Certain Recession Mutating into Possible Depression (w/ Nouriel Roubini)
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- čas přidán 2. 08. 2024
- Dr. Nouriel Roubini returns for an in-depth analysis of the coronavirus crisis. Roubini explores coronavirus-related destruction in the real economy, the impact and shortcomings of the containment effort, and his view of the risks caused by an underlying debt bubble. He also explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington the individual elements of the policy response with a special focus on monetary policy and the US dollar.
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Certain Recession Mutating into Possible Depression (w/ Nouriel Roubini)
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Real Vision Finance what was the date of the interview? Thank you
This interview aired on our platform on April 1st!
Thank you Real Vision 🙏
How did we not see inflationary shock in the great recession?? There has been asset bubble inflations everywhere! That's why the growth in wealth disparity. Inflation
Hey Ash - It would be brilliant to do a follow up of this interview with Dr. Doom as there is so much of data that has come out since this discussion and the rally in the market. It would be amazing to know more about his views now and how he assesses the Fed bazooka, Jobs data and the market rally.
Hats off/Kudos to the host, who did not interrupt Nouriel irrespective whether hes right or wrong. Great Job
He could not get a job on CNBC. They interrupt continually.
i wish he would of interrupted, he is annoying.
@@user-jm9ep3zp5g Then don't listen....problem solved!
I fully aggree with you...
First time listened to Roubini... He started like a train and still cant see the tail. Unstoppable non stop insights and wisdom. Exactly what the Dr ordered...
Yah. Dr Doom.
Dan Milbourne
Maybe but some things are hard to put a bow on. He comes from an extensive experience. Google his bio/CV.
He's a tool. He thinks this pandemic is for real. Are you kidding me?
@@jmc8076, some people cant see their nose even if its right infront of the face. Winter is coming! Crossing my fingers i have already had Covid19! Deep deep sadness knowing what i know from my medical knowledge! Vaccine unlikely to be timely! I dont think second wave has started yet. 🤞
It's so exciting, I have to listen to it twice. Very emotional. We are living in very dangerous times.
Yes, we are. Thomas you may be interested in exploring the book The Great Waves of Change
Dr. N. Roubini seems to be the only economist who accurately paints the dire economic picture facing us. Thank you for posting this very informative interview.
Vision 20/20 watch Jim Rickards and mike Maloney and Harry dent
@@TheCoolbreeze45 Harry Dent predicted two years ago that gold will drop to $800 or so and silver $7, if my recollection is correct!
Vision 20/20 correct. I find it helpful to hear several different perspectives describing the same foundational problems and then listen to different rationals and analysis on what the market may do and what consequences will precipitate and when. You obviously are a bright mind that enjoys big ideas. What is your take on the dollar and gold’s purchasing power? timing of rapid market change? Melt up or meltdown?
We’re in a DEPRESSION, most people just don’t know it YET!
I'm an idiot and even I KNOW we're in a depression
over 30 million unemployed last 4 weeks with malls closed til August.
I'm not living in a depression. That's too bad you are. We are nowhere near the situation of a great depression like in the 1920s. It may be in the future, but certainly not now, not where I am. Where are you living?
@@kpetro1675 if you're not in debt .and keep you're job . You wont notice.
just stop being depress
@@juanok2775 ok Juan
This is an incredible interview. The best interview that I have heard on the current situation. Dr. Roubini covered all the asset classes, currencies and liquidity, the worldwide macro view, effects of governmental response, correlations and historical comparisons. The interviewer asked all the right questions and then "got out of the way" so that Dr. Roubini could elaborate in great detail and explain where the global economy is heading from here. This is a "must see".
"It walks and quacks like a duck - it's helicopter drop." Epic.
The only guy speaking sense during very difficult and trying times. What a great interview. The interviewer also did an awesome job, cnbc take note!
FYI, Mar 31, 2020 was the original air date on RealVision.com
It's watermarked in the top left screen.
The best part is when he gives numbers from China and says they might be lying. That made me laugh
This shut down has established a precedent for them to get even more draconian and the sheeple won't say a word.
We are lying as well. You think the mighty USA can’t get test kit?
Very insightful as much of Real Vision - When experts like Dr. Roubini are starting to sound like Peter Schiff that's when we know we have some serious issues ahead...
I have been following Roubini and Schiff for many years and both of them have been critical of QE, budget deficits, etc all along. They have not been so much different in their philosophy.
@@honestdudeguru he doesn't sound like he is critical of QE
Schiff and Roubini are both doom and gloomers so hearing them both talking doom and gloom at the same time makes me all the more bullish.
tunaman916 ! Dr. Roubini May be right in my opinion because of his Long experience in economic affairs of the world !...
