How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
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- čas přidán 2. 08. 2024
- Imagine being furnished with generational wealth under one condition - you must choose only one asset allocation for your portfolio and stick with it for 100 years. Where would you even start? Chris Cole, CIO and founder of Artemis Capital Management, returns to Real Vision to answer that very question. He sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence to discuss the optimal portfolio construction for the long run, regardless of market condition. With uncertainty everywhere despite all-highs in the market, Cole discusses how to navigate Charlie Munger’s "death of the efficient frontier." He explains the allegory of the Hawk and Serpent and breaks down the construction of his 100-year portfolio. Cole and Booth provide viewers with the tools to traverse the "incremental death of alpha," and markets that are increasingly subject to the amplified volatility of increasingly passive investments. This piece is a much-watch for the pension fund or endowment that has no long-volatility exposure in their portfolio. Filmed on February 7, 2020 in Austin, Texas.
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How to Build a Recession-Proof Investment Portfolio (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole)
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One of the best interviews RealVision has ever done.
@@jasonbenham9338 Doesn't matter if he is brilliant if a "normal" investor can't replicate his strategies (assuming his backtests actually prove true in the real world going forward. Call me skeptical)
@@HumbleTrader001 right he back tested but what if his test methods are flawed?
Btw, he was proposing a asset allocation for pension funds,generational wealth for a 100 yr time frame not for an individual investor.
hingsight is 20/20
@@HumbleTrader001 the only part of his strategy that would be really hard to replicate is long volatility. The other four should be fairly simple for any investor willing to do some research.
@@cristhianmorales9175 There are commodity ETFs like DBC (and others with better expense ratio) but they are based on futures, and you would have to get out of them when they fall below a moving average. It's still an invitation to getting whipsawed, IMHO. Better off in a long-term portfolio that doesn't trade in and out of commodities.
This video changed the way I look at markets, I first watched two weeks ago and I am able to view our current crisis with a whole new lens
Too bad no real examples or metrics with parameters and meaning weren't presented. Im not complaining, but the investment market is so vast and the strategies implemented vary from investor to investor. Check out investorsedgenetwork
Koceila Ayouni
Agreed. More hard data to correlate talking/view points are always helpful. Enables viewers to look up and read the same sources on their own.
Anyone that needs him to prevent examples clearly hasn't been doing there homework. This guy was spot on!
@@jmc8076 Macro Voices is spoiling us.
John Archibald what’s the asset class allocation he recommends??each asset class or something like that??
Chris Cole completely changed my perspective on market risks with his research paper a year and a half ago. He’s a true innovator in understanding market volatility.
"these defensive assets are not for a rainy day, but for a rainy decade"
Lol.
💯
Outstanding interview! The analogies and explanations here is a masterclass, in my opinion. This is something all need to watch and listen. Well done. This has been one of the best I've seen.
Amazing! I read the paper a couple of weeks ago, and this just made everything way more fascinating. Congrats to the interviewer as well!
Great interview. Very smart man. Love it that we have a host that knows what she talks about. Greatly appreciated thank you
Superb! Thank you Ms. Booth
This is one of the best interview I’ve seen on Real Vision! Great interview. Maybe I’m just bias!
Listening to this for the first time on 19th May, it's like check, check, check. Very accurate forecast.
Thank you for validating it love it!
This interview was outstanding. I thank you both for such a candid conversation. I will admit I did not understand everything said, but I learned what I did not know which is empowering ... I now know more of what I need to study. I like his unconventional thinking !!!! with data to back it up.
"This is like 1999 and 2007 walk into a bar and hook up. You've got the leverage and you've got the mania"
"Pigs can fly if shot out of a large enough cannon. They always return to earth as bacon"
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Amazing interview! Thanks for the information!
That was awesome. The jargon at times was a little tough for me but got the gist of most of it. So happy to have metals in my portfolio 👍🏻💪🏻
I'll be watching this in the AM. Let's see how this advice holds up on Monday AM.
