John Hussman: 'The Speculative Market Advance Since 2009 Ended Last Week', Stocks May Fall Up To 70%
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- čas přidán 26. 06. 2024
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There's an old saying on Wall Street that "no one rings a bell at the market top"
This is why so many surprised investors got so badly burned when the DotCom and 2008 stock bubbles burst.
But those who noticed the extreme market conditions beforehand, whose analysis of history convinced them that defense was more prudent than fear of missing out, these few avoided most of the losses -- and some even gained mightily from those crashes, having been positioned wisely in advance.
Today's guest is one of those who smartly navigated the past 2 great market corrections.
He now thinks we stand at the precipice of a 3rd -- and he's ringing a bell for anyone who will listen.
To hear why and what he advises we do about it, we have the great fortune to speak today with Dr John Hussman, founder of Hussman funds, economist, health scientist and philanthropist. He also plays a mean guitar.
John gives interviews very rarely. So it's a true privilege for Thoughtful Money that he's willing to give us the next hour of his time.
Follow John at www.hussmanfunds.com or on X/Twitter at @hussmanjp
#marketcrash #stockbubble #investing
_____________________________________________
Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor.
We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.
We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.
IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.
Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.
A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
IF YOU WANT TO SEE JOHN'S CHARTS in greater detail, read John's latest Market Commentary here www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc240623/
Thanks!
Why is there not even one single analyst talking about the risk that has been created by the Fed by keeping 300 year low interest rates for the past 15 years? (This has never been done before.) Not ONE single analyst has so much as even raised this issue?
Sorry, Adam, the chart I looked at is HSGFX. That's someone's life-savings he shamelessly loses, year in year out, by being unaccountably crap at his job.
@@boombustinvest Sounds like you have a podcast in you
The only chart I needed to see was that of his fund…going straight down for decades.
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 23k to a decent 119k$ in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Abby Joseph Cohen Service, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Been debt free for two years thanks to Abby Joseph Cohen Services.
Good woman she has been a blessing to me and my family
Been debt free for two years thanks to Abby Joseph Cohen Services.
I could really use some help here, as a meagre salary earner I need to try and earn more passive income
How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
John Hussman remains a voice of sanity in my opinion. Thank you Adam for bringing him in!
Voice of sanity yet is calling for the market to go down 50-70%?
@@user-fw2lk3sd3e Yes, you've grasped the obvious adroitly.
Adam, you should try to conceal your excitement when interviewing bears 😂
John is a class act, I've followed him for years, his cautious stance will be proven right, I think we are making a generational top here
I believe getting hold of John Husman was a major achievement for your program and a really great service to your subscriber and followers.
Thank you Adam for your hard and excellent work !!
Thank you!
“I’m not calling a top, I’m not, but we think this market looks a lot like 2000 and 2007.” Hmm, sounds like he’s calling a top.
Not exactly. All he's saying is that previous tops had similar conditions. There's a difference.
The market may continue to go up, if government keeps adding so much liquidity to the system. But we are in a bubble that will, at some point, have large losses. Go back and look at the GFC S&P topped at 1565 then fell to 676. Not a pleasant outcome, but we could see that again. What he is saying is: Look at the risk in your investments. How much might you lose? How much are you willing to lose. How do you minimize the loss?
It’s great to see so many derisive comments about this guest. The music will be stopping sooner than I expected.
Cool. When did you get out of the market? How will you know when to get back in? This guests investment returns over the last two decades have been embarrassingly awful, just in case he didn’t mention it in the interview.
@@SR-ob3wnTotally correct. But I have no reason to NOT believe his data and conclusions at the current time. I agree with his assessment that upside is quite limited and there is a very real chance outsized reversions may occur.
if there are derisive comments it could be because Wealthion and Stansberry and many others have been calling for a stock market crash for YEARS now. Maybe they got the narrative wrong. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
Hussman must be one of the most thoughtful, level headed people in the industry. Thanks for having him on!
One of favorite Wall Street phrases is “paper losses”
The other is “paper profits”
Unrealized Gains is perhaps the worst, as it feeds the former giving one a false sense of wealth.
