The Economic Undercurrent of a Rallying Stock Market (w/ Raoul Pal and Keith McCullough)
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- Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, shares his macro perspective with Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal in this wide-ranging discussion on investing in a perplexing market environment. They try to make sense of a buoyant stock market that seemingly contradicts the ominous economic indicators that ought to be curbing the market's growth. Keith explains his bearish outlook on China, while Raoul contends that widening credit spreads in the U.S. indicate that a market correction could be in order. You don't want to miss this interview. Filmed on November 12, 2019 in New York.
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The Economic Undercurrent of a Rallying Stock Market (w/ Raoul Pal and Keith McCullough)
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What these two are missing is the fact that the US is now an energy exporter, not quite to the level of Saudi, but once Natural Gas Exports are online we will be.
And how do the underlying economic fundamentals apply here, is that money not being spent inside the US?
Eu vou mudar de governo onde as pessoas para tirar Obama o shampoo e o pvou-me as forças com as vozes para nós tirar Obama e o tipo de governo colocarte conhecer alguém competência que pode governar no lugar do bar do Thiago você já presente para eu vou um dia se for sem voz para nós tirar Obama e o Tiago colocaestão conversando eles estão eles estão respondendo a forma criminosa contra as nações o escândalo que eles fazem eu vou ver as coisas com todos em voz para tirar o banco e o tipo de governo colocar eu soueu sou
So nice and refreshing to see two intelligent and likable gentlemen discuss without interruption. Thank you Real Vision for making these videos. Its currently my favorite channel on CZcams.
When you have almost perfect correlation between the fed’s ”non-QE” and the stockmarket upwards trend it becomes fairly obvious that it is not a healthy situation we are in.
The question for investors shouldn't be "is it healthy", but "how long will it last". If the Fed wants to prop up the market for another year or two, great - ride the wave as long as you can. If they are building a brittle house of cards in the process, that's less of our concern. You don't want to ride it down whether it's 30% or 70%. As citizens, sure, though, we should be concerned about the health of the economy.
@ACK Preacher 25% rise in assets last year is a little more than picking up nickels. Wouldn't be hard to see that again before the downturn. Are you going to leave that on the table to avoid the first 10% collaspe?
What if the plan is to show the ineffectiveness of the Fed to stave off these types of things and uses that to ditch the petro dollar? We make more oil than the Saudi’s now anyway.
I would be in the US stock market IF I knew when to get out. Since I have no clue when the bubble bursts (and believe it will go way down and fast) I stay in precious metals.
Erik F - Disagree, (respectfully) the health, wealth and well-being of the consumer is paramount to the 95%
The 5% will find a way of making money one way or another.
When 95% start to tighten their belts (either through loss of confidence or actual reality of loss of income) I find it impossible to imagine how anything/one in the 95% can prosper well, primarily due to state of mind.
When the next recession comes (assuming we ever came out of the last one) this will be the telling point, when most of the baby boomer savings have been used up, due to low interest rates and low returns, and the millennials have few jobs, and can’t buy property, couple that with despair in both camps, what is likely to be the result?!
(45 years in consumer sales and observation tells me that).
„Don’t try to push people into doing things they shouldn’t do.“ 👍
Everything has been said. The printing will start soon. Long silver and PM miners.
The car companies are advertising "employee pricing" again....the last time was during the recession
Erik F great observation.👍
Erik F this time it is because of Tesla
Two thumbs up! Love the candid perspective against a model that makes sense!
Thanks to both of these great guys and their excellent content!
I feel like I've been gambling in a casino and the house wins most of the time. In 2019, I'm in that same casino but when they didn't win, they changed the rules and took the money anyways.
So many Corporations rely on consumer spending, but stupidly, they do nothing to help the consumer. Where is that going to end?
Duh!
L N true but bailouts can help them
Couch Potatoes Kennedy - Agree, but that’s not growth or even sustainability. It’s just moving stuff from one pile to the other.
✌️
Couch Potatoes Kennedy True, basically the 1% is stealing money from the 99% via debt buildups.
L N your right but that’s how we got here in the first place . One example- Repeal of Glass - Steagall , just one of which led to out of control wealth inequality. You can’t sustain an economy that lopsided. ✌️
Mike exactly and it can’t be sustained
Could those coffee tables be any more precarious ?
LOL. I imagine if those things are ever knocked over, they would simply bounce back up again, but after leaving the cups and coffee on the floor.
I want one!
44 million fulltime workers make less than $ 18,000 yearly.
Hourly wages are stagnant, benefits falling.
BLOOMBERG BUSINESS REPORT
12-2019
Negative interest rates and printing money, no need to waste an hour
And share buybacks.
dont worry people arent really spending cuz we have no money to begin with
...and the people that have currency are saving it for retirement and some smart ones are trading it for gold.
