The Coming Collapse: Charts Speak Louder Than Words (w/ Raoul Pal and Peter Brandt)
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- čas přidán 29. 04. 2020
- Peter Brandt, Founder of Factor LLC, speaks to Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, about the dramatic price action he’s witnessing in equities, commodities, currencies, gold, and bitcoin. A veteran technical analyst, Brandt tells Pal about the charts on his radar and how they are informing his investing perspective. Raoul discusses how he interprets these chart patterns through the lens of dominant market narratives and shares how they are informing his macro framework. Filmed on April 15, 2020.
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The Coming Collapse: Charts Speak Louder Than Words (w/ Raoul Pal and Peter Brandt)
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You covered every topic except the Industrial War Complex. The MSM and Politician's now have started chirping about virus "China Blame Game". South China sea looks like a hotspot. What would war do to the MKT's? Thoughts?
simpleledger:qp4hu09yrk2uwm85c7sfkztyp6zdn2942cn7e2yyv4
I really do wonder what the value of technical analysis is when everything is fake.
Like being a sports commentator on Wrestle-Mania.
It's like being a meteorologist in a Sims game.
@@mrtimharrington Why would chartist rules apply if someone powerful with a mouse is deciding what is going to happen in the market?
@@banginghats2 charts work because people use them. even if you're intentionally moving big money around to manipulate a market, you'd still want to maximize your return by having the rest of the market that follows charts helping you push the market in the desired direction. Even manipulated prices follow trends+fib levels to some degree, and support/resistance still applies.
Technicals in my opinion help identify retail moves, and point out liquidity zones where institutions are likely to make re touches
Do you know why Mr. Brandt is so easy and pleasant to listen to? Because he leaves his ego at the door and relaxingly espouses truth.
The pure chartists like Peter most of the time miss the turning points. Almost all pure chartist I know missed to see this crash coming. I remember Peter being very bullish before the crash. The best way to analyze the markets is a combination between reading charts and understanding the macro fundamentals.
Freight volumes trends sniffed this out before even repo blinked.
Couldn't agree more!
I always look at the fundamentals first, technicals second. Only when both line up, I trade.
So no further crash investment ABC?
Kyle Dunn if you followed freight volumes as a trigger you’d have made numerous bad decisions over the years. It’s convenient in retrospect here, not in general.
The macro fundamentals seem to be a much deeper study. Just trading the technicals seems like it can keep you active in more markets even if you're not as well informed/positioned as someone who's put in the time understanding a more specific sector.
*Time Stamps*
🤖 1:15 macro view on what kind of timeline for the Economic situation today
🤖 7:06 what could we expect if the head and shoulders plays out
🤖 9:38 how do you see commodity complexes playing out (oil)
🤖 13:15 thoughts on FX markets
🤖 17:15 Dollar / Yen chart up or down?
🤖 22:48 Fixed income
🤖 27:35 Gold and Bitcoin (remember air date - Btc moves fast)
Ron Burgandy 👍🏼 🙏🏼
Life as a retired hedge fund manager in the Caymans looks good, no disrespect.
@ Oh you won't be bored once SWHTF :)
He’s the guy running the Cayman Islands Offshore Holding Corporation
Until a hurricane comes along.
@733Rafael right on.
Hyperinflation on needs, Deflation on wants.
Bingo!
15 bucks for a loaf of bread but you can buy a used boat for change.
I don’t think central banks will let house prices decline much
Give a child a silver coin today
Well said.
Real Vision is one of the best ways for noobs like me to get an education in finance.
Raoul in particular (but real vision yes). Also worth listening to is Mike Maloney, Harry Dent (NOT a gold guy). Many others too maybe useful like Nuggets News and Greg Mannarino. And obvs the normal news plus the FT !
Financial times is semi woke garbage these days, I wouldn't waste time with it. Bloomberg and WSJ are better.
You're a plonker of you think that mate. I'm not saying trust anything you read implicitly, always need healthy suspicion of everything but there's some obvious places to avoid.