Thank you for being a nice interviewer and not interrupting your guest. Dr Roubini had so many interesting and insightful thoughts to share. Please invite him back again.
In my opinion , as an investor , there is an important difference between the Fed ( or the BOE ) buying T Bills on the secondary market and the Fed buying T Bills directly from the Treasury. Investors , by definition have saved the value in the T Bill & have a propensity to save and reinvest into the proceeds of sale into non Treasury assets such as precious metals , shares or investment grade commercial paper. . On the primary market the Treasury issuance proceeds of sale will be spent in its entirety as the US & UK are running fiscal deficits. It is for this reason that , to the surprise of many commentators QE 1 et sub did not result in inflation as the electronically printed cash received was reinvested not spent in the economy . The difference is therefore due to the different propensity to save between the Treasury and the T Bill owning private investor .
The financial industry "experts" are not like those in the sciences, medicine and engineering. That was the first hard lesson that I learned when I started investing.
Someday youll realize that they are closer than you think...
Application of science and reason always has a subjective tilt, we get to the truth by trying and failing many times.
We still believe in Einsteins model of the universe ffs. 100 years later still no dark matter detected.
That's all you need to know to start with.
Next: Remember that markets are moved by gigantic Commercial banks (JPM, Goldman S, BoA), humongous Investment firms (BlackRock, Berkshire H) and the Federal Reserve.
" They think the market will end higher at then of the year, I dont know what they are smoking"
😂
Dr. Doom
Brilliant interview thank you, guys!!
Dr Roubini's explains the present scenario so explicitly and expressly, with so much sense that even any simpleton can understand what is happening. I am going to watch it again.I love the words and expression he uses. With demand and supply going south, how can capital market and assets go north, unless its manipulated to help the 1%.
Little known fact Nouriel can hold his brief underwater for 71 minutes
The smartest guy in economics!
This is long...I'll pick the remainder up later. Roubini is one of my favorites!
Awesome interview!
Recession vs Depression is time. a depression is a long drag out recession, instade of 30 to 50% drop it's 80% crash.
A recession is when your neighbor lost his job. It's a depression when you lost your job.
Haha.
we are living in a pushed up depression since 2008, a fake economy
If you want more velocity, bail out poor and regular people.
One of the most prescient monetary commentators
He is 100% right in everything he said. This will play out over the next 10-20 years
Loading debt on americans with these forbearance loans and othrr loans will just sink the American consumer more, and insure defaults and huge foreclosures over the next 12 months. Resulting in mass new homelessness numbers.
"Crisis, bubble, crash, markets down, impact, depression, worse, debt, destruction, coronavirus"
All these words spoken by him with that strong accent makes me scared shitless.
To paraphrase ab an hour in - "With no liquidity 'they' were selling everything - stocks, bonds, gold - there was no safe place - 55:08 - Once the Fed realized there was a problem with liquidity and provided it to backstop everything (70 billion/day) and nearly a trillion dollars overall in 7 days - safety returned" - This is a HUGE problem, and they think it's 'fixed' - People like ME and MANY others don't care about the short term safety of cash or gold - I would buy MORE and KNOW it's a great investment - I can only hope people that are leveraged to the hilt, will need to sell what's liquid - I WOULD LOVE TO BUY 3 digit gold! The Fed does nothing but make weak hands look strong and support the Potemkin Village. Now the banks, quants, hedgefunds, global sovereign funds, and Ivy League endowments - can re-leverage ALL OVER AGAIN - and wait for THEIR NEXT BAILOUT AFTER THEY BLOW UP THEIR BALANCE SHEETS. I predict molotov cocktails will be the response if this continues.
Audit then End The Fed.
Whether you believe in this or not the virus isn't listening and the outcome will depend on whether we have been living in a false paradise or not.
About time you guys had him on, lol. Nice 👍
Love this guys insight !!!!!!
Very informative. Thank you
What a informative interview. Great episode!
Mr. Roubini is very generous with his information.
"I don't know what they are smoking" 😆
This man is a genius. All he says is profound and true. I listen to him
Hi, check the last Corbett report. Of all the CV deaths in Finland only 2 of them are under 60 years of age. The average age of CV deaths are 81 years. Note, the average age of death is 76 years. Do your own math.
Excellent interview!
🕶👍
Huge respect to Dr Roubini
He is all right
Great interview, I like how they let Nouriel talk with very few interruptions. Can you guys please get Richard Duncan on the show.