Jehcbit yes and corporations get bailouts.
@@RR-js9kl No I am stacking skills to survive without it! seeds and food as well as shelter building skills ! Skills are more valuable than gold.
@@svetlanikolova7673 I am doing the same skills. Growing and raising food and trading for silver coins. Also stacking food and everything needed to survive including extra firewood and diesel for the tractor. Also guns and ammo and silver and gold coins.
Yeah right, meanwhile I can’t seem to wait less than an hour every time I want to go out to eat on the weekends.
Keith is a brilliant guy. His team’s work is top notch.
Brilliance is only brilliant If you choose to see the world that way. In the end Wall Street are speculators. It is no real brilliance
I am very concerned how far this thing falls when the fed pulls the QE and the market falls back to the latest support level. This channel is my new binge watch. Stick to the facts and present the data with experts who are not trying to pump their sector.
Proud to be a client of Hedgeye.
Still bearish...
Raul, i am from Australia and you didn't even discuss it. Could you give me your ideas on ozzie markets and especially real estate. Kyle bass was very bearish on ozzie real estate. What's your view. 👍
That intro was great ;-)
That was very Funny! Thanks for brightening my day.
Thank you McCullough!!!!
So many can learn from this interview and I’m not just saying the information that is spoken but how these men listen and share regardless if they agree with the other. Thanks for a great video.
The comment at 11:18 about not being able to buy a wash machine with 0% financing is not entirely true. There are several credit cards that not only offer 0% financing for 15mon, but a bonus/credit such as $225 on top of that -- all for a low amount of spend like 1k within the first 3mon. Be happy to share a link.
I just got a credit card offer for 0% financing for 21 months plus other goodies.
I like this guy. You skipped on Australian situation though, interesting stuff going on there.
Ok, handsome in the blue tie...you're about the brightest I've heard in a while. Thank you!
awesome conversation, you covered it all. cheers
Does Keith actually run money? If so, what is the name of his fund?
You skipped on Australia, was hoping to hear your opinion on that
*_( _**_0:07_**_ )_*
*_This made me laugh so loud in public,_* it was embarrassing
Great Video! I’ve found this one to be super informative. Keep it up guys
Great talk & views. Very high information density. Will need to watch it 3-4 times to get everything.
Ok puffy Chris Pine here was painting a sino centric picture of future market just couple of years ago. Glad he's came to his senses :)
HE SAID HE'S LONG ON COCOA!!!! hahahah
What is so funny about that?
I am long toilet paper and protein shakes.
@@brianmoran1196 Nothing wrong, just caught me by surprise
Two of my favorite financial people
Let's release this video2 months after filming because that makes sense
You can sign up and subscribe to get all their interviews when they are released.
Should you buy 30 year bonds?
What degree do you need to (and experience I know) do and know these guys do?
Please provide more insight into Canada and Australia.
Yes he said nothing about Australia???
Agreed!
Truly excellent and fascinating discussion. Will try to spread the word on this video. Engrossing.
Kieth is awesome! Super down to earth guy. Stay chill Raoul and Keith.
I have been long in cattle for years. I’m still poor.
Thank you, I really appreciate the wisdom and logic from both you gentlemen. We are in knee deep poopoo and I'm long on Ag
What if we dont get inflation but instead deflation like Japan? That would not be great for the gold price.
@@dpie4859 i see your point but ag is silver
very logical 🚧
Nov. 2007. Fed balance sheet was 50 Billion dollars and CNBC was on mute?
When I am watching this I know that "Infinity War" isn't most ambitious crossover.
“I’m long cattle for Gods sake Raoul, I mean, this is getting out there” - (4:51)
Roky Erickson rocks I have physical assets. Cattle,gold,silver,tools,lumber and all you need to survive. Lets trade and barter.
Excellent
What the f is going on indeed. Step lightly.
The great question of our time!
no mention of bitcoin or future currency
Thank you for a very informative, intelligent and highly intellectual discussion. So much data is fake and misleading.
Mr. President please (as much as I like you) tell us the TRUTH and stop tweeting daily nonsense about the mkt.
High quality content..as usual!!
Has it made you $$$
Those cups on those tables are a great sign of what is going on with the world economy
Great discussion
Love these guys. Very interesting.
Dollar milkshake guy called it several months ago.
Thanks men.
Bearish thesis has not played out in last ten years..may be 2020 could be different.
I played for the bear thesis in 2019 and did not do as well as I should have if I had just listened to the Fed and the market. If companies stay profitable and continue to do buy backs, and the Fed continue QE, then don't swim against the current (but maybe put a life jacket on your Amazon wish list for later...)
I see blue skies until the election and there's any risk of a regime change
@@Erikpdx yes bull market till elections..
My bet is end of March.