Bill Gates retired off his paper profits. Heirs also receive a fictional stepped up basis from inherited property. My point is, the truly wealthy have assets that may never actualize a gain, yet their assets work for them in ways that increase their wealth without much effort. It's the ephemeral paper gains of volatile assets [*cough* GME *cough*] that yield a false perception not of wealth, but of purchasing power.
Hussman is the greatest. How nice to have him on. I love his newsletter and analysis and he is completely correct that the absurd valuations must normalize. It’s going to be a rough road ahead.
Rhetorical question: What is the future/new "normal"?
The Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund has returned 4.5% over the last 12 months vs 25.3% return for the S&P500. How does that make him anything close to being "the greatest"?
@@variousstuff6469 The reason Mr. Hussman takes time to speak about past performance is that his long term record in Strategic Return is abysmal. Look at the 10 or 15 yr return stream..
Or maybe there is a new way of determining the P in PE ratios like Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel have suggested.
20 trillion of QE in 2025 will assure no stock drops
In that case the value of the dollar will drop 70%.
I’m afraid the pig is in the fire.
🥩🥩🥩@@donjohnson6036
She's about to blow
💯 but the market always goes up. We may have a 1 or 2 or even 3 year downturn, but going long always wins. Maybe its different this time? Doubt it
In that case our purchasing power is cut by 50-70 percent and the gap between rich and poor would go to unbelievable margins and it might cause a revolt civil war and anarchy
My forecast. Dow $380 in 1929, 18 ounces of gold. Dow 2024, $38,000, 18 ounces of gold. Dow in the future, $380,000, 18 ounces of gold.
Dow $800 in 1980, 1 ounce of gold.
What was the Dow in ounces of gold in 1933?
@@IDNeon357 Three low points June 1932, 2.06 Feb 1933, 1.94 July 1934, 2.52.
Good as metric as any.
Thank-you for the great interview. Not too often that I appreciate a one hour interview that lasts over an hour and a half!
Adam, you have done more to educate the world about money and the economy than our global education systems ever did
Thank you for having John on as a guest, brilliant brilliant discussion
John Hussman is not alone. Felix Zulauf was Adam's guest last December when he predicted S&P500 to be 3000 in late summer '24.
And New Harbor predicted 1500 in 2023. 🤡
@SR-ob3wn the new harbor guys are hilariously detached from reality. It's like they haven't heard of the money printer.
@@HubertGeorge I can’t understand how any of these active advisors are still in business.
Thank you, Adam. I've followed Dr Hussman's commentary for some time, clearly grounded in agonizing detail, often beyond the reach of my left hemisphere. Started watching late, but hoping to hear how volcanic geopolitical events affect his outlook. A 50-70% asset price collapse seems almost rosy; 89% is not unthinkable.
HUSSMAN STRATEGIC TOTAL RETURN HSTRX If you own this fund of his, you've been missing out on HUGE gains....
His funds would probably be better if he just used SPY when his signals are bullish and Cash when they go negative. Rather than individual stocks and hedging
A lot of tech dropped 100-200% in 2022. 50-70 is conservative for overvalued companies
Of course, stocks COULD drop 50-70%. The relevant question is WILL they. The answer? Nobody knows. Nobody.
Most likely won't.
There are times past performance can be indicative of future results.
If you look at past markets those drops are often the case.
When you add in all the bubbles together and the economic dislocations and the potential black swans overhead if we get out with only a 50% loss we will be lucky.
We are at a multi generational place in history and I could be very bad.
@@danielturner9832 And likely they will continue to print $ longer
@@danielturner9832 Once again COULD. Market timing is a risky proposition. When do you get out? Where is the bottom? When to get back in? What if you get out, then you are wrong and the market never crashes?
@@SR-ob3wn It always mystifies why investors should be looking for get in/get out points. All that does is multiply the risk of doing something dumb. Buy what you want and ride out the bumps you know will come. Stocks go up, then go down, then go up higher, then down and then even higher. That's why long term investors do what they do. There's nothing hard to understand about that. No genius is required.
Nobody knows, but it's interesting to hear different perspectives on the market.
SIMPLE ...
50-year mortgages; Stocks splitting; more meds for all.
Fixes everything.
Not sure an additional 20 years is enough. Make it a 75 year mortgage.
That’s the plan Stan!!!!🎉
How about mortgage forgiveness. Its seems to work for student loans.
