams pays it's hosts too much!
I'm looking at his low-buttoned shirt! O_O
Sweet bar and entertainment area my friend.
@HRH President of Tattooine is there a pole for dancing?
The other “bits and pieces” were dress rehearsals. This is the real show.
Alpha Fox still a “soft” start I would say, what do you think?
@MrFourkinghell
The one that totally devastes the world economy. This one just bruised it badly.
These two together is just the best show in town! And free box office tickets 👍
@realvisionfinance can you please leave the social media handles and websites of the people you are interviewing in the discretion of each video
Real Vision didn’t have to release this one for free, but they did, and that’s fantastic. Thanks Raoul and team!
It is two weeks old at this point though. Was recorded March 31st
Unprecedented - the word for 2020
“The worst I’ve seen it”
Sue Ferreira - And beyond!
Yes, there has been an unprecedented use of the word 'unprecedented'
You can also add the unprecedented use of the terms ‘Petri dish’ and ‘new normal’
And yet we are only 16% from the s&p high
Think about retail investors who sold the bottom. Fundamentally, they were right!
This guy called a risk rally on Mar 31st, and says he is staying out of the dollar.
That house looks more like a restaurant! Epic
37min. don't confuse not being able to purchase physical gold with high demand. it is because most gold is transported on passenger flights and most of those have stopped!!
With the Fed "Put" moving to high yield bonds, there becomes the pension rate fix. Just change the regs. to include now "insured" high yields into pension universe.
raising the price of bonds LOWERS yields. the pensions were already having LOW RATES before the crisis. so......
Avg age of boomers 55-75, next decade they will end obviously at 65-85 range. This decade we will see the transfer of wealth from out dated stores of value into Crypto, mostly Bitcoin.
WE FIGHT WE WIN....>THINK FOR YOUR SELF
wow. that was mind expanding
Brilliant Interview.
Great job!
"you should be long as much gold as you can"
Gold is hitting intraday ATHs in many of the main currencies,
such as GBP, EUR, JPY, AUD, CAD ... even CHF.
Against USD it touched 7.5 year highs,
even as the USD itself is very high.
Mines are shut, borders are closed,
refiners are closed or going slow, mints are closed.
Demand is soaring, physical is unobtainable.
Buy gold now, ride the rise,
then rotate to the miners as lockdowns ease.
If you want to add some rocket fuel,
rotate into silver at that point as well.
A great video. Thank you.
Fantastic, thanks so much for providing such great content
Was that a ventriloquist doll hiding in the intro?
The US can create a dollar bear market, it could directly buy gold.
"When the dollar goes into a bear market, that's when gold goes into hyperspace" 😎
The only way the U.S. Dollar gets a substantial drop is a Plaza Accord -2.0 !
Love Dan T!
Awsome!
March 2019 GOLD TIER ONE ASSET 💰
two nice generous knowledgeable guys
Great interview RV
Crypto markets will be where it all goes
I love this video, I've watched it 3 times.
Thank you gents!
Yeah, we’re living to crazy times, but future is bright when it comes to crypto.
no crypto singh we need food singh food
fransua mtl Let them eat cake, they said.
Raising the bar guys 👍😎
BTC Gold Silver Cash
Cash is Trash
Anything the FED can buy will do well short term. And that could potentially include bitcoin, gold & mortgages. Everything else is fcuked!
27:24 who is the young guy Raoul mentions?
Raoul loves this stuff. What a joy when you can see someone enjoying their trade, so to speak. He looks excited, and salivating even.
Cool guy. Great interview.
buy a farm: inflation hedge[upside], and deflation hedge[you can at least "eat"], plus OWNED PRIVATELY[not an I-owe-u so called asset]
Hand up if you plan to run out to the local sports bar as soon as they blow the "all clear" whistle. Movie theatre? Concert?
i'm gonna take a cruise then go to disney world
Every time I hear these gurus talking about gold its always it will double, triple, quadruple in 5 to 10 years! undambelievable!
He does say sometimes macro moves can takes 5/10/15 years to play out tho.
strongly reinforcing my point if view re. BTC and Gold
If the government makes crypto illegal and comes down on exchanges how do you think that will affect the price?
@@mikefox8563 The same way it affected gold when the government made owning gold illegal in 1933... the price will skyrocket. Just like how making drugs illegal makes their price skyrocket.