The transition of wealth is definitely going to happen. But the question is, how will this effect the stability of the world, and the quality of life for the average person.
is that a piano or a harpsichord? I like getting many angles of perspective and personally like the views of Mike Maloney, Jim Rickards, David Morgan, etc. My liberty beliefs are with Ron Paul, Larken Rose, Doug Casey, etc.
Wow. That was jam packed. A financial education in one hour.
Anyone knows where to find an overview of all the money that has been printed by central banks worldwide?
Brilliant interviewing thanks
Are you guys calculating the fact that information moves thousands of times faster today than it did before the internet? It seems to me that you can’t really compare what happened on 1920 to 2020 if your not accounting for the movement of instant information. Also there was no comparison in the amount of globalized trade that existed then as compared to today. I don’t think that these pre internet examples really apply to today’s environment. Am I crazy? Thoughts?
Dude this guy and the Peter Schiffs of this world crawl out of their rocks once in a decade still thinking we are in the seventies. They get their limelight for a few months or a couple years and then crawl back to under the rock another decade.
While under their little rock hugging their gold slabs and tobacco shares they recharging their hate for the world they no longer understand.
When rent for a 1 bedroom apt on east 78th st is 120 a month like i had in 1976 people will get by.
This guy has a lot to say. I feel like he could have gone for another couple hours
He is a streaming flow of consciousness. Small doses can be tolerated. Then turn it off.
@@vcoonrod I think he almost puts a spell on me - I could easily listen to another "episode"
The virus was just the pin. This is all about bondholders not wanting to accept losses on their balance sheets. I agree with Ron Paul. Let the bondholders get whacked and the insolvent corporations go bankrupt and let the market clear its excesses. It's coming anyways. Employees and their pensions will remain and the assets of the companies go into stronger hands. Why reward incompetent management teams? I understand it will be painful but its coming anyways.
All restaurants will soon be Taco Bell just like Demolition Man
6 point plan for new banking system: 1. All Central banks and their right to create currency abolished. 2. All debt owed to Central banks extinguished 3. All assets and interests owned by central banks and central banks owners returned to respective governments i.e. people. 4. A National bank created for each country and owned by citizen tax payers with exclusive right to create national currency 5. All banks nationalised. 6. Banks return to be utilities.
A grim and sobering outlook indeed.
We never recovered from the 2008 recession. 17 million Americans filed for unemployment in three weeks, and fake stock market soared.
We have entered the beginning stages of the GREATER DEPRESSION.
Dr. Doom and gloom! In GOLD I TRUST!!!
Dr. Realist, please. Just watch how this plays out.
@@christianmolick8647 I actually agree with what he has been saying, that's why I'm all in, in GOLD!
It’s just yellow metal. It’s not practical to buy food, goods or services with. The value of it, is always quoted in U.S. $
I paused the video long enough to sell some of my stock. Don't make the same mistake. That stock went up the next day.
I'm 90% in cash anyway... waiting for the markets to reflect reality before I buy one more share.
Prices were too high at the beginning of the year and they're even further out of whack now!
@@antonystringfellow5152 Prices now are even higher because share prices didn't fall taht much as the real economy. Therefore shares are now more expensive than in February.
Antony Stringfellow cash is trash!!
Fed is buying everything. That will prop up the market, but create inflation. Your currency will have less buying power than it does today.
He is talking about long distance.
Your guests were asked if the stock market in the bubble few month ago and he said No No No
Great info.😇
Really hard to believe that the market could recover in a V shape manner, the economy and overall macro are still deteriorating.
Never fight the fed
The depth of this analysis is greater than I have heard elsewhere. Thanks for Dr. Nouriel Roubini for sharing it and Real Vision for making it available.
Even experts can be wrong sometimes and this guy is definitely wrong. All of the mass pumping of dollars into the world economy will boost the stock market because it will take more cheaper dollars to equal the value of those stocks.
US is world reserve currency. Can print as much money as they want.
Wall Street and hedge funds will take the money from Fed and short the market as earnings collapse 50% plus. Fed saving the day is a myth...
Nouriel, you wonder what they are smoking, those who are calling for a V shaped recovery? I'll tell you what they're smoking. It's called Pump and Dump. Think of this: if you initially lost money in this unprecedented collapse and if you can, why not to try to drive prices back up so that you can get out at a higher price point!
Prices/Valuations now are even higher because share prices didn't fall that much as the real economy. Therefore shares are now more expensive than in February. I think that many people forget this.