@@dr.johnnyfever9194 😆
This is the final boss of kicking the can down the road😂😂
Great guest! Positivity was through the roof. I felt uplifted towards the end of this intetview. This man is humble & I think he is in touch with mortality. What really does matter? 10% 20% 1000% returns doesnt come close to the present. What is your time worrh?
No one knows if bear market will happen, but valuations are extereme, leading economic indicators are flashing red, and Buffet is piling cash.
A bear market will happen, 100% No ifs. The question is, how soon?
@@bbdj2779 remember probability not certainty.
@@bbdj2779 right. this is like going to your doctor and she says "You are going to die". The real question is when
Buffet could have made lots more money employing more cash in this melt up.
@@mwilliamson4198 Correct. There is no “if” in that. Amusing how many here have convinced themselves that there is no chance of a market reversal. One of the signs of a top.
Awesome guest, great technical analysis. Bring him back ASAP.
Thanks John and Adam. Good to see and hear John 'in person', instead of just in printed commentary.
Sadly all the 401k people and pensions funds are stuck and unable to navigate this. I'm in cash and collecting interest and, yes, saving and stacking cash like a fiend. Been living this way for several years.
There is a reason patience is a virtue and greed is a sin. Being a debt slave / serf is no way to go through life, either but people want new, shiny over what they can really afford if they were honest.
And those 401k / IRA folks are part of the problem. They are in for a rude awakening.
IRAs are flexible, I changed mine to bond ETF.
I changed my 401K to Bonds. It’s still not risk free but I feel a hell of lot safer with 100% bonds right now than I do with 100% equities which is what I was doing. Moved over the minute S&P hit 5400 and started seeing all of the negative sentiment lately. Seems like a good call.
Sure but having too much in cash means you miss the melt up. That said I have made some bad mistakes with tech - especially with the tech wreck - but I have also made some decent returns participating in the momentum market.
Adam, good work thank you for this!
Phenomenal interview and interviewer, so helpful,thank you !
Another market crash video. I’m still waiting for the last 300 interviews to happen.
It’s amazing people still watch this trash.
You’ve been warned. And warned. And warned. 😂
Lol
The market is far closer to the top than bottom! Buy gold and wait for sanity to return! 😮
I don't think the dollar is ever going to gain purchasing power in terms of assets for long. Which is what a market crash implies.
These guys should go in more detail when they say stocks will crash 50-70% because small and mid caps are still down 50-90%. So are just the big caps crashing? Small cap coming up? Equaling out? Or are small and mid caps going to 1$? I’m pretty sure mag 7 and big caps may come down but I don’t see small caps coming down nor do I see large caps coming down 50-70% but if they do that sounds like a buy the dip 🤔
It's just not that simple. Looking at the example of the Dot Com crash, respectable companies like Cisco and Lucent became dead money, high flyers like JDS Uniphase and Global Crossing collapsed, and stoic companies like Apple and Amazon regrouped, pivoted, and came out swinging towards the end of the 2000s. Macro analysis can predict none of this, because the success or failure of any one company is too granular to be decided by macro trends.
Individual fundamental analysis will be needed to pick winners or losers. For those who don't recall the product called Value Line Investment Survey, they probably haven't developed the skill to do deep dives into companies prospects. But even Value Line came up with a score for the strength of a company that was a reasonably good indicator of whether a company could survive through multiple business cycles.
My God. 50 to 70% decline? The 2030s will be an interesting decade for sure. Thank you John Hussman.
Dear God, my eyes are glazing over.
Wow! What a session. Feels like I am attending the Econometrics Modeling class 29 yrs back. Only time will say which way the market will go, but I really enjoyed the session.
If you really want to enjoy a laugh, look at the charts of Hussman’s fund performance over the last 20 years!🤡
Obviously high expectations for this interview but you two knocked it out of the park - fantastic session! Thank you both.
So happy to see John Hussman on Thoughtful Money! Great show.
Great for comedy purposes!🤡
Thanks Adam for bringing John back.
Thanks Adam
An amazing man and an amazing interview ! Thanks!
Fantastic show! Love the humble presentation of data analysis by all 👌 👏
love hussmans work; and this channel really does attract alot of talent. great work adam !
Ever checked into how Hussman’s fund has performed?
I’ve been reading The Mandibles.. great book. It would be cool to see you interview the author.