17:44 What if that dollar up move was observed in another market by a rapid adoption and use of a new digital dollar. A hybrid of sorts, a stable coin collateralized by a digital asset.
So what bitcoin should you buy?
Kris Curtis BITCOIN is the only REAL bitcoin... not “bitcoin cash” etc... just plain bitcoin.
It’s highly speculative, so don’t use money you would miss.
@@cramsa thanks I will read the book and sit tight then
The one called bitcoin that has the most market cap value. Only 1 Bitcoin
There’s a about 100 kinds of Bitcoin like clones. Like there’s USD and Monopoly money.
Doesn’t make monopoly the same as USD, unless the USD chooses to print itself so it becomes monopoly of course.
Luckily, you can’t print more Bitcoin
Haha. Priceless comment. :)
Percentage of gold vs bitcoin in a portfolio with only those for a milenial in his mid twenties with high income, high risk tolerance and saving as much as possible ?? At the moment I only have 100% Bitcoin and some altcoins in the top 10.
Does Gold even make sense to me when I want as much growth as possible in a very long time horizon ? If yes would physical gold make any sense or I should rather look for liquidity and ease of being in / out (plus the premium costs implications). I honestly only see myself with physical gold once I already have a considerable amount of wealth but your thoughts are more than welcome.
Also I did not quite get whats the Macro death about. I assume it is related with traditional asset alocation ref bonds etc but are these comments related in any shape or form to investing in equities ? would make sense to invest in stocks lets say a Global ETF if the stock market was to drop around 80% in a depression scenario ? Or I shall not touch stocks no matter how low they go otherwise ?
I am only interested in economics as a hobby and in order to develop a personal investment plan as my career is in aviation but having the opportunity to listen you gents discuss these topics and your independent opinions and thinking is such a bless even if some insights I quite not get completely. Makes you realize how fortunate we are to living in this information era and I only hope my conclusions are heading to the right direction.
Thanks a lot - great work
DCT I’m on the same boat mate.
Stop posting the same comment everywhere. You sound like a total scam.
@@nachannachle2706 I am looking for answers not the money of anybody. What are your thoughts ?
He’s casual about saying the gold price will likely double or triple, but much more enthusiastic about Bitcoin. What does he expect that to go to, I wonder? I’ll stick to gold, because bitcoin might revert to zero, gold won’t.
If Bitcoin takes of, most experts I heard say it could be a 20-100x -- that's why a small percentage invested is one of the world's best risk/reward bets.
mason appalachiantrail Yup but it does not hurt to put lunch money or happy meal money on it every week or month... you’re probably gonna not even miss it if it ever did go to zero...
You really need to do research in bitcoin and what is going on in that space. Its pretty much not going to zero.anymore and adoption is growing every year.
@@jamesm2881 I really need? Lol. I scored in the top 1% of those applying for an Econ job. I study economics about 50 hours a week. Please don’t assume my knowledge is lacking. Bitcoin is a very, very young asset in a new class. Since I was a child people have been wondering what’s next and I’ve heard a hundred times that assumptions about the future are far fetched fantasy. I’m old enough to know that assuming technology is secure is a joke. While it might be possible for crypto to beat this trend, I just can’t bet my life on it. Be careful and please don’t assume others are less knowledgeable than you.
mason appalachiantrail ok we’ll sell you some bitcoin at 10 million
"It's all gonna end up on the government and Fed's balance sheet in the end" how right we should pray your not... But you probably are.
Great show guys 👍🏼
The name of the German GOLD supplier is: DEGUSSA
(Goosa-lol)
Da goosa gonna lay an egg, a?
Did anyone see that creepy doll @ 0:00 ?
weird
@@squarecompass4582 Steven Figura Guys, has anyone noticed the subliminal puppet/clown at 0.00 literally in the first second of the show. I saw Derren Brown do this a few years ago in one of his programmes to "subliminally control his audience"!! Someone give us an explanation it's quite scary.
Come on lads, of course gold is remonetizing - it just got reclassified as a tier 1 asset..... can you discuss that?
No one talks about how central banks have classified gold as a tier one asset. Pfftt.
"Just" reclassified?
Been like that for a couple of years now.
When Dan embraced the CCP I switched that vid off.
zipp and zapp - Why?
China produces 1/3 of the world goods.