Awesome interview. Thank you.
Bravo! Great interview and insights!
What a brilliant discussion; mind-blown. It gave me a completely new perspective on a wide range of issues. Chris Cole actually responds to the issues, without dodging or positive spin. Thank you.
DDB is like having a rich, virtual auntie 🖤
Thank you for the quality content and sharing with non-subscribers. This type of content helps to open the eyes of many sheep.
Is a call-put straddle the only way to be long vol? Not really practical for the average person. It would be useful to know which fund managers follow this strategy so that ordinary people can invest with them.
real estate is a weird asset class because you are very much a captive of your government, they have the ability to tax you whatever they think you can afford, try not paying your property tax and you will find out who really owns your property
The only way around this problem is if everyone, simultaneously and collectively stopped paying taxes.
Not only property taxes, it's also the write off of of expenses, creating a net affect to lower your AGI on the investment income portion - LLC - under their shell company(ies). They also create a property management co. that also pays them a salary and also gets the write offs too
I own REITs and rent a beautiful apartment in Bogota Colombia for 250 USD a month, way better to live in real estate that you dont own and own real estate you dont live in
Vim Hill and all of the laws of the association ! And community cultures !
@@mitch5775 I was considering a similar arbitrage.
Wow! I can’t claim I understood all of that but I gained a ton of perspective from the parts I did. This is on another level from the other CZcams finance guru channels I’ve seen.
32:42 summarises the whole conversation ... I like the different approach though at 25:10 and 38:51.
Very interesting! What a great guest!
Woooow! For all of those who don't know the Hawk and the Serpent battle dates back from the Anunnaki and represent two forces that are in the competition since the beginning of our time. Hawk represents Enlil - Ruler of Heaven, while Enki is the ruler of Earth - Serpent. First, one is to rule with authority over humankind and aims to enslave us, and the other is interpreted as our creator and liberator. Search it up. Many scholars interpret this "battle" as the governing force behind all historical events and the symbolism is there to back it up. For example, nation-states (Roman empire, etc.) that represent the monopoly of power/force have a Hawk on coat of arms shield while tribal and shamanic cultures usually are associated with Serpents and Dragons (ex. Aztec's)
And what a discovery, you are a genius! The hawk and the serpent transmute into a Dragon - basically a snake with wings which is the name for your perfect portfolio!
The best ending to an interview I’ve seen this year! 💪🏼
Wow this guy has changed the way I look at portfolio management. For example, over the last two months if you had gone long volatility you could have easily hedged your portfolio and then made profit on the way back up by following a simple MA strategy with the SPY. I see what he means by ACTIVE long volatility. You're not using it as insurance per se, but actually playing the long, sharp trends. Do you guys notice the V shape taking place atm? I'm not saying that it will last. I may, it may not. But this video has added another dimension to my investment philosophy and I thank Chris & Danielle for bringing this to my attention!
Great Interview! Valuable information Thank you
I can tell these two make each other hot intellectualizing on finances. Thought that table may get proof tested. Awesome interview.
Great vid!
Great informative video. I learned a lot watching this
is hard to predict the market, one thing i know about real estate , if you get the location right, you are going to be all right, but but you got to have a budget and invest for long term is not a race, live a thankful live and help those come your way - GB great talk
Wow, these are 2 titans in finance, amazing conversation.
Great interview. A must see for anyone who has an interest in the financial market and investments.
Great interview. I'm slowly starting to understand the issues being discussed (long volatility, left tails.......).
Brilliant!
President Trump needs to appoint this Lady to a High Office. If only this country had more just like her. I think that
Danielle is what "Feminism" is supposed to look like. Class Act.
You can tell just by the way she sits.
Watched it twice - golden knowledge and eyes of the hawk! :)
Another awesome interview. For this layman new to finance.
Great interview. Thanks so much.
Thanks for a great interview with many interesting ideas.
As an aside, Chris reminds me of Peter Thiel in the way he speaks.
UGH I LOVE DANIELLE AND CHRIS....