Great interview. So much to think about I'm going to have to watch this twice.
Give his fund a looksie, very interesting performance over the last 10+ years.
Another brilliant guest that Adam brought to his channel..! Liked this informative conversation 👍
John is doing a great job on linking economics, finance and the stock market
Hey Adam, Is it possible to put up time stamps please. Brilliant interviews
With most money being digital, it doesn’t even have to be printed..!
The Man, The Myth, The Legend!!!! John Hussman!!!!!! Thank you for this treat Adam. Always keep it real sensei Hussman. We choose to be fools now. 😉
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Rose Strayer.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery
Glory to God shalom.
As long as the 401K target date fund flows are positive, price will go up. The moment those flows reverse, the whole thing collapses. Mike Green explains the Ponzi quite well. The "money" is trapped, so there is no way for those 401K owners to withdraw. They have "wealth" on paper only.
Awesome talk. Really!
John Hussman will be right. Although irrational exuberance isn’t there yet. This is pre game to the party.
Awesome Adam, ive never seen hussman in an interview, been reading his website since 2016. Hoping i can find some actionables from this smart but Permabear.
Cannot wait for everyone to go short or put on hedges after watching this interview, it will serve as fuel for a squeeze higher thru the summer. More vol will be supplied to meet all demands.
Charts are showing Nvidia about to go higher again, the question being whether it breaks the previous high. We have gold and silver charts looking mouth-watering for a rise within the coming 1-2 months, THEN we may have a larger pull-back pre-election and the September bears coming in, with a gold and silver pullback again. After that point, we see what happens in the macro medium term, but the short term will see plenty of volatility to make money (and sell positions too of course). I don't see an everything crash this calendar year, but certainly some harsh corrections. This is not a market for the average bear (no pun intended). You need rationality, a strong stomach, and above all to work with what the charts are telling you, not what is going to happen at some point soon (but soon is a relative concept). Are we in for uncertain global events coming up? YES. We have the blackout, we have a lot of money deployed to tech underway, a bounce in gold and silver to come this summer, and a summer high to come. After that is anyone's guess.
Amazing video to all involved!
Really appreciate John- one major question I’ve always wanted to ask is can he adjust his charts and research to reflect 1980’s or 1990’s inflation method calculations and what would be the impact? I suspect his research is heavily reliant on current gov inflation reporting.
Best take away from this is " choose your level of regret!"
Applies to everything.
Pascal's Wager for starters.
Thanks!
Wow - thank you very much!!
That's an easy question. Yes,the can and have in the past crash this hard. Sometimes even harder.
"Acceptable level of Regret", to me it's about setting a target and trying to hit that target. You aren't trying to chase the highest highs and avoid the lowest lows. Set a target and work towards that, if you have a higher risk appetite then maybe you have a 10-12% taget. I just don't like new terms, stay consistent, but definitely an interesting way to think of it. (great channel - and discussion)
Probably the most thoughtful bearish analysis I’ve heard yet.
Great interview 👍👍👍The remark of Dr. Hussman regarding inflation not going down during the first 12 monts of a recession is interesting !! Is that 12 months from the date that is set by the NBER or from the date that the NBER reports that date of the recession ? When they report the date, more than 12 months can have passed so that makes quite the difference. Have just subscribed to the newsletter and am interested in the updates !! 🙏
Folks have been sharing Hussman comments with me for decades. But when I look at his fund performance I see abysmal results. Am I missing something? I agree with John's thesis, but I just wonder why his analysis can't result in market outperformance over multiple market cycles.
Excellent
Everyone times the market to some extent, divided into two main groups: One group buys when funds become available and sells when funds are needed. The other group uses more sophisticated methods.
With every risk on, there is a corresponding risk off in the open exchanges. You could argue that one side or the other is engaging in risk arbitrage. Option sellers are probably the epitome of this, selling share price insurance as option premium.
This man is a Saint❤ Thank you for your honesty. Ive been getting the worst Fomo the last few months. Being diversified means playing both red & black.
Any thoughts on how algorithmic trading may impact market valuations and how past trends/considerations may be distorted? I guess I’m wondering if past performance may really not be indicative of future returns. My inclination is that bots care about getting money and not properly evaluating intrinsic value.