Very true. I like George Gammon as well, though. Doing everything on the white board “in three simple steps”, does a lot in visualizing what he’s talking about.
If you dont have a plan, you’ll become part of someone else his plan.
Rauol, can’t you buy a microphone ??? You run a media company!!
normally the audio is better, i think it''s the connection quality
He should run a VPN for better connection!
Can't you spell his name right??? You can see it in the title!!
Pizza, it's great to catch up with you!
Love this channel. Thanks for the great content, guys.
2 absolutely brilliant people. Incredible content ♥
'including a broken toaster' lol
When earnings collapse, what new multiples and prices will stocks trade at?
WHY AREN'T ANY GOVERNMENT WORKERS BEING LAID-OFF?!
Thank you!
A lot of valuable charts.
Both entertaining and enlightening.
why does peter brandt has 2 cigarettes stuck in his ear
African tribal earrings
Hahaha
Thanks for the laugh
Peter says “what? I can’t hear you I have cigarettes in my ears”
He's trying to quit
Could it be that Fed dollar liquidity is a function of offsetting existing and pending loan losses?
I can learn more on CZcams than at a University.
*For free.*
support em ... dont want everything for free
34:32 - is perfect
Thank you, appreciate the knowledge.
Great content. I'll buy a decent mic for the next time if you cannot afford it!
Thanks for the tip - just taken out a long on the 5 year T bond with a stop a little below the trend line. :)
Thanks guys for the words of wisdom. I also share similar view what you just said, reaffirming me with my trading ideas. This is probably the best free advice on the internet for traders of all sorts.
Thank you so much for putting it these types of videos🙏
One of the few channels I fully respect and trust, thanks guys.
Or the market could drop a bit and then go nowhere for 15 years.
Kurt Holloway first millennials were priced out of the housing market, and now they're denied the stock market 😂 that's just perfect 👌
Love it how this guy looks to be broadcasting from his walk in wardrobe!
2 Class Acts!
Thanks for sharing with us!
Great interview. Nice to listen to two guys that understand the markets and just give their honest assessment with out all the hysteria. Thanks!
HOW DOES THIS COMPARE TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE DINOSAUR CIVILIZATION PETER?
It's worse!! There will be negative amount of humans left. Zero dinosaurs is better than negative humans.
it was bitcoin that killed the dinosaurs so...
THANK U , Raoul my wife and I are follow u in your hard work and dedication 💗
Out of topic, but what's with the quick flash of the creepy doll from Anabella at the intro credits???
Where there’s smoke, there could be liquid nitrogen...
Laurent Lefebvre That’s vapor...like the US GDP 😂
where there's smoke, someone is smoking nearby!?
FYI Peter "Strong opinions, weakly held" is also known as a weak opinion. An opinion's strength is gauged by how it's held.
I can't see why anyone would take their money out of the market when it is crashing. If he had taken it out beforehand, id think he was eithher a genius, or a Senator.
I took everything out of the market in February, just before the crash. It was OBVIOUS that the virus would wreck the world economy and markets. I don't understand how "smart money" folks didn't see it.
If the head was in February at 29k, the Dow dropped 10k, then came up 5k and he sold, then he thinks it is on the shoulder, and ready to drop another 10k. That is what he basically said.
@@gorthorki yeoh very obvious...we have had virus scares many times. This was showing to be no different from SARS.
@@zarni000 you are infectious with no symptoms, way different
@@robbby4011 it's not that. 5 infected from one. Only real difference. Irs more about what we didnt know about it so erring on side of caution was way we went.
thanks for your work
Regarding inflation vs. deflation. I would have to agree that the charts are indicating, near term, a deflationary scenario. I'm actually leaning more toward a state of stagflation if the supply chains are compromised once more by a second wave of covid. Additionally, the decrease of monetary velocity within the economy as people become reluctant consumers in a time of uncertainty will attribute to deflation/stagflation as well. Yes, the argument for hyper-inflation holds water. However, I speculate that water will be sitting in the bucket for at least another year or two. That is, of course, assuming we don't go to war prior to resolving the current economic destruction caused by the virus. There was a study done and written about by Bloomberg illustrating how rates in a pandemic tend to fall, and rates during war time tend to rise. Therefore, if we enter a war before heading into an inflationary period. Well, at that point, it may just be too much to bear.