Great interview! Thx from Brazil
Good usefull info 😊
Great video!
this is a brilliant interview
We've never lived in a great depression era. So we dont know what will actually happen when we have one.
I Dont have a lot of money. So I take my own
°Food & basic necessities for 2 years.
°Gold in small portion.
°Old silver coins.
°A small portion of stocks.
°No crypto and an almost zero balance in bank account :)
Wish me luck!
Same, with some rental housing.
@@RolfRolink Rental income is a great idea. Indirectly related, see Georgism.
Wish you luck 👍
Chris Cole is economic and financial genius.
Absolutely
Danielle, you and Chris sound more like Harry Dent than I ever imagined. Chris is describing Harry’s Spending Wave he developed and described in 1989. Although I love the analogy of the serpent and the hawk.
Perfect timing 2/20/2020 Game Over and now we work toward 1965’
Wow. And that was just before Covid19 hit harder. Precise. Swift.
I guess during the recession the defensive sectors are doing better comparing to the others. Diversification of the portfolio is not only related to the sector but it take in consideration the Inflation rates, correlation between industries, different risks (i,g, Systematic, Non-systematic, interest rate risks...). Determination of risks may help to predict return and how we can build that optimal portfolio. Portfolio management style is one of the success keys, adoption of an adequate strategy including mastering of equity management ( Growth, value, sector rotation, Credit quality...).
Top interview
calin onofrei Agreed
Great!
I watched this in Dec 2019 and again June 2020, and I see we are clear which wing of the hawk, strategy is in play, and Cole, how interesting, ( not a the physic AI?) talking Roosevelt's policy..
Thank you, hope more people like you will manage pension funds. Last years greediness crossing all red lines
Great interview!
20 mins in, I can tell you it is worth your time to watch this. Chap has stunning analytic and language skills. Are his conclusions right>?
Great interview. Do you have any suggestions for information on how an average person could build the Dragon portfolio for themselves?
This was brilliant. Especially in the light of events of the last couple of months - how many of these potential scenarios have already played out so soon.. extreme volatility, retirement funds get caned, inflation, buying up of bonds and funds (3 trillion to back door-bail out Wall St looks like nothing), liquidity momentum trade, value has no apparent meaning, riots in the streets, secular trend anything but up.
Thanks for the insight into this portfolio strategy. I've always thought these standard retirement fund asset allocations looked wrong with stacked risk eg 75% equities and property exposure - not properly diversified at all.
This guy looks like a young version of Mel Gibson.
Sounds and talks exactly like edward Snowden too
Just finish her book. Fed Up. Good stuff.
Excellent analysis
He sounds like Edward Snowden.
For me, it's Peter Thiel.
@@honestbajan6877 Same.
All the smart people are trying to mimic like Peter Thiel. There's a small army of Peter Thiels
Love her voice , serious yet smooth
25:12 , thank me later.
Hans, Thank u
I'm not going to wait until later. Thank you!
Thanks . . . I'd go even heavier on the commodities and gold at this particular point. And lighter on equities and stay the F away from US bonds.
thanks
Well, Thanks!
Danielle should be running the Fed!!!
Just wow
this dude doesnt blink
Great interview. She felt in love!
Great interview! Danielle is so intelligent. I love when she speaks but she is a great listener as well. I cannot go back to see the morons on CNBC. They never let their guest talk.
Wow Real vision is a great place to learn so many things. where are they find this smart people . Amazing Real Vision. i wish become a international vision.
fransua mtl where’s the total compensation for unearned income for certificates of people enslaved to fed ? capitalism true scam ? Unraveling in code ? Redistribute ? 23 Trillion ? I doubt that ! Theoretically, debt after free labor for how many years exactly ? Try 3 to 400 years wow ? What a landscape for financial destruction. Financial literacy updated ! Ok at least it’s still a WAR on Value. Price discovery? School ? Price factor ? Intrinsic Value is Slavery ?