Historically bots have been fine in trading within one or two standard deviations, then blow chunks on long tail events. It was called program trading and portfolio insurance back in the 1990s, and resulted in big fails.
@1:18:40 -- Regarding John's observation that we've seen lots of stimulus, but little growth in productivity ...
... public debt targeted at consumption practically never increases productivity; the only thing it 'stimulates' in the long run is inflation.
Adam, have you had a guest on that has analyzed the supply of publicly traded stocks and the demand ( money available ) to pay for $1 of earnings. The universe of publicly available companies has been declining over time, many particularly big public companies are have been repurchasing their stock - these two factors result in less supply. Meanwhile, particularly since 2020 the amount of money pumped into the economy has created more demand / $ chasing a smaller pool of equity - so
stock prices & multiples have been going up. Is it possible that historic valuations aren’t the lens to view the current dynamics (all the $ pumped in since 2020) . With the historic money pump, Have we had a historic change in valuations?
Yes this absolutely correct the value of debt and credit is based on confidence.
John is a great guy but he has been wrong for a VERY long time...
So he’s the average Adam Taggert interviewee?
@@SR-ob3wn Exactly. Hasn't quite dawned on him yet that he could be fundamentally wrong about the markets. You might want to check out Raoul Pal and his everything code for another view. Also check out Brent Johnson and his theories. He has made a number of major correct calls re Dollar and equities over the past 5 years. Was there a "great reset" of some kind in 2008? Look at the DXY since 2008. If that's not a bullish trend I don't know what is. Could it really be the global liquidity runs the equity markets and not what this guest suggests?
What is the best way to avoid mediocrity in investing?
Do your own analysis, invest in what you know, and be patient for long term results. Amazon was dead money for its first decade as a public company. And even then really only got profitable when it leased its cloud servers through AWS that were originally developed for internal consumption.
My grandfather was a zoologist and anatomy professor, yet he left an estate that will take two generations to drain. As a grade schooler he showed me a prospectus for a utility company and said he invested in their preferred stock. It took me a few years to fully understand what he was saying, and a lifetime to emulate his example.
With Hussman, its like light the fuse, step back, and let him go...
Hussman + New Harbor= great listening
In terms of Hussman’s continual reference to psychology and sentiment, I would say reflect specifically on the volatility of these times. Wars, open borders, high cost of living, controversial elections; these times contain the elements where sentiment & psychology could turn on a dime. The potential for quickly changing sentiment negatively impacting markets is high.
New Harbor predicted the S&P would fall to 1500 in 2023. 🤡
Hello folks, just so you know there is no right or wrong in the way you trade or forsee the future direction of the financial market place, we can only trade and invest based on strict rules and you must have a system in place in order to succeed and beat the market.
May the markets be with you.
Forgot to add, push Adam’s channel to 100k 🎉🎉🎉
Have John on again and again.
If you bought at the highest price in 2000 2007 2022 and 2024 you are doing great today. My advice is try to buy at the worst price and you are golden.
Just dollar cost average into a 70/30 portfolio, when a correction comes, rebalance.
What are the chances that this guy has said this every year since 2009?
High. Very high.
Hell yeah.
"Valuations are very expensive in historical terms". So is the denominator (M2). You need normalize by M2 if you are to compare valuations across time. I am not sure stock valuations are that high.
When stock prices rise so high that net earnings could not pay back an investment within decades (rephrasing of Scott McNealy from Sun Microsystems), then they are too high. The money supply is a red herring, it just means that currency may try to find a home no matter the cost or risk. Reversion to the mean is a real thing, albeit it operates on its own time frame.
@@JScottHamilton the question is "reversion to WHICH mean"? You see, a mean makes sense if the denominator remains constant. However, if the denominator stretches, so does the mean. 13 P/E used to be the norm, but now it is 21. In the same way that an average mortgage used to be 10 years and now it is 30. All because the denominator has stretched out. I dont doubt that there might be a reversion to A mean, but I am skeptical that it will be the OLD mean we were used to.
@@HectorYague A ratio doesn't require a constant denominator, nor is a mean constant over time. I see too many investors who arbitrarily choose a mean spanning less than a decade, where Hussman appears to be operating on a multi-decade timeline.