What the FED is going on? Bruce Dickinson "More Cowbell" and The Doors "This Is The End"
The grey suits you... :o)
this was the best. been trying to explain to my mom she needs to rearrange her portfolio but didn't know how to word it for her to understand. the first 20/25 minutes is what i was looking for. thank you😊
Fully loaded cowbell?
Yet, markets are up 4% (S&P) since this video - let’s continue being negative so when eventually markets crash we can say “I predicted this crash”
Yup, and all markets are "up" because 90% of them are trades made are ultrahigh speed trades by "AI" based algorithms designed to create activity to artificially inflate values and producing nothing...kinda like trading fiat currencies instead of actual value backed instruments (ie gold, food, lumber)...it's all a repeat of the housing market where actual "value" is ignored for the sake of unlimited gambling :)
I'm getting a bit jumpy though , it looks like a long way down from up here .
@Supreme Trader, we're just approaching the time period he was discussing, too early to make comments like that.
People should be genuinely scared for whats going to happen in the next decade.
Not scared. Respectful and rational. Noone needs to fear a crisis. Except for those unprepared. Unfortunately these will turn the crisis into a catastrophy.
They said the same thing last decade
Jack Black Cause it has been manipulated to the highest degree artificially and more so today.
Just keep preparing.
@@RR-js9kl how are you preparing
Facts: Greatest economy ever. employment all-time highs. CNBC says the consumer is healthy. low interest rates. Stock market never goes down. Fed cuts to support booming business. Stock buybacks.
That’s because this is nothing more than a Trump hate pep rally. A bunch of Fools wishing for the economy to tank.
Ha! first time to the the first comment:) I have nothing else to say other than I'm here to study:)
Nothing is wrong you see nothing moving right along
Already have my sell limits set on US30 and US100 at algo prices higher up.
'Clever Cycle Theory', everyone knows, everyone bets.
The 1% has to destroy the economy to stop Trump winning another term as President so I would not be surprised at them trying to destroy the economy before the presidential election !
Neither of these people have wiki pages and that's weird to me
Did these guys predict the 2008 mortgage collapse, nope.
Three years later it seems like Hedgeye and Real Vision are at two opposite corners.
21:21 Henry George was right... Again!
fantastic interview!
IT NEEDS A GOOD BUST...LOOKING FORWARD TO SHORT IT
You CAN get zero % financing on washing machines... for 18 months. This guy doesn't leave the office much.
These tweets will age just fine. You won’t however. Lol.
Wow, these two guys think very highly of themselves.
did those pants shrink in the dryer?
People like to wear fitted clothes, and sitting makes pants pull up. Go for the content and not the clothes.
Become independent from the Banksters, start using
SilverToken as your money. SilverToken is sound money that is fully exchangeable
for silver held in private vaults.
If only everybody could open like that?
Watch them food prices...
raoul where's your "doom loop" ??
Don't tea leaves work better?
Don't think I'm going to look for a bond market to take a long rest with a blanket called redundancy.
Should I start buying gold??
M D like there is no tomorrow. Yes. Trump is working to restore the fed and crash the banking system. Yes. He wants to restore the republic.
Gold and silver is real money and nothing else.
Does Amazon have two day shipping on gold? Until that happens you can tell the internet trolls to go back under the bridge they come from.
Jonathan Johnson Troll. Tell that to the exploding prices right now.
@@yogathan1 That would be a sell signal...
U mean obidens economy???? I thought it was so great
people are tapped this time....this will be the end of debt based society
What the F*** is going on?
Asked by Raul Pal in late 2019 :)
Strange question in August 2020.
Why do investors cheer when a company beats earnings in stock market? I mean it makes sense if company pay dividends. But why do stocks that doesn't pay dividents go up for a spectacular quarter?
I'm sorry if I'm asking a dumb question, but it just puzzles me.
So in summary there is a 50/50 split we head to depression 2.0, especially if the gap of income inequality expands
Also you should listen to the planet money npr podcast about subprime auto loans and repo guy interview. It then makes sense why they do so many more subprime loans now than 10 yrs ago because the risk of making the loan is so low when the car has a gps tracker chip and the repo guy can easily get the car back. The rates are over 20% so even if the person just pays 1 yr on it, the loan gets them lots of money plus a car that is just 1 yr older. (Usually was a used car already)
Absolutely, and they can write it down as a total or partial loss and then resell it overseas for almost as much as a new vehicle.
To answer the mysteries of the economy and America’s role, see CZcams- Peter Zeihan
FEDERAL RESERVE ARTIFICIALLY LOW INTEREST RATES are causing INFLATION OF THE STOCK MARKET.
The N in Damning is silent Keith
How many years would it take to create 500 billion dollars of Joe six pack dollars?
Raol and Real Vision have been predicting recession for so long that they will eventually be right!
Talk our problems first,chinos is not our broblemr
You guys should think about offering 4K video. Great stuff.