Any strategy that doesn't include the crashes in the 1920's is borderline dishonest. Used back test of only 40 years is wrong. You need back test 120 years.
Did he have the available data?
The last 40 years is the financial maturation of the Boomers. History is not straight line growth, not even straight line trend.
@@miketrafford4394 Oh Really?
Mike Hardwicke, From some of the books I've read, it seems that we do have ample economic data going back far into the 1880s.
sounds like a guy selling investment funds. 4:49 in this asset allocation, he has volatility in the portfolio (makes sense) how was he investing in "volatility" in the early century?
It feels like this guy has literally seen every event in the future
I could watch that again.
Would your typical 3-6 months GIC at a commercial bank qualify under the 'fixed income' segment of that artemis portfolio graph? plz help I'm a newb.
How do you get hold of the paper that he wrote?
sounds fascinating...although the conditions of the next 100 years are going to be vastly different than the past 100. A bit like monday morning quarterbacking with all the backtesting, picking the optimal scenario and tada, there is the magic formula
I listened to this while I was working. I need to give this a rewatch and pay attention. Interesting times we're living in.
Hope she can tell us her PREDICTIONS as to HOW LONG will this next deflationary period will last so as to take advantage of the uptake after; or what should we be looking for as indicators to see the turn other than the normal graph of the Dow or the S&P 500, as those are deceiving and can be temporary in their uptake.??
Please give us your views on how long it'll last, the deflation. Obviously this FED debt produced growth is not sustainable.
Thanks ahead of time
PS: I was surprised that "buy the dip" would get you broke if seen as a 90 year timetable. I was sure he'd say it would make you rich. And noticing that it would work only in the last TEN years of QE was also a surprise.
46:55 "We had lunch. There were riots in the streets of Athens . . . you know, blah blah blah".
Thanks for the videos. CZcams has been blocking RV from my feed for some reason.
we meet again
Oliver touché
Oliver my kindred spirit
Work around it. Be pro active!
Are index funds like Vanguard's the way to go on the way up after deflation for a non-expert???
How long will deflation lasts or what to look for as indicators??
Thank you.
GGR TheMostGodless From this interview you could draw the conclusion that risk assets do very poorly for 20 years or so. That would be a deflationary period. That would include stocks bonds real estate and unemployment would be high.
How can I get one of those Artemis coffee mugs?
I swear this guy is ai.
Cool?
Bang Arang Elon musk and Kawhi Leonard are A I also.
🤣
Connor
HE LIVES IN THE BASEMENTS OF WALL STREET, DOESNT NEED FOOD JUST LIVES OFF TRADES AND A 12V BATTERY
Going long volatility is expensive over the long run. Wonder how they fix that problem?
He could have summed up the first 5 minutes in 2 sentences.
Buy Gold. That is the actual summary.
22:55 perfect gist
When Chris talks about volatility in a model asset portfolio, what is the definition? What is he referring to? Never mind, he explains starting
at 33:18.
Every one is talking about buying the dip but noone mentions the dipiridipiri dip
Time to review the axiom 'Don't fight the FED'. Seems the FED has finally lost control, so the assets that have been financially suppressed by the FED may get a chance to bloom. Gold may finally have its day in sunshine but maybe 20% in portfolio may be overdoing it cause even a relatively small hedge fund an manipulate gold price on a specific day.
In the picture of the hawk and serpent, the bird depicted is not a hawk at all. It's a phoenix. Which, if anything, would add even more allegorical vitality as the phoenix is literally the symbol of cyclical regeneration.
Maybe you missed the point of the interview.
The hawk is the highest hope and the snake is the lowest form of evil. According to Thus Spoke Zarathustra
Where did the "magical" 7.25% return come from?
You watched the south park episode where they make economic decisions by cutting a chicken's head off right?
When talking about real estate he didn’t mention cash flow at all which is why people lever into real estate.
Stocks have cash flow, too.
I have an easier solution: Invest in mars where the FED's tentacles have yet to reach!
stacked. yum