Even with all the trillions dollars packages try to help or restart the economy, it will take many many years to be at where we were before the pandemic. If anyone remember how the housing bubble was back in 2008 in the US. It caused the
US economy into the recession and spread throughout the world within months. This time around is like the whole world having the housing bubble trouble. This is going to be 100 times worst!
"The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today." - Joseph Campbell
Don't fight the Fed is what many will say. They are going to print until there is no respect for our countries viability. Earnings are right around the corner, EARNinGS? What a joke.
Is it fair to say that when the fed prints money to provide liquidity, what it is doing is exchanging treasury bonds held by banks and other lending institutions for cash?
This is truly the Financial market sectors... " END OF DAYS " !!!
Wow!
He calls for a depression every fkin year though lol
He correctly called 6 of the last 2 recessions? Something like that?
And yet..the global economy has stopped and the grocery store is limiting how much you can buy. There will be significant unemployment and business failures. What part of this don't you get? At what point do you start using your brain and connecting events?
@@petedivine I didn't say there won't be a depression. I simply stated that he calls for one every year. What part of the English language don't you get? At what point do you consider going back to school lol
when printing machine run all pushed back
zahir2k even a broken clock is right twice a day
Thank you for this extremely informative interview with a giant in his field.
For ordinary Americans who are just making a Living it’s going to get worse and worse as day by Day poverty and privations sets in and money becomes less and less and debt and poverty becomes more and more so the longer the Depression goes on and it’s going to last years things will get worse and worse not better at least in the 1929 Depression period people could afford to feel like it would eventually get better but we don’t have that Luxury now it’s not going to be better.
As a health care practitioner, I applaud your realistic advice. I would add the need for an army of epidemiologist to do contact tracing as part of an exit strategy. Also PPE is desperately needed.
Also the average time to a vaccine is 20 years. The fastest so far was four years for mumps vaccine in the 1960s
Well, we have new technology now, so we can hope for 18 months
It's *"Doctor"* Nouriel Roubini to you!
two weeks ago this guy said: "mark my word, in two weeks US will have more cases than Italy" ... now he says: "mark my word, this year it will be a war between US and Iran" .. well fck
What will it take for Dr. Roubini to teach me economics????
if it walks and quacks like a duck, its a helicopter drop
What about the fiscal policy response - should Governments reduce taxes and is inflation going to escape and go viral
Foreign countries will probably confiscate and nationalize any bold mine they can get, imo. With what he is saying in the future when push comes to shove and the smaller countries cant pay on their debts. 103.26 he implies that.
what a man, who can speak with passion, such a complex matter.
He is intense.
He needs to smoke a bowl before his head explodes.
kind of think this is scaremongering; not that mad about it, we were due a downtime. global system needed reorienteering, political order was not aligned with realities
You speak as if the conclusion is in...we have MILE and MILES to go.
Well, Mark Cuban was buying up the market just weeks ago seeing all the deals out there to buy. However, he came out today and said that he's raising cash. What changed his mind? Maybe he's seeing the same thing Roubini is seeing? Just this time, on the front lines with his NBA and Shark Tank businesses.
Rubini is genius!
The share buybacks is more the reason to not bail anyone else
Robini is an nyu professor living in nyc. The governor and mayor had no problem with society conducted as usual in march so stop the political diatribe .
When deciding on who I should listen to I always do a quick search on the individual's net worth. Anyone know how much Roubini is worth?
Not enough for me to listen to his pearls of boredom.
This is the best, realist, international political economy analysis out there!
How are you going to open up Italy? The virus doesn’t go away.
Notice the doll that flashes during the intro -- what's up with that? It's only in some videos
A key difference between QE and emergency helicopter drop/MMT (not full cycle MMT) is that in the latter the bonds / bills may NOT be paid back (i.e. it is a grant by the Fed and not a loan/bond, i.e. pure monetary base creation) and the bonds will have to be written down by the Fed on its balance sheet. Else it is infinite balance sheet expansion with expectation of the principal being repaid back by the Treasury to the Fed.
Great interview . The accent and the shouting made it hard to understand until I used captions .
Off all the financial predictions Nouriel Roubini is dead on with whats to B expected. Wow a true insightful genius 2 thumbs up !
And I'm rich beyond believe !!!
I notice this was recorded on April 1. Is this forecast an April Fool's joke? Ofcourse not. Just a coincidence.
Roubini is now an epidemiologist as well. Is there anything the man can't do?
rumco LOL!
Physical work ?
I don’t think the guy on the right ever took a breath. Dang nonstop
bue fixe!
Wow....Broken clock or broken mirror....or both
This is probably the best time to make money. Waiting for the big sell.