You really need to come to terms with that fact!
Robin Rogers - I wasn’t talking about how it was earned, I was talking about switching off from knowledge just because a person doesn’t like a subject, that only leaves a person with a % of the real picture.
The Fed will go into negative rates if the economy takes another knock.
Buy Bitcoin
I bet stock market is at all time highs by the end of the year.
If you’re a professional portfolio manager and you’ve never heard of Coinbase, you should just be fired.
Once you really have a understanding of bitcoin it's hard to want to invest in anything else.
I would rather invest in my Health and Education. They last longer than a bullmarket.
Check out BTC 2.0, XRP.
Your thoughts on Financial Stability Board (FSB) recommendation on banning stable coins?
Carry a bar in your pocket. Storage right like the bartender working in your bar
What century is gold going into hyperspace?
💚🧡💙💛 These guys are acting like Final Fantasy 7 Remake didnt just get released. Calm down and let everyone finish it, takes 40hrs, before Bitcoin + Gold can rally again 💚🧡💙💛
Could you please invite Martin Armstrong to one of your interviews ? That would be great treat for us , thank you much .
These guys are obviously very smart and very experienced. But the bottom line is that ... they dont have a clue what is going to happen....
That’s the point. Consider all scenarios, the risk/reward and the likelihood of each.
Foreigners do have access to the Fed now though. That's what has dampened the dollar appreciation. 19:30
When the audio of the guest is better than that of the host..
Coming food shortage may take the usd to a quick spike, then cut it in half or more soon after. Downn it goes~
I wish this show and these guys were together today 4/17/2020 and see what they would have to say after the President of the United States is ready to re-open the American marketplace?
please show us your swimming pool Raoul :-)
Crypto is the future the old system is dieing like the globalist elites who built it 300 years It's time to let it die.
35:35 Didn't they just spend 400M on a crypto market cap website?
Hey whats up with the puppet in your intro? just curious.
Only a month later, its a different story!
Since this interview WTI OIL wicked down to negative territory...
What numbers is Dan Tapiero citing on china? Absolutely lunacy being spouted if he thinks CHina has any capacity to purchase asset given their dollar shortage. That would put them explicitly behold-ant to the US especially if the US re-fanagles it's supply chain out of China. Half their production capacity is misreported as well. Com on Dan.
Why are the markets reacting like this is over?! We have only just begun the economic downturn and this will be epic!
Delusional, wishful thinking to placate the masses. The question is, how long can you lead on the American public until they lose it?
Optimism bias
Alex Morgan the market is being bought by the FED via Blackrock... they are also buying corporate junk bonds.
Someone gonna buy, infinitely, regardless of fundamentals, printing doing so. You gonna stay in cash?
When all the currencies implode to toilet paper status, whats btc going to be priced in?
and gold what will it be worth an oz?
Guys this is all great but the argument on bitcoin: "if you had 5% of bitcoin in your portfolio in the past 5 years your performance would have doubled" - is ridiculous. Seriously? You could then say: "if you have 5% of TESLA in your portfolio in the past 2 years your perfomrnace would be .... higher". Who cares? I am not against bitcoin, thinking of buying a bit but this argument is just false. Otherwise, love the content!
Buying in oversold zone ealier or later bring a nice return in bitcoin. Less and less return, less and less volatility included in bitcoin. This is a new growing asset. One correlated with stocks but slowly decoupling becoming a bit closer to gold.
5% is ridiculous true, but on average there is a massive advantage too. It just depends when you jump in and if you avoid bubble periods. Bitcoin is not something to buy everyday.
@@ebrelus7687 Well I dont know... first of all, I don t see the correlation with gold, probably it is rather a negtive correlation when I look at charts. Secondly, I still don t see real big crowds using bitcoin for payments - which was the whole purpose of it. I would call it a great startup idea which has 5-10% probablility to succeed - something like Wework or such. To me the concept itself is less and less attractive but I happily accept to buy a bit if I sniff that the sentiment is positive for whatever reason. I still don t see a positive sentiment.
@@gergokovacs2815 FYI Bitcoin is already the dominating currency of the Dark Net. - The dark economy is huge and growing enormously since so-called unstoppable websites are now possible. There is a boom happening right now in on-ramps, making it easier than ever to use it and high interest rates to drive incentive to get it. Twitter has implemented bitcoin tips, and Bakkt is on its way with a consumer app. Tons of infrastructure is continuously being developed -- it just takes time to drive such a big change that is competing with the current financial system.