Even then no inflation. There will be a horrific dollar shortage
Rather than H/S pattern, I would say a stronger case can be made for a massive wyckoff distribution range on the s&p and the Dow that is in it’s final stage. Last point of supply here finishes off the last shoulder of the h/s being discussed. This is confirmed by volume patterns. This is a massive range with weak lower support levels and high sell volumes and divergence long before reaching upper resistance levels. My take
Just before Venezuela went off the cliff the market was red hot, history is rhyming.
Man I was just researching Venezuela last night. 1oz of gold is 211million bolivars as of yesterday. Inflation is unbelievable there.
There is a difference..dollar is the world currency
Peter Brandt is a legend!!
I love this guy. And his interesting ear rings. In Alabama I could not pull that look off but this guy is that cool.
You don’t like the Apple “Something About Mary’s”? 🤣
If or when fiat currency is replaced by a new gold standard, what role is there left for bitcoin ?
Please improve audio quality at your end Raoul
Raoul, you could benefit from a better camera. We are missing the subtle reactions ;)
How hard is it to make a graph of something that seems to go up or down in value?
Which pixel is Raoul?
Man, that Zoom background for Raoul is epic :) I mean, Peter's closet looks nice too!
@Thomas Tidley “Peter’s closet” haha
Thomas Tidley it’s his restaurant, he discussed it in a previous video
Is anyone willing to give me the quick version of why you want to be long on negative interest rates? Doesnt the chart go down? Does it have some unique feature of paying off if it breaks zero?
1300 in the SP, thats scary AF
TY.
..
I agree that the settings are consistent with deflation. Zero interest rates, let alone the absurdity of negative rates, can only survive in circumstances of declining prices and economic stagnation.
great stuff
Love the conversation 👍
What's the difference between Peter Brandt and Bob Loukas?
This demonstrates the huge rewards people get for adding nothing of value to society. This society is in the end game of crashing as long as speculators become billionaires.
which equity at the end is he referring to having another peak?
No trespassing squared, gotta ask?
Think Gold might retrace back to test 1350 to retest the previous resistance level like in 2008 - in a liquidity crunch everything might implode as people sell it all in the next leg down.
Could be! But that is extremely pessimistic
Man I hope so, I will buy even more just like Jim Rogers said he would do.
Peter Brandt remembers the tulip mania like it was yesterday
Great stuff
This is unacceptable. we have a legend of a trader peter brandt stuck in his shoe closet making millions :)
Commodities can't trade below production costs forever. Something has to give. Either prices go back up or producers find a way to cut costs or a combination of both. The Yen is a safe haven currency. It makes perfect sense for it to pop higher if our equities crash
33:20 btc moon is there a btc and S&P 500 correlation
Sure, it ranges from -1 to 1
Hi quality content
I appreciate the “narrative”. I do think that ultimately we are heading there and all that has been put forward makes sense to me except 2 things. Gold and bitcoin. If this massive deflation happens, gold and bitcoin will most likely suffer as well. They will probably recover better or do less bad than other assets but in a scenario of total wealth destruction those should go too especially by the fact that your denominator is USD and most indications are for a massive bull run in USD. Am I interpreting something wrong?
I think the same. In severe deflation, asset correlations tend towards 1.
What a lovely humble guy
Nice earings x
Peter should not have any input on Bitcoin with his comment about it going to zero after Black Thursday’s dump. Respect the guy but talking with such conviction that it was done discredits him.
Great video. What is not said is what is the outcome of massive currency debasement? The dollar becomes worth less, it buys less at least locally. Make interest rates whatever you like the cost of living will rise substantially in the end.
Either wages rise or people get a lot poorer. Would this not lead to inflation or worse stagflation?