For example many people will chose an arbitrary span for the S&P and say the average rate of return is somewhere between 7% and 9% (with reinvested dividends sometimes being the swing factor). If we go through a severe market correction, the mean rate of return I have heard for the following 10 years is between negative 5% and zero (different sources).
Does that mean somebody should expect a reversion to zero returns in the 2030s, 2040s, or 2050s should such an event occur? No! When you have a few years of front loading 10 years worth of earnings, as in the case of a market bubble, it may take a multigenerational time slice to calculate a reasonable mean to revert to over a few decades. The Japanese are the poster children for that case study.
HSGFX (his fund) - OUCH!!!
Awful!
It looks like one half of the Grand Canyon. What a joke!
This fund is a dead dog in the pond!
Morningstar rating: 1 star
Expense ratio: 1.2%!!!
Performance: -40% in the last ten years!
Underperformed the index by 4x!!
Holds 40% short term treasuries!!!
I wish somebody would pay me a 1.2% fee to hold short term treasuries for them!
he should just buy SPY when his model is pro market and just go to cash when model is negative market It looked like he would be killing the S&P index shown in one of the first charts
FOMOL is a new term. Fear of missing out on losses. Describes most bears at this point
I am cautious with calling a top, but nasdaq was down almost 280 points today from intraday top in volume.
The market downturn of unimaginable proportions will come from geopolitical consequences that leads to WWIII. How do you handicap such an event that seems unavoidable at this point in time?
It didn't happen in 1987, 2000, or 2008, and there is no reason to believe this time will be any different. The guest is just basically describing what reversion to the mean would look like should stocks drop to seek fair valuation. Nothing more catastrophic than a global liquidity event could trigger such a move, like what we saw in March/April 2020.
Im going to rely on adams notes on this one.
I’m old enough to remember when Wealth Harbor Financial predicted the S&P would drop to 1500 by the end of 2023 on this channel. 🤡🤡🤡
Yes, but they were right about the market going up this year. It's hard to always be right.
@@dustinhartlyn Which is why you should never put your money with an active advisor.
@@SR-ob3wn Im not, but it's a tough game for everyone. We will see who earns their wage in the next downturn.
@@dustinhartlynAnyone who is selling you their services based on their ability to predict the future is a charlatan and a con artist. Follow Jack Bogle’s advice, not clowns on CZcams.
Permanently elevated and continuously elevated PE/CAPE ratios brought on by ever-increasing debasement. As a young person wanting a generational buying opportunity, I wish he were right but I don’t think central banks will ever permit such a crash/devaluation to occur. The US government alone needs those tax receipts to mitigate the already insane debt levels thus its a matter of national security to keep assets permanently elevated. That and the wealth effect is the only keeping it consumption if only being done by the overwhelming minority.
TL;DR - feels like animal spirits are tied to QE and the anticipation if only by viewing where rates are versus Fed Funds which would imply QE will come and even if we have a recession, ever-larger QE will occur to support assets and the systems that are dependent upon elevated asset values namely government “funding” and consumption.
If you want to save an hour plus of your life, check out Hussman's track record. It'll be hard to find something that bad for that long.
Real GDP has been due to stock buybacks. Companies used to take the profits and reinvest in their communities and people.
Adam, Best interview so far. John is so articulate 👍🏽
Adam please get Ed Yardeni on your show to counter the bears !
John has destroyed a lot of capital, but I like him.
People who have followed John for longtime have lost lot of money or opportunities 😂
Well said. What’s happening feels so wrong and artificial. I’m still of the belief a reckoning is imminent. The timing is anyone’s guess..
I've only seen this guy's charts shown by people who get everything wrong. A broken clock waiting endless days to be right again.
Speaking of correlation, I have rarely intuitively believed an interviewee so much, but understood so little. So to resolve this, it's Au and Ag to put my tired head at rest.
Collars! Call-put skew is high, interest rate(rho) is high, ride the trend higher while acknowledging valuations don't make sense without realizing capital gains to pay taxes early.
I combine it with put calendar/ratio back spreads so if it does crash I make a small profit even. The implied vol is virtually free lunch.
@ 17:50 need to detrend that look at annual changes or something like that.
Human Present Moment Situational Analysis.
Always an excellent podcast. Intelligent and informative discussions. Subscribe if you haven't already!
I think Groucho Marx would do a better job of running a fund than Hussman.