@@gergokovacs2815 Look man. Bitcoin in the end is competing with US dollars. Gold is nice a store of value but lacks a few important features to be used as money in the world we live in now.
Now the US dollar is getting unlimited quantitave easing, while the bitcoin network is about to get its quantitative hardening (halving event).
Money is all about trust, bitcoin is slowly but surely cementing itself as a trustworthy store of value as more and more different kinds of groups get interested in it. Firat the cryptographers, some venture capitalists, some tech guys (enter wave of technology driven cryptos, all forget the money aspect) and now we see macroguys and the gold crowd slowly getting it. It will just take some more time, money takea trust and time to change.
Thanks for the insights guys.
I started out trading forex last year and i must say it got better when i let Mr Reed Cooper manage my trading
(reeddcooper@gmail.com>>
What a coincidence i have been trading with him for more than 6 months and i always receive my payments when due
I recommend him to everyone , i haven't recorded any loss for the past 6 months thanks to him
His strategy is profitable and safe
I have been using his strategy for more than a month and stacking huge cash out
Churchill? Seriously? that just ruined the whole interview for me. the rest was very informative though. thanks for sharing.
Re: “not enough gold in the world”. Yes there is, it’s a simple matter of what the price is. At $100k/oz there’s plenty and gold could go asymmetric no?
Obviously you binge watch Gromen.
If funds allocated to gold there wouldn't be enough vis-a-vis quantity assuming there isn't hypothecation
At what point will the USA dollar lose it's reserve currency position? That can't be too far off.
I don't feel so bad after listening to these professionals go round the block and kind of get back to where they started still wondering if there isn't ?!somewhere!? to make ends meet in this market.
can anyone understand why jim rickards doesnt like bitcoin? he seems in line with what these guys say but with bitcoin hes just completely the opposite and i dont understand because rickards is extremely intelligent
Dan Tapiero: make your bed before streaming 😂
Raoul,,....button up your shirt, the men watching you are offended at the louche lounge lizard look while discussing the Fed.
klam77 - he’s in the Cayman Islands, no one buttons their shirts!😂
Fear. Cash in on it.
If you look at mortgage rates in much of europe and japan...he is probably correct. The US is headed that direction.
He said that Trump understands... something. Anything. 😂😂😂
What great historical perspective and experience that is so elegantly and expertly woven to make a tapestry both germane and halcyon to the present and beyond.
You should write romance novels.
What happens if the interest in the bitcoin networks disappears?
Why would people suddenly lose interest in bitcoin?
50 minutes into the video Dan says Trump understands interest rates and monetary policy in a deep way. How anyone can think Trump understands anything in a deep way is absolutely mind boggling.
Why not let corps go bust instead of bailing them out ?
The fed makes it up !!
Guys, has anyone noticed the subliminal puppet/clown at 0.00 literally in the first second of the show. I saw Derren Brown do this a few years ago in one of his programmes to "subliminally control his audience"!! Someone give us an explanation it's quite scary.
Raoul, can you invite me to your house for a drink?
Dinner bookings as a metric . that’s so out of touch
BSV is bitcoin
The next down move will only be the third leg of an Elliott Wave. two more after that
I find projection a bit dangerous, except the third and fifth legs are always hard to actually project a firm bottom to so I'd say if you did the measurements right ( I don't have time to check) this makes sense - just nobody please try to pick bottoms.
Ask yourself these questions:
1) What can you do with a bitcoin if there are no bitcoin miners? Can you buy or sell or even give away a bitcoin without a miner?
2) How do bitcoin miners get paid?
3) Will bitcoin miners continue to stay in business if they can't get paid?
4) Why do people think that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation?
5) What conflict do you see between your answers to 1, 2, 3 and 4 above that means that bitcoin will be worthless after the year 2140, if not before?
miners earn block subsidy + transaction fees, which is currently 8% or so of miner revenue.
block subsidy ends in 2140.
mining continues forever.
dlwatib I’ll be the only bitcoin miner if necessary on a phone. Question doesn’t make sense from that easy statement
As long as there are people using bitcoin, then they'll continue to pay miners via transaction fees.
Raouls just showing off his pimpin crib