I would prefer to see a Williams%R, and a slow stochastic, to judge what is coming next.
@16:50 short squeeze you just describe the milkshake theory
What’s up with all the “no trespassing” signs on his wall? LOL.
Stephen Hyland AKA Mad mathematician That’s his no-no square
Maybe they’re from investments he got rid of, like ex-girlfriends 😂
Black neighbourhood?
Love the video! However, those earrings on Pete are just gaudy. lol
QE Infinity and Beyond said the Superhero at the FED !!!
The big crypto problem at this time is the market could drop with the Stock market or completely decouple. Hopefully with the lifting of restrictions the market will have a short term moon. So I have just bought back in even though a head and shoulders formation in Bitcoin looks as if it could play out with a fall. As they say if your not in it you will not win it, so I have some dry powder if the fall materializes.
People who are buying BTC now need to wait at least 3 years before seeing any "gain". There is no money left to play the "halvening" hype.
In any case, Bitcoin won't likely be any useful until another 5 years, and likely won't become a real store of value (i.e not tracking the stockmarket) until another 10-30 years.
H.o.d.l. so long as you are alive. :)
I was cash until the day after the low in March. I sold everything today, 2days late
Does Raoul own a now empty bar!?
The line patterns on my Etch-A-Sketch totally agree.
Love this video but half the time Peter sounds like he is yodeling.
risk of hyperinflation in the USD ? Gold-backed Chinese Crypto-RMB to be used with Belt and Road countries?
He seems like a really nice dude
When i look at the Bitcoin chart...i see a lot of empty space underneath that triangle.
The upcoming zoom up in PE ratios alone tells one a 50% haircut is ahead. Not real hard to see that approaching. if GE for example goes to 18 on the PE the stock will balance 50% lower to get back to 9.
Ya that really happened.
The real indicator of future conditions should 1st be viewed through the lens of global food production collapse at the hand of shifting weather patterns (not covid lock down).
these guys have never heard of the 3,000 traders working at the N.Y. FED called the "Plunge Protection Team", and 80% of all trading done by robots??
Bitcoin!
Peter is an excellent trader
Gold = fear of monetary implosion. Id love to sell at $2000. USD are getting tougher to get for most people in the world
This recorded at the Pinapple hotel with squidward?
Lol. That was funny....
There's a pineapple hotel in Brisbane LoL
My respect for this chanel just went down by a large amount, an interview with a leading horoscope writer on where we are going would provide an equal amount of value
Be kind. There are trying times of limited resources. >__
@@nachannachle2706 I have nothing personal against the guest, just his profession. The comment is about maintaining the integrity of the channel. I feel like I would be making the same comment if CZcams existed in the 1800’s and there was a medical channel I respected that all of sudden decided to do an episode with a phrenologist.
Seems to me we are seeing a blow off top in the dollar, the petrodollar system has been broken. There will be shrinking demand for USD in the future imo.
I dont see how it will retest or crash, too much smart or professional money setting up to buy more. There is no where else to put professional investir money, the pros only have us equitues with interest rates so low and infinity. Some gold and silver. But only a small percent of their portfolios.
There's still a creepy doll in the intro. What is the creepy chucky doll for?
did anybody notice the earrings or is it just me?
South american indian earrings :)
@@markod1719 Ha !
So they're not Bluetooth headphones ?
I'm from vsan Diego
looking around here in socal all i see is hustle and bustle. new housing project opened in banning last weekend they sold 24 units boom.
I wouldn't touch what Mr Brandt offers as advice with a 50m pole. He has made lots of random calls in BTC that never came to fruition, simply because he tries to reason with lines and candles for microscopes.
Nevermind that the Fed, Google, Blockstream and Chinese miners keep doing their own things and that this also affects crypto markets.
and the shorts get another pie in the face you mean. lol
Big fan of your channel, but I wait for David Stockman and Peter Schiff, put them together in your channel will grow like grazy
Michel van de Pol Schiff is a staunch (hyper)inflationist whereas Raoul is a deflationist. Don’t think they would get on well.